David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 4 Aug, 2020

Gold and Silver – Looking at ETF demand and the CoT reports to understand the investors entering the sector

Dave Erfle joins me today to share some market internals for the precious metals he has been sharing with his subscribers. Looking at the Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports as well as the contract rollovers on the futures markets we are seeing a very different type of investor enter the sector. We also drive down into stocks and what these traders will by buying.

Click here to visit Dave’s site for more information on his newsletter.

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Comments:
  1. On August 4, 2020 at 12:18 pm,
    cfs says:

    Ackerman

  2. On August 4, 2020 at 12:19 pm,
    cfs says:
    • On August 4, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
      Rene says:

      Thanks cfs for mentioning the video, just subscribed.

    • On August 4, 2020 at 12:38 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice Silver targets from Rick A.

      • On August 4, 2020 at 1:06 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Target is $49…….

        • On August 4, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
          Matthew says:

          That goes well with the P&F price objective of $54

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The P&F price objective…….is for you to explain …….you the man on that one… 🙂
            Do you have a chart on that one?
            I am just using the old cup and handle …..on the price….target….just like the gold …
            (I know both are different, but, you know what I mean, I hope 🙂

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:36 pm,
            b says:

            A correction at about $50 seems logical, people that bought years ago in that area will probably be thrilled to break even and sell.

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Exactly b……the over resistance…..of those who got stuck at the top….or close to the top.

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:48 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            over head resistance…..sorry

    • On August 5, 2020 at 6:01 pm,
      Jay Linn says:

      Looks like Rick’s Hidden Pivot for silver was triggered today.

  3. On August 4, 2020 at 12:24 pm,
    Rene says:

    Thanks Corey and David appreciated

  4. On August 4, 2020 at 12:30 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    There has been so much newsflow in the Gold and Silver miners today with the metals ripping higher that I’ve felt like this all day long trying to take it all in.

    https://i.imgur.com/qbAYuoS.gif

    • On August 4, 2020 at 12:35 pm,
      Rene says:

      Information overload= Brain freeze , Exc your doing pretty good though with all the latest, cheers

      • On August 4, 2020 at 12:36 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes, it has been an information overload day. Once the markets close and I finish digesting everything, I’m actually looking forward to cutting the grass and getting away from the glowing screen. 🙂

        • On August 4, 2020 at 12:49 pm,
          Rene says:

          Good plan Exc, here i have allready enjoyed full day in the garden, trimming back the babana trees and plucking guavas… this is my night duty(haha)

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            “trimming back the babana trees and plucking guavas…”

            That is how it felt in the markets today… a little trimming back and plucking a few new positions… (lol)

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:50 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As for the trimming of the trees, I shaved some off of Gold Resource, Impact, Brixton, and Alexco today as they surged higher, and as for the plucking I added to Sailfish Royalties as it pulled back, as well as starting positions in Eastmain, and reinitiating one in Superior Gold. I had about a dozen other limit orders for buying and selling that didn’t get filled.

      • On August 4, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
        cfs says:
    • On August 4, 2020 at 12:45 pm,
      Rene says:

      Brixton had a nice pop just wondering if this was the news which caused it…..

      Brixton Metals Samples 68.8 g/t Gold at its Thorn Project in the Golden Triangle and Announces an Upsized and Fully Subscribed $5,500,000 Private Placement

      • On August 4, 2020 at 12:58 pm,
        Rene says:

        Big volume on Aftermath silver today

        • On August 4, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes about 4 times the volume in Aftermath today, but it closed slightly down, which is odd on such a strong move higher in Silver today. Lot’s of distribution in it from sellers to buyers today.

          • On August 4, 2020 at 1:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Correction, I hadn’t refreshed my screen – Aftermath was up on the day, like most of the Silver Explorers and Silver Developers. Very nice action today in the markets.

