Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Wed 31 Jul, 2019

Ahead of the Fed meeting here’s what to understand for precious metals investors

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me to breakdown why he thinks we should all ignore the market reaction to the Fed statement today. For precious metals investors we can focus on a couple overarching themes that will continue to drive longer term price moves. We also discuss what Jordan is looking for in metals companies as some have really started to move.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site and follow along with his metals forecasts.

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  1. On July 31, 2019 at 11:23 am,
    b says:

    no comments today?

    is it just me that cant access this interview?

    • On July 31, 2019 at 11:26 am,
      Matthew says:

      Not just you.

  2. On July 31, 2019 at 11:23 am,
    Matthew says:

    This is not a chart I’d buy but GDX is holding up well:

  3. On July 31, 2019 at 11:26 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On July 31, 2019 at 11:39 am,
      Charles says:

      Hi Matthew – Is a gap fill possible? Seems like that would be to obvious and my thought is it would not get down to that level before it charged higher.

      • On July 31, 2019 at 11:44 am,
        Matthew says:

        If you are talking about that weekly chart gap, I do not think it will be filled at all. The daily one on 6/20 probably will but it still seems like we’ll go higher first.

  4. On July 31, 2019 at 11:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    I’ve repeated it for years: watch the bigger charts when something looks like an overbought “sell” or you might sell too much too soon. The weekly chart dominated the daily when the daily became very overbought and now that the weekly chart is very overbought, the monthly looks ready to do the same thing to it.
    It is definitely not always the case that the the charts “fire” in succession which is part of the reason that so many lose their position when they are (which is almost always during a bull market).
    For those who can access it: GDX monthly…

    • On July 31, 2019 at 12:06 pm,
      Charles says:

      I picked up on that previously from you. For a long time I never connected the dots about the daily showing the short term trend, the weekly showing the intermediate trend, and the monthly showing the long term trend. As the signals can be conflicting on all three charts, I realize now the importance of looking at all three to get a deeper perspective. What you state above reminds me of the domino effect when all three timeframes are in alignment. Good techical chart reading advice for all.

      • On July 31, 2019 at 12:10 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, they do “fall” like dominoes when everything is just right, like now.

  5. On July 31, 2019 at 12:12 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On July 31, 2019 at 12:15 pm,
    Matthew says:

    It’s not often that we see gaps on the daily gold chart but we saw one yesterday (and it has now been filled).
    The following chart will show today’s action this evening…

  7. On July 31, 2019 at 12:26 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Free stuff………..
    While Trump’s $267 billion is bad, the Democrats’ plans are worse. We counted $297 billion proposed by Biden, $690 billion from Buttigieg, $3.8 trillion from Warren, $4 trillion from Sanders and $4.3 trillion from Harris. That would double what the entire federal government spends now.

    Senator Harris “wins” the free stuff contest.

    • On July 31, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Harris should have stuck with prosecution………Math is not her strong suit…… LOL

  8. On July 31, 2019 at 12:41 pm,
    larry says:

    /GC (Q)…will be testing the TAS profile bottom at 1391.8…It will hold on the first test…Then a re-test of the highs will be in order…my2

  9. On July 31, 2019 at 12:56 pm,
    Charles says:

    Novo Resources looks like today (now) is a good time to buy on the drawdown IMHO. I believe the stock is at a strong support level.

  10. On July 31, 2019 at 1:01 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    This is the “buy the rumor and sell the fact'” Cory and I had talked about last week—the 25 basis point decrease was also expected and we allowed yesterday as to the probably sell off of both the conventional and PM markets. The Fed didn’t give the future folloers of Fed action much to chew on but I wouldn’t expect another cut necessarily in Sept unless data really starts to stink. Buy the dip is the mantra again but don’t be short term aggressive since I have the feeling we’re going to be in pause mentality for some time. Allow the stocks to bottom and come back to you.

  11. On July 31, 2019 at 1:08 pm,
    Robert Moriarty says:


    Really good advice. When everyone is on one side of the boat, that’s a bad thing. People are way too bullish and that’s when the market smacks you in the face. I said the same thing yesterday about “Buy the News.” Corrections are a good thing.

    • On July 31, 2019 at 2:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The action immediately following a Fed announcement is very often a one-off. The miners had an equally large drop after the December announcement but went up another 13% in the next 2 weeks. The daily chart looks worse this time so I do expect more selling tomorrow but I doubt that this is the pullback I’ve been waiting for (that lasts at least 2-3 weeks).

