Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 25 Oct, 2019

Wrapping up the week with Amazon earnings results, the balance between US markets and gold, and an update on Brexit

Chris Temple joins me today to share some thoughts on the swings we have seen in the markets so far today. With risk off rallying early on and US markets opening the day in negative territory it started to shift only a couple hours in to the trading day. Now US markets are a fraction of a percent away from all time highs. There are a couple stories driving this and a couple other events that we touch on to wrap up the week.

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Comments:
  1. On October 25, 2019 at 11:13 am,
    Ebolan says:
  2. On October 25, 2019 at 11:46 am,
    markedtofuture says:

    Bitcoin price shoots up as China President endorses blockchain

    https://decrypt.co/10755/bitcoin-price-shoots-up-as-china-president-endorses-blockchain

    • On October 25, 2019 at 1:18 pm,
      spacenormal says:

      That declaration by president Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China is a really big deal for Overstock.Its cheap, dirt cheap. Their 10 percent dividend expected to be announced with-in days. The reason its cheap is because the S.E.C. changed the rules at the last minute on the last attempt to introduce it and the large hedge funds shorted it to almost the June lows.Overstock is a good company with excellent technology for fin-tech with five year Headstart with patents. T-zero. Medici ventures. many more . It has great potential!!

    • On October 25, 2019 at 1:41 pm,
      b says:

      I wonder if the gold bugs got bitcoin wrong.

      • On October 25, 2019 at 2:03 pm,
        CFS says:

        Make no mistake…..

        China and all other countries WILL CREATE THEIR own blockchain fiat currencies.
        No country will give up sovereignty over their currency.
        It will give them CONTROL over their currency, AND EVERY transfer is trackable.

        CHINA is all about control of their people.

      • On October 25, 2019 at 3:43 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        As mentioned a few times, it is really silly to act like investors have to only pick one asset class to ride out the storm (Gold vs Bitcoin) as they are not mutually exclusive.

        Investors can own both Gold and Bitcoin if they like, along with Bond, Tips, REITs, and defensive dividend paying stocks as a hedge against chaos.

        However, what many Gold investors pointed out was that, despite their claims that Bitcoin was Gold 2.0 and would replace the old tired pet rock of Precious Metals, it has NOT played out that way, and there are many differences between the 2 asset classes; even though there are a number of similarities.

        What most of us on here and on other platforms pointed out to enthusiastic Millennial investors, was that at the end of 2017, Bitcoin and the hundreds of Altcoins were clearly in a blow-off the top parabolic BUBBLE move….. and that is exactly what happened.

        Bitcoin fell from over $19,000 down to $3,000, from Christmas of 2017 to to the end of 2018 in just a year.

        That would be like Gold having topped at $1,900 in 2011 and having crashed down to $300 in 2012 (which is NOT what happened).

        Bitcoin has just a little over a decade of price history, and the minute the futures markets got involved it got kicked in the pants hard, and tons of naive trend-following lemmings got their arses handed to them on a crypto platter. Many Altcoins crashed even harder -90% -95% or to their intrinsic value of $0.

        That was the point the Gold investors were trying to make to overly enthusiastic crypto crazies at that time, and had those investors headed the advice of people that had been investing in speculative sectors longer, those sheeple would have lost a whole lot less money.

        It wasn’t unique to Cryptos or Bitcoin, because we saw the same thing play out right after that in the Pot Stocks, just like we had previously seen in Rare Earths, Graphite, Iron Ore, Lithium, and Cobalt. Now we are seeing it again in eSports and Biotech.

        Speculative “get rich quick” hot money always finds a trend to hitch it’s wagon to, and what happened in the Cryptos from 2016 into 2017 was not any different.

        Now, a few years later, most of the garbage cryptos are bu-bye, and the few legitimate crypto and blockchain companies are still around but trading at a fraction of the valuations they once had. Eventually there will be a few winners and they’ll go on to run even higher but which ones and when that happens — none of the HODLers know.