            >> Symbol – Silver Explorers & Developers – Daily Change %

            JAX.V Jaxon Mining Inc. +46.67%
            ABRA.V AbraPlata Resource Corp. +27.66%
            BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +26.92%
            BNKR.CN Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +24.14%
            AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +21.21%
            RSLV.V Reyna Silver Corp. +20.20%
            VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. +20.00%
            SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +19.64%
            SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +19.15%
            OCG.V Outcrop Gold Corp. +18.64%
            SSE.V Silver Spruce Resources Inc. +18.18%
            SXL.V Slam Exploration Ltd. +16.67%
            SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +15.19%
            MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +15.00%
            VGLD.V Vangold Mining Corp. +14.71%
            GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +13.64%
            AUU.V Aura Resources Inc. +12.50%
            AHNR Athena Silver Corporation +12.50%
            SLVR.V Silver Tiger Metals Inc. +12.50%
            ELO.V Eloro Resources Ltd. +11.00%
            DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +10.11%
            AGH-H.V Canadian Silver Hunter Inc. +10.00%
            CCM.TO Canarc Resource Corp. +9.52%
            SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +9.09%
            AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +8.70%
            ANZ.V Alianza Minerals Ltd. +8.70%
            RRI.V Riverside Resources Inc. +8.57%
            DSV.V Discovery Metals Corp. +8.57%
            VZLA.V Vizsla Resources Corp. +8.30%
            SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +8.11%
            AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +7.31%
            TUF.V Honey Badger Exploration Inc. +7.14%
            REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. +6.67%
            CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +6.52%
            KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc +6.08%
            ASL.V Argentum Silver Corp. +5.88%
            BCK.V Blind Creek Resources Ltd. +5.88%
            ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. +5.43%
            CCW.V Canada Silver Cobalt Works Inc. +5.08%
            SIL.TO SilverCrest Metals Inc. +4.87%
            CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. +4.76%
            GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +4.65%
            AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +4.41%
            DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +4.00%
            AUMN Golden Minerals Company +3.75%
            SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +3.70%
            BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. +3.70%
            MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +3.54%
            BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +3.40%
            BRC.V Blackrock Gold Corp. +2.61%
            NBR.V Nubian Resources Ltd. +1.11%
            NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +0.17%

      • On August 4, 2020 at 1:16 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I’m sure that high grade gold hit at Thorn helped with BBB awareness, but I believe today’s move was more a technical breakout on the rising Gold and Silver prices. It was overdue.

        • On August 4, 2020 at 1:54 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I trimmed my first 1/3 of Brixton today, and left 2/3 on for the trek higher.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 2:11 am,
            Rene says:

            +1

        • On August 4, 2020 at 2:01 pm,
          Wolfster says:

          Believe everyone on here said it was about to pop any day so I’ll go with technical breakout …….between Brixton and Kootenay I was certainly distracted at work…..too bad in the last 4 minutes some piddly trades took it from .50 down to .48. 😠

          • On August 4, 2020 at 2:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yep.

    • On August 4, 2020 at 3:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Red-Hot Gold Stocks Will Cool Off in August

      Jordan Roy-Byrne – Palisade Radio – August 4, 2020 #AudioInterview

      “A correction is coming. GDX & GDXJ hit major resistance levels & breadth indicators are extremely overbought. We highlight support levels in Gold & Silver.”

      https://youtu.be/PBwMq9r8MLY

  5. On August 4, 2020 at 1:01 pm,
    russell hamilton says:

    My recent purchase of KL kirkland gold and CDE have done great today . Silver on fire HL and MAG zoom up . Trump and Tillis are loosing in N Carolina , Susan Collins is going to retire soon ha ha , and Astronut Kelly is winning in AZ Jamie Harrison is possibly going to win in S C EXpect volitility WOW best of health and wealth to you all rsh

  6. On August 4, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
    bonzo says:

    At last, after a very trying wait, my AUG and OR are finally back in the black. Even HL is looking good. wonder where NSRPF will open tomorrow?

  7. On August 4, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
    Charles says:

    Novo Undertakes Transformative Acquisition to Fast-Track Planned Pilbara Conglomerate Gold Production

    Not for Distribution to United States Newswire Services or for dissemination in the United States

    VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 04, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Novo Resources Corp. (“Novo” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: NVO; OTCQX: NSRPF) is pleased to announce that it has today signed an arm’s length agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of privately held Millennium Minerals Limited (“Millennium”) from IMC Resources Gold Holdings Pte Ltd, Heritas Capital Management (Australia) Pty Ltd, and IMC Resources Ltd (collectively, “IMC”) (the “Acquisition”). Millennium’s assets are located approximately 10 km south of Novo’s 100% controlled Beatons Creek conglomerate gold project (the “Beatons Creek Project”) in the Nullagine region, Shire of East Pilbara, Western Australia (see Figure 1 below) and include the requisite processing infrastructure to accelerate Novo’s planned transition to a producing gold company1.

    All amounts are in United States dollars unless otherwise indicated.

