Addressing the upside in early 2020 for gold and silver
Doc joins me for what has to be one of his more bullish calls for gold and silver into 2020. We also touch on the GDX chart and a couple stocks that Doc likes the most right now.
Marco, as far as fundamentals are concerned and for an indepth analysis, EX would be a person to listen to. Their fundamentals look pretty good as regards their drill results. The share count may be a little higher then I would like at this stage of development and it doesn’t help that their mines are in the Yukon. They have road accessibility. They have cash in the bank but might have to go back to the market again. Their debt is not huge. The technicals seem to show there will still be pressure on their shares for the first quarter of next year but then they should bottom in price so you might be a little patient on this stock yet to take a position. I hope this helps.
Thank you very much Doc, I really appreciated your comment.
Marco – Doc just summed things up well.
I went back added some additional comments on the Chris Temple blog at the bottom and came to similar conclusions that Doc did above. At first I thought they were more remote, but after reviewing their updated corporate presentation I saw that they had road access to their property with is a big help in the more remote Yukon province. I didn’t realize they had around 5 million gold equivalent ounces (once the nice Copper credits are factored in). Also they’ve had some longer lower grade intercepts, but also some really high grade but narrow gold intercepts, so it makes for a mixed bag, but they are further along in advancing that deposit than I realized, and see why some newsletters got animated about it in the summer.
Once they fill up the warchest again for next year’s drilling program it may be a good one to bottom fish. Also with Newmont as strategic stakeholders, it is easy to see where they may schoop them up at one point, so they make a good takeover target in that sense.
Marco you definitely got me watching TIG a bit closer for 2020. Much appreciated!
schoop = scoop
Very useful information Excelsior, for sure Triumph is a lagger and IF this gold rally will continue into the new year it could be an interesting buy.
Marco, I’ll try and remember to keep this stock on my radar and will let you know when I believe it’s close to its’ bottom. You might remind me periodically to look at the chart of this one.
Thabk you Doc, very kind from you.
I just posted the following where you first asked the question:
Marco, I think the weakness is primarily due to the company’s working capital (cash and cash equivalents) position. At the end of the last quarter, management stated that the company had enough capital to fund its overhead through December 31, 2019 (tomorrow) and that it will require additional financing.
This causes selling as investors want to avoid dilution but it might also cause selling (shorting) specifically to drive the price down so that those interested in the financing might get better terms.
So you might wait for the financing details before buying or buying more. If it is a big one, shares could dip further on the news and you can buy that dip with confidence.
Thank you Matthew , from all the answers I got on this stock I’ve understand that IF the upmove in gold stocks will continue , Triumph will be a lagger, but the company is a good one.
It really could bottom at any time considering its reluctance to plunge following the break of obvious support 3 weeks ago. In addition to the great sector-wide strength lately the stochastics and other oscillators also support the possibility that the shakeout might be near its end. But if it does manage to break the black fork support (.19 this week), it will probably be at .15 quickly…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIG.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p98092559528&a=710137228
Raising new money should not be any problem in this market.
Thats the first time in years that i have heard DOC. been so positive on gold & silver , & the miners…….For all you investers out there maybe its time for you all to get stuck in.
The last time he was so positive was just before gold crashed in early 2013!
Hi Irish; yes, this one does not appear to be a fake out move at all for PM stocks. I actually got positive about a week before gold broke higher this past year. There’s been a stealth bull market for SOME PM stocks since 2015 but we’re finally at the point where more stocks are going to benefit in my view. This thing will have its’ ups and downs but now is not the time to be shaken out. This is now an investors bull market and those that are patient will benefit immensely in the end.
PART 1 – Golden Secrets & The REAL Reason for the Federal Reserve! (Bix Weir)
If this is true gold is way overvalued.
Dent could be right, $700 is on the way.
b….Bix is a crypto salesman..( he does not want people buying gold , something you can hold in your hand )….He wants people do buy digets..something that could vanish in the blink of an eye.
