A New Guest David Brady – Some Valuable Insights Into The Gold Market
I am happy to introduce a brand new guest to the show, David Brady. I have been following David’s work over on Twitter (@GlobalProTrader) and recently signed up for his website. We get a brief introduction to the Global Pro Traders website as well as David’s background in managing money. We then get into an in depth discussion on the gold market and what David sees as the major drivers moving forward.
Click here to visit the Global Pro Traders website and contact me if you want David and I to look at any certain markets .
Here is the entire interview…….https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/cbs-news-chief-policital-correspondent-breaks-ranks-admits-journalists-are-now
David if the Fed raises rates does that drive gold down? Then after Fed has to rescue stock mkt then gold will take off. When do you see gold price in 2 years? Thanks
Anybody’s guess……because that is exactly what it is WAG……
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-20/lets-face-it-us-constitution-has-failed
2. The nation’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, has the power to debauch the nation’s currency and reward the wealthy via issuing new currency and buying Treasury bonds in whatever sums it deems necessary at the moment. The Fed is only nominally under the control of the elected government. It is in effect an independent state-within-a-state that dominates the financial well-being of the entire nation.
Joke……
Elections provide the bread-and-circuses staged drama that is passed off as democracy. The key goal of the corporate/state media coverage, of course, is to foster the illusion that elections really, really, really matter, when the reality is they don’t. The National Security State grinds on, the Federal Reserve grinds on and the dominance of corporate-wealth elites grinds on regardless of who’s in office.
The sheeple are delusional………
The society is completely corrupt. Corruption is systemic and people don’t even recognize it as corruption.
DITTO…………….
A judge ruled Thursday that federal prosecutors — among them, U.S. Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta — broke federal law when they signed a plea agreement with a wealthy, politically connected sex trafficker and concealed it from more than 30 of his underage victims.
U.S. District Judge Kenneth A. Marra, in a 33-page opinion, said that the evidence he reviewed showed that Jeffrey Epstein had been operating an international sex operation in which he and others recruited underage girls — not only in Florida — but from overseas, in violation of federal law.
“Epstein used paid employees to find and bring minor girls to him.,’’ wrote Marra, who is based in Palm Beach County. “Epstein worked in concert with others to obtain minors not only for his own sexual gratification, but also for the sexual gratification of others.’’
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article226577419.html
Of course they did……….Figure out who runs the justice department, and for who.
And of course, they will continue to break the supposed laws for the connected.
Presidential pardons……the King sets the rule. BAR LAW….
People should not complain, until they figure out the PRETEND LAW….
I was blind, but now I see…..Amazing ….
Thanks to some friends…….. 🙂
Zero rates for Gen.Z……will be next………
Let’s see, housing crash, auto crash……bomb busting in air, gave proof through the nightmare, that our flag was still there….LOL
This guess speaker is saying the same thing I have been saying for a long time….
Hello OWL…………..
Gold should have blown through $1350 , ……what a joke…..back and fill
There were a lot of traders and pundits saying $1350 was a resistance level, and people placed their shorts positions there, so pulling back from $1349 was not a surprise. However, it may just be a shallow dip before another rip higher.
I don’t care much about $1350 or $1360 or these round psychological numbers, but rather am much more keen to see if Gold can finally take out its 2016 high of $1377.50 and finally make a higher high. That is what really matters, as an impulse leg has to make a higher high.
Gold tried to break through in this key level in 2017 but petered out at $1362.40 and then tried again in 2018 but lost steam at $1369.40. While the 2018 peak took out the 2017 peak, neither had enough juice to take out the 2016 surge high at $1377.50.
Gold clearly put in it’s major bottom (to any rationale person that knows how to read a price off a chart) in December 2015 at $1045.40.
In the last 3 years Gold and never went lower than $1045.40 or came close to that level again, and has put in a few higher lows, on the sideways grind higher since then.
From Dec 2015 to August 2016, Gold surged up through many key resistance levels, prior peaks & troughs, and key moving averages that hadn’t been surpassed in years. Dead cat bounces just don’t do that, so everyone calling it a “suckers rally” ended up being the suckers, and the garbage doom many churned out warning for the bottom to drop out didn’t do anyone any favors. People rip on investors with a bullish thesis all the time, but there is a place to call out the wacked out haters for completely blowing their calls the last few years. News flash to those folks: Gold never made a new low in the last 3 years.
We’ve dealt with the nonsense from people about Gold was “still been in a bear market” or in a 7-8 year bear market — WTF? (even though Gold has been $200-$300 higher than it’s low at $1045.40 for most of the last 3 years).
