Lobo Tiggre - The Independent Speculator – Fri 17 Apr, 2020

Comments on investing in gold and uranium at current levels

Lobo Tiggre joins me for a discussion focusing on the gold market and the recent pop in uranium prices. Both metals are doing well but for very different reasons.

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Comments:
  1. On April 17, 2020 at 12:27 pm,
    Marty says:

    Teranga does a perfect 2.618 move off its $2.84 March low. Yes, fib still works in some circumstances. Sold 1/2 @ 7.38 US

    • On April 18, 2020 at 2:26 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Great point on the fib retracements. Mathematics is the language of the universe.

      I’m still interested to see if (TGZ) Teranga will make a move on (SWA) Sarama Resources which has the land position all around Teranga’s development project at Golden Hill. Actually, Sarama has a ton of interesting positions around that South Hounde’ greenstone belt in Burkina, and has partial control over some lands with Semafo (who took out Savary Gold – Sarama’s partner), but now Semafo is being consumed by Endeavour mining.

      As a result of the consolidation there, I could see Teranga eventually making a play for Sarama, but there are other wildcard potentials for mergers and acquisitions in that area from Roxgold, B2Gold, or maybe a move from Resolute, Asanko, or Goldfields.

      • On April 18, 2020 at 2:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        It is very interesting if one looks at pages 11 & 13 on (SWA) Sarama Resources Corporate Presentation at how their properties are smack dab between Semafo and Teranga’s properties on the South Hounde’ greenstone belt.

        * On page 11 – Note how close to Semafo’s JV with Sarama at Karankasso and Semafo’s own development project at Bantou is in proximity to Sarama’s South Hounde Project, to Bondi, and the 3 B’s Projects. You can also see Teranga’s Golden Hill development project on that map. Obviously prime real estate.

        * On page 13 – note how Sarama’s Bondi Development project, and ThreeBees Project (Bouni, Bamako, Botoro) has Teranga’s Golden Hill surrounded.

        Either Teranga offers to buy those projects from Sarama, which would still be a win, or Teranga could takeover Sarama, and also get their other projects and JVs with Semafo (which would really be with Endeavour Mining moving forward).

        I don’t see how Sarama get’s left alone for much longer and expect more consolidation in West Africa later in 2020 or by early 2021 at the latest.

        ________________________________________________________

        (SWA) (SRMMF) Sarama Resources – Corporate Presentation

        https://saramaresources.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/sarama-corporate-presentation-feb-2020-final.pdf

  2. On April 17, 2020 at 12:42 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Love the Ren and Stimpy reference. So am I hearing sell into strength for juniors then reby in next downturn?

  3. On April 18, 2020 at 2:20 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Could Silver Soon See Its Day In The Sun?

    By Darryl Schoon – Apr 16, 2020

    “The whole concept of ‘owning shares’ is being questioned by those who’ve been taught to remain braindead by generations and generations of ‘economics teachers.’ It’s in this context that metal futures – especially of gold and silver – are moving apart from other ‘securities.’”

    “Is there a true ‘reduction in demand’ for silver? Those who hold ‘securities’ are trying to switch from those that will vanish (‘shares’ and ‘bonds’) into ones that will not vanish, or at least ‘one side of which’ won’t vanish – and silver/gold futures/forwards, amongst other goods, fit that requirement. This is evidenced by looking at changes in COMEX system of repositories’ inventory, which gives a clearer picture as to the true ‘demand for silver.’”

    https://safehaven.com/commodities/precious-metals/Could-Silver-Soon-See-Its-Day-In-The-Sun.html

  4. On April 18, 2020 at 3:11 am,
    Excelsior says:

    The #Uranium Catalyst Nobody Expected
    Real Vision w/ Arthur Hyde (04/15/2020)

    “Demand shocks like those seen in the oil market have caused prices to plummet while prices for other commodities are rising as supply chains break down. Arthur Hyde, partner and co-portfolio manager at Segra Capital Management, joins Real Vision to explain why he believes uranium falls squarely in the second camp. Hyde argues that higher uranium prices have been a long time coming and that this crisis could be the spark that finally puts the power back in the hands of #producers.”

