Hour 1 – The Key Factors To Drive Market and Metals In Q2
We are now making the turn to Q2. In this hour we discuss the set up for the risk on and risk off trade that has dominated in Q1. Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 – Fund manager Dana Lyons kicks off the show with a look into the US markets and the fact that volatility remains high.
- Segment 2 – David Brady, President of Global Pro Traders is back and has a warning for those in risk on assets. It’s all about liquidity and as we start next week there could be a serious shortage of cash flowing into stocks. Click here to visit the Global Pro Traders website.
- Segment 3 – Lobo Tiggre, Editor of the Independent Speculator shares his thoughts on why China is key to future metals moves.
- Segment 4 – We get an update on Auryn Resources from the Executive Chairman Ivan Bebek. After just closing an oversubscribed placement we hear how this money will be spent exploring in Peru.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Goldplay Exploration – A Dive Into The Presentation
- Great Bear Exploration – Looking At The Overall Scale Of The Dixie Lake Project
- New Dimension Resources – Trenching and New Target Updates
- Palamina Corp – Updating The Investor Interest In Peru and Current Work Plans
Lobo Tiggre is correct in China’s long range intention.
I do not believe China is the weak spot in the world’s economy.
It seems to me the next crisis will be initiated by excessive debt.
Debt at all levels is a problem; at the national level, at the corporate level, and also for individuals. As long as interest rates are kept low, these debts will be manageable……until they aren’t.
Bitcoin Black Update 3-29-19
Your 9000 coin airdrop has been distributed on the beta net.You are among the first users of the BCB platform. Windows and Linux desktop users are encouraged to download the beta wallet and begin to make transactions to test the network.
https://bitcoin.black/betanet-wallets/
Phone a friend on the other side of the world and make a transaction to them or send coins to yourself.The more activity on beta net the faster we move to main net.
Don’t be afraid to send and spend your coins.9000 coins ($90) will be redistributed to you on the main net as you are one of the first users of the platform.
Please note: Multiple 9000 airdrops may come to your beta net wallet as further testing of automated airdrop is taking place. If you entered your seed in the airdrop form rather than your bcb wallet address there will be a delay in receiving your coins.
Here’s a good read for those depressed PM believers. Bad week but there’s always something positive if one looks enough. I’m partial to Tanashian so others may see this article differently.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1553875871.php
The week certainly had a bad patina but gold finished down 1.05% while GDX slipped just 1.58%. Real bearishness typically puts GDX down 3 times as much as gold or more.
In my juniors, I saw a complete lack of smart/big money selling and total volume was mostly unimpressive.
On a distinctly positive note, GDX closed Q1 well above the 20 quarter MA envelope for the first time in 9 months while that MA is no longer falling (for the first time in 6 years).
GDX also sports a new monthly MACD buy signal (first in 3 years) and remains on a weekly one. The quarterly MACD buy happened 2.5 years ago and has only improved.
Those are big picture considerations but new monthly MACD buy signals tend bring in new big money buying.
The weekly chart is mixed but the bulls have the edge.
http://schrts.co/PgcejeMy
A Command Economy in the command of the Central Banks…
By: Clive Maund – 29 March 2019
Russia Is Dumping U.S. Dollars to Hoard Gold
March 28, 2019 – Andrey Biryukov , Rupert Rowling , and Yuliya Fedorinova
“For Russia, experts are starting to question whether it can afford to keep up its intense pace of buying. Some say the country will import more gold to guard against geopolitical shocks and the threat of tougher U.S. sanctions as relations between the two powers continue to deteriorate. Gold buying last year exceeded mine supply for the first time. Still, others argue that Russia’s bullion demand is set to slow.”
“Should it reach the limit for domestic purchases, I think the central bank will start to import gold,” said Oleg Kouzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow and former adviser in the central bank’s Monetary Policy Department. Given the geopolitical risks, it’s likely the central bank will keep increasing gold’s share of reserves, he said.”
I believe that the President of Otis Gold stated that, “on the record” just a few weeks back.
Yes sir, but this was just more confirmation and I liked some of the metrics in the article:
KEYS STATS ABOUT RUSSIA’S GOLD BUYING
– The central bank bought 274 tons of bullion last year, according to the World Gold Council.
– That’s worth more than $11 billion at average prices.
– Russia accounts for 40% of central bank gold buying and 6% of global demand.
– Gold accounts for about 19% of Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves, the highest level since 2000.
