Dave’s turn to weigh in on the key aspects of moves in gold vs gold stocks
David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky shares his thoughts on the important factors to watch for gold and the gold stocks. Pay attention to the key levels and some other factors dealing with investor positioning.
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Kootenay Completes Surface Access Agreement on the Copalito Silver-Gold Project, Mexico
http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20191003:nCNWFvQGwa
Matthew – Good news and great to see further progress. Thanks for posting.
I think part of the reason Kootenay remains so well bid is that investors are figuring out how much leverage it will offer when silver goes above the $20-$21 area. The company has plenty of high grade discovery potential but it’s all that low grade stuff that will send the shares flying when it moves “into the money” (becomes economic). We won’t need even close to $50 silver to be very happy with the results.
Watch for a weekly close above .30 cdn, I think it’s coming soon…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p19703095527&a=686292383
After that, .36 or so…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34317266272&a=670512427
This breakout is holding:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p07969717792&a=684654235
Nice charts. Just sitting on my shares right now. I am waiting for a better entry that might never come. If that is the case, I am happy with what I have and plan to hold for the long haul.
BTW – I bought some more ISVLF the other day. I still think it might have lower to go, but the pull back certainly has been low enough to be over.
Impact could definitely make a new low but I bet it won’t even on a test of the 1450 area unless 1450 is destined give way. So I expect to see a positive divergence for Impact and many others should gold fall back again.
GDX:SPY reversal or bear flag? We will find out soon…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42322121741&a=686435930
Maybe the employment report tomorrow will be the driver? If it surprises to the upside, it might tie the Fed’s hand on a near term rate cut despite the economic weakness in manufacturing and services. If it suprises to the light side, perhaps it insures a near term rate cut? IMO, the Dollar looks like it might need a correction at least in the short term. What are your thoughts on the Dollar here?
The short term outlook is mixed but net bullish while the bigger picture is definitely bullish.
UUP daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10085360662
So that’s the dollar versus the euro, etc. In real terms, things don’t look good at all for the buck.
USD:Gold daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04868803082
I don’t think this bounce is going to amount to much:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78078356001
Thanks. That weekly chart of the USD is interesting.
DEBT CLOCK says……….GOLD $6974……………..remember a few months ago ….it was$4800
THINK ABOUT IT>>>>>>>>>>>> 🙂
David since gdxj is really not a true junior miner etf, what etf are out there that are true junior miner etf that are available to purchase. Thanks
There’s SILJ and GOEX. Silver focused SILJ would be my top choice since I think silver is going to do very well. It went up almost 5-fold in 2016…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=9&id=p00394446013&a=632309494
+2 Bingo. If I was going to speculate in a mining ETF (which I haven’t for many years) I would go with SILJ or GOEX. The rest of mining ETFs are just Mid-Tiers, Majors, and Royalty companies.
SILJ typically outperforms most the othe ETFs as well, since Silver miners are so highly leveraged to rising metals prices, and Silver will eventually outperform Gold on a percentage basis.
Having said that, investors that actively manage their own basket of Silver miners by selling overbought rallies, and buying oversold pullbacks can outperform the ETFS by building their own ETFs.
#BuildYourOwnETF
The other advantage to building your own ETF is that you get to decide the most heavily weighted stocks in the portfolio, when to cut them loose, when to add, when to reduce, etc…. If a stock goes on a epic run, you can scalp the gains, reducing the position, and redeploy into companies that haven’t moved as much.
There are many advantaged to actively managing one’s one portfolio, but it takes work, doing research, watching the news, and watching the technical setups in the sector and each individual stock.
If people don’t want to do the work, then something like SILJ or GOEX will still give them exposure to the sector, but will not represent the best performance.
It is not talked about as much but Sprott also has one – SGDJ
My problem with that one is that it is safer than its peers — not what I want in a bull market.
Like GDXJ, it is also not much of a junior play. It’s holdings are mostly mid-caps by my standards:
http://www.sprottetfs.com/holdings/sgdj
Here it is versus GDXJ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGDJ%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47759757093
In 2016, SGDJ gained 67% vs GDX while GDXJ gained 81% vs GDX. Not a big difference and even less so in real life (since capturing it would be difficult) but quality is very overrated when times are good.
I don’t think there is a small cap fund out there that meets your standards! LOL!! But you and others have taught me the benfits of getting smaller, getting more silver, and getting more explorer/developer in bull markets. I have been doing some transitioning along those lines as my my junior silver stocks have really outperformed. Still want a balance between gold and silver stock, but weighting has definitely been toward silver.
I have created my own for myself and JMJ subscribers. I own/cover a total of 25 juniors at the moment with a mix of GOP’s, developer/explorers, and higher risk early stage micro-caps.
Agreed David. The best plan is to #BuildYourOwnETF 🙂
Cheers!
BLS reported that in September the US added 136K jobs, below the 145K expected, however the big story here was that the August number – as has become customary – was revised notably higher, from 130K to 168K, the mirror image of what happened at ADP, which scrambled to catch down to the original NFP print.
Calling Ex – Just checking in to see what you think of Golden Valley these days. To me the chart pattern is looking very good.
I own it, I like it and believe that with Abitibiti Resources moving to new highs on their royalties at and near Malartic, as well as solid Net Smelter Royalties on Bonterras Urban Barry, Siros’s Cheecoo, and O3 Minings property they got from Alexandria minerals.
All are looking prospective to me, and GZZ remains grossly undervalued in relation to it’s stake in RZZ. More of a steady value accruing than a zesty explorer, but a company I’ll keep dumping a few profits in from time to time for the gradual ascent and eventual rerating higher.
Abitibi not Abitibiti…. haha!
GZZ does look good…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GZZ.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74882610474&a=691561391
(I don’t own it)
Good chart Matthew. Thanks for the forks and speed trend lines.
The MACD and stochastics look good too! 🚀
Yes and ADX is constructive with positive (green) trending higher with nice conviction from (black).
Thanks guys for your help and insights!
The miners have actually been pretty good considering the action in the broad stock market averages but they will show much more strength when gold proves itself.