Here’s what happened in the silver market this week and what it means moving forward
I focus this weekend’s show on the volatility in silver (and to a lesser extent gold) this week. I spend two extended segments with Axel Merk and Jeff Christian to better understand the makeup of the silver futures market, how the short squeeze in silver played out, and where the precious metals are left now.
Please keep in touch by emailing me any topics or questions for companies or your thoughts on the markets. My email is Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Alex Merk, Chief Investment Officer at Merk Investments kicks off the show with his insights on the silver short squeeze. We then discuss the broad gold and silver markets and how yields are a key factor in price.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group wraps up the show with an extended conversion initially focused on how the silver futures market functions, and how it is different than ordinary stocks. We then look ahead to where he sees gold and silver in the near term to the end of the year.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Pucara Gold – Results from the initial drill program at the Lourdes Property and upcoming catalysts
- O3 Mining – Recapping recent news – 2021 Exploration Plans, including 150,000 meters of drilling, the Garrison Property Sale, and $30mil financing
- Awale Resources – Final results on the scout drilling campaign and where the next round of drilling
- Capella Minerals – Update on the planned exploration at the Canadian Properties with JV partners Yamana and Ethos Gold
- GR Silver Mining – More details on the Mako Mining acquisition and now much larger land package
- Dore Copper Mining – Recapping the high grade drill results from the Joe Mann Property and upcoming copper exploration results
- Eskay Mining – Following up on the high grade gold drill results released yesterday
- Ridgeline Minerals – A newly public Company with 4 Properties in Nevada with the flagship being a silver asset
- KORE Mining – 2021 Exploration Plans for the Imperial and Long Valley Gold Projects
- Mountain Boy Minerals – Upcoming drill results targeting high grade gold and silver in the Golden Triangle
- Webinar Replay – Gold Bull Resources – Updated Sandman Resource and 2021 Exploration Overview
- District Metals – Diving into the 5,000 meter drill program at the Tomtebo Property now that permits are received
Ex, you are so right about the pension funds and the institutional funds losing money on their clients bonds and how they will turn to gold as a way of preserving wealth. Most people never even look at their finances and the people handling their finances might realize that debt and inflation is a menace but the immediate fear that gripped them last March has been dissipated as the system will take care of itself. When the public wakes up they will not want anything so stale and profitless as bonds, I hope they don’t turn to securities for profit and instead go for gold as you suggest. DT
Thanks DT, and good thoughts. Yes, when the larger investment community starts to understand the narrow range that bonds are going to be stuck in for the foreseeable future (0.5% – 2%), and that real inflation (not the bogus government CPI numbers) is rising far more than that annually, then they will get sick of losing money or simply treading water.
We hear a lot and read a lot about how exciting the recent move higher in interest rates have been as they doubled from 0.55% to 1.12%, but historically this is not that great of a return. Once more larger institutional funds, family offices, and pension funds do the math, and realize interest rates really can’t run up much higher than 1.5%-2% before the Fed moves to control the yield, or they risk blowing up the whole debt-burdened system, then they will start looking for an alternative safe haven play that will outpace inflation and preserve buying power = Gold.
This won’t happen overnight, and will take a few years to play through, and right now many investors are piling into the wrong side of the trade expecting rates to keep ripping higher for years, and they will be sadly disappointed. Rates will only run until they get capped by central bankers, and when the jig is up, the legacy financial system will look for a different safety play, and find the yellow metal. When those larger retirement funds start pouring into the precious metals space, it will provide so much more demand than small retail buyers, jewelry fabrication, or even central bank buying, and will be the fuel for the PM markets for years to come.
Until then…. volatility is back on the menu. 🙂
Jef Christian olways know how to pick the Bottom ! You remember the krippel of Kaiser Soze ! cfs ?
Hey CFs…I have a couple of Mikes pillows..worst pillow on the market.
Hey Hellcat, Michael has more than made up for any fluffy shortcomings by exposing the worst politician on the market.
My point is,His credibility in the marketplace has been has been severely damaged; severely….all because of his infomercials… junk pillows…
That’s a strange conclusion since taking on the criminals in charge puts himself and his business at risk.
Matthew I totally agree..sad..I really like the guy.I have the upmost respect for you.I am just relaying what the “ market” is saying about him.Hopefully the masses take his message seriously.
Gold: Déjà Vu 2020 All Over Again?
Feb. 04, 2021 – Equity Management Academy
Gold price sinks below $1,800 to 2-month low
Mining .com | February 4, 2021
“Spot gold dropped below the $1,800/oz mark for the first time since late November, down 2.5% to $1,787.95/oz by 11:30 a.m. EST.”
