Weekend Show – Sat 29 Feb, 2020

Hour 1 – Recapping the worst week for investors since 2008

Full First Hour

This was a week for the history books. Markets started off poorly and things just got worse throughout the week. It was the worst week for US equities since 2008. This weakness extended to the safe havens a well with gold moving down almost $60 on Friday. Gold stocks were hammered as well.

As disappointing as the markets were this week I think you will all enjoy this first hour. Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for US markets, yields, gold and the overall environment for investors.
  • Segment 2 – Trader Vic is back and he has some thoughts on the fall in markets and central bank comments from the week.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital dives into the metals sector on the back of the huge selloff on Friday. With the indiscriminate selling of metals stocks we outline where to look when the stocks bottom.

Exclusive Company Updates From This Week


Axel Merk
Trader Vic Sperandeo
Matt Geiger
View related posts on: , , ,

Comments:
  1. On February 29, 2020 at 3:44 am,
    cfs says:

    Thanks, Guys.
    Interesting show; even more interesting week.
    “When in doubt, get out” seems to be the catchphrase of the week.
    Trump has made a mistake in down-playing covid-19.
    Axel Merk is also underestimating the effect on the economy.
    You take random parts out of any machine and see how well it works.
    Such will be the effect of the virus on the economy.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 4:38 am,
      bonzo b. says:

      cfs and Moriarity finally agree on something! The Wu flu is going to be really bad.
      God help us if Bernie becomes POTUS.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 10:10 am,
        cfs says:

        Moriarty and I agree on lots of things…
        except flying though the Eiffel tower, and putting anti-Jew spin on opinions.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 1:03 pm,
          bonzo b. says:

          I wonder if Moriarity agrees with you on dark matter, dark energy, black holes, and the Big Bang vs Steady State?

    • On February 29, 2020 at 5:44 am,
      Thomas says:

      Did you got already your FFP3 masks?

      At Amazon the prices for masks are going through the roof

      https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51675183

      • On February 29, 2020 at 1:25 pm,
        bonzo says:

        I wish I had bought face masks 2 weeks ago instead of Lion One@1.53
        I could have made 400% profit on masks… Maybe I should order more ammo…

        • On February 29, 2020 at 7:01 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          speaking of Lion One….

          Field Sampling Returns High-grade Gold from Lion One’s Navilawa Tenement at Its Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project

          by @newsfile on 19 Feb 2020

          “Lion One Metals Limited (LIO) (LOMLF) is pleased to announce that that recent surface sampling at its new Navilawa exploration license, part of its 100% controlled Tuvatu alkaline gold project, Fiji, has returned high-grade gold assays”

          https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/field-sampling-returns-high-grade-gold-from-lion-ones

  2. On February 29, 2020 at 3:55 am,
    cfs says:

    Coronavirus unlikely to vanish next year-NIH’s Fauci.
    https://news.trust.org/item/20200228151300-j38vl

    The CDC has made an incredible blunder by thinking the incubation period is only 14 days……moronic !
    There has been clear evidence of extended incubation of 24 days, 27 days. Failure to quarantine for at least 28 days will kill many more people.
    The virus is no longer containable, and with its spread comes the collapse of the economy.

  3. On February 29, 2020 at 3:57 am,
    cfs says:

    Trader Vic is uninformed.
    The first death was months ago in China.
    If the virus doesn’t survive in cold weather; what about Singapore ?
    (Not exactly a cold climate.)

    • On February 29, 2020 at 12:49 pm,
      Dragonite says:

      It is very likely the virus is less lethal in hot climates and mutate into regular flu. This is how SARS fades away. China has two close neighbors. Korean is in a state of emergency and Vietnam is just fine. Korea is 100 times more advanced than Vietnam. At same time India seems very resistant to the disease even there thousands of suspected cases. They seems just recovered quickly.

  4. On February 29, 2020 at 4:08 am,
    cfs says:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3053018/coronavirus-kenya-suspends-flights-china-orders-isolation-239

    At least some African countries have commonsense leadership.

    (But the real reason they are not reporting covid-19 is that they don’t test for it.

  5. On February 29, 2020 at 6:01 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Graph of China February PMI – (not a very rosy picture)

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f5jf42-China%20PMIs.jpg

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:05 am,
      John Kruschke says:

      Great minds think alike. I was the one minute behind you with almost the same picture.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 6:26 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The global economy is definitely going to feel the slowdown in Chinese productivity in a tangible way. Economies all over the planet were already slowing down, and this black swan event will just force the issue in a more meaningful way, and will disrupt both supply chains, purchasing power from the worlds 2nd largest economy, and tourism in many countries. The ripple effect has begun…

    • On March 1, 2020 at 9:37 am,
      Excelsior says:

      COVID‑19: Repercussions Could Worsen Before They Improve

      Tiffany Wilding, Nicola Mai – February 2020

      “Because China now accounts for an estimated 25% of global manufacturing activity, the ramifications will be felt worldwide.”

      “It’s both a supply and demand shock. For most countries, there will be a direct hit as exports to China slow. Already, falling Chinese demand for commodities has led to lower prices for industrial metals and oil.”

      “On the supply side, a key concern is that reduced production of components made in China could lead to price hikes and force manufacturers outside China to find new sources of supply, or at worst, halt production. However, moving supply chains is a complex process that would likely take three to five years to play out – so near-term supply disruptions to economic activity could be significant.”

      “However, the decline in global equity markets – a real-time indicator – suggests that economic fundamentals may be deteriorating faster than previously thought. As a result, preemptive policy is needed to stabilize financial conditions and thwart a larger hit to the economy.”

      “Just before the market closed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank would act as appropriate, if necessary. We believe the Fed will announce an interest rate cut as a preemptive step at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next gathering on 18 March, and keep the door open for further cuts as needed.”

      https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/blog/covid19-repercussions-could-worsen-before-they-improve/

  6. On February 29, 2020 at 6:02 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    This pretty much sums up this past week
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPDISC

  7. On February 29, 2020 at 6:12 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    Through all the carnage, the spot price of Uranium actually gained .30.
    I can still hear Doc saying “So goes JNK, so goes this market.”
    BND and LQD were gainers as well for the week.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, I noticed a few green shoots in the Uranium miners, as anything moving up really stuck out.

      Symbol – Uranium Stocks – Daily Change %

      FSY.TO Forsys Metals Corp. +15.79%
      PTU.V Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. +11.11%
      UWE.TO U3O8 Corp. +10.00%
      DNN Denison Mines Corp. +9.87%
      API.CN Appia Energy Corp. +9.09%
      UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. +8.26%
      PLU.V Plateau Energy Metals Inc. +7.94%
      LAM.TO Laramide Resources Ltd. +7.69%
      FCU.TO Fission Uranium Corp. +4.55%
      CCJ Cameco Corporation +4.45%
      WWR Westwater Resources, Inc. +4.09%
      GXU.V GoviEx Uranium Inc. +3.85%
      LEU Centrus Energy Corp. +3.37%
      AZZ.TO Azarga Uranium Corp. +2.94%

      • On February 29, 2020 at 12:40 pm,
        Dragonite says:

        I do noticed that these are up slightly. It is unique in the fast crashing market. Hope it lasts.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 2:29 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, I’ll be looking for more follow through in the Uranium miners next week, but was anticipating things to start moving in mid February, so they are a little late to the game, but it was encouraging to see some increases in the face of the larger market declines.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 2:43 pm,
            Dragonite says:

            UEC and URE are doing poorly. Do you know why?

          • On February 29, 2020 at 2:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Most of the US uranium stocks have been doing poorly since the Section 232 news didn’t deliver last year, and the Nuclear Working Group has had stall after stall on releasing its findings and suggestions to the Trump administration.

