Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 17 Mar, 2020

US Markets, is it too late to short? Gold stocks, was yesterday a key reversal day?

Chris Vermeulen joins me today to share his trading strategy for US markets and the gold sector. With US markets moving up today after the worst day in over 30 years I ask the question “Is it too late to short these markets”?

When it comes to gold and gold stocks, yesterday was a huge reversal day. Today the move up is continuing. Is this the all clear to jump back in?

Click here to visit The Technical Traders website and follow along with what Chris is trading.

View related posts on: , ,

Comments:
  1. On March 17, 2020 at 9:20 am,
    Matthew says:

    It’s no surprise that stocks are bouncing here but it does not seem to be a strong bounce.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52504138429&a=726667863

  2. On March 17, 2020 at 9:23 am,
    larry says:

    /NQ 30 min..needs to clear tom demark breakdown resistance at 7471…first target is oscillator unchange line (OUL) on day at 7909

  3. On March 17, 2020 at 9:31 am,
    Gerald says:

    Silver is arguably breaking down vs the US stock market today (and this week) and against the wider commodity complex. Is this another headfake like we saw with mining stocks? It certainly doesn’t look pretty right now.

    • On March 17, 2020 at 9:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      This just might be the end of silver’s big decline versus both the dollar and gold.
      SLV:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77273479899&a=727972963

    • On March 17, 2020 at 9:54 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Meanwhile Silver stocks are surging…

      Symbol – $Silver #Producers – Daily Change % at this point in the day.

      SMT.TO Sierra Metals Inc. +46.3158%
      SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +32.1429%
      CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +28.327%
      ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +26.9904%
      GPL Great Panther Mining Limited +25.6747%
      EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +25.4386%
      FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +13.4615%
      USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +13.4275%
      MYA.TO Maya Gold and Silver Inc. +15.7895%
      AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +14.39%
      HL Hecla Mining Company +12.6471%
      IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +11.8644%
      PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +9.88%
      FRES.L Fresnillo Plc +10.02%
      SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +4.48%
      GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +6.8182%

      • On March 17, 2020 at 10:44 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        That seems to be a nice list……JMO
        Thanks for posting…….some nice names that keep popping up….

        • On March 17, 2020 at 10:50 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I own 7 of them on that list above, and had added to a few of them last Thursday and Friday. Now they are up nicely and I’m trimming a bit that added back into the strength today, but still leaving some of the core positions in place.

          This was just a very easy trade to buy into the extreme weakness and ridiculous company valuations we saw by close of business last week, and a snapback rally was way overdue…. and here it is…

  4. On March 17, 2020 at 9:43 am,
    cfs says:

    Merely rubberized deceased feline, around nice round 20K Dow number.

    Central banks act to mitigate virus impact
    By Chen Jia | China Daily | Updated: 2020-03-17 07:36

    A bank staff member counts RMB and US dollar notes in Nantong, Jiangsu province, on Aug 28, 2019. [Photo/Sipa]
    Central banks keep reloading their weapons to lessen market fears caused by the global coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, while analysts call for more joint action to constrain the epidemic and prevent a severe economic downturn.
    The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, refrained from cutting the benchmark interest rates on Monday, but injected new liquidity of 100 billion yuan ($14.3 billion) into the financial system through the one-year, medium-term lending facility, keeping the rate unchanged at 3.15 percent.
    It followed with another 550 billion yuan on the same day, through cutting the amount of cash some commercial banks must hold in reserve, the reserve requirement ratio.

    • On March 17, 2020 at 10:01 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The helicopter engines are revving up….. to deliver some of that helicopter money:

      Cash Handouts Are Gaining Support in Congress as Best Virus Fix
      By Ben Holland and Laura Davison – March 16, 2020

      “Republican Senator Mitt Romney gave his backing to the idea on Monday, proposing to immediately send $1,000 checks to every adult American, and Republican Senator Tom Cotton also said he is working on legislation that would provide cash stipends. Several House Democrats also back sending checks as the best way to help households.”

      “Among economists, the idea of across-the-board cash handouts as a response to the epidemic has been rapidly gaining support. That’s mainly because the scale of the shock has become much clearer, as swaths of the economy — from air travel to bars and restaurants — essentially shut down.”

      “As a result, analysts worry that some of the virus-relief proposals already in the pipeline will be too narrow.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/cash-handouts-are-gaining-support-in-congress-as-best-virus-fix

      • On March 17, 2020 at 10:01 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Robbing from Peter to pay Paul.

        • On March 17, 2020 at 10:06 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Mitt R…..Let them eat cake mentality….$1000 is not going to do anything….

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:08 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Anything except ……raise more debt ……

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Mitt is just trying to salvage his tarnished reputation, so hey…. “free money”.

            Only it just inflates the debt bubble even larger.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:29 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Mitt……..needs to be in jail………he is part of corruption at the highest level……

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:31 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            But, you already know that……….I just printed that for any sleepy heads…. 🙂

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I think they should just tie Mitt to the roof of a car and go on vacation with him strapped on the top. 🙂

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:46 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Chevy Chase…….LV Vaction…..was the Aunt Vilma….?

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:48 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Or was that…….on the way to WallyWorld…………lol

          • On March 17, 2020 at 10:55 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Mitt Romney dog incident

            “During a 1983 family vacation, Mitt Romney drove 12 hours with his dog on top of the car in a windshield-equipped carrier. This incident became the subject of negative media attention and political attacks on Romney in both the 2008 and the 2012 presidential elections.”

