Weekend Show – Sat 21 Sep, 2019

Hour 1 – Investing Strategies For Precious Metals, Oil, and Bonds

Full Show

I hope you all enjoy the extended segments on this weekend’s show. We spend a lot of time on the precious metals while also touching on the US markets and bonds.

  • Segment 1 – Rick Bensignor kicks off the show with his outlook on the US markets, bonds, gold and oil.
  • Segment 2 – Doc shares his outlook for gold and silver.
  • Segment 3 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group shares his insights on the buyers coming into the metals markets and some other internal data.
  • Segment 4 – Josef Schachter updates us on the oil market and his upcoming conference in Calgary on October 19th. Click here for more information on the conference which I will be attending.

Excursive Company Interviews This Week


Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
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Comments:
  1. On September 21, 2019 at 7:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Thanks Cory & Big Al and to all the KER Crew for all their contributions, insights, and another great Weekend Show!

  2. On September 21, 2019 at 7:47 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Price in Canadian Dollars

    $2,010.77 up +$23.86 (+1.20% gain)

    Sep 20, 2019 16:59 NY Time

    https://www.kitco.com/gold-price-today-canada/

    • On September 21, 2019 at 7:49 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “The chart of gold is incredibly bullish. When gold breaks out in every currency term that’s telling you this is a bonafide, legitimate and I would say secular bull market in bullion that’s going to go to new record highs in the next couple of years that will surprise a lot of people.”
      ~ David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff

      https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/MacroVoices-2019-09-19-David-Rosenberg.mp3 @ ~ 36:00 #reposqueeze @ ~ 45:00 #liquiditycrisis

      • On September 21, 2019 at 7:49 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Frank Giustra predicts explosive Gold market

        Haley Woodin – Business in Vancouver | September 20, 2019

        “The world is in uncharted waters right now. We’re living in a world with a global debt bubble, and any time you get debt bubbles of this magnitude that are global, that are fuelled by speculation, something’s going to happen.”

        https://www.mining.com/frank-giustra-predicts-explosive-gold-market/

        • On September 22, 2019 at 2:49 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Why Gold Could Reach Highs of $25,000 – Pierre Lassonde

          Kitco News – Sep 18, 2019 #VIDEO

          “Gold’s trajectory over the long-term is several thousand dollars higher, with an average target price of $12,500, and it only makes sense when you look at the historical growth of the metal, this according to Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada.”

          “If I use the compounded annual growth rate over 50 years, that’s got to give you a pretty good idea of where the gold price is going to go, and if you use that number, you get $12,500 in 30 years’ time,” Lassonde told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Denver Gold Forum.”

          Lassonde added that “applying the annual average growth rate from 1970, the long-term projection would be $25,000.”

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBsSg3R1d5o

  3. On September 21, 2019 at 7:57 am,
    Excelsior says:

    A Perp Walk, a Paradigm Shift, and the Week in Precious Metals – Weekly Wrap-Up

    September 20, 2019 – Craig Hemke & Eric Sprott

    “As we come to the end of a “crazy, crazy week” for gold and silver, what does that mean for you? The metals are both up a bit, but where do they go from here? In a value-packed edition of the Wrap-Up, Eric Sprott returns to break down all the gold and silver news you need, including:”

    • Indictments for “racketeering activity” at JP Morgan

    • The warning signs coming from the repo markets

    • What’s a good “batting average” for investments?

    >>> Good thoughts at the end of interview from Eric on $KL Kirkland Lake $HL Hecla, his stake in the Galena project where $USAS Americas Gold & Silver is the operator, $EXN Excellon Resources $DV Dolly Varden $KTN Kootenay $KG Klondike Gold and more…

    https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/a-perp-walk-a-paradigm-shift-and-the-week-in-precious-metals.html

    • On September 21, 2019 at 8:06 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Silver Faces This Big Misconception And Why Triple Digits Makes Sense – Keith Neumeyer

      Kitco News – Sep 17, 2019 #VIDEO Interview

      “Silver faces serious supply constraints, and although most people may not realize, it is a very rare metal that should be trading in the triple digits in price, this according to Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver.”

      “This $3 move in the silver price, it translates into about $98 to $99 million dollars in extra cash flow for $FR bottom line and that’s pretty substantial, and it just happens in the last few months.”

      “Shareholders and investors have not even seen the financial statements because there is this lag and it won’t be till later this year that people actually see the benefit to us as a result of this move.”

