Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Thu 5 Sep, 2019

Is this the start of a short term pullback in precious metals

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me to address the pullback in precious metals today. It’s very hard to say if this is the start of the overdue correction most technicians are waiting for but there are some key levels to watch as we close the week tomorrow.Also pay close attention to the bounce in yields as the bond market will pay a big roll in the length of the metals pullback.

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Comments:
  1. On September 5, 2019 at 4:34 pm,
    CFS says:

    Volatility provides opportunity for manipulation.
    The precious bull market is intact.

  2. On September 5, 2019 at 4:38 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver, Gold and Platinum Are Due a Break

    (9/5/19) – Streetwise Reports

    Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold explains what one indicator is showing for the precious metals.

    “The DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) on gold hit 97 four weeks ago and while it has struggled to keep up with its fellow climbers with their burst of speed, both silver and platinum are starting to look shaky.”

    “On September 4th the DSI for silver hit 95 for the 2nd day in a row while platinum vaulted to 94.”

    “Those are nosebleed readings.”

    “With $17 trillion in sovereign debt around the world showing negative interest rates the old saw of “gold doesn’t have a return” has changed to “gold doesn’t lose money for holding it.” Indeed Central Banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for the last ten years.”

    “I suppose I will have to change my tune as clearly the Central Banks have been manipulating gold and I never even noticed. I wonder why no one warned us they were forcing gold higher. Good for them, guys, keep it up.”

    “Gold, silver and platinum will rest for a while but we haven’t seen a top. The upcoming bubble in real money is going to surprise everyone.”

    https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/09/05/silver-gold-and-platinum-are-due-a-break.html?utm_source=delivra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TRR9-5-19&utm_id=37982164&dlv-ga-memberid=131351122

  3. On September 5, 2019 at 4:54 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Down $40, Time To Panic?

    by @Goldfinger on 5 Sep 2019

    “The short answer is NO.”

    “If you’re a long term bull you’re not going to be shaken out during the first day of a sell-off after a ~$400 rally in gold, however, it is also probably too early to be aggressive on the buy side. That is why “doing nothing” is oftentimes the best option. After a drop like today it’s usually prudent to wait until the afternoon of the 2nd day, or even the 3rd day of a decline before beginning to accumulate and/or add to long positions. ”

    “In the short term the charts need some time begin to bottom and form bases. However, in the bigger picture (weekly and monthly charts) today is little more than a blip within the context of a powerful paradigm shift that stands to favor gold and silver for years to come:”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-down-40-time-to-panic

    • On September 5, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      If a $40 fall scares you,……..you have no business in this space…..

      • On September 6, 2019 at 1:23 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold Price Suffers Biggest Fall In Six Years

        Frik Els | September 5, 2019

        “The gold price plunged in early morning trade on Thursday, in one of the worst trading sessions in dollar terms in gold market history.”

        “The gold price dropped to $1,514.30 an ounce in mid-morning – down 3% or $46.10 an ounce from the Thursday’s settlement of $1,560.40 on the Comex market in New York.”

        “The trades that crushed December-delivery gold in morning trade came in three short bursts of 1moz-plus sell orders, forcing bulls back on the defensive after a nearly 10% rally since the beginning of August.”

        https://www.mining.com/chart-gold-price-suffers-biggest-fall-in-6-years/

      • On September 6, 2019 at 5:36 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Spanky ……spooked the market……… gold was doing fine until he showed up…. 🙂 🙂

        • On September 6, 2019 at 8:10 am,
          Excelsior says:

          He said he may not see $18 Silver in his lifetime, but didn’t wake up when it happened.

          I hope he was just taking a nap and not a dirt nap, because the 2nd leg of the bull market that started after Gold bottomed and the first Fed rate hike in Dec 0f 2015, kicked off the next leg of the PM bull over the last few months and it has been pretty exciting.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 8:58 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            You know that, I know that, ……..problem there are a lot that do not know that…. 🙂

  4. On September 5, 2019 at 4:58 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The results have been posted a few times on sector-wide rallies in the Silver stocks, so it’s only fair on a day like this with a sector-wide sell off, that we look at the “Red on the screen” stats:

