David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 25 Feb, 2020

Would you believe 1 year ago gold would be $400+ higher but the juniors would still be struggling?

Dave Erfle joins me to focus on the precious metals market trading over the past two days. Gold is pulling back and unfortunately the stocks and silver are still under performing. It’s still a very bullish picture overall for the PMs however when it comes to picking stocks it’s a selective game.

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Comments:
  1. On February 25, 2020 at 12:41 pm,
    larry says:

    Looking at the monthly chart is it a retest of the September 11th double bar highs or building cause to breakout over….My only hesitation is on the weekly chart..If next week does manage somehow to form a swing high..Just saying..Nothing is for certain…..Is deflation lying ahead?…while money flows into dollar based instruments?

  2. On February 25, 2020 at 1:44 pm,
    bonzo b. says:

    Larry, do you think the Deep State has attacked the kereport servers today because of the recent criticism here of allopathic medicine and vaccines?

    • On February 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm,
      larry says:

      lol

      I do not think this is a top priority…Could be wrong…They probably love schil dr freda

  3. On February 25, 2020 at 2:00 pm,
    Bill says:

    “Currently there’s very high bullish sentiment for gold and record inflows into gold funds, yet silver has been lagging remarkably for months. Further, there’s been record buying by global central banks and their track record is abysmal so we will not be surprised if precious metals retrace much or all of recent gains.”

    • On February 25, 2020 at 3:27 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      What publication is that from……and the author……thanks…..

  4. On February 25, 2020 at 2:10 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    “Gold closing below $1620 would be bad.” One more day like today and it will be below $1600.00! Let’s hope some sanity returns tomorrow.

    • On February 25, 2020 at 5:13 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Going below $1600 would put gold back inside of the 4 year channel that it broke out of last week. That would not be good at all but, looking at this weekly chart, I don’t think such a move is likely:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=8&dy=0&id=p23604773018&a=693559276

      The silver lining to today’s action is the complete sentiment reset. The “wall of worry” that a good bull market requires has been restored and weak handed late-comers have already been flushed. Shocking volatility is much better than a long grind lower.

      • On February 26, 2020 at 8:46 am,
        SilverDollar says:

        Thanks, good to know.

      • On February 26, 2020 at 4:35 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        I personally dont think a close below $1,600 would be disastrous for gold but yes not ideal either. I actually thought gold was going to hit $1700 at the beginning of the week on the back of a short term panic type sentiment. I also expected it to retrace back below $1600. The price action currently looks quite constructive in building a new support level around the $1600 region. As for silver, well it continues to disappoint. With the GSR touching 92, the status quo could and probably will continue for the foreseeable future.

        • On February 26, 2020 at 6:30 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Disastrous is subjective, of course. By “not good at all” I meant for the advance that gold is in right now. To give back all of last week’s gain would effectively end any hope for more near term upside. It’s the difference between gold consolidating for days versus weeks or months. Right now, the chance for more near term upside is alive.
          Last week, gold impressively reacquired an uptrend that was lost almost 2 years ago:
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=0&id=p82108562239&a=495649167

          • On February 26, 2020 at 9:09 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Your right, “disastrous” is subjective. In terms of consolidation, it would be nice to see gold stay above last weeks close over the next couple of weeks. Im sceptical however and think it may give way. Again, if this were to eventuate, golds outlook still has some positive shine in the near term.

          • On February 26, 2020 at 9:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I just don’t want it to go below last week’s open. That would be a problem for the near term.

  5. On February 25, 2020 at 2:17 pm,
    Bill says:

    PMs go down with the others. Global markets are going south for a while.

  6. On February 25, 2020 at 2:33 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    Part of the pressure on gold today surly was the option expiration day on the Comex for precious metals. Couldn’t allow that kind of profit to endure!

    • On February 25, 2020 at 2:55 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      This was more of a “sell everything” day with general markets, bonds, metals, commodities, cryptos, all tanking.

      • On February 25, 2020 at 3:31 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        There is something going on with silver……..and it is not acting as should be…..
        The little people’s metal…..is way to depressed ….close at $17.90…..
        I think , it is just the masters playing tricks and and mind games….. 🙂

        • On February 25, 2020 at 9:52 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It is bizarre that Silver can’t seem to break that overhead resistance at $18.60-$18.70, but more importantly, that it still hasn’t broken out above it’s 2016 surge high at $21.23, like Gold did last year.

          With Gold up so much into the mid $1600’s, I’d have expected Silver to already be in the mid $20’s by now, but it is stuck in the muck…..

  7. On February 25, 2020 at 2:36 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Eric Sprott’s $1.3B Portfolio of 60+ Mining Stocks

    by @AndrewNelson on 25 Feb 2020

    “Legendary resource investor Eric Sprott is well positioned for this gold bull market as we head towards US$1700/oz. I have compiled his public positions in over 60 mining stocks worth over $1.3B for subscribers. His top 5 investments are all gold focused. 3 out of the 5 are already in production, and the other 2 are advanced developers.”

    https://ceo.ca/@andrewnelson/eric-sprotts-13b-portfolio-of-60-mining-stocks

    • On February 25, 2020 at 9:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I feel a bit better about my portfolio of 70+ mining stocks now 😉

      Over time I’m going to work on getting a more concentrated position in the Gold and Silver stocks as that is where I’ve got more than I initially targeted and built 2 ETFs. With the Base Metals, PGMs, Specialty Metals, Uranium, and Lithium stocks I’ve got more targeted picks.