            UEC was still over-hyped for some time and needed to let some air out of the tires, but URE/URG actually outperformed most of the sector last year in the lead up to something being done to help domestic Uranium producers, but has pulled back since there has been a lull. Ur-Energy is a very well run and disciplined company, and was one of the last companies to have off-take agreements in the $50s, so it was able to buy most of that in the spot markets for the $20s and then resell it for a nice profit margin. However, most supply contracts for all companies Energy Fuels, Cameco, etc.. are dwindling and until the utility companies have clarity on what the Nuclear Working Group recommends, then they aren’t in a rush to buy and start new longer term contracts again. Everything is on pause until there is more clarity around that. One positive is that the Kazakhs have stopped dumping fuel into the spot markets for the time being.

            There should be news breaking any week now about what is to be done to assist the Nuclear Energy sector and thus the Uranium mining supply side of that equation.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 7:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ur-Energy Releases 2019 Year End Results

            28 Feb 2020

            Ur-Energy CEO, Jeff Klenda said: “At February 26, we had $6.4 million in cash, and nearly 270,000 pounds of finished, ready-to-sell U3O8 inventory at the conversion facility. This provides a solid foundation for us to begin 2020, and complements our distinct advantage over our peers in being able to ramp up our operating low-cost Lost Creek facility quickly and cost-effectively when warranted. In the period of uncertainty following the President’s decision not to take immediate action with regard to the Section 232 Trade Action, we took aggressive, but positive, measures, to sustain operations and maximize our runway. With the cooperation and support of the State of Wyoming and Sweetwater County, we deferred six quarterly principal payments, totaling $7.8 million, and implemented many other cost-saving measures.”

            “Beyond extending our runway, these actions enabled us to avoid any further dilution to our shareholders while we await the recommendations of the U.S. Nuclear Fuel Working Group formed by the President in response to our trade action. The recently announced ten-year, $150 million annual budget item for the creation of a national uranium reserve is a solid signal of support from the Administration and appears to be part of the recommendations of the Working Group. Secretary of Energy Brouillette has commented publicly he anticipates the Working Group report being published at any time. We await the release of the recommendations and hope to be able to ramp-up production at Lost Creek soon.”

            https://ceo.ca/@newswire/ur-energy-releases-2019-year-end-results

          • On February 29, 2020 at 11:31 pm,
            Dragonite says:

            I pray for higher prices of uranium. Since Japanese nuclear accident, the sector has been in a comma. China and India are building a lot of nuclear reactors and one day the price has to rise, otherwise a plant without fuel is a pile of junk.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 4:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Dragonite. The new reactor builds in China, India, and the Middle East will need fuel along with the existing global fleet of reactors, but until the utility companies start new longer term offtake contracts for the fuel, then the pricing won’t move up enough to be economical or encourage new production to come online.

            Once the Nuclear Working Group makes their recommendations, and the Trump administration and Dept of Energy decisively makes a plan on addressing things with strategic defense buying, or quotas, or tariffs on imported fuel, or something different then the utilities will have direction on how to proceed.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 10:36 am,
            Dragonite says:

            If my information is correct, China is starting 8 nuclear reactors a year since 2019 till 2030. China has no choice but to do this since its oil way is under US navy control. The shortest path is Pakistan but it still has to go through Holmuz. In the vital time US will block the sea and China either have to fight or starve. At same time, China is also massively producing shale gas with horizontal drilling and fracking despite of much deeper reserves. It average 3500 meters and US is less than 2000 meters. My friend is in charge of equipment supply and he said the explorers make money. He went back to work in the middle of Chinese new year and at early stage of the disease. All of the leaders went back to work despite the emergency. I also heard the news that China is test produced Methane ice. It sounds like China has this crisis feeling and plans way ahead.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 4:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The other area of growth for nuclear is with the smaller “modular reactors” that many countries are interested in pursuing. Russian just put into operation it first floating modular nuclear reactor last year. Canada is getting interested in them as well and there was just a presser out on it recently.

            _______________________

            Canadian Nuclear Laboratories and NB Power Sign Collaboration Agreement to Advance Small Modular Reactors

            Feb 27, 2020

            https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/canadian-nuclear-laboratories-and-nb-power-sign-collaboration-agreement-to-advance-small-modular-reactors-2020-02-27

          • On March 1, 2020 at 5:13 pm,
            dragonite says:

            Small modular reactor is perfect for ships and maybe airplanes. It should get popular. without those brain dead environmentalists , we could be much more advanced

          • On March 1, 2020 at 10:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, there are already nuclear subs and ship, but the small nuclear reactors can actually power small factories or small communities with their power, and don’t have the the risks of meltdowns like the larger older reactor power plants do. They are far less costly to bring online, and if that trend picks up, then it will assist with the demand-side from Uranium miners.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 7:09 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (UUUU) (EFR) Energy Fuels Files Updated Preliminary Feasibility Study for Sheep Mountain Uranium Project

        28 Feb 2020

        https://ceo.ca/@newswire/energy-fuels-files-updated-preliminary-feasibility

    • On February 29, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      You don’t have a relative who used to be a professor of political science, do you? I believe his name was Earl.

  8. On February 29, 2020 at 6:22 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Despite this “sell everything” week in almost every asset class (General Equities, Bonds, Precious Metals, Oil, Base Metals, Cryptos, Cannabis, fintech, etc…), the fear will subside and the volatility will diminish. It is actually during times of extreme volatility that some of the more interesting opportunities and trade set ups present themselves.

    Gold is still in the bull market that kicked off at its major low of $1045.40 in Dec 2015, and it was getting very overbought, so a corrective pullback was in order anyway. However, the severity of the pullback in the mining shares really was surprising, and many of them are trading like gold is back at $1100-$1200. This week was the worst rout in the mining shares that I remember since the nosedive in 2013.
    Medium term and longer term the metals and miners will still outperform, and while it make take a while for the selling to exhaust itself, this will be the window of time that savvy investors go bargain hunting and bottom fishing in the sector. Almost every company is on sale, so for those that wanted to top up positions or felt stocks had run away from them, we are entering the window where folks can buy into the weakness or average down in stocks that they still fundamentally stand behind that have brighter days in front of them.

    One area that may support the general markets and overall mood with investors will be that the FED will be trying to prop up the markets next few weeks and there are many rumors they may cut rates to ease the tension. Even the anticipation of this may assist with quelling the selling and bringing in speculators. Some of the US equities rallied at the end of the day after being down much more earlier on, and the NASDAQ closed barely in the green. I’m not sure we have another 2008 quite yet, but if the next rally fails, then it will be time to move assets out of the markets and get more defensive. This was likely the shot across the bow, but there will be one last attempt to power through the fear in the markets and that move can be traded higher, but with an eye on the exit doors for the medium to longer term.

    My expectations are for a pop in the early part of next week in a number of markets. As it relates to the resource sector, the selling in the miners went from overbought to oversold, and at this point folks may start doing the math on just how much these share fell out of bed this week, once people have the weekend to cool their jets.

    These snapback rallies can be nice trades for quick gains, or to trim back out of lowering one’s cost basis; even if they are short-lived and roll back over to test lows one more time. I was a buyer of a few Silver and Gold stocks at the end of trading Friday, but mentioned Friday morning when the carnage was continuing on that I’d be buying when there was blood in the streets. It may not be the exact low, but I don’t feel I was overpaying for quality companies late on Friday after a very brutal week for the miners. My only regret is not having more cash on hand and there were so many fishing line sell offs and exaggerated moves downwards.

    Wishing everyone good luck in their investing and prosperity in these turbulent times.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 7:02 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      A banker/investor/speculator, with unsold securities on his hands is unlikely to say anything which will make it more difficult to dispose of them, no matter what his private thoughts are. LOL! DT

      • On February 29, 2020 at 7:24 am,
        Excelsior says:

        DT – I’m not sure what the insinuation is in your comment, but I provided my honest thoughts here just for discussion purposes, and was in fact buying, not selling on Friday.