We’ve heard the garbage warnings about Gold sinking below $1000 into the $900-$700 range the last few years as well, and it was complete horse dung….. Gold never even got close or even made a new low. Why do those folks even get an audience where if they were correct they’d have shorted the crap out of gold at $1045.40 and lost their shirts the last few years.
Instead there have been a few good rallies in Gold, followed by corrective moves down to higher lows, then another rally, then another corrective move down to a higher low, and recently another rally. If anything Gold has been knocking on the high side of it’s range, not the other way around.
Gold has everything going for it to break through $1377.50 (the line in the sand and the 2016 high and highest peak since leaving $1045.40 behind off it’s major bottom).
Until Gold can take out that level, then a new impulse leg can’t be confirmed, and we can’t send the do-do bird haters from the last few years into the dustbin of history for their wrong-sided approach this entire time Gold has been trending higher the last few years.
Nothing is guaranteed, but the odd of Gold punching through that level (only $40 from where it is currently) are much higher than Gold diving down to a new low. If/When Gold makes a new high, then many funds and generalist watching from the sidelines, disinterested the last few years, would sit up and take notice and that would bring new money into a tiny sector that would respond accordingly.
Ever Upward!
Ex, $1,360 gold matters because it would represent a sort of “stealth” breakout if we close the month there. The highest monthly close of the last 5 years+ was $1,357.90.
I’ve seen closing breakouts “predict” absolute breakouts too many times to count and monthly closes are important ones.
Matthew – That is a good point on the monthly charts and to signify a higher monthly close at anything over that $1357.90 would be a very good longer term signal.
My main point was that if Gold breaks above the daily and weekly $1377.50 surge high from the initial 2016 move off the bottom, putting in a higher high, then it would be an impulse leg that exceeds that prior peak. It would put to rest all the nonsensical statements that Gold has been in a bear market or ready to dive down to new lows that we’ve heard the last 2 1/2 years. Taking out the 2016 high and making a new high new, would prove definitively that the new bull market did start off the double-bottom in Gold in Dec of 2015 and is continuing on it’s next wave higher.
It would also be an easy signal for casual observers in the generalist community and larger funds to take note of as well.
I’m all for higher highs (and higher lows) whether they be on the monthly, weekly, or daily as that basic price signal shows the trend in bullish motion.
Ex, we might want to “put to rest all the nonsensical statements that Gold has been in a bear market” as late as possible for the health of the bull market that we know we have.
(Only slightly kidding.)
True, it’s more constructive for things to keep creeping higher and higher before people catch on more and momentum players come into the space. Still, we’ve been waiting a long time, and my allocations to Gold and Silver are mostly in place, so a rip your face off rally later this year won’t hurt my feelings any. 🙂
The biggest, smartest money can very nicely mark-up the entire sector well before the herd knows what’s going on. 🧐
Ditto on that one…..
Ex and Matthew – Great thoughts from both of you. Looking forward to the big wave that is approaching. Any pearls of wisdom on any stocks you are stalking that have not broken out yet would be much appreciated. Matthew – Thanks for the lead on Brixton. It seems to be kicking into gear. I am guessing that is one of the reasons you are not down more today!
Charles, despite the difficulties that Jaguar Mining has had lately, I still consider it very much a worthwhile speculation and am still a buyer. However, I would recommend that you avoid it if you do not think gold is going to move into a trading range above 1,400.
I am also still buying Kootenay Silver and even Brixton. I don’t hesitate to do a little chasing as they move off the launch pad when the weekly charts show so much room to run.
NGD is a brand new holding for me this week since it offers so much leverage at the current price.
I have also been buying UEX lately.
I have to add that NGD looks like it could test its low soon.
Matthew, I’m sure Doc will join me in welcoming you aboard the NGD cruise to the Emerald City.
Cool. Thanks. Bonzo I know you and Doc are a big fan of NGD. I have that one on my list to look at.
I agree that (JAG) Jaguar is a great optionality play on higher gold prices, but despite their production miss and rough 4th quarter, they’ve actually had a lot of successful new exploration / mine expansion / and they are now working with a new team on mine optimization at Turmalina which will bring down costs to make them more attractive even if Gold prices stay where they are.
JAG is one of the 3 stocks I selected for the stock picking contest in 2019 at ceo because I believe as the year progresses and they get 1-2 more quarters of improved production metrics on the books and more exploration results come in, that they’ll have a lot of upside potential from currently levels.
