Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 7 Feb, 2019

After the Fed Pause Look What Happened To Gold and Bonds

Craig Hemke joins me to outline what has happened in gold and bonds after the Fed went on pause. He takes a shot at me for being too pessimistic… Which I totally understand but we have been in a long drawn out bottoming process.

Click here to visit Craig’s site for more PM focused commentary.

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  1. On February 7, 2019 at 2:20 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    FWIW: Gann Global is still in a wait and see mode with PMs. They actually see a slight possibility that we could have a lower low in Gold and perhaps not finish that trend until a year from now. Not a pleasant video to watch.
    IMO it still depends on NY markets. If they stay elevated, we on pages such as this ought to go skiing and later get back into fishing.

  2. On February 7, 2019 at 2:29 pm,
    spanky says:

    Barring a 40 dollar collapse between now and next Friday, $gold should hold above $1270 through August.

    If it were to complete crap the bed next week, like say drop $60 or 70 by Friday close, all bets are off.

  3. On February 7, 2019 at 2:37 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    “Slight” is the key word………….Gann Report…….has all kinds of Predictions……and most have been faulty. or not come to pass……..just another guru, lost in high weeds….imo
    I think Matthew is closer in his predictions, than the historical record.
    Historical data…..going back 100 yrs……while under the control of the cabal…
    Gann report, is looking for something historical..but,,,,, we have nothing like what we have today..there never was QE ,and ZIRP.interest rates at zero, so how do you compare a
    historical chart to that.
    I going with Bob’s comment…..”nobody knows anything”.
    But, Bob, did mention he liked the Gann Report………Just saying.
    JMO………..with no facts……………………..LOL

    • On February 7, 2019 at 2:40 pm,
      OOTB Jerry, says:

      Gold will let go when , the London gig is up………..and everyone figures out…..the 500 to 1 paper gold , is not deliverable gold………….jmo

    • On February 7, 2019 at 2:49 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Charts are like a Ouija board, you never know where they will take you…….lol

    • On February 7, 2019 at 3:00 pm,
      spanky says:

      The biggest disconnect are commodities. They have been punished beyond the pale. And it looks like it is not over yet. Like I said a year or two ago, they could be basing for years and years yet–that is how much technical damage was inflicted on them between 2011 and 2015. They did an absolute number on the complex.

      I am going to go out on a very pessimistic limb and say that GCC won’t break above its 2016 peak until 2021 or later. At that point, you should have the 300 and 400 week MAs finally caught down to the range they have been trapped in for the last 3 years.

      • On February 7, 2019 at 3:12 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Obviously, gold has been punished, for a reason, which has been described a 1000 times, on the KER. …..So, your guess is as good as anyone’s

        • On February 7, 2019 at 3:15 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          London will tell you when and where…….putting gold in as a commodity is a JOKE…..
          Crimex, is alive and working well in the USof A…..

        • On February 7, 2019 at 3:15 pm,
          spanky says:

          Well gold has held up by far the best of an commodity over the last 20 years. And it is still spanking the Dow and S&P over that period too. So there is that.

          It’s just trying to speculate and actually get rich off of this god forsaken sector that gets you into trouble. gold itself is a completely different animal.

          • On February 7, 2019 at 3:25 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            spanky… do not have to convince me……..I am J the Long……..
            I mentioned years ago…… has returned over 9% , since 71……
            I am a LONG TERM HOLDER……

          • On February 7, 2019 at 3:28 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Hard to get rich, on something that is manipulated, ……by a small group of people., ie London sets the price……what a joke…..

          • On February 7, 2019 at 3:29 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            But, Long term….it will keep up with INFLATION>….

  4. On February 7, 2019 at 2:49 pm,
    spanky says:

    USD looks as bullish as can be on every time frame. It could be going a lot higher.

    It worked off a sky high MACD over the last few months by going sideways to slightly down. MACD is now back to neutral levels and is ready to make another run higher all while price has basically gone no where. That is textbook bullish consolidation.

  5. On February 7, 2019 at 3:08 pm,
    spanky says:

    If you were the Fed, an unauditable entity with unlimited funds, would you ever want commodities outperforming the stock market after having thrown everything and the kitchen sink to lift the market post 2008? Wouldn’t you just strategically sell the crap out of commodity futures or key currencies at inflection points in coordination with other central banks? The banksters know that if commodities run wild, the pitch forks and guillotines will be headed their way.

