KER Commentary – Tue 12 Jan, 2021

Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Brexit – What are the key catalysts in the near term?

Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Optimas LLC joins me to share his insights on gold weakness, volatility and the euphoric pop higher in Bitcoin, and finally a Brexit deal signed. I have Octavio comment on the inflation trade, raising interest rates (especially on the longer end), and if Brexit will lead to a couple more countries leaving the Euro and/or EU.

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Comments:
  1. On January 12, 2021 at 10:04 am,
    bonzo says:

    Matthew, I finally bought some BBBXF@.179 this morning. See you at the annual meeting.
    I also bought some NKOSF@.30 Anyone here own Labrador?

    • On January 12, 2021 at 1:48 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Bonzo, I think you got a great deal. I bought more today, too. My average price was under .23 Cdn.

      • On January 12, 2021 at 4:53 pm,
        bonzo says:

        Matthew, when I saw that you, Sprott, Friedland, and Rob Mc own BBBXF, I decided I’d better get some too.

        • On January 12, 2021 at 4:57 pm,
          bonzo says:

          I also bought Timberline and Labrador Gold today.

  2. On January 12, 2021 at 10:10 am,
    cfs says:

    New Tech samples up to 1,150 g/t Ag at La Escondida
    2021-01-12 12:10 ET – News Release
    Mr. Jonathan George reports
    NEW TECH SAMPLES UP TO 1,150 G/T SILVER AT LA ESCONDIDA SILVER PROJECT, SONORA, MEXICO
    New Tech Minerals Corp. has released results from a recently completed rock-chip sampling program conducted on its La Escondida silver project, Sonora, Mexico.

    Only samples, but looking good.

  3. On January 12, 2021 at 10:20 am,
    cfs says:

    Freegold drills 348 m of one g/t Au at Golden Summit
    2021-01-12 11:35 ET – News Release
    Ms. Kristina Walcott reports
    FREEGOLD INTERCEPTS 348 METRES GRADING 1.0 G/T AU AT GOLDEN SUMMIT
    Freegold Ventures Ltd. has released drilling results from its continuing drilling program at Golden Summit, located near Fairbanks, Alaska. During 2020, 18 holes (2001-2018) were drilled and assay results for 10 holes are pending. Assay laboratories are continuing to experience significant delays. Drilling is planned to resume in early February 2021 with four drill rigs, and to continue throughout 2021.

    • On January 12, 2021 at 5:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good long intercept drill hit from Freegold Ventures, but the market still sold off on the news. I may add more tomorrow to the position I reinitiated at the end of last year.

      • On January 12, 2021 at 5:06 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I had a position in Freegold Ventures last September, but only for 4 days, and just for a quick scalp of 23%. This time, I expect more like 230%. 🙂

        • On January 13, 2021 at 1:34 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I did end up adding just a bit to my Freegold Ventures position today.

  4. On January 12, 2021 at 10:25 am,
    cfs says:

    Again only sampling:

    Stuhini samples up to 5,681 g/t Ag at Ruby Creek
    2021-01-12 10:51 ET – News Release
    Mr. David O’Brien reports
    STUHINI EXPANDS ADERA ZONE TARGET AND SAMPLES UP TO 5681 G/T AG AT RUBY CREEK ADERA CORRIDOR
    Stuhini Exploration Ltd. has identified multiple high-grade silver/lead showings along a newly expanded 7.5-kilometre-long target area now referred to as the Adera corridor at the Ruby Creek project located 20 kilometres east of Atlin, B.C.

  5. On January 12, 2021 at 10:30 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    https://palisadesradio.ca/ Michael Oliver with some pretty outlandish price targets for Gold/Silver with short time horizons. If he’s right, I’m wondering if Americans are going to be killing each other in the streets. I say that because I’m having trouble figuring out an economic reason that would produce these targets alone. JMO

  6. On January 12, 2021 at 10:32 am,
    cfs says:

    Freeman Gold drills 10 m of 14 g/t Au at Lehmi

    2021-01-12 07:48 ET – News Release
    Mr. William Randall reports
    FREEMAN INTERSECTS SHALLOW HIGH-GRADE OXIDE GOLD MINERALIZATION AT LEMHI: 14 G/T AU OVER 10 METRES, 3.4 G/T AU OVER 51.6 METRES, AND 1.1 G/T AU OVER 189.1 METRES
    Freeman Gold Corp. has provided assay results of core from four of 34 diamond drill holes on Freeman Gold’s 100-per-cent-owned Lemhi gold project located in Idaho.

  7. On January 12, 2021 at 10:34 am,
    cfs says:

    Contact Gold drills 35m of 2.24 g/t Au at Green Springs

    2021-01-12 07:47 ET – News Release
    Mr. Matt Lennox-King reports
    CONTACT GOLD DRILLS 2.24 G/T OXIDE GOLD OVER 35 METRES AT THE GREEN SPRINGS PROJECT, NEVADA

  8. On January 12, 2021 at 1:49 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    “Nibbled” on some SAND and IAG today.