        If your point was that I was talking up a snapback rally in order to generate liquidity from the tiny audience here at the KER to keep selling, or if you think that would amount to a hill of beans, then you’d way off base. LOL indeed.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 7:51 am,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Ex, I am a realist, I did not mean to insinuate anything about you other than the coin has two sides. DT

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            OK… It seemed like jab in direct response to my comment implying I was being disingenuous or saying the opposite of what my “private thoughts” were.

            The only reason I come here is to share ideas & thoughts & news with other investors, and not to run a disinformation campaign. What value would it be to spend the time to write out some thoughts if I privately felt exactly the opposite? That makes no sense, despite your two-sided coin realism.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:26 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Ex, note I said Banker/investor/speculator, I was including one and all and not targeting an individual. The net I cast was wide, you happened to fall into that net like we all did, so don’t take it seriously. I know I won’t. DT

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            OK. Well I was a banker for a short jaunt, and am an investor/speculator and you posted it directly under my comment, so it seemed directed at me, especially considering the content of the post.

            Maybe it was just an odd place to post your “wide net” comment, and thanks for clarifying that you actually meant that all speculators “with unsold securities on his hands is unlikely to say anything which will make it more difficult to dispose of them, no matter what his private thoughts are.”

            Moving on….

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:44 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Best to leave well enough alone especially after last week. DT

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, very wise.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 9:55 am,
            b says:

            I bought friday too, i thought the prices were good, but I think I should have waited, except for Irving.

            My thinking was if the slide continues I will buy more.

            It occured to me, the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

            Maybe simply wise to be cautious.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            b – It’s always a tough call buying into extreme weakness, but I positioned in the more liquid miners for a tradable bounce back rally in the near future, but concede that there could still be more weakness to follow.

            There are other more thinly traded developers and explorers that I waited on as I wouldn’t expect the momo investors, funds, and hedgies to rush back into them too quickly on a bounce.

            Many of the Gold and Silver juniors were down double digits this week. If any of them pull down to a 38.2% Fibonacci level, then I’d be a buyer at that level and need to review some charts this weekend to see where some of the juniors are at.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 7:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I should have clarified the Junk Bonds (JNK) (HYG) (ANGL) and many corporate bonds were pulling back most of the week which is usually a signal of the underlying market strength. They did have a slight uptick on Friday, but in contrast the longer term treasuries got a bid as a safe haven through the week and were one of the only areas to hide.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 8:03 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        I will save my thoughts for the derivative market for another day, enough is enough. DT

    • On February 29, 2020 at 5:53 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Sounds comments as usual Ex. Hopefully bearish sentiment in the PMs is not too severe or long lasting.

      • On March 1, 2020 at 8:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Ozibatla, and agreed that the bearish sentiment shouldn’t last too long or be too severe. Really, Gold was overbought, and needed a sentiment wash, but Silver and the Miners sure were not, and so their recent pullbacks to even lower levels, came at a time where most were expecting them to start playing catchup rather than gap down.

  9. On February 29, 2020 at 6:31 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Make no mistake about it a wide open crack in the stock market was delivered last week. I don’t want to say appeared, that would be playing into the hands of the politically correct. Despite it’s severity we will soon find out whether it is an intermediate movement or the beginning of an economic Depression. Judging by the amount of liquidation The Federal Reserve has been dumping in the system since September 2019 they knew something was terribly wrong. That is all they knew other than they are beaten. If it is a Depression they will need a lot more liquidation very soon and they should stop substituting the “D” word (Depression) for the “SR” word (Serious Recession). DT

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:35 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Thanks for telling me you told your kids to buy silver and platinum ….
      Silver is a buy , today……jmo

    • On March 1, 2020 at 8:53 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Worst Commodity Returns Since 1987 Spawned By Virus Sell-Off

      Bloomberg News | February 28, 2020

      “The Bloomberg Commodity Index was already headed lower due to rising supplies and global trade wars even before the outbreak. Now, the spread of the virus is exacerbating its decline. The gauge slid for a fifth session Friday, taking its weekly loss to 6.6% in the worst performance since September 2011.”

      https://www.mining.com/web/worst-commodity-returns-since-1987-spawned-by-virus-sell-off/

  10. On February 29, 2020 at 6:33 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Gold is NO PROBLEM>>>>>>>.just a mere MARGIN CALL selling to cover other losses….
    NOTE…………silver was taken down by the MARGIN CALL CHANGE at CME without them
    giving Notice.
    (I posted the info yesterday)…CME….playing the same game increasing margin as they did the last time silver took off….

    • On February 29, 2020 at 9:26 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      We all know the game is rigged……so, think like the crooks……

      • On February 29, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Gold is a Tier One asset….for the bankster…….gold not going anywhere but up….long term…

  11. On February 29, 2020 at 6:35 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Got crushed this week. The only bright spot was the O3 Mining I bought just before the close yesterday at $1.99 and then someone else liked it so much it ran up to $2.44 at the close. These volatile markets are great if you are able to follow 24/7. My day job is killing my trading opportunities. Lol

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:47 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      The construction industry in Toronto has been in a super boom for about fifteen years, like the oil industry it is either boom or bust. When the good times are rolling save your money and prepare for the time when you will be lucky to have a job delivering pizza. DT

      • On February 29, 2020 at 7:01 am,
        Wolfster says:

        With interest rates where they are now and for the foreseeable future there will be no slowdown. Too many people are just utilizing the equity in their homes with these low rates to do additions rather than move. If and when real estate prices get a major correction the you know what will hit the fan but I hopefully will be in sechelt bc by the time that happens.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 7:28 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Wolfster, most investors got crushed last week, so the question is which sectors will rebound the fastest, and will the FED try to backstop the general markets to quell the selling and improve sentiment.

      Overall, I’d expect more buying next week after such a rout.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 7:58 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I think you are more correct…than wrong……..because the FED CHAIR…came out on Friday…..which means….they are going to step in……and buy the market….jmo
        Just gut feeling….because there is no logic to this over priced market…… 🙂
        Politicians and banksters are crooked mined, so, what are they thinking….:)

        • On February 29, 2020 at 8:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          If you look at the daily or hourly charts of the DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite Index, there was new buying that came in at the end of the day, and continued into afterhours trading. It may have been value investors just buying the dip, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the FED got with it’s banking minions to start buying.

          We’ll see how it goes next week…. cheers!

        • On February 29, 2020 at 8:38 am,
          Ebolan says:

          Janet Yellow has came out of “retirement” a while ago saying the Feral Reserve should buy equities. Of course the PPT has been doing it indirectly for decades but now they are going to make it official. No holds barred. Pedal to the metal bubblemania coming right up!

          See all you boys in the FEMA camp with my pet Corona virus.

  12. On February 29, 2020 at 6:38 am,
    Wolfster says:

    I will add planet 13 was green as well yesterday. Perhaps pot has replaced alcohol as the go to in times of despair

    • On February 29, 2020 at 10:26 am,
      Charles says:

      Thanks for the show KER! All I can say is OUCH!

  13. On February 29, 2020 at 8:42 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    Seemingly a few things are getting clearer since Mr. Market unraveled last week.

    (a) Why GDX and GDXJ were unable to breakout off their 7 year long resistance even though GOLD was making new highs.They already sniffed out coming selloff in general equities market. This phenomena puzzled many but now it is making sense.
    (b) Why oil stocks languished
    (c) Why Biotech sector didn’t participate in rally as much as Tech did.
    (d) Why BDI continued down.
    (f) Why Copper continued down

    A few more things can be added to the above list but its all I can come up with right now.

  14. On February 29, 2020 at 9:11 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Remember……….just a Note………..
    ..GOLD is a Tier One asset on the banker’s book……….
    JPM……has amassed the biggest hoard of silver on the planet…….950million oz…and that is 9.5 x the amount the Hunt Bros. amassed in the 70’s

    • On February 29, 2020 at 9:23 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:
      • On February 29, 2020 at 4:02 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        Dang, when I go to all your tapes I get a Bernie Sanders ad…says he wants a small favor of me…and you can bet if the rat gets elected that will end in an OR ELSE! Or I get a Bloombug ad…same statist bullsh*t…so, sooner or later I’ll be seeing you in the FEMA camp…and remember…no pets allowed…except for your pet Corona Virus…and if you don’t have one they will get one for you!

