Weekend Show – Sat 26 Sep, 2020

Hour 1 – After a volatile week in the markets we take a step back to understand where things go from here

Full First Hour

It was a volatile week for every major market. Selling hit everything except for the US Dollar at the start of the week but US markets managed to bounce back at on Friday. With the US election around the corner we should continue to expect volatility.

I hope you all enjoy this weekend’s show. I spend the first half on the broad markets and in the last two segments we focus on the gold sector in terms of stocks. Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor kicks off the show with an extended segment focusing on the US markets pullback, gold’s correction, and the impact the USD will have if it keeps moving higher. Rick shares key levels to watch and his strategy for each sector through the end of the year.
  • Segment 3 – Steve Todoruk, Investment Advisor at Sprott Global joins me to look at the exploration gong on in Australia. The Australian explorers have been greatly outperforming other gold juniors for a couple key reasons. To take Steve up on his offer to review your portfolio you can email him at STodoruk@sprottglobal.com or email me directly.
  • Segment 4 – TriStar Gold (TSX.V:TSG & OTCQX:TSGZF) and the President and CEO Nick Appleyard wrap up the first hour by outlining the 12,000+ meter drill program that has just stared at the Castelo de Sonhos Property in Brazil.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week – Please let me know what you all think of these stocks.


Rick Bensignor
Steve Todoruk
Nick Appleyard – TriStar Gold

Comments:
  1. On September 26, 2020 at 5:31 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Al, Cory thanks for the weekend editorial. Rick great thoughts!

    Before I get started on my gold update, I want to take a moment to respond to Ex/shad’s partial farewell post. It caught me off guard and I did not have the timing to properly respond to it.

    When I first came to this site many man years ago I did not know what to expect. I remember lurking in and watching some exchanges with Bird/Matt/sha also know as ex at that time, Jerry of course was always there dt, cfs, Irish and so many more contributors that amazingly are still around. I think the battles and healthy battles that were exchanged between bird and Matt as well as ex is what really caught my attention at that time as I was really more interested in technicals and price objective in regards to the stocks.

    As many have said Ex, you have been a pillar with providing us many great companies over the years. This has helped in combination with Matt’s and dt and cfs etc choices of strengthening and condensing which company to ultimately buy. When you have in here such powerful heads and I’ve always said to myself if I can get 3:4 sharks in here really pushing a company than that has my 100% attention and my odds are very good. My strengths have always been board of directors, management team and jurisdiction with a slightly lower assessment of cash/debt level. By far my weakness has always been ounces in the ground, drill holes and future estimate of how fast they can produce. Some of you in here blow me away with that when you guys speak. Another language. Dt, yourself, Matt, cfs, wolf, many others forgive me if i forget. Doc has always been great in that regard as well.

    Sometime we don’t know what is lost until we lose it and than we can’t get that back. To lose a blogger like yourself or Matt or jetty or cfs etc, would be to lose a big part of this ker family. My first hope ex is that you are going to be fine with your family because that’s what matters first. My second hole is that your dream of being a full time investor comes true. You are really good at what you do and your technicals are outstanding! I have no doubt you will succeed. Timing is key..hard work is a must! But Patience is the number 1 reason that I have learned to get to your goals and achieve them.

    I was hurt in 2011 with my portfolio. My losses were great and I shared that only with Matt. It is the number 1 reason I left the ker for sometime. At that time I had become a full time trader and left my job for the freedom. It quickly brought me back to reality and long story short you live and learn. For me to be here today and tell you that I’m finally back in the drivers seat and in control of my finances and portfolio would seem to easy for many viewers but it did not come without enormous stress, anxiety, long nights, Ricky relationship and sleepless nights. But throughout all that, I kept it together and did not force the hand, I played my cards and took some risk but this time my lenses were more focused and I can’t explain what Matt has done to help me fine tune things. I have a choice today to go full time or not but I have chosen to not because I don’t day trade and for me that’s left to the pros. I believe you are one.

    I want to thank you for always responding to my post and being respectful. I know there has been heated moments with you and Matt or even us at times but that’s just the fire In us. I once left as well ex, I quickly realized that this was my home and only place I could vent, share and get words of wisdom. So I and we all hope you will “ Forever come back” lol and always be part of this ker. I wish prosperity to you and yours.