      “Now we are in a position that we can considerably think about a dividend.”
      ~ Keith Neumeyer, CEO of $AG

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAsen6b1aPo

      • On September 21, 2019 at 8:10 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Regarding the Silver miners, it should be pointed out that in bullish moves they normally outperform by a landslide the Gold Jrs. We saw that in 2009-2011 and in 2016’s epic surge, and on most of the smaller rallies in 2017 & 2018 & yes, this year in 2019.

        The margins are impacted so much more when Silver goes up a few bucks, where you don’t see as big of moves in Gold to warrant the gold Jrs going as high up.

        If investors are bullish on Gold miners, it always amazes me that they aren’t even more bullish on the Silver miners. If Silver is going to outperform gold once it starts playing catch-up, and if Silver miners always end up outpeforming Gold miners and there are so few of them, why in the heck wouldn’t most PM investors want to speculate in the Silver miners???

        What is amusing is that each time there is a rally in the Silver miners on bullish moves where they leave most of the gold miners in the dust there are so many pundits that are either confused or alarmed that Silver miners have some of the best returns.

        Does the entire PM sector have amnesia of what has happened every single time on meaningful rallies? Silver miners will win the race almost every time, they just take longer to get warmed up.

        • On September 21, 2019 at 8:17 am,
          Excelsior says:

          We are going to witness the same kind of scenario for many of the Producers when the markets are going to get surprised at what a difference these higher metals prices have made to their 3rd Quarter economics margins.

          People that think the Silver and Gold producers have already moved too far too fast, are simply not grasping how much more in the rerating higher these companies still have to go.

          Look at where some of these miners went in 2016 when Gold only went to $1377.

          Where do people think these things are going at $1450 to $1550 Gold?

          In 2016 the Silver miners were much higher at $21 Silver, but even at $18 Silver they are way better off than they were at $14-$15 and their Q3 production and operation reports should reflect that.

          Most of these Gold & Silver Q3 reports will be hitting in late October to mid-November and there are many opportunities to surprise to the upside.

          What is interesting is how many precious metals bulls are already pulling the plug and claiming the valuations in the miners are way to high. When generalist analysts start looking at the economics on the producers, their revenues, free cash flows, and PE ratios it is likely they’ll see a much different opportunity that those metals focused bulls still suffering from bear market PTSD.

          If metals prices stay up like they are now, then Q4 should also send the market a similar message. At that point, maybe it will sink in for analysts and investors that higher prices are here to stay and that the bull market is just beginning to stretch it’s legs.

          At that point the Developers will also get the rerating they deserve as Gold at $1200 or $1250 is not the environment we are in nor will be in.

          What is so ironic is that when Gold was at those prices the normal pied pipers analysts claimed “We must use the actual price of Gold — not where we think the price may be going.”

          However, they aren’t taking their own advice and are not currently valuing these development projects at $1450 to $1550 Gold, because they are concerned these prices may pull back further. We call that Hypocricy….

    • On September 21, 2019 at 8:22 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Eric Sprott made a good point in his weekly wrap above in that when Silver miners price levels are looked at in comparison to where they were in 2011 they are about 1/7 of that value overall.

      It is funny to hear so many commentaries from other “experts” the last 2 weeks that Silver miners were “overvalued.”

      Maybe when the Silver miners go up another 7-10 times we can have that discussion about their proper valuations, but most have expanded their projects and greatly reduced their operational costs and All-In Sustaining Costs since 2011, so their revenues and free cash flows should be much better this cycle, and one could make the case their valuations are going much higher longer term than where they ran in 2011.

      Ever Upward!

    • On September 21, 2019 at 8:40 am,
      CFS says:
      • On September 21, 2019 at 9:35 am,
        Excelsior says:

        That was the Sprott weekly wrap that I posted up above and that you linked this post to.

        But it is worth a second mention as folks should give it a listen.

  4. On September 21, 2019 at 8:08 am,
    Anders from Copenhagen says:

    Great show, Cory. Thanks for all your efforts 😎

  5. On September 21, 2019 at 9:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Solid Gains in Gold Move Current Pricing Above its Trading Range

    Gary Wagner – September 20, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

    https://thegoldforecast.com/video/solid-gains-gold-move-current-pricing-above-its-trading-range

  6. On September 21, 2019 at 9:54 am,
    Wolfster says:

    I think the First Quantum rumours certainly show that the base metals stocks are undervalued as we go through a possible recession…… might have to accumulate more Excelsior as they close in on production

  7. On September 21, 2019 at 11:05 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Peru’s Copper output to surge 27% by 2022 — minister

    Reuters | September 19, 2019

    “Peru expects its copper production to grow 27% and gold output to expand 12% in the next three years by 2022, the country’s energy and mines minister said on Thursday.”