“Gold is also under pressure from the technical side,” said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann. “It dropped below the 200-day moving average, which triggered technical follow-up selling.”
https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sinks-below-1800-to-2-month-low/
Gold price may get China, India physical demand boost as ETF spike fades
Reuters | February 4, 2021
“There is little doubt that buying into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were the major factor in gold’s strong 2020, with World Gold Council (WGC) data showing a massive 120% surge in inflows to 877.1 tonnes in 2020, up from 398.3 tonnes in 2019.”
“This isn’t too surprising given how gold’s position as a safe haven saw investors flock into ETFs as the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe, upending economies and leading to concerns about other asset classes such as stock markets.”
“The pandemic also ensured that interest rates across the world will remain extremely low for an extended period, a factor that traditionally supports gold.”
https://www.mining.com/web/gold-may-get-china-india-physical-demand-boost-as-etf-spike-fades/
Don Durrett – $50 Silver & $2,300 Gold Is Coming, But A Market Crash Will Happen Before
ILoveProsperity – Feb 6, 2021
Silver Supply Crisis: Impossible To Source Metal for ETFs, Tricks Are Being Played Warns Middelkoop
Stansberry Research – Feb 5, 2021 #VIDEO Interview
“Reddit-triggered buying led to a frenzy in silver, making for a significant event that lifted prices to eight-year highs. While the price has since come back down, many experts expect more craziness, predicting that the silver squeeze drama isn’t going anywhere. “If you look at the palladium market, it will tell you how this silver drama will play out; palladium was managed and manipulated for years,” best-selling author of the Big Reset Willem Middelkoop tells Daniela Cambone. “The physical demand became so large that it overwhelmed the paper shorts… and the palladium price went up fourfold.” He considers this a playbook for what will happen to silver, noting that, while central banks can solve many crises, “they can’t print more silver– just like they couldn’t print more palladium.”
Alasdair Macleod: The Next Market Crash Is Coming: Fiat Currencies Collapse | Gold & Silver
ILoveProsperity – Feb 5, 2021 #VIDEO Interview
“He believes the next market crash is coming, but it will be different, because it will include government currencies. He believes that loss of confidence in fiat currencies is coming, and this is why he thinks investing in Gold & Silver are so important right now. We discuss his personal viewpoints on precious metals and how they will play a role in a new financial system, if people truly do lose faith in fiat currencies.”
The Real Silver Squeeze Likely Still Ahead
Feb. 05, 2021 – Peter Krauth – Seeking Alpha
Hey Ex:
Thanks for posting the Middlecoop interview. I’m not familiar with him. He’s far more credible than some of the other voices which preach the same line, month after long month. You can probably fill in the names yourself. Many stories never change even though we know the tales of the ’90s isn’t the story of today.
From Jesse Felder today: Good Bloomberg article suggesting the next 90 days will see some answers: ttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-04/inflation-will-force-the-federal-reserve-to-rethink-monetary-policy?sref=qpbhckVU&mc_cid=83e80e9c18&m
Good article. Thanks for posting that SilverDollar. This passage stood out:
“That game is now over. Little noticed last week amid the copious commentary on the GameStop Corp. jollity was a data release showing the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation is going up. Over the past 12 months core personal consumption expenditure rose 1.5%, higher than the 1.3% expected. Admittedly this is still low, but it’s likely to go up a lot further. The Fed is monetizing much of the government deficit; the monster amount of money that it created is finding its way out of the banking system; there are severe supply constraints in both manufacturing and services; and Asia is on fire.”
“Rapidly rising inflation will eventually force the Fed to rein in its lax monetary policy. But it will move, by its own admission, very slowly; on my interpretation much too slowly. It’s a racing certainty that markets will be spooked much earlier than the central bank.”
“All stock-market bubbles go hand in hand with rapid credit growth and this latest one is no exception. Non-financial corporate debt has been on a tear these few years past, relative to gross domestic product. Part of the reason last year, of course, was the rapid fall in GDP, although the Fed also played its part by buying billions of dollars of corporate debt.”
“If investors are about to face a crisis, so too is the White House and the Fed. It wouldn’t take much movement from the Fed to upset the markets, hence its desire to move carefully. On the other hand, doing nothing is also problematic from a political perspective. Inflation is regressive: It hurts poor people far more than rich ones. That doesn’t look like a model of social justice.”
“Reasonable people can disagree, but I think we’ll find out how much of a hole the Fed has dug for itself, markets and the U.S. in the next three months.”