  6. On February 7, 2019 at 3:12 pm,
    spanky says:

    At this point I see my mining shares as nothing but long dated call options that could very well expire out of the money.

    I now find it impossible to see a world where they make consistently higher highs. I just don’t think it will be allowed to happen. I obviously know that some day they have to do that, but I just can’t see it.

  7. On February 7, 2019 at 3:15 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The XAU was already overbought when it reached obvious important downtrend resistance a week ago. So the struggle there since is no surprise. Under the circumstances, many bulls would have joined the bears in selling or at least delaying buying.

    • On February 7, 2019 at 3:24 pm,
      spanky says:

      In a vacuum, the gold and gold miners look fine.

      It’s just the silver miners, commodities and the USD that are strongly suggesting that optimism could be very misplaced. Even silver isn’t out of the woods yet, and given its tendency to track the larger commodity complex, it could head downhill in a flash. I don’t think this is at all going to play out like 2016. It already isn’t–the silver miners are telling us that. Maybe they make up all of the underperformance tomorrow by rocketing up 20%. Or more likely not.

      • On February 7, 2019 at 3:48 pm,
        Matthew says:

        If gold holds up, silver will hold up. Silver tracks gold much more closely than anything else.
        I agree that it won’t be a repeat of 2016; that was a once in a generation move – at best.

        Silver still looks better now than it did then.

  8. On February 7, 2019 at 3:20 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Gold looking good going into Friday……….China, will be off holiday, so the yanking around should be complete. But, with that said……….nobody knows anything, including me…lol

  9. On February 7, 2019 at 5:00 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

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  10. On February 7, 2019 at 5:57 pm,
    Chris says:

    OMG he was telling people to buy when gold was 1800 OZ, scammer!

  11. On February 8, 2019 at 6:32 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Oh My,………Cortez, and Montezoomy Nobrain, and she went to Boston College…..must have a lot of safe spaces in the dorm rooms at BC. What an Idiot………..

    • On February 8, 2019 at 6:35 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Someone said, she was thinking of running rail, to Hawaii ……..over the ocean….

      • On February 8, 2019 at 6:36 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Must be light rail,………lol…………lights out in her frontal cortex……

  12. On February 8, 2019 at 8:41 am,
    spanky says:

    UUP weekly bollinger bands are getting very narrow and will likely narrow even further. This is going to set up a massive move eventually, up or down. It may take 6 months to ultimately play out, but a massive move is coming within that time frame I am guessing. For example, price may drift upwards for 6 months in a narrow range before reversing lower.

  13. On February 8, 2019 at 8:51 am,
    spanky says:

    The slv:$spx and gld:$spx daily charts are looking good so far today.

    Gld:$spx managed to pop back into the cloud today after falling beneath it days ago. Let’s hope that it can hold there into the close. It’s a positive sign for sure so far. Hope I haven’t jinxed it.

  14. On February 8, 2019 at 8:53 am,
    spanky says:

    I think silver’s fate hinges entirely on the SLV:GLD ratio holding up over the next couple of weeks. I don’t even care if silver goes down in absolute terms as long as it doesn’t go down as much as gold.

  15. On February 8, 2019 at 9:05 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX hangs onto its daily chart “buy” after backtesting fork resistance-turned-support…

  16. On February 8, 2019 at 9:25 am,
    spanky says:

    I am probably not going to rest easy until SLV breaks through its weekly Ichimoku cloud. Once it does that I will feel much more confident that it is in a strong bull trend.

    It’s possible gold trends sideways for a long time above its weekly cloud while silver trends below its cloud. I really hope that is not how this plays out.

  17. On February 8, 2019 at 9:31 am,
    spanky says:

    Using 60,3,6 parameters for the weekly stochastics suggests that gold and especially silver and silver miners have the potential to run higher yet. Especially silver and silver miners. while using those parameters doesn’t give you much sense of direction week to week (you could conceivably get 4 down weeks in a row for example and still have the stochastics pointed up), it does give you a sense of the overall trend and the potential to keep running higher.

    • On February 8, 2019 at 9:36 am,
      spanky says:

      The $XAU weekly stochastics using these parameters looks especially convincing that a very very significant low was struck in September ’18.

    • On February 8, 2019 at 9:49 am,
      Matthew says:

      My three stochastics suggest the same thing…

    • On February 8, 2019 at 10:13 am,
      Matthew says:

      Btw & fwiw, a comparison:
      (Your 60,3,6 is new to me and might be better in other ways.)