Weekend Show – Sat 17 Jul, 2021

Big Picture Financial Markets – Thoughts on Bonds, Commodities and US Markets

Full Weekend Show

There is no doubt we are in the middle of slow summer trading. However we are seeing some trends in bonds, select US markets sectors, and commodities that need to be watched as we progress through summer. I feature a wide range of generalist guests on this weekend’s show to help us understand where the markets and money flows could go after summer.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. Be sure to listen to all the Daily Editorials and Company Interviews I recorded throughout the week. I hope you all have a great weekend!

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Rick Bensignor
Dana Lyons
Mike Larson

Comments:
  1. On July 17, 2021 at 6:48 am,
    Paul says:

    Looking for gold to recover to new highs, maybe 2100/2200 by end 2022, then another correction.
    That correction could be start of bear mkt if inflation is not consistent or stock mkt entering ressession, not crash but slow mkt turning down with lower highs and lower lows. Won’t get big bailout this time because damage Biden will have done with his blowing up national debt and killing if jobs, energy etc from free, free, free socialist spending.
    He will be known as worst president in US history and that will be his legacy.
    Just hope the Republicans can win back house and control polosi and squad which may have help ruin our economy not to mention put China well on its way to be number one economy in world.
    Hope weak Biden foreign policies don’t let China take over Taiwan and Russia continue rolling into Ukraine.
    This party will have every American standard of living and freedoms lost.
    Never seen in my 60 years of my lifetime our politicians on both sides so corrupt along with our big American companies not putting America first. Greed, money and power will be our Downfall.
    Wake up America.

  2. On July 17, 2021 at 7:21 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Been talking about WAKE UP…….. for years….. sheeple are clueless……

  3. On July 17, 2021 at 7:23 am,
    Thomas says:
    • On July 17, 2021 at 7:28 am,
      Thomas says:

      $280 million for an billion dollar asset is cheap

      Last financing in February was above the price that Ganfeng offers

  4. On July 17, 2021 at 8:27 am,
    bonzo says:

    Gary Savage just said $50 silver is a piece of cake, if not this year than in 2022 for sure.
    And then he thinks it will go to 200 or much higher. $400 silver would not surprise me.

    • On July 17, 2021 at 9:19 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      It was supposed to be $50 in 2 months—-looks like that’s not going to happen. Forget about this year for the PMs—-if the conventional market is about to head for a downturn the PM market won’t buck the trend. The next few weeks could be a tear jerker.

      • On July 17, 2021 at 9:54 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        The world believes conventional are going down and the longer the world thinks that the longer it will take before that correction comes. If you look at a monthly chart of the dow Jones it tends to rally for 2 years plus before a top and then downward path. If you take a look at the current setup we are about 1.75 years on a rally of the most recent March 2020 bottom. I think this rally as I mentioned over two months ago can proceed Into 2022spring before correcting or even longer. I’m more in the camp of US dollar down gold/miners up eventually and equities up as well. If we are to get a big sustained move down in equities I would think gold would correct from much higher ground not here.

        I think an important monthly low in the miners more specifically is very close but can drag until end of August/September then we will have our day. This cycle is not over it has been manipulated and speaks of fraud across the sector with short selling while gold is up. Hang in!

        Glen

      • On July 17, 2021 at 10:23 am,
        Nawanda says:

        Agree, but also wonder if we should lower expectations and maybe expect things to work out in our favor and 2023, not 2022?
        Doc, if we’re gonna be having a downturn here over the next three months or so, is that the time to buy-based metals and energy if you don’t have exposure yet? Could there be a mini recession in mid 2022?

        • On July 17, 2021 at 11:14 am,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Nawanda, I believe it is. On Monday, I’ll be selling a gas company that I have a 100% gain in since some commodities are taking a drubbing and I feel the energy sector will probably follow. I think the $CRB will probably have a short term to intermediate pull back. Once the effects of the stimulus wear off (and with money supply and liquidity dropping), this economy shouldn’t be able to stand on its’ own—the conventional market may be currently sensing that. If we get a slow down you can bet the FED won’t be talking tapering any longer and the money faucet in some shape and form will again take front and center stage. Glen may be correct it’ll take a little longer. A lot of the monthly charts of the PM charts still look awful and it’ll take a few weeks for this sector to bottom.