        • On February 29, 2020 at 4:49 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Put your ad blocker on……….

          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:06 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Dang, don’t know what happened to my ad blocker…maybe Bernie burned it….anyway, I got a new one specific for blocking youtube ads…will see if that works.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:08 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            OK Jerry, it worked…no more Burnie or Bloombug…BUT the guy on the left in the video has what looks like a spider on his forehead…dang, it that my some kind of ad or my ad blocker???

          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:11 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I put out a OWL ALERt…….did you see this one…
            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fda-announces-plan-speed-coronavirus-testing-south-korea-reports-huge-jump-new-cases
            Washington Declares State Of Emergency After First US Virus Death; CDC Says “No National Spread In US”: Live Updates

          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:13 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I noticed the spider also.,,,I thought it was his bad hair day….

          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:38 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Oh, ok…thought my ad blocker was putting something on that guy’s forehead.

            I tell you Jerry…every time I have to go out in public I seem to be around people with hacking coughs…think any day now I may come down with tuberculosis…and now this Corona…like I say…see you in the FEMA camps.

  15. On February 29, 2020 at 9:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Why Should You Have Exposure to Silver Now

    Keith Neumeyer & Jeff Clark – Cambridge House Int’l Show #VIDEO

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHvHzyqmDlQ

  16. On February 29, 2020 at 9:19 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    The weekly Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index still above it’s November low. The January double top was a good forecaster of what was to come.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    • On February 29, 2020 at 9:46 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That was a DOW Jones industrial chart, but here is the BPGDM Chart for reference:

      http://schrts.co/YtMnxvTT

  17. On February 29, 2020 at 9:45 am,
    Thomas says:

    What are the top bargains at the moment?

    McEwen Mining? Got below 1 USD – not seen for long time
    Argonaut? Below 200 million USD market cap for a potential mid tier producer

    Any better ideas?

    • On February 29, 2020 at 9:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The answers would depend on many variables, risk tolerance levels, jurisdiction considerations, share count preferences, and which subsector an investor is interested in.

      My preference on Friday was add to some of the Mid-tier Producers like AG, CDE, USAS and I even added some JNUG as a short-duration swing trade on a potential snap-back rally the beginning of next week.

      I also added to my AXU position because the selling looked a bit overdone and had come down to support. Matthew posted some good charts on the Friday blog as it relates to AXU and AG.

      I did consider both MUX and AR that you mentioned, but didn’t have enough cash to buy many more positions.

      Many of the advanced Developers in Gold & Silver were down double digits a few days in a row, so there are some fantastic values in that space, but it may take longer for them to rebound, so I limited my buying to mostly the producers personally.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 10:00 am,
        Matthew says:

        By yesterday’s close, AG managed to take back a couple of important fork supports:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p59815854851&a=578542926

        • On February 29, 2020 at 10:02 am,
          Matthew says:

          The higher high 2 months ago came with a massive negative RSI divergence:
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91543491539&a=706703704

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good chart. I sold out 40% of my AG position on Jan 3rd, and bought back twice that much yesterday at the end of the day.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 10:03 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Nice. Fork yeah First Majestic. As of Friday I have a much larger AG position than I traditionally have held, but will likely trim it back if it does rally in the short to medium term.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:05 am,
            Matthew says:

            That should work out very well even if it goes lower first.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:12 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks. My thoughts were that momo money would flow back into stocks like AG first if there is a snap-back rally in the next week or two, since it is a more widely followed name in the Silver space. As discussed earlier in the week, this popularity also worked against First Majestic this week when it was a sell everything market by shorter-term investors that panic sold this sector. Looking to see if the reverse will also play out with improving conditions.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            It also seems like the CCI and Fast Stochastics seem really oversold on the daily, and that the gap will get filled in the not so distant future.

            http://schrts.co/SBjHmIBA

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:33 am,
            Matthew says:

            It could have easily already since it would be normal for such a miner to bottom ahead of silver and silver has just accomplished a huge decline in a short time and on spiking volume which tends to accompany a low.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p00223888796&a=724486511

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:41 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Ah yes, the Fib 61.8% retracement may be a good support for AG. Wow, what a fall from grace it’s had. I had such a good cost basis, and had reduced the position by 40%, so I hadn’t noticed just how far AG had fallen from the recent highs.

            Thanks for that chart.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 10:04 am,
          Matthew says:

          It is now testing speed line (red) and Fibonacci fan supports:
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p84437163012&a=593668922

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I don’t like how many moving averages that long red candle took out in AG, but do like the Fib fan support underpinning things.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:13 am,
            Marlborough says:

            Thanks for the update on AG. Any further thoughts on AXU after the close?

          • On February 29, 2020 at 10:52 am,
            Matthew says:

            AXU just had its second highest weekly volume ever and retraced more than 75% of the run that began from the 2018 low so I will be surprised if it even comes close to making a new low. The panic out of everything will give way to “panic” dip-buying/bargain hunting.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p59824833118&a=668627322

          • On February 29, 2020 at 11:14 am,
            Marlborough says:

            Thank you, Matthew.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 10:00 am,
        Excelsior says:

        That was worded poorly, and for clarity, I already have a nice AR position and small MUX position, but didn’t have enough cash to add to those positions, and they didn’t seem as beat down as other stocks.

        I had also added to SVM on Thursday, as it has pulled back quite a bit, but has some of the best fundamentals in the Mid-tier Silver/Zinc/Lead producers.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 12:42 pm,
          Thomas says:

          There are many discounts at the moment. But what are the high quality producer that you can get at an ultra low valuation (top bargain)

          First Majestic or Hochschild are high quality. But are their valutions already in the bargain territory?

          • On February 29, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Absolutely First Majest is at a huge bargain. If you look at Matthews charts posted up above you can see it has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement level from the move it made in the recent intermediate low to intermediate high, and it hit 2 different levels of technical support. That is a huge fall, and very likely area to start building a base and rise back up. I haven’t looked deeply into Hochschild, but it has never been a top performer or done as well relative to the larger company peer group as First Majestic, Coeur, and Silvercorp have.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 1:15 pm,
          Thomas says:

          Top bargains at the moment are probably special situations at crazy valuations

          That’s why I mentioned MUX and AR. They both have some problems, but are valued like the problems will persist. Of the two MUX is probably the better one regarding the problems.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 2:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That is what I was was getting at above, the valuations in most companies are crazy valuations right now.

            With (SVM) Silvercorp the concerns were about them being in China with Coronavirus there, along with they missed their guidance by $.02 a share but they were punished like they missed it by $.20 a share and it was way overdone. They have the best margins in the business hands down, are still cashflowing like crazy, and have a 29% stake in (NUAG) New Pacific Metals which is doing fantastic on their drilling in Bolivia.

            With (USAS) Americas Gold & Silver, there was an illegal blockade in their Cosala operations in Mexico that is being resolved but it sold off hard along with all stocks correcting. They’ll be fine longer term, and they also just got the huge cash injection from Eric Sprott to move mine improvements and equipment purchases at their Galena operations in Idaho forward by several years, and this is not being factored in properly yet on how that will adjust their Silver profile.

            With (CDE) Coeur Mining, they had a huge impairment charge on temporarily suspending mining operations at Silvertip, and the market did not like that at all, but they are working on more exploration, a different mining stope sequence, and expanding the mill to increase throughput and bring down the costs / improve economics.

            With (AXU) Alexco they announced selling off their environmental business AEG, which did bring in revenues, but the stock wasn’t being valued on that anyway, and they are going to strictly a mining and operational focus soon, and got a nice value for it anyway, but the market sold them.