Irish, what happened to our Buddy, he must be in Korelin jail having a few too many margaritas. Maybe we should get a posse’ together in time to bust him out for New Years. DT
Hi DT…I too was concerned about Jerry , so i sent him an email some weeks ago,he is fine, just taking some time out…..Now were is Ebolan ?
b, I sense you like stirring the pot! LOL! DT
Stirred but not shaken.
There may be gold in the environs of the Grand Canyon, but Bix is a bit extreme in suggesting Billions of ounces.
Even if the New York Times had an article in 1912 stating “billions” of ounces of gold were there, do you really believe it is possible to accurately estimate the amount in the ground without drilling and properly surveying ?
I’m prepared to believe there are millions of ounces there, even tens of millions, but really, “billions” just because a reporter said so. Prove it !
It’s far more likely that there is a billion oz of gold in the Pilbara than in the Grand Canyon. Ask Quinton.
I’m pretty animated by the potential tens of millions of ounces of Gold that Quinton is working on with (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Metals in Fiji.
Me too Excelsior, I bought my Lion One Metals at 0.26 cents! I bought this company on Mr. Berukoff’s reputation alone. Maybe he will sell it to the Chinese down the road for huge money!
Me too Excelsior, I bought my shares of Lion One Metals at 0.26 cents a long time ago. I bought this company on Mr. Berukoff’s reputation alone. Maybe one day down the road he will sell the company to the Chinese for big money.
Great cost basis BigChris!
I’m looking forward to seeing how (LIO) can expand their resource through more exploration work in 2020. It could get really big.
Hoping you have a prosperous year ahead.
b…..Bix is a crypto salesman…..He does not want people buying gold.(which is something you can hold in your hand )….he wants people to own digets , which could vanish in the blink of an eye………………..Conman.
In after-hours trading:
Gold $1524
Silver 18.17
Unless there is an early morning smash down, it is looking like a great close for 2019 tomorrow for the Precious Metals.
2020 should be a positive year to really get some interest back in the PM sector from some new investors. When the miners post some great returns and get a bit more excitement brewing, this tiny sector will become headline-worthy once again to more generalist investors.
METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF
Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Dec 30th, 2019
“We believe this upside move in metals and miners is just getting started. We believe a move to levels just below $1650~1700 will be complete the initial upside price leg, then a second upside price leg will push prices upward towards $1800.”
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-prepare-for-an-early-2020-liftoff/
Looks like Da Boyz are in there shorting the metals like last Friday with the Dxy down .4%
It looks like an early morning sell-down again, but more so in Silver than in Gold.
Currently:
Gold $1521.20
Silver is down to $17.92
(down about 25 cents since overnight trading which held up in that $18.16-$18.18 range most of the night).
The XAU will go right through the the fork resistance that stopped it today if the metals hold up tomorrow…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p83328570118&a=644068629
The last few days have seen technically significant improvements for gold…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p63136911482&a=710188497
Speed line resistance at about 1528 tomorrow:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p12839817743&a=687508565
It would be very bad/bearish if gold were to go back below the following fork support currently around 1485:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p17583591947&a=680403506
Something tells me silver will be challenging its 2016 highs before April.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52132992097&a=501194637
Great HUI:GOLD chart from one of the better technicians over at ceo.ca:
@Ty – “$Gold stocks are set to significantly outperform the metal going forward. ”
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f0mco9-Screenshot%202019-12-31%20at%2012.15.35.png
The seedbed of the Fruit of The Spirit is PEACE. NONE OF THE OTHER 8 virtues can function without the Spirit of Peace, not Love, not Joy et al.
I do love you guys
Peace be with you Marty. Much love and happy New Year!
Here’s the dilemma. Two respected analysts with opposite viewpoints concerning commercial level of shorts on the COT. First is Avi with his view: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1577797838.php
Next is the view from Tom McClellan over at 321 Gold: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan123119.html
Personally, I’m going with the viewpoint stressed by Avi!
Hey Ex. I haven’t done a recent calculation on the rzz/gzz valuation discount but I have to imagine it’s way out of whack now with rzz bid $18.
Hi Wolfster – yes the valuation on GZZ is waaaaay low. I was actually considering adding some to that position soon, but feel there is more immediate upside in some of the smaller Silver and Gold producers and advanced developers.
To your point, GZZ owns 44.7% of RZZ which has a market cap of 224.43M so GZZ should be at $100.32M valuation just on that part of their asset base alone (but they are currently at $65.83M). That also values all their other projects at 0.
As for GZZ they also have projects going with Bonterra on Lac Barry which is going very well. BTR is getting all kinds of attention from Kirkland Lake KL and Eric Sprott because they have the mill in the windfall lake area next to Osisko (due to their acquisition of Metanor last year – which also makes Bonterra an active producer). This is also a huge plus for Golden Valley because they hold 519,480 shares in BTR Golden Valley Mines Mines now retains a 15% free carried interest in the Lac Barry Prospect and a 3% net smelter royalty (NSR).
Golden Valley Mines also holds an NSR on the Cheechoo Project, which ranges from 2.5% – 4.0% depending on commodity prices. The Cheechoo project is 100% owned by Sirios Resources.
Golden Valley Mines GZZ also retains a 1.5% Net Smelter Return on Centremaque that Alexandria Minerals has (being acquired by Osisko off-shoot O3 Mining).
Golden Valley also has a strategic investment of size in Val-d’Or Mining VZZ, as well as International Prospect Ventures IZZ and those 2 stakes are hard to value at this point, but they will build in value over time and those both have a ton of projects under their respective unbrellas.
Lastly, and quite importantly, GZZ Golden Valley Mines has a a 70:30 Joint Venture with Eldoardo Gold (formerly Ingetra Gold) in the group of nine (9) properties (8 gold and 1 copper-zinc-silver) located in the AGB (Québec and Ontario).
**Bottom Line: to only value GZZ based on its position in RZZ really leaves out a ton of projects, JVs, NSRs, and future royalty streams out of the picture, and would severely short changing the overall mix of assets.
Update. Parts of that post were taken from an older post, and at this point Alexandrai Minerals is gone and O3 Mining has that Centremaque project.
Also upon further reflection, considering that $RZZ only owns 55.3% of that big Net Smelter Royalty, then GZZ should even be valued even higher than just 44.7% of $RZZ’s value, but I’m being conservative and giving it’s value completely to RZZ. Really Golden Valley almost owns half of that NSR and should have 44.7% of the value attributed to the entire NSR.
Lastly when I got in that to 70:30 JV with EGO ELD Eldorado Gold it was worded poorly. The 9 properties (8 gold and 1 copper-zinc-silver) located in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt (in Québec and Ontario), used to be held by Integra Gold [not ingetra… sounds gross], until they were acquired by Eldorado. Anyways, a larger Mid-tier producer has those projects now, so I have much more confidence in some of them actually becoming mines one day and that part of their portfolio should grow in value over time.
When I got into that…. (not when I got in that to… lol!)
Yeah. That’s the big issue. It’s not getting valued right and other stuff(a lot of silver plays) are rocking. It’s moving at a snails pace lately but keeps hitting new 52 week highs as well
Yeah, I’m conflicted in putting more in it because it is moving at a snails pace, but over time more folks are waking up to the undervaluation of GZZ in comparison to RZZ, and many of the other JV and NSR partners with GZZ (like Bonterra, Sirios, O3 Mining, Eldorado Mining, and even VZZ and IZZ are getting more traction).
It is just a bit sluggish, especially considering how much metals prices have moved higher, but it does keep creeping higher. It’s a good place to dump ones profits.
I think it is a very safe bet for further share price appreciation especially while trading at a huge discount to what their 44.7% stake is in the big NSR, not to mention a 44.7% stake in the rest of RZZ’s assets.