    Highlights:

    Near-term Gold Production: Fast-tracks Novo’s transition to becoming Australia’s next junior gold producer via production at its Beatons Creek Project. This will enable Novo to progress its broader organic exploration on its numerous other gold projects across the Company’s approximately 13,750 km2 Pilbara tenure (see Figure 2 below).
    Infrastructure in Place to Leverage Beatons Creek Project: The Acquisition provides Novo with key processing infrastructure, including a 1.5 Mtpa processing plant, tailings storage facility, contract power station, administration offices, assay laboratory, and a 230 room camp (the “Millennium Assets”) (see Figure 3 below).
    Significantly Reduced Timeline to Production: The Acquisition will substantially reduce the timeline that would otherwise be required to bring the Beatons Creek Project into production.
    Solidifies Novo’s Tier 1 Jurisdiction Exposure: Western Australia is the top-ranked globally recognized mining jurisdiction, according to the Fraser Institute2. Novo’s key focus is in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia, hosting extensive natural resources, operations and infrastructure.
    Limited Dilution, Strong Balance Sheet: The Acquisition will result in modest equity dilution of approximately 15%, an exceptional outcome for an exploration company planning on transitioning to producer status.
    ____________________

    1 A decision by Novo to place the Beatons Creek Project into production following the completion of the Acquisition might be made without being based on a technical report, preliminary economic assessment, pre-feasibility study or feasibility study of mineral reserves demonstrating economic and technical viability, and, as a result, there may be an increased uncertainty of achieving any particular level of recovery of minerals or the cost of such recovery, including increased risks associated with developing a commercially mineable deposit. Historically, such projects have a much higher risk of economic and technical failure. It is further cautioned that the mineral resource is preliminary in nature and includes inferred resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability.

    2 Source – https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2019.pdf

    “This transformative acquisition places Novo on the fast track to production,” commented Quinton Hennigh, Chairman, President, and director of Novo. “Novo entered the Pilbara region ten years ago on a largely conceptual basis and this transaction enables us to significantly accelerate our transition into a producing gold company. The Millennium Assets provide us with ideally suited infrastructure that should enable us to begin producing gold from our Beatons Creek Project several years earlier than our initial plan.”

    Hennigh continued, “Reaching the point at which we are today, the precipice of bringing conglomerate gold deposits into production, is the result of many years of hard work and creative innovation. Our path has included many milestones such as synthesizing a new geologic model for Pilbara conglomerate gold deposits, developing rigorous protocols for quantifying nuggety gold mineralization, conducting extensive bulk sampling, undertaking large scale trial excavation and processing, modeling resources around these unique deposits, negotiating multiple native title agreements, and seeking and receiving mining approvals, just to name a few. I am very grateful to the team at Novo for their dedication to achieving this important objective.”

    “Consolidation of the Nullagine gold field brings our aspiration of production into clear focus,” commented Rob Humphryson, CEO and director of Novo. “Importantly, the Millennium Assets also provide Novo with a technical hub to expedite assessment of field-generated mechanically sorted gold concentrates from the Company’s gold projects across the Pilbara.”

    Humphryson continued, “Novo has assembled an experienced operational team to advance the Company’s projects to production. I am delighted that the opportunity is now in hand to fast-track our planned transition to producer status given the current rising gold price environment.”

  8. On August 4, 2020 at 1:47 pm,
    irishtony says:
    • On August 4, 2020 at 1:50 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Already read it……just wondering what the slim ball bankers are thinking behind the scenes……lol

  9. On August 4, 2020 at 1:49 pm,
    bonzo says:

    My blue chip AEM, which I bought eons ago when Paul Pena was CEO, became a 10 bagger today. I paid $8 a share and today it closed@81. Hooray for AEM, and I still ain’t selling.

    • On August 4, 2020 at 1:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      +10

      Congrats bonzo on the 10 bagger in Agnico Eagle! Well done sir.

      • On August 4, 2020 at 1:57 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I would say………that was a PRO MOVE…..

    • On August 4, 2020 at 1:54 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      That is one of those …..Jessie Livermore moves……… 🙂
      Sit Tight……lol

      • On August 4, 2020 at 4:37 pm,
        bonzo says:

        I guess I should’ve sold AEM in 2011 and bought it back in 2015, but I am not perfect.

        • On August 4, 2020 at 4:47 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Who would have known……this board was negative during that period of time….
          I think you did perfecto ……. jmo

    • On August 4, 2020 at 3:26 pm,
      Canuckski says:

      That is AEMazing Bonzo!
      As per Jesse Livermore’s advice… “The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”
      Good job on holding onto it!!!

  10. On August 4, 2020 at 2:03 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Dang…….gold still on the move……$2022

  11. On August 4, 2020 at 2:07 pm,
    cfs says:

    Great Bear Drills 81.22 g/t Gold Over 10.50 m at Bedrock Surface at LP Fault
    August 4, 2020
    August 4, 2020 – Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada – Great Bear Resources Ltd. (the “Company” or “Great Bear”, TSX-V: GBR; OTCQX: GTBAF) today reported results from its ongoing fully funded $21 million exploration program at its 100% owned flagship Dixie Project in the Red Lake district of Ontario.

  12. On August 4, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    When the Santacruz halt is over we will get a Santaclaus rally, ( You heard that here first) Ho, Ho, Ho! Their phone lines are jammed, to many investors trying to get news. DT

    • On August 4, 2020 at 3:06 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ho ho ho!

