Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Tue 26 Nov, 2019

Updated comments on Gold, GDX, SIL and Silver

is with us today to share his updated targets and times lines for the precious metals. We start with gold and GDX then move to silver and SIL.

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  1. On November 26, 2019 at 1:40 pm,
    cfs says:

    Novo Plans Bulk Mechanical Sorter Trials for Egina and Beatons Creek

    VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov. 26, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Novo Resources Corp. (“Novo” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: NVO; OTCQX: NSRPF) is pleased to announce it is planning mechanical sorting test work on multi-tonne samples of gold-bearing conglomerate from its Beatons Creek project and gold-bearing gravels from its Egina project with Australia’s two major mechanical sorter proponents, Steinert Global and TOMRA. Mechanical sorting of small particles of gold is seen as a potentially important breakthrough for Novo and its various nuggety gold projects throughout its large land holdings across the Pilbara.


    I also want to make one further comment regarding the price of gold versus silver.
    It is almost universally assumed or stated that Gold has always been valued more highly than silver.
    To the best of my knowledge that statement is not correct.
    Prior to about the 21st Pharoahic dynasty in Egypt, silver was considered more valuable than gold. Only since about the time of Pharoah Shoshenq II has gold been more expensive/valued than silver.

    • On November 26, 2019 at 8:57 pm,
      g kaiser says:

      have you got a reference for that claim?

  2. On November 26, 2019 at 2:23 pm,
    FIH says:

    Hi Friends! Jim Rickards has stated that the IMF SDR will be implemented before December 31, 2019. There seems to be a convergence of Financial Institution problems coming to a head around mid December, notably repo resolution? Deutsche Bank? etc. If this happens, what do you think will be the effect on Prescious Metals? Highest Regards, FIH

  3. On November 26, 2019 at 3:04 pm,
    cfs says:

    I am not the “expert” that Rickards considers himself to be, but I will guess he’s wrong.

  4. On November 26, 2019 at 3:38 pm,
    FIH says:

    Hi Friends! Having read Rickard’s books (good reads in my opinion) and listened to his experience and credentials I feel that he can be classified an Insider, if not an Insider’s Insider. Whether he is an expert, I think, is left up for us, the individual, to decide. To look back after major turning points there seems to be the thought out there that the “Elites” like to be able to say that “We the Sheep” were given ample warning! I won’t take your bet, Cory. To my knowledge this is the 1st concrete date put out there from someone who might have real insight. He clearly puts his reputation on the line. Highest Regards, FIH

  5. On November 26, 2019 at 4:01 pm,
    cfs says:

    (I’m not Cory)
    The one fact in Rickard’s favor, and I suspect the probable cause of his dating, is the dramatic increase in Repos.

    The main reason I think he iswrong is that if DeutscheBank or even JPMorgan fail, I don’t think there’s enough money for a bail-out. Plus, China is part of the SDR system, and I believe they would prefer to see a collapse of the West over saving it by bail-outs.

  6. On November 26, 2019 at 4:54 pm,
    markedtofuture says:

    Penny Kelly Interview. Cryptos, Politics, World, Problems

    • On November 26, 2019 at 9:23 pm,
      cfs says:
      • On November 27, 2019 at 7:12 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Putin Predicting US Dollar Collapse is Serious Warning – Catherine Austin Fitts

        By Greg Hunter On November 27, 2019

        Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts thinks Vladimir Putin saying “the dollar is going to collapse soon” is a flashing warning for the U.S. dollar’s value in the not-so-distant future. Fitts explains, “What Putin is saying is the dollar is going into a steep decline, and what was interesting about his comment is he said ‘soon.’ . . . What is the ability of the U.S. military versus the Russian or Chinese military to defend the dollar’s position? That is intelligence that Putin has, and because Putin has this intelligence, people really stood up and I really stood up and took notice. If Putin has access to that intelligence, and I don’t, which is saying the dollar could go into a deep decline, we need to take a serious look at it. The dollar is clearly under pressure, and if you look at reserves, the central banks are buying gold and selling dollars, including the Russians and Chinese.”

