Lobo Tiggre - The Independent Speculator – Thu 25 Apr, 2019

Key Topics For Metals Investors – Chinese Data and US Market FOMO

Lobo Tiggre, Editor of the Independent Speculator joins me today to look at some of the other areas that have a large impact on the metals markets. First is the recent data out of China that has been generally better. The argument can be made that it’s all the PBoC freeing up capital but Lobo has some other ideas on the actual data presented. We then move to the US and the sense of FOMO that encompasses the US markets. These are two major drivers to the metals markets. Even Lobo points out that there could be some more downside but he is not selling his positions.

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Comments:
  1. On April 25, 2019 at 11:28 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ is down less than half as much as GDX for a change, and that’s a good sign. It’s probably due to the fact that GDXJ has already filled its Jan 25 gap and made a new YTD low while GDX has not.

    GDXJ:GDX…
    http://schrts.co/cIVAcdVk

  2. On April 25, 2019 at 12:09 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    You boys thing Kyle Bass will be right? He says by the end of the year. I haven’t been following him lately.

    And in other news…Uncle Joe made it official today as expected…and he says the soul of America is at stake…you ready for Creepy Uncle Joe to save your soul? Uncle Joe couldn’t save a sole, let alone a soul.

      • On April 25, 2019 at 1:32 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Who benefits here………..? All the copy right people?
        I think there is Q report out concerning the CHina deal , and the new silk road,
        indicating that Trump is trying to break the FED, via trade agreements with China.

        • On April 25, 2019 at 1:33 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Microsoft?

          • On April 25, 2019 at 5:44 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Hah! Speaking of Microsoft…I have not yet had a chance to look at the article you posted above because today I had to do some T-SQL work. (That is Microsoft’s proprietary extension to SQL.) Trying to do some tricky stuff so I had to put on my big boy pants as they say.

            Anyway, that ate up most of the day and I am not done yet but I will read the article before I go to sleep tonight (or more acurately, try to go to sleep tonight.)

            Thanks for the link. I was not aware of that article.

  3. On April 25, 2019 at 1:02 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-25/albert-edwards-how-determine-if-market-wrong
    What is clear to Edwards is that despite what they tell in various surveys, “investors clearly do not believe a recession is imminent and that it is safe to ignore the inverted yield curve (people said exactly the same in 2007 and 2000).” Meanwhile, the economic data remains weak/mixed apart from China, whose strength may be temporarily related to the timing of the Lunar New Year.

    In conclusion, Edwards reiterates the David Rosenberg comment about the people who keep telling him they can’t see any signs of an imminent recession. “I can’t tell you how much I hear that every single day. It’s like saying “I can’t smell the carbon monoxide” By the time you “see the recession”, your head’s sliced off.”

  4. On April 25, 2019 at 1:37 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Chinese investors…..are still screwed up with their real estate, ….no sale at a discount program.
    This was report about two months ago…..and real estate is a big deal.

  5. On April 25, 2019 at 1:40 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    How many Vacant cities do they still have…………which are suppose to house millions of people………OVER BUILT and Collecting dust.

  6. On April 25, 2019 at 1:47 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Long Term………….ditto……….

  7. On April 25, 2019 at 2:48 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    What made America so prosperous. World War 1 &2 had impoverished Europe and hardly damaged The US. This is the key, when peace came the Americans found themselves the economic masters of the world. Now America is the sick man on life support, they are the country that is most impoverished by war, they can’t pull the plug on continually funding and fighting foreign wars. Their infrastructure is old and decrepit, the industry has either fled or needs restructuring. Americans have fueled their economy on cheap money and a phony stock market explosion. China settled it’s problems after The Mao revolution and they are beating America in business because they have energy, a wide domestic market, and their hands aren’t tied by fighting and financing foreign wars. Russia too has come back from the abyss because they learned their lesson in Afghanistan. America must face bankruptcy to realize that it’s over, they refuse to face the fact they can’t afford an empire and remain a prosperous country in a global economy. DT

    • On April 25, 2019 at 5:14 pm,
      larry says:

      DT….I forgot about that view of history…YES we have squandered the immense advantages we found ourselves in…It seems like those days arent coming back anytime soon…It makes me sad to admit…Now adays we cannot even agree to defend our besieged southern border with simply a fence plus…..