      I’m actually disappointed that Santacruz didn’t have their stock unhalted today to participate in the rising Silver prices. It’s costing us gains, and I’m worried by the time that they get it unhalted that they are going to time out with a pullback in the metals. It sure doesn’t feel like much of a Santaclaus rally with them not trading while everyone else is running higher. I remain very constructive on SCZ for the medium & longer term, but would like them to get this financing news announced in the short-term and get on with it. Happy Holidays!!

      • On August 4, 2020 at 3:18 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        Excuse me Ex. Don’t want to get into any arguments but I believe site cynic is my domain!!!

        • On August 4, 2020 at 3:39 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Too right mate. I don’t want to sound to cynical, as I’m bullish on Santacruz for the long game.

          I was just legitimately excited that SCZ finally announced they were buying their 3rd and most profitable mine = Zimapan, but they announced it under the halt have left it halted for the last 4-5 trading sessions as the metals have trucked higher. If they had been unhalted, even if there was dilution as part of the financing, it would still be worth the candle in this case. Even if it had initially pulled back, the rising metals would have pulled it right back higher again, but if they wait too long and unhalt into a falling metals prices, then the good news will get overlooked.

          OK cynicism done. Good luck to the Santacruz Silver team with their new mine.

  13. On August 4, 2020 at 3:27 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Anybody know WHY……..palladium is going up with gold…after hours……?

    • On August 4, 2020 at 3:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      OOTB – Bob M is bullish on Platinum, and discusses both metals earlier on this interview with Proven and Probable from 2 days ago.

      He mentions at the 40:15 mark that he feels Palladium is more overvalued than Platinum, and then they get into the crazy bid/ask spread on Rhodium. Lots of interesting things brewing with the PGMs.

      https://youtu.be/4Osm7Xw778w?t=2414

      • On August 4, 2020 at 4:50 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Thanks Ex…….I listened to that tape the other night….
        I know Bob has mentioned before , that he thought platinum was cheap, like silver…that was a couple of months ago.
        My question, ……Palladium seems to be chasing gold higher…..just noticed it was acting different this evening…..just wondering…. 🙂

        • On August 4, 2020 at 4:53 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Gold $2027…….Palladium $2024

  14. On August 4, 2020 at 3:53 pm,
    GrowingTrees says:

    Took a flyer on Trevali Mining… 70 million oz silver… zinc renewable s play: $.075

    • On August 4, 2020 at 7:14 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi GrowingTrees. I’m a long beleaguered Trevali investor, and I’m waiting on them to figure out their short-term financing situation, so that they can move on. One idea was to sell one of their 4 mines, another was to bring in a strategic partner (likely Glencore), or they want to come up with a financing package to get them through this period.

      The good news is that TV Trevali has a nice Silver kicker, and Zinc and Lead prices have been rising once again. I believe if they can just get through the next 6 months (2 quarters) that they’ll be doing incredibly well. Right now they are hammered down bad and distressed, but that is because Zinc & Lead and Silver prices weren’t so hot in 2019 and early 2020, but now things are turning around and there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

      I do worry that it is coming a day late and a dollar short, but if they can get an extension on their loan agreements, then they’ll live to fight another day. It’s a real shame that a Zinc/Lead/Silver producer with 4 mines is under so much duress.

      Did you see this recent press release?

      _________________________________________________

      Trevali Provides Update on Revolving Credit Facility and Strategic Review Process

      by @nasdaq on 31 Jul 2020

      “Trevali Mining Corporation (TSX: TV, OTCQX: TREVF) announced today that it continues to engage with its syndicate of lenders on a solution to short-term financing and liquidity requirements, and has been granted a waiver of compliance with the existing financial covenants until August 31, 2020. As part of the waiver, the minimum financial liquidity requirement of $15 million has been reduced to $10 million. All other terms of the facility remain unchanged.”

      “The Company continues to advance the strategic review process with its financial advisors to explore financing alternatives to enhance shareholder value. No timeline for its completion has been currently defined.”

      https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/trevali-provides-update-on-revolving-credit-facility-78cc1

      • On August 4, 2020 at 7:15 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Some good ideas from my buddy @jmm over at ceo.ca on what Trevali could divest:

        @jmm – “$TV does have some interesting assets that could liquidate creating an attractive package for a buyer.”