    Symbol – $Silver #Producer Name – Daily Chg %

    $SBR Silver Bear Resources Plc -12.82%
    $FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. -10.61%
    $IPT IMPACT Silver Corp. -10.42%
    $AG First Majestic Silver Corp. -9.19%
    $EXN Excellon Resources Inc. -9.09%
    $EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. -8.25%
    $USAS Americas Silver Corporation -7.43%
    $CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. -7.12%
    $HL Hecla Mining Company -6.70%
    $SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. -6.55%
    $GPL Great Panther Mining Limited -6.29%
    $HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc -5.81%
    $FRES.L Fresnillo Plc -5.76%
    $SSRM SSR Mining Inc. -5.40%
    $GGD GoGold Resources Inc. -5.13%
    $ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. -4.79%
    $PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. -4.45%
    $MYA Maya Gold and Silver Inc. -4.39%
    $SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. -2.86%

    • On September 5, 2019 at 5:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I nibbled at IPT today and considered adding to a few others, but sat on my hands in case we see a continuation tomorrow and into next week to deploy more dry powder.

      In a bull run, the pullbacks are typically more shallow than folks waiting on the sidelines would prefer, so if these stocks pull back 20%+ on a corrective move, then they’re a buy.

      • On September 5, 2019 at 6:19 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I added to IPT and others today.A good deal is a good deal and it is not yet certain that this is the short term pullback that everyone’s been anticipating (I am confident that it is not a significant high; one that lasts for months).
        The low for GDX today happened at its 5 week uptrend support and one cent above Kaufman’s moving average:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p38629573777&a=686276584

      • On September 5, 2019 at 6:20 pm,
        Matthew says:
      • On September 5, 2019 at 11:05 pm,
        Rebenga says:

        What do you make of the gap at 24-ish?
        Is that something to sorry about?
        They say all gaps must be filled, and if that happens it would be a significant pullback.

        • On September 5, 2019 at 11:26 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I was much more worried about it when price wasn’t so far above it. Now it doesn’t look like much of a risk.
          Most gaps get filled, not quite all, and it probably helps that it is a daily chart gap at a time when the weekly, monthly and quarterly charts look so good.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 12:12 am,
            Rebenga says:

            It sure looks like we are going to test 1460 and 17,7.
            At that Point it would be “Load up the truck”-time

          • On September 6, 2019 at 2:25 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Rebenga – Yes, if Gold tests the mid $1400’s and Silver the mid $17’s then I’ll be deploying my remaining dry powder allocated to the PM sector for sure.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 7:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            A line drawn across the monthly closing prices of 8/2011 and 9/2012 (the two highest monthly closes), brings us support at roughly 1463 for this month.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 7:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            The following chart does not yet show it but today’s low happened at a fork support…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45238769844&a=652515795

          • On September 6, 2019 at 1:13 pm,
            Rebenga says:

            I think the Gamerulers may want to get out of their short positions and now manufacture a big drop to do so. All the numbers we´ve been hit by so far are so bad (with all the other tensions) that they understand that prices are heading far higher.

            Matthew as I wrote before I really think that gap will be filled. And that means mid 1400 and further more short term pain. However this time we have the oportunity to sell the slackers and instead move in to quality names.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 1:19 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t think your 1460 target is low enough to push GDX down to that gap but it’s obviously possible.

          • On September 6, 2019 at 1:46 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That gap was caused by gold leaping $30+ from the 1360s to the 1390s so it would seem quite a bearish development if GDX fills the gap on gold going to 1460.

    • On September 6, 2019 at 2:52 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Sector May Sink in the Short Term

      By Jeff Clark – September 5, 2019

      “Gold and gold stocks fell hard today.”

      “Gold prices dropped 2%. And gold stocks – measured by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) – fell even further, down 5%.”

      “Now, if you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know we believe we’re in the early innings of the next great bull market in gold. All signs still point to this being the “motherlode of all gold rallies.”

      https://www.caseyresearch.com/daily-dispatch/gold-sector-may-sink-in-the-short-term/

  5. On September 5, 2019 at 5:34 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    What goes up must come down. Also nothing goes straight up. Seems a good time for the PMs to correct. Short to mid term, good gains have been made, time to take some money off the table. A correction here is nothing to worry about in my eyes.

  6. On September 5, 2019 at 7:24 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GDX is at a very important level and needs to break higher to confirm gold’s breakout.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p90471295559&a=484019228

  7. On September 5, 2019 at 7:32 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  8. On September 6, 2019 at 1:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Interesting chart from a contributor over at ceo.ca:

    @designer – “Test area for gold vs dollar:”

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1en44mm-Gold%20vs%20dollar%20ratio.jpg

    • On September 6, 2019 at 1:41 am,
      Excelsior says:

      ^^ Actually I just realized that chart is from Kimble Charting Solutions, to give credit where credit is due.

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