Hi SilverDollar. Yes, Willem Middlekoop is very active in the earlier stage Junior Miners, and is a well respected investor and economic pundit in the Precious Metals & Base Metals markets, but is more known in Europe. He runs the Commodity Discovery Fund which has about 80-100 companies in it at any one time, if memory serves. You’ll see them active in the Private Placements of many small Junior miners.
I just thought it was interesting the points he made about what actually happened in the short squeeze in the Palladium markets a few years back, and how that similar trend could still play out in the Silver markets over the next few years. He also had good points about global initiatives to find a replacement for the dollar as a reserve currency, and how it could be a basket of digital fiat currencies, that would also have Gold as a potential currency along side of those at part of that index. Interesting thoughts.
Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop 1:54 AM · Feb 7, 2021· Twitter
> Proof of Palladium Squeeze!
In my interview with @DanielaCambone ” I explained that ‘paper shorts’ were burned and squeezed, by a rush for physical Palladium in 2018. ”
Want proof?
“Look what happened next to the ‘concentrated shorts’ in Palladium. ”
“Palladium price went up 4x”
Gold may be weak but NSRPF is soaring. So glad I topped off my position last week at 1.75 as it is now 2.52. Hope Doc got on board as this train is heading to the Emerald City.
And ESKYF is soaring too!
Yes, agreed Bonzo – Novo Resources has been soaring the last few days.
Between Bob M’s new book laying out the bullish thesis for Novo, and the excitement in the market at they move towards production at Beaton’s Creek in their continued “Golden Runway” move higher, it has been a fun week.
_____________________________________________
(NVO) (NSRPF) Novo Resources On The Verge of WA Gold Production
Matt Birney – Business News (02/04/2021)
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Novo-on-the-verge-of-WA-gold-production
Here’s a blurb from Bob M’s new book about how massive Novo could become:
What Became of the Crow?
Inside the greatest gold discovery in history
By Robert Moriarty
“Every great gold discovery has a unique element that made it a reality. At Grasberg, miners solved “unbeatable terrain challenges”, accessing a vertical mountain peak to mine one of the world’s largest copper – gold deposits. For the Klondike Gold Rush, a prospector shook gold nuggets out of a streamside bush while building a fire to cook his food. At Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi, a legendary minefinder spent his last dollar drilling one last hole. In South Africa’s Witwatersrand, a simple prospector’s find belied the fact that, instead of a short life, a gigantic mineralized deposit would be tapped, giving up 40% of all the gold ever mined. But that was then… What if now, in a bone-dry portion of Australia, a mammoth gold deposit defying superlatives is on the cusp of being born? The elements? A rogue-thinking geologist, a cantankerous newsletter analyst and a financial heavyweight addicted to long-shot asymmetric bets looked at “the evidence” in a way no one else had done before. And proposed a new theory that – not unlike the Wits – a massive multiple layered, wildly-profitable goldfield lay before them that could be mined. For decades. In your hands is The Inside Story of the Greatest Gold Discovery in History!”
Yes, Bonzo, I do own NSRPF and my position in this company is in the green—do I wish I own more; absolutely. I’ve been purchasing on every pullback. Interestingly, if you look at the monthly chart, it is forming a beautiful inverse head/shoulders formation. I’ll continue to purchase more of this stock over time and if it breaks it’s upper BB, will add a 50% position.
Doc, glad to hear you got on the Novo train before it left the station. And our ESKYF is soaring too. And NULGF rose to 11 cents after falling to 9 cents last Monday. They should start drilling again next month and find an elephant of gold. Goliath and Timberline had a great week too in spite of gold weakness.
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (02/05/2021)
#TechnicalAnalysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Jobs Report Ripples Across Many Financial Sectors
Feb 5, 2021 – Gary Wagner #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #Gold
Metals Markets: Key Stocks Look Good
Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #Video
Ex, midas gold has gotten crushed and it has farther to move lower—any thoughts?
Hi Doc – Yes, agreed that Midas has had a significant stomping down, and the TSI and TRIX are looking oversold and like they could cross soon and head back up. However, I wouldn’t want to see that 55 day EMA cross down through the 233 day EMA in a death cross, or it may indicate lower for longer. It would be good to see Midas turn up and rally as soon as possible, to get that 55 day EMA to slow its downward slope. If not it may have more pain in store for the medium term.
With all the jobs lost they are worried about how many people will want to return to work. When the government hands out all these entitlements there is no incentive for many to return. Being on welfare is a strong enticement, as long as you can afford food and shelter and pick up the odd job in the underground economy. DT
About three years ago I watched a video where Chen Lin was talking to a large number of investors/speculators at a convention center, he asked the audience if they knew what was causing the price of Palladium to shoot so much higher. Not one person had an answer, to which he then replied it was a Palladium Squeeze caused by short selling. I was stunned that nobody could come up with an answer let alone a correct one. DT
Before that, the (previously) far more costly Platinum had been replaced by the (then) much cheaper Palladium for industrial uses, especially for the auto industry. Once retooled, going back to Platinum is almost a “Bridge Too Far”, setting the stage.
