Ed Moya - Senior Market Analyst at OANDA – Tue 6 Apr, 2021

Everything’s moving higher today outside of the USD, the strongest breadth in over a decade in the S&P

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins me for a comprehensive recap on the market moves today. Across the board we are seeing green, ranging from the broad averages, bonds, precious metals, and base metals. It’s only the USD that is down today. We discuss all these markets and sectors with a focus on future trends and the breadth data that shows 95% of stocks in the S&P that are over their 200 day moving averages.

Click here to visit the OANDA website to read over Ed’s daily note.


Comments:
  1. On April 6, 2021 at 11:36 am,
    Danny hon says:

    Thanks,, will enjoy this wonderful session,keep up the good work

  2. On April 6, 2021 at 11:50 am,
    cfs says:

    I don’t know for sure because of time lags that occur in economics, but I believe we are seeing the beginning of high inflation.

    The senile pretender promissed this, and we will get it.

    The real question is:
    As the dollar collapses because of the currency printing, will high inflation turn into hyperinflation as the purchasing power of the dollar sinks slowly into oblivion ?

  3. On April 6, 2021 at 12:04 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Today had been a somewhat bullish day overall in many sectors from the general markets, to defensive plays like bonds and utilities, and even the beleaguered Gold and Silver and related miners have continued to bounce. It is also interesting that Dollar that was up over 93.70 a week or so back has started weakening a bit back down below the mid 92’s.

    My personal trading portfolio has been clawing back higher and higher again since mid March in a number of sectors, from the potential double bottom in PM stocks, the Uranium stocks are on the move higher again, the Base Metals stocks have perked back up again, Energy Metals & Battery-related stocks & Clean Energy are picking back up, some of the Cannabis stocks have halted the severity of their downturn and are showing green shoots, and the Cryptos are back to running higher again (Ethereum is up over $2,000 now).

    It still remains to be seen if these moves higher we’ve seen the last few weeks are all just relief rallies in these sectors, preceding the 2nd half of Q1, where most of these sectors pulled back down from loftier levels. As for the PMs, it also remains to be seen if the double-bottom will hold, or it if is just the “bump” and a counter-trend rally before we see more pressure downwards in that larger declining terminating wedge.

    • On April 6, 2021 at 12:08 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Mentioned on this site last evening that I was going to purchase some Fosterville South and after purchasing it the stock moved up nicely—at times I feel like Eric Sprott.

      • On April 6, 2021 at 1:39 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes, Doc, I saw you post that yesterday and had responded that Fosterville South looked like good value after their pullback, and they have a solid team (ex-K92 Mining guys), along with Sprott & Ross Beaty being involved, but most importantly, their land package at Lauriston is adjacent to Kirkland Lake’s Fosterville Mine (one of the most economical mines on the planet), and they also have land and a target called Moormbool, near Mandalay’s Costerfield mine, and near where Newmont is exploring. In addition they have some land, Timor & Avoca, over where Chalice Gold is exploring. Lastly, Fosterville South has some quite prospective land packages along the Wahalla gold belt to be drilled at their Gold Mountain and Enoch’s point targets.

        Fosterville South is cashed up and ready to drill at multiple targets, so I’m eagerly awaiting how this year’s drill program is going.

        Now, as for moved the share price today, I’m sure you helped the cause Doc, but maybe this news release had a little something to do with it as well. 😉

        _______________________________________

        Fosterville South Secures Access Agreement to Drill High Grade Target at Keath’s Reward, Lauriston Project

        @newswire on 6 Apr 2021

        “The Keath’s Reward target joins multiple other areas within the Lauriston Project with land access agreements now in place and drill targets defined based on field work and historic data compilation.”

        “Lauriston is a large 600 sq km property which is immediately south of and contiguous with Kirkland Lake Gold’s Fosterville Mine tenements.”

        “With the landowner agreement in place to access Keath’s Reward and a drill program designed, the necessary drill permit is now being sought by Fosterville South to commence drilling in the coming weeks.”

        https://ceo.ca/@newswire/fosterville-south-secures-access-agreement-to-drill

    • On April 6, 2021 at 12:13 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Ex, what do you think of pure gold here since it was taken to the shed and spanked.

      • On April 6, 2021 at 12:35 pm,
        bonzo says:

        Doc, you said I should’ve waited a day to buy more NSRPF, so I followed your advice and bought 7 times more today than I bought yesterday. I know you want to buy it below 2 but I think 2.25 might hold. And it won’t matter when it goes to 40.