    “Peru is the world’s No.2 copper producer and sixth-largest gold producer.”

    https://www.mining.com/web/perus-copper-output-to-surge-27-by-2022-minister/

  8. On September 21, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Argonaut Gold – Peter Dougherty, President & CEO #Corporate Presentation

    September 16, 2019 – Denver Gold Forum #VIDEO $Gold #Producer #Mexico #Ontario

    https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf19/ar.to/?lobby=true&day=1

    • On September 21, 2019 at 2:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold Inc. – John Dorward, President & CEO #CorporatePresentation

      September 16, 2019 – Denver Gold Forum #VIDEO $Gold #Producer #BurkinaFaso

      https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf19/rog.v/?lobby=true&day=1

  9. On September 22, 2019 at 2:36 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Exploration Trends: Drilling Up, Optimism Returns

    Vladimir Basov | September 20, 2019

    “Surge in gold prices and overall optimism reviving across the gold mining sector have finally encouraged miners, developers and explorers to pour more money into drilling campaigns.”

    https://www.mining.com/gold-exploration-trends-drilling-up-optimism-returns/

    • On September 22, 2019 at 2:37 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Visualizing the Life Cycle of a Mineral Discovery

      The Visual Capitalist – September 12, 2019 – Nicholas LePan

      https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/

      • On September 22, 2019 at 2:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        One thing that has always bothered me about the hidden assumptions made on the mining “Life Cycle” chart from Pierre Lassonde, is the end of that chart where is shows the growth line top out and curve down right after a company announcing going into production and then trending down into “depletion.”

        https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/wp-content/uploads/Mine_Cycle.jpg

        Even on that Visual Capitalist article posted above, it goes from “start-up” right to operational risks & “depletion,” making it seem like the value creation for that company is over. Nothing could be further from the truth.

        > Where is the extension of the line even higher showing further #exploration success by #producers with revenue streams to fund drilling at or near their properties (without the need for the Private Placement charades with full warrants of the Jr exploration racket?)

        > Where is the upside to the chart continuing higher if the company finds more satellite deposits to feed #Production of their mill?

        > What if the satelite deposits end up being more economical than the initial resource that got them into production?

        > What about the company using revenues to buy more bolt-on mines, or acquiring a nearby Jr explorer or developer to build even more longer term value?

        > What about rising commodity prices or reducing costs or improving recoveries to grow EPS?

        There are so many ways Producers can keep growing and building shareholder value, yet that chart implies “Game Over “at production. Really that is the point where the money raising machine has actually become a productive business that produces something tangible and of value instead of just promises.

        It just amazes me that some folks think they need to sell a company once things get into production because they opportunity is over (instead of just beginning). Sure, in the first 6 month – 1 year, most new producer have a few growing pains and hurtles to overcome, so I could see reducing one’s position during that phase, but it totally depends on the metals price environment, how accurate their Feasibility Study was, and how competent their team is. Look at how well Atlantic Gold or K92 Mining or Kirkland Lake did after getting into production as just a few more recent examples.

        Look at Hecla, they’re 125 years into this business, so did their chart end when going into production? (Granted they’ve had some challenges lately, but where will they be in 5-10 years, what companies will they acquire?) What exploration successes will they unearth around existing orebodies?

        I know some investors here at the KER follow (USA) Americas Gold and Silver….
        Didn’t their success expanding into San Rafael last year or purchasing Pershing’s Relief Canyon build even more shareholder value? They have so much more room for their chart to keep growing way beyond what they did as explorers or even the smaller incarnations back when they combined US Silver & Gold with Scorpio Mining.

        Producers have a number of options to use their incoming revenues to make moves tiny explorers could only dream of, and that seems lost on that chart and many folks that only speculate on #DrillPlays.

        Newbies should know that speculating on the Explorers and Developers is far less transparent and risky, but isn’t the only area to make great returns. In 2016’s run and so far in this year’s run, the mid-tier to smaller Producers have had the out-sized gains, and that lifecycle chart is misleading to new investors in this sense in that it makes it seem like after going into production the companies tank out, which is far from reality.

        • On September 22, 2019 at 3:47 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Here is a #chart with a dozen $Silver and $Gold producers returns Year-To-Date.

          There is still value to be had in the #Producers.