  7. On November 26, 2019 at 7:02 pm,
    cfs says:

    Happy Turkey Day to y’all:

    • On November 26, 2019 at 7:38 pm,
      buzz. says:

      Geeze; I’ll grant Doc the benefit of the doubt until or unless Mr market takes honerable mention.

  8. On November 27, 2019 at 5:13 am,
    buzz says:

    Geeze; I’ll grant Doc the benefit of the doubt until or unless Mr market takes honorable mention.

  9. On November 27, 2019 at 6:06 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (BAR) (BALMF) Balmoral Expands Detour Gold Trend Holdings

    by @nasdaq on 27 Nov 2019

    • On November 27, 2019 at 6:08 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining Discovers New Prospective Areas at its Tilt Cove Gold Project and Initiates Trenching and Drilling Program

      by @newswire on 27 Nov 2019

    • On November 27, 2019 at 9:06 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Man, (BAR) Balmoral has really been on the move this week ever since the deal between (KL) Kirkland Lake’s takeover of (DGC) Detour Gold was announced, as they have that area surrounded.

      While this news is great, it is odd how much higher it’s valuation has gone, when nothing fundamentally has changed for BAR other than staking more land around the area. Everyone already knew Detour Gold had a mine by them, and Balmoral and Wallbridge have been having good drill results in those areas for 2-3 years.

      However now sentiment has changed and it’s a hot “Area Play”. It is odd because it’s been an area play for years already, but it just dawned on investors this week.

      I’m not complaining because my BAR position has been skyrocketing, but it is just so odd to watch the madness of crowds in action.

      • On November 27, 2019 at 9:42 am,
        David says:

        Ex: Thanks for convincing me a day or two ago to buy back into Balmoral. You probably were unaware of the convincing part, but thanks for your input.

        • On November 27, 2019 at 10:19 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Ha! thansk. While l I don’t want to convince anyone to do anything, as we all need to do our own due diligence and make our own calls to buy or sell anything, I’m glad you are in the mix with Balmoral. Lot further to move from here. Ever Upward!

  10. On November 27, 2019 at 8:52 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Considering tax loss selling… I generally look for solid producers or developers that have sold off due to panic selling from an over-reaction from fickel resource investors, or that have just tracked lower due to macro forces (like the Uranium, Lithium, and Zinc miners in 2019).

    There are some amazing deals out there right now in base metals and energy metals, but it should also be noted that there are many Gold and Silver miners in the precious metals sector that have pulled back in just the genearl malaise, and now investors are clearing out these dogs at year-end for a tax loss sale.

    (I’ll confess to selling a few dogs or partial positions the last 2 weeks myself, to offset the gains from early and middle part of this year).

    It feels good to clear out bad juju positions if you feel there is a fundamental flaw in a company, but see opportunity elsewhere. However, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, so I see people throwing out the baby with the bathwater in many stocks.

    • On November 27, 2019 at 9:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Just today, I saw (MXSG) Mexus Gold sell down by 1/3. I’ve had a longstanding free-ride position in this stock since the epic move up in 2016, but I’ve traded in and out of shares for swing trades a few times to scalp here and there.

      I looked at their news, and didn’t see anything today to warrant a 33% haircut, but did see that their leaching PH was off slightly on a press release from the 18th. The company was very transparent with the challenges, but also described how they fixed them and they are back to producing gold again through the heap leach pads. So a delay… yes, but problem is solved and they’re producing again.

      Investor sentiment in their room over at is terrible and all I see is whining and folks throwing in the towel. While I agree there are still operational risks, they are far more derisked now than they ever have been at any point in the past, and their stock has been smashed down to a 1/3 of a penny again….. so I’ve be gradually acquiring small amounts of shares with stink bids.

      Then in a month or two the company will update shareholders on the Gold they are producing and selling, and folks will realize that they really are in business as a gold producer (finally), and the share price should recover higher for outsized percentage moves. It is super high risk and speculative for me, but just an example of the exaggerated moves we see in the Jr mining space.


      This is the news that has investors all riled up, but I see an acknowledgment of what wasn’t working, and shift to what will work when I read it. Some just see a problem and bail, and they’ll be selling MXSG for a tax loss, and I’ll will be selling it for a tax gain in 2020 when it moves much higher off gold production news.

      Mexus Gold US (OTCQB: MXSG) confirmed that leaching commenced 11/12/2019 at its Santa Elena mine located in Caborca, Mexico. Initial returns showed .48gpt but slowed due to improper Ph control. To mitigate this problem the company installed an automated Ph/Cyanide aeration control pumping system which was tested and worked as expected. Gold recovery has resumed as well as additional mining of new mineralized material from the Lucky Strike open pit. Mexus President Paul Thompson states this recent correction will allow for a substantial increase in gold recovery from the 1.8gpt Au head ore. ”

      • On November 27, 2019 at 9:11 am,
        Matthew says:

        Ex, I think this is the real reason it sold off:

        *I don’t own it or follow it.

        • On November 27, 2019 at 9:23 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agree, but that is people looking at where it is has been, and not where it is headed.

          Mexus has had a number of misfires getting into production and it has taken them 2 years of noodling around with the Merrill Crowe, the chemistry to get the clay out, they had to fire their JV partners MarMar last year, and bring in a whole new team in 2019. The sell off has been warranted from where they were valued in 2016, and the whole sector took a beating in 2017 and 2018.

          However, moves like we saw today are not warranted, if investors consider that when such a tiny micro-cap company does finally start selling gold at todays prices and gets these leach pads going, then their economics are going to swivel a 180 and start looking better and better.

          I guess my point is that most investors have extreme recency bias, and this causes them to get over-confident that a good narrative will keep growing at the same rate and causes them to chase overbought stocks into the peak; but conversely, they sell a company going through a turnaround by only looking a where things have been, instead of recalculating where things are headed.

          The Mexus team definitely needs to demonstrate to investors that they can “Show Me the Money” and produce gold and sell it at a profit. I just didn’t see a reason for a 33% sell-off of market value in 1 day, when investors really just need to be patient and wait for the numbers in a few months of what they produced and the revenues it brought it.

          It’s akin to someone going by a farmer and saying, well you sure spent a ton of money planting all that corn, and on tractors, and water, and fertilizer so your books don’t look so hot, right before the fall harvest. The better plan would be to wait until after harvest to look at the farmers books and go, Oh, I see now after you sold your corn crops, why you spent all that money and did all the work on the front end.

          Then again, maybe I’m just crazy 🙂

          • On November 27, 2019 at 9:43 am,
            Matthew says:

            I think it’s also where it currently is, not just has been. The company posted a big loss and is almost out of cash but has nearly 1.5 billion shares out. Another financing looks inevitable even if the necessary corrective steps have been taken.

            I don’t know if you recall but when my “wonderful” IPT hit 11 cents a few years ago, I said that it deserved it at that time because that was all it was worth. Its assets in the ground were “out of the money” for the most part. Of course I was a buyer and thought it would move up significantly but that was a gamble. Then it did move up significantly but the reality at the time of its low was that it was priced right.

            WAY too many individual investors are too quick to think that their shares are ridiculously undervalued and that everyone else is out to lunch but I have found that to be rarely the case. When optimistic speculators bid things up ahead of schedule, smart and deep pocketed speculators are always ready to pull them back based on the current reality. Hugely slashed prices do not always represent a good value or worthwhile opportunity. Likewise, hugely increased pricing does not always represent a poor value or a bad opportunity (KL in recent years, for example; or Claude in ’15-’16).

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:03 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, Matthew I completely agree with that thesis overall, and concure that it doesn’t always mean because a company is oversold and smashed down that it isn’t well deserved doesn’t always mean that the company is at a great value. Likewise, if a company is overbought and plumbing new highs every week, it doesn’t necessarily mean that a company is still good value or deserves it (like the Cantex at $6+ earlier this year).