  12. On July 31, 2019 at 1:41 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Bob, I agree. We had a nice spike in the PM stocks but if one looks at a large number of their weekly and monthly charts, there were very few breakouts. In other words, for most of them, trading ranges are still the norm. Personally, I am more bullish then I’ve been in the last 4-5 years, but won’t become delirious until we break out of weekly and monthly trading ranges to the upside. My end of the year and 2020 are still my readings for the best chancr of a really significant breakout.

  13. On July 31, 2019 at 1:48 pm,
    Charles says:

    Doc – I know you have talked about the 50 week moving average as being a significant hurtle on the weekly as well as tight bolly bands and general flattened out moving averages. is there anything else you look at on a weekly monthly time frame that gives you comfort in becoming more aggressive in your purchases? Thanks.

    • On July 31, 2019 at 1:59 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Charles, I beiive I’ve mentioned the 50 MONTHLY moving average for gold. I wouldn’t be surprised at all whether we move down and challenge that. The other thing I would watch is the fact a lot of these stocks had significant mid range gaps when they moved up. I bet we move down to fill those. Some had break out gaps but I would be surprised if we go that low again. However, if we fill some of those mid range gaps, then I could tell you better if I feel we have more downside or not. One of my proxy stocks I’m following with a nice mid range gap is AUY. I’ll be watching that stock very carefully. That gap is on the daily chart and I’ll not be particularly aggressive until that gap is close to be filled (if it is). If that gap is filled, it has the potential of forming a beautiful inverse head and shoulders formation for AUY. By the way, sometimes I think Powell did his cut just to get Trump off his back for awhile. His answers today were all over the map and there was no definite path going forward as far as I can tell with his answers. I don’t think he’s going to give a lot of hope again for awhile for the markets.

      • On July 31, 2019 at 2:34 pm,
        Charles says:

        BTW – That would be quite a fall for Yamana. Maybe time to harvest some losses from prior trading mistakes to create some additional ammo for buying after some of the stocks pull back. At this point, I have tossed all the stock that were dogs, so it would be further trimming from what I have already done. I know Bob M is not a fan of waiting until year end to take losses so now is probably as good a time as any.

  14. On July 31, 2019 at 2:23 pm,
    Charles says:

    Thanks Doc. I don’t listen to Powell or anyone else at the Fed anymore. They are all full of rubbish as far as I am concerned. i do think they are walking a very thin tightrope between trying to keep markets from crashing and making sure the system (whatever is left of it) remains liquid. What a house of cards.

  15. On July 31, 2019 at 2:59 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Charles, you are right; it is a house of cards and Trump is in a race of time to avert disaster. I will be surprised if he makes it.

  16. On July 31, 2019 at 3:43 pm,
    Matthew says:
  17. On July 31, 2019 at 4:11 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On August 1, 2019 at 6:36 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      Guys: I’ll throw this in for free. Matthew and Excelsior are better than 90% of the guys making a living writing about financial matters and I have told that to both of them. They are exceptional all of the time. That said, anytime anyone starts talking about what markets are going to do, they are expressing an opinion. And just as my opinion is dead wrong on a regular basis, in this case I think Matthew is way too optimistic.

      Sentiment has proven to be far more valuable in my investing than anything else I have seen or read. I spent a lot of time talking about it in my latest book. The sentiment in silver marked the top to the day in 2011. Over a month ago gold was giving end of rally sentiment. Corrections are not to be ignored or avoided. Everything goes up and everything goes down. Live with it.

      The DSI on gold hit 96 on June 24 and silver hit 91 for the first of three times on July 18. Those figures highly suggest a correction is coming, perhaps a larger correction than we can now guess. Sentiment says be cautious where you step, there are a lot of mines out there.

      I hate to disagree with Matthew but I think he’s both brilliant and wrong.

      • On August 1, 2019 at 8:22 am,
        Matthew says:

        Thanks Bob, I get it and do understand the case for what you’re saying. I am far from sure of myself here when looking at the next week or three but remain quite optimistic based on the looks of the bigger charts (weekly/monthly/quarterly) and the propensity of bull markets to cause prices to levitate or even drift higher in the face of ugly short term charts (daily and intraday) that are on clear sell signals. And there are currently many very ugly daily charts among the miners.

