Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 2 Mar, 2020

Big rebound across the board today but it’s not an all clear to put your money back to work

Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the rebound in everything from US markets to gold. After the month end books squaring from last week traders are playing the swing. This does not mean that the worst is over however.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with his newsletter.

View related posts on: , , ,

  1. On March 2, 2020 at 10:21 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Well, so far the JNUG trade I made on Friday worked out nicely for a quick scalp of 14% for me, so glad I had that money working. Also the other positions I started late on Friday in the medium size market cap Gold & Silver miners have worked out as they are all up about 3-6% on the day. It isn’t an all clear by any stretch, and things could also still roll over, but adding to positions into the carnage on Friday wasn’t buying the top by any stretch either, and was a good value proposition.

    • On March 2, 2020 at 10:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      However, the biggest winner of the day in my portfolio has been my (BAR) Balmoral Resources position up about 64% on the day. I’ve sold some of it into the strength and am debating what to do with the rest of it, as I like the idea of a combined Balmoral/Wallbridge company.


      (WM) Wallbridge Mining Company Limited and (BAR) Balmoral Resources Ltd. to Combine in an All-Stock Transaction, Creating a Formidable and Well Financed Canadian Exploration & Development Company with a Dominant Land Position along the Detour Gold Trend in Quebec

      by @nasdaq on 2 Mar 2020

      • On March 2, 2020 at 11:13 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I took some of my (BAR) Balmoral Resources profits and placed them over in (SMTS) Sierra Metals, since they are polymetallic as well and produce Silver, Zinc, Lead, Gold, and Copper, and seem under-rated compared to other producers with similar production profiles.


        (SMTS) (SMT) Sierra Metals – Corporate Presentation March 2020–Developers-Association-of-Canada-PDAC/default.aspx

      • On March 2, 2020 at 11:14 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Once the dust settles from this merger a bit, I may position back into the new combined wallbridge during any pullbacks, but it has already run pretty hard over the last year.

        • On March 2, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          While most of the market loves the Wallbridge / Balmoral merger, as evidences the move up in both stocks all day, there are always those that put out a bear case in any announced merger. I like to get all opinions and make up my own mind, and will post this bear case even though it misses much of the value of Balmoral.

          This writer over at Seeking Alpha, Taylor Dart, is notoriously bearish on many popular companies, so take his thesis with a grain of salt. He’s been duking it out with the Great Bear guys over at for some time and been wrong just as often as he’s been right, and has publicly been negative on a number of trending stocks, so that’s his shtick.

          Taylor’s main point in the linked missive is that Wallbridge overpaid for the defined ounces in the ground that Balmoral has delineated thus far, but there are ounces not included that initial resource estimate that BAR put out, there is huge value in the adjacent land to Area 52 and Wallbridge’s Fenelon property (that they acquired from Balmoral in the first place), and even more value in Balmoral’s other prospective land, peppered all over the Detour Lake Gold trend. In addition, Mr. Dart is giving them no value for Balmoral’s Grasset Nickel asset (which is a huge oversight as that is why many started following Balmoral years ago, before this gold narrative took off with Wallbridge’s big hits at Fenelon and the Detour Gold takeover by Kirkland Lake). Someone even asks him about the nickel resource down in the comments section and he brushes it off that if it had any value they would have already spun it out. That reaction is 100% BS because there is value there, and Balmoral has been debating spinning it out for a while, and it is listed as the main flagship on their website, but just doesn’t fit in with the prevailing gold narrative in the Detour Lake area play.

          Bottom line, I don’t agree with tunnel vision on only a price for the defined ounces in the ground that Wallbridge paid for Balmoral in Taylor’s critique (as he is short-changing the cumulative value of the ounces not in resource estimate, the other prospective land packages, and their Grasset Nickel asset as irrelevant). He is wrong about that, and obviously the Wallbridge team offered a value for all Balmoral’s assets, not just the gold ounces in the ground.

          Regardless, I do agree with Taylor that the new inflated share count, dilution to existing Wallbridge shareholders, and inflated market cap (which rivals many permitted and producing gold companies actually pulling metal out of the ground), may temporarily halt the advance in Wallbridge until all this is sorted out.

          This was a big reason why I sold most of my Balmoral position today, instead of letting it all get merged with Wallbridge, as I’ve felt WM has gotten a bit too far ahead of itself over the last 6 months, and needs to cool off a bit.