          • On July 17, 2021 at 1:52 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            DOC,
            I owned HAL, CLR and OXY since December of last year and sold this week. I wonder if commodity complex topped out in June of this year. I still think Trump is going to be proven right that under Biden administration stocks are going to crash. It is taking longer that’s all. When that happens, Fed would be again powerless just like during the Covid crash. Everyone thinks mining stocks would take a hit but I don’t think they would correct much due to less exposure with mainstream investing. I say this because miners didn’t correct much during Dec 2018 crash. I could be wrong though.

      • On July 17, 2021 at 10:52 am,
        DJ says:

        I’ve cashed out of most of my jr. gold/silver stocks, especially those that I have big gains on. Nothing worse than watching 100/200/300 percent gains evaporate like they’ve been doing now.
        If Gary Savage is calling for 50 dollar silver in the next 18 months, I say “good luck” on that call.
        Reminds me of like 8 years ago when John Doody said he thought gold was going to 2k in the near future. Took a lot longer than that. No wonder why you don’t hear from him anymore.

  5. On July 17, 2021 at 10:16 am,
    b says:

    Investment or imperialism? One of the world’s largest gold mines could’ve transformed Kyrgyzstan. Instead, it enriched Canadians

    Kumtor Mine, operated by Toronto-based Centerra Gold

    For authorities in the capital Bishkek, the allure of repatriating one of the mountainous nation’s few natural resources seems to be a win-win situation

    https://www.rt.com/russia/529278-gold-mine-dispute-canada-enrichment/

    • On July 17, 2021 at 6:37 pm,
      BDC says:

      Thanks … very interesting comments!

  6. On July 17, 2021 at 11:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    An important area of support for the HUI next week is 253 to 246.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37486571451&a=949257852

  7. On July 17, 2021 at 12:01 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Stocks are now clearly at least short term bearish. Those who look at charts but can’t see that should throw their charts away.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p22995774920&a=979061888

  8. On July 17, 2021 at 12:06 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On July 17, 2021 at 12:12 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The chart above proves that the majority of people think stocks are going higher. Stocks don’t make one new all-time high after another without a confident, euphoric public.

  9. On July 17, 2021 at 12:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Lumber is in an impressive 5 wave decline and is in the inverted blow-off stage…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24LUMBER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p90407269168&a=993534398

  10. On July 17, 2021 at 1:07 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold managed to finish above its important daily “P” pivot for three days in a row and its oscillating indicators remain bullish:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p85385996221&a=903805792

    • On July 17, 2021 at 1:12 pm,
      danny says:

      hi..
      thnks for the updates,
      has gold got to go up one year from today not before… ??
      these weakness are looking Like more sellers r in gold right now?

      • On July 18, 2021 at 1:02 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Hi Danny, gold will go up way before one year from today no matter what happens in the short term.

    • On July 17, 2021 at 1:15 pm,
      Matthew says:

      More importantly, it managed to take back its weekly P pivot after spending 5 weeks below it.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81550252265&a=993552267

      If these developments stick, our miners could turn up before most expect.

  11. On July 17, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The May/June failed breakout of XAU vs Gold easily explains the ferocity of the decline since. It is now down 17% and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends at down 20%.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80225134073&a=870811384

  12. On July 17, 2021 at 1:43 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The low for ASA yesterday was one cent above its 250 day EMA.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02813074993&a=982748961

  13. On July 17, 2021 at 4:37 pm,
    Chartster says:

    The conventional markets have probably seen their top for a long time. It’s finally time for the big tech monopolies to get the axe.
    The weekly gold chart is showing a big move coming. It’s rare to see the momentum indicators so flat. When they get flat, they build price pressure. Even the stochastic has been flat for a few weeks. The likelihood of the big move being downward is high. The monthly charts tells that story. Good luck to those holding PM related stuff.
    If you like shorting markets, the coming weeks are going to be fun. The markets go up on the escalator and come down on the elevator.

  14. On July 17, 2021 at 7:50 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold ran into MA and Bollinger band resistance which could easily account for Friday’s pullback (or at least aided the pullback if it was “helped” by certain price managers). Either way, the picture is not bearish.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p41355425092

  15. On July 17, 2021 at 8:07 pm,
    Matthew says:

    In the gold space, only gold avoided issuing a new weekly MACD sell signal. The weekly RSI-14 is also back above 50 and 3 year uptrend price support is currently about 1745…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39072283557&a=715024205

  16. On July 18, 2021 at 6:32 am,
    cfs says:
  17. On July 18, 2021 at 7:53 am,
    b says:

    Focus
    Gold to fall to $1,750 by year end – Bannockburn Global Forex
    Neils Christensen Neils Christensen
    Thursday July 15, 2021 16:23

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-15/Gold-to-fall-to-1-750-by-year-end-Bannockburn-Global-Forex.html

    • On July 18, 2021 at 8:03 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      b, what it all gets down to is what Bob M said, “NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING, learn to ignore the experts, the gurus, and other fools.” Right now I am currently in almost all cash and only day trade, in and out.

      • On July 18, 2021 at 8:20 am,
        b says:

        I really dont trade anything DT.

        Not even pokemon cards 😉

  18. On July 18, 2021 at 8:19 am,
    b says:

    https://youtu.be/5-JH8E_nPV0

    Is gold really an inflation hedge?

    Political violence’ or a recession, what’s more likely? Gold’s strongest drivers – Jeff Christian

    Gold really didnt do much for 20 years, thats a bit of a wait.

    • On July 18, 2021 at 1:01 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If you bought gold 20 years ago, you’re still up almost 100% versus the S&P 500 (after being up almost 700% vs the S&P 500 at the 2011 top).
      Gold tends to lead inflation by pricing-in a lot of it suddenly which then causes the appearance of it lagging inflation later. In the long term, it is clearly the best inflation hedge there is. That is, it is the most consistent and accurate at accounting for inflation of the currency/gold substitute in question. No, it does not provide the leverage that we all like but leverage always comes with increased risk that can cause us to massively underperform inflation. Gold carries virtually zero risk in that regard, long term.

      As of last summer’s high, gold went up 100 fold since the U.S. adopted a Marxist central bank and the reason is inflation and only inflation. Tyrants hate gold for its unstoppable natural accounting of their (always unsound) policies. Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler and FDR all banned their people from owning it and that speaks volumes. Why are they so threatened by an inert metal? Now you know.

  19. On July 18, 2021 at 1:30 pm,
    b says:

    Buying in 1980 you dont get anywhere until about 2007.
    Thats a long wait, especially when other investments were paying.

    From 07-12 it was obviously good if you sold in 2012 and bought again 6 years later in 2018, where we go next remains to be seen.

    I expect my grandkids will get what I have, then its their problem 😉

    • On July 18, 2021 at 1:58 pm,
      blazesb says:

      b. In 1980 I had a roommate in New York who had just finished five years in the navy on air craft carrier duty. Six months at sea followed by six months at port for maintenance. When in port he lived on board rent free.

      He had saved forty thousand dollars and put it all in gold bars purchased between $500-$800 in 79/80 when gold was at its hottest. I remember teasing him, a Texan, that a real cowboys fan would have bet the lot against the 49ers. That was the year of the Montana-Dwight Clark catch.

      We kept in touch for many years and i would always ask him if he still had his gold. “Yup…I’m never selling…its real money…essential with these politicians and central bankers degrading our currency.”

      He died too young a few years ago. An awfully good guy. Your comment about gold ‘Buying in 1980 you don’t get anywhere until about 2007’ reminded me of John.

      There’s a bad time to buy almost any asset.

    • On July 18, 2021 at 2:30 pm,
      Matthew says:

      There’s no hope for people who buy MASSIVE price spikes (blow-offs) in ANY sector, so that’s here nor there.

