David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Fri 29 May, 2020

Weighing the Upside vs Downside Risk For Precious Metals

Dave Erfle joins me today to share some more details on his recent article over at Kitco where he outlines the risk/reward balance for gold and silver. He also shares some of the qualities in the stocks that he is investing in as well as a stocks he is looking forward to some news.

Click here to visit Dave’s site for more information on his newsletter.

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Comments:
  1. On May 29, 2020 at 11:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Silvercorp Metals declares $0.0125 dividend
    May 28, 2020

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3578198-silvercorp-metals-declares-0_0125-dividend

  2. On May 29, 2020 at 11:35 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Is This A Good Time To Invest In Silver?

    Brien Lundin, Chris Marcus, Charlotte Mcleod Video Conference

    Arcadia Economics •Premiered 13 hours ago

    https://youtu.be/rE8LBPn2KQg

    • On May 29, 2020 at 11:37 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Silver futures prices up to $18.40s today… and the silver miners are surging.

      https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

      • On May 29, 2020 at 11:52 am,
        Excelsior says:

        There are an abundance of calls from pundits in forums and interviews and written pieces advising folks to pull profits in the miners, which seems to be happening a bit in many miners as they spiked up earlier and giving back some gains during the afternoon session, but this may allow the markets to keep creeping higher climbing the wall of worry.

        Having said that, there is nothing wrong with taking a bit off the top. I trimmed back just a few positions today, but am just in hold mode with most positions.

        I also initiated a few new positions this week with some of my cash, to get something in place in case the miners surged and didn’t keep pulling back. I’m happy to add to my positions if we see a corrective move in the next week or two, as I’ve got more dry powder to fire off.

        Good luck to everyone in their investing!

        • On May 29, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
          Marty says:

          Eric Sprott was nearly euphoric with Craig on his Friday wrap.

          • On May 29, 2020 at 1:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Rightly so… he probably made a fortune this week.

        • On May 29, 2020 at 12:48 pm,
          Marty says:

          I was surprised to hear in another interview that David limited all of his positions to 4% or less. I’m not ashamed to say I’m @ 19% in SILV

          • On May 29, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I have the same basic approach with my largest positions in the 3-5% and my smallest positions around 0.5%. Occasionally a larger position will jump up to 6-10% like what happened to me with Silvercorp, Alexco, Santacruz, Argonaut, and Impact earlier in the year, and I had to trim them back a bit into the strength to reduce down their position sizing in the portfolio.

            I’ve got a lot of positions though, and have considered starting to consolidate them down where positions could be 5-8% of the portfolio of the future.

          • On May 29, 2020 at 5:53 pm,
            David says:

            I have Silvercrest at 8.5, Irving @ 9 even, Ely moving past to 9.7 and Great Bear after early sales up to20%. Everything else is 5 or less. I have sold 60% of Silvercrest, 20% of Irving, 15% of Ely and 20% of Great Bear but not recently on any of those. There are so many opinions on what will happen next that I am waiting to see what happens after Monday as TPTB like to take Mondays down. But its different this time…maybe.

      • On May 29, 2020 at 11:57 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I will be glad when silver pops through $21-22…..then watch the cup fill to the brim
        will people be able to handle it…..,……..cup and handle it….. 🙂

        • On May 29, 2020 at 12:00 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Once the 2016 silver surge high at $21.23 is eclipsed, the cupeth will runneth over.

          • On May 29, 2020 at 12:03 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂

        • On May 29, 2020 at 12:00 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Here is a great visual……….on silver…….relating to other assets etc….
          https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/

          • On May 29, 2020 at 1:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            +1 OOTB

            I posted that same visual capitalist piece on yesterday’s blogs, but it is well worth people checking out Silvers market compared to Gold’s or the General stock markets, or the National Debt.

            It won’t take much money flowing into the Silver market to really move the needle in a substantial way.

          • On May 29, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Sorry,….did not see it.. but,,…..great minds think alike…. 🙂

          • On May 29, 2020 at 1:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. It’s quite a startling juxtaposition of markets.