            With Mexus (MXSG) , they have a current loss because they haven’t got production revenues on the books in any meaningful way yet (just trial mining) and they invested all their money into the Merrill Crowe, Leach pad improvements, drilling and blasting. So their present financial don’t refelct their production and gold sales yet, but that is what they are currently doing, and it will bring in the revenues.

            That was the point I was making above about chiding a farmer for all the money and debt they accured planting corn right before harvest.

            MXSG haven’t done any raises, aren’t part of the Canadian PP racket, and used debt to build the company, but have paid down most of their debt. Yes, it is possible they may actually need to raise in the future, but they’ll also have incoming revenues in the next few months.

            Most of the funds were put into the company by Paul the owner, and/or those costs were fronted by their old JV partner Mar Mar that they fired last year.

            Mexus has had billions of shares out for years now, even when the stock was at $.20 (it is currently at $.004) with roughly the same amount of shares out. That is quite a contrast in valuations, but comical because they are actually producing gold now, where back at $.20 it was just the plan to go into production, so they are more derisked now, and have new geos involved that they didn’t have back then assisting with exploration.

            It just seems like a majore valuation mismatch to me (because the gold production is going on at present, but the revenues haven’t been realized yet), but hey I could be wrong. My opinion is that once they “prove it” to the market, it will be rerated higher as a producer (not like a starving explorer).

            I rode Mexus from $.0035 up to $.20 in 2016 when it was just on the narrative to moving into production, and I’ve been buying today from the high $.003’s to the low $.004s to make a similar un in 2020 now that they are finally producing Gold (3 years later).

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            concure = concur

            majore = major

            un = run

            damn smart phone typing….

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:24 am,
            Matthew says:

            The company must be selling new shares directly into the market because it raised $246,000 in 2018 and 425,145 in 2019. That’s significant dilution considering the share price and I wonder what the numbers were for 2017, 2016, etc. Both basic and diluted shares outstanding grew by about 50% in 2019. The billion mark was surpassed this year.
            So it looks like they’re running a racket of their own and with that many shares out and a $5M market cap, there’s a problem in my book.

            It might turn out just fine but I doubt very much that it will see the same percentage move that you enjoyed in 2016, or anything close to it.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I just reread you post and should add I agree that hugely increased pricing doesn’t always represent poor value (like the Claude or KL examples… same with Great Bear or Silvercrest the last 2 years).

            However, those are exceptional companies and the exceptions. Most miners that make a parabolic move higher, round the parabola back down to the other side and there are dozens and dozens of those examples every year in the mining sector. With most miners overbought is overbought and the deep pockets will pull those back as well.

            Often in miners, oversold could mean major issues, and not a deal, so I agree the main point. However, there are times where investors get too pessimistic and say the music is over, when it is not …. like in 2015 for Scorpio Mining before it combined with US Silver and Gold to form Americas Silver, or when everyone thought the water issues at Excellon were game over and it rose like a champ, or when everyone thought Silvercorp was going to close for the story the 2 wacko Canadians pumped in documentaries, only for those to be debunked and Silvercorp has risen steadily from early 2016 to present as of the premier producers in the Silver/Zinc/Lead space. When I was positioning in Klondex for their turnaround, I got a lot of flak over at, but then they spiked higher and then got bought out because the potential for a rerating was seen by a larger company.

            The markets can be very inefficient as they are made up of human herd-thinkers, and just because a company has been smashed down doesn’t mean the market got its valuation correct in the short-term; especially when there is a sea change in that comany (ie a discovery, a permit, picking up a mill at a fraction of the cost, or in the case of Mexus mentioned above… going into production).

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            BTW – Matthew I appreciate the feedback and your perspectives, and agree it may not have quite as much leverage as last time, but then again, last time is wasn’t producing gold into such a high gold price.