            In my opinion those were better values than the issues (MUX) McEwen Mining has had with the Argentina currency concerns and in revenues from Black Fox mine in Canada not going according to plan, or the minimal setbacks that Argonaut Gold has had, but there are lot of factors that go into evaluating where things were, where they are, and where they could go, so it is still rather subjective based on one’s one priority and criteria.

            (EXK) Endeavour Silver is another company that has been taken out to the woodshed and beaten because they closed a mine, and have missed their guidance the last 2 years, but once their Terronera development project proceeds into production in the next year or so, then it will completely change the production profile of he company and there will be a huge rerating, as they aren’t getting proper value for that asset at present. It is very similar to how Magino will be a game changer for Argonaut Gold once they move it from development into production.

            Look at Friday’s 38.6% pullback in (MND) Mandalay Resources which seemed to come from nowhere on their press release that they had maintained a 10 year mine life but had depleted 13% of just their Gold reserves. That seems like a big mismatch in valuation.

            > If one wants to get down to actual “Top bargains” then they won’t be found in any of those stocks and will be in the very depressed smaller market cap juniors that are down big on a percentage basis, and could rise the most on a percentage basis.

            Look at how far down (EXN) Excellon Resources had fallen based on the recent pullback in Silver miners, when they announced they were taking over (OOO) Otis Gold. It has been way overdone at this point and is also crazy value.

            Look at how hard almost all the other small Silver miners pulled back this week (SCZ) (IPT) (ASM) (MYA) etc…. They all represent crazy value here, and will climb back many multiples higher than the larger companies when things turn back around in the sector.

            Heck even (GBR) Great Bear, the number 1 biggest gold exploration success story of last year and this year pulled back 19.5% on Friday. (IRV) Irving Resources had pulled back over 25% on Thursday for no good reason. (ANX) Anaconda Mining was down nearly 16% for announcing they had started their drill program because it injected liquidity into their stock and the momentum took it down.

            Their are no shortage of crazy valuations everywhere one looks.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 11:21 pm,
            Thomas says:

            Had a closer look into Excellon, because I thought it might be a top bargain

            It seems that they have a cost issue with their current mine producing at $30 per ounce silver. With base metals going down they probably have an even bigger problem?

          • On March 1, 2020 at 4:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Excellon brought their costs down from the mid $40s (when the mine was mostly flooded) all the way down to $19, but they are up in the high $20’s again due to a mining sequence issue. They’ve had dry mining conditions since late 2017 early 2018, so that is no longer an issue, but they do still have pumps working to bring water out from lower levels and are irrigating the surface crops of farmers with it.

            Now it is more a mining strategy on which stopes to use (as they are very high grade) but they need to reduce the waste rock, how they blend ore feed, and keep optimizing the metal recovery rates. They simultaneously need to keep exploring to stay in front of their mining plan, expand resources, and most importantly find additional “Platosa-like” deposits on their land package.

            I’m not sure exactly what the thought process was on buying OOO Otis Gold, but they are diversifying jurisdiction, precious metal, and mining method. I guess this is why the market threw a tantrum and sold their stock down so hard on that news, but it is similar to what Great Panther did in buying out Beadell’s gold project, or what Americas Gold & Silver did in buying Pershing’s Relief Canyon gold project, or what First Majestic did with San Dimas (which has more gold than silver), what Coeur did in buying Northern Empire, or Silver Standard (now SSR) buying Claude a few years back. Almost every Silver company including Hecla, Fresnillo, PanAmercian/Tahoe, have also bought gold projects to compliment their Silver operations and assist with costs.

            Personally, I’d like to see EXN Excellon get their costs down at Platosa, drill their property and nail another large deposits, and start generating free cash flows, versus starting a Gold project, but it is par for the course with most of the producers for the last few years.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 4:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Resources to Acquire (OOO) Otis Gold Creating a New Multi-asset Precious Metals Company

            February 24, 2020

            http://www.excellonresources.com/news/details/index.php?content_id=231

    • On February 29, 2020 at 5:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (AR) (ARNGF) Argonaut Gold Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial and Operating Results, Provides 2020 Production, Cost and Capital Guidance

      February 24, 2020

      Pete Dougherty, President and CEO stated: “During 2019, we increased our consolidated Mineral Reserves by 48%, GEO production by 13% and grew our net cash position by over $26 million. As we look to 2020, we are improving operations to reduce our unit costs by processing run-of-mine versus crushed ore at El Castillo, optimizing overburden haul cycle distances and modifying processing parameters. While this will lead to slightly lower GEO production in 2020, we expect it will also lead to higher profitability and stronger cash flow.”

      https://www.argonautgold.com/English/news-and-events/news-releases/news-releases-details/2020/Argonaut-Gold-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Financial-and-Operating-Results-Provides-2020-Production-Cost-and-Capital-Guidance/default.aspx

      • On February 29, 2020 at 5:56 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold and Silver Pours First Gold at Relief Canyon, Provides 2-Year Outlook and 2019 Operating Results

        by @newswire on 18 Feb 2020

        https://ceo.ca/@newswire/americas-gold-and-silver-pours-first-gold-at-relief-9f0ac

      • On February 29, 2020 at 6:04 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (AXU) Alexco Divests Subsidiary Environmental Business AEG

        by @newswire on 18 Feb 2020

        “Alexco Resource Corp. (AXU) today announced that it has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement for the sale of Alexco Environmental Group, to AEG’s Executive Management led by Jim Harrington, AEG President. Under the terms of the Agreement, AEG Management purchased all of the shares of AEG in consideration for payment to Alexco of $13.35 million. On closing of the transaction, AEG Management paid $12.1 M in cash, with the balance of $1.25 M payable pursuant to a promissory note that matures on February 14, 2021.”

        https://ceo.ca/@newswire/alexco-divests-subsidiary-environmental-business-aeg

        • On March 1, 2020 at 7:17 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Monarch Gold is an interesting Gold developer that has really sold off and looks like intriguing value. I don’t own it, but used to, but didn’t like them putting the two producing mines on standby (that they picked up from Richmont before they were acquired). They decided to go back to the drawing board on exploration and development and I figured it would be a long drawn out process that would not help attract shareholders until they had a better plan.

          So far that is precisely what has played out, but they are making headway, and are doing a good job with their strategy. New was just out that they acquired even more land to explore on, so we’ll see where that goes.

          Monarch may get a rerating higher in the next upcycle in metals prices, especially if they can get a short timeline to get one of their mines and processing centers back into production. I’ve considered rotating over into them if I have a big win with one of my other developers. So far I like the developers I hold more (like Minera Alamos, Sabina Gold & Silver, Mako Mining, Pure Gold, Orezone, Treasury Metals, Bonterra, Balmoral, West Kirkland, Falco).

          Still, if one of those gets taken over or hits it big, I may shave off some funds and get a position going in Monarch again and an optionality play on future production.
          ________________________________________________________

          (MQR) (MRQRF)Monarch Gold Increases the Size of McKenzie Break by Acquiring 124 New Mineral Claims

          27 Feb 2020

          https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/monarch-gold-increases-the-size-of-mckenzie-break-by

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:10 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (NEE) (NHVCF) Northern Vertex Reports Second Fiscal Quarter 2020 Financial Results

      by @newswire on 28 Feb 2020

      Kenneth Berry, President and CEO, states: “During the quarter, the Company recorded revenue of $11.3 million, operating income before depreciation and depletion of $2.3 million and produced 7,131 gold ounces and 58,838 silver ounces. Although we achieved a second consecutive quarter of positive cashflow from operations, a reduction in production was experienced due to the implementation of a portable crusher during the first and second quarters which eliminated the stockpile of oversized material caused by drilling and blasting practices. This was necessary to better reconcile mined to modeled ounces to pad and thus better understand and control dilution. Importantly, improvements in several areas of production, has resulted in the Company stacking a record 12,043 contained gold ounces and 205,649 contained silver ounces, which positions the Company for strong production in future quarters.”

      https://www.northernvertex.com/news-releases/2020/northern-vertex-reports-second-fiscal-quarter-2020-financial-results/

      • On February 29, 2020 at 6:12 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Northern Vertex (NEE) looks like another good value at present levels as a somewhat newer Gold producer with improving fundamentals at their mine & production metrics.