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney_dog_incident

          • On March 17, 2020 at 11:05 am,
            David says:

            Ever since the Mitt dog incident, we have to tell our dog that he is going to the “Vet”, because if we say “Vacation” he crawls under the bed.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 12:53 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ha! Good one David!

    • On March 17, 2020 at 10:42 am,
      Excelsior says:
  5. On March 17, 2020 at 9:50 am,
    cfs says:

    WE should have reinstituted the uptick rule for short-selling. That;s more effective than 15 minute time-outs at slowing crashes.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/france-italy-spain-ban-short-selling-to-curb-market-plunge

    Europe’s closing the barndoor after all the horses bolted.

  6. On March 17, 2020 at 10:02 am,
    Gerald says:

    Even the Japanese yen (arguably the most abused fiat currency of any major economy) has handily outperformed silver over the last decade (up about 300% vs silver since 2011!).

    That just about sums it up.

    • On March 17, 2020 at 10:18 am,
      Gerald says:

      I am going to go out on a limb and say silver won’t breach its 200 WMA until 2022 and possibly 2023. Same goes for the CRB index.

      • On March 17, 2020 at 11:23 am,
        Matthew says:

        I bet silver will do it next quarter. The CRB will take much longer. One thing that could make me wrong is the Corona virus. If the hysteria doesn’t abate as I think it will, or gets worse, it might take a bit longer.

        • On March 17, 2020 at 12:19 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Actually, I think you could be right on this one. Silver to me looks like it’ll move higher in the near future and the 2nd quarter is a good bet.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 12:38 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            I think silver will probably move right up to the 200 WMA and fail the first time.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 12:51 pm,
            Gerald says:

            We’ll see. I doubt it will even make it back to the 200 WMA before it rolls over.

            Wherever it makes its final low, which I would expect in the next 1-2 months, I think it will likely re-test that low in 2-3 years and finally after all that make a move skyward.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 5:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That makes sense Doc. If not Q2 then Q3 of this year for Silver to take out its 200 week MA.

            While this recent swoon down in Silver did some chart damage, the Silver miners aren’t buying it and that is why they went on a tear yesterday and today. Most investors are getting far too pessimistic again.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 8:39 pm,
            Gerald says:

            I am expecting a significant bounce in silver within 2 months. It is people on this board who have been far far too bullish on silver for years. People here were predicting an imminent breakout well above $20 just a few weeks ago. That call didn’t turn out too well did it? We’ll see how long it takes to breach that level now (my expectation is 2-3 years). Silver just broke down from a 4 year sideways consolidation on massive volume. It’s not just going to rocket above $16 any time soon.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 8:59 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Panic and forced liquidation (which is self-reinforcing) is not the same as breaking down for fundamental reasons. Of course there’s overlap, but there’s a difference. That’s why GDXJ is up 49% in two days.

          • On March 17, 2020 at 9:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Even the crash of 2008 didn’t come close to such action. The following is GDX since GDXJ didn’t exist then. GDX is up 34% in two days which didn’t come close to happening in 2008…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&st=2007-12-18&en=2010-02-07&id=p14654490459

          • On March 17, 2020 at 9:13 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Correction: There was in fact one two day move in ’08 that matched GDX this week. But that doesn’t change my point since 2008 was also driven by panic and forced liquidation.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&st=2008-07-14&en=2009-07-22&id=p20086056925

  7. On March 17, 2020 at 10:31 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    We’ve probably seen the low in most of these PM stocks through the recent catharsis. Anyone that bought down there will do very well in the future. The PM stocks will probably now slowly consolidate down through the rest of March and April. There will be some good prices to add to.

    • On March 17, 2020 at 11:10 am,
      Gerald says:

      Silver and the CRB are broken. While I would expect backtests of their necklines at any time, I expect them to be heavily sold. It will be years before they are back above their 200 WMAs in all likelihood.

      • On March 17, 2020 at 5:03 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Silver won’t take years to get back above it’s 200 WMA, and that is far too bearish an assessment. Silver will be playing catch up to Gold, like it did today on a factor of 3:1.

        The CRB will take longer, but if the FED keeps throwing insane amounts of money at the structural issues in the general stock markets then eventually things will switch from a deflationary implosion to a an inflationary environment that will boost the commodities, and pressure the Dollar to the downside. That type of environment will also further boost the PMs.

  8. On March 17, 2020 at 3:29 pm,
    George says:

    Silver eagles can’t be had currently and premiums are very high.
    The prices are only for paper metals

    • On March 17, 2020 at 3:35 pm,
      Matt says:

      George, Nothing available in bullion even at all the dealers I have tried. Some overpriced gift pieces still available. What is available is $3 over spot.

    • On March 17, 2020 at 4:20 pm,
      Gerald says:

      So just buy a Comex contract and take delivery.

      • On March 17, 2020 at 5:24 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        They would likely just settle in cash instead of delivery if they can’t get ahold of any Silver.

        • On March 17, 2020 at 10:53 pm,
          Gerald says:

          When was the last time you heard of forced cash settlement? I know that is an option for Comex if they can’t get the metal, but has it ever happened in silver before?

  9. On March 17, 2020 at 3:37 pm,
    Matt says:

    Are there any dealers selling bullion at a reasonable price today? I can’t find them. Thank you. M