Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 3 Sep, 2019

More Signs That The Global Slowdown Is Finally Hitting The US

Chris Temple, Founder of The National Investor joins me to share his thoughts on the ISM data out this morning and why he does not think we are going to see any actual improvement on the trade front. This all ties into a more pessimistic outlook for US markets and further pushes the Fed into a no win situation.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more of his insights.

View related posts on: , , ,

Comments:
  1. On September 3, 2019 at 10:05 am,
    b says:

    off topic
    for cfs…..

    The investigation sheds quite a bit of light on reports that the US is supporting terrorists in the Middle East. Dilyana Gaytandzhieva initially investigated Silk Way Airlines thoroughly, and how it was used to deliver and keep delivering weapons to ISIS and other militant groups. Her continuous investigations are leading to quite a few revelations, tying Eastern European weapon producers, US-government agencies and Middle East terrorist groups.

    https://southfront.org/us-purchased-weapons-in-hands-of-isis-in-yemen-investigation/

    • On September 3, 2019 at 10:39 am,
      cfs says:

      I, CFS, place southfront in the same category as RT. …..can be used for verification if story already sourced elsewhere.

      Otherwise it is simply pro-Russian propaganda.

      • On September 3, 2019 at 11:35 am,
        b says:

        SOUTHFRONT GETS AWARD FOR UNCOMPROMISED INTEGRITY IN JOURNALISM

        In August 2019, SouthFront was honored and profoundly moved to be considered worthy of the Serena Shim Award for Uncompromised Integrity in Journalism. We are proud to be among other respected and dedicated media organizations, journalists and investigators like Julian Assange, Vanessa Beeley, Dilyana Gaytandzhieva and others.

        https://southfront.org/southfront-gets-award-for-uncompromised-integrity-in-journalism/

        • On September 3, 2019 at 12:01 pm,
          Matthew says:

          CFS loves propaganda as long as it matches his prior programming.

          • On September 3, 2019 at 12:26 pm,
            b says:

            Yup, that award sure makes it look like cfs may not actually have things figured.

            I have shown more proof than I can recall that the U.S. supports isis,
            cfs simply denies denies denies.

            Maybe if cnn reported it cfs could believe it.

          • On September 3, 2019 at 12:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            He is 100% NPC and that’s being way too kind.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-player_character

          • On September 3, 2019 at 1:32 pm,
            cfs says:

            “It all started with her receiving documents from an anonymous source ”

            May I suggest it was the TRAITOR HILLARY that authorized it with Obama’s authorization?

            Then may I ask what it has to do with Trump? I trust he will soon get around to indicting the crooks !

        • On September 3, 2019 at 1:37 pm,
          cfs says:

          Southfront, integrity so uncompromised that it is one of the very few sources banned by wikipedia as unreliable.

          • On September 3, 2019 at 1:45 pm,
            cfs says:

            OPSerenaShimAward Retweeted
            Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
            @AOC
            Aug 29
            More Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Retweeted MRCTV.org
            I love everything about this GOP attack ad.

            CFS: Need I say more ? LOL

          • On September 3, 2019 at 2:24 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t know anything about Southfront but I do know that being banned by Wikipedia could prove the opposite of what you think. Wikipedia itself has no integrity when it comes to politically sensitive subjects (and I think it’s safe to assume that you’ve never detected that).

          • On September 3, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
            cfs says:

            I guess I don’t understand why many in this forum assume US Democrat Foreign policy is the same as US Republican foreign policy…..you would not assume the same economic policies.
            Foreign policies can be similar or slightly different or substantially different.
            Obama was Islamic leaning or actually secretly Islamic, Trump is clearly not.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo0FoIv-H24

  2. On September 3, 2019 at 10:20 am,
    b says:

    I agree that silver is more speculative than gold.
    Maybe thats kinda obvious.
    Good interview.

  3. On September 3, 2019 at 11:32 am,
    cfs says:

    The interest rates have little to do with the economy anymore. The US economy is Japanized and we will continue to lower interest rates.
    INTEREST RATES WILL BE LOWERED IN ORDER TO MAKE THE EXCESSIVE DEBT AFFORDABLE.
    This will continue until some fiat currencies collapse.
    It is still possible, but less probable, that the dollar in its current form can survive.
    (It would require Trump cutting Government in a second term.)