This statement from a recent 4th quarter release summarizes things well for JAG:
Mr. Guenther concluded, “In 2018 we did see an improvement in our cost performance and Pilar delivered strong production of over 40,000 ounces. Consolidated cash costs improved 14% to approximately $732 per ounce, in line with cost guidance reflecting a 34% decrease in cash costs at Pilar to approximately $702 per ounce. The new Turmalina management team is in place and energized as it implements the turnaround plan. Management and the Board are focused on addressing the issues at Turmalina and Pilar to stabilize our production profile. We are also prioritizing cost containment and operational execution across the organization to ensure continued lower costs and operating cash flow generation. We have made good progress on exploration initiatives to ensure sustainable production and expect to update our Mineral Reserves and Resources by the end of the first quarter of 2019.”
Thanks Charles and yes I’m looking forward to the next wave higher as well.
As for stocks I hold dozens of miners across various stages of the mining cycle in a few different commodities (Gold, Silver, Zinc/Lead, Copper, PGMs, Uranium, Lithium).
There are stocks that have had nice moves off their Dec tax loss selling lows already like K92 Mining, Impact, Alexco, Excellon, etc…. but those stocks still have much further to go to the upside.
I also own Brixton mentioned above but consider it more a gold play now than Silver, and they’ve changed focus so many times changing their flagship 3 different times before now focusing on Atlin that I’m less impressed with them than in the past, and made some money on them back in 2016 when they were more focused on the Silver and Cobalt camp and Thorn in BC, versus the Hog Heaven and Atlin Gold chapters, but hopefully they hit big on Atlin and it comes back up some.
I also like Kootenay Silver and have a small position in it for exploration upside and as they make progress with their partners on the development side of things, but feel there are a few others in the Silver space that may be more attractive at a similar stage like Metallic Minerals (Alexco’s neighbor headed by Greg Johnson that used to be the geo over at Wellgreen Platinum), Dolly Varden exploring for Silver around a large historic deposit in BC with Gary Cope at the helm, and I still believe Bayhorse Silver may surprise folks as they continue expanding their production using ore sorting and dense media separation to upgrade their ore before shipping and getting rid of 80% waste rock at the mine site, and they have other properties to develop and explore worth watching.
Here’s a list of the Silver companies I’m currently holding Producers/Developers/Explorers:
> Silver Stocks
First Majestic Silver
Americas Silver Corp
Silvercorp Metals Inc
Endeavour Silver
Excellon Resource Inc
Avino Silver & Gold Mines
Impact Silver Corp
Santacruz Silver
Bayhorse Silver
Alexco Resource Corp
Metallic Minerals
Dolly Varden Silver
Kootenay Silver Inc
Orex Minerals Inc
AbraPlata Resource Corp
Klondike Silver
In the Zinc space I still like the odds of some depressed development stage companies like Tinka, Vendetta, ZincX Resources, Heron Resources, Foran Mining, etc… to stage comebacks. Fireweed is a solid exploration company with advanced exploration deposits and resources as well.
I actually just pulled the trigger on the Jr Zinc producer, Trevali (Glencore’s mini-me love child) as their selloff has gotten way overdone and they have 4 mines and will have good torque to any rebound in Zinc/Lead/Silver prices.
Cheers!
If you want a few more Silver rabbit holes to go down, I’m following these others closely and may swap a few of these in place of AbraPlata, Orex, or Klondike Silver currently on my list that are just lifeless.
More Silver Juniors (many I’ve owned and traded out of on prior rallies but may reposition in):
*Silvercrest Metals
*Defiance Silver
*GoGold Resources
*Southern Silver
*Silver Bear Resources
*Bitterroot Resources
*Silver Bull Resources
*Aurcana
*Bunker Hill mining
*Blind Creek Resources
*Golden Goliath
*Minco Silver
*Hunt Mining Corp
*New Pacific Metals
*Levon Resources
Golden Minerals
Santana Minerals
Silver Spruce Resources
Golden Arrow Resources
Bear Creek Mining Corp
Silver Mines Ltd
Prospero Silver
Oceanus Resources
Azure Minerals
Even though they operate in China, it is clear that (SVM) Silvercorp is still fiscally one of the best run Silver companies with the lowest cost profile, so its one of the few I’ve owned where they continue to make money mining (what a novel concept). 😉
Over time, when more eyeballs are on the Silver sector, larger funds and investors that parse the financials may appreciate this trend and track record so I expect it to move with a good torque for a producer.
____________________________________________________________________
(SVM) Silvercorp Reports Q3 Net Income of $8.7 Million, $0.05 per Share, and Provides Fiscal 2020 Production and Cash Costs Guidance
February 14, 2019
Q3 FISCAL YEAR 2019 HIGHLIGHTS
– Ore mined up 3% to 260,278 tonnes compared to the prior year quarter;
– Sold approximately 1.7 million ounces of silver, 1,100 ounces of gold, and 17.8 million pounds of lead, up 13%, 57%, and 13%, respectively, compared to the prior year quarter while zinc sold was 4.1 million pounds, down 36% compared to the prior year quarter.
