David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 5 Nov, 2019

This is a very tough precious metals market to trade

Dave Erfle joins me to discuss the big move down for gold and silver and why this is an almost impossible market to short term trade. We look at the positive signs that were showing up heading into this week and today which seems to have subsided.

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Comments:
  1. On November 5, 2019 at 11:47 am,
    CFS says:

    I’M AMAZED THAT ANYONE CAN STILL BELIEVE THAT GOLD AND SILVER ARE TRADED AS IF IN FREE MARKETS.
    Look at J.P. Morgan’s derivatives……
    But what do I know?

    • On November 5, 2019 at 12:21 pm,
      Paul says:

      Global economy not doing good money pouring into usa. Mkt going higher. Big banks will drive gold down to wash out metals mkt before it breakout. People getting tired of this metals mkt and are going to sell and join in mkt. When big boys get gold to washout they will sell the mkt and buy vold at bottom. They always win. I have been watch and listening to gold anyalst for last two years and glad I didnt follow their hype and made good money in stocks.
      I will be selling into the trade deal hype and end year rally and flip my money into gold miners when they breakdown near gdx 25 area.

    • On November 5, 2019 at 4:35 pm,
      4 oz says:

      The dog & Pony show that is the lamestream media in the USA efforts at total Trump/Total distraction has effectively diverted the publics attention away from the clear manipulation going on in the markets; Not to mention the seemingly obviously banking industry travails that indicate there is quite a scene change going on behind the curtain –and a whole new Act to begin as the curtain rises and the show continues……

      • On November 5, 2019 at 10:03 pm,
        b says:

        People dont need a “dog & Pony show” for distraction, they’ve never understood what was going on.

    • On November 6, 2019 at 12:43 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      CFS: As you have proven so many times in the past you don’t know much about anything. If you took the labels off gold and silver historic charts and compared them to any other commodities you would realize there is no difference.

      Because there is no difference.

      They are commodities, not some weird religion. They go up and they go down and it’s actually predictable if you are one of the few who understand how commodities work.

      Maybe you don’t get it at all. All financial markets are manipulated. They are now, they always have been and they always will be.

      Whining about free markets is the act of someone who lives in a dream world.

      Would that be you?

  2. On November 5, 2019 at 1:59 pm,
    CFS says:

    Dave Janda on USA Watchdog, discussing I.G. Horowitz and problems with CIA, FBI using Clinton Foundation. Also Uranium One, and why things are taking so long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpxTyCnkYm0

  3. On November 5, 2019 at 3:15 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    I need to hear what Michael Oliver says this week. Momentum charts.

  4. On November 5, 2019 at 3:34 pm,
    TONY says:

    Medicure made an announcement yesterday about an issuer bid at $6.50.
    Stock is trading around $4.65.
    Is this a good buy right now.
    What are downside risks.
    TIA for any help.

    http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C%3aMPH-2827137&symbol=MPH&region=C

  5. On November 5, 2019 at 3:36 pm,
    Nigel says:

    I’ve grown rather sanguine about the precious metals market over the last 20 years. I also know I’m not good at timing, so I’m just going to sit on what I’ve got and not try and double guess, I’m still 99.999% sure the market will go my way, just not sure when

  6. On November 5, 2019 at 4:29 pm,
    CFS says:

    SCUM ON PONDS AND IN CALIFORNIAN POLITICS RISES TO THE SURFACE:

    https://theintercept.com/2019/11/04/pge-bailout-bankruptcy-lobbying/

  7. On November 5, 2019 at 5:10 pm,
    russell hamilton says:

    Who will benifit from lower short term interest rates ?? Trump idea of fed lowering short term rates is bad for SAVERS we need SAVERS to have incentive to save. I think PENCE move to take power will be aided by SENATOR MITCHEL . It must happen to preserve SENATE POWER for REPUBS. oTHER WISE dems take control of SENATE. I predict market will largely ignore PENCE TAKING CHARGE. Dont be suprised S

  8. On November 5, 2019 at 5:49 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Point and Figure chart price objectives for SPY and GDX are 412 and 54, respectively. For real money, gold, it’s 1950. The no-brainer here is the miners since SPY’s move wouldn’t amount to much in real terms if gold makes it to its target.

