John Rubino over at Dollar Collapse – Mon 13 Jul, 2020

Silver is outperforming gold but what is the biggest risk to this precious metals bull market?

John Rubino joins me today for comments on the overall environment that is driving precious metals. Recent news out of China shows a further explosion in debt creation which no doubt is helping to support the financial markets. We also share our thoughts on the near term risks for a pullback.

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  1. On July 13, 2020 at 12:03 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver prices are knocking on heaven’s door.

    Silver got up to last year’s high of $19.75 three times so far today, and the first two times barely got above resistance to $19.76 and $19.77, and then retreated back below it, which is normal on the first 2 attempts at a prior peak.

    It would be technically strong for Silver to close today above last year’s high, indicating that a new impulse leg is underway. Silver is back up above $19.75 now for the 3rd time $19.77… #ThreeTimesACharm

    • On July 13, 2020 at 12:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      As mentioned a half dozen times over the last month, after 2019’s peak of $19.75 is finally broken on a closing basis (maybe even today, and preferably on a weekly close), then the primary target is still the 2016 surge high of $21.23. Once that is eclipsed then the real fireworks can start, but whether or not there is enough energy in Silver to see it get there on this run, or if it needs to correct first, consolidate this move, and then charge higher remains to be seen.

      Good luck to so all the Silver bugs out there!

      • On July 13, 2020 at 12:46 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Well with 15 minute to close it doesn’t look like Silver is going to pull off taking out last year’s high of $19.75. Currently back down to $19.50.

        Silver gave resistance 3 good wacks at the pinata today, but no candy. 🙁

        • On July 13, 2020 at 12:59 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          As as result, most of the Silver stocks that were up handsomely earlier today, have pulled back hard over in the afternoon trading, and most went from positive to negative on the day.

          There were a few standout exceptions of course like (SSV) Southern Silver still up 27% on the day, (BCK) Blind Creek up 25%, (DEF) Defiance Silver up 16% on the day, (ABRA) AbraPlata up 14.3% on the day, (SCZ) Santacruz Silver up 12.8% on the day, (MYA) Maya Gold & Silver up 13.2% on the day, etc…

          • On July 13, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Some of those stand out Silver stocks even headed lover after settling on the close, so there was a lot of selling pressure all the way up to the very last minute in the silvers.

            Tomorrow is a new day…

          • On July 13, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            lover = lower haha!

          • On July 13, 2020 at 1:40 pm,
            David says:

            Today “lover” would have been better.

          • On July 13, 2020 at 1:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good one David! 😍

      • On July 13, 2020 at 5:31 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        I agree Ex, we need to see that 2016 high of $21.23 taken out before getting too excited. A break and hold above this price would negate the long term sideways to down pattern witnesssd since 2013. With the miners backing off, a correction in PMs could be imminent. Been a good period of catch-up for silver nonetheless over the last several days.

        • On July 13, 2020 at 5:43 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Barring something close to a crash, a pullback tomorrow is a buy, in my book, and not reason to turn intermediate term bearish.
          A lot of money will be made before 21.23 is reached and the odds are very good that that level will be reached during this move.

          • On July 13, 2020 at 7:16 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Ohh I agree Matthew. I didnt intend to sound bearish. Any correction/pullback we see in PMs is a good opportunity for further buys. I personally would like to see abit of a pullback here as it helps sustain moves looking forward. Gold in particular I think has perhaps got slightly ahead of itself and to consolidate around the 1770-1800 would be healthy.

            And yes large returns will be made in silver if and when $21.23 is hit. Particularly for those who went in around the March low of $11.90. Whether in physical or miners, that is a large increase in a short amount of time. I recently read that this climb in silver is the 4th largest climb in a 4 month period in recorded history. All the more reason for abit of a pause in prices I wouldve thought? We shall see…

          • On July 13, 2020 at 7:27 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Again Matt I can’t disagree here! It seems very few understand what’s happening and this is not a knock on anyone. Once again I have not sold anything short or long term. Every correction as Matt has said is a buying opportunity until it is not. The trend continues to be up and it’s as clear as water. But the tome around me is very nervous, scared, concerned, wall of worry doing its thing.

            Even if this current correction ends up being A bit longer at worse it would be a half cycle low as Gary mentioned but I highly doubt. Non the less $1820-$1840 will be hit followed by $1840-$1880 in this intermediate cycle. We have a date with mid August as I see it. This cycle will run longer than usual. 7-9 months duration from low to bottom.

