Weekend Show – Sat 24 Apr, 2021

Fund Managers discuss the markets and metals

Full Weekend Show

On this weekend’s show I spend the full hour with Fund Managers Adrian Day and Dana Lyons. We start with precious metals then move to the US equity markets.

Please let me know your thoughts on any of the Editorials from the week and on the companies I’ve interviewed. I really value all of your thoughts and questions. My email is Fleck@kereport.com.

Upcoming Webinar – April 28th @ 11pm PDT (2pm EDT) – Royalty Roundtable featuring some of the top mid-tier royalty companies in the sector. We will focus on investing in the royalty sector. If you have any royalty investments or are curious about what to look for in royalty companies you will want to sing up and tune in. It’s free and we will be taking your questions.

Click here to sign up!

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Extended Segments – Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management and manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, kicks off the show with an in depth look at the precious metals sector. We discuss the action in gold, health of the miners, and when M&A will pick up.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Dana Lyons is up next with a focus on the US Equity Markets. After some weakness to start the week the markets bounced back to end strongly. Dana shares what his models are telling him and where he sees the most opportunity.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Adrian Day
Dana Lyons
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Comments:
  1. On April 24, 2021 at 3:45 am,
    Thomas says:

    Kory, thanks for all your work – A BIG SPECIAL THANKS FOR ALL ROYALTY INTERVIEWS

    • On April 24, 2021 at 12:02 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed. Thanks Cory for all the great interviews lately with the Royalty companies. I’ve enjoyed listening to the interviews with Metalla, Nova, Elemental, Vox, Nomad, Electric, and hopefully more to come. I’m also really interested to see how the conversation goes on the upcoming Royalty Roundtable next week.

      Ever Upward!

      • On April 25, 2021 at 5:33 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Exploring the Strengths & Weaknesses To Investing In Royalty & Streaming Companies

        by: Shad @ Excelsior Prosperity

        > Strengths:

        – Streams allow for a purchase of commodity at a fixed price (providing leverage to rising metals prices)
        – Royalties are either Gross Revenue Royalties or Net Smelter Royalties and are essentially the cream off the top, without taking all the other mining/operational risks
        – Diversified basket of royalty & streaming assets (often dozens to hundreds of assets in a portfolio), so there is not a single or even 2-3 asset risk, like with individual miners
        – Diversified across multiple jurisdictions, reducing risks of being over concentrated in one jurisdiction (Ely Gold is an exception in that they are focused on just Nevada, but it’s a Tier 1 jurisdiction)
        – Partner companies assume the lion’s share of the risks to mining, employees, community relations, environmental, and operational and do all the capital raises and dilutive financings
        – As larger miners takeover smaller miners, this can lead to stronger operations partners and better investments into a project(s), at no extra cost to the royalty & streaming company
        – Small personnel in royalty & streaming companies compared to traditional mining companies, that in contrast have hundreds or even thousands of employees in comparison
        – Enterprise Value per employee is much higher than with individual miners, or in comparison to most industries for that matter
        – Price/Earnings (PE) ratio is much higher for royalty and streaming companies, with senior royalty companies in the 30-150 PE range, compared to individual miners with senior producers in the 10-30 PE range
        – Margins are not impacted as dramatically as individual miners in a falling metals price environment
        – Ability to grow a pipeline of incoming revenue incrementally, with leverage to resource upgrades from operational partners at minimized risks
        – More likely to pay a regular dividend to investors, as it is easier to predict incoming cash flows

        > Weaknesses:

        – Not as much leverage on a single asset revaluation, as there is with an individual miner, so there is less upside torque in a re-rating scenario. In a bull market, many individual miners will out-perform the more diversified royalty companies in a substantial way
        – Margins are not impacted as dramatically in a positive way on a percentage basis, as individual miners will experience in a rising metals price environment
        – Royalty and streaming companies are still exposed to risks from their operational partners if those producers, developers, or explorers encounter issues with their projects, which impact either the timelines, operational production metrics, environmental/permitting approvals or challenges, community relation challenges, or financial duress of a partner mining company
        – Risk of longer term mine life calculations not panning out as initially projected, so there is the risk of overpaying for a stream or royalty
        – Leaning too heavily on price to NAV calculations when acquiring assets (where the Net Asset Value may not pan out as projected)

  2. On April 24, 2021 at 3:47 am,
    Thomas says:

    Lithium is heating up – Orocobre merges with Galaxy Resources to create a new Senior

    https://www.orocobre.com/wp/?mdocs-file=7805

    • On April 24, 2021 at 7:03 am,
      Thomas says:

      Good analysis. I never liked neither Orocobe nor Galaxy because of the same reasons
      – marginal project (Galaxy)
      – poorly executed project (Orocobe)

      • On April 24, 2021 at 11:57 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thoughts On The Merger of Orocobre Ltd & Galaxy Resources

        I’ve been following the Lithium sector for over a decade, and have invested in most of the companies that became the true winners from exploration to development to the ultimate proof in the pudding of becoming producers.

        Both Orocobre and Galaxy are 2 of the clear winners and leaders in the Jr production front over the last decade, so I’m no sure how anyone could say they are marginal or poorly executed. (?)

        Back in 2010-2012 it became clear that Talison (Greenbushes) was going to make it into production as the first Junior producer outside of the “big 3”. The Big 3 at that time were Albemarle, FMC (now Livent), and SQM. We were repeatedly told that no other companies would ever be needed and that it was a monopoly that they alone would own for decades into the future. Of course, those comments from commodities commentators back then (and even through present) were all complete rubbish, and I said so back then, and it is crystal clear now.

        I was positioned back then in Talison as investor, because it was clear they were onto a world class asset, and mentioned their path forward to likely production beforehand. Many scoffed at the idea, which is typical of those that don’t understand a subject, but love to have flippant opinions on it anyway. Obviously, Talison ended up being a great success story as the first Junior Lithium Producer, before they then got acquired by Chinese consortium Tianqui (who outbid Rockwood).

