Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 31 Oct, 2019

The possibility of a new high in gold in the face of increasing open interest

Craig Hemke joins me today to share his thoughts on the likelihood of a new high for the year in gold and silver. He points to the increase in open interest in gold as something that might hold back a major move higher, however silver could be a different story.

Click here to visit Craig’s site and follow along with his comments on the PMs.

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  1. On October 31, 2019 at 1:39 pm,
    jb says:

    Thanks, Question for Craig, I sometimes look at the disaggregated COT (link to short format here) This separates the Producers from swap dealers . Seems like the Producers are more bearish on gold than the banks. I only know enough to be dangerous so Im interested in TFs views.

  2. On October 31, 2019 at 2:21 pm,
    Craig Hemke says:

    In my opinion, don’t trust the CoT respondents to honestly represent their positions as it all gets blended together. The “swap dealers” on the CoT might be NET short 150,000 contracts but the latest Bank Participation Report showed the “Banks” to be NET short 191,000. So this line gets deliberately blurred between legitimate producer hedging and forward sales versus illegitimate Bank price speculation and manipulation. Thus, to the extent that the CFTC-generated data has any value at all, I just monitor open interest and the “legacy” CoT report and I compare this information to levels seen in the past.

  3. On October 31, 2019 at 2:28 pm,
    jb says:

    Thanks Craig, I’ll keep looking for the holy grail and Im honored that you answered my question.

  4. On October 31, 2019 at 2:31 pm,
    Edward says:

    If gold rockets to $1600’s-$1700 before year end, a lot af commentators are going to be scrambling to explain it.

    • On November 1, 2019 at 10:07 am,
      Matthew says:

      They’ll have a lot to explain if gold has already bottomed. The 1465 low happened less than a month after the September high. Most commentators thought gold would go MUCH lower and take many months to do it. Most of those guys will probably double-down on their outlook even as the whole sector moves much higher. It’s happened many times before.