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A further breakdown in gold and silver vs the continued strength in tech and the broad markets

Cory댊
June 29, 2021

Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show joins us to share his thoughts on the continued weakness in gold and silver vs the strength in tech. As Joel notes, gold is at a key level where a trader can take a position with a tight stop. As for tech, Facebook just hit a $1 trillion valuation which is showing the rotation of money back into growth. We also discuss the concept of fundamentals when it comes to analyzing these sectors.

Click here to visit the Benzinga website and listen to the recordings of the PreMarket Prep Show.

Discussion
38 Comments
    Jun 29, 2021 29:01 AM
      Jun 29, 2021 29:05 PM

      Not sure what that means?

        Jun 29, 2021 29:46 PM

        That means gold is likely to outperform stocks in the days, weeks and even months ahead (since the weekly chart is also oversold).
        If you were to put on a trade that does not include currency uncertainties, you would go long gold and short the stock market.

    Jun 29, 2021 29:35 AM

    Gary Savage was calling for silver $50 by fall.
    He also predicted that last October, was charging $50 for seminar on silver options, I think his followers lost thier shirt, now after 8 month correction he at it again.
    Maybe next year it will happen and he will go on his blog and say I told you so. Guy says he never wrong but will use one of his favorite terms, in real time, he not even close.

      Jun 29, 2021 29:53 AM

      He is one of those perma bull gurus making money from subscriptions. Always bullish and crying manipulation when trades fail.

        Jun 29, 2021 29:37 PM

        His cycle theory is nebulous as best. If cycles were that accurate, they will be hired by large Wallstreet firms and everyone would own a private leerjet and bunch of rollsroyces. But I think he makes a TON off subscription

          Jun 29, 2021 29:51 PM

          Around 2013-2014, he was calling for gold to reach 7000. Pure madness. There are no gurus in this business. All of us make bad calls but he is selling delusional hopium to clueless subs like every other newsletter guru. In my opinion, cycles don’t work in any consistent manner.

      Jun 29, 2021 29:08 PM

      Gary savage makes a living from subscribers not his own investments period! His cycle work is good until it fails then he bails. Regardless of that I think Gary brings value because there is not one perfect system nor person as we have witnessed with predicting the price of gold and the miners more specifically.

      So choose who you want to follow personally I choose myself everyone is entitled!

      Glen

        Jun 29, 2021 29:05 PM

        Glen…………. Rocky Bull Winkle Savage…. is less than 50% correct anytime…
        Rocky climber, with a short noose to catch his decent….. lol……
        Gary’s bar bells dropped a long time ago…. There are VERY FEW, who know what is going on …… Gary is guessing just like most, … the cabal is in charge, and that has been solid info for years……. All a big scam……. Fortunately, GOLD holds value to those who do not own it in the entire WORLD. GOLD is not going anywhere but UP…… Nothing has changed, except the TIME FRAME. … And NO ONE KNOWS the TIME FRAME…..ALL ONE BIG GUESS.
        WHO HAS the PEANUT……… 🙂
        BTW………. I like GARY……. he is just making a living

    Jun 29, 2021 29:45 AM

    Great interview with Joel Elconin. Good info.

      Jun 29, 2021 29:02 PM

      Thanks David. Our last few discussions with Joel have been quite lively and funny 🙂

        Jun 30, 2021 30:43 AM

        “Fundamentals?…there are no stinkin Fundamentals”…Funny!

      Jun 30, 2021 30:51 AM

      Joel didn’t exactly say that about “fundamentals”. But close…paraphrase so to speak 🙂

    Jun 29, 2021 29:55 AM

    Looking at the 30 minute chart, I’d say gold/GLD is probably going up in the final hour today. (For those who can see it)…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=p55911857808

      Jun 29, 2021 29:28 PM

      Took them all day to get me negative…hoping more s move up now. I wonder if the MMs would give up their career and open a lawn service or something where they make noise, cut things but leave humans unharmed. Win win…

        Jun 29, 2021 29:06 PM

        Ended green for the day. Great call Matthew.