        Tianqui then became a new force of nature in the Lithium space after that, so pundits so sure we’d only need 3 companies, had to revise that up to 4 companies… now the Big 4. Where many saw that takeover of Talison as the conclusion of the permanent lineup of producers, the truth is that things were only just getting started in the Lithium space. The doubters and bashers have been wrong the whole way along.

        I had also been focused in 2011 and 2012 on Galaxy Resources, who at the time built a world-class battery plant, but had an unfortunate employee death and had to shut down operations right as they were getting it ramped up due to safety inspections. This clearly hurt their economics as they were then way behind schedule, but they proved their plant was a success by processing the Talison Greenbushes ore and creating battery grade lithium out of it. Eventually Talison/Tianqui purchased that plant from them, which made sense.

        Galaxy Resources took that money from the plant and decided to focus more on the large brine exploration asset (Sal de Vida) they had acquired from Lithium One, as well as moving their smaller hardrock project (Mt Cattlin) into development and towards production. Galaxy also has their James Bay spodumene project in Quebec as a 3rd asset. I mentioned here on the KER repeatedly that Galaxy resources was one of the true standouts in the Lithium sector, amongst the over 100 companies that were mostly full of hot air and marketing fluff. I mentioned repeatedly that even though uninformed commodity pundits kept parroting that we wouldn’t need any more producers of Lithium, that Galaxy would nonetheless succeed in making it to production with Mt Cattlin in a few years (and they did just as projected). Sal de Vida is a much larger project though and the real jewel in their portfolio, and hardly “marginal” by any stretch of the imagination.

        With Orocobre I was following them very early on, mentioned repeatedly that they’d be one of the half dozen companies to eventually make it into production, along with Galaxy, NeoMetals/Mineral Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Altura, and Lithium Americas, and that there was likely room for another half dozen beyond those. This was not a popular position to have, and I took flak for it on ceo.ca and Seeking Alpha, but it is was clear to anyone truly studying the Lithium sector that it was never going to just be up to the “Big 3” and that there would one day be about a dozen viable companies, and great returns for investors that positioned accordingly.

        Orocobre did cross the finish-line 2nd, after Talison, as the second Junior Lithium Producer, when most companies will never come anywhere close and are a joke marketing ploy in comparison. Orocobre did have initial challenges getting ramped up into production, as the chemistry and processes around mining Lithium from brine in salars are challenging. Most mining companies have challenges ramping up into commercial production, but that hardly means they were poorly executed, and there plenty of bashers out in 2016 knocking them, but they were doing all the right things to get it figured out.

        When I saw Orocobre turning the corner on getting the processes optimized on production in early 2017, I got positioned in ORL and it went on a fantastic run, along with most of the true lithium companies (like Galaxy) in 2017 into early 2018 on the first big wave higher in the Lithium sector. The moves higher in Orocobre, Galaxy, Pilbara Minerals, Lithium Americas, etc… crushed the returns of most other resource sectors, including Gold and Silver miners at that time, and I had posted about that repeatedly here on the KER, and ceo.ca. When the PMs were in a long consolidation sideways to down and sentiment was souring, the quality Lithium juniors were having a field day, so it was quite the juxtaposition, and why I’m glad to have kept a diversified portfolio.

        It was also pointed out over and over again how wrong many popular pundits were, that kept saying all we’d ever need were the initial Big 3 Lithium companies and they’d provide all the Lithium the world would ever need. They smugly dismissed any companies but the large 3 conglomerates as mining “scamium” and “hopium”, but they hadn’t done their homework and only led investors away ans astray from the sector the smoked most of the rest during a period where all their chest beating about Gold and & Silver didn’t amount to anything but pullbacks and losses for many traditional buy and hold investors.

        I stated emphatically that was BS then, and that the trend towards EVs and the importance of Batteries in many aspects of life would only keep growing exponentially (while many were still doubting the megatrend that was underway and thought it was simply a flash in the pan). Very few actually engaged in the facts, or the research being posted, but occasionally people would chime in with low value comments about how they weren’t going to give up their driving thier gas guzzlers, but this had nothing to do with stopping the trend that was clearly in motion, or the trends in the Lithium mining sector.

        These commodity “experts” and “pundits” were also dead wrong in their understating of the trends that were already well established by this point, and they were living in a previous decade of denial in their minds. They completely blew it for investors listening to them in 2016 moving into the epic move in 2017, where lithium stocks soared up 500%-1000%, so they shifted tactics to dismissing it as a bubble. What really happened was that they completely missed the move and the associated outsized gains, so they scoffed at the sector with sour grapes.

        These same “experts” then took glee in pointing to the lithium price pullbacks in 2018 and early 2019 as proof that the Lithium “bubble” was over. It isn’t surprising that they were dead wrong once again though. Lithium stocks rocket launched again from 2019 into 2020 and into 2021 when the demand for EVs, eBikes, eBuses, laptops, smartphones, drones, forklifts, industrial equipment, and tech has only continued to grow, as the world gets electrified and needs ways to power their gadgets.

        After Talison/Tianqui, Orocobre, and Galaxy all made it into production (something that was never supposed to happen according to the bobble heads being interviewed or penning pieces in economic journals), the JV between NeoMetals/Mineral Resources was next into production. Eventually a different Chinese conglomerate Ganfeng, came in to buy out their stake, creating now a 5th big boy Lithium company (along with Albamarle, FMC/Livent/SQM, and Tianqui). Noticing a trend here?

        Then Pilbara Minerals got into production next, proving once again, there was still room for the quality projects to enter the space, despite the nonsense we’d heard about none of the juniors were going to make it for years before that. Then Altura made it into production next, but had startup challenges, imploded financially, but were taken over by Pilbara Minerals, consolidating those assets under one stronger entity.

        Now Lithium Americas has moved towards production with both their Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina and Thacker Pass project in Nevada, precisely as predicted several years back, proving definitively that there was in fact a half dozen companies that would make it into production (the exact ones that had been mentioned for years before that). Anyone with their eyes open and doing the research, or reading the research that shared could have capitalized on those success stories from very early on, and before they were “overnight success stories.”