– Dollars represent 22% of the reserves, down from 46% in mid-2017.
Of course everyone like those numbers. But, I would say don’t hold your breath for a resurgence right now.
Big Al – I’m not holding my breath on any particular outcome – that’s for sure.
It is notable that Central Banks, like Russia’s, are still buying Gold (not Oil, Coal, Crypto, or Beanie Babies) as a store of value and alternative currency. As long as central banks are buying Gold, it is clear the tradition for thousands of years the Precious Metals have held in ones portfolio, is still well intact.
Countries must seek ECB approval to manage gold reserves: Draghi
March 28, 2019 – Reuters
“The European Central Bank needs to approve any operation in the foreign reserves of euro zone countries, including gold and large foreign currency holdings, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi said on Thursday.”
theses guidelines of European Central Bank regarding gold have been in place for a while now.
Trump’s Trade War With China Determines Future For Metals
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
“The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is a major factor in setting metals prices,” said Gwen Preston of Resource Maven.
“Gold does well if we get a trade deal. Base metals do well if we get a trade deal. If we don’t get a trade deal, base metals, unfortunately, despite these very strong supply-demand fundamentals, would get denied their chance,” Preston told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Metals Investor Forum.”
This Star Metal Has The Best Long-Term Potential – Eric Coffin
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
“On a demand-supply fundamentals viewpoint, copper has the best potential to outperform on a medium to long-term basis, said Eric Coffin, editor of HRA Advisories. ”
“Copper is the star for me, it’s the one I have the most comfort with [on] the supply and demand situation,” Coffin told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Metals Investor Forum in Toronto. “But if you look at the medium-long term on copper, the supply-demand situation looks fantastic if you’re an investor. There simply is not enough in the pipeline.”
“Gold Price Is Getting Ready To Make Big Jump” – Greg McCoach
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
“History repeats itself, said Greg McCoach of The Mining Speculator. The last time we saw merger mania similar to what is happening today was in the early 2000s, and that episode was followed by a gold bull run.”
“This is very similar to me, the merger mania that happened in 2000. The dollar was starting to roll over, have problems, the merger mania was going on and all of a sudden we went on one of the best bull market runs in my career as a newsletter writer from 2003 to 2007,” McCoach told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Metals Investor Forum in Toronto.
Mining Sector: Will We Have A “Famine” Or “Feast”? – John Kaiser
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
“The mining space will not be facing a major bull rally, or “feast” soon, but an inflection point is coming for gold,” said John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online.
“I think we are in the middle of a turning point, the beginning of what will be a revival of interest in the junior resource sector, and there’s not going to be any glorious trigger. I do think that gold is going to develop a subtle uptrend and the key inflection will be when it goes through that 2016 high of $1,370 or thereabouts,” Kaiser told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Metals Investor Forum in Toronto.
This Is How A Pro Picks Mining Stocks – Brent Cook
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
Investors, take notes – Brent Cook of Exploration Insights, a seasoned geologist with decades of experience in the field, breaks down aspects of mining companies to focus on when picking stocks.
“You need someone you can talk to, or trust…first thing we look at when a good hole comes out, what’s the metallurgy?” Cook told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Metals Investor Forum in Toronto.
Sibanye Says Uncertainty Halts South Africa Capital Spending
By Felix Njini – March 27, 2019
“It’s difficult to convince shareholders that South African mining is an investment case,” Chief Executive Officer Neal Froneman said in Johannesburg Wednesday. The climate is “not yet conducive to make decisions that require billions of rand,” he said.
West Africa — an Emerging Gold Exploration Investment Hotspot
Vladimir Basov | about 21 hours ago
“Foreign companies invested billions of dollars in gold exploration activities over the past few years, resulting in West Africa having the biggest growth rate in the yellow metal’s resources in the world.”
“74% of all exploration projects are focused on gold.”
“This focus on gold in the exploration stage indicates that the importance of gold in West Africa’s mining sector will only increase in the future, as new projects will enter the production phase.”
http://www.mining.com/west-africa-emerging-gold-exploration-investment-hotspot/
(ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold – Corporate Presentation: 121 Mining Investment Cape Town 2019
Feb 25, 2019 #VIDEO #WestAfrica #Gold #Producer
(ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold Reports Strong Cash Flow and Production Performance In 2018
March 26, 2019
(SWA) (SRMMF) Sarama Resources 2019 – Simplifying The Story
MiningBookGuy – Jan 28, 2019 #VIDEO #West Africa #Gold #Explorer
Teranga is exploring right by Sarama and has a nice resource developing, but it would make more sense if TGZ took over the assets of SWA in the South Honde greenstone belt of Burkina Faso, now that Acacia is busy trying to stay alive in Tanzia and has lost focus on Sarama. I’d like to see that merger between Teranga and Sarama.
