Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 26 May, 2020

The S&P is at a key level where bears might have to throw in the towel

Chris Temple joins me today for a look at the S&P and assess the significance of the 3,000 level. With the 200 day Moving Average exactly at this level a daily close and more importantly a weekly close (which we are a long way from) could force bear to throw in the towel and further chase this market. We also comment on the down moves by gold and the US dollar.

Click here to visit Chris’s site to keep up to date with his market comments.

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  1. On May 26, 2020 at 9:36 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Chris Temple: Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation and the Implications for Gold

    Palisade Radio – May 26, 2020

    “Chris Temple returns to the show to discuss his often contrary perspectives on the markets and the Federal Reserve.”

    • On May 27, 2020 at 12:22 am,
      Josey Wales says:

      God is great, why would I listen to man’s wisdom it’s foolishness in here. I warn you with all the supporting scriptures and everyone acts like dogs. You don’t realize this is a fool’s paradise America will soon burn ? God has it all figured, not you !!!! Unfortunately for you, you know nothing, like you should know, like the Bible says. You have nothing figured out !!! You believe you do, however the Bible says God is going take the wise in the world in their own craftiness down into their own destruction. God is not for you at all. You are God’s enemy. You’re all in darkness. God is for me. Because I’m for God. So, if God’s for me, who can be against me the Bible says. God protects me. God will not protect you and America is going to burn with war and major civil unrest. Unless you come to God and give your life to Jesus Christ before it’s too late. Stop deceiving yourselves, come out of your darkness before you fall in the hands of the living God. America will soon burn, war is coming upon this wicked nation. Signs are everywhere, again, stop deceiving yourselves.

      Matthew 7:6 King James Version (KJV)
      6 Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you.

      2 John 10-11 King James Version (KJV)
      10 If there come any unto you, and bring not this doctrine, receive him not into your house, neither bid him God speed:

      11 For he that biddeth him God speed is partaker of his evil deeds

      JUST REMEMBER, YOU WE’RE ALL WARNED. You can’t warn anymore after the fact. War is coming and the signs are everywhere. Only, it’s not going to be somewhere else and we’re not going to be sitting down on our couch watching it on television. It’s going to be right here on American soil. Give your life to Jesus Christ before it’s too late. If you already have, then God will protect you.

      • On May 27, 2020 at 5:55 am,
        Excelsior says:

        > On May 26, 2020 at 10:06 pm,
        Josey Wales says:

        “ I’m certainly not going to post on the investment blogs because I have no interest in all that darkness. Everyone’s already aware of everything and I’m not going to do anything but be harassing everyone even with a link anymore. “

        • On May 27, 2020 at 5:57 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Looks like your amazing proclamation lasted and entire day.

          Are you sure you’re not the reincarnation of the banned Heavy Hitter? Jeez….

      • On May 27, 2020 at 6:35 pm,
        Temple says:

        Glad I outgrew this behavior about a third of a century ago…I actually used to be worse

        • On May 27, 2020 at 6:54 pm,
          Temple says:

          Meaning this Josey guy, that is

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:54 pm,
            Josey Wales says:

            God forbid, I ever out grow thinking that God is not as great as he is. He’s a lot greater than this world because the Bible says the Earth is his footstool creator of all things including the whole universe. God is everything. God sustains life itself and no one would be able to survive without him. The Holy Spirit is what holds back the majority of the evil and wickedness. That won’t always be the case though. This is a very heart-wrenching tragic lesson coming for those that assume that the age of grace will always be with us. Everything will change in the blink of an eye like a thief in the night. It’s going to come when no one expects it during good times and while everyone’s getting they’re free handouts universal basic income. Full blown socialism that turns into a complete catastrophic event. Take a ride down history Lane.

            No one’s going to be able to change that. We are past the point of no return.

  2. On May 26, 2020 at 9:37 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Funny…………gold…..$1712……..silver $17.12

    • On May 26, 2020 at 9:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold:Silver ratio at an even 100 then.

      Brien Lundin & Chris Marcus: Is it Silver’s Time to Shine?

      INN – May 21, 2020

      “To help investors navigate the silver market, Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, and Chris Marcus, founder of Arcadia Economics, recently joined the Investing News Network for a conversation on what investors should know about the precious metal.”

      • On May 26, 2020 at 9:45 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        How many times do you see that……Ratio is coming down….silver getting hot… 🙂

        • On May 26, 2020 at 9:49 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Too many to count, but it just seemed interesting to note how perfectly the pricing matched for the G.S.R. in your post above.

          I’m not a huge Gold:Silver ratio fanatic by any stretch, but I do see a better scenario setting up for Silver now, as Gold is cooling off a bit, which should bring the ratio down a bit.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 9:55 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto……….I agree………note taken……. 🙂

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:37 am,
            Matthew says:

            The GSR’s movements are not without rhyme or reason and the conditions that underpinned gold’s outperformance have been priced-in and are now mostly gone. From here on, any outperformance that gold delivers versus silver will be countertrend in nature. The same goes for gold versus the gold/silver miners. Gold went “ten-bagger” (900%) versus the XAU between 1993 and 2015 and has already fallen by as much as 50% versus the XAU since that trend ended. It will fall at least 80% more from here in the years ahead and probably more than that.

      • On May 26, 2020 at 10:07 am,
        Matthew says:

        Silver’s been shining since the GSR blow-off top in March and will outperform gold for many years to come.
        The golden GSR bubble is done:

        • On May 26, 2020 at 10:09 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I think you are correct…….Silver is looking good……Keeping all I got…. 🙂

        • On May 26, 2020 at 10:16 am,
          Matthew says:

          The move down for gold versus silver is just getting started yet both metals are going much higher versus the dollar.
          The rest of this year belongs to the silver stocks, especially the juniors but the gold stocks will also continue to do very well.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:30 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I think , you are spot on………

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:59 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I agree aboutthe rest of the year belonging to the Silver stocks and have moved things around over the last few months to increase my Silver exposure some by trimming back gains in the Gold stocks. I could seem them both doing well, and both moving higher together, but Silver having more torque and a smaller concentrated market that can move up quicker when the money comes pouring in.