        For instance in NS they can sell:

        – heath-steele: Previous underground, +
        halfmile-mine Previous underground, +
        restigouche Previous underground, +
        stratmat deposit
        – Caribou or silver royalty
        – or they can sell there 45% on Gergarub in Namibia to Vedanta

      • On August 5, 2020 at 12:13 pm,
        GrowingTrees says:

        Sorry Ex my posts from my phone and tablet have seemed to be not working 🙁 (Some goods ones too… lol) I hadn’t seen that news update so thank you for that. I have seen that post from ceo… gave me more a push to take small position. I also added to MUX at $1.35 … see what happens

        • On August 5, 2020 at 12:14 pm,
          GrowingTrees says:

          Also hoping Silver stays hot and can be their magic bullet for solving some financial problems.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            GrowingTrees – sorry to see the posts from your phone & tablet didn’t show up but thanks for staying at it. Good luck on both the TV and MUX positions, as both are very undervalued still here, but both have been ugly ducklings with problems for a the last year or two as well.

            Yes, if Silver stays strong, which it will overall, then the Silver credits will help both Trevali and McEwen. Let’s see how it goes…

  15. On August 4, 2020 at 6:03 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Not taking any profits but have added to a number of stocks today that have broken out for another run higher.

    • On August 4, 2020 at 7:17 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Doc – I’ve had a nice balance of trimming back some positions that have really run, and adding new positions or to existing positions that still seem undervalued.

      I know you are more a buy and hold investor, but I’ve had a number of nice swing trades where I only held 1-3 days in some of the more liquid mid-tier Gold & Silver stocks.

      Please drop a line when you think the time to liquidate some positions has arrived.

      • On August 5, 2020 at 3:58 pm,
        David says:

        I took some profits today and added to Vizsla and bought some Scorpio. Picked up Bayhorse again and probably will pick up some Novo when the halt is off. Not sure what to think about the Santacruz halt dragging on. Very strange loss day in miners when gold hitting an all time high. Makes you wonder.

  16. On August 4, 2020 at 8:44 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Telegraph ✪ @GoldTelegraph_· 5h on Twitter:

    “We are in the early innings of one of the greatest wealth transfers the world has ever seen…”

    “Stanley Druckenmiller indirectly makes the bullish case for #gold in under 15 seconds:”

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1290766142009745408

  17. On August 4, 2020 at 10:01 pm,
    Chartster says:
  18. On August 5, 2020 at 4:12 am,
    GrowingTreed says:

    I didn’t Ex. As always, your commentary is much appreciated. Your words echoed kind of what I felt. If Silver continues to rise, that could be the magic bullet 🤞.

    • On August 5, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks GrowingTrees (and Treed)… Looking forward to the Silver bull continuing, although it may be time for a pause.

  19. On August 5, 2020 at 4:50 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    This rally in gold and silver has really surprised me. I am waiting for the inevitable correction/consolidation but I thought it would have occurred by now. This rally over the last month seems to have exceeded all expectations but how higher can it go?

    • On August 5, 2020 at 5:29 am,
      Wolfster says:

      FOMO stage as gold broke $2,000 is making it difficult to read possibly……so much social distancing etc. We can’t rely on the Uber driver signal of him telling us gold is going to the moon.

      • On August 5, 2020 at 5:33 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        ……..Yes, FOMO…………I think I said that yesterday….. I think that is spot on….JMO

        • On August 5, 2020 at 5:34 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          We are in a WHOLE NEW ball game……

          • On August 5, 2020 at 5:38 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I mentioned the other day………THE GANN report, indicated, this move, or the move a couple of days ago, was the 5th strongest move , in the shortest amount of time,..going back to the year 1870….for HISTORICAL references…..
            and History is a good teller…..we are working in a 60 and 90 yr. cycle….just for reference.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 5:41 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            BTW……..Bobby M……suggested that the Gann report, was spot on, and was one of the best, or sharpest for historical record.., or something like that……and that was a couple of years ago….

          • On August 5, 2020 at 5:58 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Above info…..was post on July 31…..also…..just for reference….

          • On August 5, 2020 at 6:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            OOTB – Thanks for the updates on the Gann Report. This has absolutely been a very strong move, and there are many with FOMO diving in.

            I’m still gradually trimming back winners as things continue to surge higher, but thank goodness I had about 60 Gold & Silver stocks to participate in this explosive last 4+ months. My overall trading account (including all the positions Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Uranium, Lithium, etc…) is up about 330% since the March lows. I have about 80 stocks overall, so that is saying something.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 6:49 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Gold at $2047

            Silver at $27.15

            US Dollar at 92.60

            https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

          • On August 5, 2020 at 7:21 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            EX………You should just start your own ETF……you pick the stock, and Irish can transfer the money to a safe island…..