Platinum still looks poised to gain some ground on Palladium, but with both of them at current levels, the PGM stocks have been surging.
Check out this performance chart of the PGM stocks and their recent moves higher:
PTM.TO Platinum Group Metals, PGE.V Group Ten Metals, GENM.TO Generation Mining, GRDM.V Grid Metals, NAM.V, New Age Metals, NKORF Palladium One, JLP.L Jubilee Platinum, BULL.CA Canadian Palladium, CNC.V Canada Nickel, BTT.V Bitterroot Resources, NCP.TO Nickel Creek Platinum, NOT.V Noront Resources
(PLG) (PTM) Platinum Group Metals Ltd. Enters into At-The-Market Offering Sales Agreement
@newsfile on 5 Feb 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/platinum-group-metals-ltd-enters-into-at-the-market-5bc3e
Thanks CFS, I think I listened to 95% of the shows from its inception some 18-22 years ago for some 10 years. I always liked Frank Barbers perspective. I must say I think I haven’t heard his voice in 8-10 years. There just so much worthwhile now online compared to back then, so thanks for passing the excerpt on
Interesting that Frank sees what I talked about recently: the potential for stocks to hyperextend. I am still biased toward that outcome more than a final top happening anytime soon.
Like Marty, I don’t think I’ve heard Frank Barbara’s voice in close to 10 years.
I should have pointed out that I do expect stocks to correct soon regardless of the longer term which is why I recently stated that my bullish view is tentative. I have to see the character of the upcoming correction to get a better idea about the possibility of a shockingly higher stock market.
After Auryn:
Bitcoin is back over $40,000 here on Saturday afternoon.
Ethereum Over Bitcoin? The Price Is Headed to $10,000 Says Frank Holmes
Stansberry Research – Feb 3, 2021
“Ethereum hit all-time highs on Wednesday, breaking above $1,600 ahead of the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange next week. Our Daniela Cambone speaks with Frank Holmes, chairman of Hive Blockchain, the only crypto mining company producing both Ethereum and Bitcoin. Holmes discusses the rally ahead of the big CME futures launch on February 8th. He also reveals his $10,000 Ethereum forecast and why he thinks it’s headed higher. ”
Bitcoin – Consolidation Brings New Opportunities
Feb. 07, 2021 – Florian Grummes – Seeking Alpha
Novo finished the week above both its 30 week and 200 week MAs for the first time in 3 months and did so on great volume. It also pulled off its first weekly MACD buy signal since last May. The odds of a retest of either its December or January lows are very slim in my opinion.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSRPF&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p03549846690&a=627580757
It is bullish that the daily RSI(14) rocketed right to a new 15 month high and overbought reading even though it might point to a short term pullback beginning in the next several trading sessions (based on the weekly chart and my view of the whole sector, that pullback could be very short in duration).
Let’s see if it can hit fork resistance next week (at about 2.85 on Monday)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSRPF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p94480104350&a=659272907
It should be onward and upward from here for Novo, barring problems with the mill.
It could still be a 100 bagger if they are really sitting on Wits 2 and gold goes as high as I expect.
The following 11+ year XAU:GOLD chart shows just how young this big new bull market is. Hopefully nonsubscribers can view the whole thing. Look at those EMAs to get an idea where this market is heading in the years ahead (at the top, they will be splayed far apart and “in order” — the shorter term ones will be above the longer term ones)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=11&mn=9&dy=0&id=p61598368523&a=601086515
BRE-X was a scam and it went from 11 cents to $258 CDN. Where will the elevator stop on Novo, Interesting thought on mass psychology. DT
There is a massive difference in Bre-X and Novo though. Yes, there was madness of crowds in both speculative run ups, but Novo is actually going into production and getting very close to pouring Gold. In contrast, Bre-X didn’t have nearly the resources it claimed to have, was a complete scam, never made it into production, and is a black mark on the mining industry that took the last 2 decades to get over.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Novo around $4-$5 before PDAC in March. A lot of promotion and quality people behind this story, promotion makes winners big winners and Novo is getting the right stuff. DT
That would be quite a move but not a shocking one under the circumstances.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSRPF&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p33158467906&a=891692146
Hi Matt, quite awhile ago I bought a TR6C, drove it out west, and sold it a year later. I’m sure you are familiar with Triumph’s from the late 1960’s. I really enjoyed using that scrambler in the foothills of Alberta. DT
Hi DT, yes I am familiar with it but no expert on Triumphs. That’s a very light bike by today’s standards so I can imagine how fun it would be in the twisties.