            I believe those with a nice exposure to a basket of Silver stocks or even the ETF SILJ will be very happy by this time next year.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:13 am,
            Matthew says:

            SILJ has already beat GDX by as much as 57% since late March and is just getting started…

          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:15 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:33 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m excited to see where Silver miners may run this part of the bull cycle.

            Sitting on a little dry powder to deploy, and plan on using most of it for Silver stocks, but keeping a bit for Gold & Uranium companies as well.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
            Marty says:

            Still @ 23% cash. Just added to SILV @ $7.96. Sold a bunch @$9.09 & $9.16

        • On May 26, 2020 at 10:50 am,
          Matthew says:
          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:01 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Seems quite reasonable. +70 Time for Silver to play a little catchup.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:20 am,
            Matthew says:

            70 is a long ways down but that March blow-off probably gave us just what we need to get it done and is already behaving that way. Such spikes rarely end with a drift lower; they tend to end the way they began: abruptly and followed by decisive quick moves.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 11:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Symmetry in force to reach more an equilibrium.

            What goes up must come down.

        • On May 26, 2020 at 12:37 pm,
          Charles says:

          I am waiting paitently for Silver’s big show. It seems like we are getting a bit of consolidation here including several of the silver miners. I thought we were going to get a little bit more before summer, but now I am starting to doubt it. June looks like it could be a soft month.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 12:44 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Based on the weekly charts and other things, I bet June will be a great month. Maybe IPT will fill last week’s gap tomorrow:

          • On May 26, 2020 at 12:46 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On May 26, 2020 at 12:59 pm,
            Charles says:

            Maybe that is what USAS is doing today. Brixton has also been weak last week and starting out this week. But for now I have not sold any shares in any silvers. Matthew, do you own any Silver Bull?

          • On May 26, 2020 at 2:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            If that gap in IPT gets filled in the near future, I made add one final tranche there.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 6:20 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Charles, I do not own Silver Bull. The chart looks ok but be ready for a financing announcement during the next show of strength (if management is smart). With roughly $1.6 million in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of January, the company is sure to raise capital soon if it gets the chance.

            Unless I thought it had some company-maker drill holes pending, I would buy more Brixton before Silver Bull. That happens to be a self-serving opinion but I have enough exposure to Mexico and like that Brixton has plenty of cash as well as assets in the ground. Exploration plays with no such assets usually see excitement late in a bull market when speculative appetites are running wild. I mention Brixton because the two have similar market caps and no production.

            Perhaps more pressing than a probable financing are the 18.3 million warrants outstanding with less than a year remaining to exercise at 15 cents. Not advice but I’d be an aggressive seller on the first significant move above that level and probably sooner.
            If exercised, those warrants would bring in roughly $2.75M and dilute you about 8%. Not necessarily a big deal if silver is flying and the company has a great property but something to be aware of.

            Silver Bull has been around since November, 1993 and has never generated revenue while incurring an accumulated deficit of $130 million.

            At least the great name could attract a lot of interest years from now when Joe Blow shows up. I hope Brixton Metals will be Brixton Silver (or gold) by then!

          • On May 26, 2020 at 6:33 pm,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Matthew. Sounds like a pass.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 7:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, Silver Bull is one I’m looking at for after they finance their next phase of the journey, but from an optionality standpoint they have one of the larger undeveloped Silver/Zinc/Lead deposits on the planet based on their resource estimate of around 442 Million Silver equivalent ounces, coming in only behind MAG Silver, Discovery Metals, and Bear Creek based on the size of their deposit.

            However, as we’ve pointed out on here before, a better name for them would likely be Zinc Bull, as if their ounces were converted to a Zinc Resource with a Silver credit, it would also be one of the largest undeveloped deposits out there. This is why prominent big boy base metals producer South 32 has a JV partnership with Silver Bull — for the Zinc.

            If there is a rise in both Silver and eventually in Zinc & Lead this will be a perfect storm for Silver Bull in that kind of environment, and a likely takeover suitor would be South 32.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 7:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Check out this table from Southern Silver’s corporate presentation that shows most of the key Silver deposits in both over all size and grade in Silver Equivalent resources:


          • On May 26, 2020 at 7:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            At 50g/t, silver is relegated to byproduct status but the value could be meaningful when silver is much (MUCH) higher.
            One ton of Silver Bull’s rock currently contains about $70 worth of zinc and $28 of silver. If those figures were reversed, SB would probably be trading at triple the current market cap (just a guess).

          • On May 26, 2020 at 9:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I see Silver Bull as more like a Trevali (TV) where it will suffer while Zinc & Lead prices are low, but it does have a silver co-credit kicker which will only get more valuable over time, but ultimately it is an optionality play on higher metals prices, and in particular Zinc.

            They should just change their name to Zinc Bull, and market the project that way with Silver as a helpful co-credit, in the same way certain Nickel or Copper projects take advantage of Silver/Gold/Platinum.

            They do have their deposit broken out as both a Silver equivalent resource and a Zinc equivalent resource on their presentation, so that investors could interpret the economics and resource either direction, but ultimately its a really large lower grade base metal deposit, and still seems likely to get acquired to develop down the road.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Is Trevali also just 50g/t? That’s a terrible grade for silver and keep in mind that the value I gave SB’s rock did not account for recovery and we know it’s probably not going to be close to 100%.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Well Trevali is a Zinc company, not a Silver company, with 4 operating Zinc mines, but my point was that they simply list the Silver component at a co-credit. I believe Silver Bull would be better off using this same approach.