    And remember that sometimes we do need to get away even from ker or the daily struggle and recharge. It helps us with mental and inner strength.

    Best of luck and I will look forward to your post whenever they come.

    Your pal glen

    • On September 26, 2020 at 6:42 am,
      chris says:

      Nice post!

      • On September 26, 2020 at 6:52 am,
        irishtony says:

        >>> DITTO <<<

        • On September 26, 2020 at 7:08 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          +3 DITTO,,,,,,,,

        • On September 28, 2020 at 4:18 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks guys, and a special thanks to Glenfidish with that thoughtful post.

          We’ve had a lot of interesting discussions over the years, and we’ve all learned from one another. Glen, you’ve really come into your own with technical analysis and cycles analysis, and many here appreciate your thoughts and insights. Keep up the great work amigo!

          Yes, I’ll stop in once in a while if there is something interesting to share (like if a few of the takeover targets we’ve been discussing this year finally get acquired, or stellar drill news, etc…), and will try to listen and read as often as possible on the go. We’ll be very busy the next few months (knee deep in packing, paint, ripping out flooring all weekend), selling the home, and often will be out crisscrossing the country in rural areas, and it will be all I can do to just monitor my trading account, much less follow the macro sector, individual companies, or have much to contribute.

          Once we figure out our new home, get everything transported across the country, figure out new jobs, and get re-rooted (hopefully by year end) then I’ll have a bit more time to research and contribute. Until then as you mentioned, it will help to get away from the daily grind and recharge, and I wish everyone well in their trading and prosperity for the balance of 2020.

          Ever Upward!

    • On September 26, 2020 at 7:27 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Hi Glen, Ex is probably reading your post as I speak. When you are married to the markets it can take a toll on your family, I have been told a few times by the misses, I DON’T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT IT, LOL! He just needs time to regroup, rethink, and refresh, as we all know, been there done that. DT

      • On September 28, 2020 at 4:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Haha!. Yes, my lady has a honey-do list that is never ending right now, and has made it clear I don’t have time to discuss investing and need to keep packing up our life. Ironically she likes it when I do well investing to bankroll our travels and life adventures.

        Yes, it will be helpful to “regroup, rethink, and refresh” as you mentioned. Thanks!

    • On September 26, 2020 at 11:13 am,
      Canuckski says:

      I was thinking about Ex’s comments yesterday evening as well. I was glad that Corey extended an invitation to Ex, and I still believe that a mini Ex bi-monthly cameo focused upon one or two junior mining companies would be an interesting concept.
      Plus, it’s not too often people open their kimono and share a bit of themselves. I appreciated that as well.
      I wish Ex all the best and do hope he can stay engaged with the Ker family.

      • On September 28, 2020 at 4:26 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Much appreciated Canuckski. Ha! Yes, Cory is a great guy, and that was nice of him to offer, but for now, I still have a lot to learn, and won’t have as much time for company deep dives. Also, to limit it to 1-2 companies is like asking a guy to open up a bag of potato chips and just eat 1-2 chips. If there was a time where we did a review, I’d want to see if I could cover a few dozen companies, rapid-fire in under 10 minutes. Lol!

    • On September 27, 2020 at 9:40 am,
      Ebolan says:

      I am very sorry to hear that. I have been consumed with some issues so have not kept up on this board.

      I thought Ex had retired young long ago, like some others here. I recall him stating that he worked for a publishing company at one point and I thought that was where he had made his fortune. But I must be thinking of someone else. Anyone recall who that was? My memory, like the rest of me, doesn’t work as well as it once did.

      In any event, I wish Ex the best. Everyone’s situation is different, but I know loosing a job today can be extremely difficult. I worked for a small company and the owners were in the process of creating an ESOP, but changed their mind and sold the company to a larger company and that company got bought by an even larger company. Several people lost their jobs and most who did either were unable to find another job and went into early retirement or wound up working for a fraction of what they had made. A few found comparable or better positions elsewhere but they were in the minority. I am still working for the company but feel like a dead man.

