Weekend Show – Sat 23 Mar, 2019

Hour 1 – The Environment Where Central Banks Are Scared

It was another interesting Fed meeting and statement that caused some serious volatility in the markets to end the week. No doubt a risk off trade has developed as yields fell hard around the world. Be sure to go back through the week and listen to some of the daily editorials posted post-Fed. There’s a lot of good information.

  • Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx shares his thoughts on the Fed statement and situation that the central banks are in. Interest rates are historically low, and even negative in many countries, but the global economy continues to slow.
  • Segment 2 – Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders has some thoughts on how far the market could breakdown.
  • Segment 3 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group weighs in on the precious metals markets and when he sees a recession hitting the US.
  • Segment 4 – We get an update from IsoEnergy and the President and CEO Craig Parry. IsoEnergy has been drilling some good exploration holes and looking to continue stepping out through the year. Click here to visit the IsoEnergy website.

Marc Chandler
Chris Vermeulen
Jeff Christian
Craig Parry – IsoEnergy
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Comments:
  1. On March 23, 2019 at 4:54 am,
    CFS says:
    • On March 23, 2019 at 5:32 am,
      CFS says:

      Ira’s Weekly Metals:
      https://youtu.be/MaEpAifHkf0?t=12

    • On March 23, 2019 at 8:54 am,
      Ebolan says:

      Bookvar

      • On March 23, 2019 at 8:54 am,
        Ebolan says:

        Sorry, Boockvar

  2. On March 23, 2019 at 5:30 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Take Five: Take it easy, central banks – World markets themes for the week ahead

    March 22, 2019

    1/ TAKE IT EASY

    With the U.S. Federal Reserve well and truly doubling down on its dovish guidance this month, the global rate hiking cycle is at an end.

    2/ DEADLINES, RED LINES

    “March 29 is when Britain was supposed to leave the European Union, 2-1/2-years after a slender majority voted to leave the bloc. EU leaders have now granted Prime Minister Theresa May a two-week reprieve, during which she must persuade lawmakers to accept the divorce deal she has negotiated. ”

    3/ GLASS QUARTER FULL

    “Back in January, the U.S. Federal Reserve fired up investors’ appetite for risk by pledging to be patient with future rate rises. In March it sealed that promise by doubling down on its dovish stance and scaling back projected 2019 interest-rate increases to zero. The result: a 10 percent-plus bounce on global stocks in the January-March period. ”

    4/EURO GLOOM TO BOOM — OR DOOM

    “Despite a strong rally across markets this year, European equities remain one of the most disliked regions in the world. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly fund manager survey confirmed that view, with investors naming “short” European equities as the most crowded trade for the first time.”

    5/YUAN: STRONG AND STABLE

    “Chinese markets aren’t abandoning hopes that authorities may soon relax trading rules for the yuan. Beijing and Washington are locked in heated discussions on a deal to end their trade war and President Donald Trump hopes to extract a commitment to yuan stability. The Chinese have other compulsions.”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-themes-graphic/take-five-take-it-easy-central-banks-world-market-themes-for-the-week-ahead-idUKKCN1R321G

  3. On March 23, 2019 at 7:13 am,
    CFS says:

    Jim Willie on the Fed, gold trade note.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrLAViEXvCk

    • On March 23, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:

      So Bush & Clinton did the Tungsten conversion at the 35:00 min mark

  4. On March 23, 2019 at 9:25 am,
    irishtony says:

    Whats everyones take on gold becoming a tier 1 asset , next week under Basel 3 . Anyone think we will get an uptick in the price of gold. ?…

  5. On March 23, 2019 at 9:51 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    The guest this week on Macro Voices gets into MMT and the possibility of it’s appearance in the near future. His thoughts may surprise you. They also go over negative interest rates. Good listen: https://www.macrovoices.com/

  6. On March 23, 2019 at 11:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    WCU: Gold Lifted by Fed Doves While Oil Pauses

    2019-03-22 – Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy

    https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/03/22/wcu-gold-lifted-by-fed-dove-while-oil-pauses

  7. On March 23, 2019 at 11:57 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold & Silver Price Update+ Federal Reserve Not All Powerful

    iGold Adviser – Christopher Aaron – March 20, 2019 #VIDEO

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL2le7iB_TU

    • On March 23, 2019 at 11:59 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Worldwide Major Central Banks are Accumulating Their Gold Holdings

