Jordan Roy-Byrne - Techncial Commentary – Thu 7 Mar, 2019

The Monthly Charts Are Still A Concern For The Precious Metals

Although gold had a nice run there is still a concern that that monthly chart put in another lower high. What is even more concerning is the silver and GDX charts that are still in downtrends ever since the bounce in 2016. Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares his thoughts on what the longer term charts are showing us.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

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  1. On March 7, 2019 at 6:25 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Silver $14.98….showing at kitco……..What a joke…..

  2. On March 7, 2019 at 6:26 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    $14.96…….going , going……

  3. On March 7, 2019 at 6:41 am,
    Paul says:

    Jordan do you see a cup and handle forming in gold charts? Looks like this down turn is forming handle.

  4. On March 7, 2019 at 7:07 am,
    larry says:

    /ES target for friday or monday is still 2710….NYSE now approaching oversold minus 150 level…A spot where bottoms may form…..

  5. On March 7, 2019 at 7:10 am,
    larry says:

    Sorry above note -150 on NYSE Advance/Decline Oscillator , standard

  6. On March 7, 2019 at 7:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    On March 6, 2019 at 1:59 pm,
    rawiron1 says:
    Attention GOLDBUGS! I just went LONG JDST and DUST.

    I will 3x your losses into MY profits!

    Thank me very much!

    On March 6, 2019 at 7:41 pm,
    Matthew says:
    Looking at the 1 and 2 hour GLD and UUP charts, I don’t think your odds are great in the short term.

    • On March 7, 2019 at 7:17 am,
      Matthew says:

      rawiron 1 was down almost 4% this morning unless he bailed quickly…

      • On March 8, 2019 at 7:15 am,
        Matthew says:

        JDST losses since yesterday’s open have reached almost 13%.

  7. On March 7, 2019 at 8:25 am,
    larry says:

    /ES for me the question is does it retrace back to 2770 first before a move to support at 2710…..i think a bounce first…so, i sold my spxs….cash…this not an armagedon move and as such expect dip buyers along the way

  8. On March 7, 2019 at 10:15 am,
    b says:

    A bounce from here to 1360-70 would be better than just moving lower from here.
    I agree. lol

    Moving down from here all the way to the doldrums is not out of the question.

    Will feel better if we call it trading sideways or consolidation.

    Silvr, ugly,ugly,ugly….did jpmorgan get it wrong? or did they put the hoard together to keep everyone supplied? No shortage anywhere, everyone getting what they order.
    All demand supplied.

    Wont be long and asteroids and the moon will be mined, lots of supply on the market when that happens, endless supply to be honust.

    • On March 7, 2019 at 10:19 am,
      david says:

      Think JPM can keep the derivative cost of mining silver on moon under $15?

  9. On March 7, 2019 at 10:43 am,
    b says:

    Think they can figure out or release the Tesla info? about energy.

    All Im getting at is the bugs keep going on about shortages etc, when investors should be simply looking at supply and demand.

    and ALL demand has is being met by available supply, has for the 15? years I’ve been following.
    Has is being supplied AT THESE PRICES.

  10. On March 7, 2019 at 5:05 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The bears don’t have much going for them when it comes to the weekly GDX chart:

    • On March 8, 2019 at 5:00 am,
      Excelsior says:

      For all the handwringing that GDX and the miners are so weak, compared to Gold, it does look like miners just broke out of that descending wedge to the upside and are just consolidating here.

      Also, I’m not sure I followed Jordan’s analysis about gold also making lower highs. He used the $1392 peak from 2014 (?) which is important resistance for Gold to take out after teh 2016 high of $1377.50, but it isn’t how one should measure this breakout as a peak, since Gold didn’t bottom since Dec of 2015.

      Really since the Major low at $1045.40 Gold has been nowhere close that level again since then for 3 years but has been $200-$300 higher than that in a new uptrend.

      The lows have been higher each time, and the highs have been staggered. $1377.50, $1362, $1369. The recent high right around $1349 may not be the end of this run if we get the Spring fling rally.

      Even though he scoffs at Seasonality – it has been freakin’ textbook. Gold put in it’s low in early August at the end of the Summer Doldrums, rallied, then pulled back a bit for year end tax loss/Fed babble rate hikes, then powered up during the Q1 Run and now pulled back for the PDAC curse. This happens every single year, and is FAR more accurate than his analogs or overly complex analysis has been.

      Seasonality is a pattern that doesn’t have specific price targets, but it is the trading trend where the money flows go…. And it’s worked 5-6 years in a row (with 2016 being an outlier year for a few things because it was a sea change).

      Gold and Silver and the miners surge out of year end weakness into Q1 strength, then pullback right before or after PDAC in late Feb / early March, then rally again before pausing sideways to down in the Summer Doldrums.

      We very well may have one leg higher in the PMs after this corrective move to gather more strength plays out over the next few weeks. I’m looking to late March – early May as a window where Gold could have enough juice to make a run at that key resistance at $1377.50 (the 2016 high).

      Gold has continued to bump it’s head on the ceiling, but since Dec 2015 it has been in an uptrend, with higher lows, and nowhere close to a downtrend. This isn’t rocket science but you do have to read a chart correctly, and bringing in 2014 numbers during the bear market to make a case the metals have been in a downtrend all this time is simply wrong.

      One starts to measure the new impulse leg higher at a Major low — in this case, Dec of 2015. That is where the bear market in Gold from 2011 to 2015 ends, and the new bull begins. The initial impulse leg higher in the 2016 surge took out many key prior peaks and key moving averages & trend-lines, and rallied through the PDAC curse and summer doldrums, proving it was a new bull market starting.

      • On March 8, 2019 at 6:41 am,
        Matthew says:

        On Feb. 28 when gold was around 1320, I said that the worst case was probably 1280.
        It bottomed at 1280.80 yesterday…

        • On March 8, 2019 at 7:01 am,
          Charles says:

          Looking more and more like a correction of an overbought condition that has now run it’s course.

          • On March 8, 2019 at 7:13 am,
            Matthew says:

            Probably so and I’m glad today’s big gap in the miners is getting filled right away…

        • On March 8, 2019 at 7:18 am,
          Charles says:

          Looking good. What about SILJ?

          • On March 8, 2019 at 7:41 am,
            Matthew says:

            It looks fine to me and was up as much as 3.3% this morning.

          • On March 8, 2019 at 7:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            I agree with Stewart:

            Silver can outperform gold without leading it. What I mean by that statement is that gold can be the first metal to make a new intermediate trend high, but the percentage gains for that move are bigger for silver. When silver leads gold, the market tends to be more speculative and that’s not healthy.

          • On March 8, 2019 at 7:52 am,
            Matthew says:

            As of yesterday, SLV:GLD has filled its massive 12/26 gap so that “magnet” is gone…

          • On March 8, 2019 at 8:04 am,
            Charles says:

            Looks good so far. Hopefully it will end strong to end the week.

          • On March 8, 2019 at 8:10 am,
            Matthew says:

            SLV:GLD weekly:

  11. On March 8, 2019 at 6:01 am,
    Charles says:

    Nice jobs number this morning. 20K actual versus 180K estimate. Gold and Silver are flying. It will be interesting to see the open.