          Wallbridge Mining: A Hefty Price To Pay For Less Than One Million Ounces Of Gold

          Mar. 2, 2020 – Taylor Dart on Seeking Alpha

      • On March 2, 2020 at 6:40 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Eric Sprott Announces Support and Voting Agreement with Respect to the Proposed Plan of Arrangement Between Wallbridge Mining Company Limited and Balmoral Resources Ltd.

        2 Mar 2020

  2. On March 2, 2020 at 10:42 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MXSG) Mexus’ first significant production of gold at its Santa Elena mine announced

    by @nasdaq on 2 Mar 2020

    • On March 2, 2020 at 10:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      MXSG up 43% today on the news.

      • On March 2, 2020 at 10:48 am,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Nice announcement on the Wallbridge/Balmoral combination. I had a boatload of Balmoral and it’s a nice premium increase for their shares. Also, nibbled today and bought some of Ex’s favorite company, argonaut. There is no hurry since I believe we’re in for a consolidation of a lot of these PM company prices for awhile.

        • On March 2, 2020 at 11:08 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Nice Doc. Yes, the Wallbridge/Balmoral combination seems to be getting a warm reception from investors, and even WM is up today on the news, which is counter to the normal trend of the acquiring company selling off on the news. Their combined land package will be stellar with Kirkland Lake’s strategic interest, and Eric Sprott invested as a key stakeholder in all 3 companies.

          Yes, Argonaut is my largest Mid-tier Gold producer position at present, but much of my optimism is on them getting their massive Magino project into production in the next 2 years or so. It will be a game-changer for their production profile that is not being properly factored in by analysts that are only looking at quarter over quarter production metrics and missing the forest for the trees. There is 2+ million ounces of Gold in the proven/probable category, but another 4+ million ounces in the “measured and indicated” category… so 6+ Million more ounces there and obviously they are not done exploring even a piece of it yet.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 12:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Previously both K92 Mining and Equinox were larger positions, but I pulled profits on KNT when the P.N.G. jurisdiction concerns came up initially, and just recently got positioned again but with a smaller postions size. With Equinox I trimmed it back twice after the merger with Leagold news, (which is when Argonaut moved into 1st position with the mid-tier gold producer positions); but ultimately sold out of the remaining EQX position last week, to back stop some other positions that had pulled back so much.

            I still have nice positions in about a dozen other gold producers though, and just see Argonaut as a deeper value play here, considering it gave up it’s gains of last year, and has had a few obstacles to overcome, but has a very full pipeline of development and exploration projects that have me interested in it for the longer term.


        • On March 2, 2020 at 11:26 am,
          Thomas says:

          Argonaut is the only stock down on my watch list today?

          I like the projects from Argonaut, but not like the management performance
          Also management is not buying shares, even at times like now. That is not a good sign

          • On March 2, 2020 at 11:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The miners have only pulled back for 1week, so the fact that insiders haven’t bought yet isn’t that big of a concern to me. The vast majority of miners didn’t have insiders buy the last week. Also there are often blackout periods where officers can’t buy that may be unknown to retail speculators.

            I see a lot more gold miners down today than just Argonaut on my watchlists, and I wouldn’t judge it’s merits based just today’s trading.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 1:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (AR) Argonaut Gold Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial and Operating Results, Provides 2020 Production, Cost and Capital Guidance

            24 Feb 2020

            Pete Dougherty, President and CEO stated: “During 2019, we increased our consolidated Mineral Reserves by 48%, GEO production by 13% and grew our net cash position by over $26 million. As we look to 2020, we are improving operations to reduce our unit costs by processing run-of-mine versus crushed ore at El Castillo, optimizing overburden haul cycle distances and modifying processing parameters. While this will lead to slightly lower GEO production in 2020, we expect it will also lead to higher profitability and stronger cash flow.”


        • On March 2, 2020 at 11:56 am,
          Charles says:

          Hi Doc – Have you been adding any Novo down here. I realize it is a falling knife right here and will probably need to base for a month or more. I am really surprised it got back down to this level again. I sold half my position near the top and I am looking to add back at some point.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 12:59 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Charles, funny you mention that. I added just a “tad” last week. I’m afraid this correction is going to last some time and will be very patient in adding. As mentioned, there is no hurry to take positions here. The intermediate cycle is still in play well into spring for GDX.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 1:30 pm,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Doc. Just sitting on my hands right now waiting for the dust to settle.