      Gary Wagner – March 22, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #Video

      https://thegoldforecast.com/video/worldwide-major-central-banks-are-accumulating-their-gold-holdings

    • On March 23, 2019 at 4:49 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Economic Alpha Interview: His Favorite Stocks & How He Separates The Wheat From The Chaff In The Mining Sector

      by @Goldfinger on March 21, 2019

      > Goldfinger: “Another challenging aspect of the mining sector is that there are so many different angles to analyze the sector from and everything matters (macro trends such as the gold price, and micro stock specific analysis such as the jurisdiction of a company’s projects). It’s important to have some knowledge and understanding of all the factors that can potentially impact a mining company, however, it’s also important to have some expertise in a couple areas that can set ones analysis apart from the crowd (such as economic geology, mine engineering, or financial accounting expertise).”

      >> Economic Alpha: “Personally the way I’ve always looked at mining stocks is before you get into any deep due diligence eliminate the price of gold and what it may or may not do in the future. That will remove presumed internal gold bias out of the equation. Then, I think it’s important to evaluate all the risks up front. So before you get into any further due diligence you want to A) Eliminate the price of gold in your analysis or use realistic prices B) Evaluate all the potential risks up front.”

      “I think if you approach mining investments in this manner you will be leaps and bounds above everyone else. So many people like to use extremely high gold price forecasts in their analysis, however, at the end of the day in my world a mining company is selling a product at a margin and it’s the margin that matters. If that margin is great today imagine at higher gold prices? They could be selling boxes, envelopes, whatever. It just so happens that they’re producing gold and we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the point of the business is to make money, not produce the most gold.”

      https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/economic-alpha-interview-his-favorite-stocks-how-he-separates-the-wheat-from-the-chaff-in-the-mining-sector

      • On March 24, 2019 at 5:27 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Nice interview………regret I didn’t buy Atlantic when I first started hearing about it…..goldfinger is an anomaly on the ceo stockpickers contest. Most of the top pickers are loaded with pot stocks.

        • On March 24, 2019 at 6:13 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. Atlantic Gold has executed nicely over the last 2 years, and I considered it a few times, but never pulled the trigger. However, like Wesdome and Kirkland Lake that also had huge runs the last 2 years, they are all getting to be fully valued and I don’t see nearly as much upside left in them as many of their more beat up peers.

          Yes, Goldfinger has done well in this year’s stock pick, but he has a big audience of follower, and when made the move on Westhaven last year, speculators flocked into it, and they delivered with their drill bit. This year his pick AMX Amex Exploration was quite speculative and ran up to be a 15-bagger and then has started to pull back. Whether it can keep it’s momentum going for the balance of the year and keep running higher remains to be seen. We’ve see dozens and dozens of exploration plays run 10x, 15x, 20x, the last few years only to do a return trip right back down again as a pop-n-drop.

          Yes, most of the yigh flyers in the stocks this year were Pot stocks and then the recent surge in Macarthur Minerals (more so for their Iron Ore than their Lithium, but with some interest in their conglomerate Gold). They’re too unfocused for my tastes, and it remains to be seen if this recent speculation about Glencore wanting their Iron ore pans out.

          The year isn’t over yet, and if Gold breaks out, and drags Silver and the mining stocks up higher as they play catch up, then things will look much different at year end.

          • On March 24, 2019 at 6:27 am,
            Excelsior says:

            So far after all the hype in exploration stocks over the last few years 2017, 2018, and 2019, it has just been a mob of speculative money deal-jumping from one narrative to the next.

            Most of these parabolic moves witnessed in hyped up exploration drill plays got way ahead of themselves on some soil samples and initial discovery holes, fueled by newsletter writers spin and mining blog threads piling on in FOMO.

            The harsh reality is that most of these grassroots explorers have much more work to do to even come close to warranting the market caps they have reached so quickly.

            Having said that, the only company that seems to have held onto it’s gains, and may actually have a real discovery and potentially economic deposit is Great Bear (GBR). It’s share price increase and continued successful drill campaigns actually make sense, but it’s already climbed up 8x and has a $118 Million market cap, so it needs to digest how much it already has grown for a while.

          • On March 24, 2019 at 6:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Obviously when momentum gets going to the upside on emotionally fueled speculation these little micro-cap stocks can just blow through any levels imagined for short time periods, but I’d rather see real opportunities in successful companies that are steady climbers like: Kirkland Lake, Atlantic Gold, Wesdome, K92 Mining, etc…. where it is clear to see the quarter over quarter improvement and delivering on their milestones.