    • On March 2, 2020 at 2:57 am,
      Thomas says:

      Silver miners are probably not a good choice at the moment, because most of them are base metal related. Better I look for a Gold bargain -:-)

      • On March 2, 2020 at 10:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Again, it all depends on one’s time frame. I added a few Silver positions on Friday that are up 3-6% today, but in the next few weeks there may be a bit more pressure, but in the medium to longer term, they sure look like deep value beyond most of the Gold stocks. It depends on the actual Silver and Gold stocks being compared of course.

  18. On February 29, 2020 at 10:29 am,
    Dragonite says:

    As a person with family members still in China, I can share some of my views. This is a extremely infectious disease and yet having much higher death rate than flu. I don’t think it can wipe out a nation but it is strong enough to create fear and damage to the economy. The government can choose to ignore it as in US or deal with drastic measures as in China. Without medical help, the disease may kill off 5-10% percentage of the population and the rest develop immune mechanism to it. If the drastic measure is taken like in China, the economy will be hit hard. A lot of workers stayed home for a few weeks. Only starting middle of February, people with non-essential service returned to work. The essential service never stopped, opposite to western media reported. The supply of electricity, medicine and food is normal and the stuff actually gets cheaper. The medical service has been on overdrive. Tens of thousands doctors and nurses from other provinces were airlifted to the infected cities. Thousands of anti-biological warfare troops were also mobilized. It is very touching that so many doctors and nurse sacrificed themselves and showed extreme dedication. They have the the choice not to go but they went to front-line voluntarily. The good thing is that once the disease is controlled, the loss on the human life can be small. Wearing a mask is extremely effective. Early prevention and isolation of communities is also very important. The worst hit cities have proportionally high infection rate and death rate due to delayed action. The rest of the country is only hit by the fear. China has suffered 2800 deaths and 70,000 diagnosed with the disease. In a country of 1.4 billion, it is minimal. However, if China let it spread, it could kill millions of people and could throw the country into chaos, one scenario the government can not afford.

    It appears that the disease has been contained and the country is returning to normal. But the Chinese economy has been hit hard.It will impact rest of the world since China is on the other end of the supply chain.

    Next few months will be crucial since US has not tested many people and a lot of them were suspected as flu patients and sent home. This disease is very hard to test since routine test can discover only 30% of the patients and it is very expensive in US and freee in China. In a few cities in Hubei Province, the government has ordered the mandatory tests for millions of people. Additional diagnose is CT scan and it is also very expensive too. Unless the US government want to let summer to kill the virus, the cost has to be reduced dramatically. Most of the people can not afford it and some of them will die quietly and spread the disease at mean time.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 11:45 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Thanks for sharing……..appreciate……Dragonite

    • On February 29, 2020 at 6:00 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Good comments Dragonite.

    • On February 29, 2020 at 8:43 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      Dragonite, how do you think this virus originated?

      • On February 29, 2020 at 11:23 pm,
        Dragonite says:

        I have no faintest idea. There are a lot of rumors ranging from bats to biological warfare. The original thought was that it was from bats. However, some Chinese bio-scientists concluded that the trace found in bats can not mutate into the current virus.

        • On March 1, 2020 at 4:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Both bat & pig DNA is very closely related to human DNA and so there is the potential that dung or contaminated food from one of those open markets allowed it to morph, or that it was engineered purposely in a way that allows it to be studied on humans and it got out into the public.

          There was a movie from 2011 called “Contagion” with a good cast (Matt Damon, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet) that has a worldwide pandemic virus that started in China and it spread from a bat, to a pig, and then to humans.

          This whole Coronavirus thing is playing out so similarly to that movie from a decade ago, that it is very eerie (bordering on contrived).

          Here is how the virus begins in the movie Contagion:

          “In China, days before Beth is infected, a bulldozer knocks down a tree, disturbing some bats. One flies over a pig pen and drops a piece of banana, which is eaten by a pig. The pigs are slaughtered and prepared by a chef who shakes hands with Beth in the casino, transferring the virus to her.”

          • On March 1, 2020 at 4:56 am,
            Excelsior says:
          • On March 1, 2020 at 6:47 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Interesting………seems they always warn us as to what they plan……
            Maybe, so they can gauge the effectiveness on the crowd…..jmo

          • On March 1, 2020 at 7:17 am,
            Ozibatla says:

            Ive seen this film before and it does have some similarities as to how the current coronavirus epidemic is playing out. In fact one of Australias main free to air TV channels only had it on last week (coincidence, I think not). I actually liked the movie. Lets hope the end result of coronavirus doesnt follow the same plot as what was seen on Contagion.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 7:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. I just watched the film again last week after not having seen it since it came out in 2011. It almost seems as if the current events are following the script of that film.

          • On March 1, 2020 at 7:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Contagion – Movie Trailer (2011)

            https://youtu.be/I5VfNKCQF60?t=1

          • On March 1, 2020 at 11:17 am,
            Dragonite says:

            This Wuhan virus is really hard to trace its origin. One big factor is that Wuhan hosted the largest world military sport game in October 16-27, where thousands of athletes from many countries participated and around a quarter of million volunteers served in the game. Millions of people gathered in the stadiums. Wuhan is also famous for its food and tourism. There were many events involved the athletes. So everything is possible.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

          • On March 1, 2020 at 11:20 am,
            Covid Kid says:

            Cue dual citizen Rshm Emanuel, “Never let a crisis go to waste.”

    • On March 1, 2020 at 1:20 am,
      Argentum says:

      You say the disease may kill of 5 – 10% of the population. Where do you get your information from? It’s already clear that there are people who had the virus but hardly had any problems or symptoms from it. that number could be closer to 1,4% – 2%.

  19. On February 29, 2020 at 10:35 am,
    Dragonite says:

    the word “proportionally” should be “dis-proportionally”, the spell checking seems automatically changed it.

  20. On February 29, 2020 at 10:44 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks for the show KER. All I can say is ouch!

      • On February 29, 2020 at 10:58 am,
        Charles says:

        Good one Ex! Cheers!

        • On February 29, 2020 at 2:06 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Cheers!

          • On February 29, 2020 at 4:59 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On February 29, 2020 at 6:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Wow!! Almost had a mind melt to that one.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 8:34 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Sorry about that!

          • On March 1, 2020 at 5:28 am,
            Excelsior says:

            🤯

    • On February 29, 2020 at 10:53 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, thanks Cory for another great week of interview and weekend show.

      I particularly liked the interview with Matt Geiger and resonated with the milestones he keeps tabs on with companies to see if they are on track, or if there are problems simmering under the surface. Really good comments around that topic.

      • On February 29, 2020 at 11:01 am,
        Charles says:

        Agree on Matt Geiger. I liked his thought processes on many fronts.

        • On February 29, 2020 at 2:08 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          He’s a sharp guy and after listening to about a dozen of his interviews over the years, mostly on Palisade, but recently here at the KER I feel like he is kindred spirit in how he views the bull market in Gold that started the end of 2015, his expectations for the Silver & Uranium markets recovering, and his practical approach to Base metals and Energy metals. It is always good to get Matt’s perspectives.

  21. On February 29, 2020 at 10:45 am,
    Charles says:
    • On February 29, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
      SilverDollar says:

      Excellent interview. Things will definitely get interesting if Oliver’s thoughts materialize!

    • On February 29, 2020 at 3:40 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I think Oliver completely nailed the situation.