  8. On February 25, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver Price Forecast – Silver Diverges From Gold

    Christopher Lewis – 6 hours ago (Feb 25, 2020) – FX Empire

    “Silver markets fell hard during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking back down below the $18.50 level. By doing so, it looks as if the market is going to try to find some type of normalcy, perhaps closer to the $18 handle. Silver is an industrial metal as well as a precious metal, so keep that in mind. It is because of this that gold rallied while silver struggled a bit from the lows. This doesn’t mean that we can’t rally from here, and quite frankly I think we will eventually. We may have to stabilize a little bit in the meantime though, perhaps sending this market sideways more than anything else. If the market does dip though, signs of support or of bounce should be jumped on as a buying opportunity.”

    https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/silver-price-forecast-silver-diverges-from-gold-635499

  9. On February 25, 2020 at 5:14 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 26, 2020 at 7:50 am,
      Matthew says:

      Gap filled.

  10. On February 25, 2020 at 5:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    GLD fell back to the small fork it broke out of on Friday:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p69169825091&a=692805130

  11. On February 25, 2020 at 5:44 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold backtested a much larger fork that it broke out of on Friday:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70734487033&a=713218340

    • On February 25, 2020 at 8:06 pm,
      aninvisiblehand says:

      Matthew, any thoughts on Novo Resources right now? thanks

      • On February 26, 2020 at 10:05 am,
        Matthew says:

        It is very oversold so if I were confident about its future (I do not follow it), I’d have a hard time not buying it here even though it could drop another 12%+/- down to that red fork support.
        Notice that it broke its uptrend support that began last summer. This looks like a shakeout to me but you could wait until it climbs back above it if you’re worried that the break is something more serious. You could also consider buying if it hits that fork support. If it were me, I’d probably buy a little now and then more if it goes lower OR takes back the broken support. I’m not usually a fan of buying my complete position and one price point and i wouldn’t do so here (@2.44cdn).
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p81028746155&a=703918626

        If you already own all you want and were thinking of selling, I would not sell it here since you are almost certain to get a better price in the not-to-distant future. That’s just my opinion and it could be wrong, not advice.

      • On February 26, 2020 at 11:01 am,
        Matthew says:

        The 233 week MA is currently at 2.45 and the weekly chart oscillators will take time to turn up unless there’s a strong rally. It’s scary waterfall decline but very oversold on the daily chart and at a zone of support stemming from last summer’s trading:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24293224340

  12. On February 25, 2020 at 7:45 pm,
    David says:

    I feel like gold “backtested” the back of my head with a sledge hammer.

    • On February 25, 2020 at 9:28 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ha! It does feel like that certain days David.

      It feels like my miners got hit in the back of the head of sledge hammers today.

  13. On February 25, 2020 at 10:00 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Western Australia is world’s new top mining destination

    Cecilia Jamasmie | February 25, 2020

    “Resource-rich Western Australia has been picked the most attractive region for mining investment in 2019, the latest annual survey of mining companies released Tuesday by the Fraser Institute shows.”

    “Finland, and moved into second place, after ranking 17th in 2018.”

    “United States’ Nevada moved down two spots from first in 2018 to third in 2019.”

    “Rounding out the 10 most attractive destination for mining investors are Alaska, Portugal (fifth in 2019, versus 46th in 2018), South Australia, Ireland, Idaho, Arizona and Sweden.”

    “For the first time in a decade, no Canadian jurisdiction made it to the top 10, but the province of Saskatchewan remains the most attractive region, ranking 11th on this year’s global survey index.”

    https://www.mining.com/western-australia-emerges-a-new-top-mining-destination/

    • On February 26, 2020 at 8:57 am,
      SilverDollar says:

      Good to know. One of my best holdings is PMNXF. Approaching a triple. Don’t ever see any comments on it in this page.

  14. On February 26, 2020 at 7:51 am,
    Matthew says:

    For you AXU holders, the Feb. 19 gap has been filled to the penny:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p79484227970&a=709369195

    • On February 26, 2020 at 8:20 am,
      Marlborough says:

      Thanks Matthew. Much appreciated for pointing that out.

      • On February 26, 2020 at 8:48 am,
        Excelsior says:

        +1

      • On February 26, 2020 at 8:56 am,
        Matthew says:

        AXU is better than just fine and I noticed my broker now has a short restriction on it so it will probably move impressively very soon as team shorty pants runs for cover.

  15. On February 26, 2020 at 8:30 am,
    Marty says:

    Happy to add to Great Bear @ US 5.84 near opening

  16. On February 26, 2020 at 8:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    There are lots of reasons to remain confidently bullish and the following GDX:SPY chart illustrates one of them. It opened the week with a breakout and a massive 8%+ gap that has now been mostly filled thanks to the miners pulling back strongly. That gap-fill is a good thing and look at that new weekly MACD buy:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00981372812&a=723016925

    • On February 26, 2020 at 10:04 am,
      Bill says:

      Sorry from way above.
      Trend Letter
      UNREAL almost as good as Mathew lol
      Bullish Gold LONG TERM bear on reg Equity.
      Shorted DOW last week.

      • On February 26, 2020 at 1:13 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        That makes sense……….

  17. On February 26, 2020 at 10:09 am,
    Bill says:

    Free trial HIGHLY RECOMMEND ! https://thetrendletter.com

    • On February 26, 2020 at 1:12 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Thanks for the post………

  18. On February 26, 2020 at 9:01 pm,
    Bill says:

    You Bet.
    Our short trade up 35% in 3 days…