This is a different gold bull market than in the past
Chris Temple joins me today to outline why he thinks this gold bull market is different than the ones in the past. Considerations for this outlook are inflation expectations low, interest rates at historically low levels, and a different type of investor these days. We address how the stocks will fair in this new environment.
Click here to visit Chris’s site for more market and economic commentary.
So far off topic, you wouldn’t believe.
Today Mr. Temple mentioned kumquats. The other day he used the phrase “white on rice”.
Bringing those two together:
https://whiteonricecouple.com/recipes/kumquat-marmalade/?utm_campaign=yummly&utm_medium=yummly&utm_source=yummly
kumquat marmalade on brie; who wouda thunk it?
I believe “white on rice” originated as Asian slang for a greedy Caucasian and his love of money; a somewhat racist term from the early nineteenth century, but certainly marmalade is the best way to utilise kumquats.
Bob Moriarty has an article today warning that gold is getting “toppy”. I guess I’m on Chris’ side that it doesn’t pay to get too cute with timing. Better to be on the train, even if they pull onto a siding to let the stock market express pass by, than to keep waiting for a better entry point because you were too ‘sleepy’ to board when you had the chance. I think the speed of catchup with PMs is going to surprise all of us.
Gregg Weldon on Macro Voices is a good listen on commodities with gold comments included: http://mp3.player.macrovoices.net/mvmp3player.php?mp3=https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/MacroVoices-2019-06-20-Greg-Weldon.mp3
The Federal Reserve can’t raise the interest rate to force up the price of money for speculative purposes, to liquidate speculative loans which are everywhere and to reduce the volume if credit outstanding. If they do they will bring about a terrific smash in the markets, all they can do is keep the gambling tables going by reducing the interest rate. Where I live there is rampant inflation everywhere. In the past they could raise call money rates like Volker did, now the Board has only one policy to lower rates and continue to pump money. They are cornered and soon there will be a collapse in stock prices. Is there any wonder that gold would do well in this environment. The dilemma is that The Board can no longer think up any new and ingenious schemes, there are none left. DT
if credit should be of credit
Dang fake fed, can do anything they want…….JMO
The banking friends of the fed,…..are now allowed to loan…….100 to 1…..
in lieu of what we once thought to be 10 to 1….in their fractional reserve lending scheme.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6m49vNjEGs
You can start at the 25 min mark…..
Maybe after another 50 yrs…..people will catch on……I doubt it….lol
Don’t worry guys, speculative interest in the miners will take care of itself as it always does. The value created in the miners by higher metals prices WILL be reflected in share prices regardless of how small in number the interested audience is. Bigger smarter money will make it so and the gains witnessed will create enthusiastic students of the sector overnight. Of course, many of those students will urgently buy first and study later (if they are smart). The rest will “get it” just in time to go all-in at the top.
What the sector really needs now is for silver to confirm gold. When it does, even the gold miners will do much better, not just the silver miners.
Silver probably has to perform better versus the dollar before it can turn around versus gold.
New low today for SLV vs GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p11469092144&a=672678565
Like I said (paraphrasing) that supposedly important gold-silver ratio will soar well past 100. . .and some of you guys STILL won’t have a clue how things are unfolding in 2019.
Chris, did you have a clue in late 2015 when you said that a rate hike would be bad for gold? I told you 2-3 months before that first hike that it would be good for gold — and it was. Gold gained about 30% in 2016. Further, did you have a clue when you said on February 24th, 2016 that the S&P would not be challenging its high anytime soon? It gained almost 10% in the following 2 months and was at a new high in 2 more months. Also on 2/24/16, you said that gold should continue to do well as long as stocks remained weak. Well both were significantly higher by that summer. (I picked 2/24/16 at random, btw.)
Finally, the gold-silver (or silver-gold) ratio has clear, not supposed, value as an indicator. One should not need to be a gold bug to know that.
You’ll see, the sector WILL do better once silver turns up vs gold.
Items that could send the GSR spiking higher from here include a market crash, economic collapse, or war.
Technically, a significantly higher GSR is possible but unlikely — at LEAST in the near term.
Personally, I don’t place a ton of importance on the Gold:Silver ratio as a timing tool, but I do like to see the ration coming down from a peak, as an indicator that Silver is starting to play catch-up and will start to out-perform on a percentage basis. That is usually a clue that bull move is on stronger footing.
The GSR is pretty extreme at present, so I agree that it would take something pretty drastic (like all out war or a crash) to push it much higher.
I believe the point Mr. T has been making is that it was the yield curve and rates that assisted Gold, along with a US Dollar that has been weakening, but that isn’t the only factor either. There has been the Fedbabble about them potentially cutting rates in July, the geopolitical tensions with the US & Iran, the trade wars with China and for a while it looked like Mexico, Brexit, and a Eurozone with many warts and pimples.
It isn’t right to put too much focus on just the Gold:Silver ratio, and likewise, it isn’t smart to dismiss it completely and take jabs at people who are watching for when Silver will start to reclaim more ground on Gold.
Different strokes for different folks.
I didn’t say that it is a timing tool, just that it has clear value for those who understand it. For example, the fact that silver can’t seem to get a leg up on gold might be indicating systemic stress of the sort that has the market worried about a crisis. As Bob Hoye likes to point out, the ratio acts as a credit spread. Gold is the superior money so it will catch the big bid when fear of something in the market is elevated.
Aside from that, one thing that is clear in markets/human nature is that there is nothing new under the sun. Therefore, the GSR is not something to be ignored when analyzing the sector. It typically rises during a gold bear and falls during a gold bull and nothing suggests that it will be different this time. That does not mean that it will move like it did in 2010-11 anytime soon, but a bet that it will underperform gold during a gold bull market is a bet against the odds.
SLV vs GLD is just as monthly oversold now as it was at the peak of the 2008 panic and will probably only get worse if there’s some kind of crisis (as mentioned above). SLV:GLD has now been monthly oversold a total of two times: 2008 and today.
SLV is a weekly chart “buy” and SIL has delivered roughly 3:1 leverage vs SLV since the two bottomed a few weeks ago. That is not a sign that the GSR will head well past 100 anytime soon. Possibly more telling and bullish is the quarterly chart bull hammer that has formed (the candle is entirely below the lower Bollinger band, too – a first for the ratio and unlikely to last). The quarter ends in four days.
Hi Matthew, I agree with the points you just made about the GSR ratio rising in bear markets and falling in bull markets, and didn’t mean to insinuate that you were using it personally as a timing tool. I just happened to post underneath your response, but I was being more general in nature.
Mr T has taken jabs at people in the past in the PM sector that were using the GSR as a timing tool when it gets over 80:1, and obviously the ratio can stay like that longer than some expected. I was simply making the point that really the GSR isn’t a timing mechanism, but more of a lagging indicator that when it comes down that Silver is gaining on Gold in more of a bullish part of the cycle where mini-me out performs the prime mover – gold.
I don’t agree with Mr T that the GSR means completely “nothing” as it can be instructive on the general trend – when there is strength in the initial move up in Gold the ratio grows, and then the ratio falls when Golds growth gets superseded by the growth in Silver. I don’t think it is the same as the price of Corn Flakes to bicycle grease as he’s stated before (which I realize is comic relief on his part, but quite dismissive of a ratio that some market participants do actually look at… like the S&P:Gold or Dollar:Gold).
Regardless, I’m still in the camp that Silver will eventually get dragged higher and gain on Gold when things get moving, and this will bring the GSR down and confirm the trend is strong in the PMs.
Cheers!
Bottom line: It’s great that silver is a buy versus the dollar but our silver juniors will really light up when it’s a buy versus gold. I don’t believe that buy signal is far off and will be eating crow if it is!
Bring on the rise in Silver and the silver miners.
Overall, most of the Silver Producers got a bid recently, and a few gapped higher on strong volume:
> 2 month Candleglance #Chart of #Silver #Producers:
$AG $PAAS $CDE $HOC.L $FSM $USAS $SVM $EXK $ASM $EXN.TO $SCZ.V $IPT.V
The bearishness that persists in Silver in articles like this does have my contrarian alarm bells ringing, but I’ll admit it has been slow to get going in the face of a nice breakout in Gold.
______________________________________
Tarnished Outlook For Silver
By Anna Coulling
https://www.investing.com/analysis/a-tarnished-outlook-for-silver-unlike-gold-200434295
Silver stinks at the moment and I think its gonna take more than a couple of positive weeks in the gold market to change such sentiment.
Historically speaking, a GSR ratio around 90 is rather high and therefore we should see that ratio slowly decline, particularly if gold continues to shine as it is beneficial to the overall PMs markets. If the gold move becomes an established bull-market in the longer term then eventually silver will catch up and overtake. Patience is a virtue!
Agreed. That is the point we were making up above regarding the GSR and it is a confirming data point when the ratio starts coming down and Silver starts outperforming. No 2 rallies or cycles are the same, but those stating that won’t happen this time around are going to be wrong-footed and miss the gains when the Silver assets take off. Most of the Silver miners have done very well the last 2 weeks despite the boring flatline in Silver pricing.
Ahhh, finally you are admitting that the little green men have been suppressing the gold price.
What is the “P” for…..
Matt,
I’m looking for which stocks gold or silver I should be adding to if/when a pullback takes place over the next few days.
So far I own JAG, IPT, GGI, NVO (novo), SGN (scorpion) FR (first Magestic), U.S.A and EXN(excellon). Of the ones I’ve listed I feel IPT is still waiting to leave the station. When it does I guess it will test and go through the .41 cent cnd mark. But I feel I should be buying more gold stocks….maybe more JAG or Novo? I did read EX’s thoughts on JAG last week. I know Sandstorm is a smart bet for the long term too, but am waiting for it to move down 10% + before I buy it. Any thoughts on the subject would be helpful.
If you want liquidity as well as leverage, you might consider EGO and NGD. Both are appealing technically and can deliver gains to match those of companies one-tenth their size. I don’t own them but might very soon. Then there’s BTG and SSRM. Both are probably a little safer than EGO and NGD yet should still do very well.
Novo, JAG and SGN are also worthy and have the potential for much greater gains.
I agree about IPT and would be a buyer right now if I didn’t already have plenty. However, if you think Chris could be right about the gold-silver ratio going much higher, you’d be much better off sticking to the gold stocks.
Thanks Matt,
I’ll look into your suggestions.
That’s a good list Confused, and it really comes down to which Sector do you want to own more of Gold or Silver/Zinc/Lead and which subsectors do you want exposure to (ie…. Mid-Tier producers, Smaller producers, Development stage companies that will be takeover candidates or near-term producers, Explorers and discovery plays, Prospect Generators / Land Banks, or Royalty companies & Streamers.)
Many companies will do well in a Gold or Silver bull market, but there are always ones that will outperform their peer group because they are currently more undervalued and due for a re-rating when more analysts are back covering the space, that have improving margins that will outpace their peers, that have
expansion in resources or throughput at their mines, or that have more leverage due to their metals make up and grade.
For Silver miners:
Personally I consider smaller silver producers like IPT, EXN, SCZ, ASM, BHS, HMX, etc…. “optionality” plays because their economics go from not so great to greatly improved as the Silver/Zinc/Lead Prices increase. As a result, they can have a lot of oomph as Silver ratchets up $1 at a time. Most of those also have the ability to impress with the drill bit as they don’t have a large of reserves, so more ounces defined help the mine life concerns.
Then there are more solid mid-tier Silver/Zinc/Lead producers like SVM, USAS, FSM, EXK that are good if want a bit more stability but outperformance over many of the larger behemoth companies. In 2016 AG and CDE also had really good performance for being large companies.
For development plays in Silver there is of course MAG, BCM, AXU, MSV, SBR that all are moving towards production, with AXU being my pick of that litter, and much more upside as the Silver price plays along. I also like KTN and ABRA as more optionality plays on Silver that have larger lower grade resources and need higher prices (like BCM).