  22. On February 29, 2020 at 12:12 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    I generally appreciate what Trader Vic says and how he says it. This week though he strayed into the virus discussion with a statement that it doesn’t grow in hot climates! Wish Cory would have asked him to back that up. First I’ve heard of any climate differences affecting it and I have been following Chris Martenson who I believe to be about tops in the discussion of the virus so far! JMO
    Here’s his latest update: https://youtu.be/wsJCiZTt3uc

    • On February 29, 2020 at 3:19 pm,
      CaliJoe says:

      Flu and coronaviruses as a collection of proteins and lipids. They pass from person to person via physical contact, but they can also exist on hard surfaces. Some suggest it’s closer quarters—to escape the cold weather, people cluster indoors, where human-to-human transmission becomes more likely. Probably why northern latitudes see an uptick in flu cases during winter
      These viruses do subside in warmer months though. Perhaps why, India, with its relatively warmer weather has not seen a single case.

      • On March 1, 2020 at 9:18 am,
        SilverDollar says:

        Thank you for the input. Makes sense and may be a bit of reprieve for some parts of Africa whose healthcare systems are not as developed as many other areas.

  23. On February 29, 2020 at 3:18 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Why Are Stocks And Gold Both Under so much selling pressure?

    Gary Wagner – February 28, 2020 #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

    https://thegoldforecast.com/video/why-are-stocks-and-gold-both-under-so-much-selling-pressure

    • On February 29, 2020 at 3:20 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (2/28/2020)

      Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Dollar

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQCw4VCi4WY

      • On February 29, 2020 at 3:35 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        This Is Now Starting To Look More Like An 87 Crash Scenario

        SmartMoneyTracker – Feb 27, 2020 #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

        https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2020/02/this-is-now-starting-to-look-more-like-an-87-crash-scenario.html

        • On February 29, 2020 at 3:45 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Precious Metals: Candlesticks Of Pain

          Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals

          Feb 28, 2020 – #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #Video

          http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt022820.html

          • On February 29, 2020 at 4:05 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            I “think” we are close to 200 week moving averages for both GDX and GDXJ. If market recovers next week and sells off like Gary Savage is predicting, there could be more pain for above mining indices.

            I’m watching Barrick, if it falls down to $16-17 range, its probably time accumulate big.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 4:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            You could very well be spot on regarding the 200 week MAs, but I’m interested to see if there is a brief relief rally, if only for two days or so before heading down a bit lower and exhausting the selling. If not, the JNUG position I put on late Friday will need to be ejected, but I’m still looking for a quick pop recovery in some of the more prominent Gold & Silver stocks earlier next week. If not, I’ll need to take evasive action.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 4:31 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            If another panic “repo” injection occurs Sunday night/Monday morning, everything will open higher. I think you will be rewarded big time with JNUG.

          • On February 29, 2020 at 4:56 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On February 29, 2020 at 5:06 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            CaliJoe – good point on the repo injection and thanks.

            The FED has hinted it may cut rates soon, and just that anticipation may provide a brief relief rally.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 10:55 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I ended up trading out of JNUG for a 14% gain. It may well trend up more later this week, but I’m happy with that gain for 1 day of trading.

            In addition my plan is to look at where things go over the next few days, and if there is any further weakness then I may reposition in JNUG for a medium duration hold in rebounding miners. Right now moving that gain to cash on the sideline seems like the more prudent thing to do, as I deployed other cash into individual miners on Friday (which are also up 3-6% on the day) and I’d still like a little dry powder just in case.

    • On March 1, 2020 at 7:41 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Ed van der Walt @EdVanDerWalt

      “So, a few people dm’ed me to ask about gold’s sell-off as risk assets came under pressure at the tail end of last week. For those who weren’t watching, it spiked to $1,690/oz on Monday, only to pull back to $1,580 by Friday even with markets starting to do things they haven’t done since the global financial crisis.”

      “First, let’s look at who WEREN’T selling gold. Global ETF investors didn’t sell. They added eight tons to the biggest stockpile in hostory. Nor were off-exchange retail investors sellers. Friends at @BullionVault had their busiest week since Trump was elected, with most action on the buyside.”
      “There was selling in the recycling market as this excellent piece by @helloimjustina (and others) show. But that market is too small to swing the pendulum. “

      “From CFTC data, we can see that through Tuesday, hedge funds and other money managers were well-behaved. But it doesn’t tell us what they were doing later in the week. And it’s significant that their pace of purchases slowed even going into the 7-year high price.”

      “Given the big volume on Comex last week – eyeballing the lower chart, it looks like a record to me – it would appear most of the action was in the futures market.”

      https://twitter.com/EdVanDerWalt/status/1233800807264530432

      • On March 1, 2020 at 8:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        #Gold’s Volatility Emptying Jewelry Boxes In A Wild Selling Spree

        Bloomberg News | March 1, 2020

        “Old gold sales always jump when prices rise, but “we’ve never seen a surge like this,” said Tobina Kahn, the president of House of Kahn Estate Jewelers in Chicago, where jewelry assessment bookings this week alone were up 12% over the average.”

        https://www.mining.com/web/golds-volatility-emptying-jewellery-boxes-in-a-wild-selling-spree/

        • On March 2, 2020 at 1:52 am,
          Excelsior says:

          ICA Creates Global Standard For Responsible #Copper
          Mining.com – February 27, 2020

          “Copper has gained a reputation as the material of our future, and with countries doubling down on their eco-efforts, demand is set to spike in the coming years. Holding such powerful sway over the global energy sector, the need to legitimise the metal’s supply chain has never been more urgent.”

          https://www.mining.com/ica-creates-global-standard-for-responsible-copper/

  24. On February 29, 2020 at 5:51 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining Initiates 9,500 Metre Drill Program At It’s Tilt Cove and Point Rousse Projects

    27 Feb 2020

    “The Winter Exploration Program will comprise a combination of 8,000 metres of diamond drilling and 1,500 metres of percussion drilling…”

    https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/anaconda-mining-initiates-9500-metre-drill-program

  25. On February 29, 2020 at 6:51 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Tough week for all the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a little more sell off of markets at the beginning of next week and then a reflex rally. I’m concerned that the general markets could be at the beginning of sometime more severe over time. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the gold market just yet. The sell off currently is limited. I was tempted on sticking my toe in the the PM markets but will be cautious here since some support levels have been compromised. There’s no hurry here; be patient and let the stocks consolidate in order to have a better picture of when to purchase. We have more weeks in this intermediate cycle and I have a feeling that the end of March might be optimal to purchase. What happened this week is a prime example of why it’s always important to have some significant cash on hand. There are going to be some unbelievable opportunities in the near future. You then have to hold your nose and purchase. I don’t believe you’ll regret it 2 years from now.

    • On March 1, 2020 at 9:30 am,
      SilverDollar says:

      You’re so correct about the cash on hand thought. Wish I had more available but one really never knows when to back up the truck. Maybe never!

  26. On March 1, 2020 at 7:09 am,
    BDC says:

    It’s best to treat trades as 50/50 propositions,
    no matter how good they may seem ‘logically’.
    None of us know the future with certitude.
    Trends can be noted, but will end.
    Flip the coin at the right time, but use stops.

  27. On March 1, 2020 at 12:56 pm,
    Matthew says:

    IPT finished the week 26% off of Friday’s low, right where it was just two weeks ago:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31286763309&a=724668826

  28. On March 1, 2020 at 1:06 pm,
    Matthew says:

    This CDE chart is unaltered since I posted it on the 24th:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p91069429343&a=723442918

  29. On March 1, 2020 at 1:13 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    Hey Matthew, if prices in the near future develop with Silver anything near the targets that Michael Oliver suggested, what range of price would you expect out of a miner like IPT?

    • On March 1, 2020 at 1:46 pm,
      SilverDollar says:

      Anybody read this piece from Mish? Talk about stupidity/incompetence in the CDC and FDA and current administration. No wonder people are worried about the virus….