– Ended the quarter with inventories of 4,211 tonnes of silver-lead concentrate (containing approximately 0.4 million ounces of silver and 4.4 million pounds of lead) and 3,079 tonnes of zinc concentrate (containing approximately 3.1 million pounds of zinc), up 13% and 415%, respectively, compared to September 30, 2018;
Sales of $42.4 million, down 5% compared to $44.4 million in the prior year quarter;
– Paid $1.7 million withholding tax at a rate of 10% for dividends distributed out of China to the Company, compared to $nil in the prior year quarter;
– Gross profit margin of 46% compared to 52% in the prior year quarter, with the decrease mainly due to lower metal prices;
– Net income attributable to equity shareholders of $8.7 million, or $0.05 per share, compared to $12.7 million, or $0.08 per share, in the prior year quarter;
– Cash flow from operations of $19.5 million, compared to $27.5 million in the prior year quarter;
– Cash cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of negative $2.77, compared to negative $5.92 in the prior year quarter;
-All-in sustaining cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of $6.53, compared to $3.16 in the prior year quarter;
– Paid $2.1 million dividends to the Company’s shareholders; and,
>> Ended the quarter with $125.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, an increase of $1.3 million or 1% compared to September 30, 2018.
http://silvercorpmetals.com/news_and_media/news/index.php?content_id=753
Also, while most miners are blowing out more shares and getting bloated, diluting down existing shareholders, (SVM) is doing the opposite and buying back shares reducing the float and adding shareholder value. The stock has woken up lately as a result.
_________________________________________
Silvercorp Announces Share Repurchase Program
by @nasdaq on February 20, 2019
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silvercorp-announces-share-repurchase-program
(AG) (FR) First Majestic Silver At The Verge Of A Giant Breakout
Taki Tsaklanos 2 days ago
https://investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/first-majestic-silver-giant-breakout/
Northstar – Twitter feed
“Silver is at a hugely important point right here. The outcome of this bull/bear battle is likely to determine the direction of the silver market for a long time to come #GOLD #Silver #PMS”
(see the attached chart)
https://twitter.com/Northst18363337/status/1098568890731376641
This gentleman is a breath of fresh air, Cory. Thanks for putting him on the show.
I like agree with his reasoning as to why certain central banks are buying gold. Because of a ‘reset in global finances and the effects on the $$’. Also believe he has it right with his hawks vs doves in the FMOC. They really must get rates higher; they’re problem is how to do it. Thanks again.
Yes, his fundamental thinking was quite interesting.
Tuesday’s big gap in the miners and gold’s overbought readings has understandably enticed traders to sell…
http://schrts.co/REaZiJPr
It will be a very bullish sign if they fail to get the gap filled. Either way, the pullback is a buying opportunity for those who are “light” in their exposure to the sector (in my opinion!).
Off topic: U breakout…
http://schrts.co/iSKmzxjh
Bought some UUUU earlier this week. Looks to be close to breaking out. I was in and out of the stock once during 2018. Hoping for a similar result.
Uranium has had a few rallies now off the 2016 low, and double bottom in 2017, and the miners rallied for a few months in splendid fashion the last few years. Great tradable rallies but folks weren’t rewarded as much for just buying and holding as there were a few pop n drops, before the next rally. Overall things have been on an uptrend with many Uranium miners since 2016 but the big moves still lie ahead.
UUUU is a very solid US producer from both in-situ and hard rock sources (when the prices are higher). I’ve been a fan of URG for years as well and done well with it because they’ve been producing some lower cost insitu, but more importantly have bought most of their Uranium to fulfill longer term contracts selling at $50 by purchasing spot uranium at $21-$25 the last few years and generating a considerable profit on those transactions.
PEN.AX is another smaller Aussie company operating in the US producing with in-situ mining.
UEC, DNN, AZZ and AEC are nearer term developers with a shorter ramp to production that other explorers due to infrastructure they have in place.
NXE, is a world class advanced exploration asset going into development, near FCU and PTU (whose also been on a tear lately)
UEX, AL, SYH are good explorers to review as well in the U space.
Uranium going up, because someone told Hilly ,,,Mueller whats his cut of the u one deal….lol
whats to wants……
Lara Logan tells ‘Hannity’ about rampant liberal, anti-Trump bias across news media:
‘Nobody owns me’Former CBS News foreign correspondent Lara Logan appeared on Fox News’ “Hannity” on Wednesday night to speak about what she claims is a rampant liberal and anti-Trump bias across the news media, but she proclaimed she is independent from the political spectrum.
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/lara-logan-on-rampant-liberal-anti-trump-bias-across-news-media-nobody-owns-me