  9. On January 12, 2021 at 4:54 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Albemarle Warns Of EV Slowdown If Weak Lithium Prices Persist

    Jan. 12, 2021 – Carl Surran, SA News Editor

    – Global lithium supplies will fall short of projections for demand to more than triple by 2025 if prices do not rebound to fund expansions, says Eric Norris, who runs the lithium business for leading producer Albemarle (NYSE:ALB).

    – Prices for lithium fell last year due in part to the pandemic, forcing Albemarle and other producers to pause expansion plans, a step they will reverse only if the price is right, Norris tells the Reuters Next conference.

    – Global lithium supply and demand at the end of 2020 was nearly even, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, but by 2025, demand is forecast to outstrip supply by nearly 228K metric tons.

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3650926-albemarle-warns-of-ev-slowdown-weak-lithium-prices-persist?mail_subject=lac-albemarle-warns-of-ev-slowdown-if-weak-lithium-prices-persist&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

  10. On January 12, 2021 at 6:26 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Hindsight Depression

    Jan. 11, 2021 – Lyn Alden Schwartzer

    “Alternative financial media often speculates about what would happen if the US were to encounter another major depression: something as terrible and long-lasting as the Great Depression.”

    “However, the unfortunate truth is that by many metrics, the US and much of the rest of the world have already been in a mild depression for the past 12 years, ever since the 2008 global financial crisis. It’s just not as obvious as the 1930s depression, because higher levels of technology and anti-deflationary monetary policy disguised it in a nominal sense.”

    “A comparison I’ve made a number of times over the past year is that in many ways the 2010s were a lot like the 1930s, and the 2020s are shaping up to be a lot like the 1940s, in terms of monetary and fiscal policy…”

    “After the 2007 peak, a recession and major asset price collapse began. Total debt as a percentage of GDP peaked in 2009, but it was primarily a private debt bubble. Federal debt as a percentage of GDP was moderate (about 65%) at the start of the crisis, but quickly grew to over 100% in the subsequent years as the private debt bubble was mainly pushed up to the sovereign level. The massive private deleveraging resulted in a bank crisis and the biggest economic contraction since the Great Depression. Banks were recapitalized via quantitative easing, but due to the major destruction in other net worth (stocks and houses) and several deflationary forces, and the fact that broad money supply didn’t expand very quickly, it was still a disinflationary environment rather than an inflationary environment.”

    “By 2020, private debt had gone flat for a while as a percentage of GDP (household debt was down while corporate debt was up), but federal debt began skyrocketing from an already high 106% of GDP baseline due to the pandemic and subsequent economic shutdown. Federal deficits reaching 15-20% of GDP in 2020 approached World War II levels for the first time in modern history, resulting in federal debt levels rapidly moving to 125-130% of GDP and likely higher in the years ahead. The Federal Reserve began discussing yield curve control as an option, and bought a massive amount of Treasuries in mid-March when foreigners and hedge funds sold hundreds of billion in Treasuries, and the Fed continues to buy a significant percentage of Treasury issuance out of necessity. Unlike the 2010s, the broad money supply went up extremely quickly in 2020, because banks were already well-capitalized in this environment, so the combination of fiscal spending and QE (“pandemic MMT”) injected those funds directly into the economy, much like the 1940s.”

    “The biggest difference in terms of policy choices between the Hindsight Depression and the Great Depression, was the response time for the bank recapitalization and money-printing. In the early 1930s, it took about 3 years to do, while in the late 2000s, it took only months. As a result, during this second go-around, less private deleveraging was allowed to occur, fewer banks failed, asset prices were more quickly reflated, and money supply kept going up with no dip:..”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398273-hindsight-depression?mail_subject=bitcoin-i-told-you-that-it-was-different-this-time&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

    • On January 12, 2021 at 6:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Brilliant points from Lyn here! Great article on the stealth Depression we’ve been in, and the macro mess central banks and governmental fiscal policies have gotten us all into.

      Sure nations will introduce more and more stimulus (as austerity in many countries was a trainwreck) and they’ll try and MMT reflate their way out of it, but it will eventually end in currency debasement and true inflation, as stimulus funds, are actually getting to consumers and small businesses and this will finally increase money supply and circulation. Those celebrating the uptick in rates recently are not going to get the last hoorah either, as the central banks are definitely controlling the curve and do not want rates that much higher. The Ten Year has been at 1.13% recently, (nothing that zesty), and maybe they let it get to 2%, but there is no way they are going to let rates normalize up to 4%-7% again, as it would implode their whole system.

      The rates were already down at bare bones minimums near zero, or even negative in Europe and Japan, so rates are going to get stuck in a narrow range, as central banks continue with yield curve controls. Real rates are still negative in any scenario as inflation will outstrip the rates, and so Precious Metals and maybe the Cryptos will be recipients of money flows trying to get outside of the financial tomfoolery we’ve seen on display since the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis.

      Off in the distance I hear the central banks and national fiscal handler chanting, “To infinity and beyond!”

  11. On January 13, 2021 at 5:00 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Gold update!

    Backfilling continues as glen has promised and delivered. Patience my good friends all in good time. Not promising but expecting today and the rest of the week to deliver us green candles and upside targets of $1880-$1940…high probability of $1930 tag and then back down again with back filling.

    Nothing more then right shoulder formation of a larger inverse head and shoulders formation.

    Glen

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