          Jun 29, 2021 29:20 PM

          Thanks but I expected much more from gold itself in the final hour. Perhaps it needs to attempt a retest of today’s low tomorrow. It’s a good sign that most miners finished well off their lows. Mine clawed back roughly 70% of their morning decline overall.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:59 PM

            Most of mine did not recover. Without Emerita, I would have started and ended red.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:32 PM

            My portfolio ended in the red today, down about 1.5%, but alas, I don’t own any Emerita.

            As Matthew pointed out many miners did claw their ways back out of the hole a bit as I was down about 3.5-4% initially during the morning hours, so ending the day down 1.5% is much preferable.

    Jun 29, 2021 29:14 PM

    This is a great-looking buy setup for risk-averse buy and hold types. This is the 6th day down for the HUI.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69905375000&a=982826709

      Jun 29, 2021 29:46 PM

      Not a lot of people noticing this, but GDX is still holding its golden cross

      https://schrts.co/zyptZSNt

        Jun 29, 2021 29:13 PM

        That’s one of the benefits of a quick decline. Now it needs to rise quickly.

        SILJ also has some good stuff going on…
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p29449642347&a=982992113

          Jun 29, 2021 29:24 PM

          Right! The timeline and ferociousness of this decline is one for the books. Although one would argue the validity of that golden cross since price is far below both MAs and they are pointing downwards.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:43 PM

            Gold Panda just wrote very positively about Silvercorp on Seeking Alpha. I’ve been watching SVM for some time and continue to hesitate because of the Luckin Coffee effect. SVM appears to be a Chinese company but listed in Vancouver so gotta wonder about that, especially with most of their valuable assets located in PRC.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:38 PM

            Worst June for gold since about 2013.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:49 PM

            Hi Terry – I continue to have SVM Silvercorp as a solid holding in my portfolio, as the lowest cost of the silver producers by a large margin, and while they are a Canadian company mostly operating in China, they have expanded into South America by incubating (with a 28% stake the silver explorer NUAG New Pacific Metals in Bolivia, and a 19.9% stake in VG Volcanic Gold in Guatemala. They had already tried to take over Guyana Goldfields last year, but got outbid, pocketing the CAD $9 Million break fee instead (the easiest $9 million they’ve ever made). As a result, they have been putting more focus on diversifying outside of China, and also recently acquired the La Yesca Silver Project, Nayarit State, Mexico, for a North American acquisition.

            However in addition to this new diversification into Bolivia, Guatemala, and Mexico, Silvercorp has also strengthened their breadth in China, extending their mining permits by 20 years with the blessing of the government, and winning a mine at government auction in China this year. That all bodes well for the future of Silvercorp, both in China, and abroad in the other countries they’ve expanded into.

            Jun 29, 2021 29:03 PM

            Yeah Doc. It has been a bummer of a June in the PM space, but that is succeeding a nice move higher in April and May out of the $1673 March double bottom. Still the move down in June has been a drag on sentiment, and smacked back down some of the breakout moves Gold made in the prior month.

            The miners have had another reasonable pullback in June as well, which I’ve been deploying funds into, but am running really low on spare dry powder at this point. I added to my Alamos Gold (AGI) and Excellon Resources (EXN) positions today for example. I added to my Fosterville South (FSX) and Cartier Resources (ECR) the end of last week. There are so many good opportunities to pick up stocks as they correct down here, and I’ve added to near 20 of them in June.

            It remains to be seen if we have even more weakness to come into the Precious Metals sector for the month of July, and if Gold will find a new short-term bottom in the mid to low $1700’s and make a “higher low.” That would be fine with me, but if Gold goes down to retest that March double bottom at $1673-$1675, then I’d really want to see that level of support hold. A break below that level would inflict more serious chart damage, and tank sentiment even lower than it already is, so I’m more optimistic that we’ll see the low put in soon in the mid-low$1700’s, and then start the next leg higher from that new higher low.