            I think silver will hit those targets in this cycle as well. It’s on fire


          • On July 13, 2020 at 7:35 pm,
            Glenfidish says:


            Here I run a tight ship of 8 stocks all together! Your running like a million all the while posting these insane charts gdx vs this and that or gld vs this and that.. god dam my brain needs hours to process all your material yet alone understand it. Just kidding. The point I get is that we seem to be doing well and that gold and silver are on the path towards up. That this bull has legs for many more years.


          • On July 13, 2020 at 9:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Glen, despite the weakness that developed today, GLD:SLV still lost the 200 day MA and a fork support and remained completely below the lower Bollinger Band. All good…

          • On July 13, 2020 at 9:09 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Likewise, SLV:GLD leapt above speed line and Fibonacci fan resistance and stayed there…

          • On July 14, 2020 at 9:28 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            Hi General,

            Thank you for your kind comment. As you stated most in here are very good at their craft and kind enough to share with us all. I have plenty of respect for everyone in here and have learned a great deal myself. The saying is true you never stop learning. So thank you for your kind words and I wish you the best in your investments.

            Please drop in from time to time and feel free to speak your own knowledge. We welcome all.

        • On July 13, 2020 at 10:08 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Good thoughts Ozibatla, and yes the move up from $11.90 to $19.50 thus far in such as short time frame has been an epic run, but these are unusual times with pandemics, rioting, government stimulus, central bank printing to infinity and beyond, and general uncertainty in the marketplace. The general markets have been strangely resilient, and the Precious Metals have been getting a bid in tandem. It’s really an odd economic and geo-political stew.

          Silver has been overdue to start gaining on Gold some, and the moves recently are allowing that to happen. Yes, as Silver ratchets higher it is now very close to taking out last year’s high of $19.75, and moving towards the 2016 high of $21.23. The miners will respond very favorably on that journey higher, and earlier today many were surging before the last 2 hours where both Silver and the Silver miners pulled back down.

          One that thing that Silver taking out the $21.23 level will do is generate more awareness and buzz with generalist investors where the headlines can read “highest level in over 4 years…. yada yada…,” like we’ve seen with Gold ever since it took out $1377.70 and then the targets above it fell in the $1400’s, $1500s, $1600s, $1700s, and now it is up in the $1800s. Something very similar can play out in Silver once the 2016 high is in the rear-view mirror, and then the mid $20s will come into focus fast.

          I’m not concerned about a steep or protracted crash or anything like that, but a pause that refreshes and a corrective move in Gold and eventually Silver will be healthy and part of the journey higher. As you mentioned, Gold is further ahead, and the Gold stocks have done fantastic but will likely cool off and consolidate in the near future. I welcome that and will be ready to pounce when the time is right.

          I went in as heavy as I could in March/April in the Gold & Silver miners, and was very actively trading them but have mostly been in hold mode since May, with occasional rebalancing here and there. However I’ve gradually started trimming back small 20-30% positions over the last few weeks in the stocks that just ripped beyond what I had anticipated just a few months back, but have the lion’s share still in place.

          I bought a number of gold and silver producers positions on margin and have been throttling some of that back a bit, and also trimmed positions in advanced developers that weren’t on margin and that have finally started to re-rate higher based on the higher metals prices so that I could raise some cash. I’ve also been storing some profits in royalty companies for generally safe keeping. With the Explorers, there have already been some interesting exploration hits this season (like what happened in Vizsla last week), but I’m waiting on more than a dozen more programs to see what they unearth over the next month or so.

          I’m working on staying disciplined and continuing to let the winners run, but only to a point. I’m seeing many overbought signals and valuations that are starting to get way ahead of themselves, and so I’m planning to do more trimming, particularly in the Gold stocks over the next few weeks as things develop. With the Silver miners, I feel they have further to run, and Silver has further to run and will drag the miners higher with it, so I’m mostly just holding those at present. If they run quite a bit higher from here though, then I’ll start trimming those back as well.

          Overall times have been good in the Precious Metals sector since March and medium to longer term, I expect them to get much better, but nothing moves up in a straight line, and corrections will come and should be bought. Cheers!

          • On July 14, 2020 at 12:29 am,
            Ozibatla says:

            Nothing moves up in a straight line, yes indeed! So yes we should get something of a pause here soon. But this will be fruitful in the mid to long term. However, with gold and silver looking so robust in recent times, they could easily overshoot another couple of percent before retracing.