      • On September 28, 2020 at 4:41 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Ebolan. Yes, I had mentioned in a previous life, I worked in record label and book publishing promotions in a family business but that was in the late 90’s. Prior to that I had also worked in telemarketing for radio promotions, a newspaper, and a horse magazine. Prior to that I ran my own landscaping business. However, in the late 90’s I was also selling insurance products and small business consulting with Fran Tarkenton (used to work out of Fran’s office in Atlanta), and had start my own marketing company around group employee benefits, then was in the pool to start my own captive insurance & financial planning agency in corporate Amercia, but changed paths to work in technology sales, data security & workflow optimization. It was a nice career, but all things come to an end, and new things begin. I had said tongue in cheek a few months back that now I was beholden no company, but that is because the position was eliminated along with about 1,000 others. Yes, many have still not found work or have had to settle for making far less the previously, due to the pandemic, business shut downs, and anemic economy.

        My goal was to go even more aggressive with the investing this year, with the potential of just being a full-time investor. However, the plan was plow my excess wages into them, but then the change in employment derailed those plans and I’ve had to be more conservative and save and work with what I had. I tripled my trading account value this year though, which was a big step towards that goal, but I need these Jr Miners to rip a few multiples higher before I’d be comfortable walking away from a career for good, as there are many ups and down cycles in investing, and yet the bills keep coming every month.

        I hope you make a fortune investing Ebolan, and one day get rid of the company you work for and feel like a man alive once again. I was feeling like a dead man, and was working myself to death, and after the last 4 months off several health conditions have all cleared up, that I now realize were mostly stress and unhealthy eating. Live well my friend, and be well.

    • On September 28, 2020 at 10:01 am,
      GrowingTrees says:

      Well said!

      • On September 28, 2020 at 10:09 am,
        GrowingTrees says:

        from Glen up top I meant to say.

  2. On September 26, 2020 at 5:38 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Gold update!

    Last we spoke I had mentioned a key leve of $1846 low for red candle month. To my own surprise it held thus far with 3 days to go. Make no mistake that level will be broken to the downside in October and my new latest update puts us in a final low with gold around the 12th -23rd week of October. I originally said 16th so anywhere inside that timing band could come that low.

    The key level number will be shared in the coming week. I have yet to hear anyone give a call with a number that is the one in my head. If I do hear it or see it I will come out and say that’s the one. It’s not a game but more of a challenge to myself and work.

    For the record the October monthly candle will show a big red dip but will and should end in green if my pattern holds true.

    As Jerry would say everything will be fine gold is headed much higher for years to come. As Gary would say we are looking for that intermediate bottom for the next level higher. As Matt would say be a buyer on days that are hit very hard as you never know when the turn can come.

    And finally as ex would say..

    Forever up!

    Glen

    • On September 26, 2020 at 7:13 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Thanks for the Info. As always ,appreciate the updates.

      • On September 26, 2020 at 7:45 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Double Ditto! DT

    • On September 27, 2020 at 12:12 pm,
      Canuckski says:

      Hey Glen,
      I’ll throw my two levels out to the crowd to beat you to end of week and to let you know that I’m trying to think this through as well. Likely foolish thinking I know since I originally missed anticipating the above 1800 move (and am still influenced by that perspective). I am definitely not in the realm of Matt’s charting for sure, but since we’re among friends, when we go lower, the lows would be 1817 and possibly 1776. I don’t really see the latter level becoming reality though.

    • On September 28, 2020 at 10:12 am,
      GrowingTrees says:

      Thanks Glen!

  3. On September 26, 2020 at 7:25 am,
    cfs says:

    Globe says new coverage rates Nomad Royalty “buy”

    2020-09-24 08:43 ET – In the News

    The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 24, edition that Industrial Alliance Securities analyst Puneet Singh says Nomad Royalty Company ($1.79) possesses a business model that is “high margin, safe and proven at providing returns.” The Globe’s David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Singh began coverage with a “buy” rating and $2.30 share target

    Nomad took over Coral Gold.

  4. On September 27, 2020 at 7:13 am,
    cfs says:
  5. On September 27, 2020 at 7:17 am,
    cfs says:

    Keith Neumeyer answers questions about First Majestic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGhRQWX1jgU

  6. On September 27, 2020 at 9:57 am,
    Matthew says:

    The gold miners index found support where it should have so it will be bad news if it makes a new low this week…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p21594055973&a=577249153

  7. On September 27, 2020 at 12:04 pm,
    Bill says:

    Thanks Matt
    We could drop another $100 on Gold….my guys proprietary indicators turned bearish for the first time in years. I’m standing back for now. Mid Oct should tell us more I think.