Is someone reading our posts and buying gzz now????….it’s .52 now
Haha! I took our conversation to ceo.ca and have been having private dialogues with a few different investors ever since.
Other investors recognized the value shortly after trying to navigate their complex corporate presentation but just on the RZZ arbitrage alone.
https://www.goldenvalleymines.com/investors/presentations/GZZ-October2019_website.pdf
That GZZ presentation is from October is way out of date now because their value from the RZZ stake has gone up by another $20 million that is not reflected in their shareprice valuation, and Alexandria was acquired by O3 Mining, and the Eldorado 70:30 split wasn’t featured very well (the old Integra Resources assets).
For the first time since mid 2013, the Canadian dollar is going to close above the 233 week MA for two consecutive weeks:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60230343656&a=664740239
Kootenay Silver breakout:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p93217082975&a=686292383
Another KTN breakout:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p66931062658&a=684654235
Looking good Billy Ray!
Ha ha, nice. Eddie has hardly aged compared to Dan and JLC!
Agreed. Happy New Year!
Thanks, Happy New Year!
Here’s the daily version of the weekly chart posted above at 8:57…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p63187253508&a=684730971
Thanks for posting so much about it……I was sneaky and bought some in my tfsa with money that was earmarked for something else ….what the wife doesn’t know sometimes is…..😎
😎😂
There’s some resistance at about .37, 11-12% above the current level…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54884497364&a=608101183
There’s also resistance at .355 but I don’t think it will last considering the “fresh” weekly MACD and stochastic buys (among other things)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34317266272&a=670512427
My metals
portfolio, dollar weighted
SILV
GTBDF
AG
AXU
KL
SBGL
SVM
PVG
WDOFF
SGSVF
CDE
BCEKF DEC 31, 2019
Nice picks Marty. You’ll do well as the PM bull market continues to unfold. Cheers!
I’m a product of David Morgans Silver Guru letter in 1998. I stayed with BOB QUARTERMAIN when he left SSRI( a32 bagger) to head PVG. I think PVG will start paying a dividend this year now that they are/ will be virtually debt free.
It was a David Morgan DVD from a coin show I was at in 2008 that really got me thinking about the Precious Metals sector more seriously. I know many don’t like him and feel he’s lost all credibility, but I believe in giving credit where credit is due.
Another book that had a big impact on my thinking regarding getting more allocation to the PM sector in 2008 & 2009 was “Aftershock”.
Actually I just went over to my bookshelf – it was “America’s Bubble Economy” that I read during the 2008-2009 financial crisis (trying to understand what had happened), and then Wiedemer’s “Aftershock” came out a few years later. I also became a prepper big time back then in 08′-09′ with the 25 year shelf life foods, solar powered chargers, water storage & filtration, etc…
Silver bullion was my go to investment though until I sold it 2011 and had a big “Silver Party” with my friends.
I got really into the mining stocks in 2010 though, and didn’t really know what I was doing or how to understand their projects. At the time I was mostly in the producers.
Still, between those 2 years 2010 & 2011, they were so exciting that I was hooked on the volatility of the mining stocks. Prior to that I was only a very conservative value investor in Mutual funds and Large Cap stocks, so the daily pips, pops, and drops in the miners were a wild ride…. and they still are today.
I got a baptism of stupid while attending the 2006 Hard Assets Conf @Times Square, that early May timeframe wiped out 20 months of gains & about a 40%drop in my metals positions because I didn’t have any stops set. Well, I learned to protect myself ever since
Well that was a nice finish to the year. Got new 52 week highs in the PM plays and caught a nice tax loss bounce in the MSO pot stocks…….hope it continues in the new year…
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!!🥂🥂🥂
HAPPY NEW YEAR!! I hope we all live to be 200 years old, life is a lot of fun! DT
Yes – Happy New Year to the KE Report Crew:
Doc, what do you think about Triumph Gold,could it be a good buy at this price? I extend the question to everyone that listen to KER.