    • On March 2, 2020 at 11:14 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      just another confirmation of a strong bull in the process…..CME stinks on the margin

      • On March 2, 2020 at 11:16 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, as mentioned on Friday’s blog and the Weekend show, it seemed like a snapback rally was in order for earlier this week, but the miners may still rollover and test support again over the next week or two, so I’ve raised a bit more cash today in some of my trading to be ready for that.

  3. On March 2, 2020 at 11:11 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Clobbered by the establishment…….Klobuchared……….

    • On March 2, 2020 at 11:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The Demo’s are circling their wagons around Biden with Pete, Tom, and Amy dropping out. They sure don’t want Bernie to be the front runner, but that will likely piss off his supporters, and if they stay home again, it won’t help their cause.

      “Following Tom Steyer and Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has become the latest Democratic primary candidate to end her campaign following Joe Biden’s first-place win in South Carolina.”

      • On March 2, 2020 at 11:54 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Biden and Bernie….and…….Hilly …..will try and sneak in at the last moment.

        • On March 2, 2020 at 11:56 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Don’t forget Bloomy buying his way in, and Warren firing up her collectivist cronies.

          • On March 2, 2020 at 1:13 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Bloomie is not going anywhere………the jews already have what they want….

        • On March 2, 2020 at 2:33 pm,
          David says:

          Sounds like Wall Street wants to stay running the White House as they have for 20+ years.

        • On March 2, 2020 at 2:34 pm,
          cfs says:
      • On March 2, 2020 at 12:44 pm,
        Mike says:

        Sadly the Dem Establishment would always prefer to loose than to loose control. So , I fear Excelsior is right. The power structure simply can’t get through its head that folks want change and Biden, a warmed over corporate hack, just doesn’t cut it.

        If the Dem Elites axe Berenie – watch out for the under vote in Nov, that’s the folks that don’t vote for a top of the ticket candidate but vote further down the ballot. This is all good news for the Donald.

        • On March 2, 2020 at 1:00 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Nobody votes for anyone……..they tell you…who you are going to vote for…..
          Electoral College…….bought and paid for in advance…….

  4. On March 2, 2020 at 12:17 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    I’ve noticed a couple different stories about the heavy scrap sales in gold taking place. Likely cash poor seniors.
    On Chris’s comments on the virus/health, don’t forget a large % of adults do have heart issues and the bigger issue is diabetes. Just sayin’. Don’t forget, it is NOT the flu. Far more deadly from what I’ve learned.

    • On March 2, 2020 at 1:02 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Yes, they are cashing in the jewels……..Millies… not want it……they want the cash..

  5. On March 2, 2020 at 1:07 pm,
    Covid Kid says:
    • On March 2, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Ha,Ha………..candlelight , in a strong wind………..

  6. On March 2, 2020 at 1:43 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Counting the extra 35 cents in after hours trading , SILJ is up 10.35% today…

  7. On March 2, 2020 at 2:27 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The 30 minute charts suggest an easy fill of the rest of Friday’s big down gap tomorrow.
    How the miners perform following that will give important info about what’s next. I think the odds are better than most expect that we’ve seen the lows.
    GDXJ daily:

  8. On March 2, 2020 at 3:28 pm,
    Bill says:

    Bounce happening in DOW ect for a day or 3 then retest lows then pos. bearish…. “A bearish turn in our Gold Trend Indicator may not be far off.” I agree

    • On March 3, 2020 at 10:41 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      What does your guy say about TUES Mar 3………… up big over $50 plus…..
      London choked …..$1649

      • On March 3, 2020 at 4:44 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I don’t think his guy had anything to say about today’s rally. 🙂

  9. On March 2, 2020 at 5:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    @Goldfinger – “1.08% on the 10-year note yield means that we are going to have sub-1% GDP growth this year, and probably/possibly negative growth. Fed is going to cut to .25% by July.”

    “Deflation and no/slow growth against a backdrop of massive debt/deficits globally means that central banks are going to do whatever it takes to make money as cheap as possible, and monetary policy as loose as possible.”

    “I could hardly conjure up a more bullish setup for #gold.”

    • On March 3, 2020 at 9:52 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Is One Of The Few Clear Things Right Now

      by @Goldfinger on 3 Mar 2020

      “While senior equity indices rallied hard yesterday, the junior mining sector was fairly mixed. The damage inflicted last week is the sort of stuff that leaves a mark, markets won’t repair this sort of technical damage for weeks/months. Of course, there is also the distinct possibility that the 10+ year equity bull run has reached its zenith and a bear market is just beginning.”