        Bacanora has also moved towards production, and was also mentioned on here for many years as another contender. Now there are more companies on their heels like Piedmont Lithium, Frontier Lithium, NeoLithium, Cypress Development. That sure looks like the next half-dozen companies moving towards production, as stated would be the case for the last decade. So much for the “expert” commodity pundits that laughed at the Junior Lithium mining sector, and repeatedly told us in error, that there would only ever be 3 real Li companies.

        As for Orocobre and Galaxy, they were the 2nd and 3rd Juniors into production, have powered through the ups and downs, have offered incredible returns to investors that were positioned (I know as I lived it), and their merger has created a true force to be reckoned with in the Lithium sectors. In a sea of empty promises and marketing sizzle from the over 100 “me too” Lithium jrs, Orocobre and Galaxy stood out well above the masses.

        The haters will hate, and bashers will bash, but anyone that has followed this sector for the last decade or even the last few years, would immediately realize that Orocobre and Galaxy have been 2 of the standout names in the sector, offered fantastic returnes to investors, and they are legitimate producers, real companies, that had a bright future in their own right. As a combined entity, they just took things to the next level.

        • On April 24, 2021 at 12:09 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (ORL) (ORRCF) (ORE.AX)Orocobre and (GXY.AX) (GALXF) Galaxy agree to a proposed A$4B merger of equals, establishing a new force in the global Lithium sector

          April 19, 2021

          “Merger creates the 5th largest global lithium chemicals company with a diversified
          production base and exciting growth platform, with potential to unlock significant
          synergies and realize value to be shared by all shareholders.”

          https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/GXY/02364543.pdf

          • On April 24, 2021 at 12:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is their Corporate Presentation on the new combined entity. I’m glad to have already been a shareholder of both companies, and couldn’t be more thrilled to see this business combination. I’ve been rooting for these to Jr companies for many years, since they were explorers, and it is very rewarding in my mind and wallet to see them combining forces to become one of the big boys. Anyone that doesn’t see this as the true success story for each company from explorer, to developer, to producer, to now this epic business combination just simply hasn’t been paying attention to the Lithium space, and has missed out on a fantastic journey.

            _______________________________________________

            Orocobre And Galaxy Merger – Corporate Presentation on the business combination

            Creating A Top 5 Global Lithium Chemicals Company

            https://gxy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Orocobre-and-Galaxy-Merger-Presentation-Approved-for-release.pdf

        • On April 24, 2021 at 1:59 pm,
          blazesb says:

          So Ex, and not for the first time, I ask when will you publish your own content? I’ll be your first subscriber.

          • On April 24, 2021 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ha! Thanks for saying so blazesb. I do appreciate the kind words.

        • On April 24, 2021 at 2:02 pm,
          David says:

          Thanks Ex for the great post. Printed it out…it is a keeper.

          • On April 24, 2021 at 2:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Much appreciated David. Well, much of it was a look at the Lithium sector, but it led up to this recent merger of Orocobre & Galaxy, that had both already acquired other smaller companies themselves. The resulting business entity will have a quite impressive pipeline of production and development assets, and who know, they may acquire a few more of the smaller companies down the road. It was pretty exciting news in the Lithium space for the last week, and some of those companies haters may be green with envy, but many investors that saw the trend developing and the solid work being advance by both companies are more green with profits. 😉

            I’m sure we’ll see a few more success stories in this sector, like some of the development companies mentioned near the end, and it will be fascinating to see how the pieces on the gameboard keep adjusting in the Lithium space.

          • On April 24, 2021 at 3:27 pm,
            David says:

            Thanks for the additional info. I will go there first.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 5:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Glad to share ideas David. It really depends on where an investor wants to be in the risk/reward spectrum, and which stage of a mining company one wants to invest in; just like with any commodity. With more niche sectors like Lithium, or Uranium, or even many Base Metals, I like having exposure to small to medium sized producers, since I know they have assets and operations underpinning the valuations, and they can more easily monetize rising prices in their underlying commodity. I still like advanced developers in sectors like Lithium, as the company has been at things for a while expanding resources into some kind of resource estimate and economic study, have done studies on processing and recovery estimates, and they have a rough idea of the economics on a projects.

            Personally I’m less inclined to chase the typical exploration stories, that may be trendy with Gold & Silver and even Copper investing, when it comes to smaller niche markets like Lithium, Uranium, Strategic Metals/Cobalt/Rare Earths/Graphite, etc… In most cases there has been plenty of these metals and minerals located, so the projects with key resources & economics already defined in a development stage project, or the actual producing companies with pipelines of development projects are more attractive to my personal risk/reward preferences.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
            David says:

            I am storing ideas until I earn my 2020 taxes before payment. I had about 75% earned until last week and dropped back to about 60%. Not bad so far and still have a couple of weeks of possbility.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 1:32 pm,
            David says:

            Possibility

        • On April 24, 2021 at 6:49 pm,
          Thomas says:

          All Australian hard rock projects were in trouble when lithium prices were low
          Orocobres Olaroz took much longer than expected and had issues (maybe still has)

          • On April 24, 2021 at 7:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, the Aussie hardrock producers like Talison/Tianqi (Greenbushes), Galaxy Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng/Mineral Resources, did pull back some when prices went through a corrective move, just like they would in any commodity, be it Oil, Gold, Copper, Zinc, etc… That doesn’t mean their projects were marginal. It happens to most producer regardless of commodity when prices pull back.

            As for Orocobre, no they haven’t had issues for a long time, and that is an old narrative. Yes, it the pushed off from the gate in 2015 with a few stumbles, (which again is normal for any new producer), and a few issues carried on into early 2016. By the middle of 2016 and moving into 2017 they were rolling right along with production, and they had a quite a run higher during that time period. When the prices started pulling back in 2018-2019, they corrected along with the sector, but that had nothing to do with any major issues, and again, was true of all the producers in the sector as mentioned above with the hardrock companies.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 12:11 am,
            Thomas says:

            I think Orocobre had and maybe still has issues. The September quarter last year was probably the worst for them. They had to sell their lithium for $3102/tonne with only 22% battery grade. SQM got $5400 at the same time.

            https://www.orocobre.com/wp/?mdocs-file=7640

            They increased battery grade to 34% and 47% the last quarter’s

          • On April 25, 2021 at 4:05 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I disagree with framing it that they still had “issues” outside of the scheduled 3 week plant shut down, and Covid-19 delays that many companies in Argentina had to contend with.

