Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 9 Mar, 2020

Oil Crashing and OPEC+ Fighting, This Could Be A Huge Issue For Markets Everywhere

Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the news that broke late Sunday regarding the Saudi-Russia alliance collapsing. Oil prices are being crushed and the rush to cash is hitting pretty much everything across the board.

This could easily take fears to another level over the Coronavirus and get the central banks acting aggressively sooner rather than later.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with his markets thoughts and trades.

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Comments:
  1. On March 9, 2020 at 9:37 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Just when shale and fracking…..is about to go belly up……….oil gets cheap…..hummm

    • On March 9, 2020 at 9:38 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Replay of the 70’s except in reverse…….?

    • On March 9, 2020 at 9:38 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      This time maybe you can blame it on The (REDS) Russians! DT

      • On March 9, 2020 at 9:44 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Cincinnati baseball team might have to change it’s name…….to Russian Nots……

        • On March 9, 2020 at 7:46 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Ha! I lived in Cincy for a few years, and hit a few reds games. Let’s blame it all on Pete Rose. 🙂

          • On March 10, 2020 at 5:38 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Pete and Donald, ….will be going into the Hall Of Blame……… 🙂

    • On March 9, 2020 at 9:43 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      From all the reports I read, shale oil is dying. The big names are headed to offshore drilling. Sure oil can/will remain weak for some time here but stocks are behaving like world doesn’t need oil anymore.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 9:47 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        One of those big scams…….shale oil……..political scam as well…….
        History will show…….we have plenty of oil…..and energy all over the place.
        Start with a history lesson starting in 1900……even do a Henry Ford take on ethanol and oil…….This is a SCAM………..

        • On March 9, 2020 at 6:55 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Henry Ford also was a fan of Hemp Oil to power vehicles and we got plenty of that as well.

          • On March 10, 2020 at 5:40 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex……Ditto………there is a lot to the story……Big Oil…..put the screws to the farmers and inventors….I wish more people understood….the real story….

          • On March 10, 2020 at 9:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed, Big Oil has bullied politicians to push certain policies from the get go. Hemp Oil burned cleaner and was more cost effective, but didn’t fit the tycoons business model.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 7:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s a telling and funny pricing graphic on 2 different types of Oil products:

        https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cdn.ceo.ca/1f6dpcd-38DAA454-7557-4F41-80B0-359F5D3A2FBD.jpeg

    • On March 9, 2020 at 8:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Bar Chart showing Oil Production Costs by Country:

      (there are a number that can operate in the $8-$30 range, but unfortunately the US can’t).

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESqhO-tUEAEKZQa?format=jpg&name=small

      • On March 9, 2020 at 8:28 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Russia Says It Can Weather $25 Oil For Up To 10 Years

        Mon, 03/09/2020

        “While we hope to get an answer on both Saudi and US shale longevity shortly, and once the market reprices shale junk bonds sharply lower, we expect the US shale patch to soon become a ghost town as money-losing US producers will not be solvent with oil below $30, assuring that millions in supply will soon be pulled from the market, moments ago we got the answer as far as Russia is concerned, when its Finance Ministry said on Monday that the country could weather oil prices of $25 to 30$ per barrel for between six and 10 years.”

        https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-says-it-can-weather-25-oil-10-years

  2. On March 9, 2020 at 9:40 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    Morning open was the best opportunity to buy “dirt cheap” oil stocks. They have risen 8-9 percent since then.

  3. On March 9, 2020 at 9:53 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Really appreciate the discussion and both you guys sharing your knowledge of the oil patch (Occidental, Marathon, etc.). Learned a lot! Thanks.

  4. On March 9, 2020 at 9:59 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Chris: Who does the Fed seek permission from/ Congress as a whole? I can’t see Gold Screaming when they attempt this. And do you think they will get permission easily?

  5. On March 9, 2020 at 10:05 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    can, not can’t with gold

  6. On March 9, 2020 at 10:05 am,
    Temple says:

    Would have to double-check…but I believe it’s Congress that would have to broaden their mandate as to what kinds of market activity/asset purchases they can engage in overtly.

    Gold would scream higher if they fail, and things REALLY implode. What would make gold plod higher…but also be a bullish environment for mining stocks and other commodities to various degrees…is if they do have broader such authority, re-launch more aggressive QE, etc. Adding a big infrastructure/reflation program would help more broadly, too.

