Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 30 Dec, 2019

Here’s what the moves in gold and the USD are foretelling about 2020

The moves in gold (higher) and the USD (lower) over the past broken up trading week could be shedding a light on what we could see develop in 2020. Chris Temple joins me to outline what traders are predicting for next year and what has to actually happen for the moves in both gold and the US dollar to continue and break key levels.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with what he is seeing develop in a wide range of markets.

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Comments:
  1. On December 30, 2019 at 9:28 am,
    cfs says:

    I respectfully disagree with, Mr. Temple, from a fundamental point of view.
    a. Given the amount of money injected into the world economy, with a delay there ultimately has to be more inflation.
    b. As long as the US maintains the best economy, money has to flow into the US capital markets, stocks and property.
    c. Re-election of Trump is dependent on the US economy being good and not collapsing.

    Against all of the above is the perception that the US stock market may be too high.
    Something repeated often enough, whether it is the truth or a lie, becomes accepted as the “truth”.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 9:42 am,
      cfs says:
    • On December 31, 2019 at 6:49 am,
      Temple says:

      CFS, will have much more to write/say on this via a few special issues of my newsletter over the coming few weeks. But for present purposes, I’ll likewise respectfully suggest that you have had a LOT of “inflation” right in front of you already (in part–and along with ANY other examples of asset markets–an S&P 500 nearly five times higher today than at the 2009 bottom.)

      Wages have been going up a bit faster of late…and some consumer prices, too. But by and large, LONG before any real traction is gained across the board again in that traditional cost-push inflation, DEFLATION will again hit asset prices, dragging down everything once more.

  2. On December 30, 2019 at 9:29 am,
    Matthew says:

    If gold moves up significantly from here it is going to shock a lot COT followers.
    The miners look much more appealing than either gold or conventional stocks.
    GDX vs DIA:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ADIA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p34992565889&a=699627862

  3. On December 30, 2019 at 9:31 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT bounced off of very important speed line resistance this morning (black):
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=p17122412919&a=642296042

    • On December 30, 2019 at 10:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      IPT:SCZ looks like it has hit interesting resistance as well.

      http://schrts.co/kBstRnVx

      • On December 30, 2019 at 11:16 am,
        David GLanzer says:

        I finally got in the green with my IPT. Had sold two times before for losses, but the recent run up covered those losses, so I am good…except for that resistance word.

        • On December 30, 2019 at 12:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Congrats David. It always feels good to be back in the green on any position.

          IPT struggled in the 2nd half of 2018 and was lackluster in the first half of 2019, really made some progress in the summer breakout, but then gave most of those gains back for a return trip. However the recent breakout in December has been much stronger and Impact looks poised to head much higher in 2020.

          http://schrts.co/uqVcyJnW

          • On December 30, 2019 at 12:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Sorry that was the wrong chart. Here’s IPT’s chart showing the strength in the December move.

            http://schrts.co/JDBwzFWg

    • On December 30, 2019 at 11:41 am,
      Miklo says:

      I bought more BBB at 0,22. I didn´t buy at 0,16-0,20 but at 0,22…

      Well well, lets hope the Power is strong in this one and fo a KTN-move upwards

  4. On December 30, 2019 at 9:36 am,
    Matthew says:

    This XAU:DIA chart says sell the stock market and buy gold and silver miners:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3ADIA&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p02148280196&a=707626462

  5. On December 30, 2019 at 10:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    A Short Update on Irving (IRV), Lion One (LIO), and Novo (NVO)

    Bob Moriarty – 321gold – (12/29/2019)

    https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/12/29/a-short-update-on-irving-lion-one-and-novo.html

    • On December 30, 2019 at 10:59 am,
      b says:

      irving & lion one moved up, my guess is bobs article had sumtin to do with that.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 11:05 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Lion One has been on a tear for months because they really may have a massive discovery in the works in Fiji, and the well-respected Dr. Quinton Hennigh has given it a strong endorsement as the lead part of their technical team.

        But yes, Bob M. has a large following and his article as likely helped the cause with visibility.

        Check out pages 4 & 9 on the LIO Corporate Presentation to see how this deposit may grow to be like similar geological setting in the South Pacific.

        https://liononemetals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LIO-PPT-NOV-2019.pdf

  6. On December 30, 2019 at 10:16 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (EQX) Equinox Gold and (LMC) Leagold Mining Mail Joint Management Information Circular in Connection with Special Meetings to Approve Business Combination to Create a Premier Americas Gold Producer

    by @newswire on 30 Dec 2019

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/equinox-gold-and-leagold-mining-mail-joint-management

    • On December 30, 2019 at 10:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Here’s another mining merger but this time in the Nickel/Cobalt/PGM space:

      (NOB) Noble Shareholders Approve the Arrangement with Canada Nickel

      by @thenewswire on 30 Dec 2019

      https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/noble-shareholders-approve-the-arrangement-with-canada

    • On December 30, 2019 at 10:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      It really has been a stellar year in Equinox Gold. It’s amazing what happens when the market in confident in a management team that keeps their commitments and executes on their strategy.

      ________________________________________________

      @Goldfinger – “$10 handle for $EQX…what a finish to 2019 for Ross Beaty!”

      https://ceo.ca/index?12fe71e1c47d

      • On December 30, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        @JamesKwantes (editor of Resource Opportunities) – “The market is valuing $BTO’s 1M oz of annual production at > $5 billion.”

        “$EQX and $LMC slated to get there (organically) in 2021 & their combined MC is about $2 billion currently.”

        https://ceo.ca/index?a1c5a9206384

        • On December 30, 2019 at 12:55 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          What a beautiful looking EQX chart in 2019, especially for a larger producer. They still have plenty of room to the upside as they merge with LeaGold and increase their production over the next 2 years into a rising metals price. Solid execution.

          http://schrts.co/KRBIvXwC

          • On December 30, 2019 at 1:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            EQX is getting a bit overbought here on the RSI and Stochastics, but for good reason.

            This is a stock to accumulate on future dips for exposure to their rising production profile, and Equinox may need to rest a bit and pull back after such a nice surge higher.

  7. On December 30, 2019 at 10:22 am,
    Excelsior says:

    METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF

    Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Dec 30th, 2019

    “We believe this upside move in metals and miners is just getting started. We believe a move to levels just below $1650~1700 will be complete the initial upside price leg, then a second upside price leg will push prices upward towards $1800.”

    https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-prepare-for-an-early-2020-liftoff/

    • On December 30, 2019 at 10:39 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold extends end-of-year rally, set for best month since August

      Bloomberg News | December 30, 2019

      “Spot Gold advanced, heading for its best month since August, as the dollar weakened and funds plowed more money into exchange-traded funds backed by the metal.”

      “The euro gained for a fourth day as the dollar declined against all its Group-of-10 peers, bolstering the appeal of bullion as an alternative asset. ”

      The strong bullish momentum is “largely due to U.S. dollar weakness,” said Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte in Singapore. The Federal Reserve’s dovish monetary policy “has softened greenback prospects considerably while bolstering bullion’s appeal.”

      “A gauge of the greenback is set for the biggest quarterly loss since the first three months of 2018. ”

      https://www.mining.com/web/gold-extends-end-of-year-rally-set-for-best-month-since-august/

      • On December 30, 2019 at 10:42 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Silver Market Update

        Clive Maund – Sunday, December 29, 2019

        “While silver’s charts do not yet look as positive as gold’s, that is normal at this early stage in the cycle, when gold is favored over silver, which attracts more speculative interest as the bullmarket progresses. Nevertheless, as we can see on the latest 10-year chart for silver below, it is starting to look a lot better as it hauls itself up out of the 2nd low of the giant Double Bottom pattern shown. Gold’s advance and Summer breakout triggered a strong impulse wave in silver, which then reacted back to support above its rising 200-day moving average. Last week it turned higher to start its 2nd impulse wave, which, given the increasing risk of the dollar dropping hard, has a good chance of making a run at the resistance level shown. Technically, it is still within the base pattern until it succeeds in breaking above the resistance at and approaching its 2016 highs. Once it does the advance is likely to accelerate.”

        https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=67

        • On December 30, 2019 at 10:44 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold Market Update

          Clive Maunds – Sunday, December 29, 2019

          “There is a broad array of fundamental reasons for a bullmarket of unprecedented magnitude in gold, but by far the most important of them is the ongoing and accelerating destruction of currencies by Central Banks. They are responding to crushing debt burdens with money creation on a gargantuan scale, and we can expect them to maintain a low or negative interest rate environment and to pump money like crazy, since faced with a choice between a liquidity lockup and systemic implosion, and rampant money creation leading to hyperinflation, they are bound to follow the latter course because it is more gradual and buys them more time. While all Central Banks around the world are playing the same game, they will find it very hard to keep up with the Federal Reserve of the US which is ramping up money creation at a frenetic pace, the effect of which will be to collapse the dollar, which is already starting to break down – hence last week’s rally in gold and silver.”