          GoGold Resources up 156% YTD
          Santacruz Silver up 133% YTD
          Silvercorp Metals up 104% YTD
          Americas Silver up 80% YTD
          First Majestic up 67% YTD
          Excellon up 55% YTD
          Alkane Resources up 288% YTD
          K92 Mining up 135% YTD
          DR Gold up 113% YTD
          Alacer up 108% YTD
          Alamos Gold up 77% YTD
          Perseus up 77% YTD

          http://cdn.ceo.ca/1eoeiae-A%20Dozen%20Silver%20and%20Gold%20Producers%20Returns%20Year%20To%20Date.JPG

        • On September 22, 2019 at 5:27 am,
          Wolfster says:

          I don’t know how I feel about the timing of when you posted this chart again……I just thought about looking it up this weekend on Thursday to see how pure gold and Excelsior fit with this……so I’m appreciative of it being so I don’t have to search for it but it’s creeping me out a bit how much you’re in mind. 😳

          • On September 22, 2019 at 9:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! What is funny Wolfster is that I literally almost posted the link to Pure Gold’s Denver Gold forum presentation underneath this last night, but had to run to some personal errands.

            PGM is now past their “orphaned phase” and have raised their construction capital, have their permits, and are heading into the 2nd big part of that chart, what Lobo Tigre dubbed their “Golden Runway” where most developers will run up another 100-200%+ going into Production and first pour. I’ve recently positioned back into Pure Gold (after having initially rode them up for part of the 2016 move higher).

            ___________________________________________________________________

            Pure Gold Mining Inc. – Darin Labrenz, President & CEO #CorporatePresenation

            September 16, 2019 – Denver Gold Forum #VIDEO $Gold #Developer #Ontario

            https://wsw.com/webcast/xpl19/pgm.v/?lobby=true&day=1

          • On September 22, 2019 at 9:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Intersects Bonanza Grade Gold Including 108.5 G/t Gold Over 1.0 Metre At Madsen Red Lake

            July 30, 2019

            http://puregoldmining.ca/news/pure-gold-intersects-bonanza-grade-gold-including-1085-gt-gold-over-10-metre-madsen-red-lake

          • On September 22, 2019 at 9:26 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Secures US$90 Million Construction Finance Package And Announces Construction Decision For Madsen Red Lake Mine

            August 07, 2019

            http://puregoldmining.ca/news/pure-gold-secures-us90-million-construction-finance-package-and-announces-construction-decision

          • On September 22, 2019 at 9:27 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Awards Engineering and Procurement Contracts, Builds Owners Team, and Commences Construction of its 100% Owned Madsen Gold Mine

            September 09, 2019

            http://puregoldmining.ca/news/pure-gold-awards-engineering-and-procurement-contracts-builds-owners-team-and-commences

          • On September 22, 2019 at 9:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Something else that is totally nuts is that Pure Gold has barely moved recently on Gold’s price increase (just like most developers haven’t had big moves) and the price of their underlying commodity mined just went up $300 per ounce.

            When will analysts and investors start rerating these developers projects at $1450-$1550 Gold?

            What is equally nuts is that (PGM) Pure Gold is now going into construction to build their Gold mine in the prolific Red Lake, and their market cap has barely moved higher, currently at $219 Million, but their neighbors, (GBR) Great Bear Resources are still drilling out their deposit, don’t have an official resource estimate, nor economic studies done, and they are boasting a $359 Million dollar market cap.

            Really (PGM) should be closer to that of (GBR) and GBR has gotten waaaaaay ahead of itself here in valuation, as happens on the fervor of exciting drilling narratives.

            I believe both companies are great takeover candidates, but if I was a big boy mid-teir producer, I’d be more inclined to pick up Pure Gold on sale, and wait for gravity to set in with Great Bear to grab it at a more reasonable valuation.

          • On September 22, 2019 at 10:18 am,
            Wolfster says:

            And you wonder why I’m paranoid????? Lol….yes I’m struggling to understand the valuation of pure gold and USA at this point……I don’t follow things closely enough to know and apparently you haven’t read my mind yet on this so I’ll have to ask…..is the gbr drilling working it’s way towards the pure property???