    • On March 1, 2020 at 2:07 pm,
      Matthew says:

      A pop to the $19 area that Oliver talked about would probably take IPT to .76-ish (the 600 week MA) but the $30 that he mentioned is much harder to call, at least for me. So I’ll be conservative (I think) and guess that the long-standing P&F price objective of $3.50 would be reached easily. That implies more leverage than we’ve seen lately but less than we enjoyed in 2016.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=0&id=p72484131640&a=691025615

      • On March 1, 2020 at 2:10 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Important speed line support held at .355 but it could get retested…
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p46398716924&a=706514079

      • On March 1, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Btw & fwiw, IPT saw its highest weekly volume since the 2011 top making it the second highest ever.

      • On March 1, 2020 at 2:29 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Impact Silver (IPT.V) Site Tour Feb. 2020

        Greg Nolan – March 1, 2020 – featured on Equity Guru

        “If one was to stand in the middle of the tiny aldea surrounding Impact Silver’s (IPT.V) Guadalupe Production Center and lob a stone in any direction, chances are you’d hit silver-rich rock—that was my impression anyway, having recently visited the company’s district-scale foothold in a region with an epic history of silver mining.”

        “Impact has been in production for over a decade producing some 9.5M ounces of the metal, equal to roughly $175M in revenue. The company has these epithermal vein structures dialed in.”

        “Though the short term is uncertain, keep in mind that these broad market shakeouts can be a catalyst for the mobilization of funds back into the junior arena.”

        https://equity.guru/2020/03/01/impact-silver-ipt-v-site-tour-feb-2020/

  30. On March 1, 2020 at 3:35 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The USDX finished right at fork support but I doubt it will hold. It is bearish for the dollar that it is falling with stocks.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p86436578941&a=639428811

  31. On March 1, 2020 at 3:37 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Priced in real money, the Dow topped 18 months ago and is down 27%:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04994123137&a=724700888

    • On March 1, 2020 at 3:42 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Q1 2020 brought Dow:Gold its first quarterly MACD sell signal since early 2001.

      • On March 1, 2020 at 5:22 pm,
        CaliJoe says:

        Gold spiked in futures market. I have a feeling this was a huge scare tactic played by bullion banks and da boyz to steal shares for cheap.

        • On March 1, 2020 at 6:26 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Ditto……………how in the heck……are they going to cover $124 TRILLION IN WORLD WIDE DEBT…end game coming close….

          • On March 1, 2020 at 10:12 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            By kicking the can abit more. Not sure how much more of that they got left however.

        • On March 1, 2020 at 6:39 pm,
          Matthew says:

          The action is definitely not nearly as bearish as most people think. When even GDX gapped up 3.6% into an overbought RSI(14) reading on Monday, that was all she wrote. There’s nothing like a giant gap to break momentum.
          Huge money has a real problem entering such a tiny sector and nothing helps it out like longs panicking and traders of all types selling and going short.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p52421086575&a=724732716

          • On March 1, 2020 at 6:43 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I should have said, there’s nothing like back-to-back giant gaps to break momentum. Then throw in a cratering stock market and down she goes. A pure opportunity for anyone with cash.

  32. On March 1, 2020 at 6:04 pm,
    Charles says:

    I agree CaliJoe. But I would be surprised if the downside move was complete IMO.

  33. On March 1, 2020 at 6:18 pm,
    buzz says:

    I suppose buying gold & silver is more affordable now. Can John Q. Investor emerge from shellshocked state?

    • On March 1, 2020 at 6:47 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Probably not. I knew a guy years ago who never owned stocks again after the crash of ’87. He missed the entire run to the 2000 top.

  34. On March 1, 2020 at 7:05 pm,
    Charles says:

    Hey Matthew – What do you think of this spinout by Yamana?

    Yamana Gold: Announced the Sale of Its Royalty Portfolio for Total Consideration of $65 Million, creating a New Royalty Company, and Unlocking Further Value by Continuing the Execution of Its Portfolio Optimization Strategy. The company, Guerrero Ventures (will change name to Nomad Royalty Corp). Guerrero is acquiring two royalty portfolio’s, one from Yamana Gold for $65m and another from Orion Resource Partners for total consideration of $268m. Yamana’s portfolio of assets being sold under the transaction include:

    · 1% NSR on the RDM gold miner (owned and operated by Equinox Gold)

    · 2% NSR on oxide production from Gualcamayo once it producers 275k oz. Au

    · 1.5% NSR on production the deep carbonates project (DCP) at Gualcamayo

    · $30m cash receivable upon declaration of commercial production at DCP

    · 2% NSR from the Suruca project in Brazil.

    The Orion Portfolio will include:

    · A Gold stream on the Blyvoor gold mine current under construction in South Africa

    · Gold Stream on the operating Bonikro gold mine in Cote d’Ivoire

    · Silver Stream on the commissioning Woodlawn zinc-copper mine in Australia

    · Silver Stream on the operating Mercedes mine in Sonora Mexico

    · A Silver Stream on the operating South Arturo Gold mine in Nevada

    · Gold deliveries under a goal loan made to Premier Gold Mines

    • On March 1, 2020 at 8:04 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I think it’s a good move to maximize the value of those assets. The $45M stake the company keeps is sure to appreciate very significantly as gold goes higher.
      Why hide such (relatively) low risk assets in a big miner anyway?

      • On March 2, 2020 at 7:15 am,
        Charles says:

        Yes I agree it is a good move for Yamana.

    • On March 1, 2020 at 11:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Charles – interesting find on that Nomad Royal Corp spinout from Yamana. Now one of the other Royalty companies (like Sandstorm, Maverix, or Metalla will set their sites on acquiring/merging with it down the road for a consolidation of royalties). Very interestings and likely a wise move by Yamana to highlight those assets separately.

      • On March 2, 2020 at 2:47 am,
        Charles says:

        Thanks Ex. I didn’t see much in that group of assets that looked that exciting that one of the other Roalty companies would be interested in.What am I missing?

        • On March 2, 2020 at 10:58 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Hi Charles – Most successful royalty companies end up having dozens, or even hundreds of royalties in their portfolios eventually (like Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Sandstorm). The smaller royalty players like Maverix, Metalla, Sailfish, Golden Vallley / Abitibi Royalties, EMX royalties, may take over a company like Nomad just to pad down their portfolios of existing companies. Either than or maybe Nomad plans to do the reverse and take over one of those companies. It’s an eat or get eaten type of subsector.

  35. On March 1, 2020 at 8:30 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The overseas markets are all up, Hong Kong, Nikkei, and Shanghai, all green! DT

    • On March 2, 2020 at 8:05 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Dead cat bounce…….ya think…..?

      • On March 2, 2020 at 1:05 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Man what a day…………..up , up , up……..and away……posted monday…..after a big freaking sell off……..these are notes for the KER HISTORY, in ten years you will look back, and laugh……maybe…… 🙂

  36. On March 1, 2020 at 9:01 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold finished last week 50 cents above its September high and 59 cents above its 55 day ema…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p22194578218

  37. On March 2, 2020 at 8:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    My broker shows short restrictions for 5 out of the 6 major pm mining stock ETFs so there’s no doubt a lot of short covering right now. Dumb money that sold Friday’s low allowed smart money to cover and is now paying the price.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10540429170&a=724328673

  38. On March 2, 2020 at 8:45 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Well I’m finally an impact silver holder. Took the recent sell off as an opportunity to get some.

    • On March 2, 2020 at 11:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Welcome aboard Wolfster, and good strategy. Check out the post above from Greg’s site visit to Impact Silver, as it was very well done.

      I’ve been in IPT since 2016 and have traded it dozens of times, but I have high expectations on it’s performance in 2020 and 2021 and it is starting to get more recognition from investors and has more Newsletters (Equity Guru + Brien Lundin’s Gold newsletter + Christopher Aaron’s iGold Advisor, etc…) following it now that any time in the last few years.

  39. On March 2, 2020 at 9:24 am,
    Charles says:

    At least we are all in the same boat together. Of all my silver charts, Impact looks like it is in the best shape. I could see it drifting down until the Fed meeting later this month, but with the IMF and World Bank saber rattling, it could take off sooner than that. New world currency perhaps complete with a significant devaluation of dollar? We are definitely living in interesting times.