          • On August 5, 2020 at 7:29 am,
            Excelsior says:
          • On August 5, 2020 at 7:41 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂

    • On August 5, 2020 at 6:58 am,
      Matthew says:

      I saw it coming and pointed out the following 9 weeks ago:
      On June 2, 2020 at 11:59 pm,
      Matthew says:
      For the first time since 2003, silver’s 55 week MA has crossed above the 233 week MA and for the first time since 2011, both are pointing up. Just by looking at those MAs you can see that the 2016 setup was vastly inferior and was nothing but a big mean-reversion ignited by gold bottoming at 1045.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=10&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37322778921&a=763751367

      • On August 5, 2020 at 6:59 am,
        Matthew says:

        On June 3, 2020 at 12:05 am,
        Matthew says:
        Notice that the 55/233 “golden cross” was happening just as the crash began. The whole ordeal set us back a little but the coming moves will be healthier for it.
        Zoomed-in for MA detail:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p72003371589&a=763751367

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:01 am,
        Matthew says:

        I correctly expected a move that was better than what we saw 17 years ago:
        On June 3, 2020 at 12:16 am,
        Matthew says:
        Following the last such golden cross nearly 17 years ago, silver shot up more than 50% in within 19 weeks. Such a move this time would put silver at 25-26 by the end of September. Considering the much more favorable conditions this time (technical/fundamental/cyclical), a move beyond that in both price and time doesn’t seem unreasonable.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&st=2000-09-11&en=2005-10-18&id=p72003371589&a=763751367

        • On August 5, 2020 at 9:34 am,
          pyrite says:

          Matthew,
          Any idea if silver tops here and corrects for a while? I have taken some profits but my core position in SILJ remains.
          Thanks.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 10:11 am,
            Matthew says:

            Pyrite, see my comment to David at the bottom of the page at 10:01

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:33 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Great to look back on those HISTORICAL CHARTS……..

  20. On August 5, 2020 at 5:46 am,
    Buzz says:

    Jim Wykoff has a “10” rating on gold bullishness. Never seen that before…

    • On August 5, 2020 at 5:56 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Interesting……..maybe because of the over all strength of the move…..jmo

    • On August 5, 2020 at 6:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Wow. I don’t remember seeing Jim W. with a 10 rating in Gold before either.

      Thanks Buzz. Hey, it looks like Mexus is starting to stir lately…

      • On August 5, 2020 at 6:52 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold price pushes well above $2,000, much more upside possible

        Jim Wyckoff – Wednesday August 05, 2020

        “Technically, the gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,048.00 and then at $2,075.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,015.50 and then at $2,000.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 10.0”

        https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-05/Gold-price-pushes-well-above-2-000-much-more-upside-possible.html

  21. On August 5, 2020 at 6:37 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Greg Mannorino…….out with info on the FED …..wanting to cause MORE INFLATION.,
    video……on next blog section….if, interested….

  22. On August 5, 2020 at 7:00 am,
    Buzz says:

    Yes, MXSG looks to be breaking out. Also drill results in for VIZSF

    • On August 5, 2020 at 7:07 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, Vizsla out with the new drill hole – which is very high grade, but narrow. The market sold off by 12% so apparently they wanted more, more, more….

      ________________________________________

      (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Drills 1,541 g/t Silver Equiv. Over 2 Metres and 261 g/t Silver Equiv. Over 22.6 Metres at Panuco, Mexico

      by @newswire on 5 Aug 2020

      https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-drills-1541-gt-silver-equiv-over-2-metres

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:10 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The 1,541 over 2 meters is great, but even the 261 over 22.6 meters will still be economic if they want to buy the mill they have the option on and put it into production. That’s a nice wide intercept. There are plenty of Silver operations in Mexico mining those kinds of grades. If the market throws more a tantrum I may buy more, but I’ve been waiting for Vizsla to come down some before adding more.

        • On August 5, 2020 at 7:47 am,
          David says:

          Makes you wonder if Vizsla just a “sell the news” event. So far, the market was not excited about Amex either, but then liked Atico. Saw where a company called Portofino Resources took some samples in Red Lake and had some gold in them. They mention Great Bear and some Pure Gold name dropping but market didn’t think much of that either. Still early. I will ride my Vizsla and hold tight. I think moving some profits in general to my royalty bank may be timely.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 8:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The rabid pool of new Vizsla investors just had unrealistic expectations, which is the exact same thing we see every time after a few huge discovery holes. The July 8th bonanza grade hole was truly amazing, but the company stressed over and over again on various interviews, including the one here at the KER for investors not to expect them all to be like that.

            Of course, investors didn’t listen, and in their minds imagined even larger drill hits, and pie in sky results, which is not being practical. Exploration is tough work and no company is going to knock it out of the park on every hole. (that was my point with the Sokoman, Azimut, Nighthawk, New Range posts last week).

            What is important for the longer term is for Vizsla to keep putting out results and determine if they have an economic deposit to mine, and if they should take the option on the mill. So far it is looking solid, and with 3 drills turning and 4th rig being added, there will be plenty of news, and over time the deposit will come more into focus along with investor expectations.

