Weekend Show – Sat 3 Jul, 2021

Portfolio management for the resource stock investor

Full Weekend Show

A very Happy Canada Day and July 4th to all our Canadian and US listeners! We hope you all have a great weekend.

On this Weekend’s Show we focus a lot of portfolio management for precious metals investors. It was another slow week for markets and metals, and with the outlook of a slow summer upon us, we figured it was a good time to discuss different strategies for investing in the metals sector.

Please keep the emails coming. Either Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com. We love hearing what companies you like and any questions you have that we should focus on.

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Erik Wetterling, Founder of The Hedgeless horseman, kicks off the show by explaining why he is the most diversified then ever in his precious metals portfolio.
  • Segment 3 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx joins us for a discussion on the term “transitory” as it relates to inflation, the reopening trade, and boost in consumer spending. This is a replay from our Daily Editorial posted on Friday.
  • Segment 4 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc, wraps up the show to share his thoughts on the future for gold and the stocks he likes.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week.

Upcoming KE Report Webinars – On Wednesday July 7 @ 10am PDT (1pm EDT) I am featuring Northern Vertex Mining (TSX.V:NEE – OTC:NHVCF). On Thursday July 8th @ 12-noon PDT (3pm EDT) I will be joined by Tombill Mines (TSX.V:TBLL). Be sure to click the links below to sign up for free and have first access to the recording. Please send any questions you have for either company to Fleck@kereport.com

Click here to register for the Northern Vertex Mining webinar on Wednesday July 7th @ 10am PDT.

Click here to register for the Tombill Mines webinar on Thursday July 8th @ 12-noon PDT.


Erik Wetterling
Marc Chandler
Doc
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Comments:
  1. On July 3, 2021 at 3:47 am,
    Thomas says:

    Cory/Shad thanks for another great show

    • On July 3, 2021 at 4:52 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Much appreciated Thomas. We are blessed to have such great contributors that come onto the show all week long to share their insights with us all here at the KE Report.

    • On July 3, 2021 at 5:04 am,
      Thomas says:

      Ex, the about Page maybe should be updated. Don’t even know your first name (sorry for that)

      http://www.kereport.com/about/

      • On July 3, 2021 at 5:27 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Agreed 100% Thomas. Cory & I have talked about that and there are a number of areas on the KER that need updates. Stay tuned as we are about to overhaul the whole website and many areas, and have been working hard on that behind the scenes all year long, and they should be ready in the not-too-distant future.

        • On July 3, 2021 at 7:55 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          +1

          • On July 3, 2021 at 8:04 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Hey Glen…… you should listen to usawatchdog…… on the RESET.. and the central bankers…. this will change some of the rules….
            You can make all the money you want, but, will you be able to keep it…. 🙂

        • On July 3, 2021 at 8:01 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Let’s hope you do not screw up the political section…. LOL….. 🙂

          • On July 3, 2021 at 8:45 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            Lol no worries jerry…Yes I’m up to date with watch dog been listening back and forth for \since about 14-15 years ago Peter Schiff, Armstrong and many others. Thank you

            The plan of action although I do not hold and bullion is realstate and I have property outside of Canada. Hopefully we can make much more and exchange for property, land and assets.. a little bullion won’t be bad. 🙂

          • On July 3, 2021 at 9:07 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Glen…… the “screw up “… comment was directed to EX… lol… 🙂

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi OOTB. We have no intentions on screwing up anything, but when we do finally launch the new website look, it will have a slightly different page orientation, and even a bit more info being shared, so I’m sure they’ll be some folks that complain that is different (just like there is anytime there is any change on any platform).

            As for the political section, we have no intentions on changing it, as it is working just fine now as it currently. We’ll still have the same link over to it, and it gives people a forum to voice their thoughts and share info, but keeps those comments in that section and not on the financial section.

            We hope most will see the website upgrade as just that, (an upgrade), because this layout is very dated looking, and we get that feedback fairly regularly from other guests and companies that visit the site.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Another positive on the web update will be our comment section should FINALLY include an edit/delete function on posts, so that folks will be able to go back and tidy up a post for spelling or missing words etc… or option to delete the occasional double post or post that went in the wrong area, to then post it where one wants it to go.

            We have also asked the the web developer for an improved search function (as this current one is rather clunky and doesn’t find things in an efficient way).

            Overall we believe the KER family will appreciate the vast majority of the changes as they are geared around making it a bit more visually appealing and modern looking, but also have had many conversations outlining ways for it to have increased functionality for anyone visiting the site.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:34 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂
            Thanks for the reply EX….. of course you have no intention of screwing it up… 🙂

          • On July 3, 2021 at 12:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Cheers OOTB! Yes, while we have no intentions of screwing anything up, there are always a few kinks when a new web site is launched getting all the data, page layout, links, etc… to work. (so I’m sure we’ll screw up something… haha!)

            Hopefully folks are patient when we finally pull the trigger on the new site and know we are trying to improve the experience for everyone and simply modernize the website look.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 12:36 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            EX……Ditto on cheers….. stay cool……. all is good……. 🙂

          • On July 3, 2021 at 12:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The heatwave in the Pacific Northwest is pretty much over now, but we’re still working on staying cool. We drove up into mountains near our local volcano and it was great to get that cool mountain air, and we’re headed to a different volcano today.

            We also eventually got in the lake when the temps got up to 103 one day and 106 degrees the next earlier in the week. Normally that would be fine, but having no A/C for days, not getting good sleep laying in sweat, and having an elevated heart rate for days finally took it’s toll on our energy levels.

            http://cliparts101.com/files/978/57D8AE530D0E3F1E2059CAA30E97E8E1/Stay_Cool.png

          • On July 3, 2021 at 1:37 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ha, 106…… tell Cory to spring for an ICE BOX…. 🙂

          • On July 4, 2021 at 5:07 am,
            David says:

            The updates sound great as I need all the help I can get in making edits. Appreciate the time and expense to make those changes.

        • On July 4, 2021 at 6:02 am,
          Aetas Aurea says:

          Hi Ex.
          Great interviews and content, so thank you to Cory, you and the team. Is it possible to make the website more mobile/cellphone friendly? I tend to view on my mobile in the quieter moments between family life and work.
          Thanks

          • On July 4, 2021 at 1:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Aetas Aurea and thanks for the kind words. Yes, we’ve discussed having the site changes work well on mobile device layouts as well as traditional computer layouts. Cheers!

          • On July 8, 2021 at 1:38 pm,
            franky says:

            Nice Show Cory ! Cory Don’t need A ( AstraZeneca updat ) Astas Azures !

  2. On July 3, 2021 at 3:50 am,
    Thomas says:
    • On July 3, 2021 at 5:24 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Interesting update on GM and CTR and the offtake agreement.

      Most of the Lithium producers have offtake agreements with chemical conglomerates or battery manufacturers, but we’ll likely see more and more manufacturing companies decide to partner up directly with companies to source their raw materials and guarantee supply and more importantly that sourcing was ethical and ESG friendly. One example that comes to mind is Samsung partnering directly with Avino to source Silver for manufacturing. We’ll see these same types of offtake agreements expand in most commodities.

      Lithium producer Orocobre, set up an offtake agreement with Toyota last year.

      ___________________________________________________________________________
      August 2020

      Major new MOU signed with Prime Planet Energy & Solutions Inc.

      Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE, TSX: ORL) (Orocobre or the Company) advises that a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) has been signed by Orocobre, Sales de Jujuy (SDJ,the operator of the Olarozlithium facility), Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TTC), Toyotsu Lithium Corporation (TLC, the TTC subsidiary in Naraha joint venture) and Prime Planet and Energy Solutions Inc. (PPES) for the supply of battery grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate for use in PPES battery production supply chain.

      PPES is a 51%/49% joint venture between Toyota Motor Corporation and Panasonic

      https://www.orocobre.com/wp/?mdocs-file=7558

      • On July 3, 2021 at 5:34 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Then there was the offtake agreement that BMW did with Livent (formerly FMC) for Lithium offtake earlier this year.

        ___________________________________________________________________________

        Livent Announces Lithium Supply Agreement With BMW, Expects Revenue Growth In 2021

        Vladimir Basov – Friday February 19, 2021

        https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-19/Livent-announces-lithium-supply-agreement-with-BMW-expects-revenue-growth-in-2021.html

        • On July 3, 2021 at 5:42 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Most of the Lithium offtake agreements though will still be on the traditional manufacturing or battery manufacturing side of the equation, which is fine and will support the dozen or so Lithium mining producers just fine.