      • On April 6, 2021 at 1:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Doc, I love it when a company with a good project that was getting pricey, gets taken to the shed and spanked hard, driving the valuation back down. I had opined on this recently here, and mentioned I had sold about 2/3 of my position before they got to “first pour” at a nice profit; because normally that is where the investors that were riding up their exploration and development story will exit the Lassonde Curve, and go redeploy into other explorers and developers. In addition, almost every single mine I’ve seen start up, with the exception of Atlantic Gold, have had growing pains and challenges for the first 6 months of getting a new mine up and running, and that is what is playing out now with Pure Gold. It is par for the course. As long as they don’t have the continued problems like what McEwen Mining or Americas Gold & Silver has had at their mines starting up then Pure Gold will do just fine in the longer term, and I’m considering adding my position back over the next month or two, especially if we see another leg down in the PMs like many are expecting.

        All the gold they found is still there in the ground, the mine is built and the company is adjusting several processes on both the mining strategy and milling process to optimize production, and all the exploration potential is still there exactly the same as when the share-price and valuation was 55%+ higher. If things drop another 10%-15% then I’ll likely start adding to my Pure Gold position, for longer term appreciation, once the mine is running closer to spec.

        This article sums up the current speed bumps well, and none of it looks as bad as short term investors are reacting, and these kinds of emotional over-reactions create inefficient markets temporarily, so I’ll be looking to pounce on any silly sell-downs that show up in the next few weeks.
        ______________________________________

        Pure Gold Ramps Up Mill, Fine Tunes Underground Ops

        By: Magda Gardner, Canadian Mining Journal – April 1, 2021

        https://www.northernminer.com/news/pure-gold-ramps-up-mill-fine-tunes-underground-ops/1003829844/?ctname%3dPure+Gold+ramps+up+mill%2c+fine+tunes+underground+ops

      • On April 6, 2021 at 3:31 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        Must be a bad plan…..too many of us are thinking the same thing. Lol……between pure gold and roxgold im really feeling good about adding for some more gold producers……..still have orezone to consider for one that’s building a mine

    • On April 6, 2021 at 1:05 pm,
      Glenfidish says:

      Ex,

      I will give credit to a post when I see it and it’s non bias! You are absolutely 100% correct in all aspects but even more importantly your tone and language is one of realistic approach and for many investors this is wise.

      Many of us including you are seasoned and know the game and we also have time to get out of positions if needed or if caught in a position can wait it out. The old have patience is virtue.

      From a current position I was asked if I’m long by Matthew or how much percentage am I long. I don’t look at investing in that manner. I’m always adding selling or ready to do absolutely nothing. There is no right or wrong answer but if one really wanted to know my portfolio they would pay attention to what I have said over a million times.

      My long lost ions are intact.. Roughly 80% of my portfolio..

      My intermediate positions are trapped lol roughly 10% I can wait this out as I know it will turn out to be very profitable regardless

      The other 10% give or take and let’s keep in my if I have ability to raise more cash if this thing is headed we’re me and doc think. You bet I would..

      But the other 10% I mentioned I would use in tranches but clearly said maybe a month ago I’m not buying anything until if we do head lower.

      I used 3% of that in my first time short position and made a handsome amount. I closed that short clearly said it. I will not go short again as I mentioned the volatility to high regardless if I think it’s going lower ex as some might call me out and say well put your money we’re your mouth is lol, you and many others know I don’t say trade and not my speciality. So I would rather wait if it did it wouldn’t hurt me one bit.

      There you have it.

      Ex again much praise

      Glen

      • On April 6, 2021 at 1:13 pm,
        b says:

        Long and predicting a tanking?

        • On April 6, 2021 at 2:28 pm,
          Glenfidish says:

          I’m not sure what your question is b?

      • On April 6, 2021 at 2:29 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Glen, the current action warrants a bullish bias. A “realistic approach” makes that fact very clear.
        Glad I bought more IPT in the .60s and .70s…
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02684651998&a=642611606

      • On April 6, 2021 at 2:29 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Glen. I appreciate the kind words. Good comments on how you are approaching your portfolio management, and it is different for everybody, as we all have different unique situations, risk tolerance levels, and approaches to investing.
        There is no “one-size-fits-all” approach to this space, and as you stated, there are no wrong or right approaches.

        For example, some folks have more capital funds available for trading, some are living on fixed incomes or retired, whereas others generated good money from jobs/businesses/or side hustles that they can keep actively investing or trading.
        Some folks like to actively trade each day in the markets, whereas others are just dollar cost averaging into positions over time, and still others are value investors looking for good places to accumulate wisely for longer term growth. Some investors are more passive only using ETFs, while some with higher risk tolerance levels will do more research on the sector and then invest in the individual mining stocks. Many investors don’t touch the ETFs or mining stocks, and are merely stacking the metals themselves. Some investors have been doing this for decades since Gold was unpegged in the early 1970s by Nixon, and some investors may have just found this sector in the last few months during all the Silver Squeeze hype.