            • Production for the quarter of 2,352 tonnes was down 6% on the quarter on quarter (QoQ) due to a three week scheduled shutdown. Plant stability and operating practices continue to improve as evidenced by brine grades that are
            higher than at the same period in previous years and higher recoveries

            • Sales volume for the quarter was up 112% quarter on quarter to 3,393 tonnes, while sales revenue was up 68% QoQ to US$10.5 million following the sale of excess inventory. The realized average price achieved was US$3,102/tonne on a
            free on board basis (FOB)

            . Sales volumes were approximately 22% battery grade lithium carbonate and the remainder primary grade lithium carbonate

            • Cash costs for the quarter (on a cost of goods sold basis) were US$3,974/tonne, excluding the export tax of US$70/tonne but including all additional costs incurred as a result of COVID-19 restrictions and operating practices

            • During the quarter Orocobre entered into a non-binding MOU with Prime Planet Energy and Solutions (PPES), a joint venture between Toyota (51%) and Panasonic (49%) specializing in the production of automotive battery cells, for the long-term supply of product culminating in 30kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in CY25. Discussions are now underway to finalize the detailed terms of the agreement

            • Lithium prices appear to have bottomed and realised Q2 FY21 prices are expected to be higher than Q1

          • On April 25, 2021 at 4:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            • Including SDJ, Borax and Naraha cash and project debt, net group cash at 30 September 2020 was US$102.6 million, up from US$44.6 million at 30 June 2020

            • Brine feed concentration to the plant also demonstrates ongoing improvement year on year with CY20 concentrations remaining close to the desired range of 7000-7500ppm for much of the year despite the usual seasonal variations which occur especially during winter months.

            • Improved operating discipline has seen magnetic particles in final purified products reduce by around 93% ensuring that product specifications remain well within requirements for battery grade material.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 4:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Now, moving forward in time to the March 2021 Operations, it is clear things are moving in a good direction.

            MARCH QUARTER 2021 KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

            – Olaroz Lithium Facility (Olaroz) operations increased the Gross Cash Margin more than $1,800/tonne with the sales price up more than 50%.

            – Costs remained near all-time lows despite much a greater proportion of sales being battery grade material which has higher production costs. Market conditions have improved materially and this will be reflected in higherJune quarter product pricing.

            – Production of 3,232 tonnes was the highest achieved in a March quarter and up 18% on the previous corresponding period (PCP).

            – Sales volume of 3,032 tonnes was up 18% on PCP

            – Sales revenue was up 7% QoQ to US$17.7 million with the realised average price achieved up 54% to US$5,853/tonne on a free onboard basis (FOB) 3 with stronger lithium market conditions. Prices have now increased by nearly 90% over the last six months

            – Cash costs (on a cost of goods sold basis) were down 3% to US$3,867/tonne on PCP excluding the export tax of US$210/tonne. Importantly, costs were only up 7% QoQ despite the proportion of battery grade sales increasing from 34% to 47% QoQ

            • Gross cash margin was up materially to US$1,986/t, an improvement of US$1,812/t on the December quarter with better pricing

            • An agreement has been reached with Prime Planet Energy and Solutions (PPES), the automotive battery cell manufacturing joint venture between Toyota (51%) and Panasonic (49%) for supply of battery grade lithium carbonate during Japanese fiscal year 21/22 (JFY21/22).

            • Lithium prices continue to recover and Orocobre price guidance has now been raised with Q4 FY21 prices expected to be approximately US$7,400/tonne (FOB)

            • Stage 2 is expected to be complete in H1 CY22 and to commence production the following half. Production will rampup over two years to full capacity of 25ktpa of primary grade lithium carbonate by H2 CY24

            • Naraha Lithium Hydroxide Plant construction has continued throughout the period and is now approximately 94% complete

        • On April 24, 2021 at 6:55 pm,
          Thomas says:

          With current lithium prices both are probably fine
          And Sal de Vida Is a good project. Probably the reason Orocobre made this move
          The merger presentation indicates that Sal de Vida will be a key focus

          • On April 24, 2021 at 8:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, agreed that Sal de Vida is the jewel of Galaxy’s portfolio, but Galaxy also brings the knowledge of the hardrock mining from their producing Mt Cattlin mine in Australia, as well as prior IP and knowledge on processing and producing battery grade lithium for the battery plant they ran. In addition, Galaxy has the James Bay spodumene lithium project in Quebec as a 3rd asset.

            These 3 assets, the expertise & knowledge on the Galaxy Resource team make them a great merger of equals for the Orocobre team, and while it isn’t precisely 50/50, it is still like 54% ORL to 46% GXY.AX. This is also a good deal for Galaxy Resources holders, because Orocobre had also just acquired Advantage Lithium a few months before this, so it is like getting 3 companies in one now.

            >> This slide linked below outlines where the combined market cap valuation will sit on the global stage, but also to the right outlines where the combined resources of Orocobre/Galaxy will be relative to the peers. Notice that all the peers they picked are the same ones discussed in the longer Lithium rant above (SQM, Albemarle, Tianqi, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng, Livent, and Lithium Americas) . These are clearly the players in the Lithium sector.

            https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g89nbm-Combined%20Orocobre%20Galaxy%20Lithium%20Company.JPG

          • On April 25, 2021 at 4:35 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Notably Livent [formerly FMC]; (one of the prior “Big 3” that we were told by pundits for the last 10 years would be one of he ONLY producers we’d ever need) is now down to 7th position on the global stage, where the combined Orocobre/Galaxy Resources company will be moving into the #5 slot, ahead of Pilbara Minerals. I don’t think it will take but 1-2 years for Orocobre/Galaxy to move to the #4 spot in valuation, ahead of Tianqi, as the combined resources are much larger, and the pipeline of development projects more robust.