  9. On November 5, 2019 at 6:41 pm,
    russell hamilton says:

    Narrow win by Dem for GOV of kentucky spells trouble for REPUBS . I am all in on AMY KLOBUCHAR s

  10. On November 5, 2019 at 10:45 pm,
    CFS says:

    Greg Hunter interviews G. Edward Griffin:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S37N8McqpWY

  11. On November 6, 2019 at 5:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Growth Fears Prompt Exchange Traded Funds To Pile Into Gold

    Financial Times – Harry Dempsey in London •November 4, 2019

    “Demand for the yellow metal among retail and institutional investors more than doubled compared with the same quarter last year to reach 408.6 tonnes, of which almost two-thirds — 258 tonnes — was attributable to buying by ETFs, according to data from the World Gold Council, an industry-backed body. The balance of about 150 tonnes came from investors buying gold bars and coins directly. The rally has boosted the share prices of major producers, including Barrick Gold and Newmont Goldcorp.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/02da9274-ff1d-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

  12. On November 6, 2019 at 5:51 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (BBB) (BBBXF) Brixton Metals Announces Private Placement of up to $3,000,000

    @nasdaq on 6 Nov 2019

    “The Shares will be priced at $0.20 per Share and the FT Shares will be priced at $0.24 per FT Share. The Charitable FT Shares are priced at $0.29 per Charitable FT Share.”

    Chairman and CEO of Brixton Metals, Gary R. Thompson stated, “We are pleased with the exploration results from the 2019 season, from which some results are still pending. While we anticipate ending 2019 with more than $3 million in cash, this financing will allow us to effectively plan for our 2020 exploration programs. These funds will give us the potential to materially advance select wholly owned projects providing the best position from which to create shareholder value”.

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/brixton-metals-announces-private-placement-of-up-to

  13. On November 6, 2019 at 8:14 am,
    larry says:

    https://tos.mx/Yis4svN
    Daily gold futures look to bounce about half of their harmonic number of 34 or about 17 points from yesterdays low of 1480 near to 1497…This would correspond with the down channel boundary line plus the TAS point of control middle hashed blue horizontal line…This looks to be a light volume counter trend rally…IMHO,,,Time is the master…GLTT

  14. On November 6, 2019 at 8:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    I still think gold has another leg higher before it puts in the kind of top that almost everyone seems to think we have right now. If that’s correct, I think the minimum upside for gold corresponds with GLD’s P&F chart price objective of 154. Bull or bear, strong trends are great at keeping the majority on the wrong side.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p90600645725&a=698205977

    • On November 7, 2019 at 12:09 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      That was the way I was looking at things too Matthew. I expected one more move higher before gold toppes and headed down for a while, but maybe we’re getting a little out of the way right now.

  15. On November 6, 2019 at 8:56 am,
    larry says:

    /GC some real hard and fast short covering over the past 20 minutes…..1500 is next real doable target zone….then 1510 then 1517 based on Tom Demark setup 9 count resistance levels on several time frames…GLTT…It will not be easy it will not feel good…lol

  16. On November 6, 2019 at 9:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    The week’s not over but it looks like GDX:SPY fork support is going to hold for the 3rd consecutive week:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73378721871&a=686435930

  17. On November 6, 2019 at 9:15 am,
    larry says:

    one minute through240 minute are now either a confirmed buy or a buy signal….lol

  18. On November 6, 2019 at 9:15 am,
    larry says:

    half of the above just switched…lol,,,lmao

  19. On November 6, 2019 at 9:18 am,
    larry says:

    if /GC retest of 1497 fails it is top time…if not let overnighters fluff it up….lmao…lol…lol

  20. On November 6, 2019 at 9:20 am,
    Matthew says:

    It is a bullish sign for the miners that risky, speculative SILJ didn’t go below “P” or 50 on the RSI(14) yesterday while “safe” GDX did:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05192035725

    • On November 6, 2019 at 9:50 am,
      larry says:

      a /Gc price below TAS support 1482.4 is were the buyers have quit….The rest is speculation..gltt

    • On November 6, 2019 at 10:01 am,
      larry says:

      /GC my daily target is 1412…my weekly target is 1286 if we break 1482.4…Of course anything may actually occur!