    https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/the-uranium-catalyst-nobody-expected#.Xpb4MmyZSfw.twitter

    • On April 18, 2020 at 3:14 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The Uranium Price Is Finally On The Rise – Here’s The Easiest Way To Bet On A Bull Market

      Dominic Frisby – 15 APR 2020

      “The uranium price has been quietly creeping up to hit a four-year high. Dominic Frisby explains what’s behind the rise, and picks the best way to invest.”

      https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/601163/the-uranium-price-is-finally-on-the-rise-heres-the-easiest-way-to

      • On April 18, 2020 at 3:17 am,
        Excelsior says:

        @thoughtfulspeculator – “Essentially all of the companies in this beaten-down sector are going to have problems that some people would consider red flags. I agree that the CEO of $EFR $UUUU took some gambles that didn’t work out. Whether you consider those reasonable long-shot actions born of desperation or bone-headed blunders is a matter of opinion. $EFR $UUUU is still the largest producer of #Uranium in the U.S. and has a mill. I personally think the company is going to do very, very well in a raging U bull market notwithstanding the missteps during the bear market. That’s why I’m long.”

        “$URE $URG did a nice job minimizing dilution during the rout because of long-term contracts and its share price is still somehow incredibly low, but there’s no doubt that Klenda was a key driver and defender of the Section 232 petition that didn’t play out the way anyone would have wanted.”

        “Even annoying “mine the shareholders’ wallets” companies like $UEC could have multi-bagger potential if uranium doubles because the company, for all the faults of its management, can actually produce material at the right price (unlike some “pounds in the ground” future fantasy companies). Definitely identify and consider the problems and risks but keep in mind that any perfect company in this sector (and there aren’t any) would be too expensive to be worth buying.”

        https://ceo.ca/efr?eb065d4b64d9

        • On April 18, 2020 at 3:20 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Colorado Uranium Firm to Enter Rare Earth Elements Sector

          Streetwise Reports (4/15/20)

          “Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR) (UUUU) announced that it plans to process rare earth elements (REEs) ore at its White Mesa Mill, not mine or produce REEs, while continuing its primary business of uranium mining and production.”

          “The company decided to enter the REE space after spending several months reviewing, testing and discussing the prospect with various technical experts and the U.S. government, the latter of which desires a domestic source of the REEs needed for national defense.”

          “Energy Fuels believes it can turn its White Mesa Mill, a conventional uranium processing facility in Utah, into a “one-stop-shop for U.S. critical mineral processing, thereby reducing our reliance on China,” Energy Fuels President and CEO Mark S. Chalmers said in the release. “We believe Energy Fuels holds a distinct advantage as an early mover in this high-value, high-growth sector, and we look forward to engaging with the U.S. government on this important national security initiative.”

          https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2020/04/15/colorado-uranium-firm-to-enter-rare-earth-elements-sector.html

          • On April 18, 2020 at 3:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (UUUU) (EFR) Energy Fuels Spotlighted in Broadcast Discussing U.S. Uranium Supply Chain Reinvigoration

            by @nasdaq on 16 Apr 2020

            “The current global health crisis has revealed our nation’s soft underbelly of vulnerability to foreign sources of critical materials. America’s reliance on crucial medicines and supplies from adversarial nations like China has sounded a clarion call for U.S. policymakers to think and plan smarter. The current crisis has also revealed that the U.S. has a dangerous reliance on certain foreign sources of critical minerals and energy. Most people know about our extreme reliance on China for rare earth elements (REEs), which are found in products as varied as cell phones, wind turbines and military systems that defend America. Not as many people know that we are now nearly 100% reliant on imports of uranium for our nuclear power plants. If nothing changes, over 50% of this uranium may come from state-owned entities in Russia and China in the coming years.”

            https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/energy-fuels-spotlighted-in-broadcast-discussing-us

          • On April 18, 2020 at 3:49 am,
            Excelsior says:

            America’s Supply Chains in Jeopardy

            by @newswire on 14 Apr 2020

            “Reliance on foreign and malign sources for critical materials is a national security risk. The United States is by far the largest consumer of uranium in the world, yet the country imports nearly all of its uranium from state-owned and subsidized foreign sources, squeezing domestic suppliers and putting the U.S. supply chain in jeopardy. Uranium is designated by the U.S. government as vital to the nation’s security and economic prosperity, and the Department of Interior warned, “This dependency of the United States on foreign sources creates a strategic vulnerability for both its economy and military to adverse foreign government action, natural disaster, and other events that can disrupt supply of these key minerals.”

