Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 30 Dec, 2019

Addressing the upside in early 2020 for gold and silver

Doc joins me for what has to be one of his more bullish calls for gold and silver into 2020. We also touch on the GDX chart and a couple stocks that Doc likes the most right now.

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Comments:
  1. On December 30, 2019 at 2:01 pm,
    marco says:

    Doc, what do you think about Triumph Gold,could it be a good buy at this price? I extend the question to everyone that listen to KER.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:07 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Marco, as far as fundamentals are concerned and for an indepth analysis, EX would be a person to listen to. Their fundamentals look pretty good as regards their drill results. The share count may be a little higher then I would like at this stage of development and it doesn’t help that their mines are in the Yukon. They have road accessibility. They have cash in the bank but might have to go back to the market again. Their debt is not huge. The technicals seem to show there will still be pressure on their shares for the first quarter of next year but then they should bottom in price so you might be a little patient on this stock yet to take a position. I hope this helps.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 3:13 pm,
        marco says:

        Thank you very much Doc, I really appreciated your comment.

        • On December 30, 2019 at 6:23 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Marco – Doc just summed things up well.

          I went back added some additional comments on the Chris Temple blog at the bottom and came to similar conclusions that Doc did above. At first I thought they were more remote, but after reviewing their updated corporate presentation I saw that they had road access to their property with is a big help in the more remote Yukon province. I didn’t realize they had around 5 million gold equivalent ounces (once the nice Copper credits are factored in). Also they’ve had some longer lower grade intercepts, but also some really high grade but narrow gold intercepts, so it makes for a mixed bag, but they are further along in advancing that deposit than I realized, and see why some newsletters got animated about it in the summer.

          Once they fill up the warchest again for next year’s drilling program it may be a good one to bottom fish. Also with Newmont as strategic stakeholders, it is easy to see where they may schoop them up at one point, so they make a good takeover target in that sense.

          Marco you definitely got me watching TIG a bit closer for 2020. Much appreciated!

          • On December 30, 2019 at 6:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            schoop = scoop

          • On December 31, 2019 at 5:16 am,
            marco says:

            Very useful information Excelsior, for sure Triumph is a lagger and IF this gold rally will continue into the new year it could be an interesting buy.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 3:15 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Marco, I’ll try and remember to keep this stock on my radar and will let you know when I believe it’s close to its’ bottom. You might remind me periodically to look at the chart of this one.

        • On December 30, 2019 at 3:22 pm,
          marco says:

          Thabk you Doc, very kind from you.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:11 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I just posted the following where you first asked the question:
      Marco, I think the weakness is primarily due to the company’s working capital (cash and cash equivalents) position. At the end of the last quarter, management stated that the company had enough capital to fund its overhead through December 31, 2019 (tomorrow) and that it will require additional financing.
      This causes selling as investors want to avoid dilution but it might also cause selling (shorting) specifically to drive the price down so that those interested in the financing might get better terms.
      So you might wait for the financing details before buying or buying more. If it is a big one, shares could dip further on the news and you can buy that dip with confidence.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 3:19 pm,
        marco says:

        Thank you Matthew , from all the answers I got on this stock I’ve understand that IF the upmove in gold stocks will continue , Triumph will be a lagger, but the company is a good one.

        • On December 30, 2019 at 3:46 pm,
          Matthew says:

          It really could bottom at any time considering its reluctance to plunge following the break of obvious support 3 weeks ago. In addition to the great sector-wide strength lately the stochastics and other oscillators also support the possibility that the shakeout might be near its end. But if it does manage to break the black fork support (.19 this week), it will probably be at .15 quickly…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIG.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p98092559528&a=710137228

          Raising new money should not be any problem in this market.

  2. On December 30, 2019 at 2:42 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Thats the first time in years that i have heard DOC. been so positive on gold & silver , & the miners…….For all you investers out there maybe its time for you all to get stuck in.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:08 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The last time he was so positive was just before gold crashed in early 2013!

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:11 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Hi Irish; yes, this one does not appear to be a fake out move at all for PM stocks. I actually got positive about a week before gold broke higher this past year. There’s been a stealth bull market for SOME PM stocks since 2015 but we’re finally at the point where more stocks are going to benefit in my view. This thing will have its’ ups and downs but now is not the time to be shaken out. This is now an investors bull market and those that are patient will benefit immensely in the end.

  3. On December 30, 2019 at 3:18 pm,
    b says:

    PART 1 – Golden Secrets & The REAL Reason for the Federal Reserve! (Bix Weir)

    https://youtu.be/FNSAurabA2U

    If this is true gold is way overvalued.

    Dent could be right, $700 is on the way.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 4:01 pm,
      irishtony says:

      b….Bix is a crypto salesman..( he does not want people buying gold , something you can hold in your hand )….He wants people do buy digets..something that could vanish in the blink of an eye.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 4:48 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Irish, what happened to our Buddy, he must be in Korelin jail having a few too many margaritas. Maybe we should get a posse’ together in time to bust him out for New Years. DT

        • On December 31, 2019 at 4:05 am,
          irishtony says:

          Hi DT…I too was concerned about Jerry , so i sent him an email some weeks ago,he is fine, just taking some time out…..Now were is Ebolan ?

    • On December 30, 2019 at 4:43 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      b, I sense you like stirring the pot! LOL! DT

      • On December 30, 2019 at 4:59 pm,
        b says:

        Stirred but not shaken.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 5:08 pm,
      cfs says:

      There may be gold in the environs of the Grand Canyon, but Bix is a bit extreme in suggesting Billions of ounces.
      Even if the New York Times had an article in 1912 stating “billions” of ounces of gold were there, do you really believe it is possible to accurately estimate the amount in the ground without drilling and properly surveying ?
      I’m prepared to believe there are millions of ounces there, even tens of millions, but really, “billions” just because a reporter said so. Prove it !

      • On December 31, 2019 at 6:32 am,
        bonzo barzini says:

        It’s far more likely that there is a billion oz of gold in the Pilbara than in the Grand Canyon. Ask Quinton.

        • On December 31, 2019 at 10:39 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m pretty animated by the potential tens of millions of ounces of Gold that Quinton is working on with (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Metals in Fiji.

          • On December 31, 2019 at 11:07 am,
            Big Chris says:

            Me too Excelsior, I bought my Lion One Metals at 0.26 cents! I bought this company on Mr. Berukoff’s reputation alone. Maybe he will sell it to the Chinese down the road for huge money!

          • On December 31, 2019 at 1:37 pm,
            BigChris says:

            Me too Excelsior, I bought my shares of Lion One Metals at 0.26 cents a long time ago. I bought this company on Mr. Berukoff’s reputation alone. Maybe one day down the road he will sell the company to the Chinese for big money.

          • On December 31, 2019 at 4:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Great cost basis BigChris!

            I’m looking forward to seeing how (LIO) can expand their resource through more exploration work in 2020. It could get really big.

            Hoping you have a prosperous year ahead.

  4. On December 30, 2019 at 3:55 pm,
    irishtony says:

    b…..Bix is a crypto salesman…..He does not want people buying gold.(which is something you can hold in your hand )….he wants people to own digets , which could vanish in the blink of an eye………………..Conman.

  5. On December 30, 2019 at 6:12 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    In after-hours trading:

    Gold $1524

    Silver 18.17

    Unless there is an early morning smash down, it is looking like a great close for 2019 tomorrow for the Precious Metals.

    2020 should be a positive year to really get some interest back in the PM sector from some new investors. When the miners post some great returns and get a bit more excitement brewing, this tiny sector will become headline-worthy once again to more generalist investors.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 6:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF

      Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Dec 30th, 2019

      “We believe this upside move in metals and miners is just getting started. We believe a move to levels just below $1650~1700 will be complete the initial upside price leg, then a second upside price leg will push prices upward towards $1800.”

      https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-prepare-for-an-early-2020-liftoff/

    • On December 31, 2019 at 5:33 am,
      Marty says:

      Looks like Da Boyz are in there shorting the metals like last Friday with the Dxy down .4%

      • On December 31, 2019 at 6:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        It looks like an early morning sell-down again, but more so in Silver than in Gold.

        Currently:

        Gold $1521.20

        Silver is down to $17.92
        (down about 25 cents since overnight trading which held up in that $18.16-$18.18 range most of the night).

  6. On December 30, 2019 at 8:06 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The XAU will go right through the the fork resistance that stopped it today if the metals hold up tomorrow…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p83328570118&a=644068629

  7. On December 30, 2019 at 8:30 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The last few days have seen technically significant improvements for gold…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p63136911482&a=710188497

  8. On December 30, 2019 at 9:15 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Something tells me silver will be challenging its 2016 highs before April.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52132992097&a=501194637

  9. On December 31, 2019 at 6:47 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Great HUI:GOLD chart from one of the better technicians over at ceo.ca:

    @Ty – “$Gold stocks are set to significantly outperform the metal going forward. ”

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f0mco9-Screenshot%202019-12-31%20at%2012.15.35.png

  10. On December 31, 2019 at 6:55 am,
    Marty says:

    The seedbed of the Fruit of The Spirit is PEACE. NONE OF THE OTHER 8 virtues can function without the Spirit of Peace, not Love, not Joy et al.
    I do love you guys

    • On December 31, 2019 at 7:10 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Peace be with you Marty. Much love and happy New Year!

