Weekend Show – Sat 14 Sep, 2019

Hour 1 – Recapping The Beaver Creek Conference and Change In Investing Money Flows

It was a busy week for me at the Beaver Creek conference. I had over 30 meetings which impeded me from recording daily editorials. I’ll be back to it next week with my full slate of guests. 

I managed to record this weekend show’s full hour before traveling home on Friday morning. Most of the show this week is focused on the previous metals and resource stocks. I hope you all enjoy and have a great weekend!

Keep on touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 – Chris Temple, Founder of the National Investor, kicks off the show by recapping the week. We discuss trade “developments” and the new ECB QE program. We also look ahead to the Fed next week as well as the shift in markets. 
  • Segment 2 and 3 – David Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky, and I recap the Beaver Creek investment conference we attended this week. We look at the expectations for gold and the stocks that caught out eye… Please note we recorded this in Friday morning. The comments Dave made regarding silver and the levels he was watching were all made before the breakdown happened. It makes the numbers all the more important.
  • Segment 4 – Jayant Bhandari wraps up the show by sharing his trading strategy and a couple stocks he likes. 

Chris Temple
David Erfle
Jayant Bhandari
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Comments:
  1. On September 14, 2019 at 8:32 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Thanks Cory, Big Al, and all the KE Report contributors for another great weekend show.

    I’m excited to dig in to all the company news that was released this week leading up to the Beaver Creek conference, and all the interviews that so many different pundits conducted at the show.

    For the last few years, some of the most meaningful discussions, tough questions, and company updates came out of the energy put into this show by companies, institutional investors, newsletter writers, resource publications, blog forums, and retail investors.

    Fun times!

  2. On September 14, 2019 at 8:39 am,
    Excelsior says:

    As far as Gold, it started it’s new bull market after the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40 and has gone up about $500 from there. Honestly, even when it was up $200-$300 dollars folks were doubting the new Gold bull, but how people can still be doubting the new bull on a move from $1045 to $1566 ($521 move) is mind-blowing.

    Personally, I don’t believe this recent move up into late August/early September was the end of Gold’s move higher; not by a longshot. that isn’t how bull markets end, and while it was strong move higher, it was simply the next impulse leg to new highs.

    If any investors pulls up the longer term chart, they can see how much more room Gold still has to run to finish the large saucer from 2012/2013 to present.

    >>> 5 year Gold #chart for reference: http://schrts.co/PbXRiFRC

    This move is only in the early stages of a 3rd Wave. The first wave was leaving 2015 and the surge into 2016 that continued up until August, then the second wave was the long sideways to down consolidation move, and then the next wave higher started in Dec 2018 tax loss (or some are preferring to start counting at the move out of May, but the move off the intermediate low in Gold was actually Dec 2018).

    Where this 3rd leg tops out is still to be determined, but I still feel a move into the $1600’s or low $1700’s is not out of the question. The PMs needed to correct over time and price for a while, and that is what we are seeing play out here over the last 2 weeks. It is healthy, was expected, and was overdue.

    I’ll be waiting to see if there is much downside left this next week, and deploying my remaining dry powder on dips that we see from here through year end. It is still possible Gold climbs one more time in 2019, and I have little doubt 2020 will be a bullish year overall in the PMs.

    • On September 14, 2019 at 10:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Why Russian and Chinese central banks will keep buying Gold

      MarketWatch – Sept 13, 2019 – Myra P. Saefong

      “Emerging markets have beefed up gold holdings, undeterred by prices near their highest levels in more than six years, as countries such as Russia and China diversify their foreign-exchange reserves—a trend that is likely to continue.”

      “Central bank buying is, of course, important to the supply/demand dynamic for the metal, but is much more important in terms of sentiment toward the metal,” says Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. When central banks are “buying as heavily as they are, it provides cover and a rationale for other central banks to do the same.”