        In fact, having a mantra of Hold On For Dear Life is such a ridiculous investing philosophy as there is a time for buying and a time for selling, and everything is cyclical. For those that got into cryptos early (2008-2012) they went through 2 or 3 other rollercoaster cycles, but when 2017’s ascent happened, it was clearly time to trim or sell to the greater fool. Investors that did that set themselves up very nicely, and those that HODL’d did a round trip all the way up and all the way right back down.

        Bitcoin is still the big dog (for now), but it has not been a good “store of value” and those that claim it replaced Gold were Wrongo in the Congo. If anything, it has been an extremely volatile speculative trading asset class, backed up by nothing more than 1’s and 0’s and perception of value.

        Gold and Bitcoin are not the same, and they are not arch rivals. They are 2 different assets classes, with some overlap, and some glaring differences. That is it.

          • On October 25, 2019 at 3:47 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Christopher Giancarlo, who left the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at the end of his five-year term as chairman in April, told CoinDesk in an interview:

            “One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked.”

          • On October 25, 2019 at 3:49 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Govt officials…..LOL……..bunch of jerks…..CFTC…..

          • On October 25, 2019 at 3:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, it was clearly the introduction of the Future markets that signaled the pin meeting the bubble in the cryptos in late 2017 and into early 2018. Most sane investors saw that coming a mile away, so not a surprise.

            However, it was also the irrational exuberance seen at the top of every other bubble that had the cryptos teeter over the edge on the long crash downwards.

            Parent and grand parents, resistant to get on board from 2008-2017 suddenly went gung-ho into cryptos right after Thanksgiving of 2017 where in November insane amounts of volume showed up heading into Christmas in December, and there were record amounts of new wallets and crypto exchange accounts set up so you could see the lemmings filing into for their turn to head over the cliff.

            Also, when grown adults are spending thousands of dollars trading “Crypto Kitties” that were cartoon cats hatched from eggs on the blockchain in a game, then you know you are at the end of a chapter, and it was time to hit the sell button.

            It was an epic rise, but it wasn’t just the government that tanked it…. rather, human greed, followed by runaway Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. 😉

          • On October 25, 2019 at 3:59 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Are those the grand parents…..now living in the tents…..in San Fran and LA……lol

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, they wagered the house on Bitcoin, and ended up with a tent and bitter taste about taking investing advice from the grandkids. 🙂

        • On October 25, 2019 at 3:54 pm,
          bonzo b. says:

          I am waiting for Bob Moriarity to launch a crypto currency before I buy any. I like gold, silver, jade, and blue star sapphires.

          • On October 25, 2019 at 3:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Lol…….Bob would have to eat crow…..

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:00 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            haha! I have a feeling you’ll be waiting a loooong time then Bonzo Barzini.

            Bob M. is busy exploring the Pilbara in Western Australia with my buddy The Hedgeless Horseman this week, so he’s still betting on gold miners with ounces locked in the vault of the ground.

            Bob M and the Hedgeless Horseman taking time to enjoy the finer things in life 🙂

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1er0r2i-EHkY3pjU8AAU_1t%5B1%5D.jpg

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bob M. just had a great post about Novo over on ceo.ca where his handle is @fingerprint42

            _____________________________________________________________________

            @fingerprint42: – “I love Quinton like a brother but nothing I have ever seen showed me that the fine grain component of the gold is significant. I differ from Quinton in that he would like to see it and I could care less. It isn’t much and the coarse grain gold is far more important and far easier to recover. We saw the Stenihart machine in operation and it will “see” almost pin head size gold but who cares, there isn’t that much of it? The coarse gold grade is off the chart and that is what is important.”

            https://ceo.ca/nvo?0b895cb0f9f1

  3. On October 25, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
    Silverone42 says:

    “Hope and hot air count for more than substance.” Well put! Nothing else counts……until it does. Effects of excessive debt (all types) will triumph over hope and hot air one day soon. JMO