          • On May 27, 2020 at 6:11 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Ex and Matthew for the discussion of Silver Bull. I was hoping to add one more silver producer/explorer with a large economic resource to the mix preferably in Canada or the U.S. I already own too much Brixton on a percentage basis and planned to reduce some of my initial buys in the .15 cent region. On a percentage basis I now own more Brixton than Impact, so maybe I will just add there, but like Matthew said, between USAS, Impact and a few other mexican silver miners I probably have enough exposure to Mexico. I have thought about MAG and Bear Creek in the past so maybe those would be good options. Or maybe I’ll just add more to Dolly Varden. Thanks again for the info.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 7:25 am,
            Matthew says:

            Charles, I hope you got filled this morning. IPT is already a nickel off its low.
            Despite my focus on buying more Brixton lately, my IPT position is still about 95% larger.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 8:16 am,
            Charles says:

            Hi Matthew – I am actually pretty happy with where I am at with Impact. On ISVLF I still think it has a little downside left. I could be wrong, but would only add on a more significant pull back which I realize might not happen.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:01 am,
            Matthew says:

            Hi Charles, it sure will go lower if silver does. I’ve been surprised by the aggressive buying so far but volume hasn’t been impressive which bodes well for you getting a better deal.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:12 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks for the chart. Brixton sure is taking a beating this morning. It looks tempting, but I am going to wait to see what the afternoon brings.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:34 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Charles and thanks for the response back on the Silver miners.

            If you are looking for Silver companies without the exposure to Mexico, then yes, as you mentioned (DV) Dolly Varden is a good choice expanding their Silver development resource in the Golden Triangle of B.C.

            I’d also recommend (BHS) Bayhorse as US/Canada focused Silver developer and near term producer.

            Another Silver developer that has been moving nicely is (AUN) Aurcana Corp. Their small but extremely high-grade R.V. Mine is getting ready to go into production this year.

            Of course there is my favorite pick of the North American litter (AXU) Alexco, but if you don’t have a position in their neighbors (MMG) Metallic Minerals, that is another great way to play Silver exposure in Canada. MMG had some absolutely bonanza grade exploration results this week.

            Good luck in your investing amigo!

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:48 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Ex. I do own some Metallic but not a large position. It was up over double after yesterday, and have been thinking about adding due to that new drill result they announced a little while ago. Do you expect AXU to eventually make a bid to aquire them. That would be one heck of a deposit if they did combine.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:56 am,
            Matthew says:

            As you probably guessed, I bought more Brixton today.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 10:03 am,
            Excelsior says:

            With regards to MMG Metallic, Greg Johnson has mentioned in interviews that they’d be open to doing a toll milling arrangement with AXU Alexco if they don’t find a large resource. However, he also said if they keep hitting the high grade extensions at Keno Hill (which they clearly are), that they’d be more apt to partner with a larger producer and build their own stand alone mill, since the road access, power, water, and ease of permitting are already there from decades of prior mining and Alexco’s efforts.

            I’m sure if Alexco made an offer to buy them out they’d consider it, but AXU is busy at present getting all their ducks in a row to go into production by year end.

            Honestly, I’d rather see MMG keep doing the exploration work to increase and expand their deposit, and work on their other nearby Gold/Silver deposit some as well before getting anywhere close to a company offering to buy them out. They still have room to be a multibagger on great exploration work first, and then they can get into the development path a bit deeper.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 10:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I want to see MMG keep doing great exploration work like this and keep hitting the bonanza grades over wide intercepts, as they’ll have a stand alone monster deposit, and likely bring in a larger JV partner.

            If AXU ends up grabbing them early, that won’t hurt my feelings either, but I’m not invested in MMG for that outcome.


            (MMG) Metallic Minerals Announces High-Grade Silver Samples and 3D Modelling at its West Keno Targets on the Keno Silver Project including Formo, Silver Queen and Duncan Creek
            26 May 2020

            > 7,459 g/t $Silver Equivalent over 45 m
            > 33 m lateral width grading 1,795 Ag Eq
            > 44 m lateral width grading 2,258 Ag Eq


          • On May 27, 2020 at 2:24 pm,
            Charles says:

            Yes Matthew – I knew you would be buying more Brixton hand over fist. I would have liked to when it was down 10% today, but I would have had to sell something else in my taxable account and I am pretty balanced out except for Brixton. I got a little carried away earlier this year and it is now my largest position in shares and in value. If anything I will eventually need to trim back although its position size shank a bit today as most of my other shares were up on the day. Nice turnaround to end the day. I am still not totally convinced we are off to the races as the weekly bollinger bands look to wide to me. In any event, I am fully invested and will enjoy the ride if it comes.

            Ex – Thanks for your thoughts on Metalic. I think I will put some focus on it.

        • On May 26, 2020 at 1:16 pm,
          Temple says:

          That means, Matthew, that you 1. believe the Fed really has vanquished deflation, 2. There will be no virus re-occurence/renewed lock downs, etc., 3. The broad stock market will keep moving up to and past all-time highs 4. China and Europe will plod along and not implode and 5. The USD Index — and near-record Dollar Index on a trade-weighted basis — will notably and meaningfully reverse.

          WHEN I come to believe all that myself, I’ll concede that silver will be a relative outperformer compared to gold, which if all that above really does happen, will be bringing up the rear compared to LOTS of hard assets.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 2:15 pm,
            confused says:

            Now Chris,
            would you be willing to entertain the notion that China might step in a print a few trillion a la Fed and help add help stoke a silver spike too? Copper would blow up. Surely they will have to play ball with all the other central banks in the coming months as Covid-Round -Two appears. After all it’s only paper.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 2:31 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Mr T – All of those conditions do not have to be met for Silver to outperform Gold.

            Silver has been outperforming Gold all quarter when none of those conditions are met.

            Technically it has more catching up to do with Gold, and it will likely take out it’s 2016 surge high of $21.23 later this year without that list of criteria being met.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 2:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            In 2016 Silver and the Silver stocks outperformed the precious metals counterparts in Gold and Gold Stocks quite handsomely without those criteria being met.