          • On September 22, 2019 at 10:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is a great #Map of the Gold Area Play in Red Lake that both (GBR) Great Bear and (PGM) Pure Gold mining are exploring and developing their projects, along with Gold Corp, Yamana, Premier Gold, and Abitibi Royalties/Golden Valley Mines.

            https://investingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/GBR_Red_Lake_Property_Map_03Sep17.jpg

          • On September 22, 2019 at 2:31 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Always slipping in abitibi…😀 I guess order of buying would be USA with production of gold mine coming in 4th then pure gold ..perhaps GBR has pulled back some after that and it’s buy…….and of course throw the profits into RZZ/GZZ

          • On September 22, 2019 at 3:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes of those mentioned, my expectation is for USA Americas Gold & Silver to really outperform most companies (like it already has been just the last few month). Yes the Relief Canyon project bringing Gold into the production profile, and the recent backstop of their Galena operations in Idaho by Eric Sprott (so they can upgrade equipment, optimize that mine, and lower the costs for their Silver production there is another huge win that the market completely over-looked in the last few weeks.

            Personally, I see PGM Pure Gold as very cheap relative to its ounces in the ground, considering its great jurisdiction & further exploration upside, and the fact it is still being valued like the market is still stuck at $1200 gold.

            I see both PGM and GBR Great Bear as takeover candidates, but GBR is really up at nosebleed levels, as an explorer with no NI 43-101 defined deposit and no economic studies but the lofty valuation of $359 Million (more than most of the smaller and some mid-tier producers). If it finds gravity and pulls back to the 100-200 Million market cap area, then it would be more attractive for an entry, but at this point it has run waaaay too much for me to chase it.

            As for RZZ/GZZ yes their prospectivity is very high, but I’d still favor GZZ with 44% of the stake in RZZ, but with recent interest in their deposit that Alexandria Minerals held that the new Osisko company O3 Mining is working on, as well as Bonterra and Sirios that have both been doing great work on the other properties GZZ holds an NSR on, not counting their JVs in VZZ and IZZ.

            USA USAS Americas Gold and Silver would be my pick of that litter at current prices though.

          • On September 23, 2019 at 6:24 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Seems others agree with you based on the premarket.

      • On September 22, 2019 at 9:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (SBB) (SGSVF) Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. – Bruce McLeod, CEO #CorporatePresentation

        September 16, 2019 – Denver Gold Forum #VIDEO $Gold #Developer #Nunavut

        https://wsw.com/webcast/xpl19/sbb.to/?lobby=true&day=1

        • On September 22, 2019 at 3:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          SBB is another great Developer that really deserves a re-rating higher when their project gets valued at $1500 Gold, and they are definitely a takeover target for a Mid-Tier producer that wants to take on the project.

  10. On September 22, 2019 at 9:09 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Danish and Swiss Banks to Charge Customers 0.75% Interest on Large Deposits

    by Mish – 17 hrs ago

    “Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its key deposit rate to minus 0.75%, a record low among developed economies. “It is a lot of money and we have to pass on part of this bill to our customers,” he said. “I don’t hope that we will have to go lower but I don’t dare to promise it.”.

    “Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank has said it has no plans to introduce negative interest rates on deposits. Switzerland’s UBS has said it will impose a negative rate of 0.75% on clients who deposit more than 2 million Swiss francs ($2 million). ($1 = 6.7559 Danish crowns)”

    https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/danish-and-swiss-banks-to-charge-customers-0-75-interest-on-large-deposits-Pu8bhyF1rkaOlu-VDBzlgw/

  11. On September 22, 2019 at 9:24 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On September 22, 2019 at 9:25 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +924 (I wondered why my post buffered, but we had just posted at the exact same time) so cheers!

      • On September 22, 2019 at 4:31 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It is interesting that GDX was able to close above that speed line, and thanks for the chart Matthew. I’d like to see GDX make a run at the 32 level.

  12. On September 22, 2019 at 10:13 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Chinese mining company Jiangxi is apparently targeting First Quantum for takeover, the shares of FM were up 20% on Friday.

  13. On September 22, 2019 at 4:36 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    https://usawatchdog.com/first-ever-triple-bubble-in-stocks-real-estate-bonds-nick-barisheff/

    100% In…………
    There is a first for Barisheff, too, in this financial environment. He says for the first time ever, he’s “100% invested in gold” as a percentage of his portfolio. He says the bottom “is in for gold,” and “the bottom is in for silver, too.”

  14. On September 22, 2019 at 4:39 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 22, 2019 at 5:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      ^^ from the article above on QE4:

      However, and the reason why stocks shot up just before 3pm ET on Wednesday, is that that’s when Powell added that “it’s possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet, earlier than we thought. … We’ll be looking at this carefully in coming days and taking it up at the next meeting” in late October. Said otherwise, while the Fed may not have announced QE4 yesterday, but it will likely announce it in the very near future.

  15. On September 22, 2019 at 6:59 pm,
    Matthew says: