Allison Ostrander - Market and Induvidual Stock Comments – Thu 19 Dec, 2019

The FedEx/Amazon News And How To Trade It, Plus Targets For The S&P

Allison Ostrander, Director of Risk Tolerance at Simpler Trading kicks off today with comments on the big down day for FedEx shares on the back of Amazon advising its sellers to avoid using the company for holiday shipments. We also look at the overall health of the US markets for 2020. Politics plays a roll but so does market liquidity.

Click here to follow along with what Allison is trading over at Simpler Trading.

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Comments:
  1. On December 19, 2019 at 6:55 am,
    Blue says:

    Buying opportunity?
    BBB 0.14-0,145 cad

    • On December 19, 2019 at 7:52 am,
      Miklo says:

      Just like I thought. I said to Matthew that there was a risk it would reach 0,16 and that I would buy there.

      Now I’m thinking it’s on its way to 0,10 in this uncertain environment to build a basingpattern.

      Paging Matt!! :))

      • On December 19, 2019 at 2:27 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        I was watching your conversation and thought it was going lower. Thanks for alerting me to it. It should bottom the next 2 weeks and I’ll be a buyer soon.

        • On December 19, 2019 at 3:05 pm,
          Blue says:

          If it does I will be a buyer too👍

        • On December 19, 2019 at 3:05 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I said two days ago that one or two semi large sellers could make .14-.15 happen easily.
          Today’s volume was 5.5 times the norm and the VWAP was .155 — right in the middle of the day’s .14 to .17 range.

    • On December 19, 2019 at 8:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      Guys, it has now retraced the entire move that began on the day of this press release:
      http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-drills-554-70m-of-1-97-g-t-aueq-including-135-96m-of-1-35-g-t-au-0-31-cu-133-62-g-t-ag-or-5-00-g-t-aueq-including-6m-of-3-56-cu-3-37-g-t-au-257-77-g-t-ag-at-its-thorn-project/

      If you’re bullish silver, it’s a strong buy in my book. Of course it CAN go lower but it’s a good sign that volume is three times the daily average for the last 90 days and there’s still several hours left.

      • On December 19, 2019 at 8:52 am,
        Blue says:

        News:

        Brixton Metals Discovers Porphyry Style Mineralization at the Camp Creek Copper Corridor and Drills 230.82m of 0.27% CuEq at its Thorn Project

      • On December 19, 2019 at 9:39 am,
        Matthew says:

        The VWAP for BBB is .1538 so far and my average price for today is just slightly above that.

        • On December 19, 2019 at 12:15 pm,
          Charles says:

          I bought another slug this morning. Looks like a pretty good decision so far.

          • On December 19, 2019 at 12:45 pm,
            Miklo says:

            Good for you! I should have bought more. I didn´t see that reversal coming.
            I hope we see new highs.

            Cheers!

          • On December 19, 2019 at 2:53 pm,
            Charles says:

            We’ll see if it sticks Miklo! Could be some additional vol tomorrow with op expiration. Good luck and Cheers back at you Miklo!

      • On December 19, 2019 at 10:45 am,
        b says:

        Alot of my shares are down today, and gold has moved up.
        That just indicates to me that there are not alot of people in the jr mining space yet.

        Share price up down a few % points, floating around as they have been, if PMs are going to move up, shares are a buy anywhere around here.

        Course if Dent is right were all toast. lol

        • On December 19, 2019 at 11:38 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, the miners have been a bit disjointed from the daily price of gold, but both have been generally trending higher the last few weeks.

          Dent’s credibility is what is toast 😉 🤫

          • On December 19, 2019 at 3:02 pm,
            Miklo says:

            Exc, may I ask what your largest holdings are?

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:18 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Miklo – Sure. My biggest holdings are mostly in the Producers (Mid-tier down the small and even the distressed producers). I have a fair bit of more advanced developers that I see as good projects to move towards production and/or that may eventually get acquired by Producers, and do sprinkle in some explorers in each sector for some upside torque.