  4. On September 3, 2019 at 11:48 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Ditto on ………Good interview…………jmo

  5. On September 3, 2019 at 11:59 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver, SIL and SILJ have made new highs today while gold, GDX and GDXJ have not. Based on the clearing of the 200 week MA, silver is about 8 months behind gold while the silver ETFs are roughly 3 months behind the gold ETFs.
    These technical “confirmations” will continue and I expect silver to become monthly RSI 14 overbought before there’s a top of importance. Gold is already overbought by that measure.

    • On September 3, 2019 at 4:11 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold closed at $1556.30 up 1.8% today and $Silver at $19.36 up 5.6% today. Wow!

      It has been nice to see Silver & the miners playing catch-up and outperforming Gold the last few week, as it just further confirms the bull market breakout.

      Think about what a difference this will make in margins for producers (or economics for developers) at $1556.30 Gold versus when it was at $1250 a few months back. Consider what a radical change producing and selling Silver at $19.36 is compared to the $14-$15 range from Q2.

      The 3rd quarter numbers should show marked improvement, and the developers better remake their slide decks for where the pricing is today. That is what they’ve been preaching at lower levels, to use present metals prices, where here they are….

      Ever Upward!

      • On September 3, 2019 at 4:15 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Also despite the folks that thought the Gold:Silver ratio was irrelevant now, we are seeing that is simply not the case, and that “this time isn’t different”.

        I agree that it is not easy to use the Gold:Silver ratio for a short-term timing tool, but it was clear that a GSR in the high 90’s pushing 100 was not sustainable. When the GSR pulls back and declines, giving Silver the advantage in outperformance, then it is good for the whole PM sector, because it confirms the strength in the bull is underway.

        It is the same thing when the stocks outperform the metals as a confirming data point.

        • On September 3, 2019 at 4:17 pm,
          Matthew says:
          • On September 3, 2019 at 4:27 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +35

        • On September 3, 2019 at 4:27 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (BHS) Bayhorse Silver had an encouraging move today up 25% on the day.

          (EXK) Endeavour Silver got in the groove up 15.53% on the day and another 4.92% in afterhours trading.

          (DEF) Defiance up 17% on the day.

          Lots of Silver explorers were up double digits today, and the producers were up 3% – 20% on the day. Looking good!

      • On September 3, 2019 at 4:16 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Silver is just getting warmed-up and gold is less than $9 away from last week’s high:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75159134747

        • On September 3, 2019 at 4:30 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, but what about all the people wondering if the Precious Metals are still in the bear market that started in 2011? (lol)

      • On September 3, 2019 at 5:15 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Agreed Excelsior, silvers catchup has been impressive. It has just hit a fresh 6 year high in Aus dollars. Now the GSR looks as though it wants to break below 80. If this can continue in the near future that would be good as I continue to believe gold just needs to relax for a little while. So if gold can consolidate between $1520-$1600 whilst silver perhaps makes a run towards $21 (2016 high) over the next month or so, it continues a fundamentally solid structure in golds (subsequently silver too) fresh bull-market.

        Your point of positive margin difference for producers in the wake of PMs price climb is a good one too. Hopefully this will bring much sought after relief after prolonged depressed prices. Just on this matter, if prices continue to rise and production therefore improves, will fresh exploration, mining and increased supply have a significant impact on gold and silver prices? I only mention gold and silver as I believe their safe haven status is more of a primary driver in prices han other PMs.

        • On September 3, 2019 at 6:26 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Great thoughts Ozibatla and that scenario of Gold consolidating in $1520-$1600 would be fantastic, while Silver continues to play catchup. (it is at $19.55 in afterhours trading at the time of this writing, while Gold is at $1554.60 = 79.52 G.S.R.)

          One of the contributors over at ceo.ca had this point to make when comparing today with the 2016 surge:

          @NextPhase – “The gold/silver ratio fell below 80 today for the first time since 2018, while the ratio low in 2016 was 64.”

          http://cdn.ceo.ca/1emu03s-GS%20Ratio.png

          _______________________________________________________

          As for the margins in the Producers and the economics on the Developers, they really need to start factoring in much higher prices than where many people still are mentally at $1200-$1300 Gold or $14-$16 Silver. That ship has now sailed….

          For some time pundits covering the $Gold and $Silver sector stated that when evaluating the miners, and in particular #Developers or advanced #Explorers, that it was critical to use the present-day metals prices, and not where investors thought the metals prices may be going next.

          Well… are those same folks going to adjust the figures up to where the metals prices are now? If they don’t and bang on about metals pulling back then they are hypocrites of their own philosophy.

