Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Fri 3 Jan, 2020

Gold vs gold stocks update

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me for an update on the balance between gold and the gold stocks. The stock have been under performing recently and the moves today on the back of geopolitical actions further drive that home. We could be in for a short term correction or pause but the log term outlook remains very strong.

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Comments:
  1. On January 3, 2020 at 2:13 pm,
    buzz says:

    Looks like Gold Bugs starting to get back in Vogue

    • On January 3, 2020 at 2:32 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Buzz, this time I feel they will be correct.

      • On January 3, 2020 at 3:20 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        I won’t be taking any profits in gold, silver, or miners for a long time. Sit back and enjoy the ride ALL THE WAY TO THE EMERALD CITY. We’ve only just begun.

        • On January 3, 2020 at 7:20 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          BB, I agree. I know you like dividend bearing stocks. One I mentioned weeks ago was an oil transporter, NAT. It was about $2.00 and is now $5.00. It still has room to run. Another you might look at is the stodgy NOK. I feel it has further to fall since its’ dividend and yield is falling. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t move back down to its’ low in the past of $2.00.

        • On January 3, 2020 at 7:26 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Gold has been in a beautiful new uptrend for the last 5 quarters and has closed above the quarterly Bollinger Bands for each of the last 3 quarters. You’d have to go back to 2010 to find the last time that happened.
          Many have been very slow to recognize the strength in this market but luckily for them, gold has a long ways to go.
          The big breakout happened many months ago and the action since has been perfect…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=5&dy=0&id=p15869312766&a=672652216

  2. On January 3, 2020 at 2:21 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Today’s under performance in the gold stocks is due to the extended run up (6 days for GDM) and short term overbought readings. The geopolitical stuff was probably no more than a catalyst.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p76488588747

    • On January 3, 2020 at 3:17 pm,
      Bill says:

      A muted response of stocks today compared to the metal because it was already priced in I think :-/

  3. On January 3, 2020 at 3:04 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    My stocks moved up but that is because of Anaconda.

    • On January 3, 2020 at 3:40 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’m curious to see if Anaconda and the new team at Maritime will finally get both companies merged this year. It would make the combined company more solid in Newfoundland and Labrador, attract more investor interest, and both companies have assets and capabilities that compliment the other. Goldboro with Anaconda also gives them a killer project in Nova Scotia.

      I’ve made good money trading ANX, but have been adding to my position recently for the long game.

      • On January 3, 2020 at 7:10 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Purchased ANX.TO for first time on Monday. Nice run since.

        • On January 4, 2020 at 11:07 am,
          Fritz Bender says:

          My recent buys have been GoGold Resources. If you have not studied it, I strongly suggest you do. Thanks for all your work!

          • On January 4, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The worst thing about GOAU is its lack of trading liquidity but that should continue to improve as more people discover it. Bob Moriarty has no doubt helped it on that front with his write-ups.

          • On January 4, 2020 at 12:31 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Scratch that. I thought you were talking about the ETF by the same name.

          • On January 4, 2020 at 1:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (GGD) – It mostly produces Silver but also some gold from a tailings project, but is focused on a 2nd property for Silver exploration this year. It’s performed quite well in 2019.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 11:11 am,
        Fritz Bender says:

        I just love Quebec Atlantic, own Marathon, Galway, Anaconda. Do you like Maritime the company?

        • On January 4, 2020 at 12:08 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I like the Hammerdown asset that Maritime has and actually bought a position in them last year as an arbitrage play based on the offer that Anaconda made to take them over (which was quite generous at the time). Instead the old MAE management team was dreadful, and did a poison pill financing just to blow up the offer and continue running a lifestyle company, where they mined share holders in a continuing dilutive fashion.

          The new MAE management team seems to be so much better and I believe we’ll see ANX and MAE merge in 2020. I also have a position in (OS) Osprey Gold as an exploration drill play in Nova Scotia.

          https://ospreygold.com/site/assets/files/1591/dec_2019_osprey_corporate_presentation.pdf

          • On January 4, 2020 at 9:53 pm,
            Fritz Bender says:

            Thanks again, will look esp. into Osprey Gold

  4. On January 3, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    The only miner I added to in 2020 is GoGold Resources.