            Their AISC is around $500 at $1500 Gold so that is a huge margin and one of the lower costs I’ve seen in any Gold producer, so I’m factoring that in with my turnaround thesis.

            I haven’t seen any press releases about doing capital raises, but didn’t realize the shares had grown that much from 2018 into 2019.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:46 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Back in 2016 (MXSG) had a market cap over $90 Million and they were just a developer then. While they do have more shares out now, their market cap of $6 Million when they are now finally in production seems mismatched as well. Hell there are explorers with no defined resources with 3-5 times that market cap, and they don’t have blasting permits, leach pads being filled with ore, or a mill that is producing gold.

            I’m not suggesting Mexus is worth $90 Million at this point, but far more than $6 M.

            There are plenty of Australian companies with over a billion shares out with market caps many many multiples higher. While I don’t like such a bloated share count, I just believe this has the potential to be an easy multibagger from today’s prices at 1/3 of a penny.

            Even it if gets to $.02 instead of $.20, that is still a huge win from these levels.

            Again, maybe I’ll get spanked hard, but I just don’t see much downside from here, unless they fail, and it goes to $.0. That is a big risk, but one I’m willing to take.

            However, this discussion today does have me more reserved than the enthusiasm I felt earlier today. Again, good thoughts.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:50 am,
            Matthew says:

            The key to the permanence of a parabolic move is found in the driver of the move. One has be good at determining the real value added that caused the move. The entire move is rarely safe from a pullback but much of it can be if the shares jump from no value to substantial value based on fundamentals and not hope and promises. That can come from a real discovery or even a move up in the metal being mined. Remember all the “experts” who were calling the initial move off of the 2016 low a parabola? Those guys thought the gold/silver miners would come right back down that February(!). Instead, the miners went vastly higher (and I explained then why it was a legit repricing before they went higher). The metals had gone up and were going to continue to go up and you can’t get a better fundamental driver than that. Now, the miners did come down significantly later but that was because the metals came down significantly. Despite that, however, the miners never came close to retracing the entire move which proved once and for all that the “parabola” concern was bogus.

            Shaky reasons for big moves are, of course, very different. No matter how convincing the price action, if hype is the driver, one should force themselves to sell the rise aggressively no matter how uncomfortable it might be at the time. Obviously, he latter part of a legitimate spike always contains froth as hype always finds its way into a good move so it’s never easy to get your selling just right.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 10:53 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes the market can be very inefficient but I’ve found that it is much more efficient than most people realize most of the time. Again, most, not all of the time.

      • On November 27, 2019 at 9:14 am,
        Excelsior says:

        There are a few other really depressed smaller and newer gold producers like Harte Gold and Northern Vertex, that had a few issues moving into commercial production, which almost always happens, and their shares have been smashed down. However, investors are thrashing around pissed and worried the sky is falling when it isn’t that bad. Many are bailing on them as tax loss sales, and I’m just scooping up more on certain days, with realization that they are in gold production into a larger pattern of a rising gold price, and they are figuring out their operation challenges and solving them, so moving forward when they start turing things around, investors that bailed at their lows will missed the improved production metrics (that may take until mid 2020 to get sorted out), but will have gotten things backwards. They should be buying into the lows for the #TurnAround play, but then again, if they had too high of expectations and had them dashed, they likely got emotional and hit sell. Their loss, others future gains.

        We’re seeing the same thing in Jaguar mining right now where investors are in a huff and puff, over the most recent operational results, but aren’t looking at the trajectory of where things are headed now with the huge $25 Million capital raise and what that allowed them to do. They’ve retired old debt, and this allows them to remove their hedges for next year, and got new equipment, and invested into to both their major mining complexes. (JAG) projected to be able to producer 100,000 ounces next year, and while they’ve missed that target in 2018 and 2019, I believe they’ve got their ducks in a row to hit 100,000 ounces next year and it will likely be a much higher gold price and their costs will be coming down. When others see recent pain, I’m seeing future gains.