  8. On April 25, 2019 at 4:44 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    SILVER FACTS>>>>>>>>>>
    We still have no new purchases of physical Silver showing up in the April delivery period as the count remains at 1 with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. The paper shorts had to add, in order to stay the price, with the total count now at 219,904 Overnighters, proving a gain of 1,871 helping to keep things steady and controlled. Of note is a large purchase made yesterday in the already over purchased July Silver 2019 Call Options at the $15.50 Strike and only 60 cents away from the futures market price. Yesterday’s volume on this one strike showed a count of 941 when the Open Interest was at 955. This morning’s OI count shows the total at 1,489 with a closing price at 13.9 cents proving an additional $380,860 being added to the fray. A reminder here; over 1 ½ years ago, July and December 2019 Silver Options had more purchases done than all the other months combined. Someone spent 10’s of millions of dollars making those original purchases further out in time than ever before and now we’re getting closer to finding out if this was a hedge against their paper shorts in the futures market or another bad trade. Also of note, there are no other massive purchases done further out in 2020 or 2021, making this massive past purchase an anomaly.

  9. On April 25, 2019 at 5:06 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On April 25, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      People need to learn to live again like their ancestors did before there was big government. That would take us back to the late forties and early fifties. They survived on a lot less, were more community minded, and probably a lot happier.

      • On April 26, 2019 at 6:42 am,
        larry says:

        Bingo…but fiirst people will vote in socialism eventually…then will that be reversed and sanity re-established?

  10. On April 25, 2019 at 9:10 pm,
    cfs says:

    Typical End of Empire scenario is that the country overspends and becomes endebted. It finalIy is this debt, despite all monetary efforts to stimulate an economy that ultimately drives the economy into stagnation and the country into impotence.
    It happened Mesopotamian civilizations, the Roman Empire, ancient China, the Spanish Empire, the British Empire and will happen with the U.S.
    Death of Empire can be precipitated by war or climatic problems.
    (There is some indication that the Roman Empire collapse was hastened by crop failures associated with a solar minimum (400 year cycle).
    Such end-times do not always end in inflation; less likely for major currencies and may be impossible for a reserve currency, because a liquidity crisis becomes a problem.

  11. On April 25, 2019 at 9:17 pm,
    cfs says:

    Q drop question:

    Why would a President of the United States [HUSSEIN] assign ‘RENEGADE’ as his USS codename?

    Define ‘Renegade’.
    noun
    1. a person who deserts and betrays an organization, country, or set of principles.
    synonyms: traitor, defector, deserter, turncoat, betrayer;
    adjective: renegade
    1. having treacherously changed allegiance.

    cfs comment: How many years have I been calling him a “traitor” in this forum?
    What would you expect from a Kenyan Marxist Muslim?

    • On April 26, 2019 at 5:26 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Many others jointed in this …..calling out…..of the moron…..pervert.

  12. On April 25, 2019 at 10:26 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Government approved controversial uranium mine one day before calling the election

    Michael Slezak – Updated 17 minutes ago

    “The Yeelirrie Uranium mine, located 500 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, requires both federal and state approval.”

    “The state approval of the proposed mine is still being fought in the state’s Supreme Court by members of the Tjiwarl traditional owners.”

    “In 2016, the West Australian Environment Protection Agency advised the mine not be approved, concluding it posed too great a risk of extinction to some native animals.”

    “The former Liberal Barnett government controversially approved the mine in 2017, just weeks before it lost the West Australian election.”

    “Canadian company Cameco, the world’s largest uranium producer, is seeking to develop the uranium mine, which would cover an area 9km long and 1.5km wide.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/government-approved-uranium-mine-day-before-election/11047252

    • On April 25, 2019 at 10:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Dollars Fly as Utilities, Miners Brawl over Uranium Quotas

      Timothy Cama, E&E News reporter Energywire: Wednesday, April 24, 2019

      “Uranium companies and electric utilities are locked in a lobbying battle over a proposal to protect American uranium miners from foreign competitors by mandating trade quotas.”

      “Energy Fuels Inc. and Ur-Energy Inc. are asking President Trump to limit imports of uranium — fuel for nuclear power plants — with a 25% quota for domestically derived fuel.”

      “The miners are backed by a few similarly situated companies like Uranium Energy Corp. and the Uranium Producers of America that either fully or partly support the call for quotas.”