    • On May 29, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
      Marty says:

      I think Chris Marcus had a hard time answering questions, Not used to be on the other end of the Mike.

  3. On May 29, 2020 at 1:24 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Gold/Silver Ratio Begins To Trend Lower

    May 29, 2020 – Andrew Hecht

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350796-gold-silver-ratio-begins-to-trend-lower

  4. On May 29, 2020 at 3:23 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Any thoughts on Group Ten Metals drill results? It got me buying some.

    • On May 29, 2020 at 3:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      They were awesome just like the last few sets of drill results, and that is why (PGE) Group Ten Metals was up 12%+ on the day.

      ______________________________

      (PGE)(PGEZF)Group Ten Reports High-Grade Gold, Palladium, and Platinum Results from the Pine and HGR Targets at the Stillwater West Project in Montana, USA
      29 May 2020

      > Drilling at the Pine target returned values including 16.94 g/t 3E (16.19 g/t Au, 0.24 g/t Pt, 0.50 g/t Pd) over 7.98 meters and 31.02 g/t 3E (28.7 g/t Au, 1.06 g/t Pt, 1.27 g/t Pd) over 2.6 meters hosted within the chromite-rich ultramafic stratigraphy.

      > High-grade gold, palladium, and platinum values ranging to 16.18 g/t 3E (13.80 g/t Au, 1.10 g/t Pd, and 1.28 g/t Pt) were returned in rock samples taken by Group Ten in 2019 at the Pine target, with a total of 13 samples returning from 2 to 30 g/t platinum equivalent grade mineralization to date by the Company.

      > At the HGR target, nine kilometers east of the Pine target, high-grade gold, palladium, and platinum values ranging to 19.06 g/t 3E (14.30 g/t Au, 3.10 g/t Pd, and 1.66 g/t Pt) were returned in assays conducted by the US Geological Survey (“USGS”) on select samples of historic drill core from the HGR target area at Iron Mountain that had not previously been assayed for precious metals.

      https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/group-ten-reports-high-grade-gold-palladium-and-platinum

  5. On May 29, 2020 at 6:28 pm,
    Buzz says:

    GARWF just recently reported a high grade discovery in Paraguay. It’s stock yawned a bit…

  6. On May 29, 2020 at 7:18 pm,
    monty bissett says:

    Ex or anyone any idea what happened with WM 15 minutes before closing when all hell broke loose

    • On May 29, 2020 at 7:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi monty bissett. I don’t really know, but saw some chatter that it had been added to an index and number of funds were buying it today near the close, but I’m not sure I buy that either. There was about 10 time the normal volume, and WM was up about 26% on the day, so it seems like some insiders know something big is about to go down next week.

      It will be interesting to see why there was a sudden frenzy of buying at the end of the week and end of the month in such a massive buy.

  7. On May 29, 2020 at 10:39 pm,
    Matthew says:

    IPT broke out of a big 3 year bullish basing pattern last week and gave good confirming follow-through this week while posting its best weekly close in 3 years:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p92768073305&a=762108241

    • On May 29, 2020 at 11:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      IPT was on quite a tear this week. Really impressive action there.

    • On May 30, 2020 at 10:20 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      impressive Matt!
      silver looks very strong…Many folks including yourself and on here kept saying it was the place to be. Bob, and gary as well. I hope many listened. My only regret was selling out early from aurcana. Still a profit is a profit. Glad i bought a decent amount of impact..

      • On May 30, 2020 at 9:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I added more to Aurcana my friend, and believe there is still PLENTY of upside left in AUN so you can always jump back in for the ride higher.

  8. On May 29, 2020 at 10:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The important GDX speed line breakout has held for 4 straight weeks:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45267459372&a=542616395

  9. On May 29, 2020 at 10:44 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The XAU’s move above the important 600 week MA has held for the last 6 weeks:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=p54654279859&a=699164164