    • On April 25, 2021 at 6:37 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The World is Sleeping on Commodities – 4 Things to Watch Closely

      Katusa Research

      https://katusaresearch.com/the-world-is-sleeping-on-commodities-4-things-to-watch-closely/

  3. On April 24, 2021 at 12:49 pm,
    TONY DESJARLAIS says:

    Speaking of lithium
    Someone take a look at Belmont – BEA
    https://belmontresources.com/
    They have some large lithium claims in Nevada
    Is it worth a gamble

    • On April 24, 2021 at 1:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for the heads up Tony. Much appreciated.

      • On April 24, 2021 at 2:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        According to slide 6 of the Lithium Americas April Corporate Presentation, Ganfeng Lithium owns 12.6% percent of LAC.

        I could see Lithium Americas being acquired by either Ganfeng or even SQM (who had showed interest in the past in Caucharí-Olaroz, their large Argentina Li brine project).

        Check out bottom left of slide 6 to see Ganfeng’s stake in Lithium Americas:

        https://www.lithiumamericas.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf

        • On April 24, 2021 at 2:33 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It also makes me wonder if one of the big boys will make a move on acquiring any of the other producing or near-production companies soon (Pilbara Minerals, Bacanora, Piedmont, Cypress Development, NeoLithium, Frontier, etc…).

  4. On April 24, 2021 at 2:10 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Steve Penny (@SilverChartist) – How To Invest In 2021 To Make Money

    I Love Prosperity – April 23, 2021 #VIDEO

    “In this video, we talk to Steve Penny about how to invest in gold, silver & mining stocks – and how to invest in 2021 to make money. Steve shares the macroeconomic climate, some fantastic charts, and many important graphics that will allow you to see the incredible opportunity there is investing in commodities and mining stocks.”

    https://youtu.be/JlNj47hvpdE

    • On April 25, 2021 at 8:27 am,
      Wolfster says:

      I signed up for the free weekly email to see what it’s like..I like what I’ve heard from him so far

      • On April 25, 2021 at 11:32 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, I been getting Steve’s weekly email most of this year, and like his charting on sectors, ratios, and individual stocks that I also hold in my portfolio. He’s a sharp guy.

  5. On April 24, 2021 at 2:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (4/22/2021)

    #TechnicalAnalysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

    https://youtu.be/5kYlD6_DrN8

    • On April 24, 2021 at 2:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Update: Too Many Analysts Are Too Bearish

      Smart Money Tracker – Gary Savage – April 17, 2021

      https://youtu.be/QfJKlD-TYXE

      • On April 24, 2021 at 2:59 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold Closes The Week In-essence Unchanged

        The Gold Forecast – Gary Wagner – April 22, 2021

        https://youtu.be/8krRycyg5R8

        • On April 24, 2021 at 3:01 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold Price, Bitcoin, & Miners Update

          iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – April 23, 2021 #TechnicalAnalysis

          https://youtu.be/tpPbm8ijmB8

  6. On April 24, 2021 at 3:03 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Bitcoin vs Gold: The Great Debate with Michael Saylor and Frank Giustra

    Stansberry Research – April 22, 2021

    “It’s the showdown that everyone has been waiting for. Gold financier Frank Giustra versus MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor in the ultimate gold vs bitcoin battle. Our Daniela Cambone moderates.”

    https://youtu.be/coHC_9ApBdg

  7. On April 24, 2021 at 8:16 pm,
    Ann says:

    EX. Much appreciated..I Am going to listen to it tonite

    • On April 24, 2021 at 8:28 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Ann. Sure, I’m always glad to share interesting ideas and insights to mull over. Enjoy!

  8. On April 25, 2021 at 7:48 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I think this site is controlled by a giant super computer which is capable of understanding the emotional side of humanity, as well as how the stock market functions in minute detail. I don’t want to get into his telepathic powers or how he can hook into the digital World and send his messages directly to anyone he chooses by accessing their smart phones. Well done Ex, you certainly are a marvel. DT

    • On April 25, 2021 at 11:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Order from Chaos, Birth of Rehoboam (Rehoboam is the SuperComputer in Westworld)

      https://youtu.be/SSRZfDL4874

    • On April 26, 2021 at 9:17 am,
      David says:

      I am going to act like I haven’t read any of this…

  9. On April 25, 2021 at 8:36 am,
    cfs says:
  10. On April 25, 2021 at 8:57 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Quick review as I’ve been too busy with things to follow as closely as I’d like let alone post anything of real significance

    Pot front……I’m glad I got out of most of them as they did have a pullback as I expected…unfortunately IMCC got hit too despite the move to the Nasdaq,another nice addition and a relatively ok quarter and positive outlook for the next 2 quarters…I expect it has bottomed out and should start to climb again…as for the big MSO’s I’m watching but haven’t gotten back in as of yet

    On the EV side of things,I’ve been writing covered calls every 2 weeks on my charge point as the premiums are still nice and longer term I see charging stations popping up everywhere……on the battery front I still hold nano one and believe it’s getting set to begin it’s next leg up after consolidating after its big move over the last year

    Gold and silver I’m just a follower for the most part of plays that everyone here is involved in so no need to say much other than I’m hoping for gold to be in the $1800’s as the month comes to an end

    Now for the sector I’m really focused on with the little time I do have to keep an eye on the prize……Dr Copper…..I was wrong to go after more exploration plays after the nice move by kodiak instead of some producers or near term producers but I think the payoff is on its way. Both kodiak and newly named Black Wolf(how could I wrong with that name) are going to be releasing lots of drill results shortly and continuously throughout this year. Both have tight floats and are fully funded….gsp resources on the other hand has sold off as a result of its illiquidity and will be a while before it gets moving upwards…might be a perfect storm for profits from kodiak and black wolf to be used to acquire more gsp resources

    On a final note, Biden talks a big green game but doesn’t give any actual concrete solutions of how it will be achieved…….there’s only one way to get a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 and that’s to go heavy nuclear….bottom line….that means uranium has to get to $50+/lb …..the warrant king says uranium royalty warrants are a must…

    Keep up the great interviews/commentaries Cory…..rest of the Ker gang keep up the great sharing of info,charts and investing ideas…..2021 is setting up as another bonanza year

    • On April 25, 2021 at 11:36 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, Dr. Copper doing really well lately, closing on Friday at $4.33.

      https://www.investing.com/commodities/copper

      • On April 25, 2021 at 11:37 am,
        Excelsior says:

        1 year Chart of (COPX) Copper Miners ETF showing.