            “Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE: UUUU) (TSX: EFR) (UUUU Profile), the United States’ largest domestic producer of uranium, has led recent efforts to warn the U.S. government about the security threats to uranium supply chain disruption and the vital importance of having a sustainable domestic uranium sector. If the U.S. fails to act, 20% of the nation’s electricity — and 55% of its clean, carbon-free electricity — may become hostage to malign foreign sources of uranium, and recent events show that any supply chain disruption, benign or intentional, can have devastating impact. Business takes supply chain security seriously, and government should too.”

            https://ceo.ca/@newswire/americas-supply-chains-in-jeopardy

    • On April 18, 2020 at 3:35 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (CCO) (CCJ) Cameco Extends Production Suspension at Cigar Lake Mine and Withdraws Outlook

      @nasdaq on 13 Apr 2020


      “Cameco announced on March 23 that the Cigar Lake operation was being placed in safe care and maintenance mode for four weeks, during which we would assess the status of the situation and determine whether to restart the mine or extend the production suspension.”

      “With the impact of COVID-19 continuing to escalate, we have determined that the Cigar Lake workforce will need to remain at its current reduced level for a longer duration.”

      “Cameco will therefore keep the facility in safe care and maintenance for an indeterminate period.”

      https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/cameco-extends-production-suspension-at-cigar-lake

      • On April 18, 2020 at 3:47 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Uranium Market Commentary

        by: Doug Beattie – April 16,2020

        “So the gloves have finally come off, which is good to see. The announcement of a three month closure of the Kazakh mines tells me that yes, God, Kazatomprom finally realizes they have oligopoly pricing power. They finally have the legitimate reason they have needed to tell their joint venture partners, mostly the Russians, French, Chinese and Cameco, to go get stuffed.

        Since Kazatomprom are the operators of most of these mines their closure also means that their partners are suddenly caught out not receiving Uranium they expected to receive for awhile. This likely has more shock value than actual physical value. In other words, I don’t expect much scrambling around by the recipients of Kazakh production to replace this uranium anytime soon.

        “Apart from Cameco and perhaps the French (Orano) they likely have plenty in the supply chain already.But, this provides Kazatomprom with the rare opportunity to stand back while they watch Cameco run the spot price up to slightly less than the price needed for, say,Paladin or Ur-Energy, to lock in contracts to reopen their mines. I would put the ceiling at about $US38/lbin the short term.With a short term price higher than the term price, fuel managers will finally have the cover to go to their bosses to tell them they think it may be a good idea to lock in some future term supply.”

        “This is the sort of pre-condition Cameco has been trying to orchestratefor three or so years. But thischangeof eventsmay representonly a short-termtrading situation. In other words, when Cameco and/or Kazatomprom announce the reopening of their mines, the spot price party is likely over for 2020. ”

        https://docdro.id/SxiZ9qx

    • On April 18, 2020 at 3:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice list of Uranium companies by market cap:

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVyehXzUwAAZCcF?format=png&name=large

  5. On April 18, 2020 at 3:43 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Uranium Surges 31% Amid Shutdowns to Become Year’s Top Commodity

    By Aoyon Ashraf and Joe Deaux – April 17, 2020

    “While most commodities are getting hammered by the coronavirus crisis, uranium prices are skyrocketing.”

    “The radioactive metal used in nuclear fuel has climbed 31% this year, making it the world’s best-performing major commodity. The gains have been spurred by mine shutdowns that have wiped out more than a third of annual global output at a time when demand from power plants has remained relatively stable.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/top-commodity-performer-uranium-gains-even-with-energy-use-weak