      • On November 6, 2019 at 10:10 am,
        Matthew says:

        I think 1450 will hold if 1482 breaks but such a move would probably be worse news for the miners than seems logical since the fear of a much lower gold price would be huge and widespread.

    • On November 6, 2019 at 10:07 am,
      larry says:

      /GC…alright y dity…Here comes the 10 minute chart retest of todays 1496 high……will it break or will it hold now…well will it break or hold…lalala

      • On November 6, 2019 at 10:13 am,
        Matthew says:

        I think the market is using up time to wear out the bulls and embolden the bears. It seems to happen often with corrections that are shallower than expected.

        • On November 6, 2019 at 10:23 am,
          larry says:

          Well that would be an understatement Mathew…You could put a consolidation containment box around price action…Since 1525 high and the 1478 low area since 9/30/19 till and including today…..one huge consolidation…is it accumulation or distribution…someone has that data i do not know how to approach that Mathew

    • On November 6, 2019 at 10:33 am,
      larry says:

      /GC 30 minute chart put in a classic wave g(7) down with lower price but stronger RSI(14)…Classic tradeable bottom…Now we are in leg E up and trying for an F up if the 10 minute chart co-operates…Wave G or 7 up is the pattern completion…and 1499 is TAS box top on the 60 minute chart…so, patients until then, but 1507 is natural bounce zone on 30 minute due to the tom demark set-up 9 count breakdown zone

    • On November 6, 2019 at 10:37 am,
      larry says:

      https://tos.mx/Ni6qn3Z

      my 30 minute chart with wave counts and Tom Demark breakdown resistance lines above at higher price

  21. On November 6, 2019 at 9:38 am,
    larry says:

    Caveat…If equity markets were to break hard down around here the first move may be back into gold…But that would be wrong…A deflationary contraction in the economy is not supportive of gold inflation…imho

    • On November 6, 2019 at 11:12 am,
      Matthew says:

      But the response to a deflationary contraction in the economy is always an inflationary expansion of the money supply. So smart money flows into gold to avoid currency dilution. No shareholder likes to be diluted and holding dollars allows the bad managers of USA, Inc. to dilute you constantly and with impunity.

      • On November 6, 2019 at 11:44 am,
        larry says:

        Listen Matthew you are a great technician…You may be right in your analysis…I made money short in Dust since near the GDX top…Now is the decision point…I will put it this way..simple …Two consecutive days close above 1420 and your bull scene is correct…But two consecutive days below the 1482 price and the consolidation has been distributive ….I do not know enough about the accumulation/distribution indicator you show…I WILL definitely be looking into that…Regards…Sort of funny …Just two people posting makes a market…lol

        • On November 6, 2019 at 11:47 am,
          larry says:

          correction in the tiny typewriter box….1520 not 1420

        • On November 6, 2019 at 1:06 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I am also just opining. The merits of your price-based approach are undeniable, however, I can’t ignore the other factors that help me to get a handle on how confident I should be about the bigger picture. I try to be unbiased when dealing with charts and new information but due to the time and energy I’ve spent, am very biased when it comes to my macro outlook. I think I “know” some things that could give me an edge and that, of course, can be dangerous.
          My interest in the smallest junior miners would be greatly diminished if I focused only on price.

        • On November 6, 2019 at 1:21 pm,
          Matthew says:
  22. On November 6, 2019 at 9:49 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On November 6, 2019 at 11:55 am,
      larry says:

      I just follow my charts…in my old days others and my opinion or fantasy narrative cost me dearly….I would rather miss the first 10% up or down than be in position purgatory waiting….And my trading is better so I miss the first 2 to 5 % up and down…with clearly defined stops and targets…I am just opining and not lecturing…I see your work and would call you for a consult anytime!…regards and GLTT

      • On November 6, 2019 at 1:08 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Not sure you were referring to Oliver but his work is not based on opinion or narrative as far as I know (I’m not a subscriber of his).

    • On November 6, 2019 at 5:36 pm,
      larry says:

      Matthew I listened to Michael Oliver…Very very great approach…..I am open to either way..eg agnostic to which way things break…I will be in it to win it