Jordan Roy-Byrne - Techncial Commentary – Wed 3 Jul, 2019

The Gold Market – The technical set up, stocks reaction, and vs the US markets

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me for a general discussion on the gold market. WE start with some of the technical factors, that while overbought, are a longer term positive sign for the bulls. We also address the recation in the stocks and weigh what it all means with US markets heading to all time highs with gold breaking out.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site and follow along with his metals commentary.

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Comments:
  1. On July 3, 2019 at 2:26 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Beginning to enjoy listening to Jordan more so than in the past. Actually I think it was quite boring for a gold newsletter owner to keep watching the same flat lining of most charts concerning gold. Lately, things have changed and Jordan is excited about the future like most of us.
    His final statement though carries some weight. “At some point in order to sustain the uptrend, the momentum in the gold market needs to out perform the stock market.” Agreed. There won’t be that massive shifting of funds until the standard markets fall!

  2. On July 3, 2019 at 2:26 pm,
    mineralsrmoney says:

    My measured move is 1700-1750 sometime in 2020 and perhaps later in 2019 catching many off guard. Aggressive? Yes, but markets seldom do what participants expect / believe. Nonetheless, it’s been a long time coming and is here and now. Enjoy Phase III, it’s going to be spectacular and fun to watch and participate.

    • On July 3, 2019 at 5:52 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      That is an aggressive prediction but plausible. Im personally a little more cautious however.

  3. On July 3, 2019 at 3:55 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The HUI has plenty of room to run and could hardly look better…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=0&id=p23102174647&a=612640758

  4. On July 3, 2019 at 3:58 pm,
    Matthew says:
  5. On July 3, 2019 at 4:39 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On July 3, 2019 at 4:49 pm,
    TraderGab says:

    Looks like this chart is confirming Jordan’s comment : https://i.postimg.cc/NGmRG38r/gold.png

  7. On July 3, 2019 at 10:48 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Something tells me there is big trouble ahead for the global economy. The general consensus in the last 12-18 months has changed drastically. The looming trade wars are just the latest development that sheds a negative light on the worlds financial troubles.

    Im a little surprised that many central banks the world over are engaging in interest rate reductions as this is taking away one of their only options to fight off a potential crash in world markets in the future. If the world was to face another GFC type occurrance in the next year or 2, then what will the central banks do if theyve already used up all of their rate cut options?
    Surely QE (or money printing as we more commonly refer to it) will not have any instant positive effect? Especially when one sees how it last eventuated; Funds being tied up by the wealthy and not passed down to the average citizen.

    What other options are there? Maybe bail-ins are not as far away as we think. But pillaging from peoples bank accounts might not be so straight forward. With interest rates being so low and therefore realising little return on savings accounts, many may well be tempted to “park their cash elsewhere”. Mortgage accounts, physical investments, straight out cash in the hand, this might just turn into one hell of a sh*tfight between the esteemed leaders and their people. Of course this is just heresay at present, but there is an increasing chance that another financial fall-out is awaiting in the not too distant future.

    With the worlds leaders having done little to rectify the issues that plagued the globe during the GFC, coupled with the increasing greed and debt throughout society, where will our saving grace come from? Lets not forget there is little wiggle room in the way of rate cuts. Also a worrying trend in modern history shows how each major financial crisis is worse than the preceding crisis. This is no coincedence as the wealthy elites greed knows no bounds, they continue to pillage the population and planet earth all in the name of the almighty dollar!

    Judgement day beckons once again!

    • On July 4, 2019 at 7:14 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/us-stock-market-hits-new-record-high-whats-really-going
      So what does all of this mean? It’s too early to tell for sure, but what the chart tells me is there’s a high probability the economic cycle ended and started to turn down last September, and 2019’s nominal highs in equities (May and July) are sending false signals about what’s really going on. Combine this with the fact that gold recently broke out of a multi-year downtrend and the argument becomes stronger. Namely, that the cycle really has turned and the macro environment today is far different from what it was during the great 2011-2018 equity bull market.

      Of course, it’s possible the equity market is just taking a breather and the bull market in real terms will carry on for years to come, but that’s not my view. There are just too many other divergences happening right now that point to an increasingly unstable and unhealthy situation, such as new records in negative yielding bonds, a complete disconnect between macro economic data and stock prices, and Bitcoin’s near quadrupling in price 2019 to-date.