_______________________________________
Teranga Gold Announces Early-Stage Initial Resource for Golden Hill Including
Indicated Resources of 415,000 Ounces at 2.02 g/t Au and Inferred Resources of 644,000 Ounces at 1.68 g/t Au
February 21, 2019
“It is still very early in our exploration program. However, after only 18 months of drilling, Golden Hill has advanced rapidly and we are increasingly confident that Golden Hill will ultimately represent Teranga’s third gold mine,” said Richard Young, President and Chief Executive Officer. “With an early-stage initial resource estimate in hand, the focus now is on advancing the metallurgical test work required to produce the initial technical and economic assessments. The completion of these assessments is a prerequisite to drawing down on the debt facility in place to take Golden Hill into the feasibility stage of development.”
This Map of the South Hounde’ Belt in West Africa illustrates the proximity of Teranga & Sarama, but shows Roxgold, Semafo, and B2Gold in the area as well.
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1e9vgd8-sarama_teranga_south-hounde_project_MAP.jpg
BC’s prolific Golden Triangle: a selection of ExplorerCo’s for your consideration (Part I)
Greg Nolan – March 29, 2019
“ExplorerCo’s holding a stake in Triangle are, for the most part, riding out the winter much further south and much closer to sea level, in the climate-controlled security of their Howe Street HQs. They’re in data compilation mode, developing their discovery models, crunching resource numbers, laying out logistics for their next foray into the Triangle.”
“Those new to the Triangle will be scrutinizing the discovery models of their neighbors, champing at the bit to hit the ground running as soon as the spring thaw kicks in, intent on making the next big discovery…”
That was a very good breakdown of some of the companies operating in the Golden Triangle, like Pretium, Seabridge, GT Gold, Dolly Varden, Golden Ridge, Eskay, Jaxon, Tueton, Tudor, Metallis, etc…
>> This Golden Triangle MAP is very detailed and a great resource:
https://i1.wp.com/equity.guru/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/gt1.jpg?w=650&ssl=1
Dolly Varden still looks like an interesting value proposition for a Canadian Silver company operating in the Golden Triangle with Gary Cope at the helm.
____________________________
New Discoveries in a Historic Mining Camp:
(DV)(DOLLF) Dolly Varden Silver Project in the Golden Triangle of Northwestern BC
January 14, 2019 #CorporatePresentation
https://www.dollyvardensilver.com/site/assets/files/1622/2019-01-14-dv-cp.pdf
The Silver Lining of the Golden Triangle – Dolly Varden Silver Corp. (DV)(DOLLF)
Cambridge House International – Feb 1, 2019 #VIDEO
Ben Whiting is the VP of Exploration with Dolly Varden Silver Corp
I’ve got a little starter position in Golden Ridge (GLDN) as a drillplay in the Golden Triangle and am considering adding a bit more to it for a trade into this upcoming exploration season.
______________________________________________
Mike Blady, $GLDN at Zurich Precious Metals Summit
Nov 10, 2018 #VIDEO
(GLDN) Golden Ridge Resources preparing for drill program at Hank project in British Columbia
Proactive Investors Stocktube – Jan 20, 2019 #VIDEO
There are several dozen mining companies (mostly explorers) operating up in the Golden Triangle that it is hard to follow them all. Anyone have any that look prospective for 2019’s drill season?
I was also considering Jaxon or GT Gold. I’m still not sure what Garibaldi is going to come up with, but it may be time to circle back around. For a while I had a position in Teuton Resources (that are more a prospect generator with many JVs going). Another one with a big land position is Romios.
There are so many tiny explorers like Spearmint, or Scottie, or Aben, or International Samuel, or Metallis, etc… but I’m not sure who will end up with a truly economic deposit and who will just burn through tons of shareholder money to admit it wasn’t enough to be worth the candle.
>> Just curious what other projects in the BC that investors here at the KER are following?
Ex – Great information on Dolly Varden. I have a small position and was considering reallocating some funds to this one. Just watching for now.