    • On January 4, 2020 at 10:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      GoGold was a standout in 2019 producer of mostly Silver and some Gold off their large Parral tailings resources, and definitely got re-rated higher last year. I was tempted to get a position going in them several times in 2019, but the stock kept running, and never really had a big pullback. It’s still near the top of my list if I divest another Silver smaller producer with exploration upside, but I’m fully stocked up at this point, and didn’t see as much upside with tailings production as a mine that can grow larger or have satellite deposits feed it.

      It will be interesting to see how their exploration goes in 2020 on Los Ricos so they can get a 2nd project going and use their production revenues to fund the exploration and eventual economic studies down the road organically.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 11:18 am,
        Fritz Bender says:

        Thanks, yes I wish I had caught it at a earlier price. Brad says he has turned projects into big winners and this is the best so far experienced mine team, but we will see. I studied him and believe he is being truthful. I have a good B.S. detector.

        • On January 4, 2020 at 12:02 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          GoGold is definitely well run, and once again, it is rare the management teams deliver on their strategy and milestones, and GGD has. Most companies just deliver excuses.

          Wish you well in your investing in 2020. Cheers!

  5. On January 3, 2020 at 3:59 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Sentiment Speaks: Gold Investors Wrongly Fear The COT

    Dec. 31, 2019 – Avi Gilburt

    “Many investors are getting spooked because of the COT report.”

    “If you look at history, you will see that the COT is relatively meaningless during bull markets in gold.”

    “Until some support breaks in gold, you should discount this report.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314628-sentiment-speaks-gold-investors-wrongly-fear-cot

  6. On January 3, 2020 at 6:02 pm,
    David says:

    EX:
    Any chance todays activities were an algo attack to help the Commercials reduce their short position. Political news was bad and economic news was not much better . That would be gold positive …which gold was. But, the cot was not gold positive so they attack miners so no short squeeze is allowed to take hold. ??

    • On January 4, 2020 at 3:27 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi David – Who knows? I’m not the right person to ask about the COT, and am not a big proponent of algo attacks or a nefarious cabal trying to assist the commercials with anything. I acknowledge there are some larger banks and institutional funds that sometimes will throw their weight around, which can distort markets for small time durations, but ultimately the global marketplace sets the course for the medium to longer term trends.

      As for the COT positioning, I personally don’t put much stock in using the positioning as a timing tool to determine when selling or buying will occur, and therefore largely ignore most of the COT data in my daily fundamental analysis of companies or technical analysis of Gold/Silver/the miners price charts. I’ve seen too many times where short or long positions stay that way for extended periods of time defying expectations, and would rather just chart the asset classes by themselves and let the price action, volume, and momentum indicators tell the story.

  7. On January 3, 2020 at 7:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    This looks just like the beginning of the run that began last May with gold closing above its weekly Bollinger Bands:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p31406776979&a=524949800

  8. On January 3, 2020 at 7:50 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    I agree with JRB. But they will start to rise. Looks like a lot of people aren’t convinced this is the real deal. And it will be….for a while. I’m still watching the HUI index. When it hits 300 is when I get very concerned about the downside.

    • On January 3, 2020 at 8:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      This is the real deal. Gold just broke out versus the US 30 year T-Bond and has been in a bull market versus it for four years.
      Gold is up almost 50% in 4 years versus this “safe haven” because debt is no antidote to debt.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USB&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30113555600&a=711000952

      • On January 3, 2020 at 8:11 pm,
        Matthew says:
        • On January 4, 2020 at 3:37 am,
          Excelsior says:

          That was pretty funny with the “bombs away.”

          • On January 4, 2020 at 3:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Also agreed this is the real deal and that Gold has been in a bull market since it’s major low Dec 2015 in most currencies on the planet and against the 30 year bond.

            The fact that so many still doubt and question the bull gives confidence that there is still much upside left in this cyclical and secular bull market.

  9. On January 3, 2020 at 7:50 pm,
    Matthew says:

    No technician should have missed the significance of gold taking back its 600 week MA 13 months ago:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p27471132742&a=518191187