  8. On September 28, 2020 at 4:15 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Another great week of shows and information. Sadly at the end of the week I read about Ex’s circumstances..hopefully it’s only a hiatus…Ex has been a fixture here for individuals like myself who came along more recently…everyone here brings something different to the table so to speak. Ex was like an encyclopedia when it came to info about specific stocks. His contributions will be missed

    • On September 28, 2020 at 4:49 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for those nice words Wolfster. Yes, it will just be a hiatus for a few months, as the researching and posting took a lot of time, focus, and being in front of a computer all the time. We’re working on closing up one chapter of life, and beginning another, and I won’t have the time to keep up with the economics and investing side as much, or be glued to the screen. I’m looking forward to a few cross-country drives, and taking our time to camp and see natural parks peppered across the lands, but not looking forward to all the work that needs to be done to get this house on the market by next week, selling the house, the move, looking for a new place to live, looking for a new job, etc…

      Until then, I won’t have the time to read or write as often, but will check in occasionally. As you mentioned there are many great contributors here at the KER that each bring different insights to the table, and I absolutely appreciate that, and will be sorry to miss some of those insights, but wish you and the KER crew a really prosperous rest of 2020!

      Cheers!

      • On September 28, 2020 at 7:03 am,
        Rene says:

        Thanks Excellsior, I wish you best of luck and safe journey, very much appreciate all your contributions to the KER

        • On September 28, 2020 at 6:51 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Much appreciated Rene, and yes hopefully we’ll have a bit of luck and a safe journey.

          Hoping your balance of the year is great!

  9. On September 28, 2020 at 4:21 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Now regarding investment side of things…..I may be looking through rose coloured glasses but I think gold will be range bound here for the short term. $1820 to the low side and $1880 or maybe even slightly higher like $1900 to the upside. Then I expect it to breakout to new highs.

    As for specific stocks,I hope someone took advantage of the pullback to $2 for kodiak. This is going to trade up just like gbr did

  10. On September 28, 2020 at 8:45 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT jumped back above broken speed line support and filled its 9/21 gap. Will it plunge anew from here? I am guessing that it won’t but it’s too soon to say with any confidence.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p15196432691&a=814592864

    • On September 28, 2020 at 9:53 am,
      Charles says:

      Agreed. Still stuck below the weekly downsloping trend line, but I like today’s action.

  11. On September 28, 2020 at 8:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    SILJ is at an interesting confluence of support/resistance that I think will be resolved with a move higher…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p01487384060&a=815101039

  12. On September 28, 2020 at 8:50 am,
    Matthew says:

    Silver precisely found Fibonacci fan support last Thursday:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p10647234158&a=817810305

  13. On September 28, 2020 at 8:59 am,
    David says:

    Garbage. Will wait to see if afternoon improves.

  14. On September 28, 2020 at 10:10 am,
    Matthew says:
  15. On September 28, 2020 at 10:15 am,
    Matthew says:
  16. On September 28, 2020 at 1:31 pm,
    Charles says:

    The miners held up pretty well today, but I still think there is one more push down in the near future to wash out any weak hands. I might feel differently if the rally today was happening at the end of the week versus the beginning of the week. Still Bull markets tend to surprise to the upside so tomorrow will be interesting to see if there is any follow through.

  17. On September 28, 2020 at 5:44 pm,
    David says:

    Most of my miners are neither in the GDX or the GDXJ. At the time I wrote “garbage” my miners were down, the dollar was down, Gold was up, Silver was Up and the General Markets were up. It was not until after noon CST when my 70 miners went green and ended up less than 1% up. A non garbage day is when at least 75-100% miners are green. Despite $20 up gold, today was garbage.

    • On September 29, 2020 at 5:24 am,
      Charles says:

      I only had three of 20 miners down on the day. Most were up early and despite some mid day dips stayed up. I ended up 3% on the day. That is not garbage to me. The shorter term charts look constructive to me. See what today brings.

