Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 24 Mar, 2020

Cash Is Still King, When To Get Aggressive With Your Portfolio, and Gold vs Gold Stocks

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to discuss his general strategies and market outlook for US stocks and the precious metals. He argues that now is still the time to have a cash heavy strategy.

As for Gold and gold stocks they are still in very different patterns. Gold continues to show strength and the stocks are doing well but still have yet to breakout.

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Comments:
  1. On March 24, 2020 at 2:18 pm,
    4 oz says:

    Gold market wobbled all day today~~~

    • On March 24, 2020 at 2:36 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      When I didn’t like a job I was working on I used to go to the bar, we called it a job wobble, it was a good way to have fun and reduce the stress. DT

  2. On March 24, 2020 at 2:44 pm,
    bonzo says:

    At midnight tonight Houstonians will be arrested and thrown in jail for 180 days if we leave our homes until April 3rd. I’ll just keep smiling, cause when you’re smiling, the whole world smiles with you. Fortunately I have enough food for several months.

    • On March 24, 2020 at 2:49 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Well…….if, you get hungry ……just go out side and get thrown in jail…..that way they will have to feed ya……….Jail are going to be full…and….I bet , they leave the jail cell doors open…….. 🙂

      • On March 24, 2020 at 2:50 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Mayor , must be a Demwhit………..certainly not running for re election on a Trump ticket

        • On March 24, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Damn………I was right………..
          Sylvester Turner. Houston, Texas, U.S. Sylvester Turner (born September 27, 1954) is an American attorney and politician and is the 62nd mayor of Houston, Texas. A member of the Democratic Party, Turner was a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 1989 until 2016.

          • On March 24, 2020 at 2:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Good Grief………………..NO WAY ARE THEY STAYING INSIDE>….
            The population of Houston, TX is 44.9% Hispanic or Latino, 23.7% White Alone, and 22% Black or African American Alone. 49.9% of the people in Houston, TX speak a non-English language, and 79.8% are U.S. citizens.

      • On March 24, 2020 at 2:58 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Houston mayor is part of the scum ball agenda……….LOL

        • On March 24, 2020 at 3:52 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Houston….We have a problem !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          • On March 24, 2020 at 4:10 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ha, ha……….I think you are right……

    • On March 24, 2020 at 3:07 pm,
      JMiller says:

      People of Houston will be allowed to leave their homes for a number of reasons even to go to the park.

    • On March 24, 2020 at 3:54 pm,
      irishtony says:

      bonzo……Sod the food , have you got enough toilet paper………………………

      • On March 24, 2020 at 4:17 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        If, the politicians do not start handing over the toilet paper , revert to the age old tradition of chemical war fair………..seems to me , the Irish used it before…… 🙂
        https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/vdx4ad/brown-death-a-history-of-poop-as-a-weapon-111

        • On March 24, 2020 at 4:34 pm,
          irishtony says:

          S**t.. Jerry …Thats some scary S**T you just posted…That S**T is some serious S**t…& right now the whole world is in the S**ter………………………………………………………..

          • On March 24, 2020 at 4:37 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ha, ha, ha……..damn you are funny…….love it…… Laughing splitting a gut. on that one…..:)

      • On March 24, 2020 at 6:44 pm,
        bonzo says:

        Tony, I think I have enough TP for 6 months. Where are you from in Eire? In 1973 I rode the train to Galway and back from Dublin, and took a bus to Glendalough.
        Beautiful country back then. I’ll never forget Mrs. Drury’s B&B at 273 Clontarf Road near Bull Island.

  3. On March 24, 2020 at 2:46 pm,
    CFS says:

    The government is not the solution.

    It is the problem.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQslMZzk3Og

  4. On March 24, 2020 at 3:49 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Chris’s read on sentiment is interesting because all I’ve been seeing is fear at the few sites I go to with everyone saying they’re completely in cash. Some are trading but they’re going flat at the end each day.
    Today’s huge gaps are definitely cause for concern but they have an increased chance of staying open because of the Fed’s announcement and the low levels they started from. Of course they will probably get filled in a hurry if gold drops a hundred bucks from here.
    Gold:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p70458912369&a=727350573

  5. On March 24, 2020 at 3:50 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On March 24, 2020 at 3:53 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold closed at an incredible 69 barrels of oil today. That’s more than ten times its 2008 low of just over 6 barrels.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24WTIC&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46154669234&a=729961718

    • On March 24, 2020 at 7:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Wow. That Gold:Oil chart is wild!

      • On March 24, 2020 at 7:48 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Agreed. Almost parabolic!

      • On March 24, 2020 at 8:29 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The highest I could find besides today was 52 barrels in 1933. 😳
        Who needs oil when the gov is hellbent on collapsing the economy?

  7. On March 24, 2020 at 4:00 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold finished the day at a fairly important fork resistance:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=15&id=p44718634243&a=679890436

  8. On March 24, 2020 at 4:47 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Cheers for the charts Matthew, always helpful.

    • On March 24, 2020 at 6:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Cheers Ozibatla

      Here’s a new video by Mike Maloney and he thoroughly gets it…
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3vdC83yqLU

      • On March 24, 2020 at 6:55 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Dang……..wonder if Bill had Vangard…REIT……boom , bang,,,,pop…….at 3 min mark
        Fraud Fed, owns all the real estate…….what a scam…
        I really, enjoy Mike……I think he does a great job..on educating people.

  9. On March 24, 2020 at 9:13 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    I generally like Chris V.’s analysis when he comes on the show, but simply don’t agree that this hasn’t been a good market for swing trading. Without volatility swing trading sucks, and with it (providing one uses the lessor charts exactly like one would on longer duration trades) is isn’t any more or less risky, it is just the time frames are condensed and one needs to watch their screen more closely.

    I mentioned several times how I was buying stocks on the Friday sell-offs on Feb 28th, March 13th, and last Friday the 20th, and each time there have been nice 15-50% scalps to be had swing trading the markets within 1-3 days.

    –> All this volatility has been a swing-traders dream fantasy, so I can’t imagine having stayed in cash during it; unless one is really a “buy and hold” value investor looking to miss all the volatility. If anything the massive amount of volume and the wild swing have made for easier entries and exits in dozens of miners.

    ** I’ll just share one stock example which I’ve traded a bit more than others lately.

    I was buying (SVM) Silvercorp on the large spike down on Friday the 13th @ $2.19 [and yeah, I did it on leverage because of how ridiculous the prices had become] and traded out of it last week on the 17th at $2.84 for a 30% in 3 trading sessions.

    As a side note: The leverage isn’t always bad, as it obviously depends on if you confident in the direction or not, using TA as a guide. Really when leverage hurt me was when I wasn’t trading but was just holding when the bottom fell out of the market in late February and got spanked with a margin call.

    Regardless, after having just scalped a nice trade in Silvercorp, I turned right back around and added some back on $2.73 on the 18th and sold out at $3.03 on the 19th for an 11% gain. (some may not be wowed by that, but there are some mutual funds that only go up 11% in a year, and I made it in a day).

    Then I mentioned on last Friday’s show buying into (SVM) again at $2.54 and making it one of my top weighted positions, and sold most of that back at $3.33 on the 23rd for a 31% gain.

    Then I added a bit more back in the after-hours market on Monday at $3.24 and sold out of it today at $3.75 for 16% gain, and felt bad selling so much out and there was a crazy whip-saw action for a few hours, so I dove back in again at $3.61 and sold back about 2 minutes later at $3.82 for quick 6% gain. Now OK that last trade was really a day-trade and not a swing-trade, but the action was flipping so violently it was not hard at all to trade it, and I could have widened that spread if I had wanted to take on more risk, but that was a conservative trade based on the ranges being trade. I decided to go flat and sell out the rest of my core position at $3.91 and call it day, but then it proceeded to go up an close at $4.01 on the day, so I had sellers remorse.

    I’m sure I’ll be back in SVM tomorrow, looking for a spot to get long, but that was 6 trades in the last 2 1/2 weeks for 114% in gains from swing trading, and I would not have gotten so active if it was not for the huge volatility in price swings, and all the liquidity pouring in.

    You gotta be in it to win it!

    I’m not suggesting others take a similar track or encouraging active trading, as it can be risky, but no more so than buying a position in January or February and then having one’s ass handed to them in late Feb – March. The only different is the time frame of the swing trade, and there have been really easy setups lately (much easier than normal) when we’ve been seeing such extreme sell offs and huge red candles down, to buy and ride it back up on the snap-back corrective move higher. There is virtually no difference when charting of using weekly/monthly for really slow buy & hold trading, or using the hourly and daily charts for more active swing trading over shorter time horizons.

    Stay nibble and good trading everyone.

    • On March 24, 2020 at 9:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Just to clarify, so folks don’t think I’m a raging lunatic, most of the positions I’ve been adding to since February 28th in companies like Alexco, Americas Gold & Silver, Maverix, Silvercrest, K92 Mining, Impact Silver, Discovery Metals, Vizsla, Northern Vertex, First Majestic and a few of the Uranium stocks like Nexgen, Energy Fuels, and Ur-Energy, have been to accumulate on the dips and I’m not actively trading them all that much.

      I did swing trade Alexco, First Majestic, Americas Silver, and Silvercrest a few times because they are so liquid, like Silvercorp. Keep in mind the GDXJ balancing played a part in the liquidity 2 weeks ago and last week, and with Silvercorp they announced a Stock repurchase plan that kicked off the end of last week, so I used those fundamental backdrops with extra liquidity to be looking for trade sets ups, knowing the volumes would be higher and they absolutely were.

      • On March 24, 2020 at 9:35 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Even if investors don’t want to swing trade and just want to accumulate, it was easy to add to the quality stocks the last few weeks, many of which had fallen 30-50% in value on the recent market rout, and those kind of sell downs are called gifts, so I still can’t imagine having stayed in cash and my biggest error was not having more cash built up in late February before the bottom fell out, as I’ve been pulling cash from deep savings to deploy in the sold off markets, and have recouped about 2/3 of what was lost thus far by buying value and then lightening back up as stocks rose, and supplementing it with some of the active trading gains. I’m still not back to where was I was before Feb 24th, but if I hadn’t deployed cash into the weakness and scalped gains I wouldn’t have recovered nearly so much.

        To each their own, but if I was sitting on a pile of cash like some of the pundits have mentioned the last 2 weeks, I sure would have been putting it to use, at least for a few swing trades. I believe the extreme headlines and media panic makes people that normally would appreciate the great trade set-ups freeze in fear when it is actually some of the easier trading set ups we’ve seen in a long time.

        Ever Upward!

      • On March 25, 2020 at 7:15 pm,
        Bill says:

        Excelsior not sure why you make so much work for yourself??
        My simple NUGT trade blew you away 60% in 3 days..nothing to think about there..

  10. On March 25, 2020 at 1:22 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Gold price solid correction. Obviously they fixed (no pun intended) the spot price mechanisms. Or perhaps it corrected because Goldman Sachs said its time to buy…Ha, those hacks couldnt lie straight in bed!

  11. On March 25, 2020 at 7:09 pm,
    Bill says:

    Ill simplify it. I SAID BUY BUY BUY last week.
    Awsome if you bought nugt. Uslv…why are you clowns screwing with stocks…no brainer easy trade..

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