Weak Data Out Of China and A Consolidation Of Major Gold Producers

January 14, 2019

Chris joins me today to comment on the weaker than expected data out of China and a consolidation of majors in the gold sector. Regarding the data, we continue to see poor data out of China which is making the overall investing environment a choppy affair. As for the gold market we now have Newmont and Goldcorp combining to form the largest gold company in the world. What is this saying about the overall gold sector?

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    Jan 14, 2019 14:22 AM
    Jan 14, 2019 14:34 AM

    The low for GDXJ today happened at 9 cents above the 200 week MA…

    Jan 14, 2019 14:43 AM

    Another great sign for the sector: Goldcorp breaks out on massive volume…

      Jan 14, 2019 14:58 AM


        Jan 14, 2019 14:22 PM

        It’s the largest volume in Goldcorp’s history.

        Jan 14, 2019 14:51 PM

        So Newmont’s volume was a 3.5 year record but it went the other way.

    Jan 14, 2019 14:45 AM
    Jan 14, 2019 14:09 AM

    It makes no sense that NEM is down 9% today. Yes, their number of shares will increase 55% to buy GG, but their reserves and resources will double. When PAAS tookover TAHO their price plunged at first until the market saw that it was a good deal for PAAS. I think this is a good day to buy NEM.

    Jan 14, 2019 14:25 AM

    Although it is obviously related, I would most strongly suggest that it is not debt that plagues society and growth, but THAT IT IS GOVERNMENT TAXATION that cripples growth.

    People that do not learn from history are usually going to repeat mistakes.
    LOOK AT countries and periods of time that have REAL GROWTH.
    and look at what causes growth to decrease.
    I would postulate, regardless of the country, regardless of the time period involved, it is almost always the heavy boot of government placed on the throat of free enterprise that causes a decrease in growth.
    Government can even get away with excessive spending and excessive debt for a period of time, but when it becomes necessary to pay for either the spending or the debt, or even simply the interest on the debt, that is when growth decreases.
    I would suggest that as Government expenditure exceeds something like 10% of GDP, whether it is today, in the middle ages or in Roman or Greek times, that is when the decrease in growth becomes both noticeable and measurable. Time and time again throughout history, often due to war, government spending goes up, growth slows, and eventually government spending has to slow back to its historic average of about 10% and growth picks up again.
    Historically government borrowing was only temporary and spending and taxation correlated directly.
    In the last fifty years or so, perhaps even one hundred years depending on the country, the correlation between spending and taxation is more blurred by borrowing, but when payment has to be made, growth slows.

    Jan 14, 2019 14:42 AM

    Many have looked at the Great Depression , starting 1928 and stated that the world only came out of the depression due to WWII.
    Certainly, no one can deny that vast production capacity, created during the war, but idle after the war, had substantial impact on the post war boom, but I would theorize to readers, that it was primarily the removal of FDR from control as the leader of the most productive economy in the world that was a significant part of post war growth. I would suggest that if FDR had not been disastrously in control of the US the depression would have ended long before WWII.

    Jan 14, 2019 14:20 PM

    Thanks Chris – You think this beef with China has more to do then just trade, like the militarization of the Sprately islands and its shipping lanes ?

      Jan 14, 2019 14:50 PM

      Yes, I’ve pointed out often how some around Trump want to use this trade war to knock China out of some military contention/ambition

    Jan 14, 2019 14:49 PM

    GDXJ looks better than GDX and that’s what the bulls want to see…

    Jan 14, 2019 14:01 PM

    The dollar might bounce versus gold in the short term but I bet it will be a feeble bounce (that arrow was drawn on Nov 14)…

    Jan 14, 2019 14:05 PM
    Jan 14, 2019 14:08 PM