I stick to the dirt these days but my last road bike was fun:
https://servoppf.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2012-Honda-CBR600RR-ABSg.jpg
Here’s footage from a Yamaha factory rider on my current bike:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6gzOz-dGkc&ab_channel=GoProMotorsports
Hi Matthew, you know that in life one must give his all to be successful. DT
I sold 50% of my small position into the close @ $2.50 US. Currently in 29%cash, as much as 41% cash after Monday’s bonanza run up. Totally sold out all my position in AUMN(30k shares)@ an average of $1.17
Good trading Marty, as per usual. I’m still holding my Novo for the longer term thesis, but was tempted to trim some profits on last weeks surge.
As for AUMN Golden Minerals that you mentioned, I also sold a chunk on Monday’s move but only at $1.13 (and had a cost basis of $.43), but then bought the shares back later that day in 2 tranches at $.92 and $.79. AUMN closed the week at $.87 so you were smart to sell it all for $1.17 Marty. I still like the company and believe it will be back way over $1 longer term (but may sell my position when it gets up to a $2 or $3 handle.).
Cheers!
When I stated, ” I wouldn’t be surprised to see Novo around $4-$5 before PDAC in March, I was referring to CDN money, Novo is currently trading at $3.22 CDN. DT
That’s not such a Loonie notion DT. (lol) 😉
DT:
$258 Canadian is a good minimum price.
One Bitcoin would probably buy 13000 shares of Novo, Novo has lots of room to run, David. LOL! DT
My Freegold Venture shares have been dropping enough that I now call them Freegold Airlines! LOL! DT
Freefall Ventures
Ha! Freegold Airlines. Good one DT. Freefall Ventures was pretty funny as well Matthew.
I actually watched from the sidelines that Freegold Ventures rocket ride higher in valuation in 2020 when Sprott got positioned, but felt it had gotten overdone (despite the legitimate re-rating they deserved on their 6 million ounces of Gold in the ground). As Freegold Ventures has pulled back substantially, I’ve added in 3 tranches and actually like it a lot for the next leg higher in the PM bull market.
I added to Freeloader Airlines last week. I assume they will put out a press release sometime this year and that Sprott still owns a bunch.
The chart actually looks great, guys. Considering the monster 5,500% advance off the March low, it has held up well. I bet it has bottomed and will do great next week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FVL.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10085360662
A possible path from here:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FVL.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p61818867303&a=891756258
Ha! Another good one David. I have added 3 tranches of Freeloader Airlines (FVL) on 12/29/20, 01/13/21, and 01/27/21, and am currently flying underwater and under the radar of most investors, but again I’m still bullish on it for the medium to longer term. They’ve found enough gold to get rerated higher with higher metals prices, and enough that one of the big boys will likely scoop them up in a takeover in the next 2 years.
As mentioned earlier in the week on one of the blogs, a strategy that has worked well for many years for me, is positioning in the flavors of day of yesteryear, after the initial pop-n-drop, and I like to position when the fickle retail mobs leave and go on to the next hot narrative. I had mentioned the currently Wallbridge is in a similar position where they have the goods, but have been discarded by the hot money that rushed in during years past. I actually started positioning in WM during the March pandemic crash, then lightened up some on that recovery ascent, but lately have been adding more Wallbridge as it has really pulled back nicely from last year’s peak. They have the same number of ounces in the ground as last year, more drills turning, a better land package, and so the valuation now is much more attractive that it was last summer.
It was the same thing with Novo, that was discussed here up above. It got way ahead of itself in years past, when investors were clamoring to pile on top of one another to push it higher and higher, when there wasn’t as much quantified, wasn’t a plan on how to use the ore-sorting to process the conglomerate, and when they didn’t yet have the mill from their acquisition of Millennium . Many investors got impatient with waiting, doubt crept in, some left in a blaze of glory, and as the share price continued to pull back it looked more an more attractive. I started my first Novo nibble last Sept 2nd, when they made it clear they were going into production at Beaton’s Creek, because I’d been waiting for 4 year to see them announce that. Then I added a larger tranche on 12/11/2020, and just held so they could put their plan in motion. Now the position is up over 20% and climbing, but buying when the sentiment had soured.
There are lots of stocks like this that get way ahead of themselves, and people love them then during that euphoria stage, but then if the company runs into a few stalls, and the speculative hot air comes out, and the shares put in a hefty correction; then many investors leave in a huff and a puff mad at management or declaring it a loser. Ironically, they are rarely mad at themselves for buying the top into the froth as the greater fools and actual losers.
