Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Wed 12 Feb, 2020

A wide ranging discussion on gold, GDX, GDXJ, SIL and the strong US Dollar

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to share his thoughts on the range bound trading in gold, gold stocks, and silver stocks. Even with the US Dollar continuing to move higher the precious metals are setting up in higher ranges. We breakdown the key drivers moving forward and some time frames of possible breakouts.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site and follow along with his technicals.

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Comments:
  1. On February 12, 2020 at 1:05 pm,
    CFS says:
  2. On February 12, 2020 at 1:22 pm,
    bonzo b. says:

    Not sure Jordan is right about a strong dollar being good for gold. Back in the 1970’s the dollar was weak and gold soared. Then under Reagan the dollar was strong and gold sank.
    Ditto for silver, in spades.

    • On February 12, 2020 at 2:38 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The dollar and gold have been rising together for 18 months and I think that will continue for awhile. The important thing is that gold still beat the buck by 25% in that time which means that the dollar is really weak despite rising against the euro and a few other currencies.
      A close look at the following chart shows that the two still move opposite one another in the short term despite both being in an uptrend.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p44389920924

      Chronic (relative) strength in the USD makes sense in this environment as Bob Hoye always points out but even more chronic strength in real money (gold) makes more sense.

      One has to remember that movements in the dollar as measured by the dollar index are not necessarily correlated to movements in the dollar’s purchasing power in the real world. The gains of the last 18 months perfectly illustrate that fact. USD purchasing power did not rise against anything but a few weaker currencies.

      If you really want to know how the dollar is doing, just watch the gold price. The gold charts say that the dollar is going much lower in real terms in the months and years ahead whether it rises versus other currencies or not.

    • On February 12, 2020 at 2:43 pm,
      Matthew says:

      In the short term, the dollar is very likely to have a pullback that will help gold.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p45390505695&a=528369444

  3. On February 12, 2020 at 1:51 pm,
    Miklo says:

    Guys, they say bells don´t ring at the top, but Jeff CIA-Bozo has been selling Amazon stock like crazy. He has been selling for 4,1 billion. I know thats peanuts for him and his handlers, but something might be brewing here. Nasdaq is nearing 10.000 (just as Gary said) and it would definately surprise me if it went to 11.000 and then a major correction to the 200 wich is at 8.200.

    What say you boys?

  4. On February 12, 2020 at 2:00 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Miklo, I mentioned months ago that I felt the conventional markets have some good odds that they peak in the APRIL/MAY time frame. I base that on some long term chart technicals. We’ll see soon enough.

    • On February 12, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
      Paul says:

      Jordan, no inflation, global still not healthy so everyone is buying the dollar, us stocks and the fed is got mkt back in an election year.
      So why would they lower rates with mkt stong and that why when gold get a pop due to China virus etc, miners can’t do anything. Only matter time before this correction in gold and miners near term will test 200 day moving average and wash this mkt out, then that would create heathy move higher second half year.

  5. On February 12, 2020 at 4:49 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    I may be wrong which I have been many times but I think that renewable energy is the next hot sector. I just sold half my holdings today after a nice 580% gain in 3 months by putting my profits from my original stake into the warrants. Still lots of upside for xebec and hopefully greenlane pulls back. I missed getting it

    • On February 13, 2020 at 5:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Good comments Wolfster.

      I’ve been meaning to review the renewable energy sector again soon, and need to revisit some of the companies in Solar/Wind/Geothermal/Hydro/Run of River/Energy Conservation that looked promising a few years back to see how they are doing today.

      • On February 13, 2020 at 8:11 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Hey Ex I should be more specific. Companies that are turning raw gas into clean gas such as taking the gases from dumps or cattle manure and converting it into useable gases. Hydrogen will be huge as a replacement for transport

        • On February 13, 2020 at 3:07 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, I invested in one of those a few years back as well, that had put a dome over a dump, captured the Methane and used the that to produce power at the plant. It’s a great idea, turning lemons into lemonade.

  6. On February 13, 2020 at 1:17 am,
    Miklo says:

    It was supposed to be ”definitely NOT surprise me..”. Damn iPhone keyboard.

    Anyway, we have seen this playbook a lots of times, insiders selling way ahead of a correction. Wasn’t it Rothschild that said: “Let them have the last 10%”?

    So I think Doc may be right on this one. And since it’s an election year the markets corrects to the 200 and then to a final blowoff top. I think that will make everyone speechless.

    I recall listening to a Lindsey Williams recording and he said something very interesting. He said that Trump was the interrupter and that the stock market would go up up and up. And just as you think it couldn’t go anymore up it would. It would make everyone sucked in. He said this 3,5 years ago. Now, you can have an opinion about who many called a Snake oil salesman, but he was indeed good friend with Ken Fromm and that was not a small thing.

    A lot of writers have written about a reset, even here on KER. How’s this for a theory:
    Let the markets go full bananas and then let it explode and introduce a new USD, eliminate the shylocks debt and return to a semi/quasi gold backed USD (Judy Shelton) is on her way in to the FED. I know it sounds crazy, but then again who would have thought The Masters of The Universe could hold this together so long.

  7. On February 13, 2020 at 5:47 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (AMX) (AMXEF) Reports 29.40 g/t Au Over 8.50 metres In Deepest Hole to Date on Eastern Gold Zone

    by @nasdaq on 13 Feb 2020

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/amex-reports-2940-gt-au-over-850-metres-in-deepest

  8. On February 13, 2020 at 6:59 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    Looks like Barrick is on move followed by good results and dividend hike. Hesitant to reduce my position even though it tells me to do so. Haha

    • On February 13, 2020 at 10:32 am,
      Matthew says:

      I think you’re doing the right thing. Downside risk is minimal compared to upside potential, in my opinion.From short term to long term, it looks great. The earnings beat is great but that 40% div hike is even better.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p13050795709&a=601078119

      • On February 13, 2020 at 11:06 am,
        CaliJoe says:

        Thanks Matthew, I went heavy with Barrick in early January thinking its been ignored with rest of the seniors and its time will come someday. So with earnings and dividend hike, I’m hoping masses will finally take notice of this forgotten BANG stock.