      • On September 29, 2020 at 9:13 am,
        David says:

        Charles:
        Thanks for that info. If you don’t mind, are you on Canada exchange or other. Are you weighted more in producers, explorers, gold or silver etc. Ex and I compared previously and I found I was more explorer weighted and I am trying to change that. Thanks in advance.

        • On September 29, 2020 at 9:21 am,
          David says:

          FWIW:
          While gold has remained positive all morning, my miners have had a 110% reversal and are now in the red. Less than half still green, and many of those with best profits red. I could say it is profit taking but this has been going on since July.

  18. On September 29, 2020 at 5:07 pm,
    Charles says:

    Thanks for the reply David. I can tell you I don’t have any magic bullets. I have
    learned by hard knocks over time. I stated investing in this sector in 2011 and rode a lot of stocks down to the 2015 low so I might not be the best guy to follow but I have learned a lot from folks on this board especially Matthew who is a great technician and Doc another very experienced technician and of course Ex. Regarding technicals I tend to follow Matthews lead, but he is aggressive in his calls at times which is not for everyone. I have two accounts I manage – one taxable and the other an IRA. These represent about 10% of my total investable assets. The rest are with my wife and my investment advisor that I have been with for 30 years.

    In the IRA I tend to have larger caps and royalties so more conservative. I try to stick to miners that pay a dividend, but I do have a few explorers that I trade around for some extra juice. The taxable account I have mainly juniors and right now I am fairly concentrated in silver miners given the gold/sliver ratio and bull market. Most of my silver miners are producers with some exploration upside. I do mix in gold miners to, but most are developers with near term production prospects. Unlike Ex, I hold fewer positions and tend to hold long term and trade around the position based on technicals. My positions can be fairly concentrated when I think a position is about to break out or is moving up. That works great as long as you time the buys right and don’t over stay you welcome. Sometimes that works out for me, but it can also result in large account draw downs when my timing is off something happens to a stock that is unanticipated in my analysis. Things have worked out for me this year as I have more than doubled my taxable account. The IRA is up about 75% this year. This correction has been a grind but so far I have managed it pretty well with some trading over the past sixty days.

    Hope this helps. More than happy to share investment ideas with you if you’d like.

    • On September 29, 2020 at 7:37 pm,
      David says:

      Charles:
      Thanks. That helps a lot. After discussions with you and Ex it is apparent that during this extended period of consolidation, that the price gains made in the junior explorers have taken a back seat to producers/ near producers as the gains in physical can be reflected on the balance sheet through earnings. I would think the producers would be more attractive to managed money during this corrective period also. So I would also think if I am holding a higher percentage of junior explorers, than I should expect greater pull backs in junior explorers on a daily basis and therefore underperform. On the other hand, assuming the junior explorers are somewhat successful, then if the uptrend should continue in the miners, then possibly I would out perform the more conservative portfolio miners. If I want to reduce risk, I need to move more up the food chain…
      Hard to write this during the chaotic debate going on in the background. Waiting for the adults to show up.

      • On September 30, 2020 at 5:03 am,
        Charles says:

        If you want to move up the food chain the best thing I think you can do is go larger cap and go royalty/streamer. Royalty and streaming companies have much less volatility and much more diversified. It is really like holding a basket of producers without taking the operating risk. Ex and I invest in a lot of the smaller ones that have good growth stories, but I have held some of the larger ones from time to time and most are very well run. I can share some names if you like.

  19. On September 29, 2020 at 8:13 pm,
    David says:

    I should have mentioned that Matthew and many others have been very helpful as their daily technicals have made it easier to sleep at night. I suffer from fear of “interference” in markets by inside forces. It has become a fact of life and I must learn to tolerate it and keep the end goal in mind.

  20. On September 30, 2020 at 5:00 am,
    charles says:

    The one thing I will say is that we are in a bull market long term, so sitting and doing nothing is an okay strategy right now. The other thing that Rick Ackerman stressed to me once is taking partial profits which has really helped me to relax. So when things started to go parabolic in some of my stocks in June/July, I started to take some partial profits and build some cash. That allows you to then have some cash to reinvest over the next few weeks when we truly do hit an intermediate bottom (assuming we have not already hit one). Best of luck and feel free to reach out any time. I look at a lot of charts so if you have any stocks you think look good in the current environment let me know, but I am pretty much fully invested at the moment, but might sell some if we start down another leg. We’ll see.