        In summary, I don’t see a lot of downside unless the weekly charts fall apart — which I also don’t see due to the great looks of the monthly, quarterly and even yearly charts.

        In other news, the HUI stalled at clear and important resistance and is now building the fuel needed for another push:

        • On August 2, 2019 at 2:41 am,
          Robert Moriarty says:


          All true but a DSI of 96 in any commodity says the next major move will be a correction. I think we are going into a liquidity event unlike any in history and lots of things will get smacked.

      • On August 1, 2019 at 8:25 am,
        charles says:

        Thanks Bob for disclosing the DSI readings. Those are always very helpful in gauging where we are.

      • On August 1, 2019 at 8:37 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Good thoughts …….everyone……….

  18. On July 31, 2019 at 4:33 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Put the PMs reaction to the rate cut purely into isolation and it become somewhat of a contradiction. In the past when rates were raised, the gold price would go higher. Now with rates going down so too does gold. Fundamentals suggest this is not supposed to happen. I understand why it has but it is interesting nonetheless.

    The whole “buy the rumour, sell the news” sentiment is certainly at play here.

    • On July 31, 2019 at 4:43 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s always in play when the rumor is a sure thing.

      • On August 1, 2019 at 12:31 pm,
        Matthew says:

        …And when too many people have the same idea in markets, the idea doesn’t work.

  19. On July 31, 2019 at 4:56 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    I hope gold hangs around at the level it is for awhile because of the observation of the potential left translated intermediate cycle. The longer it hangs up here the more likely any downturn should be insignificant. The coming weeks should be another good purchase time if we get the pullback expected.

    • On July 31, 2019 at 5:54 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      I agree Doc. This current price range in gold is hopefully building a solid range of support when one looks from a longer term perspective.

      I still find the reaction in the immediate aftermath of the rate cut as a little weird. I did expect a sell-off but not before a quick knee-jerk reaction to the upside.

  20. On July 31, 2019 at 5:17 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I’m not sure about Brixton, but I will be watching it closely tomorrow and the next few days if it holds. DT

  21. On July 31, 2019 at 5:32 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    This is a BIG ONE>……9/11
    NY Fire Commissioners Demand New 9/11 Probe, Citing “Overwhelming Evidence of Pre-Planted Explosives”

    • On July 31, 2019 at 5:33 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Get the handcuffs ready……….

    • On July 31, 2019 at 5:34 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      New York area fire commissioners have called for a new investigation into 9/11, claiming that “overwhelming evidence” of “pre-planted explosives…caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings.” The Franklin Square and Munson Fire District outside of Queens, New York made history by becoming the first legislative body in the country to support a new investigation into the events of 9/11, according to Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.

      The resolution, read aloud and passed during a July 24, 2019 meeting and calling for the investigation was drafted by Commissioner Christopher Gioia and was unanimously approved by the five commissioners.

      According to Activist Post, Commissioner Christopher Gioia said: “We’re a tight-knit community and we never forget our fallen brothers and sisters. You better believe that when the entire fire service of New York State is on board, we will be an unstoppable force. We were the first fire district to pass this resolution. We won’t be the last.”

  22. On July 31, 2019 at 5:39 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    Six of the top 10 lowest cost mines shown have seen their costs decline during Q1 2019, led by Kirkland Lake’s Fosterville located in Australia. Fosterville Mine has been the leader in cost efficiency for the past two quarters. Their gold production rose to 356,230 ounces in 2018, with 400,000 ounces anticipated by the end of 201

    • On July 31, 2019 at 5:40 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      A welcome addition to the top-ten list is the Canadian-based Semofa’s Natougou-Boungo mine located in Burkina Faso. This open pit mine has shown considerable promise while keeping mining operation costs at $534 an ounce.

      • On July 31, 2019 at 5:42 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Barrick’s Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic also tops the charts for world’s lowest gold production cost at below $550 an ounce in 2019. Barrick mined 581,000 ounces of gold in 2018 at a cost of $623 per ounce. The company has announced a billion-dollar expansion project.

  23. On July 31, 2019 at 6:20 pm,
    markedtofuture says:

    James Comey’s next reckoning is imminent — this time for leaking

    The Justice Department’s chief watchdog is preparing a damning report on James Comey’s conduct in his final days as FBI director that likely will conclude he leaked classified information and showed a lack of candor after his own agency began looking into his feud with President Trump over the Russia probe.

    Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz’s team referred Comey for possible prosecution under the classified information protection laws, but Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors working for Attorney General William Barr reportedly have decided to decline prosecution – a decision that’s likely to upset Comey’s conservative critics.

    Prosecutors found the IG’s findings compelling but decided not to bring charges because they did not believe they had enough evidence of Comey’s intent to violate the law, according to multiple sources.

  24. On July 31, 2019 at 6:59 pm,
    markedtofuture says:

    NY Fire Commissioners Demand New 9/11 Probe, Citing “Overwhelming Evidence of Pre-Planted Explosives”

    New York area fire commissioners have called for a new investigation into 9/11, claiming that “overwhelming evidence” of “pre-planted explosives…caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings.” The Franklin Square and Munson Fire District outside of Queens, New York made history by becoming the first legislative body in the country to support a new investigation into the events of 9/11, according to Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.

  25. On July 31, 2019 at 7:33 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Despite today’s plunge, gold is still above $1400.10, the price it closed at on July 5th when its MACD gave its sell signal. So gold has had 3.5 weeks of correcting… UPWARD.

    It’s pretty hard to be overly concerned about this picture:

  26. On July 31, 2019 at 7:39 pm,
    Matthew says:

    It looks like the gold-silver ratio will soon resume its fall.
    GLD:SLV daily:

  27. On July 31, 2019 at 7:44 pm,
    Matthew says:

    With last week’s gap filled, SLV just might catch the bears off guard…

  28. On July 31, 2019 at 8:50 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The copper miners (COPX) are going much lower versus the gold miners (GDX)…

  29. On July 31, 2019 at 9:10 pm,
    Matthew says:

    AG closed down 6.4% today. If it does the same tomorrow, it will be at support and become a buy in my book. Yes, it could go lower than that but probably not by much nor for very long…

    • On July 31, 2019 at 9:15 pm,
      Matthew says:
      • On July 31, 2019 at 9:40 pm,
        Buzz says:

        Who does Peter Schiff think is better qualified to serve as President? Better yet, why doesn’t he run himself

        • On July 31, 2019 at 11:20 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Good, qualified people aren’t allowed and never will be. Schiff knows that. He was part of Ron Paul’s campaign in 2008 so he got to see the machine at work first hand.

  30. On August 1, 2019 at 2:11 am,
    cfs says:

    Well! None of the 20 Democrat candidates are qualified.
    They are all pure Marxists.
    They believe the only purpose of government is to achieve a fair distribution of the pie among the people.
    In common with all Marxist idiots they simply do not understand that the quality of life is improved by growing the pie just as much as dividing the pie “fairly”.
    Absolute moron economics to focus only on a fixed size of pie.
    Even more moronic to assume that government can decide what is best.
    Government is the problem, not the solution. Has any part of any economy ever been run efficiently?
    We have a problem with education BECAUSE government got involved.
    We have a problem with student loans, because government got involved with financing of higher education.
    The greatness of America has historically existed because government involvement was one of the lowest of all countries. (Together with an abundance of resources.)

    • On August 1, 2019 at 7:28 am,
      Charles says:

      +1. The same could be said for residential real estate finance. HUD requires 3% downpayment. How is that sane.

      • On August 1, 2019 at 7:35 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        In California…..people making $157,000 average, are living in $1.5 Milllion mortgaged homes….Debt 10x …..when it use to be 2x……what a hoot..

  31. On August 1, 2019 at 2:14 am,
    cfs says:

    oops that posted, before I corrected it fully.

    After “efficiently” insert “by pure government direction”

  32. On August 1, 2019 at 2:25 am,
    cfs says:
  33. On August 1, 2019 at 2:29 am,
    cfs says:
  34. On August 1, 2019 at 5:52 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Interest Only……..
    Endgame: Starting In 2024, All US Debt Issuance Will Be Used To Pay Only For Interest On Debt

    • On August 1, 2019 at 7:24 am,
      Charles says:

      What is the old saying Jerry – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it LOL!

      • On August 1, 2019 at 7:25 am,
        Charles says:

        Joke’s on us, literally.

        • On August 1, 2019 at 7:32 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Charles……….I agree with you 100%……
          Worst part…….99.999% of the people don’t get it….

          • On August 1, 2019 at 7:53 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            People are self possessed, most don’t communicate unless they are talking about themselves then they can drone on for hours. Conversation and listening skills are a lost art replaced by smart technology.

    • On August 1, 2019 at 8:54 am,
      cfs says:

      WHY do you REALLY think the US is lowering interest rates to zero?

      It hes less to do with the economy and more to do with interest payments on the debt.

      The US WILL REDUCE INTEREST PAYMENTS ON THE DEBT by lowering interest rates to wards zero.

      The US will do it slowly (to minimize panic and obfuscate what they are actually doing).

      As I wrote in this forum several weeks ago, eventually they (US) will be monetizing the debt, because no one will lend money to the US.
      AND as the value of the US dollar drops, inflation (what the government actually needs) will occur…..slowly and then quickly wiping out the apparent size of the debt relative to the economy.

      The US will not default as long as the banking system does not collapse (possible, if not probable), but will just print money.


      • On August 1, 2019 at 9:14 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        So, the date will be moved out with your assumption?…….the Debt will not be paid, and there is certainly a default coming…..just a matter of time…..the DEBT is IMPOSSIBLE to REPAY…..
        World wide DEBT, will cause other nations NOT to Lend or purchase Treasuries…..
        Better think in terms of Fasbe 56…….the US Govt is not showing any records….
        It , is all polluted at this stage…..
        You are relying on a FAKE FED…for all the FAKE answers…..JMO

        • On August 1, 2019 at 9:16 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          No disrespect intended……..always….glad to hear your thoughts….

          • On August 1, 2019 at 9:30 am,
            cfs says:

            I sometimes agree with Chris Temple, sometimes not.
            I try to write things as I see it, not as I would like them to be.

            The main difference between other commentators and myself is probably in the amount to which the Fed controls the market and the extent to which the Fed is controlled by the White House. (Rightly or wrongly.)

        • On August 1, 2019 at 10:00 am,
          cfs says:

          It is historically observed that all governments try to stay in power and postpone any inevitable collapse.
          We have not had a collapse of the primary trading currency since the fall of Rome, which took several hundred years of decline….slowly and then all at once.
          The decline of various colonial empires is similar, but not exactly parallel.
          Again these took a long time, many decades, if not centuries.
          The British Empire ended essentially in about the first quarter of the 20th century, but the pound is still slowly dropping; it never really collapsed.

          • On August 1, 2019 at 10:26 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I do not disagree with you concerning……all governments try to stay in power and postpone any inevitable collapse.
            The great thing about leaning history,….is you can see things a little more clearly…

          • On August 1, 2019 at 10:51 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Tack on another $2.7 Trillion……..Senate passes spending bill….

          • On August 1, 2019 at 11:58 am,
            cfs says:

            Again the lesson from history (and I do not predict a repeat….always a rhyming.)
            is that there were some sudden drops in the pound, caused by banking crises.

            e.g. when Britain dropped out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after spending 40-50% of its reserves in 1992, the pound dropped suddenly about 15% over the next few days.

            There was an earlier crisis back in the sixties when the pound dropped about 20% over a few weeks.

            So my conclusion is that one can expect sudden drops of 15-25% with a banking crisis.

            I don’t know if that conclusion is coirrect, but it’s my working hypothesis.

  35. On August 1, 2019 at 7:51 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Can anyone explain to me the justifiable reason behind palladiums proverbial cliff fall? Nearly $100 in a single day is massive in anyones language!

  36. On August 1, 2019 at 8:50 am,
    Matthew says:

    The Gold Miners Index continues to follow the arrows that I drew over a month ago (BEFORE it broke above that big fork). The red line was also drawn at that time and represented my target/resistance:

  37. On August 1, 2019 at 8:55 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  38. On August 1, 2019 at 10:56 am,
    b says:

    $25-$30 dip in gold, some of my shares tanked, and gold goes right back up along with my shares.
    Looks like it was a buy the dip.
    No way I could have made money by selling before then buying back in, better simply to hold.

    Gold looks good, only way I see it tanking now is the market crashes and people sell simply to raise cash, but after that, gold should go thru the roof.

    oopps, to the moon. lol

    • On August 1, 2019 at 11:33 am,
      Matthew says:

      Exactly. Holding through a bull market is the best approach for the vast majority of investors.
      On July 31, 2019 at 7:33 pm,
      Matthew says:
      Despite today’s plunge, gold is still above $1400.10, the price it closed at on July 5th when its MACD gave its sell signal. So gold has had 3.5 weeks of correcting… UPWARD.
      The significance of using up weeks of correction time by going higher can’t be overstated.