            For explorers there are a rare few that do this like Silvercrest Metals (SIL). They have made a steady climb higher in valuation by continuing to delivery over and over and they’ve already got a successful track record and proved they built up an economic deposit that was sold to First Majestic a few years back.

            Most of these exploration plays get way ahead of themselves when they start getting into the $60Million – $200 Million market cap range and just have a few dozen holes drills. When their greenfields exploration valuations eclipse genuine Development-stage companies with proven assets, or Producers that are actually mining and producing raw materials, then wise investors would pull their profits and go look for the next hot narrative, or would place some of the profits into real companies that produce Gold/Silver/Copper/Zinc or that have a development deposit that the big boys will want to eventually buy out.

    • On March 24, 2019 at 2:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Resource Stocks Could Get a Bump from Donald Trump: Matt Geiger

      SmallCapPower – Mar 20, 2019

      “In this interview from the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC) 2019, SmallCapPower spoke with Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital, which is an investment fund focused on natural resources. Matt Geiger says their portfolio is largely focused on junior resource stocks, with a small percentage allotted to farm land, water, forestry, and aquaculture investments. He also talks about the current bear market in the mining industry, the new positions his fund is adopting, and how mining investors should pick investments during this period.”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qj33hiUOVU

      • On March 24, 2019 at 4:31 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Having been a part of this industry for almost 40 years, my only complaint about these conferences is that all the “experts” simply talk their own book.

        • On March 24, 2019 at 6:55 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Of course they do Big Al, because they have money on the line based on their unique investing thesis. I like hearing why they are talking their book from a certain line of thinking, and what their supporting evidence is for holding such a thesis.

          Obviously, it all should be taken with a grain of salt, and everyone must do their own due diligence and make their own decisions in the end.

          Matt’s a solid guy though, and I’ve listened to him in about a dozen interviews and read some of his research, and it is always interesting to get a range of perspectives in such a small niche of the investing universe.

          • On March 24, 2019 at 10:26 pm,
            Big Al says:

            If it were possible, a person should look the Portfolios; option positions; and potential fee structures which the “experts” hold. You would also be amazed to learn just how many private placements they have invested in. More often than not it is a no lose situation for the particular “expert”.

            Notice that I have never recommended a company that I happen to be the Secretary of. I also paid for every single share of my stock and I was not in on the initial financing.Gotta have morals, my friend!

          • On March 25, 2019 at 5:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Big Al – you are a scholar and a gentlemen and the world would be a better place if more people had a better moral compass.

            Yes, many get in on sweetheart deals with private placements & warrants attached after the dilution has happened on a capital raise. Then these promoters blow out their shares several months later on any uptick at a profit, while holding the free warrants for the long game at minimal risk. Most investors don’t have those advantages, so they should take what the pundits, officers, newsletter writers, and fund managers say with a grain of salt.

            Still I believe we can learn from everyone and many of them still do great research on various sectors or companies.

  8. On March 23, 2019 at 12:48 pm,
    CFS says:
  9. On March 23, 2019 at 2:46 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Anaconda Mining is starting to get attention as it’s volume is improving, I’m thinking of add-ons early next week. DT

    • On March 24, 2019 at 3:35 pm,
      Charles says:

      Hi DT – I saw the volume last Wednesday and purchased more on Thursday morning on the pullback. Seems like it might be overdone based on Friday’s run. However, it faded into the close which I didn’t like to end the week. Watching closely. Glad to see your thoughts.

      • On March 24, 2019 at 7:06 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The team at Anaconda is one of the few in the overly cluttered universe of jr mining stocks, that continues to deliver on their guidance and milestones for both their production and exploration work.

        I made good money trading them in 2017, and repurchased a position back in 2018 the dipped down after they didn’t get to acquire Maritime, but I grabbed more in late December tax loss selling and feel good about what they have lined up for 2019 and moving into the next 2 years.

  10. On March 23, 2019 at 2:57 pm,
    CFS says:
  11. On March 23, 2019 at 9:58 pm,
    CFS says:

    Greg Hunter talks with Jim Rickards:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zX59jl_OkM

  12. On March 24, 2019 at 3:29 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Basel Committee Sets out Guidelines for Banks Intending to Enter Crypto Market

    https://news.bitcoin.com/basel-committee-sets-out-guidelines-for-banks-intending-to-enter-crypto-market/