          Here’s a good example of a solid Lithium offtake agreement from the end of last year:

          _____________________________________________________________________________

          SQM announces 8-year deal to supply lithium to LG Energy Solution

          By Fabian Cambero – December 22, 2020

          “Chile’s SQM said on Tuesday it had inked a long-term agreement with LG Energy Solution to supply the South Korean battery maker with ultralight metal lithium, a main ingredient in powering electric vehicles.”

          “SQM, the world’s No.2 producer of lithium, said the contract would run between 2021 and 2029 and involves the supply of approximately 55,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, SQM said in a statement.”

          https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sqm-electric-lithium-idUSKBN28W1DR

  3. On July 3, 2021 at 4:26 am,
    Terry Huebert says:

    Had another look at RED5 after your comments Ex and took a bite, my only meal for the day. Victor Smorgon Partners took a bigger bite last week adding 80M+ shares to their already substantial holding, bringing their total over 10% of the company.

    • On July 3, 2021 at 5:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Terry. Good luck to you in the Red5 (RED.AX) position, as it has pulled back to a good spot for accumulating at this point, most of the investor dilution has already happened, and longer term they should see their free cash flows expand in the coming years.

      This was a good research piece on Red 5 put up recently by Simply Wall Street.

      https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-red/red-5-shares

  4. On July 3, 2021 at 5:56 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold is about to Get Irrational to the Upside says Analyst Michael Oliver

    MiningStockEducation – Jun 29, 2021

    0:57 Gold price commentary
    4:31 What is driving gold price in the near-term?
    8:53 What could derail gold’s upward move?
    14:03 Gold & silver about to get irrational to the upside
    19:17 Silver
    20:52 What’s driving commodity prices?
    26:59 Fertilizers & grains
    29:02 Analyzing niche metal markets
    31:00 Will we see stagflation in U.S.?

    https://youtu.be/O5o2FDFAszs

    • On July 3, 2021 at 5:58 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Chris Blasi: Forget the Noise, Precious Metals Will Prevail

      Investing News Network – June 29, 2021

      0:00 – Intro
      0:20 – Is gold at a reasonable price right now?
      4:39 – A system this dysfunctional can’t go back
      8:13 – Current retail demand for gold and silver
      11:40 – Neptune Global’s PMC Ounce
      16:39 – Silver, platinum and palladium in 2021
      22:33 – Chris’ thoughts on gold vs. bitcoin
      26:18 – Outro

      https://youtu.be/dd7KbFld7Ok

    • On July 3, 2021 at 3:45 pm,
      CaliJoe says:

      Oliver and the rest of the yahoos stay in focus with their outrageous predictions and sad thing is, people have time for them. He’s been predicting this since 300 BC. That is how old it gets listening to these guys.

      Right Doc?

      • On July 3, 2021 at 4:29 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Oliver does himself a disservice with his predictions because they lead people to think that they are based on the work that people pay him for when they are not. Those predictions are all his. They are subjective and not based on his objective studies of momentum.

        As for gold getting irrational to the upside, I don’t know what he means by that but the quarterly and yearly charts are absolutely supportive of surprising moves that will catch a lot of people off guard. Big charts trump smaller ones when they are dominant/trending, like now. In 2016, the weekly chart was the one to watch but countless analysts completely botched that huge opportunity by focusing on the daily charts which looked perpetually unappealing and ready to correct. So there were a lot of top-callers way before the actual top. The underlying market forces were so great that it appeared as if the daily charts were repeatedly grabbed by the scruff of their necks and dragged away kicking and screaming. The quarterly and especially yearly charts now look very capable of causing the same thing with the monthly and weekly charts and that potential will remain if gold doesn’t turn down here and head much lower. In 2016, those big charts were detrimental to the move as were many other technical factors. It’s very different today. The power under this market now is MUCH greater than it was in 2016. In fact, there’s no comparison.

        • On July 5, 2021 at 7:34 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          DITTO……….

  5. On July 3, 2021 at 6:03 am,
    Excelsior says:

    How To Profit From Inflation With Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks – Jeff Clark Explains

    I Love Prosperity – June 29, 2021

    “How to profit from inflation is a question we should all be asking. Inflation is a trend that is likely to stay with us for quite sometime. If you don’t know how to profit from inflation, you very likely will lose purchasing power, and the standard of your lifestyle will decrease, as inflation erodes the power of your income and savings. But if you how to profit from inflation, you can participate in the biggest wealth transfer in human history, as we continue to print incredible amounts of money. This is where buying gold, silver and mining stocks come into play.”

    https://youtu.be/xex-cQByDvQ

    • On July 3, 2021 at 6:06 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Stocks, Crypto and Gold Trading With Gareth Soloway

      Kitco News – June 29, 2021

      “Soloway, a trader who integrates technical analysis with macroeconomic forecasts, has been a recurring guest on Kitco News and has made a number of accurate, influential market calls over the last year including shorting Tesla from the start of 2021, calling for gold to continue its downtrend in Q1 2021, and most recently, for Bitcoin to retrace $30,000 earlier in May.”

      https://youtu.be/hs0QqDicAPk?t=4

      • On July 3, 2021 at 6:17 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Warning Signs Show Big Tech Stocks Could Crash This Summer – Tommy Thornton

        Cambridge House w/ Jay Martin – June 28, 2021

        “Tommy Thornton, Founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, delivers a masterclass on using sentiment to be a better contrarian investor. This interview covers the investor mindset and behaviors behind meme stocks, the commodity trade, big tech stocks, Bitcoin, and the dysfunctional markets in 2021. Tommy shares his own indicators and strategies for successfully betting against the crowd.”

        https://youtu.be/-ZZI4jfWWAc

  6. On July 3, 2021 at 6:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Nomi Prins – The Banks Are in Bed With the Fed; the U.S. Bank Stress Test Cover-Up

    Stansberry Research – Jun 30, 2021

    The Federal Reserve gave U.S. banks a thumbs up as all 23 lenders easily pass the 2021 stress test. Best-selling author Nomi Prins says this is “not-so-shocking news… the biggest banks are OK after nearly 13 years of zero interest rate policy.” Speaking with our Daniela Cambone, she explains, “the Fed ‘only’ had to buy $8 trillion of assets with fabricated money along the way. So now Wall Street’s given the green light for another round of record-setting buybacks.”

    https://youtu.be/QT1serlZZp0

    • On July 5, 2021 at 7:46 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      That is really not news………….

      • On July 5, 2021 at 7:49 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        but, then again…… goes to show nothing has changed for the good.

  7. On July 3, 2021 at 6:25 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (7/1/2021)

    #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts – Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

    https://youtu.be/95x5C13MDM8

  8. On July 3, 2021 at 7:21 am,
    bonzo says:

    Erik, I bought FFOXF@.24 yesterday. How would you compare it to Aurion AIRRF?
    The future belongs to Finlandia. Happy 4th!

    • On July 3, 2021 at 7:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Aurion Resources and Rupert Resources are 2 of the better exploration companies in Finland.

      • On July 3, 2021 at 7:32 am,
        Excelsior says:
      • On July 3, 2021 at 7:34 am,
        Excelsior says:
        • On July 3, 2021 at 8:40 am,
          bonzo says:

          Thanks, Ex. As Rupert already sells for a billion I’ll stick to Aurion and FFOX and pray they also go to a billion.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:04 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Sounds good Bonzo. I own both Rupert & Aurion, but have trimmed Rupert back as it has become more advanced (and it could be a takeover candidate at some point in the next year or so).

            Maybe I’ll throw a little bit of cheddar at Firefox to collect the whole Finland set. 😉

            As for Aurion, it still has much further to run in larger bull market, and with strategic shareholders like Kinross, Newmont, and Eric Sprott, along with a few key institutional investors, then they shouldn’t have many issues raising capital along their exploration and development journey moving forward.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:19 am,
            bonzo says:

            Ex, I just learned that AEM owns 15% of Rupert, so I do own Rupert via AEM. Maybe AEM will buy Rupert.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 11:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Bonzo – Yes, Agnico Eagle has a 15% stake in Rupert, so the chatter amongst Rupert investors has been that at one point in the next 12-18 months that maybe AEM will make a move on RUP. Rupert has really hit some fantastic high grade intercepts on their land package, they are still exploring and growing resources, but they are getting more mature. They do have 2 permitted and built gold mills on their large land package, so they can always move into production on their own, and maybe AEM wants to see them do that first before pulling the trigger. It will be fascinating to watch to see how it plays out.

