Gold, silver, USD, and Uranium stocks – Outlook to the end of the year
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins me today to share his outlook for gold, silver, and uranium stocks. We tie some of the recent moves in precious metals to the bounce in the US Dollar.
Sold 20% position NFGFF @ $10.72
Very wise to pull profits Marty. At a market cap of $1.9 Billion New Found Gold is getting out way over it’s skis at this point, with a valuation much higher than many of the Gold producers that have multiple mines permitted, built, and producing.
At this point NFG / NFGFF is priced to perfection and doesn’t even have a resource estimate or any economic studies yet, so there is a lot more work needed to validate and keep a valuation like that. There is no doubt that they’ve hit some very nice high grade drill intercepts, but nearly a $2 Billion valuation on a drill play is getting a bit rich. Such is the beauty of a speculative frenzy where all investors can see is blue skies forever…
For a frame of reference:
Argonaut Gold has 4 operating mines in 3 different complexes. AR produced about 200,000 ounces of gold in 2020, and is on track to produce 210K-250K ounces this year.
They have the Magino development project with 4 million ounces of gold M&I, and 2 million P&P, and then another 2.8 million ounces of gold M&I at a 2nd development project, Cerro del Gallo, with another 1.6 million ounces P&P. Overall Argonaut has 6.8 Million ounces of Proven & Probable Gold, and another 13 Million ounces of gold in Measured & Indicated category.
The Argonaut Gold market cap is only 949 million.
https://s22.q4cdn.com/115151820/files/doc_presentations/2021/06/AR-Corporate-JUNE2021-FINAL-WEB.pdf
$950 million market cap for a 210k producer is not cheap when I see what bargains are currently available?
The point was compared at a $2 Billion explorer like New Found Gold, that doesn’t have a resource estimate or any economic studies, then a $950 million market cap producer of 210-250K ounces now, that is about to double that to 500k+ ounces AND has 20 million ounces of gold in the ground is cheap in comparison.
Again, these producers can not just be judged on solely their production metrics, but one also has to take their pipeline of development projects and their ounces in the ground into account.
Magino and Cerro del Gallo are not in production yet for Argonaut, but they will more than double the production output and Magino is currently in construction.
Magino alone has 6 million ounces of gold, which is bigger than most of the exploration and development plays around. Skeena has about 5 million ounces of Gold and is valued at $894 Million about the same valuation, and it does not have 4 mines in production with a 5th on the way.
Great Bear is valued at $831 Million and also doesn’t have a resource estimate yet or any economic studies, but they are at least close with 380 holes drilled and they will be producing a maiden resource after 400 holes are completed later this year. Many believe they’ll be in the 5-7 million ounce range, which is about the same size as just Magino in Argonauts development plan, and Magino is under construction and still expanding.
That doesn’t even take into account Cerro del Gallo for Argonaut with another 4+ million ounces of Gold as the next development project and the 6th mine in the pipeline for Argonaut.
Argonaut is still incredibly undervalued when looked at through the lens of what these exploration/development companies like New Found Gold, Great Bear, and Skeena are worth. It is likely there are other producers that are also still quite undervalued, but the initial point is how overvalued NFG is at near $2 Billion and being earlier stage than any of the companies just mentioned. At least Great Bear and Skeena are much more advanced in how much they know and understand about their deposits.
Could you elaborate, what bargains are you talking about?
$2 billion market cap for an explorer is heavy -:)
$1 billion for a 200k producer I find a fair valuation
Argonaut as 500k midtier is a different story. But how many years they say already that they will produce 500k -:)
Wasn’t aware that exploration plays are already valued that high again
Agreed Jens – I’d be interested in what bargains Thomas sees as well, as there are many undervalued producers in the space, and am always open to learn which ones others feels are good bargains. Thomas if you have any that are catching your eye we’d be interested to learn more about them or take a look.
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As for the $950 valuation on a 210-250K ounce producer…. comment. This is missing the mark in many ways.
AGAIN, as mentioned above, to distill a company down to merely it’s production metrics is missing a great deal of the intrinsic value of the company’s development stage projects, and ounces in the ground and is not an accurate take on the company’s valuation.
I took time already on this editorial and in past posts to unpack why that is NOT a fair assessment of (AR) Argonaut because:
1) they are transitioning towards a 500,000 ounce producer in under 2-3years, they have 2 very large development projects (larger than most other explorers or developers stand alone projects), and they have 20 ounces of gold in the ground for the company between M&I and P&P.
2) Magino has 6 million ounces of gold (M&I + P&P), and is on track to be their 5th mine. This isn’t wishful thinking either – the capex is in place, development and infrastructure work is underway, and first gold pour is only 1 1/2 years away.