    • On March 9, 2020 at 7:01 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      A few years back everyone was very constructive on a large scale infrastructure project, but we haven’t heard very much about it in a while, and I was thinking that was going to be a major talking point in this election. Really both sides of the aisle seemed to be in favor of it, so it seems like a deal for the first wave of it could have been brokered quite some time ago. Now, where the funds are going to come from…? Well, that’s a different question.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        If we do get word of that large infrastructure plan, it will finally be the time for commodities to shine.

  7. On March 9, 2020 at 10:12 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Hope gas……….goes down to a .99c ……or .25c…….lol

    • On March 9, 2020 at 10:19 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      DITTO on gold………CT……….I agree………phyz…..
      The chickens have come home, finally…….should have happened 7 yrs ago…
      .Long term thinking………..Think ahead……not like sheep……

      • On March 9, 2020 at 10:24 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        CT…….do not disagree with your thinking…..concerning stocks and phyz silver….jmo

        • On March 9, 2020 at 10:27 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Young adults……..should be looking at silver phyz………..in 30 yrs……they will be real happy they did………JMO

          • On March 9, 2020 at 10:30 am,
            b says:

            30 yrs until a payoff might be the case.

          • On March 9, 2020 at 11:40 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Best advice for the Millies…….stop buy a cup of star bucks everyday, and by a piece of silver instead……..then in 30 yrs., you will own the coffee shop…..lol

          • On March 9, 2020 at 11:40 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            by to buy…..

          • On March 9, 2020 at 7:06 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            OOTB that is sound advice but I doubt the Millies will stop drinking their pumpkin lattes and in stead save up to buy an ounce of silver each week. However, if they did, you are correct that in 30 years they’d own the coffee shop.

            We need to get you a campaign to start teaching this program in high school and college economics classes. 🙂

          • On March 10, 2020 at 5:43 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex…….I would be more than glad to volunteer ……..of course I would need to be supplied with a cup of free coffee twice a day………. 🙂

          • On March 10, 2020 at 9:23 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Welcome students, and keep stacking.

        • On March 9, 2020 at 10:45 am,
          John Kruschke says:

          For a thirty year investment, I would follow Rick Rule’s lead and invest in the World’s most precious commodity. WATER. Clean drinkable water.
          People are becoming more socially conscious as to the importance of clean drinking water.
          There are still people in Alaska that do not have running water or indoor plumbing, yet the Government can spend Billions on Defense, or should I say Offense.
          The PolyMet mine in Minnesota and the Pebble mine in Western Alaska are two good examples of the ongoing demand for Copper to fuel the “Green Economy” and the trade off people are willing to accept when clean fresh water and the creatures that inhabit them are at stake.

          • On March 9, 2020 at 3:57 pm,
            blazesb says:

            Agree Mr. K. I recall a few noted investors doing the water bet in public. T. Boone Pickens ten or more years ago. Dr. Michael ‘The Big Short’ Burry. Pickens is dead, Burry abandoned his water bets in favour of low debt high cash pile Japanese equities.

            Explanations for abandoning the trade was essentially that both were early.

          • On March 9, 2020 at 7:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Water = Blue Gold.

            There was a good documentary out with that name a decade back highlighting the water wars and control of water supply by larger corporations (often at the disservice of the local communities where it was being stolen from).

    • On March 9, 2020 at 8:29 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Jerry, I hope I am still here when the tide turns someday, I want to be around when it happens. DT

      • On March 10, 2020 at 5:44 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        DITTO>>>>>DT>>>>>>>>

  8. On March 9, 2020 at 10:15 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Fed…….is going to buy everything…..why, because that is their plan……
    remembering who the banksters/money changers are, they have been winning for 100’s of years………

    • On March 9, 2020 at 11:02 am,
      BobUK says:

      The coronavirus pandemic is just beginning.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 8:09 pm,
        Fritz Bender says:

        Agreed. Very proactive measures are the order of the day. Wait till masses get tested, numbers will be in tens of thousands if not more within 4 weeks.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 8:23 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Bob UK – you had good advice last week. Get away from the screen and negative news flow and go out and look at the moon and stars. Cheers!