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-russian-and-chinese-central-banks-will-keep-buying-gold-2019-09-13

      • On September 14, 2019 at 10:28 am,
        Excelsior says:

        A Volatile Week Ahead for Precious Metals – Weekly Wrap-Up (September 13, 2019)

        September 13, 2019

        It’s Friday the 13th. Will today be unlucky for gold and silver? Eric Sprott returns to the Wrap-Up to preview the volatile week ahead and break down all the gold and silver news you need, including:

        • What to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting

        • How the “economic funk” is leading to a paradigm shift

        • Plus: a deep dive into your questions about the miners

        https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/a-volatile-week-ahead-for-precious-metals-weekly-wrap-up-september-13-2019.html

        • On September 14, 2019 at 10:42 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Stock market unease highlights gold’s value in investment portfolios
          Author Robert ClarkStephanie Tsao

          “Gold’s recent price surge affirmed its status as a safe-haven asset in times of economic and market turmoil. Diversifying an equity portfolio with physical gold has led to superior returns, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of market data.”

          “Gold historically benefits from flight-to-quality inflows during periods of heightened risk. By providing positive returns and reducing portfolio losses, gold has been especially effective during times of systemic crisis when investors tend to withdraw from stocks,” Goldhub wrote.

          https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/O9FV5qhGVl_X-lN_qHRt8Q2

          • On September 14, 2019 at 12:50 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            ECB Launches QE-Infinity, Gold Surges

            by @Goldfinger on 12 Sep 2019

            “Once again we can see the trend line drawn from the May low but what really gave me confidence was the oversold MACD (at bottom) and the declining volume profile during gold’s recent correction, a sign that sellers were losing conviction as price came down to the psychological $1500 level.”

            https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/ecb-launches-qe-infinity-gold-surges

          • On September 14, 2019 at 1:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            When Will it be Safe to Jump Back into the Gold and Silver Pool?

            Streetwise Reports (9/12/19) – Bob Moriarty

            Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses what the Daily Sentiment Indicator is saying about the precious metals markets.

            “Once again the DSI (Daily Sentiment Indicator) made an accurate call on a major top in gold and silver. The DSI reached nosebleed territory for gold about four weeks ago suggesting the metals were nearing shoal waters. Silver and platinum got stupid a week ago and I suggested a correction would be timely.”

            https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/09/12/when-will-it-be-safe-to-jump-back-into-the-gold-and-silver-pool.html

          • On September 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Continuing on from Bob M’s article above:

            “When the DSI for gold and silver and platinum break under 10 you can put your life jacket back on and jump in. If the markets follow the traditional calendar, that will be about mid December.”

            “In a different vein, I want to thank the hundreds of people who wrote to me expressing their sorrow at the news of the death of my wife. We knew she was ill, she was tired and wanted out but still when it happened it was the biggest shock of my life. I miss her so.”

            “I’ve learned a lot and while it may seem callous of me to run the website with tears on my face, I need something to make it worth breathing. Now I realize that life is a teeter-totter. The opposite side of deep love is incredible pain. I loved Barbara deeply and I mourn her greatly. Thank you if you were one of those kind enough to share your thoughts.”

          • On September 14, 2019 at 2:09 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks for posting Ex……………

    • On September 14, 2019 at 4:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Closing Panel at Metals Investor Forum Sep 6-7, 2019 #VIDEO

      Gwen Preston, Eric Coffin, John Kaiser, Greg McCoach

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnGuQUTx4wE

  3. On September 14, 2019 at 10:23 am,
    larry says:

    /GC closed friday just over a TAS support bottom of 1489..20

    If this fails to hold price the next logical Swing high support is at 1467 area…
    If that fails to hold then Tom Demark breakout at 1412.10 area..

    Another perfect show..thank you !

  4. On September 14, 2019 at 11:39 am,
    Blue says:

    This might rattle the markets on monday

    Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site

  5. On September 14, 2019 at 12:51 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    There are a couple of comments on OIL….in the Political corner……….for those interested…

  6. On September 14, 2019 at 6:22 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I wonder how many here would be buyers if gold were to visit 1450 this week.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=8&dy=0&id=p52964382857&a=677152769

    • On September 14, 2019 at 8:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’d be a buyer there Matthew. Gary Wagner put up a chart last weekend that had $1493.30 as the -23% retracement (and Ira Epstein had a swingline with support at $1492), but then after that the next retracement level Gary noted was the -38% at $1451.30.

      So from the -38.2% standpoint $1450 seems like the next level of support down under $1493-$1492.