            What will drive the price higher is investment demand in the monetary metals, not the industrial metal backdrop.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 4:16 pm,
            Matthew says:

            No Chris, I always knew that the Fed would do whatever it takes to destroy the currency and now the market is figuring that out. Deflation was never the problem that the deflationists think it is because the Fed was never going to allow it. I’m talking about the real definition of inflation: the increase in the supply of currency/credit. The Fed cannot create wealth or prosperity out of thin air but it can ALWAYS inflate (and therefore debase) its currency. How do you think the Dow made it to nearly triple its real all time high (that happened 20 years ago)?

            For various reasons, I do not think the Fed’s actions will have the same effect on the stock market as they’ve had for the last 20 years. Instead, I see their efforts making life more expensive while the economy remains stagnant at best (I repeat, at best). Trump or whatever chump is in charge will go full FDR and then some (and the drooling class will cheer). Those who understand it will see the train wreck for what it is while the masses happily give up what’s left of their freedoms.

            The dollar has not been strong at all in real terms which is why gold is up nearly 7-fold since 2001 and 35% just since one year ago. It won’t be long before it begins its fall in relative terms as well but that does not have to occur in order for the Fed to have its way with it. The debt problem is global so the plan could very well be to take down every currency simultaneously, at least roughly. If that’s the case, the dollar could lose any amount of its purchasing power without giving up its current 100-ish USDX handle. In addition, such a strategy would benefit the planners since most would not recognize the decline in the buck unless/until the USDX falls. That’s a very valuable benefit when the powers that be are wrecking the currency at record speed.

            Gold is ugly and short term oversold versus silver currently but looks like it will go even lower before it has a good bounce.


            Future blips of gold outperformance might line up with future covid bs or stock market weakness but they’ll be tempests in a teapot.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 6:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Great points on the FED not allowing a full deflation, and on more of a stagflation type of scenario with weak economy, inflation in credit supply and certain asset classes, and yet a low to zero interest rate environment.

            In addition, the point you made there and have made before about the US dollar relative to the basket of other currencies, being much different than the US dollar relative to Gold is very key to understanding the charade being played.

            Yes, the dollar may stay levitated in the high 90s or low 100s relative to other fiat currencies in the dollar index (that are trashing their economies, increasing debt loads, and printing money at similar rates to the US in a race to the bottom), but that just presents the illusion of “strong” dollar.

            The best way to view the Greenback is in relation to “real money” the Yellow Metal. Compared to Gold, the Dollar is losing purchasing power, and has been crashing or falling in value compared to real money for decades. Sure the Dollar may go up in nominal terms compared to other currencies while Gold is going up at the same time, but if Gold is going up in Dollar terms, then it is outpacing the Dollar, and the Dollar is falling in real terms compared to Gold.

            This is indisputable and this same effect where Gold is rising relative to all other currencies, and demonstrates why the barbarous relic is still one of the best stores of value and purchasing power on the planet.

          • On May 26, 2020 at 8:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Sound money rewards virtue and punishes vice. It’s that simple and the central planners won’t have it.

            When was the last time a high school teacher, university professor, Hollywood or the MSM cast savings and living within one’s means in a positive light? When was the last time the same bunch promoted thrift and investment and warned of the pitfalls of debt and consumption? The fact is, the central planners (which own the “right” just as much as the left) are at war with the sound behaviors that provide us with prosperity and real freedom. Just research the real meaning of “sustainable development.”

            Democracy will be used to finish off the good guys once the majority is dependent on the wealth redistributing powers of the government (and it looks like we’re there). To add insult to injury, the good guys will be (and long have been) successfully vilified and demonized while the looters are held up (and long have been) as virtuous heroes rather than the subzeros they really are.

    • On May 26, 2020 at 11:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Silver readies for biggest monthly gain in nearly 7 years
      May 22, 2020 – Myra P. Saefong

      Silver has far outperformed gold so far in May as improving demand has set the metal up for its biggest monthly percentage climb in close to seven years.

      “Silver has a well-documented habit of coming late to gold’s party, only to then dramatically outperform the yellow metal,” said Brien Lundin, editor and publisher of Gold Newsletter.

      “Once gold has somewhat run its course and starts to look expensive, a lot of people turn to the cheaper counterparty, namely silver, which has attracted fund and investor money,” said David Govett, head of precious metals at commodity brokerage Marex Spectron.

      “Quarter to date, silver futures are up around 25%, while gold pales in comparison with its nearly 9% rise.”

      • On May 26, 2020 at 2:26 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold, Silver, Miners Teater On The Brink Of A Breakout

        @TheTechnicalTraders on 20 May 2020

        • On May 26, 2020 at 2:56 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Dr Marc Faber: How Is Silver $15 With Unlimited Fed QE?

          Arcadia Economics – May 17, 2020 #VIDEO

          • On May 26, 2020 at 3:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bob Moriarty | It’s Time to Buy Silver!

            “In this interview, Bob Moriarty of 321gold sits down with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable to discuss a number of important topics…”

            > Maurice Jackson: – “Well, I think what a lot of investors were looking at, with all the printing and devaluation of the currency, the immediate response was silver should jump, gold should jump. And gold has actually made a little move, but silver has kind of remained stagnant. Which metals have your attention, at least, and why right now?”

            >> Bob Moriarty: – “In 5,000 years, the highest the gold-silver ratio ever got to was 101 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. In the middle of March, it went up to 121:1.”

            “Silver is the easiest call for an investment that I have ever seen. Period. I don’t care that gold’s at the top. I don’t care if gold stays sideways and I don’t give a care if gold goes down. Silver is going to gain value substantially against gold. It literally is the best time in 5,000 years to be buying silver. And I am not a silver bug. Silver bugs are nuts. I mean, they’re bat crazy. They worship silver. Gold and silver are not something to be worshiped. They represent real value, and I believe that we will go back to a gold and silver standard, but there’s nothing you need to worship about it. But as an investment, silver is a good deal.”