      “But those relatively small companies face strong opposition from major utilities like Exelon Corp. and Xcel Energy Inc. that run nuclear power plants and want to avoid increased costs.”

      https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060208427

  13. On April 26, 2019 at 5:31 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    SO GOES THE CHINA STORY…………….another day another dollar….. 🙂
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-26/us-futures-drift-lower-china-suffers-worst-week-2019

    • On April 26, 2019 at 5:34 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      On the flipside, Intel short-circuited and reported shockingly bad earnings guidance despite top and bottom line printing inline with expectations. The hardware maker cut their FY guidance and forecast a weak Q2 as Chinese data centre sales remain soft, as the region is consuming fewer microchips than expected, and follows on from a similar warning sign eschewed from Texas Instruments. As a result of the terrible results INTC is trading with losses of 7% in the pre-market.

      • On April 26, 2019 at 5:36 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        While US stocks continue to trade at all time highs, albeit with dismal volumes suggesting there is little enthusiasm to chase prices here, sentiment in China has turned decidedly for the worse, and Chinese stocks suffered their worst week since October,

  14. On April 26, 2019 at 6:36 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On April 26, 2019 at 6:39 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      In a central bank-driven, fiat currency-based economy like the U.S. has had for the past few decades, a good portion of the growth and booms are actually unsustainable bubbles. That explains the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, and the current “Everything Bubble.” Someone who is aware of the unsustainability of fiat currency-based economies (a group known as Austrian School economists) can quite feasibly spot the development of dangerous bubbles a decade before they actually collapse and cause tremendous damage to the economy and overall society.(per the article)

      • On April 26, 2019 at 6:42 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Bubbles are a process – not a specific point in time.(per the article)

      • On April 26, 2019 at 6:47 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Nice chart…..if you open the post……but, most already know this….
        The chart of U.S. household wealth as a percent of GDP shows just how inflated asset prices (primarily stocks and bonds) have become relative to the underlying economy. Household wealth surged during the dot-com bubbles and housing bubbles, only to come crashing down again. Our current Fed-driven bubble blows the last two out of the water, and the coming coming bust will be proportional to the surge (which is a very scary

  15. On April 26, 2019 at 7:03 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    I am bringing this forward……..Brian Lundin comment …..
    think about it…………140 TONS…..like duh….
    As you are probably well aware, I’m skeptical that government actors can or would manipulate gold or silver on a daily basis. But there’s no denying that the structure of the paper gold and silver markets (as well as some other assets) are
    such that well-financed traders can move them for their own purposes at will.

    There have been a number of examples of these so-called “flash crashes” in gold over the years, most notably in April 2013, when as much as 140 tonnes of gold was quickly dumped onto the market to drive the price down hundreds of dollars
    By Brien Lundin
    Gold Newsletter, Metairie, Louisiana
    Thursday, April 25, 2019

    • On April 26, 2019 at 7:08 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Like double duh…..
      The only answer is that there aren’t a number of independent traders acting Simultaneously — and that position limits are being ignored for a few specially favored traders acting in concert.

      • On April 26, 2019 at 7:11 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Report…..furnished through GATA……

      • On April 26, 2019 at 7:13 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Everything gets manipulated it always has and always will be. Gold gets manipulated up and down, it’s a fact of life. DT

        • On April 26, 2019 at 7:29 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Never up…….by the FEDSTERS………. 🙂

          • On April 26, 2019 at 7:35 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            GATA is telling you what you want to hear, it’s a con game. DT

          • On April 26, 2019 at 7:37 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Then you have to call Brian Lundin…….a con game…….. 🙂

          • On April 26, 2019 at 7:38 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I really do not want to hear anything, that is not the truth…..
            Historically, speaking, the con job….started well before GATA..

          • On April 26, 2019 at 7:41 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I am just POSTING info. which I believe interesting or import, that some might miss.
            But, seeing the lack of comments…..I must be preaching to the choir… 🙂

          • On April 26, 2019 at 7:47 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            BTW…..thanks for any and all comments……

  16. On April 26, 2019 at 7:50 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  17. On April 26, 2019 at 7:52 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    OIL……..and the TRUMP
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-26/oil-tumbles-after-trump-says-he-called-opec-gas-prices-are-coming-down
    Kind of puts a hole in some others guru’s blather……… 🙂