            This was why I completely sold out when Vizsla was peaking a few weeks back, and only bought back in a much smaller tranche once things pulled back down some. It could still correct further if we see things temporarily pullback in the PM space, and if so I’ll be adding. Conversely, if one of their drills turning unearths another bonanza grade hit, it could spike the punchbowl and shoot the stock higher…. thus are the risk/reward dynamics of binary result drill plays. This is also why I mostly invest in companies with established resources in the ground, so it is always there as a backstop and those known ounces will get re-rated higher with higher metals prices.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 8:23 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Some good comments on Vizsla over at ceo.ca, despite many getting fussy.

            @Richrock – “Decent 3 holes confirming continuity at depth and still open at depth. Next set will be stepping out North and South and will likely have Maiden DR from Cordon Del Oro. Obviously day traders and weak hands dumped because we didn’t hit Bullion Vault values AGAIN. Good opportunity to get in for others.”
            ___________________________

            @lithiumgold – “@Richrock i agree and i enjoyed reading this morning: “The high-grade intersection is from the deepest hole drilled to date (over 100m below the very high grades intersected in NP-20-07). Importantly, the mineralization remains open at depth, to the north and to the south.”
            ___________________________

            @flyinthruu – “These are the type of results that explain why more drilling continues to go on at that vein – not barn-burners but solid hits. Just simply creates volitility at this specific MC. Looks like some traders did well playing the news game too.”
            _______________________

            @Goldfinger – “I added $VZLA shares on this morning’s weakness. Nothing wrong with the NR. Expectations may have been ahead of things, however, Panuco story full intact IMO. “

  23. On August 5, 2020 at 7:27 am,
    Buzz says:

    Rick Ackerman’s target set for silver nearly hit—!

    • On August 5, 2020 at 7:31 am,
      Excelsior says:

      For the last few weeks almost every technicians targets have been hit and exceeded.

      We had quipped that when some of these prior resistance levels got taken out that the move would surprise even the most ardent bulls…. and it has.

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:34 am,
        Excelsior says:

        If we backed up the clock to the March lows when Silver was hitting $12, there would have been zero technicians expecting that by early August Silver would be over $27.

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:35 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ditto…….Ex…….surprise, surprise, surprise…..Gomer Pyle…..1964… 🙂 ….

        • On August 5, 2020 at 7:36 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Where is Glen……?

        • On August 5, 2020 at 7:38 am,
          Excelsior says:
          • On August 5, 2020 at 7:43 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂

  24. On August 5, 2020 at 7:32 am,
    Matthew says:

    The lower grade hit contains nearly twice the silver as the high grade one. 2 meters is not great.

    • On August 5, 2020 at 7:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, but the fact they are find very high grades of 1500 g/t silver indicates there is more to be found. If they can string together a resource that is mostly in the 250-400 g/t with high grade 1,000 g/t+ hits intermixed, it will still be a good deposit to mine. The market was just expecting every hole to be bonanza holes, which is not reasonable. Vizsla is still incredibly cashed up with 3 drills turning and 4th rig being added, so there will be a steady stream of news and the overall resource will start coming more into focus, as will investor expectations.

      • On August 5, 2020 at 7:46 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Vizsla’s last drill hole on July 8th was an absolute barn-burner, but the company stated in about 3 different interviews for investors not to expect them all to be like that.

        “Vizsla Drills 2,889 G/T Silver and 107.9 G/T Gold over 3.7 Metres within 1,808 G/T Silver and 66.8 G/T Gold over 6.0 Metres at Panuco, Mexico”

  25. On August 5, 2020 at 8:02 am,
    Charles says:

    Hey Matthew – I was wondering if I could get your thoughts on DUST from a chart perspective. I am not thinking of investing so much as I monitor to see when a correction might be coming. It has been flatlining for the last little while so moving averages, bollinger bands and PSAR are all getting pretty tight on the weekly chart.

    • On August 5, 2020 at 8:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Misfits – Dust To Dust

      https://youtu.be/xY47hIlbErk

      • On August 5, 2020 at 8:32 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Sorry that tune just popped up when you mentioned DUST.

        • On August 5, 2020 at 8:43 am,
          Charles says:

          Too funny. Your two passions seem to be gold stock and music potporri. Instead of a list of gold stocks I think we need a list of Ex’s favorite iTunes LOL!

