Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 11 Jun, 2019

The Next Week Will Be Very Important For US Markets Which Impact All The Other Markets

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me for a look at the energy sector, metals, and US markets. He points out that the US markets as well as the metals are at very important levels. Over the next few trading days a decision will need to be made by the US markets which Chris thinks could be lower.

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  1. On June 11, 2019 at 7:58 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Relative to its weekly moving averages, gold looks a lot better now than it did in 2016. I think that huge rise was caused in large part by gold’s arrival and successful test of its 12 year (600 week) moving average. The MAs haven’t been so tightly bunched-up in over 20 years and gold is now above all of them. The stage is set…

    • On June 11, 2019 at 8:02 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It looks just as good when we use exponential moving averages…

    • On June 12, 2019 at 3:25 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Matthew – Good comments on the 600 week MA.

      Another thing was that when Gold did a W-shaped double-bottomed in Dec 2015, those are a solid base to build off of, and it surged up through a number of more recent prior peaks created on the way down in 2014 and 2015….most notably $1191.70, $1232, and in particular $1307.80.

      Personally I thought was plenty of peaks to take out on the first true impulse leg up we’d seen in years, but was not expecting it consolidate in the summer doldrums and then surge even higher to $1377.50 (in the typically sideways/down part of the year) which effectively took out major resistance at $1346.80. When that happened it really should have been the final proof investors needed that the move out of 2015 and into summer of 2016 was the worm turning.

      (Dead Cat bounces, or counter-trend rallies, don’t take out 4 prior peaks in just one leg – something people like Spanky or even some of the pundits that keep saying we’ve been in a bear market since 2011 will never understand or appreciate).

      In addition, the Fibonacci daily moving averages were stacked up during the entire bear move down from 2013, 2014, and 2015 with the 233 on top, then the 144, and the shortest 89 day EMA on the bottom. As the impulse leg in 2016 got underway, Gold shot up through all 3 of those key moving averages like a hot knife through butter. (that’s called a clue for people wondering if the bottom at $1045.40 was for real).

      The next key to point out was that the 89 day EMA took out out both the 144 day EMA & 233 day EMA where the shortest was now on top of the averages leading the move higher.

      That was VERY significant to any chartists paying attention, and the again, was so much more than just a “RALLY” as people like Jordan are calling that move now.

      (Again, dead-cat bounces or counter-trend rallies don’t have such a show of force)

      I was on board with the double-bottom down to $1045.40 back in 2015 being at least a significant intermediate low, as you and Gabriel first pointed out, and then others like Gary Savage & Bob Moriarty pointed that it may be a new baby bull.

      I mentioned at that time, that while the move was encouraging to start 2016 that I wouldn’t celebrate until $1347 was taken out ($1346.80 specifically) because that was a key resistance level, but that the taking out of the 3 Fib levels 89, 144, 233 really had me excited that it could be the big one. When $1347 fell and Gold made it up to $1377.50, that was the bell ringing for anyone listening.

      Obviously, since that peak, Gold has moved in a sideways channel, putting in significant intermediate cycle “higher lows” at $1124.30 (with 2 smaller daily cycle higher lows at $1204 & $1238.30) and then the next significant “higher low” at $1167.10.

      Negative Nancy traders seem to miss the point that $1045.40 (the Major Low) has never been breached again, nor come anywhere close since December 2015. If we were still in a bear market, that would have been taken out in the last 3 1/2 years. Period.

      Also, from the $1045.40 low, $1124.30 is a higher intermediate low, and $1167.10 is a higher than that intermediate low. That’s called a trend and a pattern.

      The only remaining task Gold has is putting in a higher high than the initial Wave 1 move up to $1377.50. The bullish thing is that rather than plumbing new lows, Gold has been hitting it’s head on on resistance. However, it wasn’t all lower highs….

      Bears keep making the case that we have a series of lower highs since $1434 and $1392, down, (which is a convenient, yet erroneous kind of analysis). both of those prior peaks happened when Gold was still in a bear market and before the Dec 2015 bottom.