      Jun 30, 2021 30:51 AM

      Matthew,
      Do you pay attention to real rates? Here is a chart from twitter.
      https://twitter.com/CRutherglen/status/1410105237516414976/photo/1
      It seems like gold follows real yields but there is a disconnect since the last fomc meeting.

    Jun 29, 2021 29:38 PM

    Green Copper Demand To Average 13% Annual Growth Over Next 10 years

    Mining.com Editor | June 28, 2021

    “Fitch notes, the demand profile for copper will change as decarbonisation goals accelerate in 2021, and lead to much more demand from the energy and automotive sectors.”

    “Fitch has quantified the impact of the green transition on copper demand, and subsequently revised up its global demand assumptions.”

    “As a result of greater energy transition, Fitch forecasts green copper as a percentage of total copper demand to rise from approximately 5.6% in 2021 to 15.7% in 2030. Growing from a forecast 1.4mnt in 2021 to 5.4mnt in 2030, Fitch expects green copper demand to average annual growth of 13.0% y-o-y over the next 10 years.”

    https://www.mining.com/green-copper-demand-to-average-13-annual-growth-over-next-10-years-report/

      Jun 29, 2021 29:07 PM

      CHARTS: China’s Overseas Copper Mining Scramble

      Mining.com Editor | June 29, 2021

      “China consumes as much industrial metals and battery minerals as the rest of the world combined, purchases more than 70% of seaborne iron ore, and is also the top user of gold.”

      “S&P Global Market Intelligence put together a set of charts showing China’s mining sector’s ambitions overseas to meet rising domestic demand and make the country less dependent on imports — particularly from Latin America and Australia.”

      https://www.mining.com/charts-chinas-overseas-copper-mining-scramble/

    Jun 29, 2021 29:09 PM

    (MUX) McEwen Seeking Copper Partner To Take Advantage Of Higher Prices

    Jun. 29, 2021

    “McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX) is in talks to sell a stake in a copper project in Argentina as part of a proposal that could see part of the project sold privately and then taken public,” Chairman and Chief Owner Rob McEwen tells Bloomberg.

    “McEwen describes Los Azules in San Juan province as “one of the larger undeveloped copper projects in the world not owned by a major,” with potentially more than 200K metric tons of annual production and a valuation topping $5B at today’s higher copper prices.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3711186-mcewen-seeking-copper-partner-to-take-advantage-of-higher-prices?mail_subject=mux-mcewen-seeking-copper-partner-to-take-advantage-of-higher-prices&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

    Jun 29, 2021 29:06 PM

    (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Metals: Buy This Unicorn Prospect For A Song As Stars Are Lining Up

    Jun. 29, 2021 – Laurentian Research

    – “Lion One Metals is a rare alkalic gold exploration play. It operates the Navilawa project in Fiji, part of the circum-Pacific ring of fire.”

    – “The stock has been locked in a slump after a great run on the discovery of deep-seated gold beneath the known Tuvatu deposit.”

    – “Why the stubborn share price weakness? Is the investment thesis still valid? Is it a generational entry opportunity or a value trap?”

    > “In this article, I analyze what may have been misunderstood about Navilawa, what the management has done to de-risk the project, the near-term catalysts, and the risk-reward profile.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437138-lion-one-metals-buy-this-unicorn-prospect-for-a-song-as-stars-are-lining-up?mail_subject=lomlf-lion-one-metals-buy-this-unicorn-prospect-for-a-song-as-stars-are-lining-up&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

      BDC
      Jun 30, 2021 30:27 AM

      Its 78.6% retracement is .8206 (2020 range).

    BDC
    Jun 30, 2021 30:46 AM

    Current Dollar Index : https://tinyurl.com/82avjdx8

    Jun 30, 2021 30:40 AM

    News from Tartisan Nickle this AM seemed to make it move. ??

    Jun 30, 2021 30:02 AM

    Another Ground Hog Day.