          • On August 5, 2020 at 8:51 am,
            Excelsior says:

            haha! It probably won’t shock you to learn I have several thousand CDs, and 2 Terrabytes of music downloaded of many genres. 😉

    • On August 5, 2020 at 9:38 am,
      Matthew says:

      Charles, “flattening” is the right word! Look at the weekly Stos and MACD. I’m not sure I trust in this environment and would rather use options or short GDX/GDXJ. You can always get some leverage with margin.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p98673606260

      • On August 5, 2020 at 9:41 am,
        Matthew says:

        I can see why one might be tempted to buy it just as I can see why one might be tempted to sell their miners but I would wait for evidence that it is really turning up. Today’s bounce doesn’t do it for me.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38947425373

        • On August 5, 2020 at 11:14 am,
          Charles says:

          I guess I still bear some scars from the bear market. But agreed I am doing a lot less selling. From a sentiment standpoint it just seems so bullish everywhere which makes me wonder if we are do for a correction, but for the most part I am just gritting my teeth and standing pat or trading out of some large caps that have run into small or producers to explorers where I see opportunities for outsized gains in companies that have run as much and are more or less just starting on their journeys north remembering not to cut my winners especially in Silver where I see much more upside.

          • On August 5, 2020 at 11:15 am,
            Charles says:

            How about that for a run on sentence. Geez!

          • On August 5, 2020 at 11:39 am,
            Matthew says:

            I liked that sentence!
            Our big gains combined with all the overbought readings make it easy to worry right now but the big picture technicals and fundamentals make it just as easy not to worry or to worry more about missing out.
            It might be “famous last words” but the situation just does not allow for me to sell much in here (net).
            Sentiment indicators can cause a lot of pain if acted on, that much is clear. I see it all the time and we’ve seen it a lot in recent weeks. In addition, a lot of experts with large followings have been calling tops repeatedly in recent weeks so a top will probably have to wait until those guys either go silent or lose their credibility. There will be little sign of fear from anywhere when a significant top really is near, and it will be laughed at. No one is laughing at anyone’s concerns right now since most seem to share the same concerns themselves.
            Earnings season is coming and the miners haven’t even priced-in what the metals have accomplished on the their own price charts so I expect more surprises to the upside.

  26. On August 5, 2020 at 8:09 am,
    David says:

    Minnova Corp having another interesting day.

    • On August 5, 2020 at 8:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The “Stateside effect.” 🙂

  27. On August 5, 2020 at 9:35 am,
    David says:

    My miners went red after US attack on physical. Gold still up $30 but means nothing. Who wants our shares that is corrupt?

    • On August 5, 2020 at 9:39 am,
      David says:

      Must be JPM as silver attack seems over done.

    • On August 5, 2020 at 10:01 am,
      Matthew says:

      David, at this stage, this action is just what we needed. Top-callers are everywhere and sentiment IS at a bullish extreme overall (but apparently not with the many experts who are now roadkill due to repeated bad calls) so getting today’s gap filled in what looks like a bearish reversal not only serves to reset sentiment but also will cause many to sell too much and even go short. Such people will be our fuel for the next leg higher and that leg will come much sooner than they think. We are on the verge of seeing leverage to the metals return to our miners and those who are short because they think we have an intermediate top or “need” a “significant” correction are going to be very unhappy.
      I have already added to my new MUX position since it went red and will buy more in the days ahead if I get the chance.
      I do not believe we are in for a long correction here (my guess is it will be no more than days).

      • On August 5, 2020 at 10:10 am,
        David says:

        Thanks Matthew. With gold and silver up for the day, it seemed an illogical time to smash everything. I am sure they will claim outstanding “ADP” numbers and employment is screaming higher in the US or some other fantasy statistic. General markets higher so that adds to the farce of the moment. Think I will raise some cash. I said it earlier and got off on some other tangents.

  28. On August 5, 2020 at 10:16 am,
    Bill says:

    Thanks Matt…I think a good angle on whats going on. So many missed the boat on the huge move over that last many months.

  29. On August 5, 2020 at 10:37 am,
    Matthew says:

    SILJ vs SLV (SILJ:SLV) is at the same level it was at in mid-April and is now being capped by the “P” pivot. I think it will turn up and breakout soon since it has been 21 weeks since the last intermediate degree low in March.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p46227438755&a=790289399

  30. On August 5, 2020 at 11:01 am,
    Matthew says:

    A reminder for those thinking that silver must have a big retracement once it stalls…
    Most of the experts we all know thought that gold would pull back to 1350 or lower after it broke out yet that never came close to happening. In fact, even the March plunge fell $100 short of doing so since 1450 was the low. Those who expected that pullback included guests right here on KER and many listeners agreed.

    This bull market is doing what bull markets do: leave everyone behind and waiting/hoping for another chance. When gold finally does top for months, it will probably happen so far above the 2011 high that the pullback will never threaten to dip back below it. I think we can expect the same kind of action from silver (adjusted for its much greater volatility, of course).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p97392530884

    • On August 5, 2020 at 12:15 pm,
      GrowingTrees says:

      Thanks Matthew… your silver comments have seemed to be true so far.