      The place any technician worth their salt will start measuring the new cycle from is at a Major Top (like 2011 @ $1921) or a Major Bottom like (2015 @ $1045.40), and then assess the trend from that point forward – yes, still referencing prior peaks/troughs, but looking at what unfolds from that point forward.

      Since the Major bottom, we’ve already discussed the clear pattern of higher lows, but as for the highs the were staggered with no pattern, other than Gold couldn’t “break on through to the other side.”

      $1337.50 was the 2016 high, followed by $1362.40 the 2017 high, followed by $1369.40 the 2018 high (which was HIGHER than the 2017 high, invalidating the garbage about a series of “lower highs”). This point here, seems to be completely lost on folks that keep parroting we’ve seen a series of lower highs from $1434 down.

      The reality is they are counting 2 peaks from the bear trend, and in the new bull trend missing the obvious glaring point that $1369.40 in 2018 was HIGHER than $1362.40 in 2017 (ding ding ding).

      We don’t know what the high will be for 2019 yet, but Gold just got up to $1352.70 and took the most recent high from earlier this year (another short term higher high), but I’m sure bearish forecasters will dismiss that or miss it completely.

      The proof in the pudding will be when Gold finally takes out $1377.50 and validates the next impulse leg higher, and puts to rest once and for good, whether the new bull market (that started in Gold in Dec of 2015) is continuing on up higher. All the indicators so far show that to be the case, and the tightly bunched up MAs on the weekly charts and the test of the 600 week MA was quite significant.

      Ever Upward!

      • On June 12, 2019 at 6:26 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        I will eat my coonskin hat if gold ever drops below 1100 again. Even Rambus thinks gold is about to break out from a huge bottom, and he is hard to please.

        • On June 12, 2019 at 7:10 am,
          Matthew says:

          It will already be gone, Bonzo. I will have eaten it when it dropped below 1200.

      • On June 12, 2019 at 7:08 am,
        Matthew says:

        Good stuff, Ex. Is that smoke I see coming from your keyboard? 🧐

  2. On June 11, 2019 at 8:20 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Thanks Chris……..and Matthew……

    • On June 12, 2019 at 7:39 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      great comments……….EX……….thanks for the summary…..Jthe Long… 🙂

      • On June 12, 2019 at 5:31 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks OOTB. Always glad to rant in summary form my good man….. Cheers!

  3. On June 12, 2019 at 5:09 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (BTR) (BONXF) Bonterra Intersects 101.1 g/t Au over 3.9 m at Gladiator and 12.8 g/t Au over 5.6 m at Moroy

    by @newswire on 12 Jun 2019

  4. On June 12, 2019 at 8:19 am,
    Matthew says:
  5. On June 12, 2019 at 8:22 am,
    Matthew says:
  6. On June 12, 2019 at 8:44 am,
    Matthew says:

    There’s a very good chance that the sellers will soon be overwhelmed:

  7. On June 12, 2019 at 8:47 am,
    Matthew says:

    It’s a good sign that the HUI has taken out last week’s high well ahead of gold:

  8. On June 12, 2019 at 9:33 am,
    Matthew says:
  9. On June 12, 2019 at 10:29 am,
    Matthew says:
  10. On June 12, 2019 at 11:14 am,
    Charles says:

    What is your take on Impact? I look at the ISVLF chart and see it has some time left to further consolidate or one final flush to take out the January low. There are some positive divergences in the momentum indicators, but volume is still light.

  11. On June 12, 2019 at 11:34 am,
    Charles says:

    Nice strike. Per your chart above, looks like the stock has already taken out the January low. My broker charting gives some false reads, but it is easy and cheap and you are good so why bother buying charting software!

  12. On June 12, 2019 at 11:55 am,
    Matthew says:

    Looks like a giant double bottom in the works for Kootenay Silver…

  13. On June 12, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
    Charles says:

    Good information on ISVLF insider buying in January. Like the way the CMF looks. CCI broke out of a downtrend and has backtested. Everything seems to be lining up. Good to know about Kootenay. I have been watching for a while and looking for a place to buy some more.

  14. On June 12, 2019 at 12:06 pm,
    chalres says:

    Can you do a longer term weekly of Kootenay for perspective?