One of the best places to pick up value is to wait for companies that did meaningful work to go through their inevitable rough patches, and accumulate when they are unloved, and then turn around and sell them when they get rerated higher and become dear.
Good FVL charts Matthew. Yeah, that looks like a reasonable path forward.
I wonder if we’ll ever hear the Friday wrap again with Eric & Hemke. It was quite an exciting 1/2 hour from Mar-Sept last year.
Marty, I wouldn’t be surprised if Eric returns next Friday.
Eric and Craig.
I keep hearing rumors that ES’s wife may be ill. I hope that is not the case. But, in the past ES has checked in from outback Canada fishing holes, Montenegro restaurant and near the Antartica. It must be serious. I hope it is not.
Agreed David. I hope everything is OK with Eric and his wife, and wishing them well.
I agree that it would be nice to hear from Eric again on one on the Friday wraps over at Sprott Money, but family comes first. I’m sure he’s enjoyed Silver being back in discussion in the mainstream financial investing outlets.
Looking at the price of Bitcoin, I am surprised that PM price suppression is even worth thinking about as a threat to fiat currency. It appears PMs are the least of their problems.
Yes, Bitcoin is absorbing a percentage of capital that wants to flee the fiat money system, and while it is a much smaller market at a $750 Billion market cap, compared to Gold’s $10 Trillion market cap, it is still growing much more on a percentage basis of adoption. Of course, as a result, it is more likely to get the attention of regulators and this poses more of a risk to it until that area has been resolved.
Bitcoin & The Future of Crypto Regulation (w/ Raoul Pal & Caitlin Long)
Real Vision Finance – Jan 27, 2021
Monday’s sector-wide price spike caused SLV:GLD to reach its highest level since mid 2014 but it still put in its highest close in 4.5 years on Friday (it is a bullish sign for the whole sector when silver outperforms gold):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p06627144929&a=616620009
Charles, I was off by only 2 cents (but also 2 weeks) with this:
On November 30, 2020 at 8:52 pm,
Matthew says:
Charles, I think you caught the low for NSRPF. Notice that the really big gap and plunge happened after breaking and closing below fork support.
Matthew, I am hoping that NULGF’s chart will look even better when they find the elephant Quinton thinks is on their property in the Cortez trend.
@aghead re: REZZF – http://www.kereport.com/2021/02/04/commodity-considerations-for-this-push-toward-electrification-and-green-initiative/
On February 6, 2021 at 3:55 pm,
BDC says:
Today I had time to look deeper and found some things:
Because the last “Full Saturation (Low)” was 29 January, Thursday’s high was a perfect Chapman Wave ‘F’ top. Closer inspection also showed that it was really at MaxSat-6. These two aspects were more than enough to qualify as a top. Friday’s negative action was verification.
BDC, thank you for following up. The call your “Saturation Timing and Trade System” made last week was spot on. I look forward to seeing u continue to finetune it. I hope you will continue offering your analysis in various stock here on KER.
What is the diff between ‘qualified’ and ‘full’ saturation?
Please explain mor in depth your suggestions below with the miners. (“earliest qualified…”
I’m still developing a lexicon and learning this method.
As today’s action shows, I should have included this:
“More upside is not precluded. Continued Saturation is possible
with additional buying, especially from new sources (funds?).”
I did not think of including it, though had used this previously:
“More downside is not precluded.
Continued Saturation is possible,
with additional shorting/selling.”
Obviously for the downside. I do apologize for the misstep.
If sold, hopefully you bought back in at the gap mentioned.
It was a significant pull back, but markets are hot now.
This is a good test case. I will follow up tonight.
Earliest Qualified Saturation
Gold and Silver Miners
If Down: Monday
If Up: Wednesday/Thursday
Uranium Miners
If Up: Monday (may have topped Friday)
If Down: Thursday/Friday
Gold: GDX-GDXJ-XAU-HUI-GDM
Silver: SIL-SILJ
Uranium: URA-URNM
So… Are you currently neutral, neutral-bullish, bullish-neutral or outright bullish? I don’t think you’re bearish so I left that choice off.
Thanks for asking. The overall bias for Gold is up. The long term uptrend ‘C’ point is now the August 2018 low. Its 2020 high has locked this in.
For swing trading, I become bullish when STATS indicates a Qualified Saturated Low, and bearish if a High (long JDST). The “Saturation Timing and Trade System” is the result of developing a personal TA strategy over the past few years.
