Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Wed 25 Mar, 2020

A Secular Bear Market For US Markets, Gold and gold Stock Thoughts, and Uranium Developments

Doc joins me today to share his thoughts on the US markets, gold and gold stocks, and the uranium sector. Some of the highlights include his time frame for the secular bear markets for US equities, the balance between the gold:silver ratio, and if he is investing in uranium plays right now.

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Comments:
  1. On March 25, 2020 at 10:09 am,
    Matthew says:

    SILJ is up 65% and looks great but is now at resistance:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p78560881870&a=726315882

  2. On March 25, 2020 at 10:13 am,
    Matthew says:

    CDE is up more than 100% and also looks great. It is poking through resistance right now:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p69241076127&a=715455483

    • On March 25, 2020 at 12:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve had a very nice run in CDE Coeur over the last 2 weeks but don’t have a very large position size in it, since I have funds deployed elsewhere. This is why I don’t understand why so many say they’ve been sitting on cash. Look at the moves in most of the producers. I’ve made a killing adding to many of them lately, especially Silvercorp, and have clawed back most of the losses since the peak in most miners on Feb 24th.

      Matthew – Good CDE charts!

      • On March 25, 2020 at 12:59 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Since there is resistance coming into play I decided to sell out of my CDE position for now and bank the gains to build up a bit more dry powder, but will likely get back in if the Silver producers roll over soon after about 2 weeks of most of them charging higher.

        • On March 25, 2020 at 1:07 pm,
          Matthew says:

          You can buy it back when it fills yesterday’s big gap. It could do so very quickly.

          • On March 25, 2020 at 5:11 pm,
            David says:

            Its all the same Central Banking system. They are private and have little allegiance to sovereigns. They just destroy currencies and transfer wealth to their owners. Then start over. As been proven over and over, there has never been an unbacked fiat currency that survived. This time is no different.

          • On March 25, 2020 at 5:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I’d get right back in CDE if pulled back to the $3.30’s or $3.20’s.

    • On March 25, 2020 at 5:42 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yeah, First Majestic has been quite peppy as well, but it also gapped up and looks to have extended into a few levels of potential resistance, so I’m waiting for the dip to add for the next pip.

  3. On March 25, 2020 at 10:22 am,
    Matthew says:

    Even GDM is up 47%:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79423510550&a=577064562

    All the ETFs look highly unlikely to retest their lows.

  4. On March 25, 2020 at 10:22 am,
    Paul says:

    Doc, where do you see the gdx low and what kind of range are you talking in gdx? Thanks

  5. On March 25, 2020 at 10:25 am,
    Paul says:

    Doc one other question, when do you now see the next run in gold, year out, second half 2021??

    • On March 25, 2020 at 11:24 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Paul, the next 2 months (April and May) will tell the story. In fact, April will give us a great clue. The problem is this: the MACD, a momentum indicator is still telling us gold is in good shape and will continue strong at the end of this month; however, the strength indicators are flashing yellow. A lot of the monthly charts of good solid companies have just seen their BBs turn sideways indicating a trading range for many months. I can’t see gold moving significantly higher if these stocks don’t break out of their incipient trading range. April will tell us along with May whether momentum wins over weakening strength or vice versa. We are at a cross roads. I’m betting on strength overtaking momentum.

  6. On March 25, 2020 at 10:46 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX saw record volume last week which is bullish under the circumstances:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38859944616&a=725445735

  7. On March 25, 2020 at 12:10 pm,
    SilverDollar says:

    Matthew:
    You gotta be feeling good today with all these posts! Thanks.

    • On March 25, 2020 at 12:22 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I do like what I am seeing! 👍

    • On March 25, 2020 at 12:24 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If we get a good pullback soon, I consider it a strong buy (just my opinion).

    • On March 25, 2020 at 12:44 pm,
      Matthew says:

      With gold staying way above its upper quarterly Bollinger Band, we could see it shoot for the yearly Bollinger Band which is currently about $1912.
      There is big power under gold as I’ve been saying for weeks but I don’t think many are clear about what that means. BIG patterns/structures are in play so fretting about volatility that is only impressive relative to short term much smaller patterns is probably a mistake.

      Notice that gold is again overbought based on the yearly RSI(14). The last time it entered that reading was 14 years ago and gold more than tripled afterward.
      Also notice that the yearly MACD never sold during the bear market and now is very bullishly positioned. This phase of the huge bull market is going to see an acceleration and probably a permanent big increase in volatility. The gains in the miners will be much bigger than they were between 2001 and 2011.

      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Y&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4353606789c&r=1585164505223&cmd=print

  8. On March 25, 2020 at 12:21 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I don’t see the monthly Bollinger bands as a limiting factor at this time because they reflect past price action. The dramatic narrowing of the bands in mid 2018, for example, was due to the narrow trading range of the previous 12+ months. Price then blew right through the bands which caused them to widen.
    However, if they are going sideways at the time price reaches them, I would expect a reaction of some kind.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7163578248c&a=730670301&r=1585162653452&cmd=print

  9. On March 25, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
    bonzo says:

    Doc, have you bought any HAL or SLB yet? Last year I bought SLB@35 and then sold it@38, and would like to buy it back some day. I doubt HAL or SLB will go under, but they could go lower if oil falls below 20 next month. How low do you think they could go? Thanks.

    • On March 25, 2020 at 1:21 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      I bought HAL and SLB 2 weeks ago and added recently. The odds are they move higher from here and then fall back again.

      • On March 25, 2020 at 5:27 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I picked up $DEE Delphi Energy today based on such ridiculous valuations in the #OIL patch because they look prime for #TakeOver now that they’ve done the reverse split and have a much better financial situation than their market cap would indicate.

        A larger producer could easily acquire them as a bolt-on operation.

        __________________________________________________________________

        DELPHI ENERGY CORP. REPORTS 2019 YEAR END RESULTS

        March 11, 2020

        http://www.delphienergy.ca/upload/news_release/285/01/delphi-energy-corp-2019-year-end-press-release.pdf

  10. On March 25, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
    Bill says:

    My NUGT trade up 95% since I said BUY BUY BUY

    • On March 25, 2020 at 1:06 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Due to market disruption and volatility on March 23, 2020, the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:NUGT) and Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:JNUG) won’t have exposure of 300% of the market today.

      At market open NUGT will have exposure of ~260% and JNUG ~240%, Direxion said.

      The reduced exposure is for March 24, 2020 only.

      • On March 25, 2020 at 1:07 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Above was just a NOTE……I just thought it was interesting , they get to play with the numbers….and percentages

        • On March 25, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          above was at seeking alpha……….article…

          • On March 25, 2020 at 5:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Those leveraged ETFs are quite the racket, playing with their exposure to GDX and GDXJ in a derivatives fashion.

        • On March 25, 2020 at 1:29 pm,
          Bill says:

          No kidding OOTB!
          Oh well Ill take it anyway. I got lucky on the short back a waz now on the long…all good.
          Cheers

          • On March 25, 2020 at 1:47 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Bill…….Seems …..all the exchanges ….are getting tricky…..and playing tricks….
            Cheers

  11. On March 25, 2020 at 1:02 pm,
    Matthew says:
  12. On March 25, 2020 at 1:05 pm,
    Matthew says:
  13. On March 25, 2020 at 1:13 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Bob Moriarty: The Financial System Is Bust And It’s Time To Return To Sound Money

    by Ceo Technician (@Goldfinger)

    > Goldfinger: – “The US Congress is working on passing a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill. Will this make a difference at all in the long run?”

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “They are going to try 15 different things, but in the end none of them are going to work. Where is this money actually coming from?”

    > Goldfinger: – “The taxpayers and bond holders who hold US Treasury debt.”

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “The government is broke and this is just more of the same deficit spending with no end in sight. Doing more of the same isn’t going to deliver a different result. They should let everything crash and rebuild the economy based upon a real money system. We need to go back to sound money, not more of the same which got us here.”

    Goldfinger: From my estimation gold is the place to be right now. Remember how for the last few years there was this “TINA” theme in investing i.e. there is no alternative (to stocks). Now it seems to me that there is no alternative to gold.

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “Actually there is, and we’ve discussed it many times.”

    > Goldfinger: – “You’re talking about silver?”

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “Yes, silver is much cheaper than gold here. The gold/silver ratio reached nearly 126-1 and that means that silver is extremely cheap relative to gold. In fact, it’s never been this cheap before.”

    > Goldfinger: – “You’re correct, but I think an investor should own both gold and silver. I’m a gold guy because I believe it’s a more widely accepted store of value and currency alternative. Global central banks also seem to agree.”

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “You’re missing the point. The central banks won’t matter in what’s coming. The masses will buy silver and the price will rise much higher than it is today.”

    > Goldfinger: – “I think both gold and silver will do very well. We could see gold at $2,000 and silver at $25 or something like that. The gold/silver ratio would then be about 80-1.”

    >> Bob Moriarty: – “That’s absolutely correct.”

    http://energyandgold.com/2020/03/25/bob-moriarty-the-financial-system-is-bust-and-its-time-to-return-to-sound-money/

  14. On March 25, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
    Bill says:

    I posted to grab some USLV at $25 now 40 bucks. Thank the lord cuz I need some more US coin..lol

  15. On March 25, 2020 at 1:48 pm,
    Bill says:

    Crash worked out well…unfortunate for some though. Picked up some smokin bargains

    • On March 25, 2020 at 3:24 pm,
      Bill says:

      My guys says and im in this boat…great contrarions indeed love that…
      “We’re not comfortable with the massive hype around precious metals currently, and this along with other indicators while factoring the very generous short-term gains on the table has us preferring to step aside on USLV while remaining with DGP for gold exposure in accordance with our bullish GTI signal.”