            Your mentioning of gold taking out the previous heavy resistant mark of $1377 is good for perspective as this only happened just over a year ago thus painting a clear picture of how well gold has performed in this time. Even allowing for the covid-19 sell-off back in March, the bull is alive and well. Silver though has more work to do. Hopefully in the next 12 months it will continue to play catchup to gold.

          • On July 14, 2020 at 4:07 am,
            general says:

            Have been reading many of your comments here on Kereport for a while now ,Ex and of all the others like Matthew, Matt,Glenfidish, OOTB, much appreciate all the insights and comments made here, always look forward to see what you all have to say. All done in mutual benefit and respect, great to see. Thanks

          • On July 14, 2020 at 9:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for saying so general, and much appreciated. Yes, we have a good group of contributors here at the KE Report sharing interesting and informative insights.

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  3. On July 13, 2020 at 1:16 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The volume-weighted average price of SILJ today was about 5% above the closing closing price and for IPT it was about 9% above the close. So there wasn’t much interest in selling weakness despite the implications of such a reversal.

    I’m sure SILJ will finally fill last Wednesday’s gap tomorrow morning and the action thereafter will tell us a lot about the immediate future.

  4. On July 13, 2020 at 1:21 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Silver did manage to make and close at a new multi-year high:

    • On July 13, 2020 at 1:44 pm,
      Bill says:

      and as you called it perfectly….Jesus can you take care of my portfolio?!

  5. On July 13, 2020 at 1:25 pm,
    Bill says:

    Silver looking good now Matt.
    But stocks seem to be in the sell off on the PMs… maybe correction time?

    • On July 13, 2020 at 3:19 pm,
      Matthew says:

      SLV has its own bearish reversal in play that could send it to 17.10 or a bit lower but I have some doubts about even that modest pullback happening. So I think SILJ will fill the gap and probably overshoot it by 10-20 cents before reversing.
      I do not want SILJ to close below 11.80 tomorrow:

    • On July 13, 2020 at 7:40 pm,
      Glenfidish says:


      What’s your boys saying regarding reversal hammer and bear etf x2? Please let us know in real terms when you go bear. If that’s ok with you. Official day you go bear.. etf

      You did mention there was a flashing signal coming soon dat the boys were getting ready.. I think everyone is loaded and ready for $1880 that’s why it won’t come from there just food for thought.

      • On July 13, 2020 at 9:15 pm,
        buzz says:

        Yeah, keep your eyes on more chicken than a man ever seen—

  6. On July 13, 2020 at 3:21 pm,
    Matthew says:

    In other news, it looks like COPX will probably beat GDX for a couple of weeks or more…

    • On July 14, 2020 at 10:15 am,
      Bill says:

      July 13th
      GTI (Gold Trend Indicator) : Bullish
      DJIA Weekly: bearish, 27105 Moderately aggressive investors, trading or hedging on an intermediate basis, who follow the Weekly Indicator may find it prudent to be hedged or net short if the DJIA is trading below this pivot level. Reminder – we do not have a change to “bullish” or “bearish” unless the DJIA closes the calendar week above/below this pivot level.
      DJIA Monthly: bearish, 29570 Conservative investors, trading or hedging on a longer-term basis, who follow the Monthly Indicator may find it prudent to be hedged or net short when the DJIA is trading below this pivot level. Reminder – we do not have a change to “bullish” or “bearish” unless the DJIA closes the calendar month above/below this pivot level.
      NOTE : Speculators and frequent traders will prefer to use the Daily or Weekly Indicator as trading or hedging pivot points, while longer-term investors may prefer to consider only the Monthly Indicator.

      DJIA was up 561 points today, then plunged to close up only 10 points on the day, while the NASDAQ lost over 2%
      That wild action is no surprise to us, as we remain convinced that the current rally in stocks is just a bounce from the March low and, much more important, our key Indicators still remain longer-term bearish.
      More specifically, bullish sentiment is extreme to historic degrees by many measures, stocks are extremely overbought, and we should expect an equally extreme reaction to the down side.

      For now we’ll stick with the short positions we have. If you don’t have some hedges or short positions, consider TZA.
      We’re moving the stop on AGQ up to $30.75 on an intraday basis (no longer on a closing basis), which is just below Friday’s close.
      A major non-confirmation between gold and silver persists while sentiment is wildly bullish and both metals are at or near extremes of technical patterns that usually resolve downward.