Hi Charles. Yes, Dolly Varden has an interesting past as a historic mine, but I like the team of Gary Cope and Ben Whiting to unlock and discover more ounces in the ground, and believe DV will attract a premium as a Canadian Silver company, just like Alexco (and Metallic Minerals will eventually).
Cheers!
(AXU) (AXR) Alexco & (MMG) (MMNGF) Metallic Minerals have another interesting Silver camp in Canada at Keno Hill. Nice history and overview on this article:
_________________________________________
Great Mining Camps of Canada 1.
The History and Geology of the Keno Hill Silver Camp, Yukon Territory
R. J. (Bob) Cathro
https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/GC/article/view/2686/3103
Still need to get some of that Metallic Minerials! Cheers back at you!
Yes, the drill season is still young….. 🙂
(MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos Inc. – Rebuilding The Castle
March 26, 2019 – Cormark Securities
“Minera is following the Castle Gold model (sold to Argonaut) of bootstrapping small but low-capex mines into production then using the cash flow to scale. Minera has three advanced assets in Mexico, two (Santana, La Fortuna) will be permitted by H1/19 and a third (Guadalupe De Los Reyes – “GDR”) is in the engineering/design phase.”
“Proven Team: Minera’s CEO is a metallurgist with a specialization in small Mexican heap leach mines, Management and the Board have built multiple analogous mines that serve as key producers for Argonaut (AR) (Buy -C$3.80 Target) and Alamos (AGI).”
(MAI) (MAIFF)Minera Alamos – Investor Presentation November 2018
Swiss Resource Capital AG – #VIDEO #CorporatePresentation
(MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos Webinar
Soar Financial Partners – Jan 24, 2019 #VIDEO
“Minera Alamos exclusive webinar with the President and Director of Minera Alamos , Doug Ramshaw.”
Keep an eye on Minera Alamos in 2019
Caesars Report – 2 January, 2019
https://www.caesarsreport.com/reports/exploration-outlook-2019/
Trump Offshore Drilling Order Unlawful, Judge Rules
BBC News – 5 hours ago
“During his presidency, Barack Obama brought in a ban on offshore drilling in parts of the Arctic and Atlantic.”
“Mr Trump attempted to overturn this with an executive order in 2017, promising to allow oil and gas companies back into protected regions.”
“District Court Judge Sharon Gleason has now ruled that the president violated a federal environmental law.”
“He signed the executive order allowing oil and gas giants access to the protected areas in April 2017, just a few months after his January inauguration.”
“At the time, Mr Trump told reporters that he wanted to “unleash American energy”. Environmental groups immediately announced that they would challenge the move.”
Dollar Doldrums?
https://i.postimg.cc/wvxjn61M/DXY-20190329-2hr.png
https://i.postimg.cc/ydf8HwRP/DXY-20190329-Daily.png
https://i.postimg.cc/ZnCKKVFh/DXY-20190329-Weekly.png
Sideways, for years, likely. Up, possible.
David Morgan:
Gerald Celente:
McCalvany:
Ron Paul talks Fed again:
Does Yield Curve Inversion Mean A Devastating Bear Market Is Coming Soon?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoH0mFWYo7E
Tesla: Savior or Fraud?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kgm85SB_lqg
You Musk be kidding, it’s a cult stock.
“You Musk be kidding….” (haha! good one Matthew)
Jeroen Blokland @jsblokland
“The new normal? Negative-yielding #debt now represents almost 20% of all outstanding debt!”
I meant to put that up above with the yield curve and future bear market post.
What is it going to take to free the metals from the iron clad grip they find themselves in presently???
A shift in money flows into the resource sector, when funds and investors start to rebalance out of other asset classes that are topping and rolling over.
Even if funds and investors embrace a 5-10% allocation in PMs during the turbulent market conditions to come, then there will be a golden grip on the sector.
258 @fbx258
“Mean reversion for Gold coming ?” [Gold vs 10 year treasuries]
ADL Predictions For Price of Gold
Chris Vermeulen – 6 hours ago (Mar 31, 2019)
“Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system has been calling for this move for many months (see the chart below). This advanced predictive price modeling system is suggesting that in May/June of 2019, we will likely see a bigger price rally unfold in Gold and Silver which may be paired with some type of geopolitical or global economic event.”
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/adl-predictions-for-price-of-gold-565242
Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity
Chris Vermeulen -14 hours ago (Mar 31, 2019)
“This is the move that we’ve been warning about for months – the retracement from the $1315~1320 level that should bottom out near $1240~1265 and will ultimately become the “momentum base” for the future upside move. Precious metals are starting a move that we predicted many months ago. Our researchers believe Gold will trade below $1275 for a brief period of time (likely just a few days or weeks) before setting up a broad-based momentum bottom. Our objective is to “leg into” this setup with a series of long trades for the ultimate upside breakout.”
“Our research suggests that near the end of April 2019 or in early May 2019, Gold prices will likely begin a strong upside price move that will quickly target the $1500+ price level. We believe this current price swing will set up as the last real opportunity for skilled traders to accumulate long positions in precious metals while we wait for the April/May breakout move. Any opportunity to buy near the lower range of our Buy Zones would be an excellent entry position given our future prediction that a massive upside breakout move is just 20~30 days away from starting.”
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/precious-metals-setup-final-buying-opportunity-565232
Fundamentally, I agree with your notion Ex. However, my question perhaps had a hidden angle towards sentiment. The question therefore pertaining to the premise of when and how will the PMs break free of the current sentiment?
As to when sentiment changes, the Daily Sentiment Index is a good way of tracking that, but honestly it will blow with market winds that make little rational sense.
Watching the chart indicators on Gold like the ADX, Slow Stochastics, RSI Stochastics helps, as does the more lagging indicators like MACD and TRIX.
For miners, the breadth indicators are helpful like the BPGDM offers some insights into the underlying sentiment in the sector.
Here is the BPGDM Chart showing where lows were in late 2015 and 2016 before rallies into early 2016 and 2017. It is also evident there was a low in late 2017 for the run higher in early 2018, and again another low during last Summer Doldrums and into early fall that rose to present time.
Gold Miners and the yellow metal have done OK rising from that time late last summer until now, so sentiment isn’t really bad at present, but isn’t great either.
Ex, if funds and investors embrace a 5-10% allocation in PMs, a lot of KER readers will become VERY rich.
https://bmg-group.com/gold-percentage-global-financial-assets/
That is a percentage that I have been stressing for years and years and even more years,Matthew!
That sounds like a nice outcome Matthew. Cheers!
China’s manufacturing activity hits 6-month high
Mar 31, 2019 – Liyan Qi – Marketwatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-manufacturing-activity-hits-6-month-high-2019-03-31
Darn – I didn’t want to post that China article here, but alas…. here it is….
Matthew, at this time I think 30 or 40% in PM’s makes sense. Have you bought any IRVRF or NSRPF yet? They are getting killed along with MRRMF. Not a good week for Kereport sponsors.
Bonzo, I think many here would agree with your 30-40% which is why I said they will be rich if the average went to 5-10%. The vast majority of people have 0% right now.
I do not own the stocks that you mentioned. Despite piercing its intermediate term uptrend support today, I wouldn’t be surprised if Novo bounces from here. Someone decided to sell the news on a bad day for the sector without much regard for prices being offered. Volume is modest for such a plunge.
http://schrts.co/MnnNIMQA
Matthew, I wonder if the plunge of Miramont last week has resulted in margin calls that have led to selling of NSRPF and IRVRF since all 3 have Quinton Hennigh on their board and appeal to the same investors. It might be close to time to buy all 3.
Individually, I can’t say if they should be bought here or not but I think this drop in the sector will end before most people expect.
On my screen, I’m seeing an absence of buyers more than an abundance of sellers. In other words, the bears are weaker than they appear.
Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough (dishing on Larry Kudlow’s flip-flop)
“Former conservative who always talked about “King Dollar” is now begging the Fed for easy money and US Dollar devaluation #sad”
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/1111958712669913089
CEO.ca Weekly Wrap: Big Gains And Big Risk
by @Goldfinger on 30 Mar 2019
“A look at some of the week’s best chats and Charts on CEO.CA…”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/ceoca-weekly-wrap-big-gains-and-big-risk
GDX has now retraced its entire post-Fed move (since 2pm on 3/20).
15 minute chart:
http://schrts.co/ytFaUfie
GDXJ has now filled its large March 8 gap…
http://schrts.co/USccQpnN
The Fed cntrols both interest rates and the stock market by injection of money into the economy.
It will continue to do so for longer than most think possible.
The danger comes not from inside the US, but from some unexpected foreign failure.
At that point the BIS will try to step in.