      “While my crystal ball is a bit foggy this morning, what I do know is that I couldn’t conjure up a much more bullish backdrop for gold. Gold still might get sold for 1-2 day periods during market liquidity panics (simply because it is a liquid market that is up year-to-date). However, strong disinflationary/deflationary forces working against a backdrop of massive global debt/deficits is the perfect recipe for global central banks to throw the kitchen sink at the situation while making the price of money as cheap as possible (think negative rates).”

      “I don’t know about you but I prefer taking my chances holding a gold bar as opposed to loaning money to a government at negative rates and being guaranteed of both a nominal and real loss on my money.”

      • On March 3, 2020 at 11:54 am,
        Matthew says:

        There’s an understatement…
        “Of course, there is also the distinct possibility that the 10+ year equity bull run has reached its zenith and a bear market is just beginning.”

        • On March 3, 2020 at 12:51 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Haha! for real. I believe Goldfinger is just being conservative because the bull market in the general equities has just kept going and going and going…. and every time folks think it has topped out, it recovers and blazes higher.

  10. On March 2, 2020 at 7:17 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    Here’s Rick Rule on bnn today

    • On March 2, 2020 at 7:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Great minds think alike Wolfster! I had just posted Rick Rules thoughts on Balmoral up above in this blog.

      BTW – I wrote you back on the weekend show regarding finally getting into Impact Silver. Welcome aboard my good man!

      • On March 2, 2020 at 7:53 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        Thanks Ex. I have to say I’m trading it with how nice the volatility is…hoping to get more below .40 but I might not be so lucky…I’m in Docs camp so to speak. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was one more major pullback before the next upleg begins…also got real lucky selling my xebec warrants before the big sell off. They expire in early July so glad to be out of them as the rng sector was way overbought

        • On March 2, 2020 at 8:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Well good trading to you in Impact, and nicely done on selling the warrants in the nick of time!

          Yeah, I could see the case for a bit more weakness in the PMs, but feel it may be more so a correction in time (with some more sideways channeling) than much more of a correction in price. If the gold and silver miners pull back too much more in price, than they did by Friday of last week, then I’ll need to pull some cash out of deep storage to throw at them, because we’d be approaching early 2016 levels in many names.

          I raised a little cash today, and redeployed some Balmoral funds into Sierra Metals, but I have about a dozen names I’d like to top off once we get confirmation the intermediate bottom is in for the PM sector. Until then….. Ever Upward!

          • On March 3, 2020 at 4:28 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Yeah I guess I’m looking more at the overall market pulling back more and PMs getting sucked down by that overall purge and that’s when the real bargains and rally for PMs will begin…….eventually gold can’t be held down

          • On March 3, 2020 at 8:10 am,
            Charles says:

            I tend to agree with Ex. that the low might be in and just sideways trading over the next month. A lot of the charts look like it was an extremely hard backtest of breakout points while others have carved new lows. But many of the new lows are coming at the end of long consolidation patterns and might just be the final shakeout before rocketing higher. Still, I didn’t sell much if anything when it went down and don’t really plan to buy anything until things become more clear.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 9:53 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Charles and that approach makes sense to me. I’m nibbling at a few things, have stockpiled a little dry powder from some winning trades, but mostly am in a “hold and wait” mode until there is more clarity about the PM trend.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 10:18 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I did finally get positioned back in (SILV) Silvercrest Metals again this week and figure at this point that they are a safe bet as a takeover target by one of the big boys. They are one of the most high quality Silver Explorers & Developers I’m aware of, and I owned them earlier in their trajectory, and have been off in many other Silver stocks, but figured, the time is getting near that someone is going to nab them and I feel that 40-60% premium will be a nice win when it comes. Honestly I hope they keep trucking higher on more stellar drill results first and then get taken over as the cherry on top.

            Cory had a great interview with them yesterday:



          • On March 3, 2020 at 1:16 pm,
            Charles says:

            That is a stock I have had my eye on lately, but haven’t bought any.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 4:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Their drill results have been stellar for years now, and they’ve got a large enough resource developed that I’m sure SSR Mining or First Majestic or Pan American are looking at their project as a long-life, high grade mine that could feed their operations for years.