          Bottom line, projects that looked good at $1200-$1300 Gold should be going through rip your face off rallies at $1550. And projects that people didn’t want to touch that needed $1400 Gold, are also now in the money, and most investors have not made the transition to just how much more economic their projects are or how much quicker they can pay them back.

          As for producers, the 3rd quarter figures will be revealing, but we’ll need to wait until the fall for those, but there has been a lot of change from July into August and now into September, so it will need to be the average price of Gold or Silver across the quarter. At that point a number of companies will have finally made profits, and THAT should finally get the attention of the generalist investors and bring them into the PM space.

          As for the silver miners, some will banking it up at $17-$19, but the smaller higher cost miners will have finally hit breakeven. It may take them a little while longer to really break out because they mostly need north of $20 to start to shine.

          However at $19.50 Silver, they’re almost there…..

          • On September 3, 2019 at 6:34 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Now I can stop bad mouthing silver…….. 🙂

          • On September 3, 2019 at 6:44 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Good stuff Ex! Interesting times.

  6. On September 3, 2019 at 12:01 pm,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Egon von Greyerz says silver could go to $667 with gold@10K. I would be happy with silver@$500 unless civil war has started. EXK up 15% today!

    • On September 3, 2019 at 4:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Bonzo Barzini – EXK is also up another 5% in afterhours trading beyond the 15% it was up during normal trading hours.

      Fun times!

  7. On September 3, 2019 at 1:26 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold will be explosive, unlike anything we’ve seen says Canada’s billionaire
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnTHFGS58iE

    • On September 3, 2019 at 2:37 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Giustra didn’t surprise me, what he had to say some of us here have been crying about for many years. It’s all about the debt, it’s too bad he didn’t have anything original to say. The only small tidbit I gleaned from him is he pretty much avoids juniors. I think Frank is getting too old for the excitement. DT

      • On September 3, 2019 at 2:58 pm,
        Matthew says:

        He avoids the seniors and and usually the explorers but likes other juniors. Sprott also avoids the seniors and so do I.

        • On September 3, 2019 at 4:37 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’ll take on a few Silver Seniors like First Majestic or Coeur, but for Gold, I steer clear of them when there are many higher torque Mid-tier producers with great leverage to metals prices, but the Smaller Producers, Developers, and Explorers are where the largest outperformance will be found.

      • On September 3, 2019 at 3:09 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ditto Dick……..Spot on what he had to say some of us here have been crying about for many years. It’s all about the debt,
        I will keep my comments to myself on Frank G……..

  8. On September 3, 2019 at 5:56 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    And the GSR now indeed below 80 with silver adding on another 17 cents in the last hour whilst golds barely moved.

  9. On September 3, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    When gold began its breakout back in the middle of June the GSR ratio was just above 90. At the end of golds last consolidation period which ended at the beginning of August when the price was around $1400 the GSR ratio had declined to 86. A week later however when gold powered its way to $1500 the ratio had crept back up to 88.5 indicating a move back above 90 was on the cards. This left many (myself included) bemoaning silvers muted action and feeling a tad frustrated. This ratio is now below 80 on the back of silvers latest price pop and hasnt been in this region since the beginning of August last year.

    All this validates silvers catchup action we have been waiting for. As the historical favourable period approaches for PMs, it will be interesting to see how the next month or 2 plays out. Particularly amongst tha backdrop of many troubled issues ie: currency wars, trade wars, brexit debate, inflated stock markets, low interest rates etc etc.

    • On September 3, 2019 at 6:32 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Looks like a good sign…….indeed……..

  10. On September 4, 2019 at 12:18 am,
    Marty says:

    The Silence is deafening with no mention over the 30% gain today in GREAT BEAR. SEMINAR presentation UPDATE today at 11 EST CONCERNING the Dixie Drill Program.

    • On September 4, 2019 at 5:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Marty – I saw the chatter about the 30% gain in GBR all day yesterday on ceo.ca, and was fatigued from reviewing it, but that was absolutel an epic move on great drill results (again). It would be nice to get update from Cory since they are show sponsors here.

      • On September 4, 2019 at 5:31 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Having said that, with a Market Cap of $360 Million as an advanced explorer, Great Bear is getting rather lofty at present.

        Pure Gold (PGM) their neighbor, has a more advanced development project that just released their Feasibility Study, and is only valued at $220 Million in comparison.