3) Their next development project and mine #6 for Argonaut is Cerro del Gallo with 4 million ounces of gold. Again, there not many 4 million ounce development projects around (maybe 14-16)… much less the 6 million ounces for Magion.
4) Both development projects Magino & Cerro del Gallo have a combined Net Present Value of over $1 Billion based on a $1700 Gold price (see page 13 of their slide deck I posted above).
>>> That means that both projects satisfy their current market cap, and there is 0 value give for their 4 producing mines at 3 mining complexes and annual production of 210,000 to 250,000 ounces slated for 2021.
> Just valuing AR for their annual production may seem on target, but then it discounts the $1 Billion valuation on their 2 very large development projects. Either way, it is grossly undervalued still at $1700 Gold, and even more so if Gold gets back up to $1900 or $2000 again down the road, due to all the optionality on their 20 million ounces of gold still in the ground.
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With regards to comments about the valuation of hot explorers :
Yes, either they are over-valued or Argonaut is vastly undervalued, or it is a combination of both. I believe it is the latter, and just demonstrated how undervalued Argonaut is as just their 2 development projects justify their current market cap, not counting the 4 mines in production, or the coming increases to production, or the potential of higher gold prices rerating their ounces in the ground.
As mentioned in just the 3 examples above where New Found Gold is valued near $2 Billion as an explorer with no resource estimate or economic studies done yet, is quite rich in comparison and they have a LOT of work needed to keep a valuation that high. If a producer with 4 active mines and 2 massive development projects is priced at less than $1 Billion, (and there are PLENTY of other producers I could reference for comparisons like this), then why is a drill play in Newfoundland with no resources or economic studies valued at $2 Billion. What does the market expect here??
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“Great Bear is valued at $831 Million and also doesn’t have a resource estimate yet or any economic studies, but they are at least close with 380 holes drilled and they will be producing a maiden resource after 400 holes are completed later this year. Many believe they’ll be in the 5-7 million ounce range, which is about the same size as just Magino in Argonauts development plan, and Magino is under construction and still expanding.”
(The point of that comment was to point out that the market doesn’t even know yet exactly how much gold Great Bear has until they release their resource estimate and it is almost valued at the same thing Argonaut is already. Just Argonauts 1 development project Magino is about the same size, but again, Argonaut has 4 other producing mines & associated deposits, along with Cerro del Gallo. If Great Bear is priced fairly, then Argonaut is way undervalued).
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Same deal with Skeena, who has north of $5 million ounces and plans to work on proving out about $7 million ounces after their next few drill campaigns. Skeena is more advanced than either New Found Gold or Great Bear on the mining cycle, and have resource estimates and economic studies under their belts. Skeena is valued at $894 Million at present. Again, just Argonaut’s Magino is about the same size project, and yet their valuation is only slightly more than Skeena’s valuation. Clearly Argonaut is not fully valued, or these explorers are a bit ahead of themselves, and as demonstrated throughout this post, and the one above, it is Argonaut that is undervalued. There are many other producers in the same boat, and even other development stage companies with a few million ounces of gold that are not valued at even close to similar levels. Just food for thought…
In another thread I asked for opinions about IAMGOLD
That‘s a 600k midtier for just double the market cap of Argonaut
IAMGold is likely undervalued as well then, because in the last cycle, that kind of production output would have had a much higher market cap in the multiple billions.
Same thing as above, I’d also be interested to know what their development projects are in the pipeline and their overall resources in the ground, as those need to be factored in, above and beyond just the production metrics.
Really most of the producers have still not digested these higher metals prices, and were valued 2-3 times higher back in the last cycle 2011/2012 when metals prices were last at these price levels.
As for IAMGold, I believe both Doc and Glenfidish have positions so they may be able to share their technical or fundamental outlook on the company.
They have the Cote project in the pipeline that is a tier 1 mine with 500k production
13.9Moz P&P Reserves and 23.9Moz M&I Resources
I have been holding IamGold for about 2 years now…undervalued for sure, but has been an severe underperformer pricewise. Does not excite the market for some reason. Dead money for 2 years now, hopefully it will change soon enough. And yes, some of these explo plays could be really overvalued already in this early stage. Exited many of my explorers already. “Thomas”- I am still genuinely interested in what other great bargains you are seeing? still got some cash to burn…otherwise will pile in on to my U-stocks holdings on weakness. “Excelsior”- Do you have any good silverminers on your radar…I have a really hard time finding any that I like. Already own the usual AXU, AG, AAG, ELO, SVE, ASM, AUMN, GSVR, MMG & ITGR. But compared to good goldstocks these silverstocks seem second rate.