  20. On July 18, 2021 at 2:25 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Test

    422043 COVID19
    2197 UNK
    1044 VARZOS
    495 FLU4
    220 FLUX
    161 FLUC4
    136 PNC13
    111 PPV
    98 TDAP
    96 HPV9
    84 MMR
    75 MNQ
    69 FLUA4
    66 HEPA
    65 VARCEL
    62 FLUR4
    61 HEP
    58 HIBV
    47 DTAP
    44 MENB
    42 MMRV
    40 RV5
    39 DTAPIPVHIB
    38 DTAPHEPBIP
    35 DTAPIPV
    33 FLUA3
    23 IPV
    16 FLU3
    14 RV1
    14 HPV4
    14 ANTH
    12 FLUC3
    11 ADEN_4_7
    10 RAB
    9 TYP
    9 CHOL
    7 TTOX
    7 HEPAB
    6 FLUN4
    4 FLUX(H1N1)
    4 DT
    4 DF
    3 YF
    3 RVX
    3 HPVX
    2 TD
    2 SMALL
    2 MEN
    2 JEV1
    2 FLU(H1N1)
    2 EBZR
    1 VAX_TYPE
    1 PNC
    1 OPV
    1 MNQHIB
    1 MENHIB
    1 FLUN3
    1 DTP

  21. On July 18, 2021 at 2:25 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    422043 COVID19
    2197 UNK
    1044 VARZOS
    495 FLU4
    220 FLUX
    161 FLUC4
    136 PNC13
    111 PPV
    98 TDAP
    96 HPV9
    84 MMR
    75 MNQ
    69 FLUA4
    66 HEPA
    65 VARCEL
    62 FLUR4
    61 HEP
    58 HIBV
    47 DTAP
    44 MENB
    42 MMRV
    40 RV5
    39 DTAPIPVHIB
    38 DTAPHEPBIP
    35 DTAPIPV
    33 FLUA3
    23 IPV
    16 FLU3
    14 RV1
    14 HPV4
    14 ANTH
    12 FLUC3
    11 ADEN_4_7
    10 RAB
    9 TYP
    9 CHOL
    7 TTOX
    7 HEPAB
    6 FLUN4
    4 FLUX(H1N1)
    4 DT
    4 DF
    3 YF
    3 RVX
    3 HPVX
    2 TD
    2 SMALL
    2 MEN
    2 JEV1
    2 FLU(H1N1)
    2 EBZR
    1 VAX_TYPE
    1 PNC
    1 OPV
    1 MNQHIB
    1 MENHIB
    1 FLUN3
    1 DTP

    • On July 18, 2021 at 2:31 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Here’s a must-watch for everyone:
      https://vimeo.com/574328603

      • On July 18, 2021 at 3:07 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        That is another good one….. larry should be interested in this one… also…
        Since we talk about COVID on a daily basis…over in the other section…the orphan section… LOL .

        • On July 18, 2021 at 3:09 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Verifies…… what we have been talking about since FEB.22., 2020…. and before….
          really , starting in Dec 2019…… with the big HOAX….

  22. On July 19, 2021 at 6:57 am,
    David says:

    Are we part of a Fantasy Miner Stock Investment Club?

    • On July 19, 2021 at 7:39 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      What a nasty correction this is and and continues to be! Facts gold above $1800 second quarter earnings should be great and this fraud of naked shorting the miners to oblivion is incredible. Never thought I’d say this but maybe we go Into negative pricing with the miners like rates lol.. For example if it goes to a penny then they will short it to -1 incredible.

      Glen

      • On July 19, 2021 at 8:09 am,
        David says:

        CNBC trying hard to avoid the F word and blame the down markets on Covid. They can’t say The Fed.

    • On July 19, 2021 at 9:15 am,
      David says:

      Looks to me like the attack today is a disguised attack on miners. My account down 9% while Dow worst at -2.3%. Bond yields down. Gold only down .3% at the moment. Yeah…hit on miners looks bogus. Glad to see people making some quality buys. I have one I want to but it is up today. Figures. If it doesn’t get hit I will probably add more Emerita as it is getting trashed again which only means somebody wants cheaper shares than Retail Buyers.

  23. On July 19, 2021 at 8:14 am,
    Matthew says:

    It’s been awhile since I bought so much IPT, just got filled at .51 and also bought KTN at .21 and some BBB as well.

  24. On July 19, 2021 at 8:35 am,
    Matthew says:

    UUUU gapped down and then bounced to fill most of the gap but is still stuck at the 200 day MA. It is oversold but the weekly chart implies much more weakness ahead so and show of strength looks like a selling opportunity to me. The proceeds should go into the gold/silver shares in my opinion (not advice).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUUU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39624473284&a=857224779