Thanks. I am now outright bullish the miners short and intermediate term and remain outright bullish long term. Monday will probably finish up significantly but flat or down slightly would be ok too. I’d keep that to myself if I were superstitious.
(MUX) McEwen Mining raises capital for Fox Complex growth funding
Feb. 05, 2021
“The timing of this offering was critical for two reasons: 1. It completes the funding required to bring the Froome deposit into production later this year. Froome is our production bridge to the future growth of the Fox Complex, where we see potential for higher gold production, lower cost per ounce and a longer mine life; and 2. It will strengthen our balance sheet and working capital position, which will help address our going concern note and debt covenants.” commented Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner.
(MUX) McEwen Mining: More Share Dilution To Start The Year
Feb. 06, 2021 – T.D. – Seeking Alpha
“There’s a saying that the only three certainties in life are death, taxes, and change, but as of 2021, we could revise this to “death, taxes, change, and more dilution from McEwen Mining.” This is because the company has now completed more capital raises than most pre-revenue gold juniors in the past 18 months, with another financing announced this week at near all-time lows for the stock.”
“The most recent capital raise is for 30 million shares at a price of US$1.05, which is on top of two flow-through financings completed in the past two months for 20.3~ million shares. This should push McEwen’s share count to above 450 million shares, translating to over 50% share dilution since Q4 2016 despite much higher metals prices.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404105-mcewen-mining-share-dilution-to-start-year
(MUX) McEwen Mining: A Warm Welcome & 2021 Production Guidance
@nasdaq on 2 Feb 2021
“We are forecasting our 2021 gold equivalent production to be in the range of 141,000 to 160,400 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) using a gold:silver ratio of 75:1. These production levels represent a 21% to 38% improvement over 2020.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/mcewen-mining-a-warm-welcome-2021-production-guidance
(SVM) Silvercorp Metals Reports Net Income of $8.4 Million, $0.05 Per Share, and Cash Flow from Operations of $23.9 Million for Q3 Fiscal 2021
Feb 4, 2021
(SVM) Silvercorp Subsidiary Acquires the La Yesca Silver Project, Nayarit State, Mexico
@nasdaq on 2 Feb 2021
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silvercorp-subsidiary-acquires-the-la-yesca-silver
(PRG) (PREIF) Precipitate Gold Commences Drilling at the Copey Hill Gold Zone within the Ponton Project, Dominican Republic
Feb 4, 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/precipitate-commences-drilling-at-the-copey-hill-gold
Not a surprise…
(NAK) (NDM) Northern Dynasty: Pebble Partnership Served with Grand Jury Subpoena in Alaska
@accesswire on 5 Feb 2021
“the Pebble Limited Partnership and Tom Collier, the former Chief Executive Officer of the Pebble Partnership, have each been served with a subpoena issued by the United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Alaska to produce documents in connection with a grand jury investigation apparently involving previously disclosed recordings of private conversations regarding the Pebble Project.”
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/northern-dynasty-pebble-partnership-served-with-grand
(ESK)(ESKYF) Eskay Agrees to Acquire 19.5% of Garibaldi Resources Corp from The Sprott Foundation
@accesswire on 5 Feb 2021
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/eskay-agrees-to-acquire-195-of-garibaldi-resources
Ex, I do expect in the future that Pebble will be developed. They will overcome the environmental issues and the size and scope of the project is just too mind boggling huge to be ignored. Technology again is the key. DT
Anything is possible DT, but Pebble has been working on going into production for over 12 years now, and has had a series of pumps, disinformation about their permits, and weird cronyism trying to get it approved, and it has been denied a few times now. I thought they had a better chance of getting it through with the Trump administration, but I’m not so sure if the Biden administration is going to say yes.
Current Silver Market Could Blow Away Hunt Brothers Spike Says Expert (Lobbo Tigre)
Stansberry Research – Feb 2, 2021 #VIDEO Interview
“The perfect storm for silver is brewing. If there is ongoing economic trouble and copper miners scale back, since most silver comes from copper, we could see all this demand coupled with supply constraints. And if this happens, we would blow away the Hunt Brothers spike, even in inflation adjusted terms,” the Independent Speculator founder tells Daniela Cambone.
Correction to spelling of name: Lobo Tiggre
I still remember the pen name: Louis James.
Lobo Tiggre: Reddit Silver Surge May be Brief, Focus on Fundamentals
Investing News Network – Feb 1, 2021
0:00 – Intro
0:20 – Silver and WallStreetBets – how it started
2:13 – What could a silver squeeze look like?