            Most of my focus at present is in Gold & Silver companies, but I do have some Base Metals, PGM, Uranium, Lithium, and a few royalty companies in the portfolio as well.

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            These are my current Silver mining stock holdings (always subject to change of course):

            > Silver Producers:

            First Majestic Silver
            Silvercorp Metals
            Americas Silver Corp
            Endeavour Silver
            Avino Silver & Gold Mines
            Excellon Resources
            Impact Silver Corp
            Santacruz Silver

            > Silver Developers:

            Bayhorse Silver
            Alexco Resource Corp
            Aurcana Corp
            Kootenay Silver Inc
            Discovery Metals Corp
            AbraPlata Resource Corp

            > Silver Explorers

            Metallic Minerals
            Dolly Varden Silver
            Defiance Silver
            Orex Minerals Inc

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:25 am,
            Excelsior says:

            There are Zinc companies I hold like Cantex or Tinka or Trevali that also have some Silver exposure too, or Gold companies like Brixton or Mandalay that have significant Silver exposure as well, but I have them categorized in other areas for their primary focus.

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            For Gold companies, I change out my holdings more often and am spread over more companies than in the Silver sector, so I’ve built my own ETF of sorts, but it is strongly skewed to the Producers and the largest positions are in the Mid-tiers and decreasing in weight as it comes down the food chain into the developers and explorers.

            > Gold Producers:

            Resolute Mining
            Equinox Gold
            Argonaut Gold
            K92 Mining
            Roxgold Inc
            Jaguar Mining
            Alio Gold
            Mandalay Resources
            Northern Vertex
            Hummingbird Resources
            Blackham Resources
            Bonterra Resources
            Harte Gold
            Anaconda Gold
            Inca One Gold
            Mexus Gold

            > Gold Developers

            Minera Alamos
            Mako Mining
            Pure Gold Mining
            Orezone Gold
            Sabina Gold and Silver
            West Kirkland Mining
            Falco Resources
            Treasury Metals
            Scorpio Gold
            Orefinders

            > Gold Explorers:

            Lion One Metals
            Brixton Metals
            Sarama Resources
            Osprey Gold
            Northern Shield

            > Gold Royalty Cos:

            Maverix Metals
            Golden Valley Mines
            Sailfish Royalty

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:59 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Again, there are some base metals companies I hold with some Gold exposure as well like Regulus Resources (Copper with Gold), Balmoral (was more Nickel, but I guess the interest in 2019 has shifted them much more to the Gold story), SolGold (Copper w/ Gold).

            Also Americas Gold & Silver has much more Gold exposure now due to their acquisition of Pershing Gold and their Relief Canyon project moving into production this year.

          • On December 20, 2019 at 4:44 am,
            Miklo says:

            Wow, are there any companies left in the sector you don´t own? :)) You make Sprott look like an amateur.

            Thats an impressive list. I wish you the best of luck!

          • On December 20, 2019 at 1:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! Thanks Miklo, but my position sizes are much smaller than Sprott’s are. 🙂

      • On December 19, 2019 at 11:26 am,
        Excelsior says:

        BBB Brixton is more of a play on Gold now than Silver as they’re most focused on Thorn & Atlin. They still have Langis and Hog Heaven but aren’t doing much with them, and are talking about optioning them to other companies.

        • On December 19, 2019 at 12:15 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I have to disagree since Thorn and Atlin have less “in the bag” than Hog Heaven (which is still in focus for 2020 along with the gold projects). The 50 million ounces of silver at Hog Heaven will add more to the share price as silver climbs than will the potential of the gold projects as gold climbs.
          http://brixtonmetals.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/BBB-November-2019-v2.pdf

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:03 am,
            Excelsior says:

            There are definitely some good ounces in the ground there, and yes those pounds in the ground will grow in value over time as Silver ratchets higher, but when the fickel marketplace looks at the newsflow from Brixton, or their self-admitted company focus, it has been on their Gold properties and exploration activities in 2019 and moving into 2020, not so much on Hog Heaven or Langis.

            Brixton did mention earlier in the year that while they are as focused on their Silver properties at present, that they would like to option them out to other companies to explore and that may move the markets some. My only point was that in 2016 they were far more focused on their Silver/Cobalt exploration than they are now and it won’t be as responsive to Silver prices now as it was then. They’ve responded much more to drilling news for gold.

            Regardless the PMs will move higher in tandem, and will help gold and silver companies alike, but there are other companies more geared to leverage in Silver as their primary focus.

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:04 am,
            Excelsior says:

            correction: “while they are (not) as focused on their silver properties…..

          • On December 20, 2019 at 2:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            In their new presentation it does look like they are going to do some confirmation drilling on Hog Heaven, but it doesn’t mention any work on Langis, which is what created the most interest in their Silver/Cobalt exposure a few years back (which is a shame as that property still looks like one of the most interesting ones).

            In addition, typically drilling which is infill and produces more results where deposits are already know like Hog Heaven, but really on any development project, don’t seem to get the market response that new blind discoveries or new greenfield discoveries get, but I’m wishing the Brixton team well, and I’ve been a shareholder since early 2016 and am always more animated by Silver exposure than almost any other commodity.

            The critique on Hog Heaven has been the number of Silver projects that remain opposed by community and lengthy permitting in Montana (which Coeur an prior companies have had challenges with for some time). Ironically, the Palladium/Platinum mine Stillwater is a standout in Montana though, and I hold (PGE) Group Ten metals exploring right next to their mine, so that area doesn’t seem to get the same pushback.

            It would be nice to see some of the silver projects in Montana come back to life this sector and if Coeur can get some of the delayed and stranded projects moving again, then this would be a big boon for Brixton’s Hog Heaven as well.

          • On December 20, 2019 at 6:57 am,
            Matthew says:

            All that may be but it’s those silver ounces in the ground that make it move the way it does with the silver price. Whether they’re focusing on the property or optioning it, it’s still their most significant asset. The share price quadrupled between May and August primarily because of those ounces and it consistently tracks silver very closely because silver price swings translate to big swings in the value of the asset. Those swings are large for such a small company.
            If we thought that silver was going to do nothing, then the gold exploration properties would be the only reason to own it.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63083524168

          • On December 20, 2019 at 7:14 am,
            Matthew says:

            BBB bottomed with the silver stocks, 37 weeks after the gold stocks bottomed:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47500562058

          • On December 20, 2019 at 1:39 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Those are good points Matthew, and very encouraging to see. I agree that if Silver were to stay flat (which be both know is not likely) then the Gold exploration would be the drivers, and I still believe they are key drivers, as some of the increase it had was on the back on some exploration work, but it is nice to see it track with the Silver price as well. I agree that the ounces they have locked in the vault of the earth will only get more valuable, and that is an encouraging thought for sure.

            Cheers!

          • On December 20, 2019 at 1:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Bottom line, it’s got a lot going for it at the current price as long as we aren’t wrong about the metals.
            Cheers Ex!

          • On December 20, 2019 at 3:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed!

  2. On December 19, 2019 at 8:28 am,
    cfs says:

    Kirkland Lake aims to produce 950,000 to 1M oz in 2020

    2019-12-18 18:36 ET – News Release
    Mr. Tony Makuch reports
    KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD TARGETS CONTINUED STRONG OPERATING RESULTS IN 2020, COMMENCING THREE NEW PROJECTS TO DRIVE PRODUCTION GROWTH

    Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. has released its full-year guidance for 2020, which includes continued strong operating and financial results, with consolidated production targeted at 950,000 to one million ounces and operating cash costs per ounce sold and all-in sustaining costs per ounce sold expected to average $300 to $330 and $570 to $630, respectively. The company will also continue to invest aggressively in growth, including commencing work on development ramps aimed at establishing two new mining operations, Robbin’s Hill at Fosterville and the previously identified high-grade zones near surface along the amalgamated break at Macassa. The company will also continue advanced exploration work in the Northern Territory, a potential third new source of future production. The company expects to produce 100,000 to 120,000 ounces in the Northern Territory in 2020, which is not included in the company’s 2020 guidance pending the resumption of commercial operations. All dollar amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

    I HAVE JUST ONE QUESTION TO ASK ?