            With Aurion, S2 Resources, and Firefox moving along, Finland is really becoming quite active again for precious metals exploration and development.

      • On July 3, 2021 at 8:05 am,
        Harry says:

        I always appreciate Docs observations and when everyone was was supper bullish when we got the recent double bottom he was one of the only analysts to maintain caution and he ended up being spot on. I’m wondering if he has a newsletter or if he is able to look at my portfolio as it’s been destroyed lately.

        Cheers for the great work guys – love the podcast!

        • On July 3, 2021 at 1:37 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Harry, the low happened in March and Doc remained bearish right through it. It’s been the same at every low for years. On Monday, with the HUI at 265, he said: “there will be all kinds of good companies on sale—the candy store has not opened its’ doors for business just yet but it is coming.” The HUI is now 270 and probably going higher.

          A new low is possible in the weeks ahead as some Elliott Wavers think but that possibility is no excuse for ignoring sector-wide oversold readings (weekly ones in March and daily ones now) among other factors and considerations.

          We just had the HUI retest the same moving average that it thoroughly tested in March and the risk-reward now clearly favors the bulls.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p81770003583&a=982826709

          • On July 3, 2021 at 2:36 pm,
            Pyrite says:

            Matthew,
            Would gold closing over 1850 confirm a bottom? It would be nice if we finally see this correction since August 2020 end.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 3:12 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Closing next week above 1810 will probably do it for me since that would put gold above its “P” pivot and 20 week MA (silver just finished above its own 20 wMA by 2 cents). I like the KAMA and it is about 1858 right now. The thing about confirmation levels is that none are perfect and everyone seems to have a different one. Gold’s weekly MACD never did sell following its buy of 2 months ago so it would be great if it doesn’t next week; it’s very close.
            Last week was definitely for buying with its nearby objective sell stops to choose from.

            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=8&dy=0&id=p99754760882&a=985479155

          • On July 4, 2021 at 10:17 am,
            Harry says:

            Yes that’s what I was saying – he was one of the few analysts that maintained a bearish call after that double bottom when I was advised to go all in. And my portfolio has been smashed with the massive sell off last few weeks. That’s why I was wondering if he did a newsletter or some sort of advisory service as there is no information about him online.

          • On July 4, 2021 at 12:34 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Harry, the gold and silver ETFs and indexes are still 10-12% above their March low so going all-in at that time was fine/disciplined despite this selloff. GDX is now flat (no gain) relative to the top of the first wave off of its low.
            My point was that doc never calls a low so they come and go without him saying a word, or in some cases, he remains bearish after a clear breakout, May/June 2019 come to mind. Not only did he remain cautious after a clearly bullish breakout, he said the miners would go nowhere until 2020. Instead, GDX went up 50% in 3 months and SILJ went up 70%. Without any exception that I can recall, he has remained bearish right through every important low when he should have turned bullish. The last time that he was vocally very bullish was on the eve of the crash of 2013 that saw gold drop about $500 in about 3 months.
            The past week+ was definitely a buying opportunity but he’s still looking for the “candy store” to open later. We’ve had objective extreme weakness and oversold readings so those who like to buy weakness should have been doing so already, regardless of whether or not a new low comes. We play the odds without a crystal ball so the current setup is appealing since it provides objective sell stops for those who use them. If we get no good follow through strength on Tuesday, or worse, a down day, we will know to be cautious and possibly to sell or hedge. Conversely, if the sector takes off and you haven’t bought, you’re left out and looking for a way to get in.
            Using HMY as an example, I would not sell or worry if there is a new low unless it exceeds the falling downtrend support line (black) on a closing basis…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMY&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p54721356497&a=985516989

    • On July 4, 2021 at 10:23 am,
      The Hedgeless Horseman says:

      Ho Bonzo,

      It’s a good question which is hard to answer. I do see Aurion as having a bit more margin of safety but that Firefox’s recent results are perhaps a bit more exciting than what Aurion currently has…. But it’s close and I might be wrong. I guess I am saying that I like both and that the risk/reward calcs are not different enough that I can see a clear “winner”.

      All the best,
      Erik

      • On July 4, 2021 at 7:04 pm,
        bonzo says:

        Erik, thanks. I own both but FFOX has more hectares and Quinton as a director, so I guess I’d give the edge to FFOX. Maybe you can learn more when you go to Finland. I went to Finland in 1977. Took a ferry over from Umea, then a train down to Helsinki, and then a ship to Stockholm. Did not find any gold in Finland. I took the train up to Abisko national park in Swedish Lapland at midsummer of 1974. Fantastic place. I’ll bet there is gold in the mountains up there. Have you been to Abisko?

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:37 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Advantage Aurion Resources(AU) : Drilling for gold discoveries in Finland

        Resource Opportunities: by @JamesKwantes on 24 Jun 2021

        – Drill turning at Aurion’s 100% owned high-grade gold targets
        – Dominant land position and JVs in Finland’s under-explored Central Lapland Greenstone Belt
        – On the doorstep of Rupert Resources’ emerging $800-million+ gold discovery

        https://ceo.ca/@jameskwantes/advantage-aurion-drilling-for-gold-discoveries-in-finland

  9. On July 3, 2021 at 10:55 am,
    Mike in Albuquerque says:

    Anybody have thoughts or are holding K92? It is doing very, very well. Wonder how far it has to go –

    Thanks!

    • On July 3, 2021 at 11:39 am,
      Exceslior says:

      My only thoughts on K92 is that I had an amazing run it in with about an 8 bagger in it from late 2017 through mid 2020, but I sold it too soon, as it clearly has kept running and running higher with stellar performance.

      KNT has excellent costs, 2 great deposit areas that are still growing, and it has been one of the standout success stories in the small to mid-tier Gold producers arena for the last 4 years. How far will it go, is like any of the companies in production, and will depend on if they can keep replacing or expanding mineral reserves with the drill bit, and also how the underlying gold price performs over the next few years.

    • On July 3, 2021 at 11:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      My thoughts on K92 is that I had an amazing run it in with about an 8 bagger in it from late 2017 through mid 2020, but I sold it too soon, as it clearly has kept running and running higher with stellar performance. I was worried about some of the government policies and pushing around of majors in P.N.G., and that they could spill over into other companies like K92. Fortunately for all that isn’t what happened.

      KNT has excellent costs, 2 great deposit areas that are still growing, and it has been one of the standout success stories in the small to mid-tier Gold producers arena for the last 4 years. How far will it go, is like any of the companies in production, and will depend on if they can keep replacing or expanding mineral reserves with the drill bit, and also how the underlying gold price performs over the next few years.

      I have now followed Bryan Slusarchuk (the former Co-Founder and President of K92 that was at the helm for much of their growth during the key years in 2016-2020 into his new venture, FSX Fosterville South which is exploring in the land all around Kirkland Lake’s Fosterville Mine. Hoping Bryan and team can have lightning strike twice. 🙂

      • On July 4, 2021 at 6:47 am,
        Mike in Albuquerque says:

        Thanks!!!

        When you are sitting there looking at a 6 bagger the urge to grab the money and run is strong but then again why sell a winner? Just wish I had bough more –;-}

        • On July 4, 2021 at 3:14 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, I clearly sold the winner too soon with K92, but like you mentioned, when you are sitting on multi-bagger returns, there is no shame in pulling some or even all the chips off the table, based on how one views the risk/reward set up, or what other opportunities one sees in other companies. Congrats on holding strong and if gold does get back in bullish mode later this year or the beginning of next year, and charge upwards to higher highs, then KNT should do quite well.

      • On July 4, 2021 at 7:09 am,
        Mike in Albuquerque says:

        Also, thanks for the info on Fosterville South. It is surprising that KL hasn’t done a JV with them yet.

        • On July 4, 2021 at 3:16 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, with Fosterville South, KL and Eric Sprott have key stakeholdings, but really it is still early on with their large exploration land package, and the upcoming few months should be informative on if FSX has hit some paydirt in their concessions on trend with the Fosterville Mine, and peppered around the whole Victoria Australia area play. We’ll see how it goes…

    • On July 3, 2021 at 12:41 pm,
      Matthew says:

      K92 has looked good for the last two months and just improved significantly with its new breakout. Good follow-through action next week is important and of course looks probable at the moment. The monthly chart is again overbought while the quarterly chart remains overbought and has been for the last two years without interruption. Both are pictures of strength and not cause for fear or “contrarian” action (selling), in my opinion.
      It has a strong balance sheet and free cash flow and is probably on the move for the right reasons given its per share earnings growth record. The main risk, especially short term, is probably the gold price and that risk has improved tremendously lately.

      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74953324004&a=946495703

      • On July 4, 2021 at 6:56 am,
        Mike in Albuquerque says:

        Thanks!!!

        I appreciate the technical analysis. The run this company has had is fairly amazing but when Mgmt has the right resource, does the right things and has a bit of luck magic can happen.

        And thanks again for the chart – it clarifies things beautifully.

        • On July 4, 2021 at 12:37 pm,
          Matthew says:

          By the way, I do not own it so I have no reason to talk it up. Good luck with it!

  10. On July 3, 2021 at 11:36 am,
    monty bissett says:

    I mentioned this 6 months ago. Wallbridge just put out great numbers next door to Detour 4.9 B Ca. KL acquistion and Eric S and KL both own significant shares of WM and share price down from inflated high of 1 Billion value to recent 400 Million. Sinc e Billion evaluation they have drilled and spent 10 of millions with a 170,000 meter drill program with fabulous results. Plus they are also sitting on 1.5 B dollars of high grade EV nickel only drilled to shallow levels and another 600,000 ounces of gold at Martiniere and all shallow drilling. For some reason I have never heard the name mentioned on Korelin. A Canadian company with a 170,000 meter drilling program and spectacular results. Eric Sprott owns 20% and KL a big chunk and yours truly who is biased owning a tad less shares than KL ES. So wonder why no Korelin exposure. Is it because of Sprott or what gives. MRE coming out in 3 or 4 months. Will need 3 or 4 million with great grade to be a big mover.

    • On July 3, 2021 at 11:54 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Monty Bissett. I also hold a chunk of WM Wallbridge, and agree with everything you just wrote, and have stated repeatedly I’m amazed it has continued to sell off as hard as it has with such great exploration results, a solid land position with multiple deposits (enhanced by their takeover of Balmoral), the large nickel asset (which they should probably spin out into a different vehicle or sell to another nickel company as it isn’t getting any value as-is in Wallbridge), and the large strategic stakeholders you mentioned. Obviously Sprott was very involved with Kirkland Lake, and Kirkland Lake is still busy digesting their Detour Gold acquisition next door, but their strategic positions highlights that they also have their sights on Wallbridge as well. Really I’d rather see Wallbridge recover in share price first and have a nice big run higher on exploration and development success before KL digs their claws in any further.

      As for why no exposure here on the KER it isn’t from a lack of asking. I’ve emailed Marz, Investor relations, and a few other folks at Wallbridge about 6 times this year asking if they’d like to come onto the show and update our audience with an overview of their projects and expected work plan for 2021 and they’ve never responded. If you have a way of connecting us with Marz, then please have him get in touch with me at shad@kereport.com, as we’d love to have them on the show.

      Cheers!

      • On July 3, 2021 at 12:39 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I think we mentioned KL., before it took off, got the info from KWN, .. and involvement of Sprott…

        • On July 3, 2021 at 1:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          For sure OOTB. We were following the whole amalgamation that Crocodile Gold went on when it was rolled up into Newmarket Gold, and then the next roll-up of Newmarket Gold into Kirkland Lake. We are often on the cutting edge here at the KER… Haha!!

          I believe the point Monty Bissett was making was about the lack of coverage of Wallbridge on the KER, but I just wanted him to know that it wasn’t from a lack of trying to get them onto the show. KL and Sprott have hefty strategic positions in WM, which makes good sense, because Kirkland Lake acquired Detour Gold last year, and Wallbridge is their neighbors with a big land package, huge and repeated exploration success, and it would be logical for KL to takeover WM at one point to further consolidate that district.

          We’ll keep trying to get WM on the show, but if anyone has a way of getting us connected it would be appreciated.

      • On July 3, 2021 at 1:24 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Ex and Monty, I own a boatload of Wallbridge at some nice low prices. The monthly charts reveal that the stock will probably be bottoming the next 2 months. I’m waiting patiently to add to my holdings in this stock.

        • On July 3, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          I might add that some good companies in addition to Wallbridge are not getting a bid and it shows how many have moved off the metals’ space after interest has waned. Interest will be returning but we may have to wait a bit. Volume is drying up as well. That’s often the first step when a sector has lost favor—-however, a lot of these stocks will assume a higher trading range then previous to the run up into August of last year. It’s just another consolidation step of moving higher in the future—-those under water will eventually be okay but they will have to wait awhile.

        • On July 3, 2021 at 1:51 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Doc. I may join you in adding more to my Wallbridge position if it bottoms in the next 2 months. Keep us posted when you feel it is in a good accumulation range.

          • On July 3, 2021 at 6:35 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, I’m going to add to my LUM.V position this coming week. I like the stability of the price and the very good possibility that they will be taken over in the next 12 months.

          • On July 4, 2021 at 3:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc – Thanks for the heads up on how you are trading and seeing the set up with LUM. Do you think Ross will consolidate Lumina into Equinox, or do you feel there is a better suitor for Lumina Gold’s assets and portfolio?

            What do you think the plan is with Ross’s tinier explorer in Ecuador (LR) Luminex Resources? It is in the same umbrella of Lumina companies, but I believe it was left separate for a reason to have it get rolled up in a more Ecuador-focused vehicle.

        • On July 4, 2021 at 12:29 pm,
          David says:

          I have owned Wallbridge several times and finally decided that other options might move a little more during positive markets. Possibly if we get more than a couple of months move it will catch on. We are fairly positive about Sprott on this board if there was any perception otherwise.

          • On July 4, 2021 at 3:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi David. I’ve been tracking the success that Wallbridge had expanding resources at Fenelon with the drill bit, but missed that initial rocket ride. I was a shareholder in Balmoral, and came into WM by way of that merger, and the have built upon the position as it has been trending down over the last year or so.

            I believe you are correct that maybe there are other more speculative explorers or even more established producers that will move more during positive markets. The developers, as a general group, have really underperformed the explorers and producers, and when they hit big drill results, the market seems to shrug them off, whereas if a smaller micro-cap put out the same results it would be up multiple fold. We’ve been seeing the same pattern play out when Great Bear, or Skeena, or Silvercrest and many other companies continue to deliver great drill results, and then the market doesn’t respond. That’s just the current environment, but over time, as all these companies expand their resources, then they’ll eventually get recognized for the great work they continue to do. Several of them are waiting on resource updates soon, including Wallbridge and Great Bear, so maybe that will move the needle for them.

  11. On July 3, 2021 at 1:06 pm,
    irishtony says:

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> CREEPY <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    https://youtu.be/ilhdXry9HMQ

    • On July 3, 2021 at 1:14 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      😱😧👻

      • On July 3, 2021 at 1:36 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        lol….. good one IRISH… 🙂

  12. On July 3, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
    David says:

    Great show and great articles and recorded presentations from many sources. Good way to spend a rainy day. Thanks Cory, Ex and others. Appears for the most part, contributirs are positive.

    • On July 3, 2021 at 1:32 pm,
      David says:

      Contributirs = Contributors

      • On July 3, 2021 at 1:35 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        contri but irs…. you must have been thinking something… lol 🙂

        • On July 3, 2021 at 5:48 pm,
          David says:

          That’s funny. IRS won’t leave me alone. It is because the i and o are next to each other.. but you might be right…

          • On July 3, 2021 at 6:27 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            :)…… never funny when they got your number….

      • On July 4, 2021 at 5:15 am,
        David says:

        The good news is they have never found an error in my tax returns. Also, about 10 years ago I hired a CPA to do them. I was investing in oil limited partnership and those were a pain at tax time. After using a CPA it convinced me keeping up with the tax code so I could continue to only pay out was a miserable activity. Etter to pay someone and let them suffer. Then my son’s friends were becoming CPAs and Lawyers and such, so I gave them another client and I played golf.

        • On July 4, 2021 at 5:19 am,
          David says:

          …. Hiring son’s friends was also a by -product of coaching youth baseball. They were more then willing to have “Coach Curve Ball” as their client. However, many did not like trying to hit a curve ball.

          • On July 4, 2021 at 8:40 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Sounds like an “inside” joke….. slider by me…. 🙂

    • On July 4, 2021 at 3:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks David, and agreed, we’ve got a number of great posts on this weekend show ranging from good thoughts, good charts, good articles, good videos, and a bit of comedy mixed in. Cheers!

  13. On July 4, 2021 at 5:27 am,
    David says:

    4th of July story concerning baseball, because I don’t have an apple pie story.

  14. On July 4, 2021 at 6:32 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Yes I’m still lurking in the weeds. Great shows as always gentlemen. Great pick up of Shad from the waiver wires to pinch hit. Hoping we get that next up leg soon in PM’s. Another sucky June for PM’s is over. Might be more to that seasonality factor after all. Only thing I can contribute is this interview that contains black wolf in it
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tmWy90m7E9Y

    • On July 4, 2021 at 2:09 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Wolfster. Glad you are still out there lurking sir. Yes, hoping we get the next leg up in the PMs after the summer doldrums as well, but a number of technicians and generalists
      that we’ve had on believe in their analysis that it make take until next year for the breakout move. Personally, I more constructive that the March double-bottom around $1673-$1675 will hold, and that we’ll see gold put in a “higher low”, base for a while, then continue to move up higher from late summer into the fall.

  15. On July 4, 2021 at 6:35 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Oh and in the EV sector might be getting a pullback in Charge Point after a nice run. Might be last time to accumulate in the $20’s if it pullbacks enough. I’ve been selling covered calls every 2 weeks as the premiums are great

    • On July 4, 2021 at 3:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks for the heads up on the EV sector Wolfster. Been watching both Blink and Charge Point for a good place to enter. So far I’ve been more focused on accumulating the junior battery companies during their correction.

  16. On July 4, 2021 at 9:38 am,
    Dickus says:

    Plunger,s weekend report on the Rambus site reiterates that we have been in a bear market rally since August 2920. https://rambus1.com/
    As Erik would say precious metal stocks will be sheep.

    • On July 4, 2021 at 11:11 am,
      Pyrite says:

      Anyone knows this person’s track record on gold/gdx? I have been following lots of folks and the truth is they are wrong most of the time. A coin toss would be more accurate than their predictions.

      • On July 4, 2021 at 11:49 am,
        CaliJoe says:

        Plunger goes according to where wind is blowing. Last year, he wrote a hit piece on gold when Buffet purchased Barrick shares. laying out why this is a paradigm shift and Gold going much higher. It was a nicely article but blah blah blah. So I take, above article is the same. More blahs.
        I’m tired of reading these so called experts. Nothing but mental masturbation

        • On July 4, 2021 at 1:53 pm,
          Pyrite says:

          Cali,
          I wonder if I should start a spreadsheet documenting all the predictions of such folks over the next few years. It will be a fun sentiment indicator. I have stopped listening and my trading/investing mindset is better. If gold closes over 1850, I guess he will be singing a different tune.

  17. On July 4, 2021 at 11:10 am,
    CaliJoe says:

    Just for giggles. Could it play out like NVDA?

    https://ibb.co/0YtCywF

  18. On July 4, 2021 at 12:49 pm,
    visitor says:
  19. On July 4, 2021 at 1:49 pm,
    Matthew says:

    After a 3 year $921 (79%) advance that terminated in a hockey stick move to a daily 90 RSI(14), gold’s correction hasn’t been unusual or hold bearish implications despite the collateral damage in the miners. By not breaking its three year, three point uptrend line, it has shown impressive strength but also the concern that the uptrend will still be broken. So next week is very important and must seal this low.
    Silver and the miners are on new weekly MACD sell signals but are sporting weekly bull hammers while sector kingpin, gold, has avoided that MACD sell signal.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p42036878155&a=877923791

    • On July 4, 2021 at 1:58 pm,
      Pyrite says:

      Thanks for the reply!

  20. On July 4, 2021 at 1:53 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Post covid crash volume has not recovered so it would be very nice to see it spike to a weekly 15 month high next week (or the week after if price holds up next week).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p95089711936

  21. On July 4, 2021 at 2:53 pm,
    CaliJoe says:

    Gary Savage has a response to Plunger’s article. GS lays out some compelling arguments.

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2021/07/is-gold-in-a-cyclical-bear-market.html

    • On July 4, 2021 at 3:55 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I first pointed out the great action in silver many months ago. Its outperformance of gold since gold topped in August has been significant and is a very big deal. As most know, silver typically underperforms gold by a wide margin following any top and especially such an important top but that didn’t happened at all this time. The silver miners, large and small, have even outperformed the big gold miners. This correction has been unlike any others in decades and the implication is nothing but extremely bullish. While gold has corrected, silver has chopped sideways building a big base from which to launch its next rise.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p73518148371

    • On July 5, 2021 at 12:49 am,
      DariusPL says:

      Makes sense but I think Gary might be wrong about gold’s 8 year cycle low at the end of 2015 – it was probably at the end of 2016 (EoY 2008->EoY2016->EoY2024)- it would also explain how deep this baby bull correction was. So we would have gold topping somewhere in the spring of 2024 ( which is also a bottom of 16 year cycle in the dollar) with almost a year to find its 8 year cycle low.
      Regarding silver – (let me add my 5 cents :))- In a PM bull market lagging silver can rise substantially even with flat gold (sping 04) and GSR crashing to the upside last year might give the fuel for this ratio to get to 50 sooner than we expect

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:27 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gary is using the end of 2015 as the 8 year cycle low because Gold double-bottomed in December 2015 at $1045.40, so that was the Major low in the cycle.

        • On July 5, 2021 at 7:31 am,
          DariusPL says:

          Well it was U shaped accumulation which is a stronger bottoming pattern than DB but does it really matter ? We have seen it in 2018 as well. Gold made almost the same pattern 20 years ago – low in 99 was lower than the one in 01 but the latter was probably a true 8 YCL (March 93 ->Feb 01->Oct 08). I think Tom McClellan shared this view in his article few years ago.
          It seems like an academic discussion but it is quite important for all of us invested in the sector – when are we going to see the next 8 YCL, will it mark the end of this bull market or will it power the ultimate slingshot move?

          • On July 5, 2021 at 2:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Personally I put much less importance on the number of years between cycles, and focus on price levels hitting key support or resistance levels, regardless of how long it has been. The Major Low was in December 201, so that is where most technicans from cycles proponents, to Elliot Wavers, to more generalist technicians start their patterns from. Same thing with all time highs in gold being $1921 in 2011 and $2089 in 2020, regardless of time periods.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 2:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            lost a digit there… can’t wait for the edit feature…

            that should have said: “The Major Low was in December 2015…”

          • On July 5, 2021 at 2:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The new bull market in Gold began at that Major Low of $1045.40, just like a new bull markets begin at a major low, and run until a Major High, regardless of time frame.

            Price is the prime mover on charts, not predetermined cycle time periods.

            What we often find with cycles proponents is that these equal average time periods are constantly being adjusted as “right-translated” or “left-translated,” or the goal posts get moved as to when cycles begin or end to force the pricing into these parameters of a set amount of time. The reality is that pricing will do what it does, irregardless of the time period, even if there are some rhythmic patterns that seem to appear. While it can be helpful to use cycles to gauge “typical” lengths of time, most technicians focus on how price and momentum indicators interact with trendlines, moving averages, bollinger bands, fib extensions or retracements, etc… For those to work properly as modalities, then the high and low pricepoints are key to use as starting points.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 4:10 pm,
            DariusPL says:

            Here it is – well Tom was spot on:
            http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan052116.html

            I am not a die hard fan of cycle theory and of course we need more advanced tools for short term trading but:
            1 Those long term cycles ( 8 gold and 16 eurodollar) help us focus on the big picture and contol emotions. Instead we have many newsletter writers crying now -“OMG gold fell 3 % more than it should/below fibonacci retracement – is it the end of the bull market” – I don’t know if its more funny or pathetic.
            2 Determining where we are now in this cycle will be crucial for identifying changes in market behavior – I think once we completed this cup and handle and move above 2100 in 1H 2022 we will change gold’s trading pattern to more 09-11 style – no sideways consolidations, just one sharp pullback and then another leg up. BUT that trading style will only materialize if we are 2 – 3 years from significant top.
            3 Bubble phase – I have to agree with Gary here – almost nothing works here BUT they do tend to last quite silmilar amount of time.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 7:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            In reading that McClellan article written in mid 2016, it looks like his call was wrong as we didn’t get a lower low in later 2016. The major low was 2015. Also he went right into the “left translation” explanation of the cycle (since the time frames didn’t match up correctly) and also admitted it was just a idea he was submitting and didn’t have enough data going back to 1975 to that time in 2016 to show it would be statistically relevant. He also patched up 2 different periods in the 6 periods he examined into “split lows” to adjust for the fact there wasn’t a good 8 year low.

            My takeaway is that trying to impose a predetermined number of years (like 8, and I’ve heard others use 7, but they are all arbitrary) on a market that doesn’t work that way and doesn’t play out in equidistant time periods between lows or highs, is not a modality I’m investing much time into as it clearly doesn’t hold up.

          • On July 6, 2021 at 3:33 am,
            DariusPL says:

            Well he spotted a significant low quite accurately half a year before it happened and he correctly admitted that with 5 observations we can’t make any statistically significant conclusions – but all long term gold investors knew that. We need at least 30 observations to do so – that’s basic statistics. So let’s be clear here I am not defending 8 YC in gold it is just a part of a bigger puzzle for me. Like I mentioned above IF this is going to be a typical cup and handle pattern it should top around the spring of 2024 – which is also a bottom of 16 – year eurodollar cycle. 8 ycl low at the end of 2024 fits perfectly here. But as said it is all academic discussion right now which can get invalidated pretty quickly. There is still some money to be made during this year in short term trading.

  22. On July 4, 2021 at 5:51 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The One Key To Fulfillment and Successful Investing

    by @Goldfinger – 4 Jul 2021

    “As financial market participants, or speculators, we should strive to tilt the probabilities in our favor as much as possible while always being prepared for worst case outcomes (risk management). To be a great investor/speculator some level of conviction in ones positions is necessary, however, there is an important distinction between confidence or a high level of conviction, and complete obsession/commitment to a one-way viewpoint. This sort of obsessive one-way thinking and analytical filter more often than not results in disaster when one tempts fate for long enough in financial markets.”

    “The most effective mindset is to carry out the due diligence and analysis necessary to generate a high level of conviction in an investment thesis, while also always being willing to be completely wrong. And most importantly, being willing to admit when one is wrong.

    “It is this last part that is usually the most challenging for human beings – on some level admitting that we are wrong about something, especially something we have staked financial resources on, is a tremendous blow to our ego. It is this ego attachment that is the root of all suffering in the human experience.”

    “The key to the human experience is to act like the results of the ‘game’ matter, and to strive for extraordinary results, while all the time being aware that it is all just a game. And to not lose our peace and forget who we are when the results we generate do not match up with our (often lofty and unrealistic) expectations.”

    “Never forget to smile and laugh loudly at how seriously we take some things in this infinitely transitory human experience that we call our life.”

    “The lover, the numbers on the screen, the win in overtime, and even the image in the mirror are ultimately all fleeting and can never provide us with a lasting sense of fulfillment. That deep sense of lasting fulfillment, that can only ever come from within.”

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/the-key-to-being-a-successful-investor-and-a-fulfilled-human-being

  23. On July 4, 2021 at 11:29 pm,
    Pyrite says:

    Does anyone have the latest DSI data for gold and silver?

  24. On July 5, 2021 at 7:07 am,
    Marty says:

    YOU AINT SEEN NOTHING YET UNTIL YOU LISTEN TO Craig’s TF METAlSREPORT.com JIM WILLIE INTERVIEW and the jaw dropping statistics that even astonished Craig like never before.

    • On July 5, 2021 at 7:57 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Now that is a PAIR………… should be entertaining.
      The Turd and the Jackass… Willie is a hoot… jmo

  25. On July 5, 2021 at 7:07 am,
    David says:

    Emerita had a good start this AM in Germany and Canada. Some indication of Reddit interest which is not necessarily a good thing as they hit and run. After a good poo up to 2.00 cad, the morning smash set in. However, daily volume started heavy. Emerita Resources.

  26. On July 5, 2021 at 7:09 am,
    Marty says:

    TFMETALS podcast entitled : SOME HOLIDAY FIREWORKS

    • On July 5, 2021 at 7:46 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      Gold update!

      ⏳ yawn!

      • On July 5, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        yawn…… was spot for today’s action…… 🙂

  27. On July 5, 2021 at 9:15 am,
    b says:

    This past week in gold
    Jack Chan
    Posted Jul 5, 2021

    Gold sector as represented by $HUI is on a long-term SELL signal.
    Long-term signals can last for months and are more suitable for investors.

    Summary

    Long-term – on a new SELL signal.
    Short-term – on sell signals.
    Gold sector cycle is down.
    $$$ We exited all of our positions with good profits.

    I dont like what he is saying, so much for that subsciption.

  28. On July 5, 2021 at 10:02 am,
    cfs says:

    Highland Copper closes royalty option with Osisko Gold
    2021-07-05 12:36 ET – News Release
    Mr. Denis Miville-Deschenes reports
    HIGHLAND COPPER ANNOUNCES CLOSING OF SILVER ROYALTY OPTION AND UPDATE ON WHITE PINE ACQUISITION
    Highland Copper Company Inc. has entered into an agreement, pursuant to which Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. has exercised a portion of its pre-existing option to acquire a royalty on future production of silver from the Copperwood and White Pine projects.

  29. On July 5, 2021 at 12:04 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Galleon Gold plunged today and now looks a lot more like all the big gold miners. I bought more.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GGO.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44313059610&a=947428706

  30. On July 5, 2021 at 12:18 pm,
    Poko says:

    Hi Matt,any idea why the plunge in Galleon?
    Someone on another board said it was options being exercised from March 30th.
    Unfortunately for me I can’t add till tomorrow (I live in the states)

    • On July 5, 2021 at 1:10 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Hi Poko, I don’t have any special information but I suspect that it is a combination of things and none of them are bearish. The first motivator might have been the fear that the other shoe was about to drop since it had been holding up well relative to most peers in recent weeks, large and small. Concurrently, there’s the healthy “greed” driven urge to sell the items that have held up to buy the ones that have been hit hard.
      These tiny caps can be heavily influenced by a single seller. One pushes price down half a cent and others rush to sell out of fear that it’s their only chance before it goes lower. A feedback loop ensues until price reaches a level that buyers can’t resist. I bet .085-.09 was that level.
      I live in the states but use Interactive Brokers to avoid the “pink sheets” or OTC listings and having my hands tied during any market closures that only affect one country.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 1:48 pm,
        Pyrite says:

        How do you hedge your portfolio? Do you have stops or use gdx puts? I am trying to understand how different folks manage risk in this volatile sector? Personally, I don’t have hard stops because this sector is too volatile. I take a 15-20% loss(mental stop loss)

        • On July 5, 2021 at 2:25 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I don’t hedge my speculative positions at all or use any kind of stop loss. When trading ETFs or other liquid items, I usually just sell all or part of a position if I believe the odds have changed enough to warrant concern. It has been awhile since I’ve used put options to hedge liquid long term positions but it’s a great way to go since the “bang for your buck” is so good. A little of that kind of insurance goes a long way.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 3:50 pm,
            Pyrite says:

            Matthew,
            Thanks for the reply.

  31. On July 5, 2021 at 1:18 pm,
    Poko says:

    Thanks Matt
    I will have to check out Interactive Brokers!
    In the mean time I will add to my position tomorrow if the price remains depressed.
    Cheers

    • On July 5, 2021 at 1:50 pm,
      Pyrite says:

      Stick to their webtrader or mobile app for trading. I find their desktop interface to be clunky and reminds of the late 90s.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 2:32 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Regarding their desktop interface, are you referring to the Client Portal or TWS Mosaic? I use the latter and like it because it. It is customizable enough to make trading quick and easy. I use IBKR Pro, not IBKR Lite.

        • On July 5, 2021 at 4:12 pm,
          David says:

          Thanks for this info on Interactive Brokers. I find their site confusing but I am interested.

  32. On July 5, 2021 at 2:28 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    I guess it’s a good time for me to look at taking an initial position in Galleon. It probably has a little more downside and then it’ll be “candy store time”.

    • On July 5, 2021 at 2:34 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If it drops another 28%, you might get it as low as I did in March.

  33. On July 5, 2021 at 2:29 pm,
    Glenfidish says:

    The mining shares right now continue to get creamed more so in regards to the small cap/juniors/developers and now the mid cap and large cap have joined the party.

    Let’s get the facts straight. Me and doc were bearish when the world was bullish in here and boy did we take heat. Plunger, rambus, Gary and many others were hell bent on going higher and I could just see it. In fact bob m and many analyst were highly bullish that the double bottom was the low but the miners were a different story unless you hand kicked a few. We spoke about this with doc and I understand it’s not the most popular thing around here because you classified as a bear.

    A few points of mention. I thinks Docs buying approach has been the best approach has been quite frankly the best approach as he continues to purchase slowly as we get slaughtered.

    Impact silver making new lows monthly!
    Brixton new lows monthly

    These are just two examples but the list is king in a monthly and why I understand the many questions of desperation asking Matthew what is coming. The bottom line is this, many of you better understand allocating money accordingly and never going in all in.

    I’ve stayed my position many times. The right shoulder would give and it did. I don’t trust that double bottom and I still don’t even though Matthew tried to talk me out of it. I respect Matthew plenty but many I can here there time are under water and the questions keep coming why are these miners bleeding on the monthly and when will it stop? They are honest questions and currently me personally I’m ok and doc as well. Matthew you seem to know what your doing but others? It’s a fall and very aggressive.

    Folks we could be in for a longer correction and as I said I would not be shocked if we get hit again breaking double bottom and finally putting and end in September low…

    Save your powder some of you are trigger happy and unless your buying with pennies ok but if your big player becareful.

    Glen

    • On July 5, 2021 at 3:00 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Some sound info. in the above………. JMO…….

      • On July 5, 2021 at 5:56 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        Jerry,

        I think I’m being reasonable when I say I’m quite fed up with these miners actions.. seems we keep getting the short stick all the while we are in a bull.

        Thanks buddy 🙂

        • On July 5, 2021 at 6:29 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Glen you have been….Very reasonable…… I would say……and I too am fed up…… this handle is way to long…
          thanks for all the notes and replies….
          Thanks Pal.. 🙂

    • On July 5, 2021 at 3:13 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Glen, you’ve misunderstood me all along. I have not tried to talk you out of or into anything and I have never said your targets were impossible. I also never guaranteed anything as you have repeatedly (like IPT to .46). My point has been that you become so fixated on far off possible targets that you ignore textbook low risk setups along the way. March gave us one such setup and now we have another one. You can buy here and reverse course quickly if we get a new low or you can buy higher when you’re more comfortable but you will be left with more downside risk and lose a good obvious sell stop.
      With all the weekly bull hammers and oversold lows, a failure here would obviously be cause for concern and such clarity is a good thing when taking positions.
      In addition, those bull hammers and oversold readings happened at clear support levels which adds to the clarity of the situation, i.e., a move lower here after last week’s strength would be very bad for at least the short term. That makes it a logically appealing place to buy since the failure zone is still nearby, pricewise and timewise.

      I’m explaining my reasoning, not trying to convince anyone of anything. I don’t care what anyone does in the markets.

      To be clear, this week COULD be a failure. The oscillating indicators all look bad right now but that is always the case a low. They lag price, obviously.

      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08821725127&a=940285795

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:01 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        Matthew I really appreciate your response and so does everyone else as many investors really look up to you, doc, ex and many others thoughts. You are highly praised but with that comes answers. I guess I’m very frustrated at this action. I can’t understand why brixton is trading down here and so many others when we should have been breaking towards. I guess what I m trying to ask you with your knowledge what do you think this is? Are we being naked shorted? And I guess how much longer cause doc believes very soon but two months puts us in September and it’s stressful to have to wait that long. I’m literally not buying anything not because I don’t have ammo just because I’m down to 4.6% and this shit keeps going down everytime I think the low is in lol.

        Do you have a chart that show something with the small cap/juniors on when they may turn and “if” when they do do you believe they will outperform the large cap?

        Thanks Matthew I’m just frustrated non the less this drop is long in the tooth

        Cheers

        • On July 5, 2021 at 6:53 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Explorers like Brixton are very hard to value accurately and even if one of us is able to, there will be countless others who disagree and many of them will wildly disagree. That disagreement brings huge volatility. That’s one edge of the double edged sword that is speculation in companies with so many unknowns and no revenue let alone profits. They go up and down with sentiment alone until they have a company-changing drill hole.

          So, it makes sense that large, easy to value miners often move first and move most at the beginning of an uptrend. Facts and figures hold up better than hopes and dreams when sentiment is poor. However, I believe we are probably approaching a run that will see the most speculative stuff finally take off in a way that will surprise all of us. Brixton hasn’t been so cheap relative to SILJ since 2015 and will snap back impressively once the market is satisfied that the sector has bottomed.

          USERX holds a lot of small caps and it has been remarkably flat since August. That’s a good sign for the tiny caps that we like.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p72727687772&a=947425347

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:03 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        By the way I agree 100% with what you said! I guess I just want to time the big move and hence why it’s frustrating.

    • On July 5, 2021 at 4:07 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Btw, I know of a few Elliott Wavers who are also sure that gold is going lower. Interestingly, gold’s P&F price objective is 1550 while GLD’s is 218 (implying roughly 2,180 gold). One’s bearish, one’s bullish which is consistent with the importance of this week’s action.

  34. On July 5, 2021 at 2:35 pm,
    Glenfidish says:

    Also ex,

    You have been bang on as well with your approach… You trimmed and have had open ears to everyone including doc not just the popular vote. I can’t imagine anyone even bonzo being all in right now since august high continuously purchasing a falling knife. I just don’t get it..

    Do I wish matthews predictions of going higher happen? Hell yes I’m under water in many of my purchases. But I’m also allocating slowly and have ammo which I will only use once we break double bottom. And if we don’t at least I didn’t go all in..

    Glen

    • On July 5, 2021 at 2:50 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Glen. I try to have an open ear to the bullish or bearish thesis in any sector at any time, to consider where my own analysis could be flawed or missing something key to consider.

      As for accumulating positions, I’ve always advocated getting positioned in tranches and then fading out in tranches, completely agree with the point you made about how investors need to:

      “better understand allocating money accordingly and never going in all in.”

      Of course, there are those rare moments were someone goes “all in” or “sold out” at the exact right time, but those are definitely not the norm nor are investors consistently going to nail tops and bottoms perfectly over time. Personally, I’m much more interested in buying near the lows or intermediate troughs, and selling near the highs or intermediate peaks, and will add another layer or tranche near each significant level to either average down or fade out of a position. More times than not, I’m not going to take a core position down below 50% and most often will keep it to 60-75% as the core position, and only swing-trade around that position with the remaining 25-40%. I have done some 50/50 trades though, and a few all-in or all-out trades, but the majority are tiered in and tiered out.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 3:09 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Most of the more heavily weighted positions in my portfolio have been traded dozens and dozens of time back and forth around a partial position, and over many various short-term and medium term peaks and valleys in a stocks journey. I’ve never understood the desire of some investors to pile into a position all in 1 motion, or exit all in one motion, unless there were very special circumstances.

        Impact Silver was a company mentioned up above, so that’s a good example to use. I’ve only traded Impact 6 times this year (but am watching to add a bit more on if it pulls back down more than at present), but did trim at few points much higher than other points where I accumulated. With Impact Silver I traded it 26 times last year, 5 times in 2019, 11 times in 2018, 22 times in 2017, and I don’t have access to pre 2016 in this trading platform, but I know I traded Impact a handful of times in 2016.

        The cumulative experience has been very rewarding far beyond any buy and hold strategy would have been. If I had just bought and held since 2016, I’d still be up multiple-fold, but I’ve made exponentially more money trading around the core position over the last 5 years.

        It is the same with any position really. With the exception of a few rocket ships that escape the normal orbit never to return to Earth, most resource stocks are very volatile, and have dramatic whipsaws with many short-term and medium-term peaks and troughs. These volatile ranges and bullish/bearish legs, are ideal for swing-trading and buying near low oversold conditions and trimming back positions near high overbought conditions.

        • On July 5, 2021 at 4:27 pm,
          David says:

          I have tried to do what Ex does and sprea it around and when a good one comes go partially in and out as long as they were moving. I had good luck with Great Bear, Silver Crest , Kirkland Lake, Vizsla and their success spread to others. Recently I came across the Emerita investment and noticed similarities with those I mentioned but the difference was the low price was coming from a legal issue and not the unknown of an explorer. Based on my experience with those mentioned, coupled with the apparent 10 month daily rotation of my 65 stocks breaking even all the time, I broke the pattern and reduced to my best 40 and overloaded on Emerita. It was a good decision so far, but do i trust the manipulators… heck no. Running happy but scare. The only thing that could make it better is to get off the neck of my other 40. Very likely they will go after Emerita.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 6:12 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Thanks david for letting us know about your approach. Risk management is big..I think I speak for many when I say it’s happen to all of us that you get into a stock at which you believe 100% can’t go lower and what happens? It goes lower

          • On July 5, 2021 at 8:34 pm,
            David says:

            Glen:
            So far Emerita has not gone lower. I bought in tranches to 15% of my portfolio. It has go e to 42%. My comment mostly meant that I think so little of the markets and Regulators that they will try to correct my progress.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:09 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        Ex thank you for your response.. It makes sense to buy in tranches which is a very smart book move well taught.. I agree with all you said and it takes risk out if the equation or at least minimizes it dramatically..

        Cheers

  35. On July 5, 2021 at 2:38 pm,
    Glenfidish says:

    Make your own decision and plan accordingly!

    Many of you respect me but don’t say a word and many more disrespected me and agreed my charts were upside down lol. Not even close..

    Be rational and realistic in your approach!

    Glen

    • On July 5, 2021 at 2:57 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Glenn, hang in there the best you can—look how long some had to wait when we had that long U shaped bottom I predicted after the 2011/2012 highs—-eventually, even though they bought high they were rewarded for their patience. This time you should not have to wait as long—-watch that 20 month MA of the monthly BBs. If we hold that the wait will not be as long; If we close below that a couple of months the wait will probably be longer but once again it will be nothing like the post 2011/2012 highs.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 3:56 pm,
        CaliJoe says:

        Doc,
        Do you agree with all these murmurings that PM stocks have entered in to a bear market? I remember 2011/12. I purchased large amounts of Exeter (XRA) shares in January of 2012.. boy, what a mistake that was! I averaged it down in to $1.2 area in following years but those were very painful years. I ended up making a small enough profit in 2017 when Goldcorp acquired the company. Since then I stay away from junior resource stocks.

        • On July 5, 2021 at 4:21 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Cali, we currently are in a bear but within a longer bullish pattern. You’re going to have these bearish reversals that will attempt to shake investors out; they’re painful but if you do your primary purchasing on pullbacks you don’t share in the angst of so many others. I believe this bear is nothing like the one we had to endure after the highs of 2011/2012 but patience will be a key again. I’m glad you were able to be patient with exeter.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 4:30 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Cali, I mentioned to watch the 20 month MA of the monthly BBs for gold—-here’s another nugget. Watch the relationship between the 12 and 26 month moving averages of the monthly MACD. As long as the 12 month does not separate too far from the 26 month as they move down together in tandem, the price drop in gold will be contained. What you don’t want to see is a separation like we saw post 2011/2012—that produced an almost 50% move down in gold from its’ highs; we shouldn’t see that happen this time around.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 4:32 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            Doc,
            That’s a great advice and I agree 100 percent. I purchased Agnico, a little of Barrick and HL a couple of days POST FOMC. I have dry powder but do want to deploy everything in PM sector.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 4:36 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            DOC, Thank you for sharing. I’m going to save your nugget in my NOTES folder. This is a great observations on MACD.

          • On July 5, 2021 at 6:20 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Re: “As long as the 12 month does not separate too far from the 26 month as they move down together in tandem, the price drop in gold will be contained.”
            — — —

            The MACD is “contained” by price; price is not contained by the MACD. One should only act on the MACD because of the implications of its movements as a lagging indicator. It shows strengthening or weakening in a way that is different than price alone shows but does not lead price. If the 12 and 26 period averages blow apart, it’s because price caused them to with outsized moves.

            The huge move down that mostly took place in 2013 got its tremendous power from the quarterly MACD’s sell signal. The 12 MA in that MACD peaked in Q3 2012 and was ready to cross bearishly below its 26 MA by Q1 2013. In other words, as I’ve pointed out many times here, the monthly chart is not the end-all be-all consideration. It had nothing to do with the plunge of 2013. That quarterly MACD sell signal was the first one in well over a decade and was the reason for the huge plunge that resulted in a cyclical bear market. In addition, the 12 MA of the yearly MACD peaked in 2011 and was pointing down by the end of 2012. It showed that there was even more power behind the drop than the quarterly chart exposed.
            The monthly MACD was on a sell signal since early 2012 had no hope of turning up as it had done previously following its sell signals of 2008 and 2007. The bigger charts reflect bigger forces so they are in charge, especially when trending.

            Today, there is no comparison whatsoever. The quarterly MACD is not only firmly on a buy signal but that signal has been fortified by this correction since the 12 and 26 MA have narrowed considerably and have done so without turning down. The yearly MACD is even better with its 12 MA just 18% above its 26 MA and both are pointing up. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 12 MA was over 90% above the 26 MA. In 2012, the year the 12 year MA peaked, the 12 MA was 80% above the 26 MA.

            Following the 2012 high, the yearly MACD never gave a sell signal but kept narrowing until 2018. By Q2 of 2019, the quarterly MACD delivered its first buy signal since 2002 and gold acted like it as it ran to a new all-time high in less than a year-and-a-half.

            Following last year’s peak, gold took 31 weeks to reach its low in March, the same number of weeks it took in 2008. Those are the longest gold corrections by far while the quarterly and yearly MACDs were bullish.

            Once again, if the monthly MACD becomes more bearish looking, it will be because price fell further.

      • On July 5, 2021 at 6:15 pm,
        Glenfidish says:

        Thanks doc I will take a look at what you said. I don’t think I’m alone when I say this is the longest correction in a very very long time.. what really is frustrating is you would think with all the lot k ganas we should have been going higher. I still believe the commodities supercycle is coming but when is it starting?

        Cheers

        • On July 5, 2021 at 6:18 pm,
          Glenfidish says:

          I meant money printing

  36. On July 5, 2021 at 3:12 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Sorry Glen……. been at the pool today…. 🙂
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5DajhNjSJE

    • On July 5, 2021 at 6:19 pm,
      Glenfidish says:

      Quite the pool Jerry 😆

  37. On July 5, 2021 at 4:08 pm,
    CaliJoe says:

    https://ibb.co/TYXZFL0

    How powers to be (and bullion banks) prevented a golden cross on gold. It was a well engineered attack to keep those technical traders away. Well they successfully pull it off.

    • On July 5, 2021 at 5:42 pm,
      David says:

      Not the first time they have unloaded a false paper market on the physical. If they would just start putting people in jail. It would fix it. It requires politicians that don’t benefit from fraud. Change the ekection laws where all political donations come from real people and not corporate people, you will see the agenda change to support the people who are protected under the Constitution. Instead they rather change the law. And yhe people keep electing the parasites that bleed corporations. Find out where your fake politician gets his/her donations. It will do wonders for the miners.

  38. On July 6, 2021 at 8:47 am,
    Pyrite says:

    Gdx is down when gold is up more than 1% ?

  39. On July 6, 2021 at 10:44 am,
    Matthew says:

    GLD pierced its daily and weekly P pivots (the weekly by one cent) before turning down to fill this morning’s gap. Those two pivots are rarely at the same level. This is the first time in three years. The falling 20 day MA was also resistance.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=11&id=p93313201870

  40. On July 9, 2021 at 11:21 am,
    PAUL MONTGOMERY says:

    New to this site. Just wanted to say – thanks for sharin everyone – and especially Doc.