  16. On March 25, 2020 at 2:13 pm,
    pardu says:

    Doc, if gold moves lower April-May and the stocks challenge their lows at what price do you think Novo Resources (NSRPF) and Auryn (AUG) would be a good entry point? Do you have a favorite stock that looks good right now? Also, what price do you think gold and silver will drop to?

  17. On March 25, 2020 at 3:16 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Pardu, I believe only some stocks will challenge their lows again. I think Novo is a decent buy between this price and $1.00. I like between this price and $.75. i don’t expect a massive price move down in any of these stocks in the near future. I believe good support is present for gold at $1500.00. I don’t necessarily feel it’ll move that low again. If we move a little lower in April/May, people best buy move shares of the PM sector since there is no serious threat to a significant move down for the PMs.

  18. On March 25, 2020 at 3:18 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Pardu, I like AUG between this price and $.75. I’ve purchased some Novo and Auryn both down here.

  19. On March 25, 2020 at 3:53 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-colludes-with-the-comex-to-lockdown-the-global-gold-market/
    Do not know if anyone posted this……
    Again, notice the strange reference to shipments of bullion to the US? Since when have any COMEX – LBMA trades, such as Exchange for Physical (EFPs) involved shipments of bullion to the US?

    Reuters continues:

    “if physical gold from London is needed to deliver against Comex futures contracts it has to be melted down from the 400 ounce bars used in London and recast as 100 ounce bars accepted by Comex.”

    This again is gobbledygook from Reuters. CME GC gold futures can trade OTC on and bullion banks can based on gold in London (loco London) to settle the COMEX futures in London, especially during New York morning. And that can be 400 oz gold bars (London Good delivery bars), which are the standard for loco London settlement. At the end of the day its just a gold location swap.

    • On March 25, 2020 at 3:55 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Hilariously, the Reuters article also featured an anonymous quote from a bullion banker as follows, which is exactly what the LBMA said to me in Singapore in 2016:

      ”“It’s totally logical,” said an executive at a gold-trading bank. “In London there’s no shortage of metal.“”

      But with nearly all gold in the London gold vaults owned by central banks or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), there is just a of the physical gold in London underpinning the entire unallocated trading and clearing

      • On March 25, 2020 at 3:57 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        So what is exactly going on here? Who is bailing out who? The same bullion banks operate in both markets. Is the LBMA bailing out some of its bullion bank members that have blown up while at the same time propping up the COMEX edifice? If so, with the LBMA just being a trade association with the bullion banks at the helm, where are the 400 oz gold bars coming from? The HSBC or JP Morgan vaults in London? Or that famous gold lender of last resort, the Bank of England?

  20. On March 25, 2020 at 5:43 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Demand for gold could temporarily fall significantly with all these lockdowns taking place throughout the world. India consumes majority of that demand and the whole country is now in complete lockdown until further notice. This factor coupled with the fact that refineries and bullion dealerships being closed due to the global lockdown, along with the logistical issue of transporting physical bullion also being denied, many people are now realising they cannot even buy PMs, even if they wanted to. Essentially, like many other sectors, this aspect of PMs has slowed or stopped.

    Of course, once all the Covid19 debacle subsides, backed up demand mixed with shortages could spell squeeze like conditions in gold, silver and other metals.

    • On March 25, 2020 at 5:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Worldwide Mining Disruptions

      mining.com | March 25, 2020

      “On a global scale, work is grinding to a halt and operations at mines are being temporarily suspended as majors and minors move to enact measures to protect against the spread of covid-19.”

      “With governments from Africa to Latin America issuing lockdown orders, unprecedented disruptions to operations and supply chains are threatening the outlook for industrial and precious metals. Most of the majors have announced halts at gold-copper operations.”

      https://www.mining.com/worldwide-mining-disruptions/

  21. On March 25, 2020 at 6:34 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    If, the mines are closing…………how are they going to deliver in the future….. 🙂

    • On March 25, 2020 at 6:45 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Its a good question Jerry. These are unprecedented times. Delivery is certainly an issue at the moment due to mine, refinery, dealerships and transport closures. Once normal order resumes and people buy/ask for delivery, the supply demand relationship is going to be tested.

      • On March 25, 2020 at 6:52 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        If, they close down……I understand, …Starting the mine back up….is no easy matter, and takes a little longer to get back up and running…….So, will there be an additional time lag, in addition to the assumed down time. for the virus bs…….there by straining the markets further…..

  22. On March 25, 2020 at 7:01 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    100% agree on that assertion. Who knows whem the virus bs will end too: weeks, months, next year?

    • On March 25, 2020 at 7:37 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      BTW…….I posted some info. in the other section, concerning positive news on the bs virus….from zerohedge…from 12 experts in the field…..saying the MSN, is hyping the story. …usawatchdog…post was interesting from Gerald C…concerning the virus and gold

      • On March 25, 2020 at 7:39 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        time to sign off……..have a great day…..

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