  11. On December 31, 2019 at 7:43 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Here’s the dilemma. Two respected analysts with opposite viewpoints concerning commercial level of shorts on the COT. First is Avi with his view: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1577797838.php
    Next is the view from Tom McClellan over at 321 Gold: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan123119.html
    Personally, I’m going with the viewpoint stressed by Avi!

  12. On December 31, 2019 at 7:58 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Hey Ex. I haven’t done a recent calculation on the rzz/gzz valuation discount but I have to imagine it’s way out of whack now with rzz bid $18.

    • On December 31, 2019 at 8:42 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Wolfster – yes the valuation on GZZ is waaaaay low. I was actually considering adding some to that position soon, but feel there is more immediate upside in some of the smaller Silver and Gold producers and advanced developers.

      To your point, GZZ owns 44.7% of RZZ which has a market cap of 224.43M so GZZ should be at $100.32M valuation just on that part of their asset base alone (but they are currently at $65.83M). That also values all their other projects at 0.

      As for GZZ they also have projects going with Bonterra on Lac Barry which is going very well. BTR is getting all kinds of attention from Kirkland Lake KL and Eric Sprott because they have the mill in the windfall lake area next to Osisko (due to their acquisition of Metanor last year – which also makes Bonterra an active producer). This is also a huge plus for Golden Valley because they hold 519,480 shares in BTR Golden Valley Mines Mines now retains a 15% free carried interest in the Lac Barry Prospect and a 3% net smelter royalty (NSR).

      Golden Valley Mines also holds an NSR on the Cheechoo Project, which ranges from 2.5% – 4.0% depending on commodity prices. The Cheechoo project is 100% owned by Sirios Resources.

      Golden Valley Mines GZZ also retains a 1.5% Net Smelter Return on Centremaque that Alexandria Minerals has (being acquired by Osisko off-shoot O3 Mining).

      Golden Valley also has a strategic investment of size in Val-d’Or Mining VZZ, as well as International Prospect Ventures IZZ and those 2 stakes are hard to value at this point, but they will build in value over time and those both have a ton of projects under their respective unbrellas.

      Lastly, and quite importantly, GZZ Golden Valley Mines has a a 70:30 Joint Venture with Eldoardo Gold (formerly Ingetra Gold) in the group of nine (9) properties (8 gold and 1 copper-zinc-silver) located in the AGB (Québec and Ontario).

      **Bottom Line: to only value GZZ based on its position in RZZ really leaves out a ton of projects, JVs, NSRs, and future royalty streams out of the picture, and would severely short changing the overall mix of assets.

      • On December 31, 2019 at 9:02 am,
        Excelsior says:
      • On December 31, 2019 at 9:19 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Update. Parts of that post were taken from an older post, and at this point Alexandrai Minerals is gone and O3 Mining has that Centremaque project.

        Also upon further reflection, considering that $RZZ only owns 55.3% of that big Net Smelter Royalty, then GZZ should even be valued even higher than just 44.7% of $RZZ’s value, but I’m being conservative and giving it’s value completely to RZZ. Really Golden Valley almost owns half of that NSR and should have 44.7% of the value attributed to the entire NSR.

        Lastly when I got in that to 70:30 JV with EGO ELD Eldorado Gold it was worded poorly. The 9 properties (8 gold and 1 copper-zinc-silver) located in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt (in Québec and Ontario), used to be held by Integra Gold [not ingetra… sounds gross], until they were acquired by Eldorado. Anyways, a larger Mid-tier producer has those projects now, so I have much more confidence in some of them actually becoming mines one day and that part of their portfolio should grow in value over time.

        • On December 31, 2019 at 9:20 am,
          Excelsior says:

          When I got into that…. (not when I got in that to… lol!)

      • On December 31, 2019 at 9:20 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Yeah. That’s the big issue. It’s not getting valued right and other stuff(a lot of silver plays) are rocking. It’s moving at a snails pace lately but keeps hitting new 52 week highs as well

        • On December 31, 2019 at 9:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, I’m conflicted in putting more in it because it is moving at a snails pace, but over time more folks are waking up to the undervaluation of GZZ in comparison to RZZ, and many of the other JV and NSR partners with GZZ (like Bonterra, Sirios, O3 Mining, Eldorado Mining, and even VZZ and IZZ are getting more traction).