      • On May 26, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Silver prices to soar by 40%+, here’s the case says analyst
        David Lin – May 11, 2020

        “Silver prices are poised to break out to the upside in the magnitude of over 40%, owing to fundamentals created by COVID-19 and to an excessively high gold-silver ratio that is expected to mean-revert, according to Nathan Rines, writer for Seeking Alpha.”

        “Technical charts show that the gold-silver ratio now stands far above the historical average, with a reversion to the mean soon being a certainty, Rines said in a recent report.”

        “It is clear that silver is on sale,” Rines said. “A regression back inside the 3-sigma bound within a few months is almost a slam dunk. Pulling back to the 2-sigma by the end of the year is reasonably likely. And a pullback to the 1-sigma line within 2 years, while far from certain, is more probable than not.”

        “A reversion to just one standard deviation above the historical mean would imply a price target for SLV of $19.79, a 38% increase from current levels of $14.38. A reversion to the arithmetic mean would imply a target of $24.09, up 67% from today’s levels.”

    • On May 26, 2020 at 3:32 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Here are some good thoughts, from contributor @ValueInvest, about a potential short-term pullback in the mining stocks before the next leg higher:


      @ValueInvest – “$Gold and $silver mining stocks are having a bad day today. They will have a bad week, and maybe several weeks of declining prices. So is the rally over and should we all sell or mining stocks and start buying the S&P500. Nope. The pattern that is forming in $GDX is perfect and is being monitored by many professional investors and traders. $GDX broke out over a 7-year long resistance line at $31. The problem is that it broke out on low volume (no conviction, no confidence, no indication of large institutional buying). It ‘must’ retrace back down to $31, to blow off some steam, recharge, kick out the weak hands and then prepare for lift off.

      “You may be frustrated to see your $gold and $silver stocks decline for the next few weeks, but suck it up, this is necessary. Weak hands (amateurs, emotional traders buying and selling stocks in the heat of the moment) will sell in this decline, they need to get out. Strong hands (professional and institutional investors/traders, value investors) will remain invested and are now placing buy-limits around the $31 area on $GDX. This scenario should see a decline on low volume (indication of emotional amateurs selling), and a rise at $31 on high volume (indication of large institutions buying).”

      “So, what do you do for the next few weeks. If you are a longer-term value investor in $gold and $silver stocks, do nothing, just wait it out. You are invested in the best industry given the current money printing era gone crazy. I have literally felt the inflation in the grocery store in the past 2 months. If you are a trader and you took some profits last week, congrats, now prepare to get back in your favorite $gold and $silver mining stocks at the moment when $GDX revisits $31. After a moderate decline of a few weeks, we will see a major rally in the $gold and $silver stocks. “

    • On May 27, 2020 at 7:18 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The Truth About Technical Analysis, Precious Metals Correction Day #5

      by @Goldfinger on 27 May 2020

      “It’s true that chart patterns morph and conditions are constantly changing in markets, so it is also true that our interpretations of charts should also change often. There is nothing wrong with that. In fact, staying stuck in a single interpretation would be the real mistake. A costly mistake.”

      “The truth is that charts don’t tell us what will happen in the future (accounting statements and “news” doesn’t tell us the future either). Charts are best used to effectively manage risk, and to help gauge potential profit. Charts also help us to clearly understand trends on different time frames along with important support and resistance levels (price levels of substantial supply and demand).”

  3. On May 26, 2020 at 9:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Rewinding the Tape
    By John Mauldin May 22, 2020

    “Long before this virus problem, Ian was saying the world is in a “geopolitical recession.” The old order has been breaking down without a clear replacement, leaving what he calls a “G-Zero World.”

    Part of the problem relates to a Milton Friedman quote I’ve used: “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”

    “The Federal Reserve is, in my view, going far beyond its actual mission and is trying to control market outcomes. Which means we don’t really have “markets” as such anymore. This has to stop but I see no chance the Fed will change course voluntarily.”

    “The sudden ejection of millions from their jobs exposed huge shortcomings in the US safety net programs. A top-to-bottom overhaul might let them work better and cost less.”

  4. On May 26, 2020 at 9:41 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Chris……is spot on…with the sheeple …….

    • On May 26, 2020 at 9:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      What Re-Opening Success or Failure Means For Metals

      AheadOfTheHerd – 2020.05.21

      “The way I see it there are two scenarios, each with about a 50% chance of coming to pass. The first is that attempts to re-start shuttered economies are successful, the US and China iron out trade war wrinkles and militarily the pot comes off hard simmer. We know that stock markets are hanging on every word of new treatments and/or vaccines. If enough progress, globally, can be made in lifting restrictions, getting people working again, businesses re-hiring, without resulting in a second wave of cases, we just might get household spending going, business confidence would improve, and economies would return to growth.”

      “Call this the bad-for-gold scenario.”

      “We all know that gold loves a crisis and hates tranquility. A return to some semblance of normal would very likely knock gold back, probably to under $1,700, and suck some of the air out of recently inflated gold stocks.”

      “In the second scenario, things don’t return to normal; in fact they get worse. Governments, bowing to pressure from citizens tired of being controlled, and afraid of losing their comparative trade advantages, re-open too soon. They underestimate the power of the coronavirus to come roaring back, which it does, re-infecting populations, triggering new lockdowns, putting the pressure back onto outstretched health care systems and exhausted front-line health workers.”

      “As the country with the most cases and deaths, the United States is most vulnerable to this scenario.”

      “Tensions between China and the US might not ease, they could easily start to boil over. If it happens, and most viruses come back for a second round that is worse than the first – look for gold to go on another run, possibly even testing 2011’s $1,900 all-time highs.”

      “Call it the good-for-gold scenario.”

  5. On May 26, 2020 at 9:53 am,
    Excelsior says:

    This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Mortgage Deferrals Soar, As Government Warns Young Homebuyers

    Better Dwelling – May 24, 2020

    “The CMHC, Canada’s national housing agency, had a warning for young homebuyers: Be realistic about your debt. As a cautionary tale, the agency’s CEO walked the federal government through a scenario where a buyer leaving a 5% downpayment, sees their home price drop by 5%. After all fees, this works out to a massive 300% loss, which the homeowner would be on the hook for. Why the warning over falling prices now? The organization expects home prices to drop 9 to 18 percent over the next 12 months. They also don’t expect home prices to recover to 2019 values until 2022 – at the earliest.”