        There are also different approaches to investing and they all have different pros/cons associated with them. Some traders use technical analysis to look for good entries and exits, while others look at fundamental news flow and catalysts to determine where they want to invest their capital. Some traders like hedges, like using put options or inverse ETFs to short sectors when they feel there is a correction looming, where as other investors will sell out of stocks or sectors if they feel a corrective move is still in front of them. Some investors don’t do anything and just hold stead during corrective moves, as they aren’t comfortable selling and repurchasing as lower prices, or shorting to gain profits on a down trend, and so there are many ways to approach things. There are also different tax implication of selling and repurchasing (short-term versus long-term tax status), and while one set of investors will see the value in making far more profits and paying more in taxes as a result of short-term holds, other investors only do longer term buy and hold strategies to keep to the lower tax bracket. There are some investors trading to generate income in the short term, some investors doing swing trading for good returns over the medium term, and some investors that are longer term investors to the point where they may never sell positions and just will these to their families.

        There are, however, logical considerations to consider on major uptrends or downtrends, and it is fair to ask what someone’s individual approach is, if they are commenting on what others should do. If someone is banging the drum on an impending bullish uptrend, then they should be buying. If someone is conversely banging the drum on an impending correction or crash, then they should be selling or shorting. Of course it depends on the intensity and duration of the expected uptrend or downtrend. If it is a several week uptrend or downtrend, then only the most nimble and active traders should care. If it is a several month uptrend or downtrend, then that is plenty of time for semi-active investors to get positions for a move higher or take evasive action for a move lower. If it is several years of uptrend or downtrend projected, then that is a hard buy or hard sell type of scenario. It also depends on the intensity or severity of the move up or down expected. If it is only going to be a 10% – 15%% move higher, then holding through that period makes sense. However, if someone expects a 20%-60%+ advance or retreat in pricing, then it is silly to hold through that and better to take appropriate action to position or liquidate positions accordingly.

        Personally, I don’t like the idea of telling others what they should personally, because there is nobody that gets it right all the time, and everyone should make their own decisions and decide what investing style and approach they want to take, based on their mindset, time horizon, and goals. Sometimes the right thing to do for short-duration investors, is the wrong thing to do for longer term value investors, and so forth. People are swimming in treacherous waters when they start telling people to buy or not to buy, or sell or not to sell. It has always been my policy to discuss what I’m doing with my capital, and occasionally agree or disagree with others that state their opinions on buying or selling asset, usually backed up with why I hold a particular opinion. That is all any of us can have opinions…. as none of us has a crystal ball telling us the future.

        There are no right or wrong approaches, and each investing style or methodology has it’s own strengths and weaknesses. As always, good luck to everyone here at the KER with their investing, whatever methodology they use.

        • On April 6, 2021 at 2:53 pm,
          Holy Grail says:

          Excelsior, good advice, excellent commentary and everyone has their own risk tolerance. Sometimes it’s better to do nothing. As always, Health Is Wealth. Also, The True Champion understands where the true finish line is. Most never find it.

          • On April 6, 2021 at 6:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Holy Grail. Agreed that the true Wealth is health, knowledge, a spiritual connection, family/friends/fellowship, and emotional well being. After that, it is also nice to build financial wealth, as it compliments the other aspects nicely in a state of well-rounded prosperity.

          • On April 6, 2021 at 7:23 pm,
            Holy Grail says:

            Excelsior, completely agree although when you have your youth especially there’s no comparison. Could have lots of wealth and if you’re blessed with a lot of great attributes being very young looks etc you can’t compare. Energy and vitality can’t replace it and you can’t buy your health. People work themselves into the grave see it all the time. They look terrible. Moderation and staying fit. Thanks for your message and these are just additional thoughts. Grow old gracefully too.

    • On April 6, 2021 at 3:35 pm,
      Wolfster says:

      Yeah I wanted to get some nexgen before uranium got moving again but might have waited too long in the short term. I like that the price for uranium is in the $30’s again but don’t expect it to run much further in the near term so might get a second chance at nexgen before the real liftoff happens

      • On April 6, 2021 at 5:51 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes, NexGen is the premier Uranium explorer/developer in the Athabasca, or the planet for that matter, with the highest grade and most economical undeveloped uranium deposit on the market. Whatever happens in the Uranium prices shorter term, it is a longer term beast of a Tier 1 deposit, and will be able to supply a huge chunk of future U308 supply. It is larger than both Cigar Lake and McArthur River, and won’t have all the water challenges that Cameco has had working underground at those. I’ve been waiting for any weakness to add more, but already have a nice position in it. I sold some in Jan & early Feb, but started adding some back in late Feb.

        Maybe the Uranium stocks will have one more decent pullback to load up on some of the quality names, but based on the much larger volumes some of the main companies have seen in the first quarter, I agree with Justin Huhn, that this is bigger institutional money getting positioned for the long game, and the days of cheap prices in many of these shares may be limited.

  4. On April 6, 2021 at 12:46 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Bonzo, if you can guarantee it’s going to 40, I will post haste refinance my house and leverage all my other properties along with selling my wife, children, and grandchildren to raise more funds to dump into NSRPF.

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