          It is just a bit sluggish, especially considering how much metals prices have moved higher, but it does keep creeping higher. It’s a good place to dump ones profits.

          I think it is a very safe bet for further share price appreciation especially while trading at a huge discount to what their 44.7% stake is in the big NSR, not to mention a 44.7% stake in the rest of RZZ’s assets.

          • On December 31, 2019 at 9:50 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Is someone reading our posts and buying gzz now????….it’s .52 now

          • On December 31, 2019 at 10:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! I took our conversation to ceo.ca and have been having private dialogues with a few different investors ever since.

            https://ceo.ca/gzz?ad3d088fe945

          • On December 31, 2019 at 10:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Other investors recognized the value shortly after trying to navigate their complex corporate presentation but just on the RZZ arbitrage alone.

            https://www.goldenvalleymines.com/investors/presentations/GZZ-October2019_website.pdf

          • On December 31, 2019 at 10:35 am,
            Excelsior says:

            That GZZ presentation is from October is way out of date now because their value from the RZZ stake has gone up by another $20 million that is not reflected in their shareprice valuation, and Alexandria was acquired by O3 Mining, and the Eldorado 70:30 split wasn’t featured very well (the old Integra Resources assets).

  13. On December 31, 2019 at 8:53 am,
    Matthew says:

    For the first time since mid 2013, the Canadian dollar is going to close above the 233 week MA for two consecutive weeks:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60230343656&a=664740239

  14. On December 31, 2019 at 8:56 am,
    Matthew says:
  15. On December 31, 2019 at 10:31 am,
    Marty says:

    My metals
    portfolio, dollar weighted
    SILV
    GTBDF
    AG
    AXU
    KL
    SBGL
    SVM
    PVG
    WDOFF
    SGSVF
    CDE
    BCEKF DEC 31, 2019

    • On December 31, 2019 at 10:36 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice picks Marty. You’ll do well as the PM bull market continues to unfold. Cheers!

  16. On December 31, 2019 at 10:42 am,
    Marty says:

    I’m a product of David Morgans Silver Guru letter in 1998. I stayed with BOB QUARTERMAIN when he left SSRI( a32 bagger) to head PVG. I think PVG will start paying a dividend this year now that they are/ will be virtually debt free.

    • On December 31, 2019 at 11:51 am,
      Excelsior says:

      It was a David Morgan DVD from a coin show I was at in 2008 that really got me thinking about the Precious Metals sector more seriously. I know many don’t like him and feel he’s lost all credibility, but I believe in giving credit where credit is due.

      Another book that had a big impact on my thinking regarding getting more allocation to the PM sector in 2008 & 2009 was “Aftershock”.

      • On December 31, 2019 at 12:03 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Actually I just went over to my bookshelf – it was “America’s Bubble Economy” that I read during the 2008-2009 financial crisis (trying to understand what had happened), and then Wiedemer’s “Aftershock” came out a few years later. I also became a prepper big time back then in 08′-09′ with the 25 year shelf life foods, solar powered chargers, water storage & filtration, etc…
        Silver bullion was my go to investment though until I sold it 2011 and had a big “Silver Party” with my friends.

        I got really into the mining stocks in 2010 though, and didn’t really know what I was doing or how to understand their projects. At the time I was mostly in the producers.

        Still, between those 2 years 2010 & 2011, they were so exciting that I was hooked on the volatility of the mining stocks. Prior to that I was only a very conservative value investor in Mutual funds and Large Cap stocks, so the daily pips, pops, and drops in the miners were a wild ride…. and they still are today.

  17. On December 31, 2019 at 12:55 pm,
    Marty says:

    I got a baptism of stupid while attending the 2006 Hard Assets Conf @Times Square, that early May timeframe wiped out 20 months of gains & about a 40%drop in my metals positions because I didn’t have any stops set. Well, I learned to protect myself ever since

  18. On December 31, 2019 at 2:13 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    Well that was a nice finish to the year. Got new 52 week highs in the PM plays and caught a nice tax loss bounce in the MSO pot stocks…….hope it continues in the new year…

    HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!!🥂🥂🥂

  19. On December 31, 2019 at 2:20 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    HAPPY NEW YEAR!! I hope we all live to be 200 years old, life is a lot of fun! DT

  20. On December 31, 2019 at 4:21 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Yes – Happy New Year to the KE Report Crew:

    https://media.giphy.com/media/aqt7AvEV2ieIM/giphy.gif