    • On May 26, 2020 at 10:08 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      If, the home prices fall, they better hope, they find a hole with some gold in it, on their property….. 🙂 Just of off set their loss….lol
      Where are all those Chinese buyers…. 🙂

      • On May 26, 2020 at 11:05 am,
        Excelsior says:

        This may time out perfectly to where as the economic reality sets in to the financial charades the governments and central banks have been playing, that Gold & Silver assets keep going up relative to their fiat counterparts for the next 2-3 years, and those profits can be converted back into fiat to purchase real estate that has corrected down to much lower valuations.

        Make you money in PM equities for a few years, and then store those profits in depressed real estate for it’s next cycle.

        Just a thought….

  6. On May 26, 2020 at 10:19 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The longer the paralysis we are seeing lasts, the more urgent should be the demand for some measure of American economic planning which might prevent such disasters from recurring, without handing over undue power to an incompetent government bureaucracy. However the public is not responding because they believe government is the answer, so “The Ship Of Fools” sails on until like The Titanic it meets it’s Waterloo. DT

    • On May 26, 2020 at 10:29 am,
      Dick Tracy says:
      • On May 26, 2020 at 11:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Brazil movie clip – A Receipt for Your Husband (1985)

        Brazil constitutes Terry Gilliam’s [one of the forces behind Monty Python] enormously ambitious follow-up to his 1981 Time Bandits. To create this wild, visually audacious satire, Gilliam combines dystopian elements from Orwell, Huxley and Kafka (plus a central character who mirrors Walter Mitty) with his own trademark, Monty Python-esque, jet black British humor and his gift for extraordinary visual invention. The results are thoroughly unprecedented in the cinema.

    • On May 26, 2020 at 12:22 pm,
      John Kruschke says:

      The masses will always trust the Socialist propaganda from the Intellectuals. Ludwig Von Mises 1922.
      In 1929, Edward Bernays, who wrote the book “Propaganda” did an ad campaign for Lucky Strike Cigarettes to encourage women to smoke.
      The ad campaign labeled cigarettes as “Torches of Freedom”
      Not much has changed.

  7. On May 26, 2020 at 11:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Decline And New World Order

    @TheTechnicalTraders – Chris Vermeulen – 26 May 2020

    • On May 26, 2020 at 11:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The Changing World Order: The Big Cycles Over the Last 500 Years

      Ray Dalio Commentary – May 22, 2020

      “In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war. Out of these debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”

      • On May 26, 2020 at 12:05 pm,
        John Kruschke says:

        Here is a good article about Ray.
        Don’t let the title scare you.

        • On May 26, 2020 at 1:48 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes. This was a good passage:

          “Dalio rose out of the rubble changed. He set about creating a method whereby ideas could be tested. He knew he didn’t know how to be successful so he rebuilt his business on the basis of teamwork. The combined effort and imagination of his team together could surface the most successful plan — more than he could have imagined or created alone. Instead of being the sole idea broker, he became the referee in surfacing the best ideas of the team and creating a method of testing them. And instead of filtering the ideas on the basis of whether or not he liked them, he created an objective system whereby the best idea won the day, whether he liked it or not, or thought it the best idea or not. Because, Dalio says, we have an incredible propensity toward self-delusion.”

          “That’s how a guy who is less than average (he says) became so successful.”

      • On May 26, 2020 at 12:44 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Ex, When Paul Volcker was The Chairman Of The Board he was wise enough to know how to apply the bridle to the economy and strong enough to keep his grip on it. Now if they diagnose the condition of the county’s business the public will not respond to the treatment. Give us Greenspan yelled the mob, it is our money and we want it now. DT

        • On May 26, 2020 at 1:34 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Central bank printing presses might be in overdrive, but inflation is not the real threat here
          Martin Pelletier – May 25, 2020 Financial Post

          “Many are underestimating the real risk that the economy may not return to pre-crisis levels for some time.”

          “Central bank printing presses are in over-drive, interest rates are flirting with going negative, the daily spending announcements by government leaders continue racking up tremendous amounts of debt and stock markets appear to be well on the road to recovery.”

          “For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve has seen its balance sheet grow to nearly US$7 trillion since the outbreak, 10-year Treasuries yield a paltry 0.65 per cent, the U.S. deficit was $738 billion in April alone, and the S&P 500 is down only 9.5 per cent this year, well up from its lows in March, when it was down 32 per cent. On a 12-month basis, the S&P 500 is actually still up more than three per cent.”

    • On May 26, 2020 at 11:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Chuck Jaffe Talks Technical Analysis on Money Life – Indexes & Metals

      by @TheTechnicalTraders – Chris Vermeulen – 26 May 2020

      “Chuck Jaffe, the host of Money Life, is a veteran financial journalist and nationally syndicated financial columnist whose work appears in newspapers from coast to coast. Today he talks with Chris Vermeulen.”

    • On May 26, 2020 at 1:39 pm,
      Excelsior says:
  8. On May 26, 2020 at 12:26 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    Ex. Any thoughts on golden valleys share consolidation plan to get a US listing????….I was good with the slow steady climb without potential shorts like mcewen has suffered(although they deserved it based on their lack of delivering vs the promised expectations)

    • On May 26, 2020 at 1:53 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I agree with you regarding MUX, but with GZZ they have done a better job of the slow steady climb as you mentioned. In general, I’m not a big fan of share consolidations, but to get a listing on the big US boards is one of the few reasons that makes sense to me – like what Americas Gold & Silver did to get their USAS or what Equinox did to get EQX.