        It’s been a relentless move higher in quality copper the miners most of this year.

        https://schrts.co/YtFDEmek

        • On April 25, 2021 at 3:39 pm,
          Dragonite says:

          I own Copx as well as PICK , XBM.To. They all went up significantly, almost relentlessly.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 9:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Nicely done Dragonite. I hadn’t heard of (PICK) before, but it looks like a nice assortment of the larger base metals companies all in one basket. Thanks for the heads up!

          • On April 25, 2021 at 11:29 pm,
            Dragonite says:

            I compared DBM.to and PICK , personally I feel XBM has better growth potential. PICK is more stable. They are both offered by black rock , one is in Canada and the other US. The reason I go with ETF is that I am extremely bullish in base metals but I have no time to follow individual stocks since I invest in 50 companies in Canada , US, HK and China. But with high quality base metal companies we will do extremely well. I doubt I need to go to detailed level. Only individual company I have is SBSW due to its platinum production. Good luck with all of our metal investors.

          • On April 26, 2021 at 12:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Dragonite. I’ll spend some more time reviewing the holdings of both PICK and XBM and may do the same. Personally, I generally like to have more individual names in most invested sectors to build and manage my own baskets like an ETF, but it is hard to follow too many sectors, and ETFs are great for getting exposure. I’ve done that with oil/gas, cannabis, and solar for example.

            I do have individual companies in my portfolio from the base metals like copper, nickel/platinum/palladium, and zinc/lead stocks, but I don’t do much with iron, tin, aluminum, and so bolting on a good base metals ETF with many of the larger & mid-tier producers that do have exposure to the full spectrum of base metals makes good sense. SBSW Sibanye is well run, and I’m hoping down the road they decide to acquire PGE Group Ten (their neighbors at Stillwater in Montana).

            Yes, good luck to everyone in whatever investing strategies and companies/funds they select.

    • On April 25, 2021 at 10:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Wolfster you nailed it here:

      “there’s only one way to get a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 and that’s to go heavy nuclear….bottom line….that means uranium has to get to $50+/lb ….”

      Bingo!

  11. On April 25, 2021 at 9:23 am,
    Dragonite says:

    Cory and AL,

    What bothers me recently is the oil price. From whatever I can see, the oil price should correct, based on fundamental data and long period of bull run. However, it seems getting into a sideway movement. There are many incidents around to support oil price whenever it wanted to go down. It is really confusing. I subscribe to Josef Schachter’s newsletter but the predictions have not worked out even all the data point to the right direction.

    Does anyone here have a clear picture? Please le me know.

    Can you invite someone who has good track record on oil price prediction to the show (Like Art Berman) so we have another professional opinion?

    • On April 25, 2021 at 9:25 am,
      Dragonite says:

      Oops, Cory’s name was misspelled.

    • On April 25, 2021 at 1:16 pm,
      chris says:

      Try following Eric Nuttall who has been on the right side of oil. I like Josef, but he has been very wrong since the lows last Fall.

      • On April 25, 2021 at 1:25 pm,
        Draginite says:

        What is Mr. Eric Nuttall’s main publication or subscription service? I never followed him.

        • On April 25, 2021 at 2:32 pm,
          Wolfster says:

          You can catch him on bnn Bloomberg occasionally as a guest on market call

          • On April 25, 2021 at 8:25 pm,
            blazesb says:

            You can read transcripts of eric nuttall’s bnn Bloomberg interview at stockchase.com. Transcripts of all interviews are available there.

            Very useful to backcheck historic market calls and top stock picks.

        • On April 25, 2021 at 4:19 pm,
          Chris says:

          Generally bullish”……….search Nine Point Partners to get his top ten holdings. He posts on Twitter if you want his latest thoughts…….he post quite a bit.

          • On April 25, 2021 at 6:20 pm,
            Dragonite says:

            Appreciate your help.

      • On April 25, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
        Dragonite says:

        Chris,

        Do you mind to summarize Mr.Nuttall’s view on near term outlook of oil. I am convinced that second half of the year will be great.

        Thanks.

  12. On April 25, 2021 at 9:48 am,
    Holy Grail says:

    THE WHITE HOUSE ADMINISTRATION IS SETTING THE STAGE:

    It’s now unfolding in real time. Dire consequences that are very realistic and not irrational whatsoever and it’s also leading to war on American soil. Might even arrive, a lot sooner, than later.

    READ ON ~ Armstrong also sees Biden Administration tax plans on things like capital gains causing problems in the not-too-distant future. Armstrong says, “If they eliminate capital gains, I don’t care if you are Republican or Democrat, you are going to have to sell. Your accountant is going to say if you don’t sell, you going to pay twice or three times as much in taxes next year. So, they can create a serious, serious collapse in the world economy. This is in addition to all this Covid nonsense that they have created.”

    Armstrong has been saying for months that deflation would be the overarching theme in the economy. Is that going to continue or has there been a change? Armstrong says, “Deflation is now over. People have to understand. It has nothing to do with the supply of money. . . . If you don’t see a bright rosy future, what do you do? You save your money. . . . One of the number one selling objects in Europe is a safe. People are storing cash. Biden was the straw that broke the camel’s back. People are now seeing that things are going to cost more in the future than they do today. They have also created shortages because of these lockdowns. The inflation is just beginning to start now. It’s based on shortages, and it will continue going into about 2024.”

    The bottom line on the cause of inflation, according to Armstrong, is “a loss of confidence in government.”

    Armstrong also predicts, “We are looking at the prospect of a serious war between 2025 and 2027. All this is completely because of this great reset nonsense. They have been using the Corona Virus as an excuse to try and shut down the economy. If you look at rents in New York City, they are in a freefall. Real estate is going crazy outside of the urban centers. In Florida, what was a $500,000 house last year is now more than $1 million.”

    • On April 25, 2021 at 12:26 pm,
      Bill says:

      Hey Holly
      Hope you are well. Thanks for your thoughts we are on the same page!
      RE has gone nuts in my town. People leaving Vancouver ect.
      The extreme measures to kill small biz cause of the virus is absence. You can’t dine out but you can go to the restaurant on BC Ferries WTF!
      I haven’t been here for some time. I supper busy with my stuff hope all is well!??

  13. On April 25, 2021 at 1:14 pm,
    Danny or dan*bond brother of 007 says:

    Thanks for a wonderful show, a well as full explanations for the metals, and markets
    Keep it up
    Dan

  14. On April 25, 2021 at 1:17 pm,
    Holy Grail says:

    It’s always good to hear from you Bill. Thanks for the kind words and hoping I’m doing well and all. Your always in my kind thoughts and hope everything’s going swell with what you’re doing. I completely understand that you’re super busy. Being productive and busy is very noble. Great attributes.

    I’m still maintaining a good size gold equity position I think we discussing in previous conversations. I think you mentioned you’re still maintaining a gold equity position as well. However, I’m not holding explorer mining companies or these real small juniors because I believe we’re going to have a liquidity crisis that we discussed. They will be sold down the river if it gets bad enough just my opinion of course. Whatever happens, I still have my position and if there is a real haircut and fire sale my plans are to increase my position by 400%. Just being really patient and not acting out with any poor judgment. No regrets, if nothing happens with a fire sale because I have a really good position anyway, so I’ll do extremely well. Anyway, just revisiting some of these investment strategies we were discussing. Probably won’t do anything with the stock market on a short position unless this market really blasts off to the upside. I want my odds up there around 95% at least. I don’t do any small trading I think I mentioned that. Going in for the big jugular. Otherwise, it’s just a waste of time for some small profits. That’s just my own strategy. Been working for years.

    Nonetheless, forget all that noise regarding investment strategies that’s just very insignificant with the prospects for a future that looks like the rails are going off the track. There’s no leadership anywhere to be found.

    Thanks for chiming in Bill. It’s always nice to hear from you and don’t worry about returning any messages because I completely understand. You’re busy and that’s noble. Hard work, brings prosperity. Not the other way around. Then, the harder we work, the luckier we get.
    Then, we learn how to work smarter, not harder, as we go. Lastly, for the very very bad times that are coming and possibly dire consequences. When, the going gets tough, the tough get going. All a very best Bill and take good really care of yourself. Never mind me and some of my slogans however I live by all of them and more.

  15. On April 25, 2021 at 2:05 pm,
    blazesb says:

    Trevali Mining–a zinc miner–has had a rough run the last few years. The share price was at $1.60 when Trump’s trade war knocked it down. Then refining costs which are ‘negotiated’ yearly nearly finished them off. Presently the share price is a pitiful .18.

    But this year’s refining costs have been drastically reduced. Here from Stockhouse is the superb ‘Firecracker’ on what this means:

    Don’t expect a lot from quarter 1. The real turnaround began on April 1. I expect production of 70M pounds of zinc, 1M pounds of lead and 90,000 ounces of silver for quarter 1. I expect revenue of $70M and profit of about $2M-$5M after $3M in hedging losses and $7M in startup costs at Caribou. In quarter 2 I expect 90M pounds of zinc, 18M pounds of lead and 300,000 ounces of silver. In quarter 2 I expect revenue of $105M and profits of $27M-$30M. AISC will be higher in quarter 1 because Rosh Pinah only sells their lead during quarter 2 and quarter 4. The market wants TV to “show me the money”. The reason for the $20M cash flow in April is that TV should receive a $10M refund from Glencore for the TC overcharges from quarter 1. In addition, it is likely that cash flow from operations is now running $10M per month. TV will be able to show you the money very soon. Last year at this time TV was selling it’s zinc for as low as .82 and TCs were $300. With zinc at $1.29 and TCs at $159 this results in a difference of $15M in additional revenue each month and $10M less in expenses. Lead and silver alone should contribute $60M in revenue this year. The mistakes of the past and events beyond TVs control mean nothing now. It is what it is and the .47 rise in zinc and the 46% drop in TCs changes everything. If you have some patience to wait for TV to show us the money the reward could be gigantic.

    • On April 25, 2021 at 2:33 pm,
      blazesb says:

      What i termed ‘refining costs’ are referred to as ‘TC’s meaning Treatment Charges.

    • On April 26, 2021 at 1:00 am,
      Excelsior says:

      blazesb – good points on Trevali (TV). I’ve watched it for a long time, and traded it a few times, but waited for it to mostly collapse in price before getting positioned in it as a turn-around play. Overall I’m down 6% on it, which is fine with me, because as you mentioned the real turnaround is underway. As for TCs from Glencore, I believe they are trying to help their little pet project Trevali, as Glencore is the one that spun out some of their zinc/lead mines into TV in the first place, and if Trevali implodes it will hurt the longer term value they hope to gain in processing the concentrates for TV. If things got real ugly, then one angle is Glencore could just scoop up TV in a takeover, but their mines are too small for Glencore really, which is why they spun them into a Jr base metals company where they would get better value and be more significant.

      I’m very interested to see Trevali climb out of the dark hole it’s been in, and believe it will either swirl the toilet or get a major rerating higher. Obviously, I invested in the thesis for the re-rating higher, but it’s a riskier speculation still, until they do “show me the money”. However, with zinc, lead, and silver prices at much higher over the last year, compared to the rout in base metals the 2 years before last, they have a nice tailwind at their backs, and I’d anticipate that continuing if we see the dollar continue to weaken and inflation keep rising.

