David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 18 Feb, 2020

A Focus On The Pop In Precious Metals And More Importantly The Stocks

Dave Erfle joins me to address this pop in gold, silver, and the underlying stocks. It’s a very encouraging day for PM investors while the rest of this week will need to confirm this move. Dave even throws out a number for gold over the next couple months that might surprise you!

Click here to visit Dave’s site – The Junior Miner Junky.

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Comments:
  1. On February 18, 2020 at 12:30 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Matthew, do you own any LOMLF or IRVRF? I bought IRVRF below 1.30 last year and was about to buy LOMLF but it is up big today and is getting away from me.
    Gold and silver are celebrating Cybil Shepherd’s 70th birthday today. She has been single since 1990. Should Bonzo make a move on her when gold gets to 3K ?

    • On February 18, 2020 at 4:13 pm,
      David says:

      Bonzo:
      I have been holding Lion One, Irving, Novo. Novo for 5-6 years, Irving a couple and lion one for about a year. All have done well and all considered early stage. Quinton Hennigh a part of all of them and supported by Moriarty and the Hedgeless Horseman. You can go to the cro.ca sites on each miner as well as read the people cited above. HH just got back from Lion and is enthused by the description in his writing. He was already high on Irving and Novo. Some I have had good luck with so far are Great Bear, Silvercrest (great news today),Vizsla (looks like a consolidation of some good properties) and hot in late in Azimut but it is holding its big run up so far after some good drill results. One that that has popped in the last 6 weeks with a 13% move today is Ely Royalty. Eric Sprott has jumped in as it has a potentially good royalty with Wallbridge (another Sprott stock of interest). Hope thst helps a little.

      • On February 18, 2020 at 4:35 pm,
        David says:

        Whoops: ceo.ca sites

        • On February 18, 2020 at 10:09 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          David that is a solid list of holdings. I had Novo a few years back prior to the metal detector video surge and sold into that surge, but have never bought it back.

          I’ve owned Lion One since last year, but have followed it for many years. It was when Quinton jumped in and got them to understand the potential size of the deposit that got me more enthused. The Hedgeless Horseman and Bob Moriarty have also been 2 positive voices behind (LIO) as well as (NVO) and (IRV).

          As for Great Bear & Silvercrest they are both top of class GBR as a Gold explorer, and SIL as a Silver explorer/developer. Vizsla has been the talk of the town in the Silver space as the next Silvercrest, and Azimut had a killer exploration program recently that spiked their valuation. I’m interested in Ely Royalty, but have been invested in Golden Valley, Sailfish Royalty, and Maverix, and if I picked up another it would be Metalla, and then EMX Royalty next.

          Regardless, you really know how to pick the winners so don’t keep future picks a secret. 🙂

          Cheers!

      • On February 18, 2020 at 4:44 pm,
        bonzo says:

        David, thanks. I have also owned Novo for several years and irving since it fell below 1.30 last spring. Also MRRMF@ .08 and DGMLF@ .10 Wish I had bought LOMLF sooner.

    • On February 18, 2020 at 5:06 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’m a fan and happy shareholder of Lion One and it has been on a tear for over a year since they acquired the rest of the adjacent land around the whole caldera, and realized that their alkaline system likely goes much deeper and the deposit will likely grow many multiples. Once Quinton joined their team, it seemed like a good time to jump on board, and Bob M gave it the thumbs up.

      • On February 18, 2020 at 5:24 pm,
        David says:

        I picked up DeGrey, Artemis, Kairos and Pioneer and in the hole on all of them. Maybe they will recover enough to be viable for some purpose. DeGrey needs to double from here for me to break even on it. However, I bought them in anticipation that the Pilbara may not work. However, with the sorting machine advances QH is coming up with….may still have a shot at Wits 2.

        • On February 18, 2020 at 7:11 pm,
          bonzo says:

          I bought DeGrey@.10 and watched it fall to .03, and then in the last few days it rocketed above .13 What’s going on? Maybe I should get out while I have a gain and buy some Lion One, but I am flying blind with DeGrey. I’ll probably hang on to it and wait for a pullback in Lion.

          • On February 18, 2020 at 7:41 pm,
            David says:

            DeGrey, I think, recently expanded their resource. I also think they are going to meet with Novo in the near future. I don’t know why. There is an Australian site called Hot Copper that has forums like ceo.ca or stockhouse. The Hot copper people keep up with it. The Aussies seem to issue a lot of shares and do a lot of penny trading, both of which hold things down. But Novo made a move, so maybe things will pick up. It was always felt the others would follow the Novo lead. I guess we will see.

        • On February 18, 2020 at 10:16 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          David – Yes, hopefully the Pilbara sisters like DeGrey, Artemis, Kairos, and Pioneer catch a bid one day to bail a lot of folks out that got trapped in the Pilbara area play frenzy.

          Of that list I only had a position in Kairos for a while and watched it more than double, but told myself to be right and and sit tight, and watched it do a round trip where I sold out at a wash.

          I don’t have any exposure to the Pilbara at present, with the exception of GZZ Golden Valley Mine’s strategic holdings of IZZ International Prospect Ventures.

          I’ve considered DeGrey before but just never got excited enough to pull the trigger.

          If I want Pilbara exposure, I’d probably reposition in Novo Resources.

  2. On February 18, 2020 at 2:05 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Bonzo, I do not own those. LOMLF has sure had a great run over the last year! I think David was smart enough to buy it but I was not.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LOMLF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59362208647

    I knew a hunting outfitter years ago that had a German Shepard he called Cybil but it was lost on him when I pointed out that he had his own “Cybil Shepard.” I explained but he had never heard of the actress before!

    • On February 18, 2020 at 3:44 pm,
      bonzo says:

      Matthew, today I learned that Cybill spells her name wit 2 l’s as her grandfather was named Cy and her father was Bill, and they combined them to get Cybill. You can learn a lot on this site. Better than Harvard or Yale for sure.

  3. On February 18, 2020 at 3:01 pm,
    Matthew says:
  4. On February 18, 2020 at 3:03 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 18, 2020 at 5:26 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      thanks for the info……

      • On February 18, 2020 at 5:43 pm,
        David says:

        Something that I have been trying to do lately that I didn’t do in 2016, is try compounding my gains. I did well in KL and rather than sit on those gains, I began buying some of the other stocks like Great Bear, Irving, Ely or whatever with KL profits. I think I have rolled my early buys in those in other options. For example I had some 40 cent Great Bear and Novo and some 70 cent Irving that I sold and maybe bought things like Mako, vizsla, Wallbridge etc. But I bought enough shares along the way that I still hold credible amounts of shares in the Great Bears, Irvings etc., Hopefully, if they do a 100% retracement like I had in First Majestic, I will be in better shape and will act quicker and safer.

        • On February 18, 2020 at 5:45 pm,
          David says:

          Not sure where my comments are going to end up in this thread. Weird.

          • On February 18, 2020 at 10:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            David – nice work – you did what Eric Sprott did and cashed in on Kirkland Lake as it surged higher, and reallocated into more of the quality Jrs. You likely had very impressive wins in Great Bear, Irving, Ely, Mako, Vizsla, and Wallbridge as well – solid companies.

            Keep up the great work and let us know who is on your radar next. Ever Upward!

          • On February 18, 2020 at 10:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I took a similar track with peeling off profits from Equinox and K92 Mining and putting them in quality Jrs, but they hadn’t run as hard or long as Kirkland Lake had, so I kept my exposure to them medium. I’ve recently trimmed back most of my Equinox position though as it is getting more fully valued for what they have at present, and I’m rotating that into mid-tiers that haven’t run nearly as much yet.

          • On February 18, 2020 at 10:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            In the Silver space I did the same thing with my Silvercorp position and trimmed it back to place more focus in some of the silver developers and explorers, but recently beefed up my SVM position again when it went through that fishing line selloff on relatively good news out of left field. When it runs higher again I’ll likely scalp those profits and reduce the size to continue adding to smaller Jr Silver stocks.

          • On February 19, 2020 at 6:07 am,
            David says:

            I went through a bunch last year that had smaller positions but gains. But some I hav positions in and seeing how they do are: Aston Bay, Bayhorse, Brixton, Defense Metals, Discovery Metals (larger position), Dolly Varden, Erdene, GR Silver, Golden Valley, Group Ten, Hannan, Impact, Integra,Japan Gold, Kootenay, Mako, Metallic, Millrock, Minaurum, Miners Alamos, Northern Shield, Orex, Pacton (ugh). precipitate, Pure Gold, Radisson, Santa Cruz, Sokoman, Strategic Metals, Valore, West Red Lake and Silver Bear. Mostly small positions but I keep them on my books and if something starts moving, I pick something to roll into the one moving. If I have them in my account, I can quickly see a daily change and act without having to check them all. If I hear of something else, the. If it looks more promising like Azimut or Vizsla did recently, I make some swaps. Kind of a fly by night way of doing things but got me in early on some. I try to stay current with the “letter writers” and see if there are some mentioned more than a couple of times. Then see what that stock is about. First impression is share structure… then location, management, resource, grade,and hopefully some wide widths, etc.. Probably mostly dumb luck.

          • On February 19, 2020 at 7:16 am,
            David says:

            Ex:
            Example of getting luck: Bought first batch Ely2/8/2020 for .35 each with costs. Gain 119%. Bought 12 more times with last being 2/14/2020. Gain 19%. Total gain 13 buys 75%. Now if something else begins a move, will sell first ins and hold most of what’s left. Hope we have a few mire years left to this up market,

          • On February 19, 2020 at 10:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Great list of company positions there David. I hold about half those same ones myself.

            Yes, I often keep smaller positions in wider basket, and then one gets active, I average up into it as it grows and increase my position size (sometimes I average down in a story I really believe in if the selling seems overdone).

            Great job on Ely Gold! It is always interesting to learn how different investors average into a position over time, along with their exit strategy. Much appreciated!

  5. On February 18, 2020 at 3:10 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On February 19, 2020 at 8:30 am,
    confused says:

    Matt,
    it looks like Impact has finally broken out past major resistance lines. If silver gets close to the 21$ mark on this run, then it should touch the $1.20 CND zone? If this latest gold/silver surge is real, then this looks like it might happen within 2 months or less.

    thoughts?

  7. On February 19, 2020 at 5:39 pm,
    Marlborough says:

    Matthew, you gave a projection for Impact’s share price if silver hits around $21. What would you project for AXU?

    • On February 19, 2020 at 7:48 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Marlborough, that’s always a tough guess considering the variables but I think it can reach somewhere between 3.50 and 3.70 (usd) even though $21 is just a 16% rise for silver. Even a double would not be a big surprise since AXU delivered 7 to 1 leverage to silver between 11/18 and 9/19. That would actually give you more than a double (7×16%).