      • On May 26, 2020 at 1:54 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (GZZ) (GLVMF) Golden Valley Mines Announces Share Consolidation

        by @newsfile on 26 May 2020

      • On May 26, 2020 at 8:27 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        I guess my hesitation is with management and the lack of news flow that has existed in the past. Hopefully that will change with a US listing

        • On May 26, 2020 at 10:10 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. It seemed like Glenn was coasting and mostly just hosting PDAC.

          Now with a Dual listing, and the clear success of the companies in the Royalty space, maybe Golden Valley and Abitibi Royalties will really pick up a larger audience, and with Golden Valley, more regular updates on it’s basket of JVs on some project, strategic investments into other explorers, and royalty valuations on a their key projects based on projected production metrics at current metals prices.

          Here’s the (GZZ) (GLVMF) Golden Valley Mines Corporate Presentation from April:

          • On May 26, 2020 at 10:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That presentation did do a better job of unpacking the Abitibi Royalty spinout model, the Val d’ Or and International Prospect Ventures spin outs, and the JV/NSRs on their projects optioned to O3 Mining, Bonterra, and Sirios.

  9. On May 26, 2020 at 1:12 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Gold down thirty dollars per but my portfolio is up 2%. Bullish sign?

    • On May 26, 2020 at 2:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice to see the miners outperformance.

  10. On May 26, 2020 at 1:15 pm,
    Charles says:

    Wolfster – Not trying to answer for Ex., but I for one like the idea. Metalla sure got a boost when they did the same thing earlier this year and longer term it will get Golden Valley many more looks. I might have to buy some more now in anticipation.

    • On May 26, 2020 at 1:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hey Charles, Yes agreed and great point about Metalla doing it for the dual listing. I hold Maverix that also has the dual listing. Sandstorm, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold, and Franco Nevada all have dual listings as well.

      If you are going to be in the royalty space and really attract the US investors, then having the dual listing is a big help. Let’s do it!

  11. On May 26, 2020 at 2:36 pm,
    Wolfster says:

    Thanks Charles. Appreciate the input. Especially the example of Metalla.

  12. On May 26, 2020 at 2:49 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (MQR) (MRQRF)Monarch Gold Receives Excellent Results From New Tailings Study On The Wasamac Gold Project

    May 20, 2020

    “This study is of great interest to us, as it indicates that the Wasamac tailings will be significantly less harmful to the environment than if they were acid-generating,” said Jean-Marc Lacoste, President and Chief Executive Officer of Monarch. “In addition, the potential to neutralize acid on existing tailings facilities from Wasamac tailings suggests that Wasamac could be an obvious economic choice for several mills (see the map).”

  13. On May 26, 2020 at 7:21 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Silver Bugs are bat crazy, they probably sleep upside down! DT

  14. On May 27, 2020 at 6:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MKO) Mako Mining – Infill Drilling at San Albino Complete, Highlighted by Intercepts of 69.99 g/t Gold Over 1.8 Meters and 47.89 g/t Gold Over 2.6 Meters; MDA Hired to Update 43-101 Resource Estimate at San Albino in Q3

    27 May 2020

    • On May 27, 2020 at 7:15 am,
      David says:

      Maybe the “down algo” will read this sometime later today. Oh that’s right, it’s not their job.

      • On May 27, 2020 at 7:19 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, algos are not deep thinkers, and likely theren’t many algos set up for Nicaraguan gold developers. 🙂

  15. On May 27, 2020 at 6:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (EQX) Equinox Gold Receives $145 Million from Exercise of Warrants

    27 May 2020

  16. On May 27, 2020 at 7:21 am,
    Marty says:

    Replaced and then some SILV @ $7.63

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:09 am,
      Marty says:

      CASH – 8%

  17. On May 27, 2020 at 7:36 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Mining Raises $12.3 Million From the Exercise of Share Purchase Warrants

    @nasdaq on 26 May 2020

  18. On May 27, 2020 at 7:52 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Hey guys sorry for yesterdays call a bit premature! Nothing has changes in regards to trend and going higher. Shad/ex was correct in his concerns about 2-3 days or two or three weeks correction. I was pretty fast on the jump but matt seemed to be in line with few days.

    I won’t open my big mouth today, gosh i feel the “plunge protection team” is watching me as gary would say.

    I like the action im seeing in gold. I believe matt would be a buyer on days like this or corrections like yesterday today.

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:22 am,
      Matthew says:

      Glen, the action seems to be what we talked about yesterday (privately) and I like it too. Definitely a day for buying and the heavy buying near the lows was obvious.
      GLD fell right to a fork support that also happens to be at the level of the pre-crash high in early March:

      • On May 27, 2020 at 11:12 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        Bang on my friend!

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:26 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hey Glenfidish – thanks for the hat tip, and yes, as mentioned last week, I’ve been looking for further pullbacks this week to start deploying some dry powder. I did a bit of nibbling this morning but am still looking to go out poaching. 🙂

      Cheers mate!

      • On May 27, 2020 at 9:47 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’m starting to eyeball Compass Gold mate, and have a stink bid on the limit waiting to get filled. 😮

      • On May 27, 2020 at 11:12 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        Hey pal,

        I couldn’t do it without you and your calls as well..

        • On May 27, 2020 at 11:34 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks. I didn’t realize how close to Hummingbird Resources (HUM.L) that Compass Gold was, and I have a nice stake in them. I’m hoping Hummingbird will acquire Compass to bring that land their projects into the mix.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 5:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m checking out their video overview which was well done:


          • On May 27, 2020 at 5:18 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Apparently there are some angry investors over at because they are de-emphasizing Farabakoura moving forward to work on other projects. I’m still getting up to speed, but if a company with multiple properties is looking for something on a exploration model, and don’t find it, then they need to move on to other projects, so if that is what is happening then I commend them.

            I will say one reservation I have is Joe Conway. I didn’t care for the way he handled things at the end with Primero at all and he got on BNN and was completely disingenuous about their strategy and said they were fine for the turn around, only to gut and raid Primero in the next few months. He’s going to have to do a damn good job to earn my respect back on this one.