6:11 – Why WallStreetBets turned on silver
10:24 – Lobo’s bottom line on silver right now
14:25 – The scramble for physical silver
17:14 – Implications of trading app restrictions
20:44 – Impact of WallStreetBets for hedge funds
22:49 – Silver fundamentals have never looked better
26:27 – Outro
Billionaire Pierre Lassonde on #SilverSqueeze , Gold Mining Business & Advice for Speculators
MiningStockEducation – Feb 3, 2021
“Mining Billionaire Pierre Lassonde discusses the #SilverSqueeze , gold mining business and offers key advice for speculators. Pierre comments on the silver price in historical perspective and where it might be headed. He shares his number one advice for executives of gold producers as well as what type of mining investment he likes now outside the precious metals. Pierre talks about the current-day gold royalty sector and what is necessary for a start-up royalty company to succeed. He discusses a couple key traits mining speculators must have in order to succeed. ”
1:45 #SilverSqueeze commentary
3:47 Where is the silver price headed?
5:33 Dow-Gold ratio 1:1
6:47 Type of new gold royalty company you’d invest in today?
8:28 Thoughts on prospect-generative approach to royalty generation?
9:29 Consolidation needed in the gold royalty space?
10:18 Do the best royalty opportunities reside in the base metal space?
12:04 Number one advice for executives of gold producers
13:22 Commentary on gold producer at-the-market mergers
15:03 What gold price do you use to analyze a development project?
15:50 “Copper is the metal of the future”
17:04 Becoming a successful mining speculator
20:14 Final advice
I am always up for listening to a great interview, this is one of them. Pierre Lassonde knows how to get a point across in a simple succinct fashion, that is the essence of communication. DT
Hey Ex, keep those mining video’s coming! DT
Roger Roger. Will do DT. Yes, agreed that Pierre’s simple succinct fashion of communication is easy to listen to. Bill Powers does a great job with interviews as well.
AGreat video… What’s not to like about about Pierre Lassonde.Thanks Ex,,,
Ditto Ann. Pierre is a class act, and I’ll always make time to listen if he is sharing his wisdom and insights on the mining sector. Cheers!
At about 10 minutes they go into greater depth about Silver.
Per Larry Pesavento, who was a Silver trader back then, its real 1980 high was about $37 rather than $50 as generally reported.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9F06fVhVPg
He then confirms that the recent $50 high was accurate, having been exchange verified.
Here’s ceo.ca’s dr.jimjones colonizing stockhouse with his analysis of cassiar gold, a jr. not much profiled here…so i’m just paying it forward here as i do like the good dr’s work.
trades at sub $15 a mineable oz, cashed up, 1.5 millon ozs
Hi, please review my research. World class team, cashed up for 15000-20000 meter of drilling, read the reports, it’s amazing. Best Doc Jones
https://ceo.ca/@drjimjones/heading-to-2-million-ozs-at-taurus-doc-jones-cassiar-gold-update
If you go to ceo.ca, under my profile you’ll find other research reports and the portfolio holdings
Good post blazesb. I like Dr. Jones research into junior miners, and his other company reports were solid as well. If he has something to point out, over at ceo.ca, then it gets my attention.
Speaking of good reports, Peter did a good job on this one:
____________________________________________________________________
(WRN) Western Copper And Gold: Extremely Cheap Copper And Gold
Feb. 07, 2021 – Peter Arendas – Seeking Alpha
“The Casino deposit contains measured, indicated, and inferred resources of 45.148 million toz of gold equivalent (using the current metals prices).”
“The value of contained metals is $82 billion, while the enterprise value of Western Copper and Gold is $140 million.”
“The market attributes value of only $3.1 to 1 toz of gold equivalent.”
“The PEA (Q2) and updated feasibility study (probably late 2021/early 2022) should be the main near-term catalysts.”
That Jeff dude is delusional. Wth is he even talking about? Trump being a Russian asset? That is DNC rethoric and being proven false over and over again.
But the worse is his claim of no manipulation. Cory, why didn’t you ask him about the smash downs, where they dump a 1/2 years production in 3 minutes, always occurring like a clockwork when there is no liquidity, only to bring the price down?
Why didn’t you ask him about all the fines the big banks have paid due to manipulation? Proven in court of law!
There are som many evident facts and proofs concerning fraud and to say there is no manipulation just goes to show that you are either a shill or a moron. Either way it’s bad and disqualifies you as a market commenter. This guy is a joke and a fraud. Please do not bring him here again. He is laughable at best.
SilverChartist Weekly Report – (02/07/2021) #Silver #Gold #Uranium #TechnicalAnalysis
Thanks to Cory, Big Al, and all the contributors on the KE Report for another great week of daily editorials and another great weekend show. Ever Upward!