          https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=68

  8. On December 30, 2019 at 10:55 am,
    Matthew says:
  9. On December 30, 2019 at 11:53 am,
    Matthew says:

    The bear market low for gold in 2015 happened at a huge Schiff pitchfork support:
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QodLtcVq/

  10. On December 30, 2019 at 12:10 pm,
    Charles says:

    ANX.TO looks to be in the intial stages of a breakout.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 12:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Charles. Things are looking more constructive for Anaconda.

      http://schrts.co/uqVcyJnW

    • On December 30, 2019 at 12:36 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Charles, thanks for the alert. I just took my first position in that stock. The key now is if takes out the upper BB of the weekly chart and breaks out there.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
        Charles says:

        Welcome aboard Doc! It will be great to get your thoughts as we move forward.

      • On December 30, 2019 at 1:58 pm,
        marco says:

        Doc ,what do you think of Triumph Gold, could it be a good buy at this price?

  11. On December 30, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
    marco says:

    Is there anyone who has information on the extreme weakness of Triumph gold?
    They were considered among the best gold stocks…..what’s happened? Could they still be a good buy? Thanx

    • On December 30, 2019 at 2:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Marco,

      I know Triumph has Newmont as a strategic investor (which is a good partner to have), and their stock got pumped hard back in the Summer & Fall by a few different newsletter writers and at mining conference as a potential “Drill Play” in the Yukon.

      Quite often the pure discovery explorers up north sell down a bit in the winter months as the freeze hits and the exploration comes to hault; so that may be part of the seasonal weakness. However, the selling looks more intense than that so maybe a larger investor or fund cashed out some shares in the last 2 months.

      TIG certainly isn’t very pricey at these levels, so if investors like it in the summer/fall and liked the last drill results, then this is a good area for bottom fishing while some of the explorers taking a break for winter are out of favor.

      Most of the Yukon explorers start to perk up more in the late winter to spring when the exploration season gets moving again.

      Good luck to you in your investing in 2020.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:05 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Marco, I think the weakness is primarily due to the company’s working capital (cash and cash equivalents) position. At the end of the last quarter, management stated that the company had enough capital to fund its overhead through December 31, 2019 (tomorrow) and that it will require additional financing.
      This causes selling as investors want to avoid dilution but it might also cause selling (shorting) specifically to drive the price down so that those interested in the financing might get better terms.
      So you might wait for the financing details before buying or buying more. If it is a big one, shares could dip further on the news and you can buy that dip with confidence.

  12. On December 30, 2019 at 2:38 pm,
    marco says:

    Thank you for your kind answer Excelsior.

    • On December 30, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Sure. Always glad to share ideas.

      Another resource you may want to review is the Triumph Gold room over at ceo.ca, because investors will hash out the good, the bad, and the ugly, or post thoughts on news, editorials, or analyst coverage. For example, someone posted recently an interesting piece from a newsletter writer that just pickeup of coverage of TIG, with their rationale. Worth a quick look.

      https://ceo.ca/tig

      There were a few other investors in there discussion the seasonal sell down for Yukon exploration drill plays in the winter. However, I saw someone post that they have about 5 million ounces of Gold so that sounds like a more advanced explorer developer and I didn’t realize that they had that many ounces on the books. The challenge with most of the Yukon is how remote some of these projects are, so they need to factor in some infrastructure into their financial studies.

      Cheers!

      • On December 30, 2019 at 4:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Marco – you got me curious about TIG so I did a bit more poking around on their website and reviewed their Corporate Presentation and I’m impressed. I didn’t realize some of the high grade gold hits they had intermixed with the longer lower grade intercepts, and they have a nice Copper credit on both their projects.

        >> I stand corrected about their site access as they are right of the Mt. Freegold Road (see page 7 of the presentation), so that is a big plus in the Yukon.

        https://www.triumphgoldcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/CorporatePresentation.pdf

        • On December 30, 2019 at 4:16 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m adding Triumph to my closer watch list for Gold explorers, but will wait to see if they do a financing soon as Matthew mentioned above, as they’ll need a way to fund their 2020 exploration season.

          All in all TIG is one I’m going to keep a closer eye on for next year.