  16. On April 25, 2021 at 5:43 pm,
    BDC says:

    Metals(active): https://tinyurl.com/h3sa9xb7
    Platinum Copper and Lithium may start strong.

    • On April 25, 2021 at 5:44 pm,
      BDC says:
    • On April 26, 2021 at 1:03 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks BDC. If Platinum, Copper, and Lithium do start strong, that will be fabulous.

      • On April 26, 2021 at 1:06 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I just checked and Copper is now trading up to $4.40 in overseas trading, so that is a great price for Dr. Copper. It appears it’s run was not over.

        https://www.investing.com/commodities/copper

        • On April 26, 2021 at 1:12 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I believe the all time high in Copper was back in 2011 at around $4.47, so it is getting dangerously close to that area now, which may initially be resistance, but things have really aligned for the red metal over the last few years, and it would not surprise me to see Copper eventually break out and make a new all-time high and maybe even get a $5 handle in the next year or so.

          • On April 26, 2021 at 4:03 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Yes it was Ex and it hit that level twice but never broke through…….third times a charm….producers obviously benefit right now…..hopefully it gets down to my jr explorers and maybe even your namesake will finally come to life

          • On April 26, 2021 at 10:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed. I’d like to see the Copper enthusiasm reach down more into the juniors as well. Yes, I finally got a position in Excelsior Mining recently, so looking forward to seeing it start it’s climb higher.

      • On April 26, 2021 at 6:19 am,
        BDC says:

        Cool! What is your opinion of this Lithium Index:
        https://www.investing.com/certificates/sg-call-solactive-global-lithium
        (I’m always looking for new general data sources.)

  17. On April 26, 2021 at 7:14 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Guess my latest fav for gold is being merged. Not sure what to make of this deal. Especially since it’s not trading up to that $2.71 price.
    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/fortuna-and-roxgold-agree-to-business-combination-creating

    • On April 26, 2021 at 10:51 am,
      David says:

      Roxgold: looks like Rox started trading up but then they smashed Fortuna down. Currently that makes Rox about $1.80 US. Will have to see if Fortuna regains where it was on April 23rd or the plan will not be well received by Rox holders. Rox is
      Is supposed to get .283 of Fortuna for 1 Rox. It was supposed to be based on the Fortuna price on April 23rd. However, the more Fortuna drops, the less the premium for Rox holders upon the transition date…at least that is what it looks like to me.

      • On April 26, 2021 at 11:15 am,
        David says:

        Another way too look at it: yahoo showing FSM closed at $7.71 on Friday. Currently it is at $6.45. In US dollars, the exchange would be worth Rox $2.18 Friday whereas at the moment it is worth $1.82 or about that. Apparently the only thing guaranteed is that Rox owners get .283 of a Fortuna share for each of their Rox shares. That means to me the price of Fortuna on the transfer date determines whether there is a premium or not.

  18. On April 26, 2021 at 11:25 am,
    David says:

    I would think a better way to have said it is that Rox holders would receive $2.73 a share Canadian ($2.20 US) on the exchange date, and if Fortuna goes up or down in the meantime, then the amount of Fortuna shares That Rox got would vary accordingly. Maybe I am reading this wrong.

    • On April 26, 2021 at 11:52 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Yes I get it’s tied to fortuna price now…..my point was the market obviously didn’t like it…. I would think fortuna is getting the better of the deal imho

      • On April 26, 2021 at 12:20 pm,
        David says:

        I just looked at the volume of Fortuna and Schwab is showing about 15.3 mil shares and a daily average of 3.5mil. Now if I was a Fortuna holder, I would be holding. I would say from this response it is a massive shorting action to take advantage of the offer as written. We probably need an explanation from Rox management to sort these things out

  19. On April 26, 2021 at 12:07 pm,
    David says:

    Yes! Very strange. It almost looks premeditated with the dive in Fortuna.

  20. On May 7, 2021 at 9:25 pm,
    Holy Grail says:

    Dear Mr. Al Korelin ,

    Hope you’re doing well Al. Forgive me Al, the last resort and action I would take and consider is to present – inform you of this difficult matter. The ongoing altercations between Jerry and myself. I’m fully aware of the many concerns with all parties. Jerry has been your friend and long time contributor to this site. Unfortunately Al, I can’t continue in this vile malicious deceptive manipulative aggressive harassment from Jerry any longer convoluting and polluting all my messages. It’s unnecessary to elaborate on the specifics. You must be aware of the issues. You also understand how I feel. I must stand for the truth. My only defense, if I remain posting messages on your site is to discourage Jerry from messaging me any longer. That’s not a desirable option as the messages I will return to Jerry will be pages long with scriptures and information condemning willful sinful lifestyles. It’s the last resort, because Jerry will not stop harassing me with license to sin. Not only that, I refuse to be in the company here with such perverted false teaching. With the harassment and teaching these lies on the site. It’s intolerable. I have no issues with debates however this one has been ongoing for over 5 weeks now at least.

    I have done everything humanly possible to tolerate this and practiced patience way beyond the norm. If you don’t say anything to Jerry, I will defend the truth with pages of scriptures and that will get messy. Only way I can discourage him.

    I decided to use a old forum to inform you of my intentions. Jerry won’t stop and I have no choice as described above. I did consider leaving however Larry seemed to have some interest. I’m just planting seeds and who knows how much is being achieved.

    Also, I have other projects I’m working on in the Christian community and the reason I mention this you’re more than welcome to block me. If, my messages are much to long to discourage Jerry. Like I said, that’s my only option remaining to stop Jerry. He’s fine on the site, along with my messages, as long as he doesn’t start destroying everything. Then, it’s going to get real messy. Long messages from me, to him.

    I don’t know what else to say Al. I was hoping Jerry would come out of those demon doctrines, however that’s not possible, if the compulsive lying never stops. Refusing to change. Impossible !!! My apologies for this message and wishing you a blessed weekend. Thank you for everything and if you block me I will understand. Just please, do whatever is in your best interest. Never any hard feelings and just praying for Jerry. That’s all one can do. Efforts are exhausted. 😓