        Cheers and good luck to everyone as they scalp deals over the next few weeks in Tax Loss Selling season. Tis the season!

        • On November 27, 2019 at 11:03 am,
          Matthew says:

          Jag is one company that really benefited from Sprott’s interest since it really needed the investment. The dilution is a bummer but not when compared to the problem that the new cash solved. It still has great potential and the downside now seems small when compared to the upside but it won’t move up as easily as it did in 2016.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 11:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. I’d settle for 5-6 bagger from here, instead of shooting for 9-10 bagger.

            Also at one point (once the shares are in a rising price environment) a share rollback will help attract larger funds to the story. Most won’t touch stocks under $3-$4.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 12:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The wild card is the gold price. Jag is highly levered to gold so a 10 or even 20 bagger wouldn’t surprise me if gold performs decently. Net income was $1.1M on 19,000+ ounces at $1320 per ounce so a $1620 per ounce average would send net income up a theoretical 5-fold+ to $5.7M per quarter. If Jag delivers on the 100,000/year goal, net income would rise to $7.5M/quarter. The actual number will probably be very different and possibly better (if AISC come down).
            P/Es of 30 or 40 or even more are not uncommon in this sector so $30M/year could translate to a market cap of $1B+ pretty easily (current MCAP is about $100M cdn). That’s by no means a “take it to the bank” projection but IS quite possible and that’s with gold at just $1620, average.
            Mining is always risky business so plenty could go wrong, as almost everyone here knows.

          • On November 27, 2019 at 12:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That was a good walk through where things could potentially go if gold prices rise into the mid $1600s, and their costs come down, and their hedges are removed, and they hit the 100,000 ounce per year guidance. I’d love see them move up to a $1 Billion market cap over the next 2 years.

            Until then… cheers!

          • On November 27, 2019 at 12:27 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Cheers senor (not senior 😉)

          • On November 27, 2019 at 3:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ole’ !

        • On November 29, 2019 at 3:24 am,
          buzz says:

          Thanks for the MXSG update. I’ve scooped up shares down here too. Massive volume days

          • On November 29, 2019 at 8:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The upside opportunity seemed more robust at 1/3 of a penny than the downside. Heck we’re already up to a 1/2 a penny per share now. 🙂

  11. On November 27, 2019 at 10:29 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Like Jag not meeting past production guidance and getting sold off based on past and maybe present shortfalls rather than looking forward, I think USA could be added to that last

    • On November 27, 2019 at 10:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Wolfster. I remember when JAG was $6 stock in the last cycle. I was in it heavy in 2010 and 2011 and overstayed my welcome in 2012, so it is seared into my investing memory. I watched and waited for it come out of credit restructuring and figured it was gone for good. However, when they emerged with all their mines and properties I started following more closely waiting for a chance to pounce on the re-rating.

      There have been a few good trades in JAG, but is still undervalued compared to peer producers that are doing 80,000 – 100,000 ounces per year. Last year when that fund sold out of their position it really tanked and didn’t recover back to where it was before that, but things have been gradually improving over time. JAG should surprise folks in 2020.

      As for USA – yes agreed. I remember when folks hated Scorpio Mining and then doubted the merger with US Silver and Gold to form Amercias Silver would amount to much. Then in early 2016 to that summer it took off like a scalded cat for a 9 bagger. Even after that I still felt it is nowhere close to where it should be based on the assets they had in the ground, and it has steadily crept higher and held onto gains in a tough market, but now with their new Gold mine Relief Canyon in Nevade, optimized Silver mining operations in Mexico, and the large cash injection from Eric Sprott in Idaho, they are set to be valued much higher than where they’ve been stuck the last few years.

      Good examples Wolfster.

      • On November 27, 2019 at 11:35 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Another company that is mid-turnaround that hardly anyone is discussing on other forums is (SGN) Scorpio Gold. They got a new lease on life this year but you wouldn’t know it as the shareprice continues to slide. By next year at this time I expect it to have a bigger following and more investor interest.