  4. On October 25, 2019 at 3:26 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Latin Spring = Danger for Investors

    by Lobo Tiggre

    “Massive protests have erupted in Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. The potential for more in other Latin American countries has some folks calling it the Latin Spring. The causes of the outbreaks vary, but there’s a common thread and it spells danger for investors—and everyone.”

    https://independentspeculator.com/latin-spring-danger-for-investors/

    • On October 25, 2019 at 3:30 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Just another transfer…of wealth…….from the sheeple to the elite corrupt politicians, and most likely the ciashadow govt ….jmo

      • On October 25, 2019 at 3:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It’s the oldest game in town… the shell game where the suckers get played.

        Those that believe by protesting or asking the government for free handouts is solving anything, instead of just further destroying value, are those suckers. It is sad, but it is a pattern that has played out over and over again throughout human history.

        Some how no matter what the world keeps turning though…

        • On October 25, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Yet, …..just got to get in and get out……everything is a con game……

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:04 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            make hay while the sun is shining, then sell the farm to the greater fool, and get the heck out of dodge.

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:07 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto on that one…………..

          • On October 25, 2019 at 4:08 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            After 70 years , I am finally catching on…….. lol

          • On October 25, 2019 at 5:46 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +70

      • On October 25, 2019 at 7:32 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        HOLY TOLEDO, I never knew you were 70 years old, Jerry.

        • On October 25, 2019 at 7:38 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Did anyone here listen to Roger Stone being interviewed today by Alex Jones from Info-Wars, the link is on The Drudge Report. I have always liked Roger Stone, he understands the dynamics of politics. I get more from him in ten minutes than two weeks of reading The Ker Report. LOL! DT

        • On October 25, 2019 at 7:42 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          CFS, It doesn’t matter how negative interest rates work, the ball you must follow is how the globalist’s are taking the World into a cashless society.DT

          • On October 25, 2019 at 7:59 pm,
            CFS says:

            DT, think about how the US creates money.
            It involves the sale of treasuries.
            That means someone HAS to buy treasuries.
            It does not matter WHAT GLOBALISTS WANT, if they can’t find a mechanism to sell treasuries.

    • On October 25, 2019 at 8:04 pm,
      CFS says:

      VENEZUELA HAD RIOTS, as did Brazil and the People aren’t exactly happy in Peru.
      Even little land-locked Paraguay has had problems.

  5. On October 25, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
    CFS says:

    I UNDERSTAND HOW JAPAN CAN SURVIVE WITH NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES…..
    https://www.cfr.org/blog/puzzle-japans-balance-payments-what-explains-strong-foreign-demand-jgbs?sp_mid=60814119&sp_rid=YXJ0aHVyY3V0dGVuQHlhaG9vLmNvbQS2

    Can anyone explain how that could work for the US ? I don’t see it.

  6. On October 25, 2019 at 6:39 pm,
    CFS says:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/10/25/subprime-auto-loans-blow-up-60-day-delinquencies-shoot-past-financial-crisis-peak/

    WELL THAT WAS OBVIOUS. With ridiculously long auto-loans, plus the fact the borrower is underwater from driving off the lot until about 5 years out, or forever, depending on make of auto.
    No wonder banks have problems….. Just wait for a housing market turn down as inflation and interest rates turn up.
    Can anyone explain how house prices can go up as interest rates increase ?
    IT ISN’T POSSIBLE. The government is locked into trying to drop interest rates until banking collapse.

    • On October 25, 2019 at 7:44 pm,
      JMiller says:

      Wolf is one of the smartest guys out there. Runs a very good site unlike most.

  7. On October 25, 2019 at 8:40 pm,
    CFS says:

    https://youtu.be/fc1JWYebUD4

    MALONEY AND STOEFERLE

  8. On October 25, 2019 at 9:38 pm,
    CFS says:
  9. On October 25, 2019 at 9:49 pm,
    CFS says:

    Sidney Powell’s kill shot

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reuv08K3d2Q