        Both GBR and PGM are prime takeover candidates.

      • On September 4, 2019 at 5:51 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        DITTO ON THE UPDATE >>>>>>>>>>>EX>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    • On September 4, 2019 at 5:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Rob McEwen is still very involved with Great Bear Resources, but they did just have MUX McEwen Mining sell some of their strategic holdings in GBR on the surge higher last week. (which was really the prudent thing to do, since nobody knew what the step on drilling would hit). However, I bet they’re secretly a bit miffed that they didn’t wait until this week. 🙂

      • On September 4, 2019 at 5:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (MUX) McEwen Mining: Stock Exploration Update

        by @nasdaq on 4 Sep 2019

        “Assay results have been received for 27 holes drilled along a 3 km (1.9 mile) trend that hosts the historical Stock Mine and Stock East deposit.”

        “A high-grade drill intersection of 18.0 g/t Au over 9.1 m, including 120 g/t Au over 1.3 m was encountered 250 m below the deepest intersection from exploration in 2018, and 650 m below the deepest workings in the Stock Mine, reinforcing our belief that the gold system remains strong and open with potential to extend mineralization below the mine workings.”

        https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/mcewen-mining-stock-exploration-update

      • On September 4, 2019 at 6:03 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Thanks for the added comments and the players………

        • On September 4, 2019 at 7:19 am,
          Excelsior says:

          OOTB – Glad to share connect…..the….dots….. 🙂

  11. On September 4, 2019 at 5:23 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Someone posted this article over at ceo.ca from mid 2018 that was mostly taking a jab at a prominent Billionaire that took a 50% stake in Gold & Gold stocks last year.
    ____________________________________________
    A Billionaire Makes a Classic Investing Error
    Barry Ritholtz
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-a-billionaire-makes-a-classic-investing-error/
    ______________________________________________

    Taking on too concentrated of an investment #PositionSizing is extremely risky, and personally wouldn’t go all in on 1 asset, preferring some diversification in my portfolio to reduce down that kind of extreme risk exposure, but that doesn’t mean it was an error.
    Having said that, regarding Naguib Sawiris, it is interesting that the tone of that article was almost to shake their head at what he had done.: “This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into #Gold,” in mid 2018. “The billionaire in question, who is buying gold directly and investing in gold miners, is No. 338 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and comes from the wealthiest family in Egypt.”
    Looks like his decision to buy a large position of Gold and Gold stocks in mid-2018 has been well-served, despite the author/pundit calling it an “error,” favoring the US stock markets instead. Classic herd-think editor getting taken to school.
    We’ve seen a number of other Billionaires like #Sprott, Dalios, Gundlack, Mobius, Tudor-Jones that also announced investing big into #PreciousMetals over the last year. (ding, ding, ding)
    They were all correct, surrounded by some of the best minds in the business, and being able to analyze the turbulent waters in the marketplace and spot the overarching trend is likely why they’re Billionaires.

    • On September 4, 2019 at 5:55 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Great last comment…………”and being able to analyze the turbulent waters in the marketplace and spot the overarching trend is likely why they’re Billionaires.”

      • On September 4, 2019 at 7:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks OOTB. As they say, “Success leaves clues.”

    • On September 4, 2019 at 6:13 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      And Bonzo also has half his portfolio in gold and silver and mining shares and sleeps soundly.

      • On September 4, 2019 at 7:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        We may have to change your handle to Bonzo Billionaire. 😉

        • On September 4, 2019 at 6:20 pm,
          Matthew says:

          More like Bonzo Bazillionaire! 💰💰💰

  12. On September 4, 2019 at 8:57 am,
    Matthew says:

    The silver stocks have been correcting versus silver for the last month so don’t be surprised if they catch a bid when silver stalls or even pulls back. Yes, that would be unusual but the market is forward-looking and the big-picture writing is on the wall. So aggressive positioning for the longer term is likely on any silver weakness.
    SILJ:SLV…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01080721677&a=685947358

  13. On September 4, 2019 at 9:13 am,
    Matthew says:

    You don’t have to be a fan of silver to see the opportunity in the silver stocks…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58092721983&a=628632566

    • On September 4, 2019 at 1:17 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Nice chart……….thanks….

      • On September 4, 2019 at 5:29 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Agreed – That was a great GDX vs SILJ chart Matthew.

      • On September 4, 2019 at 6:21 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Thanks guys. This market sure is giving the top-callers some problems.