For Silver Explorers it gets much higher risk but potentially higher reward. MMG (Alexco’s neighbor) has really high grade, as does SIL Silvercrest (but they’ve already made an epic move). Some of the other ones I own or am considering taking a punt on are DV, REX, BBB, KS, DEF, BCK, BTT, SSE, PSL, NUAG, and SVB.
In the Gold Sector, there are so many more companies and too many to review.
For the Medium Gold producers I’ve enjoyed the gains in KNT K92 Mining (and believe it has farther to run), but trimmed it way back to position in MUX and ROXG. Over the last year I’ve staked out positions in AR and EQX as solid Mid-tiers as well.
Some of the smaller Gold producers that are more like optionality plays, that may surprise folks as Gold prices keep rising are JAG, ANX, ALO, BTR, LODE, IO, MKO, MXSG, NEE, RNX, MND, SGN and even TRY.AX. Again, these are higher risk – higher return smaller Gold producers, that need higher prices to break out of their slumps.
For Gold Developers I like FPC, GSV, ORE, SBB, and TML. Heck, I may even reposition soon in NVO just to put a fishing pole in the Pilbara.
For Gold explorers there are too many to name and get into, but if there are any that you are looking at and you want to review I recommend going to their page on ceo.ca where investors gnash teeth and brawl daily debating the good, the bad, and the ugly. 🙂
Cheers!
Good info Ex,
thanks!!
I’m loaded up on LODE & have a wild card placed on MXSG. Adelante!!
Glad to share ideas confused and if you see any miners that you’re animated by please share which ones and why.
Personally I’m more overweight the Gold & Silver small and medium Producers at this point in the cycle, because they’re so dang cheap, and a bit more lliquid adn thus more reliable that they’ll get a bid as things heat up in the sector. I haven’t been disappointed as most of them have caught a bid the last 2 weeks and are up nicely, putting me back in the money in a number of them.
As things get progress, I’ll likely migrate down the food chain more into more developers and explorers. There are many Gold explorers I’m tracking (a few dozen really) and I’ve just started nibbling at a few of them recently for this year’s exploration campaigns. I’ve retained a few from last year that I’ve been sitting on, but as expected, the Jrs haven’t had much action yet as it is earlier days in this next impulse leg higher.
As some of the producers grown and get more properly valued, my plan is to do what I did in 2016 and trim the winnings and store them in Royalty & Streaming companies for slow and steady appreciation, and then put a certain amount to work in a basket of speculative exploration plays. I like to make the initial gains in the producers though and then diversify a bit.
Hey Buzz – I’ve got a small position in both Lode and Mexus as well. They are both tiny micro-cap stocks, but after following them both for years, I still believe they have a lot more potential to get production numbers up, than 95% of the exploration plays that will end up being nothing in the end. At least both Comstock and Mexus have real mines, equipment on site, permits in place, and can monetize the higher metals prices by producing and selling the metals, not just marketing presentations. 🙂
Ever Upward!
I went all in with JAG, I mean it’s my only play right now. After watching MAD MEN again I just couldn’t resist. Sometimes in life it’s all or nothing. At least it won’t be boring! DT
DT – I still have my JAG position, and it has been running the last week or so, but I’ll likely get more aggressive with it once all this capital raise and reverse split has played through. I still remember in the 2010 and 2011 how JAG was considered a mid-tier and was prominently featured in the mining indexes before it imploded from the long fall from grace in 2012-2015. I got re-positioned in late 2015 and added in early 2016 and had a hell of a trade, but then lightened back up. I averaged down last year and a bit this year, but have just been in hold mode.
Once the share count is more reasonable with a higher price per unit, I believe more institutional funds will get positioned because they are producing 80,000-90,000 ounces of Gold per year at 2 mines, and have the 3 mining complex on care and maintenance that can be kicked on pretty quickly. Also, their infill drilling and step out drilling has been very good expanding their resources, and this will ultimately expand the mine life (one of the knocks against them). There is still a lot more Gold in their belt to be had, but it didn’t make sense for them to go after it in lousy sentiment when the markets wouldn’t have rewarded them for growing reserves. Post restructuring, and now that the PMs are on the move again, JAG should finally get noticed again, and the market cap should rise closer to many of it’s peers doing close to 100K ounces per year.