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:26 am,
      Matthew says:

      On Thursday I thought that this pullback would last for days, not weeks and think so.
      On Saturday I said the weekly charts look great but also this:

      On May 23, 2020 at 9:43 pm,
      Matthew says:
      However, the daily chart says caution (short term):

  19. On May 27, 2020 at 8:37 am,
    Matthew says:

    I think JAG already bottomed with this morning’s quick test of the 200 and 233 week MAs. Volume is already 2.2 million shares…

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, JAG is one I’ve been nibbling at today for sure. Looks like a good spot to accumulate.

    • On May 27, 2020 at 8:42 am,
      Matthew says:

      But even if it did bottom, the daily chart strongly suggests further selling will keep a lid on it for awhile.

      • On May 27, 2020 at 8:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        What are your thoughts on AXU Alexco based on where things are at?

        I was considering adding some into the strength, but was concerned about it breaking below the KAMA. Seems like it may have a bit more bearishness to work off.

        • On May 27, 2020 at 8:46 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Correction: That should have said adding some into the “weakness” (not strength).

        • On May 27, 2020 at 8:56 am,
          Matthew says:

          It seems like it will fill last week’s gap so I’d wait for that or buy a little now and twice as much on the gap fill if it happens.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 8:59 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, it may be best to split the allocation into 2 more tranches. 1 in this range, and a bigger one at the gap window. Thanks!

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:25 am,
            Matthew says:

            I assumed you already have a good position because if you don’t, I would consider being more aggressive. Maybe buy two-thirds now and one-third on the gap fill.
            Of course I am also assuming you are as bullish as I am and believe that the risk lies in being out of the mining shares. Know thyself, as always.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good thoughts Matthew. Yeah, Alexco is my 5th largest Silver position, but I was just thinking of adding a bit to it that I trimmed back on the 18th. If things ran from here in the Silver miners I’d be more than ready for the ride, but just looking to deploy the cash raised from trimming at higher prices, but concerned the correction may last a bit longer in a few of these silver stocks.

        • On May 27, 2020 at 8:58 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Same question on USAS…. What are your thoughts on it recovering now that it has dipped below the KAMA. I realize it is hard to say when the trading session is still active, but many of the Silver charts are looking like this where their price dipped below that moving average support.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:00 am,
            Excelsior says:

            USAS also has an initial gap down a bit lower near 2.16 that may be a good spot to add.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:41 am,
            Matthew says:

            Sorry, I got sidetracked. USAS is showing relative weakness (look at MACD and price below 20 day MA) but looks like a good deal right here…

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks. Yeah, I trimmed a bit when it broke out above the B.B., but now that it is down below the 20 day MA it is more of a concern that if it had bounced hard off it.

            I may watch and wait to see if that lower Gap gets filled. Much appreciated.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:45 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:48 am,
            Matthew says:

            From a weekly perspective, silver looks like it wants to shoot higher before taking a break. Notice that SLV’s low this week/today was one cent above last week’s low. The SLV gap is probably not a concern to smart money since it only exists because of Memorial Day.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:53 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good point about the gap in SLV being caused by the markets close on Memorial Day.

            However, it does look like a Hanging Man candle so far today, so a mild pullback for a few days wouldn’t be out of the question either. That gap would get filled if that played out.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 9:57 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, it was encouraging that Silver didn’t have the gap that SLV had.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 10:27 am,
            Matthew says:

            The Hanging Man is just a Hammer that happens at a high and I don’t see that in SLV today.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 10:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Exactly, that hanging man candle is happening in the SLV on that weekly chart you posted.


          • On May 27, 2020 at 10:41 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Obviously, since we are still mid-week we’ll have to see how it closes on Friday, but it was just a concern at first glance.


          • On May 27, 2020 at 11:11 am,
            Matthew says:

            I see. Well I have to say that I am not real worried about that working out but of course it could.
            I don’t see the top we’ve just had as anything other than a short term top and a weekly reversal looks very unlikely to me.
            A 3% rise from here (“here” being 16.10) by Friday’s close would essentially eliminate the pattern as would a small decline of say .5%
            The smaller the body of the candle relative to the shadows the better the pattern so the worst thing this week would be a close that matches the open.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 11:28 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, good points on it being better if it is not a smaller bodied candle as it would match the hanging man description more appropriately, and would actually be better to close down a bit further for a longer weekly candle and get it out of it’s system, so that next week’s candle could be a green bullish one.

            There is always a chance it could still surprise folks and end this week green as there are 2 more trading days. We’ll see what Friday brings and I’d prefer to see things keep running, but if there was going to be a weekly bearish reversal, then I’d want to wait to add more to stocks until the next few weeks.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 11:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here are Wednesday afternoon I’ve notice a reversal in many of the stocks and they’ve clawed back their losses, and many have now flipped to bullish on the day, so a lot of buying is coming into the markets which is quite encouraging.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 11:50 am,
            Matthew says:

            Sorry, I was very unclear. I should have said the smaller the body of the candle the more legitimate the pattern is so we do NOT want a small body relative to the shadows. The rest is correct. A 3% move up or a .5% (or more) move down would give us a big enough body to make the hanging man very questionable.

            To your last point, I think there’s a pretty good chance everything silver and even gold goes very green by Friday. We’ve had quite a turnaround today so far.

          • On May 27, 2020 at 11:54 am,
            Matthew says:

            Btw and fwiw, I know you were clear on my comment.

  20. On May 27, 2020 at 9:13 am,
    David says:

    I am going to pay my bills and maybe mow the lawn.

    • On May 27, 2020 at 9:42 am,
      Excelsior says:

      How dare you be a productive member of society David. 😉

      (and how dare you bring up mowing the lawn….)

      I just cut mine a few days back and it is already getting near time again… I may level the yard and just put in a bunch of rocks – ha!

  21. On May 27, 2020 at 11:56 am,
    David says:

    As Eric Sprott has said many times: “nice rocks”.