        • On March 10, 2020 at 5:51 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Ditto……….I have completely withdrawn from all conversations involving the virus….
          This is a trial run……for total control by the state…..way to many themes converging at one time…………jmo

        • On March 10, 2020 at 5:57 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Almost exactly one month ago, President Xi, clad in a facemask and protective gear, ventured out of the Imperial City and out into the Beijing neighborhoods where he visited with hospital workers and posed for photos for the state-run media. Looking back, his decision to show up in person and visit with doctors and nurses probably accomplished what he intended: it gave the Chinese people hope that the leadership had not forgotten them, and that while the quarantine measures might seem draconian and overly punitive at times, the Communist Party would continue to do what it feels it must to maintain social order and protect the Chinese people.

          One month later, President Xi is making his second major public visit since the outbreak began in late December. This time, he’s traveling to Wuhan – the epicenter of the outbreak – in what appears to be a “Mission Accomplished” moment for the leader of the world’s largest country in its battle against the novel coronavirus and Covid-19.

          LIKE I SAID……………….Victory in two months…..hummm……planning or what?

  9. On March 9, 2020 at 11:00 am,
    Covid Kik says:

    testing…testing

    Plunge Protection Team not saving the Stalingrad and Poorski 500 today…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/deer%20headlights.jpg

    • On March 9, 2020 at 11:03 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      Engaging PPT would be futile on a day like this. There’s no point in throwing money at the market when selling pressure overwhelms everything.

  10. On March 9, 2020 at 11:08 am,
    Covid Kid says:

    Dow down over 2100…Stalingrad and Poorski 500 down over 7.5%…

  11. On March 9, 2020 at 2:46 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Chris Temple says you could not give him your silver right now. If anyone wants to give his silver away, I’ll be only too happy to take it. My big oils got creamed today and so did my mining shares.

    • On March 9, 2020 at 3:01 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Silver is at a 29 year low in real terms. Yes, it could get cheaper but the payoff will be worth it. Stocks will stop crashing and when they do, silver will move.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 3:45 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ditto bb………..agree……Matthew………

        • On March 9, 2020 at 7:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          +1, +2, and +3 for each of you.

          If Mr T doesn’t want his Silver or other folks want to give theirs away, I will also volunteer to accept it and get it off their hands (if it is such a dead weight for them). 😉

          The “industrial” importance is really being over-hyped in so many interviews lately, and the reality is that Silver has been a Precious Metal & real money for thousands of years, and will track far more with Gold than with Copper, Nickel, or Aluminum.

          Really, Silver is still “poor man’s gold” and there aren’t many average global citizens that can fork out enough savings to buy meaningful positions in the yellow metal at $1670. However with Silver at $17-$18 or $20 or even $25, the average plebs can gradually start saving and amassing a position in it, and it will have NOTHING to do with it being an “Industrial Metal”.

          This is precisely why there is a time drag and price drag in Silver before the masses start bidding it up in comparison to Gold, and it starts moving more when the speculative funds come in, trading most closely with the Gold & Silver mining stocks than even Gold. When Silver and the PM miners start to move, then the bull leg is on, but when Gold moves first without them, it is more of the initial safe haven leg where Gold moves with Bonds. Silver and the miners will catch up, and when they start running (regardless of the economic backdrop), I’ll want to hear daily explanations from all those beating on the “Silver is an Industrial Metal” drum.

  12. On March 9, 2020 at 5:17 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The next thing for investors to consider is when will the bottom be reached. If we have a deflationary process underway, prices for commodities could just keep falling for who knows, How Long? The government, The Federal Reserve, and The Bankers created this mess, they should leave the system alone and let it be cleansed without intervention. DT

    • On March 9, 2020 at 7:32 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      One catalyst could be a declining overall price in the dollar (not the dollar crash nuttiness that has been pumped for the last 2 decades), but just a weakening dollar, which would be inflationary to commodities.

      The other concept that may underpin and then boost commodity prices would be the large infrastructure projects many nations have discussed, but not really implemented in mass yet. It would be big if the US started it’s massive infrastructure project often discussed in passing, but there are plenty of other developing nations and old world regimes that could start absorbing natural resources as they build bridges, roads, dams, buildings, oil/gas pipelines, electrical grid infrastructure, update technology, etc…

      Commodities are still priced on the extreme low end historically, and just recently started to move up over the last few years in some of the moves from Iron, Zinc/Lead, Nickel, Tin, Palladium, Cobalt etc… but these have been a more limited markets. When Copper, Platinum, Uranium, Lithium, Phosphate & Agriculture minerals, Specialty Metals, and eventually Oil/Gas break out, then it will likely be tied to falling currencies and global infrastructure builds.

      • On March 9, 2020 at 7:35 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        There were some interesting Commodity charts that Christopher Aaron reviewed in his talk from the Vancouver Resource Investors Conference last month along these same lines, that is really worth reviewing for anyone interested in the longer term trends for the Commodities.

        State of the Resource Market in 2020 – Christopher Aaron

        Cambridge House International – #VRIC – Feb 27, 2020 #VIDEO

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ9YngX0Qn8

  13. On March 9, 2020 at 6:47 pm,
    CFS says:

    RUBINO, MARTENSON AND BURSTING THE BUBBLE:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLBfrVRDgwg

  14. On March 9, 2020 at 7:37 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Black Monday: Shades of October 19th, 1987

    by @Goldfinger on 9 Mar 2020

    “Black Monday was a Monday in October 1987 in which the S&P 500 fell 22% during a single trading session. There are many similarities between then and now, including the fact that markets were already extremely shaky heading into today’s trading session and news deteriorated further over the weekend.”

    “At this point the words “perfect storm” are already overused, however, they are indeed apropos. I couldn’t think of a more perfect scenario to crush global markets than the one we are experiencing right now.”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/black-monday-shades-of-october-19th-1987

  15. On March 9, 2020 at 8:28 pm,
    buzz says:

    Deja vu: I was a rookie full service broker in Dallas Gold Towers back that Monday, staring at the screen. All the rage at the time was “portfolio insurance”

    (For what turned out to be the fool’s that bought in at the top)

    • On March 9, 2020 at 9:20 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      This was a Deja Vu Monday market crash very reminiscent of the 87′ Black Monday.

  16. On March 9, 2020 at 8:31 pm,
    buzz says:

    I remember oil at 14$ bucks a barrel taking down the regional banks tooo

  17. On March 9, 2020 at 9:40 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Mining Investment Roundtable Discussion at 2020 PDAC with David Erfle, Brian Leni & Mining Book Guy

    MiningStockEducation – Mar 3, 2020

    “The annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada Convention (PDAC) is the world’s largest and premier international event for the minerals and mining industry. At this event, Bill Powers hosted a roundtable discussion with David Erfle (JuniorMinerJunky.com), Nick Germain (MiningBookGuy.com) and Brian Leni (JuniorStockReview.com) to discuss the conference and current risks and opportunities for investors in the junior mining sector. Several companies were named in the discussion and insights were offered on how these full-time mining investors are navigating the current junior resource sector.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNdFmCtUUXE

    • On March 9, 2020 at 10:33 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Resource Fund Manager Matt Geiger Shares How He’s Positioning His Fund for 2020

      MiningStockEducation – Feb 18, 2020 #AudioInterview

      0:15 Introduction
      1:07 Recapping 2019 performance of over 75% gains
      3:56 Positioning the fund for 2020
      6:09 Gold royalty trends and investment opportunities
      12:52 Base metal royalty valuation vs. gold royalties
      15:34 Discussing uranium stocks
      21:44 What to look for in a uranium investment now
      25:56 Due diligence process for niche metal plays
      28:50 Discussing Ecuador as a mining jurisdiction
      34:02 What Matt looks for in a development company

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxnpzRRrFd4

  18. On March 9, 2020 at 10:30 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Quant Approach to Picking Gold Stocks – Frank Holmes

    Cambridge House International #VRIC – Feb 28, 2020 #VIDEO

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sbIcqa1ri8

  19. On March 9, 2020 at 10:54 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Mining.com launches EV Battery Metals Index

    Frik Els | March 3, 2020

    “London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a global battery supply chain, megafactory tracker and market forecaster, provides MINING.COM with monthly sales-weighted price data.”

    “Toronto-based Adamas Intelligence, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 90 countries provides the data for the raw materials deployed.”

    https://www.mining.com/mining-com-launches-ev-battery-metals-index/

  20. On March 10, 2020 at 12:12 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Hasbrouck gold project’s operation plan approved – (WKM) West Kirkland Mining

    mining.com | March 9, 2020

    “The US Bureau of Land Management accepted West Kirkland Mining’s (TSXV: WKM) mine plan of operation for the Hasbrouck gold project in Nevada.”

    “The company is pleased to receive the BLM’s decision to commence the analysis of the Hasbrouck Mine pit and facilities under an EA and anticipates having federal permits for both the first and second phases of the Hasbrouck gold project in the near future,” the media brief states.

    https://www.mining.com/hasbrouck-gold-projects-operation-plan-approved/