Ex, listen to this old obscure song from 1961 called “Once In A While” by The Chimes, it is short but sweet but even better they feature a bevy of cars from this era. DT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-ZGFyBJ1k8
8 hours ago
This article is ****.
The Protocols Of Zion
Published 1903
A one page summary
* Place our agents and helpers everywhere
* Take control of the media and use it in propaganda for our plans
* Start fights between different races, classes and religions
* Use bribery, threats and blackmail to get our way
* Use Freemasonic Lodges to attract potential public officials
* Appeal to successful people’s egos
* Appoint puppet leaders who can be controlled by blackmail
* Abolish all rights and freedoms, except the right of force by us
* Sacrifice people (including Jews sometimes) when necessary
* Eliminate religion; replace it with science and materialism
* Control the education system to spread deception and destroy intellect
* Rewrite history to our benefit
* Create entertaining distractions
* Corrupt minds with filth and perversion
* Keep the masses in poverty and perpetual labor
* Take possession of all wealth, property and (especially) gold
* Use gold to manipulate the markets, cause depressions etc.
* Introduce a progressive tax on wealth
* Replace sound investment with speculation
* Make long-term interest-bearing loans to governments
* Give bad advice to governments and everyone else
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
1903
Time to get into the 21st century, Irish.
Only lunatics never adjust their beliefs as times change.
That’s one incredibly ignorant comment, CFS. History, logic and reason are not your strengths.
Well said cfs
Lunatics………would be the people who put out the BS to begin with….
Neocons are part of the left, Jerry, whether they know it or not. That’s why they share CNN’s stance on war and resort to calling sane and honest people lunatics when they disagree with them. They are very dangerous turds to put it nicely.
Agree……..
If CFS and Gator would put their brainwashing and fears aside, they’d say “wait a minute, that “forgery” was written well over one hundred years ago yet everything in it has come to pass!”
Up to date…..forgery on high speed…..
On June 24, 2019 at 1:54 pm,
OOTB Jerry says:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6m49vNjEGs
You can start at the 25 min mark…..
100 years before it was the deep state, it was called the invisible government…
“This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”
—Congressman Charles Lindbergh
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” —Ernest Hemingway
——————–
And what do we have today?
Even president Garfield told it like it is (and likely died for it):
“Whomsoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.”
Warren Buffett, too:
“The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislature. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. It makes no difference to a widow with her saving in a 5 percent passbook account whether she pays 100 percent income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation, or pays no income taxes during years of 5 percent inflation. Either way, she is ‘taxed’ in a manner that leave her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 120 percent income tax, but doesn’t seem to notice that 5 percent inflation is the economic equivalent.”
—————
Try explaining this stuff to the average voter and he’ll glaze over and walk away.
5% passbook I wish. TIMES CHANGE……Need to adjust!
Can’t grasp the point, eh?
“The very word “secrecy” is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and to secret proceedings.
We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it…… Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it.
And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment.
That I do not intend to permit to the extent that it is in my control. And no official of my Administration, whether his rank is high or low, civilian or military, should interpret my words here tonight as an excuse to censor the news, to stifle dissent, to cover up our mistakes or to withhold from the press and the public the facts they deserve to know.”
“If you are awaiting a finding of “clear and present danger,” then I can only say that the danger has never been more clear and its presence has never been more imminent.
It requires a change in outlook, a change in tactics, a change in missions–by the government, by the people, by every businessman or labor leader, and by every newspaper. For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence–on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.
Its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumor is printed, no secret is revealed. It conducts the Cold War, in short, with a war-time discipline no democracy would ever hope or wish to match.”
JFK, ADDRESS BEFORE THE AMERICAN NEWSPAPER PUBLISHERS ASSOCIATION, APRIL 27, 1961
I am covered since I served…, but, it is a dumb ass idea …
If, the Pentagon…..can cough up the $50 Trillion (this is a corrected number by Fitts)
No need to have a WAR TAX…
https://www.projectveritas.com/2019/06/24/insider-blows-whistle-exec-reveals-google-plan-to-prevent-trump-situation-in-2020-on-hidden-cam/