Joel Elconin - Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show – Tue 16 Apr, 2019

Earnings Recap, Low Volatility, and Gold Breaking Down

Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show joins me for a full recap of earnings from Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, and the bank and auto sector. We also discuss the news out of Disney entering the streaming sector as well as gold breaking below $1,280.

Click here to listen to the recordings of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show.

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  1. On April 16, 2019 at 9:53 am,
    larry says:

    /GC gold same basic pattern as gdx since they are typically correlated…daily chart garden variety 1;1 AB=CD target is 1256.4…weekly chart 50% retracement down from the 8/13 intermediate low is 1258…again some nice harmony and confluence emerging to set up this buy

  2. On April 16, 2019 at 10:04 am,
    larry says:

    /GC monthly chart is really important ……That chart has a TAS profile with a point of control of 1243…This point od control is a price that buyers and sellers equally agree on…..So if you see /GC blow by its daily AB=CD down it is just targeting support from a monthly level…!..good luck traders..getting near

    • On April 16, 2019 at 11:06 am,
      Matthew says:

      That’s interesting considering the 200 and 233 week MAs which 1243 is sandwiched between:

      • On April 16, 2019 at 11:16 am,
        Matthew says:

        Notice that the 200 week MA crossed above the 233 wMA a few months ago. The last time that happened was in 2003. From 2/2002 until 4/2013, price never touched those MAs. Not even in 2008. So I wouldn’t count on it happening now.

        • On April 16, 2019 at 11:21 am,
          larry says:

          I agree, that IS interesting…..i will have to stare at the chart for a while this evening… arrived at finding important inflection points using extremely long term moving ave. crossovers…i will have to stare awhile matthew

        • On April 16, 2019 at 11:27 am,
          larry says:

          Mathew said’ not even in 2008’…right, i will have to stare hard at this charting approach you do matthew…my point was that nearby was a confluences offering support including a monthly TAS profile point of control…The trajectories are totally different than in 2008 is my best off cuff response

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:38 am,
            Matthew says:

            I get what you’re saying and did not mean to imply that 2008 has anything to do with your comment. I was simply pointing out what I believe is an impressive fact: That price never touched those MAs for 11 years, not even during the huge decline of 2008. In fact, aside from 2008, price never came remotely close to those MAs. SO, at some point (soon, in my opinion), we are going to have a similar situation in which those MAs are out of play for a very long time. I believe there’s a very good chance that we’re already there.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            To further (attempt to) clarify, I’m comparing the current setup with 2002-2003, not 2008. A long bear is ending and we have that MA cross that I mentioned.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:49 am,
            larry says:

            right, i knew you understood..i just wanted to mention it to clear the record….i am always amazed at how valid methods, no matter how different, tend to come to amazing agreements on price levels, so, yes…amazing plus impressive

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:52 am,
            Matthew says:

            Same here. It IS amazing.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 12:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Something else that I think is significant is that both 12 year MAs (the 600 week simple MA and EMA) had to be broken to complete the washout. The bears should be worried that their attempts to hold price below those MAs failed after weeks/months of succeeding.
            The last time price was below both of those MAs was in 2003.

        • On April 16, 2019 at 11:41 am,
          larry says:

          matthew another response…that original crossover in 2203 occured at a 9 year cycle low….this low we want to trade is an intermedite low within a failed 9 year cycle low from back at month 12/2015

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:42 am,
            larry says:

            2003 low….correction

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:45 am,
            Matthew says:

            Why do you consider it a failed low? I believe it is a low that will remain the low for a very long time.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 11:54 am,
            larry says:

            It is a failure when using cycle analysis…..the first intermediate leg up from the 12/2015 9 year cycle low was small and had no follow up after it topped on 7/2016…Since that first leg off the 9 year low it has been lower highs…true 9 year cycle lows have at least 3 successive intermediate cycles up in the first year… by definition this is a failed gold 9 year cycle low

          • On April 16, 2019 at 12:15 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Thanks, I see. I believe that goes with what Tim Wood has been saying. He was way too bearish at the 2015 low and into 2016 and I think he’s bearish now. It also took him a very long time to recognize that the 2015 low was in fact the 9 year cycle low.

            Do you think gold will take that low out? I do not, obviously.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 12:31 pm,
            larry says:

            I do understand the tim wood method for counting cycles and i do use it..i do not fully understand his use of dow theory which has nothing to do with gold….It appears to me Matthew a small thing called Trump will upset those traditional 9 year cycle patterns in gold…But cycles are powerful influences so it looks to be back loaded time wise when the 7/16 high is finally broken…Which is bullish……because then the next 9 year cycle low will be like a C point in an AB=CD pattern…but i respect cycles and will treat this next low as a more limited intermediate cycle low with 2 or 3 embedded trading cycles in it….Clearly a ton of dough can be made…but,it will be very difficult do to the cycles being distorted…so yes i favor the inflation or deflation argument but markets are made to fake out beliefs

          • On April 16, 2019 at 12:45 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I respect cycles but haven’t made them my focus since I’ve done well with my approach.
            I also agree that Trump had an impact but the vertical move in the gold sector in 2016 sowed the seeds of the long correction that followed. Adding to it was the mess of MAs that were far apart, falling sharply and bearishly aligned. Everything is in much better order now.