            The economics – initial capex needed, IRR and payback period are ridiculously good:

            Las Chispas PEA* Potential Economics:
            After-tax NPV (5%): US$407M (Using US$16.68/oz Ag & US$1,269/oz Au)
            Initial Capex of US$100.5 M – IRR : 78 % – Payback : 9 months

  11. On March 2, 2020 at 7:20 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    Joe Mazumdar and Brent Cook on bnn

  12. On March 3, 2020 at 6:25 am,
    charles says:
  13. On March 3, 2020 at 7:55 am,
    Matthew says:

    Scorpio Gold Begins Underground Definition Drilling Campaign at Its Wholly Owned Goldwedge Project in Manhattan, Nevada

  14. On March 3, 2020 at 8:10 am,
    Matthew says:

    The move way above the gap is a good sign but a close above the important broken fork support on the following chart would be much better:

    • On March 3, 2020 at 8:12 am,
      Matthew says:

      Either way, the odds of a retest of the lows are slim, in my opinion. This has been nothing but what it seemed like: a shakeout and sentiment reset.
      XAU:DIA weekly:

      • On March 3, 2020 at 9:44 am,
        David says:

        Thanks Matthew. Good updates. I hope we have finally got to the point where even a blind monkey can pick a miner from a random list of possibilities. That’s when my retro skills kick in and I start feeling good about myself.

        • On March 3, 2020 at 10:05 am,
          Matthew says:

          David, I hope you held all or most of your positions. I get the feeling a lot of people got bucked from the bull (which is understandable but so painful). There is so much upside in this sector that blind monkeys should do as well as anyone if they can just hang on.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 10:23 am,
            David says:

            I am still in. Did rebalancing since Feb 25th, increasing 11, deleting 2, reducing probably more than 11. I am still vulnerable to TPTB, but I didn’t reduce interest rates after an emergency meeting. (This is second attempt as first response went to never-never land).

          • On March 3, 2020 at 10:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            That’s great, David. Now prepare for a very (probably VERY) good year!

  15. On March 3, 2020 at 9:49 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos Makes Change From Explorer To Producer In Q-3 2020

    Andrew Scott – 02 Mar 2020 #VIDEO interview

    “Minera Alamos (CVE: MAI) President Doug Ramshaw sat down with Andrew Scott at the large mining conference in Toronto PDAC. Minera Alamos is a gold development company poised to join the ranks of gold producers in 2020.”

    • On March 3, 2020 at 10:03 am,
      David says:

      Great news and timely from Minera. The last two days have been fairly good for my miners starting in “m” : Minera, Minaurum, Millrock, Mako.. Metallic needs to get with the “m” program. Maybe didn’t get the memo.

      • On March 3, 2020 at 10:21 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Haha! Yes. Add Mexus to that list up 100% in the last 2 days.

        Yes, I don’t know what the deal is with Metallic selling off so hard, as they have a number of constructive exploration programs in the works.

        Mako and Minera Alamos have been doing great though. McEwen and Mandalay are also bouncing back today. I don’t own Millrock or Minaurum, but know a lot of folks are animated by their recent exploration campaigns as well.

        Go M’s!!

        • On March 3, 2020 at 10:29 am,
          David says:

          Read something about Mexus recently and blew on by it without thinking about it. Missed that one. Good call Ex.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 10:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            They finally got their act together in Mexico and got into Gold production. The market has been waiting on this news.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 10:52 am,
            Excelsior says:

            They’re still very high risk, but with a micro-cap producer it doesn’t take much to move the needle in the share price.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 11:06 am,
            David says:

            Just briefly looked at Mexus and saw 600mil+ shares on front page. That probably chased me away…

          • On March 3, 2020 at 11:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! Yes, that’s a lot of shares, but Wallbridge will have the same amount after the merger with Balmoral.

            I’m more interested in the market cap than share count, andMexus could easily go up 600% even with 600M shares.

        • On March 3, 2020 at 11:38 am,
          Excelsior says:

          It is probably the riskiest stock I hold.

          • On March 3, 2020 at 8:51 pm,
            David says:

            Can’t beat the share price…beer money on the line…

  16. On March 3, 2020 at 10:12 am,
    Matthew says:
  17. On March 3, 2020 at 10:28 am,
    Matthew says:

    SPY:GLD took back broken support this morning but it didn’t last and that’s a bad sign following a big plunge and a half-point rate cut…

  18. On March 3, 2020 at 10:30 am,
    Matthew says:

    Mining stocks are going to melt up versus conventional stocks: