Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 11 Feb, 2019

A Focus On The USD and The Impact On Broader Markets

Doc is with us today to focus on the move up in the USD today. A number of different factors are helping to drive the dollar higher however they are not the good factors. We point to the other markets that will be impacted due to the higher dollar.

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  1. On February 11, 2019 at 12:40 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On February 11, 2019 at 12:41 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Italy’s populist de facto leader Matteo Salvini seems set on shaking Europe’s financial establishment to the core.

      One day after the Italian deputy prime minister and leader of the League party, called for the elimination of Italy’s central bank and the country’s financial regulator, Consob, saying the two institutions should be “reduced to zero, more than changing one or two people, reduced to zero”, or in other words eliminated, and that “fraudsters” who inflicted losses on Italian savers should “end up in prison for a long time”, Salvini prompted fresh shocked gasps in Brussels and Frankfurt when he raised the possibility of seizing Italy’s massive gold reserves away from the country’s central bank.

  2. On February 11, 2019 at 1:28 pm,
    spanky says:

    tomorrow is a pivotal day for silver. Frankly, being the pessimist that I am, I see it breaking down, likely hard, along with commodities and the yen. I hope I am wrong.

  3. On February 11, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
    spanky says:

    GCC could be in for a big drop tomorrow. Ugly black candle printed today. There is also one on the weekly chart from December that strongly suggests at least a retest of the low from 2016 and quite possibly a new 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50+ year low. Should be glorious. Powell is laughing all the way to the bank.

  4. On February 11, 2019 at 6:50 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    You guys are right. IT won’t be a deep recession. The lowest the SPX will be is about 2100-2200. Then BOOM!! Up it goes!!

    • On February 12, 2019 at 8:42 am,
      spanky says:

      2100? It probably won’t go below 2600 for at least another year at this point. The Fed put is official Fed policy now.

  5. On February 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm,
    traveler says:

    DXY is topped as is UJ. Don’t fall for the hype…99% of people are wrong on this trade. buy silver in bulk

  6. On February 12, 2019 at 8:00 am,
    spanky says:

    Another bad looking candle for GCC so far today. I’m not sure how high it will bounce, but it looks like a no-brainer short on any strength, as much as it pains me to say it.

    The real value of the Dow continues moonward. If Powell wasn’t 100% sure of the dollar’s direction post-FOMC he would have never thrown the markets such a ridiculous bone. He knew he was having his cake and eating it too.

    There really hasn’t even been a real countertrend rally in GCC. It’s been down, down, down for coming up on 9 years. At some point it will obviously have to bottom, but I personally believe commodities are under total control by world central banks still.

    If GCC has another large leg down, you can bet oil will follow within 6 months.

  7. On February 12, 2019 at 8:38 am,
    spanky says:

    $SPX has a window through the end of March where it could break down. If it makes it into April at or above 2700, it will not be looking very promising for the bears at all.

    Even if it were to eventually roll over prior to making a new all time high, it will take its sweet time doing so (probably most of 2019). Given what the Fed did in January, does anyone really believe the markets will be allowed to make a lower low? I’ll bet when a trade deal is announced, world CBs will take the opportunity to juice the hell of markets. I am just too cynical.

  8. On February 12, 2019 at 9:19 am,
    spanky says:

    watch them slam $hui below the 200 and 50 dmas before the 50 dma has a chance to make a positive cross. Would be classic.

  9. On February 12, 2019 at 9:23 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT is up and well-bid this week even though silver is down. That’s a good sign. Now we need a weekly close above .40…

    • On February 12, 2019 at 9:30 am,
      spanky says:

      IPT.V daily chart looks good.

      ISVLF OTOH put in two black candles in a row prior to today on the daily chart. Yes, it is extremely illiquid, and IPT.V should be the thing that controls in terms of technicals, but it still bothers me.

      • On February 12, 2019 at 9:37 am,
        spanky says:

        I’m probably jinxing AXU, but it also has held up like a champ and of course the last couple of weeks have been extremely strong. Who knows though. The weekly Ichimoku cloud for most silver miners including IPT, doesn’t look especially vulnerable to a breakout until April-May. Under a conservative interpretation, IPT won’t be able to bust through 40 cents until May.

        • On February 12, 2019 at 9:53 am,
          Matthew says:

          These things are the call options of the sector so this strength in the face a pullback in the metals is very positive.
          I’ll guess no later than early March for .40 IPT.

          • On February 12, 2019 at 10:23 am,
            spanky says:

            It might be able to hit 40 cents or even slightly exceed that level, but it probably won’t be for long if it occurs in March, IMO.

  10. On February 12, 2019 at 9:27 am,
    spanky says:

    $XJY (yen) right at the lower border of cloud support on the daily chart today. It’s also tagging the 50 dma, which has positively crossed the 200 dma. One would normally expect a bounce here.

    If it does bounce here, there is a tiny blip in the cloud on March 7 that could be vulnerable to a price break down. Other than that, it should be flat at worst through March based on the cloud.

  11. On February 12, 2019 at 9:28 am,
    Matthew says:

    BBB phase transition:
    Today’s spike is a sign of things to come.

  12. On February 12, 2019 at 10:38 am,
    spanky says:

    Anyone know why AUY is down 5% today?

  13. On February 12, 2019 at 10:50 am,
    spanky says:

    slv:$spx has broken below cloud support on the daily chart. Not looking good. Stock market is set to outperform metals for at least 2 months IMO.

    • On February 12, 2019 at 10:56 am,
      spanky says:

      Sorry, meant to say 1 month.

      • On February 12, 2019 at 10:57 am,
        spanky says:

        I would say the 100 dma is the logical next target on slv:$spx.

  14. On February 12, 2019 at 11:02 am,
    spanky says:

    Dow up 400 pts. December never happened.

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