      Personally, I think the cycle’s over and we’ve entered a new era of increased chaos within the economy and, more specifically, the global financial system — and the SPY/GLD ratio is flashing this warning signal. As always, time will tell.

      • On July 4, 2019 at 7:17 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        HATS OFF TO>>>>Matthew……has been mentioning this ratio….for a long time….the SPY/GLD ratio

        • On July 4, 2019 at 8:07 am,
          Ozibatla says:

          Good comments Jerry. I tend to agree. Red flags appear to be popping up everywhere. The worlds awash in fraud, theft and corruption. It inevitably will boil to the surface

          • On July 4, 2019 at 8:14 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            ditto……….on …..”fraud, theft and corruption. It inevitably will boil to the surface”

        • On July 4, 2019 at 10:10 am,
          Matthew says:

          At least in real terms, say hi to the new stock bear.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Xo21L0ybE

          • On July 4, 2019 at 12:43 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂

    • On July 4, 2019 at 7:20 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      These days it doesn’t take much to see that The US is in a state of deep decline, but still the average citizen doesn’t get it. Even the endless wars will stop because The US can’t build planes that fly anymore and have drones with Chinese parts that get shot down by Russian equipment. DT

    • On July 4, 2019 at 6:35 pm,
      mineralsrmoney says:

      Nice write. Expecting negative rates globally; QE; Bail-Ins (legislation already in place Europe; Canada; US) etc….etc….and the next upcoming crisis to dwarf that of ’08-’09 making that look like a picnic.

  8. On July 4, 2019 at 7:33 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday repeated his call for the United States to devalue the USD,

  9. On July 4, 2019 at 7:33 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Toronto real estate is seeing bidding wars again, it must be money coming from Hong Kong trying to escape control from mainland China, for some reason the money is not flowing to Vancouver.

    • On July 4, 2019 at 7:48 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Here might be an answer…..old habits are hard to break……Piling on Debt….
      https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/13/the-state-of-the-canadian-debt-slaves/

    • On July 4, 2019 at 7:50 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Does Toronto have the surcharge…on Chinese buyers…..like Vancouver?

      • On July 4, 2019 at 7:53 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        No, but we are also the banking center and The Asians like to go where the money is! LOL! DT

        • On July 4, 2019 at 8:15 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          🙂

  10. On July 4, 2019 at 8:32 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Thought this was a great comment….To Americans…..Happy 4th of JULY…..
    You can see this most clearly on campuses today: The vicious and growing hatred of free speech; the ceaseless trashing of America, of American history, of American government, of American values; the relentless attacks on due process in the form of campus rape tribunals and Title IX kangaroo courts; the opposition to religious plurality and tolerance. The modern American university is, in microcosm, a good encapsulation of many of the major problems affecting American society today.

    These nasty values, of course, are increasingly spilling over into the broader culture. And that is a larger problem. The freedoms that we have taken for granted for decades and centuries do not just spring into existence on their own; they are vanishingly rare, not just from a historical perspective but in present-day terms as well. There is not a country in Europe that affords its citizens free speech protections the likes of which are found in America; there is no other country in the world in which the right to bear arms is a basic civic assumption; for goodness’s sake, our foundational document presumes the right of the people to overthrow their own government. These are unique and precious freedoms. They came to be only after a long series of difficult choices by men and women who had no guarantee of success. We are inestimably lucky to have them.

    This Fourth of July, remember that. Remember that the campus social justice warriors are wrong; remember that their counterparts on progressive cable television are wrong as well, and that their efforts to dismantle our invaluable liberties should be resisted at every opportunity. This holiday is not merely an excuse to grill out, drink beer and watch colorful explosions (though those things are very fun); it is a chance to remember why this country exists, why it has endured, and why we should rededicate ourselves every year to the continuation of the freedom with which we have been so long blessed.

  11. On July 4, 2019 at 9:44 am,
    cfs says:

    May I also wish all the best to readers on Independence Day.
    But may I also remind folks of what precipitated the move for independence; something the MSM always seem to forget.
    At a time when there was no income tax, no corporation tax and no capital gains tax, etc., what precipitated independence WAS A DOUBLING OF THE TARIFF ON TEA.
    England had the unmitigated gall to DOUBLE the tax on tea.They raised the tax from 2.5% to 5%.
    I’m sure the founding fathers have been tossing in their graves to know that those now living in the US have meekly accepted taxation increases to the current levels without a second revolution.