    WHY PRODUCE CLOSE TO 1 MILLION OUNCES ?

    When will miners understand that it is their production that is allowing manipulation to suppress prices. Mining would be so much more profitable IF prices were higher.
    There is nothing wrong with exploring ad finding more metal; but it goes against their true interests for miners to produce and put metal on the market, before the manipulators are destroyed.
    In silver especially it would only take a few billion dollars worth of silver to end manipulation.

    • On December 19, 2019 at 11:07 am,
      Miklo says:

      For the love of God, DO NOT bring that weasel scammers name in this fine forum.
      That man is a proven liar, deceiver and rotten to the core. He Always announced “The Trade of the century” to his brainwashed followers so that he could dump the stock. He, the Kettels and that ultraweasel Rick Rule are all of the same: organized Pump&Dumpers!
      Read SH if you want to find out Moore.
      His latest P&D was Lucara. Look where its at now…

      • On December 19, 2019 at 11:55 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Some of the research that comes from Katusa’s team is ok, like that piece posted above, but in general he is more of a warrant weasel 🦡 (even though he fancies himself as an alligator🐊).

        He’s had a ton of pump n dumps though where he pat’s himself on the back for selling at a gain (after dumping shares and holding warrants into his marketing hype) to the greater fools, his followers like Nothern Dynasty, Black Sea, Trek, Lucara, etc…

        He did well with Alterra, but I attribute all of that to Ross Beaty’s leadership, and not Katusa’s amazing stock picking ability. Same thing with Equinox the last two years… it is all because of the team Beaty consolidated, and nobody needed a newsletter pump to know it was going to be a winner.

        • On December 19, 2019 at 12:41 pm,
          Miklo says:

          CanAlaska Uranium was also a textbook P&D. Please look that up.
          I bought it but made it out with a small profit. Other shareholders were massacred.

          I have to emphesize Rick Rules disgusting behaviour. I recall an interview when he told the world that “If you think people in the mining sector are ´good guys´ then you must rethink” or something BS like that. In that interview he was supoer-bullish on the metals and the miners. However, a couple of weeks later people found out that while he was pumping the sector he had quietly sold of a large portion of his holdings. That man is a charlatan.

          • On December 19, 2019 at 8:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Well, I learned a lot listening to Rick Rule on good attributes of mining companies and what things raise red flags, so that has been instructive and valuable. I also enjoy the Rick Rule-ism’s and some of his market adages. Lastly I kind of find him funny and entertaining. As for milking the warrants, yes he does. In addition this allows him to dump under the promotion blitz the PP shares and then keep the warrants as his longer term payment. Smart strategy, and he is the one funding those distressed companies in a tough market and can demand those termsx so good on him. Yes it does rub many the wrong way though.

          • On December 19, 2019 at 8:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As for CanAlaska as a uranium company I liked it initially for their exploration potential, then they went more prospect generator, but then they got off in the weeds with diamonds and Kimberlites and split their focus which really hurt their share price and market perception. They may still have a big discovery on 1 or 2 of their properties at one poiny, but there are other uranium companies I’d rather around and do own 1st.

  3. On December 19, 2019 at 8:39 am,
    cfs says:

    “The dollar is going down and it’s not a pretty picture…

    “It’s not being sustained by proper policy and proper thinking. [Rejecting cash for gold] was an opportunity to show people what’s happening with the dollar…” D.J.Trump.

  4. On December 19, 2019 at 9:50 am,
    b says:

    “…………. If you don’t find it one of the most valuable tools you have ever been handed after you use it for some time, write me and I will patiently listen to you whine and I will pat your back for you.”

    Dec 19 DSI Says Palladium Approaching a Sell, and DSI Is on Sale Bob Moriarty SWR

    First thing I thought was “whataprick” lol and got a good laff.

  5. On December 19, 2019 at 9:51 am,
    b says: