KER Commentary – Mon 24 Feb, 2020

Outlooks for US markets, USD, and gold after a wild day

TG Watkins, Director of Stocks over at Simpler Trading joins me to share his thoughts on the charts of the S&P, gold, and the US Dollar. He outlines a scenario where the markets could get a bounce but the more attractive trade will be the safe havens.

Click here to visit the Simpler Trading website to keep up to date on what TG is trading.

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Comments:
  1. On February 24, 2020 at 4:24 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (GOLD) (GLDLF) GoldMining to Acquire Almaden Gold Project in Idaho

    by @newswire on 24 Feb 2020

    “Gold Mining is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with (FISH) (SROYF) Sailfish Royalty Corp. and its subsidiary , to indirectly acquire a 100% interest in the Almaden Gold Project, located in west-central Idaho.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/goldmining-to-acquire-almaden-gold-project-in-idaho

  2. On February 24, 2020 at 4:27 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Resources to Acquire (OOO) (OGLDF) Otis Gold Creating a New Multi-Asset Precious Metals Company

    by @newswire on 24 Feb 2020

    β€œThe combined company will be a well-financed precious metals producer with established silver production in Mexico and an attractive gold development project in the United States. The Transaction is an initial step in Excellon becoming a larger multi-asset precious metals company.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/excellon-resources-to-acquire-otis-gold-creating-a

  3. On February 24, 2020 at 8:04 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    @Goldfinger – “First weekly close above $.10 in $ABRA since 2018: ”

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f53bc1-ABRA.V_Weekly_2.22.2020.png

    “Impressive intersection in hole DDH 20-001:15 Meters of 5.1% Copper, 2.35 g/t Gold & 658 g/t Silver was drilled at depth below the current resource at Oculto.”

    “Putting the entire intersection together in DDH 20-001 yields 29 meters grading 4.3 g/t gold, 430 g/t silver, and 2.77% copper. That’s a hell of a hole and the market basically yawned at this thing.”

    • On February 24, 2020 at 8:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I would only add to @Goldfinger’s comments that if you look at the large volume that has flooded into ABRA since the latest 2 sets of drill results came back in Jan & Feb, it is pretty clear the market isn’t really “yawning” as he mentioned, but the share-price didn’t surge as high as many drill plays would on such good results. It looks to be more of a distribution of folks who want out (like the $.10 warrant holders) and accumulation from the investors that want in based on the potential for Abraplata to keep hitting stellar numbers.

      • On February 25, 2020 at 12:24 am,
        Ozibatla says:

        Im interested to know the overiding sentiment regarding silver and its muted moves of late. If one is to believe the new bull in PMs was to begin after the Dec 2015 lows in gold, then how much longer do we wait before silver catches upto golds impressive rally over the last 9 months? Because after all, technically speaking, the metals have been in a bull for over 4 years.

        I understand much of this bias is based around golds price action and therefore cannot be directly attributed to a seperate metal in silver. However their fundamentals are shared and hence both should sooner or later share similar price action.

        I also understand the often shared theory of silver playing catchup to gold as it likes to sit back and see what is going on in the commodity market. However we are now more than 4 years from golds bear market low seen at the end of 2015. Furthermore, I acknowledge that many were sceptical of the PMs sentiment until gold broke above long term resistance of $1380 mid last year. Again though, theres been plenty of constructive developments within gold, silver etc yet silver remains somewhat slumped comparatively speaking. One only needs to view the GSR for this belief to be validated.

        A final note: Silver currently sits below its bear market “settled priced of $18.60 in 2013”, yet gold is over $300 higher from its same respective level at the aforementioned time???… Go figure!

        • On February 25, 2020 at 8:14 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Ozibatla – Great points and questions as per usual.

          Yes, the big questions investors want to know is when will the Gold : Silver ratio come down?

          When will Silver move and break it’s 2016 high of $21.23? (as you mentioned, Gold broke it’s 2016 high of $1377.50 last year but Silver has yet to respond and get moving to the upside).

          Silver does normally lag Gold for a some time and then play catch up, but lately Silver has been stuck in the $17-mid $18’s range and is not responding like Gold.

          To some degree, the moves over the last few months have been flights to Safe Havens (Dollar, Bonds, Gold) with the Iran missile concerns, the coronavirus, the threats of a slowing economy, etc… Silver didn’t receive nearly as much “safe haven” appeal, but ultimately will be dragged higher with Gold.

          It is concerning, as you note, that Gold has kept plugging higher the last 4 years, since the Dec 2015 low, and Silver got off to a nice start in 2016, but then has been rangebound ever since not really moving much higher or lower.

          There is a definite case to be made that Silver should be up in the mid $20’s by now with the current Gold prices, but it has been capped at the $18.60 level on multiple attempts now. When if finally breaks up into the high $18’s then it should make easier work of the $19’s and keep blasting higher to take out the 2016 high, and confirm to any remaining skeptics the PM bull market is still in full effect.

          Until then the situation with Silver is a bit vexing and it is very late in waking up and joining the bull party.

          • On February 25, 2020 at 8:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            This TA Video by Christopher is particularly good on his analysis of the Silver markets, and he gets into the overhead resistance that in the high $18’s that Silver has tested 7 different times now, but has been unable thus far to break through.

            Worth watch, as he is constructive on Silver finally breaking through resistance and finally making it up to around $23 in the next wave higher of this bull market.
            ___________________________________________________________________________

            Silver Price Update + Breakout Trigger

            iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – Feb 20, 2020 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioF44RqiQQE

  4. On February 25, 2020 at 9:05 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver is currently 18.21. The last time it traded there was on the 18th and IPT was 23% lower than it is now (.46 vs .60). That seems like a good sign to me.

  5. On February 25, 2020 at 10:25 am,
    confused says:

    very TRUE!!!