  3. On April 16, 2019 at 10:09 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks Larry for your thoughts on the gold contract. Good information/targets to look for.

  4. On April 16, 2019 at 10:24 am,
    larry says:

    /GC gold, just noticed daily /GC has found support at its 200 day ema….Of course, this Could be significant support…and the markets will probably make you want to buy it…I would rather wait and possiblly miss an intermediate low in gold issues……always it is never easy…sorry

  5. On April 16, 2019 at 10:51 am,
    larry says:

    /ES, I am already short this thing at 2895 using spxs…so taking some heat…but today the es mini /ES day chart has the all important wave 7 up since its december low and is at diagonal resistance and has a slight RSI(14) divergence with price and ‘almost’ completed final? AB=CD up on 5 hour chart AND has a hammer candle at a top right here and now..the closing could look different….Hammers are the single best top out candle i know of, that is the point i am raising

  6. On April 16, 2019 at 10:55 am,
    larry says:

    /Es correction…it did complete its ?final? 5 hour chart AB=CD , the ideal 1;1 was 2927 and it got 2921 that is pretty close on a 115 point leg up from C point….

  7. On April 16, 2019 at 11:47 am,
    Matthew says:

    Off by $2:
    On April 15, 2019 at 8:22 pm,
    Matthew says:
    Gold is finding support in the $1280s so far but a quick dip down to $1275 would not be surprising.

    • On April 16, 2019 at 11:59 am,
      larry says:

      yep, good one

    • On April 16, 2019 at 12:19 pm,
      larry says:

      request..don’t shoot the messenger:If the 9 year cycle low failure is a valid interpretation and i believe it is…and if this time is not different….well, the next 9 year cycle low in gold is due 2023…So, if this time is not different from gold cycles perspective..well, either we have a rip roaring equity markets and no one gives a chit about gold stuff or we are heading into some serious deflation or gold will be in a massive range bound consolodation for reasons unknown preceeding a massive breakout

      • On April 16, 2019 at 1:03 pm,
        Matthew says:

        That could be but the situation is telling me that gold will expand the range in which it is bound. In other words, it will be above the range of the last several years but below the 2011 top. This would explain the bullishness that I see for the miners yet also allow for conventional stocks to hold up or even melt up. Remember that the pm miners and the stock market went up significantly together last decade.
        Those who’ve been here at KER for a long time know that I’ve said for years that I am downright bearish gold when compared to the gold miners and that remains the case.
        Keep in mind that the Dow fell almost 90% versus gold from 1999 to 2011 so a very protracted rangebound period for gold makes sense. Also keep in mind that the real price of gold is as high now as it was in 2011 in some respects (like vs oil). So it is doing better than most think (because of dollar strength) which means that the miners can (will) do better than most think (and they already have; big time in 2016).

        • On April 16, 2019 at 3:13 pm,
          larry says:

          Hi again Matthew…I intend to study your moving average approach soon…I saved the actual KER blog page it is inside of….Your method also requires enduring some very lengthy drawdowns…and that Mathew is not a criticism……I am 60 YO and as such just am risk avoider…..I would rather take several small loses to position…i just use generally 1.168 times the average true range subtracted from the entry price… is not perfect for sure…i have been taken out a penny before final lows …uhg

          • On April 16, 2019 at 3:21 pm,
            larry says:

            correction…average true range times 1.618….added or subtracted from my entry price depending if long or short the trade…..

            Thenumber of shares is purchase price minus stop out price… and that number divided into my 1% risk allocation per trade…so if i have 100k my risked capital per trade is 1000 dollars…i would divide say my 2 dollar stop into that 1000 dollars and see that is 500 shares at 2 dollar risk capital…said another way, the more my risk capital then the fewer the shares i may buy…total risk management

          • On April 16, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
            Matthew says:

            My drawdowns are often significant but I do mitigate them by selling strength. For example, my junior miner portfolio is still up close to four-fold since the 2016 move despite some very unnecessary bad moves since then — like buying Primero Mining. For the 2016 calendar year, the portfolio peaked at a seven-fold gain.
            Even when I intend to stay long a market, I still sell plenty of what’s hot and selectively buy what’s not. This has also worked well regarding drawdowns even when my outlook has been wrong.
            I approach my speculating much differently than my trading and am often much more confident about the outcomes I forecast than any trader would or should be comfortable with. The big problem with the juniors is the lack of liquidity so I buy weakness. I do not wait for a significant move off the bottom.

          • On April 16, 2019 at 4:12 pm,
            larry says:

            OK Matthew, fascinating for sure…..My way is a shorter leash and at least a reversal candle on the 30 minute chart at the patterns end…..right, you must almost buy those morning selloffs to have a chance in miners….It is likely that I will wait until next week for my nugt purchase…that is plenty of action for me!

  8. On April 16, 2019 at 12:35 pm,
    larry says:

    Wha da freak…..the markets are falling down hard what just happened