      • On September 14, 2019 at 8:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I believe Gary has the 38% retracement updated to $1453.70 on this weeks video, so same general area of support. I haven’t watched it yet, but just see the chart on the frozen video, but will post it here and see what his thoughts are.

        ______________________________________

        Risk-On Market Sentiment Pressures Gold and Silver

        Gary Wagner – September 13, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #VIDEO

        https://www.thegoldforecast.com/video/risk-market-sentiment-pressures-gold-and-silver

        • On September 15, 2019 at 10:00 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, on the left hand side Gary has the $1453.70 as his 38% retracement support level, so a 38.2% retracement would be down around $1450.

          http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ensre1-Gold%201453%20in%2038%20percent%20retracement.JPG

          • On September 15, 2019 at 10:05 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I also agree that Gold may pop for a few more days this week, before potentially pulling back to test that support. I’m more bullish going into this week than the past 2 weeks, but expect the rally to be sold into as it moves higher and that another pullback after that will do more of a sentiment wash.

            The most bullish thing would be for Gold to bounce at $1492-$1493, and rally, then pullback and consolidate over time to near $1450, and then that would be the base for a strong rally to a higher high.

            Then again, with all the insane geopolitical issues around the middle east and oil and the missile strike the last few days….. Gold could get a very nice safe-haven bid for the near-term.

          • On September 15, 2019 at 11:16 am,
            Matthew says:

            1450 does seem to be in the cards at some point but the monthly and quarterly charts point to the real possibility that the overbought weekly chart might be overridden. In other words, gold could continue higher without reaching that obvious and widely followed target. This would be typical bull market behavior and would set the stage for a more serious correction later. Price is still above both the monthly and quarterly Bollinger Bands.

            Quarterly gold:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=35&mn=11&dy=30&id=p71029912135&a=673508560

          • On September 15, 2019 at 10:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good point Matthew. It would be bullish if Gold price rallied off $1492-1493 and then took off higher and made a higher high than the recent peak at $1566.

            Even if Gold dips below $1492 (when Columbus sailed the ocean blue), if it consolidated above the $1450 level in the high $1400’s and then turned up higher, it would likewise be very bullish, and would catch many waiting for a pullback off guard and have them chasing pricing higher.

            I only trimmed my miners back a little bit in late August but still have about 80% exposure to the PMs that I want to, and will be adding back 5-10% this week expecting it to be more bullish. I started adding to a few Silver stocks during the carnage the end of last week, but plan on adding if Silver can bouce a bit this next week.

    • On September 15, 2019 at 3:21 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      I could care less at this point in time what level gold tests as support. A lot of stocks have had runs and are now moving down once again to test the levels they started from. I’m making my decisions based on their charts and pricing and not what silver and gold are doing. The months of October and November should be nothing months for the PMs and a great time to add again on dips. Some stocks had very nice runs and if investors were able to, in the money calls are returning nice rewards as these stocks have topped out and rolled over.

      • On September 15, 2019 at 5:50 pm,
        Matthew says:

        One should always consult individual charts but gold is the kingpin of the sector. When it turns up, the miners are likely to as well, at least on average. However, since the miners still have not joined gold in breaking way above their respective 2016 highs, I’m betting that any divergence that might develop will favor the miners. Markets are forward-looking so the miners will probably turn up before most expect.That’s what happens in a bull market.

        • On September 15, 2019 at 10:45 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I agree with you both that individual charts are the key to watch for each specific trade as they each have their own fingerprint and unique path, but also agree with the point Matthew made that Gold is the kingpin asset and Silver and the miners follow its general direction. If Gold is going down for a period of time, it is normal that Silver and the miners will eventually outperform to the downside, but if Gold heads higher, then eventually Silver and the miners will catch up and then outperform to the upside. Gold is the prime mover, and thus watching is price action is the barometer for the overall PM trend.

        • On September 16, 2019 at 6:50 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Gold is fine……….for those in the know……..

  7. On September 15, 2019 at 10:56 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX:SPY topped at an interesting resistance intersection:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=4&mn=1&dy=0&id=p78179235352&a=686556371

  8. On September 15, 2019 at 3:18 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    GOLD……Big Move up……..in first few minutes…..up…$17…….