I am buying more Equinox at the current price – the blockade is only temporary and the sell-off was to much. The growth pipeline is impressive and they producing already 600k
If we are still in a gold bull market, it is probably not a bad idea to invest in Ross Beaty‘s last gold producer at a bargain 😀
Can’t imagine what this company will be worth, if Gold is at $3000 and they produce 1.3 million ounces. A big winner in my eyes
Yamana is also available a at bargain
1 million ounces producer for $4 billion
They have 50% in probably the best 1 tier asset in Canada (together with Agnico)
New Found Intercepts 150.3 g/t Au over 11.5m at Lotto
Vancouver, BC, June 23, 2021: New Found Gold Corp. (“New Found” or the “Company”) (TSXV: NFG, OTC: NFGFF) is pleased to announce recently received assay results from four holes drilled at the Lotto Zone (“Lotto”), located approximately 2km north of the Keats Zone discovery.
RSNVF – Reyna Commences Trading on OTCQX
[2021-06-23 14:06]
So far, gold has perfectly backtested previously broken and reacquired support:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p08715588347&a=903805792
I hope it holds. GDX is showing bearish engulfing on monthly. If it breaks down then there’s greater pain coming IMO. I’m in the camp this is a major confidence shakedown but I’m not so sure of myself Lol.
It looks like an ugly bear flag that points to about 32 but obvious downside targets tend not to be reached if the underlying situation is really bullish. My guess is that any drop to a new low will not see good follow-through. The move will be truncated to about 33 IF it makes a new low at all.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34825125640&a=938437763
Looks like gold & gdx is going to make another low. Probably 1700-1750 & GDX around 33 bucks? If this blood letting phase is going to eventually take us to 2500+, I am not complaining.
The clear appearance that lower lows are coming is exactly what opens the door to a fake-out since many will sell and/or sell short ahead the obvious. We’ll see…
It is almost like everyone believes a lower low is coming and we know in most cases it doesn’t happen. I believe gold peaked around last August and it has been in this 11 month correction. If this is a bull market, we are very close to the bottom.
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of SLV since topping in 2011 is shockingly high at $23.47, just 50 cents below the current price. This is “shocking” because it spent about 7 years trading well below that level (2013-2020). It shows that the average investor/trader left it for dead during the bear market rather than choosing to confidently bet on the bear market and thereby keep volumes closer to those found during the previous bull market. You could say that volume did not confirm the bear market. Such low volume pullbacks are generally bullish within any trend, in this case the very large secular one that began decades ago.
https://schrts.co/ZVDISufI
It’s a small but good sign that SILJ gapped up versus GDX today and is still outperforming it with less than 5 minutes to go.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p38941927530&a=961488305
Yes, always nice for the PM sector to see the Silvers outperforming the Golds.
John McAfee Found Dead in Spanish Prison Cell: Reports
Justin Rohrlich 46 mins ago
R.I.P. to the tech innovator, crypto HODL’er, and cult of personality – John McAfee.
There is going to be more to the story……. … I doubt the IRS wanted him back , …
I thought the crime was from the State of Tennessee …. Something fishy going on.. JMO
Yeah, that thought crossed my mind as well OOTB. It’s amazing how many high profile folks that could spill the beans on many of the elites decide to commit suicide in jail. 😉
I only posted it here on the financial side, because of how big John McAfee was a technology innovator with his McAfee virus alert platform, and because he was a big proponent of Bitcoin & the Cryptos.
Speaking of the Cryptoverse…. Goldfinger dished out another great article on the speculative fervor in so many markets that we’ve seen over the last year.
_________________________________________________________________
The Madness Of Crowds 2021 Edition
by @Goldfinger on 22 Jun 2021
“In late-December 2017 I penned a blog titled “Drunk on Crypto” in which I captured the essence of the height of the 2017 crypto bubble.”
“Cryptocurrency proceeded to enter a bear market in January 2018 (just as it reached peak euphoria) that lasted for roughly two years. I often looked back on my Drunk on Crypto blog post as an example of an extreme market euphoria that I might not see again.”
“Little did I know that 2021 would happen!”
“The stuff I have witnessed in the last six months is not only like nothing I have experienced in my lifetime, but it’s like nothing I have even read about. The reckless risk taking, the widespread hubris, the exponentially multiplying pump & dumps, the number of outright frauds/scams, and all the celebrity promoters.”
“2021 has had it all, and I’m not even talking about the stock market. I’m talking about crypto.”
“Elon Musk relentlessly promoting a “dog coin”, Dogecoin (DOGE), and making a Saturday Night Live appearance that ultimately marked a top at a nearly $100 billion market cap. The media was all over Doge because it made such a great story when it was going up. This excessive media coverage resulted in hundreds of thousands of retail investors getting sucked in during Dogecoin’s parabolic blow-off run that culminated in Musk’s SNL appearance.”
“Sometime in mid-May a friend of mine who has never bought a stock in her life told me that she had put $50,000 in Dogecoin. When I asked why, her answer was that it was fun and Musk would keep making it go up. I did everything I could to avoid rolling my eyes. When I asked her “what if he stops tweeting about Doge?”, she didn’t have an answer.
“One of the key hallmarks of a bubble are that the bulls lose any fear of loss as they become absolutely 100% convinced that prices can only continue rising. And then prices stop rising, and the bullish faithful enter the denial stage:”
This morning’s email may very well mark a short term low in crypto, however, that is not the point. The above Dogecoin chart illustrates a parabolic blow-off top, followed by the classic distribution stage, and markdown stages of the market cycle. Dogecoin is in a stage 4 decline, and a little oversold countertrend bounce isn’t going to change that. This is headed below $.10 in all likelihood.
“Then we had Tom Brady “laser eyes” at Bitcoin $60,000…. (see chart)”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/the-madness-of-crowds-2021-edition
Speculation: The Post-Pandemic National Pastime
Photos and tweets selling on the blockchain. Stock investments in companies with no product. Welcome to the new Gilded Age.
By David Dayden – March 17, 2021
https://prospect.org/power/speculation-the-post-pandemic-national-pastime/
Ha……..I posted that one over at the Orphan Political section….. 🙂
I thought that was a speedy trial………
On June 23, 2021 at 12:59 pm,
OOTB Jerry says:
ANYONE BEEN FOLLOWING >>>>>>>>JOHN………….
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/john-mcafee-may-die-prison-after-spain-approves-us-extradition-tax-charges
Reply to this comment
On June 23, 2021 at 1:00 pm,
OOTB Jerry says:
That was a speedy trial…….
It shows no respect for what it costs the people to put on a high profile trial
Just a real shame, that he was on top of his game one minute, and the DOA…..
Powers to be or not to be…… Really a sad ending….
Sad: It has been a sad story for someone gifted with creativity. Not sure how these things reach a conflicted end point.
Nibbled on some LUM, AXU, and AAU today. There’s going to be plenty of time and opportunity in the future to get some stocks at lower prices.
Nice nibbling Doc. I had added a bit to my AXU position last week.
Today added to my DEF Defiance Silver position. Really I’ve spent the last 2 weeks fortifying a number of my Silver mining positions, and even if we see more weakness in the metals prices and share prices, with Silver in the mid $20’s that is still plenty good for most legitimate silver companies to operate or develop projects.
Ex, I’m going to have to look into DEF more —I don’t know that much about the company but there seems to be a lot of interest in it. I might add that very quietly M2 money supply is slipping and that may portend decreased inflation as the foreseeable future unfolds The Fed might be correct about transitory inflation for awhile.
DEF Defiance Silver is a Silver drill play / development company operating in Mexico. Bob M. is the one that pointed it out to me years ago, and he mentioned they could put holes anywhere and hit mineralization as it was a prolific district, but the issue has been for years they were cash strapped. They’ve switched up some of their team, had a good exploration program last year, and are cashed up again to drill their projects again in 2021.
Initially, I got positioned in Defiance back in August of 2018, and have been gradually building a position since then, and did do some swing trading around that core position last year and earlier this year. As a result of trimming some back in January, it was under weighted so I bought some during the PM swoon in March and a bit more in April and added a bit more today. I’m not recommending others do the same, and was merely sharing my trade today.
I also sold a biotech stock today HAVN as it hasn’t been doing much, and I see more opportunity in the PMs after this recent draw down.
Here’s the Defiance Silver Corporate Presentation for quick reference:
https://www.defiancesilver.com/assets/docs/presentations/DEF_Presentation_Short_June_2021.pdf
I should have mentioned that Defiance also has their Tepal Gold/Copper project as well, with a current measured and indicated resource of 1.8 million ounces of Gold &
813 mm lbs of Copper. That’s a very nice secondary project to complement their Silver project.
Gold: Fed’s Meeting Activates Annual Buy Triggers
Jun. 23, 2021 – Equity Management Academy
> Summary
– Last week, Fed Chairman Powell basically did nothing.
– Based on the 10-year note, it does not seem to indicate that there are fears about inflation.
– Lumber prices have collapsed to 907.50.
– The US dollar is facing a tremendous amount of supply, which is being added to the economy.
– The Fed’s balance sheet has reached unprecedented levels.
“We use our proprietary Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) to analyze the markets and to act as a GPS for our trading. Based on the daily data, the VC PMI identifies the extreme levels above and below the mean. We favor trading at the extreme levels, since such trades have the highest probability of success. The VC PMI daily average gold price is $1778. The extreme level above that average is $1792, which is the VC PMI Sell 1 level. The Sell 2 level is $1801. The VC PMI extreme levels below the mean is $1769 and the Buy 2 level $1755. The daily average price is $1778. With the price closing below that price, it is a bearish price momentum according to the artificial intelligence in the VC PMI. ”
Everyone has a PROGRAM…… 🙂
Haha! Great point OOTB. Yes, everyone has their own unique system or program, and none of them are fool-proof or even close to being perfect, but having a solid systematic approach to the markets allows one to be less emotional and more methodical in how one approaches buying or selling.
I follow that Equity Management Academy over at Seeking Alpha, and was reading it over recently, and just figured I’d post their thoughts. Their program is not buying or selling until their readings get to extreme overbought or oversold levels, and they don’t do much when readings are in the neutral areas. I thought their near-term upside and downside targets may be interesting for others to consider.
Who knows right? (remember – nobody knows anything) 🙂
Their process is also based on AI and algorithms, so it literally is a PROGRAM.
It’s possible that even robots don’t know anything either. 🙂
Ex……………great thoughts on the PROGRAM…. 🙂
I have gains for the week, but almost exactly the amount of gains from Emerita alone. The other 40 miners alternate days for Zero balance. The plague goes on….
The June ABCD 1.618 extension is 1.12, but today’s high volume bar means more is likely.
Note the late volume push : https://postimg.cc/WqdsSG5D
A 200% extension from .72 gives 1.22 as a possible near term top.
EX…………. I posted this for you, we talked about the other day
On June 23, 2021 at 7:40 am,
OOTB Jerry says:
Ex……Silicon based batteries ….. check this one out….. NEO Battery Materials Ltd
Bobby M. gave a review on this one….. in his LIKE PILE…. 🙂
Hi OOTB. Thanks for the follow up on our battery discussion the other day.
Yes, I had commented on Neo Battery Materials about 2 weeks back when discussing battery companies and the new push into Silicon-based batteries, but it has already run really up higher really fast (likely due to Bobby M. discussing it the last few months, as he can really move the needle on companies).
Personally, my strategy was to get positioned a few months back into both the HPQ Silicon Resources and their joint-venture with Pyrogenesis Canada because they looked more undervalued and I was following along with their news and developments more. I missed the boat on Neo Battery Materials and didn’t learn about it until just a few weeks back. Having said that, I’m pretty happy with Pyrogenesis as there has a been a really nice run in (PYR) the last few months as well. It is interesting that the (HPQ) HPQ Silicon Resources has just continued to pull down though, and I’m slightly underwater on that position now, but have averaged down in it.
In addition to the Silicon-based batteries I have also been gradually getting positioned in the smaller Lithium-ion battery companies with unique stories like (EGT) Eguana Technologies and (EFL) Electrovaya, as they have cooled off from there big ascent higher from last year into Jan/Feb of this year, and those battery stocks have been pulling back down the last few months. Another new Lithium-ion battery company that has really been hammered down the last few months is (BES) Braille Energy Systems, so I’ll keeping a close eye on that one as well.
Lastly there are the Hydrogen Fuel Cell companies touting “Blue Gas” as the next big thing. A few names I’m watching but have not positioned in yet are (BLDP) Ballard Power Systems, (FCEL) Fuel Cell Energy, and (PLUG) Plug Power.
There are lots of interesting developments in the Batteries sub-sector of the larger Energy sector.
Ex……….thanks for the reply………. appreciate……
Folks better be careful here. The FED is in the process of creating another liquidity crisis. In the reverse repo market they’ve increased rates by 5 bps which doesn’t seem like much but when you’re dealing with trillions it’s a lot. They’re in the process of draining cash from major institutions. You’re seeing M2 dropping as well right now. This can only eventually be a negative for all markets. The conventional markets are starting their drop and it looks like home sales and prices are starting to crack. Folks better be very careful here.
Doc,
Do you think quality dividend paying miners will get hit it too?
Cali, to some degree, yes. The PMs in my view are going nowhere for some time especially if the FED is doing what I think they’re doing. However, it’ll be the same thing as the past; they’ll have to over-react.
CaliJoe, the worst is most likely behind us for this Fed “news” (non-news) dip. GDX has already corrected 15% and probably has no more than 2% to 5% left to go.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p79962275608&a=941347611
Thanks Matthew.
I want to believe you. I have been buying Barrick and Agnico – personally I like them from dividend point of view. Rational thinking makes me to believe they are at bargain but I don’t trust those conniving bankers.
DOC’s comment on repo rate increase was definitely a concern. We will see how it all plays out.
Gold and the gold miners are now technically set to benefit from stock market weakness sooner rather than later. It’s safe to say that a big rotation out of stocks and other asset classes is underway and the monetary metals and their miners are the main beneficiaries aside from bonds.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p62988007507&a=978546851
Doc – Thanks for those comments and the word of caution.
I’ve been getting that eerie feeling like we are about to get a black swan from somewhere that takes the wind out of the sails of this overly speculative froth we’ve seen in so many markets. As a result I’ve just put my UVXY position back in place for the next few days, as a chaos hedge.
It seems most generalists are very enthusiastic on the re-opening trade, on growth stocks back on the move, and the sense that every dip in the general markets should be bought, which raises my contrarian alert signal. For their sakes and the sake of my retirement portfolio (different than my trading portfolio) I hope they are correct and that stocks keep powering higher; however, as a hedge I figured a short-term volatility position would help me sleep better at night, in case we wake up one morning soon and see the poop hit the fan. If we do see stocks continue to trend higher the rest of this week and next, then I’ll likely remove that volatility position, as those ETFs decay in value fast, but I’ve just been very uneasy lately with the complacency and “can’t lose” attitude I’ve been seeing in the general markets. Most of the FAANG stocks and Nasdaq tech stocks and even the Russell Small Caps have been trucking higher again, and it seems like nobody believes anymore that a meaningful correction could hit the general markets. When everyone is mostly bullish, and volatility continues to decline, I get a bit uneasy, and even if it is misplaced concern, I’m happier with a modest volatility position in place for this week and moving into next week. It’s probably an unjustified worry, and maybe the markets won’t correct hard ever again, but I’m less convinced of that, and far more concerned about the larger structural issues under the surface with bonds/rates, with the repo market you mentioned, with overinflated home prices and asset prices everywhere one looks, and medium to longer term with inflation (even if we do see a decrease in inflation over the next 2 months).
I share your concern, but I don’t want to make last years mistake and flip gains that are ST taxable and then have them smash the whole account. The end result was that the only one making money was the IRS. I have good gains for this year, but just getting back to 2020 levels. That is not enough. It looks like they are repeating 2-3 month gain patterns and then the sideways nothing burger. Perfect moment again to smash PMs leaving me with a tax bill.
I guess I am saying I am reluctant to save myself as I would be forced to sell my losers like Novo. But, I don’t know if it is a loser as they have not reported their status as a producer. Do ai take the loss and it run away. Or, do I take a gain and have them smash my account that leaves me with taxable gains but a smaller account.
I share your concern, but I don’t want to make last years mistake and flip gains that are ST taxable and then have them smash the whole account. The end result was that the only one making money was the IRS. I have good gains for this year, but just getting back to 2020 levels. That is not enough. It looks like they are repeating 2-3 month gain patterns and then the sideways nothing burger. Perfect moment again to smash PMs leaving me with a tax bill.
I guess I am saying I am reluctant to save myself as I would be forced to sell my losers like Novo. But, I don’t know if it is a loser as they have not reported their status as a producer. Do ai take the loss and it run away. Or, do I take a gain and have them smash my account that leaves me with taxable gains but a smaller account.
The bottom line is: manipulation of any form is illegal.
I see my post twice. That’s an improvement on never seeing it. Makes my day.
I realize that posts sometime don’t post because of author error…but to get a double post…that’s special.
+2 David. Lol!
Sometimes if people hit submit, and then hit submit again before the post loads, it will double post.
So disappointed..,I thought it was Divine Intervention for quality.
Haha! Well, you never know…. maybe it was…
smart move
Starr Peak(STE.V) featured at oilprice.com as the next big thing, because of a large VMS find in Quebec.
Hi Terry. Have you ever heard of (SGY) Surge Energy?
Someone I respect has been sharing some of their updates with me, and it looks like an interesting Oil & Gas play.
Here’s a recent presser from Surge:
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(SGY) Surge Energy Inc. Announces Strategic $160 Million Southeast Saskatchewan Light Oil Acquisition; New $215 Million Credit Facility; and Upward Revision to 2021 Exit Rate and 2022 Production Guidance
by @newswire on 22 Jun 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/surge-energy-inc-announces-strategic-160-million
Another one that has done very well for me recently has been BIREF. I’ve owned it for about 2 years at some very nice low prices.
Yeah, Birchcliff Energy has been on a tear for sure. I believe Josef Schachter had mentioned them a few times in past episodes when discussing oil. Thanks Doc.
*Out of curiosity – for those following the Oil & Gas plays, what did people think of the company Hemisphere Energy that we brought on the show a few weeks back?
Is anyone following this company or do they have any thoughts. We are trying to bring a few more Oil & Gas companies onto the show and nobody said anything on that blog.
____________________________________________________________________
HEMISPHERE ENERGY – AN OVERVIEW OF THIS HIGH-MARGIN, SMALL SCALE OIL PRODUCER
Korelin Economics Report – June 7, 2021
Don Simmons, President and CEO of Hemisphere Energy (TSX.V:HME – OTCQX:HMENF) joins me to introduce this high-margin, small scale oil producer in Southern Alberta with 2 oil pools (G and F pools) in one area called the Atlee Buffalo. We focus on the growth plans for this year mostly focused on converting the G poll to a polymer flood as well as drilling a few more wells. We also discuss the estimated cash flow for this year, and next, and estimated debt repayments. The Company is focused on maintaining high margins and utilizing the cash flow for continued growth.
I don’t know Surge but there is a Canadian oil and gas guy, Josef Schachter, who discussed it on BNN Bloomberg Marketcall.
Another frequent guest on that show, Eric Nuttall, is also into Canadian oil and gas.
Eric Nuttall also positive on Whitecap and Baytex
Thanks Terry. Yes, I had just referenced Josef Schachter up above regarding Birchcliff in my response to Doc, but didn’t realize he had also mentioned Surge Energy. We’ve had Josef on the show a number of times, and he really knows the Oil & Gas sector well.
I’ve got both Whitecap and Baytex on a recommended list of Oil & Gas plays, so it is nice to get further confirmation on those.
I’ve heard others mention Eric Nuttall, but personally am not as familiar with his work, but will keep an eye out for his analysis moving forward. Much appreciated.
Nuttall discussed Surge on Marketcall, Dec.11,2020. Negative on it.
Well Nuttall blew that call then. Surge Energy is up considerably since December.
(SGY) hit a low in December of $.275 and closed today at $.73. Chart below:
Nuttall in the penalty box..10 minute misconduct.
Haha! Yes. But only -1 as it is only 1 missed call on Surge Energy.
I have heard of Eric Nuttall before and know he is respected in the space.
In his defense, most pundits were not expecting $73 Oil back in December of 2020; nor were they expecting it go down to negative and then $10-$20 last year. Oil has been on a wild ride over the last year.
Don’t know surge but Doc has done very well with Birchcliffe last couple years.
My average price for BBB today was under .165
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p69997157301&a=784157311
Hi Matt,
Bought more brixton
Myself. Technically when .20 was broken 15.5-16 was what I was looking at. If we continue to have weakness it may go down to that .13 level next. If it really gets bad .9-.10 would be a dream. However I’d really like to see a turn soon and I think there is good possibility that the .15 if it comes could mark a good low..
Impact is still on my radar .46-.48 but again at this point falling knives is panic and is countered with smart money buying.
I can’t remember a time recently glen has said the miners are extremely beat up and forgotten. We went in less then two weeks from super cycle to almost every analyst saying we are finished for sometime. I actually think we could have that less mini dip but also there is room for an unexpected rise in short order just because of this bearish extreme mood.
Let’s see what gives.
The situation will resolve sooner and more bullishly than the cautious people think. This pullback across the sector had a lot of help and the fact that it came immediately after the Fed’s last meeting indicates as much. No action shakes out weak hands like a fast plunge and the lack of volume in a lot of tiny caps makes their new low prices less meaningful technically. For example, today’s volume in BBB was one-third the size of my position and one-quarter of one percent of the outstanding shares. So I have to laugh at all the fear. It’s a bit different for the companies that make up GDX but still no cause for concern. The big caps “earned” their pullback by moving first and moving most after the March lows. This smash is “resetting” their recently much less appealing charts (less appealing for buying, that is).
The stock market is “done” from a risk-reward standpoint (and probably from a price standpoint as well) and big money knows it. Meanwhile, the situation is just the opposite in the gold/silver space. Most commodities are also done for awhile and need a break. So rest assured that money will increasingly flow into our miners and the metals and bring bull market action back in the process. Those who think the sector will just meander aimlessly for the rest of the year do not understand the new environment. This isn’t 2014 or even 2017 much less 2011-12.
That’s a very encouraging outlook Matthew. Thanks for sharing your insights and outlook on the miners (both seniors and juniors).
I’ll be very keen on seeing money increasingly flow into our miners, and believe we’ll see another nice rally into the fall once we bottom in these summer doldrums. I’m running out of dry powder fast, but still looking to top up a number of names if we see a bit more weakness.
Let’s see what happens. I am in the bullish camp but this selloff has made me question my thesis for investing in gold. Running out of cash and will power…
(JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Mining Intersects Significant Sulphide Mineralization at Corrego Brandão
June 23, 2021
(SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold Intersects 14.8 g/t Over 13.4 Metres as it Extends the Baltic Gap Mining Front at Plutonic
by @newswire on 23 Jun 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/superior-gold-intersects-148-gt-over-134-metres
(AZM) (AZMTF) Azimut Exploration Inc. Drills 24.0 g/t Au over 18 m, including 38.7 g/t Au over 9 m, in the expanding Patwon Gold Zone, Elmer Property, Quebec
June 23, 2021
(BTR) (BONXF) Bonterra Resources Significantly Increases Mineral Resource Estimates Across its Deposits and Sets the Stage for a PEA Later this Year
June 23, 2021
Silver Price Update
Christopher Aaron – iGold Advisor – June 23, 2021 #TechnicalAnalysis
Emerita up again on clarification of the criminal case against 14 defendants that tried to defraud a tender process years ago over a property that Emerita appears to be the only legally recognized bidder. The criminals have exhausted the appeals process and now must plea or go to trial. This is not new news, but merely clarification of something already a fact.
Per TA, it should hold above a buck,
else bearish engulfment with shooting star.
Too close to call. Canadian charts may assist.
Buy- NFGFF $9.91
Citibank
HSBC
Naked shorting these miners yet you can’t find gold physical gold without paying a hefty price over spot. The premiums are insane and that’s even if you get delivery within a month I was told by a local dealer.
Hui looks like it’s putting an important low on the monthly candle. It is now in oversold territory on stochastics. Can it go slightly lower? Yes! but could the bottom be very close? Yes yes
At some point the naked shorting of these banks will have to cover there criminal positions and play the game up. Same guys who play up play down.
From what I see, the gold fundamentals are Intact and we are working towards putting in a very important bottom that will be the start of a very important long term trend. If there is more pain in the short term for the longer vision then so be it. But make no mistake these miners should not be trading at these levels. Paper shorting is criminal. My understanding is that here in Canada it’s still legal or there able to do it.
Do not sell even if shares go lower and important too is close. Could be end of this month or September but it’s close. Hedge funds and banks are at the forefront of this nasty take down!
Glen
Glen:
Agree
JUNE 28……….. in a FEW DAYS………….. 🙂
Thanks Jerry and David
We wait ⏳
Just the BIG PICTURE ……… 🙂
You can now buy spot gold through Interactive Brokers for a commission as low as 1.5 bps and take delivery if you want. The smallest purchase amount is 1 ounce.
Interesting Matthew.. actual real bullion delivery straight home? Did not know this if that’s the case. I wanted to get a feel for the streets out there in the real world what is happening. I guess either way they register you unless the street dealer does a cash deal lol..
Glen…… you are correct on the street pricing…. same in our area….. Indianapolis area.
Jerry,
I’m I’m etobicoke Ontario Canada and in my parameters we have now approximately 3/4 gold venders/dealers and increasing. Most of them are Jewish owned, I would think they know a thing or two 😉
No harm Intended 🙂
I plan to go check out the others to get more of a feel.. I think silver coins are going to be monsters in the future..
Glen…….
I think you are correct on the silver,…. 🙂
Last time I said anything about jews, I got booted… lol… mums is the word… 🙂
Matthew…….. what is the Freight charge…..?
I don’t know but it can’t be much. I have a lot of experience with receiving USPS insured metal from multiple sources over the years and it has always been too cheap to think about.
Heck, an armored truck in Hong Kong only cost me $200 ten years ago (to move metal from one vault to a competing vault).
God dam
How much metal you have Matthew 😝 armoured truck? Shites through a man a bone lol
Dang Glen, that was funny……
I keep forgetting gold vs shipping silver….. 🙂
Jaja
Yes jerry silver way lighter and easier to transport.. Heck I would Uber it lmao 🤣
🙂
Bullion banks must be in real trouble or know there is no law enforcement at the Federal Level…still. What a bogus take down…
Good one David…..Law enforcement…. lol…….. 🙂 That has been gone for years….
To short the pop tomorrow into 14,575 the 1.27% expansion of this AB=CD up is as good a place as anywhere…..Hard to tell if this top will be significant…..I will give it a shot…..
Regardless of the very short term, an intermediate top is very likely forming. Trend strength has collapsed since February based on the weekly chart and the daily cycle is getting somewhat stretched.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87213682656&a=979061888
Yup,
The chart looks like it’s setup for a nasty nasty! Shit I sound like I’ve been to a few taverns lol.. They have become Obsolete
Thanks Larry, David and Jerry also Matthew for the thoughts today! Keep rolling in those thoughts and charts…
The overall consensus is we are close!
Glen
ditto Glen……… 🙂
NDX, if it forms a hammer candle today …This could be a top in NAS stocks…Very possible, we almost made a price high within a percent of the next fib 1.27% expansion…glta
Metals/Markets: https://tinyurl.com/6vpkf67m
Markets up-saturated in tandem. Maybe topping.
nothing to short at 9ish
smh. I’ll take this as a contrary indicator, given a breakdown would spell the end of the bull market.